FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
I'm thinking he ends up being 2nd pick of the draft...and unfortunately won't be a Viking.
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QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (2 Viewers)
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
If he were drafted as the 2nd QB would that be in the top 5 I would guess?
That means 2 other QB might be available instead.
Do you see 4 QB being selected in the top 10 picks? 4 in the top 5?
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
I'm thinking he is #2 overall. And he is my favorite QB coming out this year, so I could see the Vikings still getting one of the 4 but not McCarthy.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
2nd pick of the draft? I find that hard to believe. What a mistake that would be.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have heard the Falcons might be interested at pick 8 but if he did somehow jump the current top 3 that would be pretty interesting.
Should he be considered in this top tier or a tier of his own?
I see him clustered with Nix and Phenix but maybe that is incorrect.
I think there are 7 QB who teams may give a shot, could be 1st round picks if a team likes them enough.
Should he be considered in this top tier or a tier of his own?
I see him clustered with Nix and Phenix but maybe that is incorrect.
I think there are 7 QB who teams may give a shot, could be 1st round picks if a team likes them enough.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I would love it if 7 teams spent a first round pick on a QB. That would mean better players falling to the Colts in the first two rounds.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not saying 7 QB will be 1st round picks just that any of those 7 could be.
I am somewhat new to this idea of McCarthy distancing himself from Nix Phenix but maybe he has?
Thus my question of if he is his own tier or in the tier with the other 3 QB?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
One can dream
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Sure. It's very hard to know.
Maybe there are 4 QB in the 1st round but the other 3 fall.
Max Power
Footballguy
Caleb, Daniels, Maye, J.J., Nix, Penix..... and who else? Pratt? Rattler?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Lots can change between now and the draft, but Caleb, Daniels and Maye are all top 10 picks. I would put the over under at 4.5 qbs drafted in the first round.
4 is a stone cold lock, 5 is not quite a lock but highly probable and that's when the music stops is how I see it. I think there will be a gap between QB5(Nix) and the Penix/Rattler and think those last two have a stronger chance to go in round 3 then round one, though I think one or both eventually end up in round 2.
More I think about Penix I struggle to see a fit. I know Bruce Arains loves him and he is exactly his kind of QB but I don't think his skill set translates so well to the way football is played today. Specifically that he struggles big time when protection breaks down and does not work the middle of the field or layer the ball well. Add in the shaky medicals and I just can't help but see him falling. Throws as good a deep pass as I've seen, just to many other negative issues and I again I don't see a fit with respect to that's what teams are searching for.
Nix on the other hand is the opposite and fits a lot of the criteria you said you wanted in the Vikings QB. Quickest release of any QB in the draft(would have been second in the NFL to Tua), highly accurate, solid size and athleticism. He fits the mold of what I think a lot of teams are looking for in a QB.
My prediction is that Rattler will go ahead of Penix.
higgins
Footballguy
Would you mind sharing why you think JJ stands out in such a positive way? I don't watch CFB so am genuinely curious.
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
I just think that the combination of his:
1. Strong arm
2. Athleticism
3. Winning leadership
4. Age
are too much to overlook as a complete package.
I don't think the NFL scouts are going to overlook this. And although most casual fans don't see the "big numbers" like the other QBs, it isn't his fault that Michigan didn't employ some sort of "open it up" offense. I honestly believe that his ceiling is higher than all except for Caleb Williams, but I think his floor is much higher than Williams'.
Max Power
Footballguy
I can't imagine Rattler going in the first 3 rds. He seems like a long shot with upside type pick.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I find it odd how much Caleb has been credited for off-platform throws on the run, when McCarthy looks as good, maybe even better in that particular aspect. Williams may indeed look like a young Mahomes, but to my eye, JJM looks like a young Aaron Rodgers. I could easily see the NFL scouts picking up similar vibes and his name called among the top three picks.
