QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (5 Viewers)

[zamboni]

I've been noticing the disparity between McCarthy's ADP and his Footballguys projection. I wrote about it in this week's Fantasy Notebook (it's available free on the site).

Here's the pertinent portion:

McCarthy is projected to finish as QB12, ahead of players like Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and others.

McCarthy is being drafted, however, as QB19 in the 11th round, well after all the other quarterbacks listed above.

I made my case on this in the article. I'm wondering where you stand on it? Is this a value you're looking to leverage as a potentially high-upside QB2? Or best to take a wait-and-see approach?

I think he’s a great option as QB2 in one QB leagues as long as you have a strong QB1. I have him as my QB2 in my main superflex keeper league alongside Josh Allen but am going to draft a safer QB3 in case JJ struggles out of the gate.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I've been noticing the disparity between McCarthy's ADP and his Footballguys projection. I wrote about it in this week's Fantasy Notebook (it's available free on the site).

Here's the pertinent portion:

McCarthy is projected to finish as QB12, ahead of players like Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and others.

McCarthy is being drafted, however, as QB19 in the 11th round, well after all the other quarterbacks listed above.

I made my case on this in the article. I'm wondering where you stand on it? Is this a value you're looking to leverage as a potentially high-upside QB2? Or best to take a wait-and-see approach?

Last year I aggressively traded into the 1st round in a 16-team SF where I had a ready to win team that only had 1 QB.

I was high on JJM & the situation he was going into. I then dealt for Darnold on the cheap figuring it might be wise to handcuff a rookie QB in case he developed slowly. Lucky break.

So I agree his ADP hasn’t quite caught up to his projected value. I planned on making him my QB2 in a SF start-up draft I just did, but a league mate grabbed him at 4.05 — I expected him to make it to the 5th. So it seems like people are wising up to his potential value a bit. I expect his ADP to climb as people start seeing him in the preseason.

 

[FootballDiehard]

Up to this point, I haven’t made an effort to land him. But I definitely talked myself into some shares as I looked into it.

 

[Saint]

I’ve been stacking him with JJ in best ball. Beast stack 2025.

 

[FootballDiehard]

I’ve been stacking him with JJ in best ball. Beast stack 2025.

Agreed.

 

[Biabreakable]

I've been noticing the disparity between McCarthy's ADP and his Footballguys projection. I wrote about it in this week's Fantasy Notebook (it's available free on the site).

Here's the pertinent portion:

McCarthy is projected to finish as QB12, ahead of players like Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, and others.

McCarthy is being drafted, however, as QB19 in the 11th round, well after all the other quarterbacks listed above.

I made my case on this in the article. I'm wondering where you stand on it? Is this a value you're looking to leverage as a potentially high-upside QB2? Or best to take a wait-and-see approach?

Yes scroll back. We've been discussing exactly this since May.

 

[nittanylion]

@FootballDiehard , great to see you here, engaging in the Forum!

@Joe Bryant

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@FootballDiehard , great to see you here, engaging in the Forum!

@Joe Bryant

@Dave Kluge puttin in work on the Kendre Miller topic, too.

We post among FF nobility.

 

[FootballDiehard]

@FootballDiehard , great to see you here, engaging in the Forum!

@Joe Bryant

I'm looking to get back in the swing of things. Time is always an issue, but I like to stay connected to players and this is a great way to do that.

 

[Joe Bryant]

@FootballDiehard , great to see you here, engaging in the Forum!

@Joe Bryant

@Dave Kluge puttin in work on the Kendre Miller topic, too.

We post among FF nobility.

We're all in this together.

I'm encouraging the staff to do more here and making it a priority. I think it's a good thing all around.

 

[rockaction]

Damn, I am regretting trading this guy for Josh Allen in a ten-teamer with enormous QB weight (.1 per 10 pass yds., -4.5 int, 6 pt. TD pass) but I didn’t have to give up too much (Aiyuk, Pacheco, 2.xx next year). This kid just seems like he’s golden and blessed with not only talent but surrounding cast and coach to boot. OL and WR look solid.

