Pt 2:
Sam Darnold (whom I slagged pretty hard last year when he became the starter) acquitted himself very well last year and may have turned a corner in his career after years of not being able to put things together for any sustained stretches. He had that one good half year in Carolina then poof. Good for him. Interior pressure killed him those last couple of weeks so hopefully Seattle can address that and he can continue to find success.
MIN also lost their best interior OL player and had several others banged up IIRC.
The pressure rate increased exponentially from what Darnold had during the season, and facing playoff teams who were better / faster than “the average opponent” didn’t help there either.
Not an excuse for Darnold turtling - he made plenty of bad plays and didn’t overcome those challenges - but I believe you are oversimplifying things when you ignore those factors.
As for SEA, they tried and failed to shore up their interior line in FA, but did take a shot or 2 in the draft. And they have Kupp/JSN/Fant which is a far cry from Jetta/Addison/Hock. (I’ll note that Hock’s absence didn’t hurt Darnold much at all)
I expect Darnold to fall off from his production in MIN, but be better than what he was in NYJ or CAR. He is a better QB now than he was then. And honestly I was optimistic about Darnold last year based on SF binging him in as a backup, trusting that coaching knew better than I what Darnold’s upside was.
All I'm saying is it's way too early to know.
On this we completely agree.
But FF isn’t always a game of knowing - especially when trying to gain a competitive advantage. If I’m in SF leagues I’m trying to buy cheaper on player I *believe* have upside that exceeds their value.
Like last preseason when I bought Darnold for Howell + a 3rd in a 16-teamer. I was in the LCG because of that move. I don’t miss Howell or the 3rd at all.
I didn’t know Darnold would give me 4300/35, but I felt his production in that environment, with KOC, Jetta, Addison, & Hock could potentially exceeded what his perceived value was by a lot.
In that case I was right. I’ve been wrong plenty of times with guesses like that, but I memory hole those so that I remain brilliant - in my own mind I am batting 1000.
(Except when I look at Kyle Pitts on the team I traded a still-good DHop for 1.08 to take him. Then I feel dumb all over again)
We're here playing fantasy football. If you think ADP is sleeping on JJM, good for you and I wish you luck. I'm fine with reaching a little because I think there's some nice upside. But it's not as if there's no upside for Geno or Tua, Maye, Stafford, T Law or whoever you're passing up
Again, you’ll get no argument from me there either.
All those QBs could be value buys (except TLaw whose value seems to be the same however bad or hurt he is. I dealt an injured TLaw for Baker last year before the playoffs, and somehow got 4.01 and 5.01 back with him despite Baker being a much better FF QB. The dream never dies for some guys)
But you said something about the “fairy dust wearing off” and it seems clear now that what you meant was that it wore off for Darnold, so you don’t trust JJM. Is that accurate? That’s what I was confused about and yet you didn’t actually answer my question.
if so it seems a little odd to downgrade JJM based on anything Sam Darnold did down the stretch, when his OL was decimated against playoff defenses. I don’t believe that is a logical way to approach JJM’s value.
But we’re way closer on this than we are in disagreement.
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