To be clear though, these guys are neither Mahomes nor Rodgers. They are their own humans and could both totally flop. But tis the time for hype and projection. JJM's train added an engine when Harbaugh said he'd go #1 overall, and doesn't seem to be slowing now, so who knows how high he'll go.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'm skeptical he is an elite talent. Granted I only watched him three times this year. Against Penn St, Alabama and Washington. He didn't look good vs Penn State. Opened the Alabama game throwing a horrible pass to an Alabama defender that should have been intercepted. I was very down on him at that point, but he put together a good second half vs Bama and a solid Championship game.
I'm seeing him in more of Brock Purdy mold at the moment. He had the number 1 defense and a top 5 rushing attack. Those factors really do make life easier on a QB. He makes the right plays to win a game and plays great situational football. That shouldn't be ignored, but I would have liked to have seen more from him during his college career.
I'm seeing him in more of Brock Purdy mold at the moment. He had the number 1 defense and a top 5 rushing attack. Those factors really do make life easier on a QB. He makes the right plays to win a game and plays great situational football. That shouldn't be ignored, but I would have liked to have seen more from him during his college career.
massraider
Footballguy
I know the mocks all have Jayden Daniels to the Pats at #3, but at some point people will put the Pats together with the white guy from Michigan. Kind of feels inevitable.
massraider
Footballguy
I am too slow, shoulda known
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Jim is dreaming and hoping four QBs go before his pick.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Why. Who will drop to him. Harrison I guess but getting Bowers, Nabers or 1st OL is not a bad deal or looking for someone like Atlanta to come up to get ahead of Giants or another team. How far would he want to drop. #8 still if McCarthy went early. I believe he truly believes in his guy. Kind of amazed with his ego, he is not trying to trade Herbert and draft McCarthy himself. Getrid of contract and add quite a few resources.
rockaction
Footballguy
More Daniel Kelly? Oof.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
He’s got hot takes and certainly isn’t pulling any punches.
I kind of agree with him on McCarthy. I do not see it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I’ll not pretend I can forecast success or failure, because NFL GMs can’t. So because of that I sure wouldn’t give up much to find out. I might take a flier in the 3rd round of a rookie draft in a start 1QB league if I’m thin at QB.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Because they really want someone that would be chosen ahead of them. My comment was more of a joke however I a, sure Harbaugh would love to have his choice of all of the non-QB options (whether to open up more trading down options or mak8ng the selection. Maybe he believes in McCarthy but there is not a chance that he will be trading Herbert to roll the dice on JJ transitioning well to the NFL. They have a QB right now that looks like he could be a star with some consistent coaching and scheme. I do not think Herbert gets enough credit for what he has accomplished so far with bad coaching and a turnstile at OC.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
JJ could be Zach Wilson. That absolutely is the downside. Why teams are high on him are the tools and personality. He can make the most difficult throws on an NFL field and it's those flashes, combined with high level athleticism that have NFL teams seeing what he could become.
Nix feels like exactly the type of QB Sean Payton would love. I'm coming around on McCarthy as QB4. I still think top-8 is nuts, but 6 weeks ago I'd have argued 1st round is nuts, so things can change relatively quickly. I think Minnesota could be an interesting spot for him, especially if they keep Cousins, as I think McCarthy would benefit from a sitting a year, but 11 feels very risky to me.
Kinda feel the same way you do about Penix, where I think he's hard to see as a 1st rounder right now. Seattle would have made some sense to me in round 2. Throwing deep balls off play action to DK and co. but I guess I don't know how much their offense will change with Carroll gone. I think Rattler is quite a bit behind Penix for me. So much of Rattler's tape is just under 10-yard throws and screens. I'd probably even argue Rattler behind Michael Pratt of Tulane.
As of now, my QB ranks are:
Caleb/Maye
Daniels/McCarthy
Nix/Penix
Pratt/Rattler
I completely forgot they hired his OC from Washington and you'd think it would not be that drastically off from what he ran in college. They don't have a second but two thirds they can use to move up if he falls into mid second range.
Nix and McCarthy are similar to me in a lot of ways and I think for the most part if one fits a system so does the other guy and I've heard a lot of talk that both are fits in a Payton or McVay offense which would cover teams like Denver, Minnesota, Atlanta which makes that 8-12 range a potential QB hot spot and why I've been thinking McCarthy would go on higher end of that range when those teams start jockeying against one another.