 

[Dave Kluge]

@FootballDiehard , great to see you here, engaging in the Forum!

@Joe Bryant

@Dave Kluge puttin in work on the Kendre Miller topic, too.

We post among FF nobility.

We are all just football lovers. I've been lurking for years, but was too afraid to dip my toes in the waters. But I'll be making a more concerted effort going forward. I like the level of conversation here. I cut my teeth in mid-2000s /r/fantasyfootball threads and the vibes here are similar.

 

[Faust]

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy chasing 'constant improvement' during rough patches in training camp

 

[FootballDiehard]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

That’s pretty close to as big a range as is possible

 

[King of the Jungle]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

That’s pretty close to as big a range as is possible

Yeah, not sure that is a real positive assessment there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

That’s pretty close to as big a range as is possible

Yeah, not sure that is a real positive assessment there.

Sportswriters like painting with a broad brush.

I took it to mean he “doesn’t suck”, or is “better than backup QB” level of talent.

But I’m an optimist like that. From the observational commentary it sounds like JJM is a hard worker, and takes responsibility.

My other take-aways are that
• the Vikings defense is no joke, and they’re throwing everything they can at JJM.
• he’s throwing to backups. No JJM, no Addison.
• football is a game of timing, which takes reps. Pro football is a faster game, so JJM will be taking some lumps in camp/preseason.
• ownership - JJM was very self-deprecating, and not in a modest or bashful way - he was critical of himself, identified his deficiencies and went on to say how there were good things on tape he can take away from the experience. That’s the absolutely correct mindset.

So yeah, good with the bad here, but that’s a dumb pull quote. “Well he’s not Peyton Manning, but he isn’t Jamarcus Russell either”. - gee thanks. lol

 

[Biabreakable]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

Coller has been one of my favorite Vikings journalists for a long time, since he was with ESPN. Good choice and thanks for having him on your show.

He is pretty anti hot take as you get from his comments here. He has had several guests on his show more bullish about McCarthy than he's ever been.

That's part of what I like about him. He just tells you what he sees. There isn't a lot of embellishment.

If you have time try to get Arif Hasan on your show. He's great too.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

That’s pretty close to as big a range as is possible

Yeah, not sure that is a real positive assessment there.

Sportswriters like painting with a broad brush.

I took it to mean he “doesn’t suck”, or is “better than backup QB” level of talent.

But I’m an optimist like that. From the observational commentary it sounds like JJM is a hard worker, and takes responsibility.

My other take-aways are that
• the Vikings defense is no joke, and they’re throwing everything they can at JJM.
• he’s throwing to backups. No JJM, no Addison.
• football is a game of timing, which takes reps. Pro football is a faster game, so JJM will be taking some lumps in camp/preseason.
• ownership - JJM was very self-deprecating, and not in a modest or bashful way - he was critical of himself, identified his deficiencies and went on to say how there were good things on tape he can take away from the experience. That’s the absolutely correct mindset.

So yeah, good with the bad here, but that’s a dumb pull quote. “Well he’s not Peyton Manning, but he isn’t Jamarcus Russell either. - gee thanks. lol

He is essentially a rookie, so I am not overly concerned at this point. Like you said, not really a negative comment…just not glowing. I have gone from really high on his prospects to moderately high (nothing to do with that comment). I think the Vikings will ease him in this year which makes sense with a strong defense and an improved rushing attack. I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I’ll plant my flag, we are in for a big growing pains year and he’s going to make JJ more in line with a high second round pic

 

[Ilov80s]

Had Purple Insider's Matthew Coller on my radio show tonight. He said McCarthy's accuracy and ability to handle opposing pass rushers are works in progress, but he's on track. Specifically, Coller told us: "He's not the next Joe Montana, but he's not the next Kyle Boller, either."

That’s pretty close to as big a range as is possible

Yeah, not sure that is a real positive assessment there.

Sportswriters like painting with a broad brush.

I took it to mean he “doesn’t suck”, or is “better than backup QB” level of talent.

