NFL News And Notes
The Deshaun Watson Risk/Reward Question
Talking over the weekend with one team that has some interest in trading for the sidelined Houston quarterback (“Kicking the tires on it,” one club official said), it was clear that the sordid part of Watson’s story is not over, despite a Texas grand jury deciding Friday not to hand down an indictment of sexual misconduct against Watson. This team was just coming to grips with the fact that, though Watson will not be charged criminally, 22 women have maintained in civil cases that Watson engaged in sexual misconduct during massage-therapy appointments while he was the Texans quarterback. Watson has vehemently denied the charges and is set to testify Tuesday and answer questions about the civil suits. It’s logical no team will make an offer until they hear what he says.
Even after the presumed NFL suspension for part of the 2022 season is served by Watson, the teams interested in dealing for him—the Panthers, Eagles, Browns, Seahawks and Saints, reportedly—have to consider how much to factor in public reaction in their communities. Enterprising reporters wherever he signs will try to find and interview the women who have accused Watson. The sordid details in stories several massage therapists told to Sports Illustrated last year will emerge again.
Internally, interested teams will ask before making a trade: Is this the franchise cornerstone we want to hold up to our fans and sponsors? One club official told me Friday that Watson, coming out of Clemson in 2017, was one of the cleanest top prospects off the field this team has seen in recent years. That, also, will weigh into the decision by teams.
It’s an important question that every team considering a trade will have to debate internally. And then there are these three other important questions:
• Most importantly, which teams will Watson waive his no-trade clause? Would he say okay to a deal to the Eagles, in a very tough town, if they were interested? When Michael Vick signed there after his incarceration for dog-fighting, fans picketed and some never let it go. Or would fans be so in love with Watson’s talent that they’d let the past go? How about the Panthers, surely interested, with the thin ice coach Matt Rhule appears to be on? The no-trade part of the story is a legitimate question.
• What’s a fair price in trade? Watson is owed $35 million guaranteed this year, and you should not expect the Texans—after paying him $10.5 million to sit last fall—to contribute a dime to that $35 million. The acquiring team will be in line to pay all of that, plus per-year non-guaranteed compensation of $37 million, $32 million and $32 million from 2023-25. I think the price will start with at least three first-round picks, and probably some add-ons.
• Is he worth it? If a team can handle the off-field part, morally and practically, it’s getting a 26-year-old franchise quarterback who, in 2020, led the NFL with career-bests in passing yards (4,823), TD-to-interception differential (plus-26) and rating (112.4) on a bad Houston team.
Watson has the upside of a top-five NFL quarterback for the next decade. Some team is going to bet it can withstand the negatives of the next 12 to 18 months and look toward solving a major need with a player it thinks it will love in 2025, 2027, 2029