Could see that. I do think Atlanta is unlikely to draft a QB at #8, and more likely to bring in a veteran like Fields or Wilson, just because they were better QB play/coaching away from winning the division this season, whereas Denver and Minnesota are likely looking up at KC, Detroit, and probably Green Bay at the moment. I kinda think Vegas and Atlanta are your Fields/Wilson spots, just don't know which is which, with Pittsburgh as a dark horse, though I could see them giving Pickett one more year without Canada.
I'm thinking Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Seahawks, and the Rams are your most likely rookie QB spots, with more outside chances of Falcons, Raiders, Giants, Jets, and Steelers taking a guy, perhaps a day 2 guy in the NY cases.
Also, think someone like Mac Jones could be a really interesting reclamation project for one of those teams with a clear veteran starter, like the Vikings, Seahawks, Rams, or Jets. Rams especially make some sense as they've taken on Mayfield and Wentz (at their lowest) in recent years.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Where it gets difficult is in SuperFlex Leagues. I think it's clear in 1qb leagues he will be taken late in the 2nd or even later, but SF will be interesting if Atlanta takes him. Would he be the consensus #7 pick in superflex drafts behind the big 3 at QB and WR? Or even higher surpassing Maye or Daniels?
Why just Atlanta. What is wrong with Minny, Denver or Vegas in top 14 picks. For SF brings up real thinking. In my home mocks the thought process will be who needs QBs in front. Because most leagues have fewer owners owning 1st round picks. My home league has 7 of 15 teams owning there 1st
one team needs everything but has picks 1-2-16-19. He might take QB with Harrison but also talk of Bowers
another team has 3-6-10-18-21. They own Stroud, Richardson, Young already and only other top notch player is LaPorta.
next team owns 4-13-15-17-22. Defending champ after undefeated season. No needs
next team is most interesting with 5-7-8-14 and Levis-Rodgers at QB and some young talent. Do they say, I am good with McCarthy at 8 and go Bowers, Nabers, Odzune at 5 and let the chips fall but that could be Maye or Daniels at 7.
9 picks has Lawrence, Fields but needs RB-WR depth
11 has Purdy-Cousins and like #9 but TE also
12 has Jackso—Love with WR/TE need
While McCarthy could land in top 8, I see champ getting at 13 and think many leagues could be like this. How many teams need QB as biggest issue. Certainly not my league. WR/TE always seem to be teams with biggest needs
But landing spot again is key
Are Minny, Atlanta, Vegas, Denver not better than Chicago, Washington, New England, Giants in the end. So could that drive up price of McCarthy, Nix or Penix over Maye or Daniels.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I just mentioned Atlanta out of laziness, I like their weapons.. Sure, Minnesota is a nice landing spot. I don't necessarily think Denver is, or Vegas for that matter.
massraider
Footballguy
Why is he a project with 28 games started?
Drake Maye: 28 starts.
We've had one year starters play as rookies, and he's been running Harbaugh for two years.
Drake Maye: 28 starts.
We've had one year starters play as rookies, and he's been running Harbaugh for two years.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
So the Vikings announcer says the Broncos love a guy when the Broncos pick at 12 and the Vikings pick at 11. And the Vikings are the current favorite to draft him.
Interesting.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Just out of curiosity, how much of a haul can the chargers get for Herbert? Take McCarthy 1.05.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Obviously time can prove this to be the wrong call, but there’s no chance I’d take any of those over Daniels. Although if Daniels lands in NE I’d probably just draft one of the WRs or Bowers. If he fell out of the top 8, I’d gladly give next years first plus something for him (in SF).
Like a high 24 1 + 25 1 + an all-pro caliber player on their rookie deal probably. his contract probably makes this not possible, but it is an interesting thought experiment anyway.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Atlanta - Bijan, 24 1, 25 1? Probably not.
TB - Kancey, 24 1, 25 1? Seems possible
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