But I’m an optimist like that. From the observational commentary it sounds like JJM is a hard worker, and takes responsibility.

My other take-aways are that
• the Vikings defense is no joke, and they’re throwing everything they can at JJM.
• he’s throwing to backups. No JJM, no Addison.
• football is a game of timing, which takes reps. Pro football is a faster game, so JJM will be taking some lumps in camp/preseason.
• ownership - JJM was very self-deprecating, and not in a modest or bashful way - he was critical of himself, identified his deficiencies and went on to say how there were good things on tape he can take away from the experience. That’s the absolutely correct mindset.

So yeah, good with the bad here, but that’s a dumb pull quote. “Well he’s not Peyton Manning, but he isn’t Jamarcus Russell either. - gee thanks. lol

He is essentially a rookie, so I am not overly concerned at this point. Like you said, not really a negative comment…just not glowing. I have gone from really high on his prospects to moderately high (nothing to do with that comment). I think the Vikings will ease him in this year which makes sense with a strong defense and an improved rushing attack. I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one.

He is essentially a rookie but he isn't which does make me nervous for him. I think fans will have higher expectations just because it is year 2 but also because of how well Darnold did. It creates this perception that any QB can step in and throw 30+ TDs in this offense and if he struggles with typical rookie growing pains, the rumblings that Vikings messed up choosing him over Darnold are going to start.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’ll plant my flag, we are in for a big growing pains year and he’s going to make JJ more in line with a high second round pic

Somewhat safe flag plant. Not well suited for the bold predictions gut flags topic.


I’m with you up to the JJ part. He’s QB-proof IMO. And JJM has a good deep ball so that bodes well.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I’ll plant my flag, we are in for a big growing pains year and he’s going to make JJ more in line with a high second round pic

Somewhat safe flag plant. Not well suited for the bold predictions gut flags topic.


I’m with you up to the JJ part. He’s QB-proof IMO. And JJM has a good deep ball so that bodes well.

lol I rewrote my post so I agree.. my real flag plant is he stinks overall and lost a development year. The line and the coach may offer some lift but not as much as he is an anchor

 

[FootballDiehard]

Key points from Hot Sauce Guy:

Sportswriters like painting with a broad brush.

I took it to mean he “doesn’t suck”, or is “better than backup QB” level of talent.

My other take-aways are that
• the Vikings defense is no joke, and they’re throwing everything they can at JJM.
• he’s throwing to backups. No JJM, no Addison.

 

[Deamon]

He is essentially a rookie but he isn't which does make me nervous for him. I think fans will have higher expectations just because it is year 2 but also because of how well Darnold did. It creates this perception that any QB can step in and throw 30+ TDs in this offense and if he struggles with typical rookie growing pains, the rumblings that Vikings messed up choosing him over Darnold are going to start.

lol I rewrote my post so I agree.. my real flag plant is he stinks overall and lost a development year. The line and the coach may offer some lift but not as much as he is an anchor

Agree. Don't even think he is the starter for long.

 

[Ilov80s]

He is essentially a rookie but he isn't which does make me nervous for him. I think fans will have higher expectations just because it is year 2 but also because of how well Darnold did. It creates this perception that any QB can step in and throw 30+ TDs in this offense and if he struggles with typical rookie growing pains, the rumblings that Vikings messed up choosing him over Darnold are going to start.

lol I rewrote my post so I agree.. my real flag plant is he stinks overall and lost a development year. The line and the coach may offer some lift but not as much as he is an anchor

Agree. Don't even think he is the starter for long.

Oh gosh please tell you aren't thee poster who thinks that one random NFL journeyman is about to be the Vikings savior

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Oh gosh please tell you aren't thee poster who thinks that one random NFL journeyman is about to be the Vikings savior

He planted that flag a couple pages ago IIRC, yes.

 

[Deamon]

He is essentially a rookie but he isn't which does make me nervous for him. I think fans will have higher expectations just because it is year 2 but also because of how well Darnold did. It creates this perception that any QB can step in and throw 30+ TDs in this offense and if he struggles with typical rookie growing pains, the rumblings that Vikings messed up choosing him over Darnold are going to start.

lol I rewrote my post so I agree.. my real flag plant is he stinks overall and lost a development year. The line and the coach may offer some lift but not as much as he is an anchor

Agree. Don't even think he is the starter for long.

Oh gosh please tell you aren't thee poster who thinks that one random NFL journeyman is about to be the Vikings savior

Book it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Book it.

Kidos for the bold flag plant at least.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

 

[smbkrypt24]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

Just to respond here. My no doubt locks above JJM:
Lamar, Allen, Burrow, Hurts, Daniels, Mahommes, Nix, Herbert, and Stroud.

Then my preference:
Caleb, Drake, Love, Purdy, Murray, Mayfield, Goff, and Dak.

I believe these should be ranked higher in dynasty.
If we are talking just this year I would swap some names around and JJM may finish higher than a couple of them. Maybe.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

I was actually speaking only to 2025 value. I see JJM’s future value as a higher ranked player.

Great QB minded coach, elite weapons, solid arm talent and work ethic. It’s a good combo.

Push back all ya like. Free country and all.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I’ve been stacking him with JJ in best ball. Beast stack 2025.

I have JJ in a keeper best ball, plan on doing the same as hopefully my QB 2.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

I was actually speaking only to 2025 value. I see JJM’s future value as a higher ranked player.

Great QB minded coach, elite weapons, solid arm talent and work ethic. It’s a good combo.

Push back all ya like. Free country and all.

So who is behind JJM?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So who is behind JJM?

Sorry, I’m working at the moment.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

I was actually speaking only to 2025 value. I see JJM’s future value as a higher ranked player.

Great QB minded coach, elite weapons, solid arm talent and work ethic. It’s a good combo.

Push back all ya like. Free country and all.

I don't really think "ranking" JJ makes sense. You look at his ADP, see if it is palatable for you. If it is and the draft falls in a way where in his range you need upside at the QB position, than he is someone you should consider drafting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

I was actually speaking only to 2025 value. I see JJM’s future value as a higher ranked player.

Great QB minded coach, elite weapons, solid arm talent and work ethic. It’s a good combo.

Push back all ya like. Free country and all.

I don't really think "ranking" JJ makes sense. You look at his ADP, see if it is palatable for you. If it is and the draft falls in a way where in his range you need upside at the QB position, than he is someone you should consider drafting.

I think you’re spot on with JJM. I have him “ranked” where I do because his ADP for redraft is friendly. Sure, there might be a couple guys in redraft who end up better - not saying anything is set in stone. But I’m a QB free fall guy in 1 QB leagues like my home league.

In dynasty SF I like his talent/age/opportunity combo.

but I do actually believe he’ll be a very productive player this year. JJ/Addison/Hock are a nice set of weapons.

So who is behind JJM?

Personally I’m not as sold on Nix as the majority seems to be. I could be wrong but I have him lower than you do on that list. I think he could out-perform Caleb, too.

Goff will have some spike games, but also some meh games, just like he always does. With Gibbs / Monty sometimes getting all the TDs it can be tough on a QB.

I believe Purdy will likely outperform JJM this year. The FF community seems to be underrating him substantially. Your placement of him seems low to me, but we all got our thoughts.

I’m also not as sold on Caleb. He might be the truth. He might not be. I could see a scenario where JJM outperforms Caleb.

Fields & Love are very different animals - I’m not sure Fields is a starting QB in 2 years, so for dynasty my answer is much different than for redraft. Love, to me, is showing some of his flaws - he’s jittery under pressure, doesn’t have a true alpha receiver, and his coach LOVES to run in the RZ. Like they’ll hand the ball to Jacobs 4 straight times from the 5 if they have to. I have JJM above Love. I know this puts me on an island. Most have Love as an ascending talent. Im unconvinced.

Now, am I “confident” that JJM is the QB14? No, I’m not. But I’m confident that he’s my target in the ADP range I’m looking to grab a couple of upside QBs to play the matchups with.

And I was confident enough to deal Puka for some picks, a LB1, and JJM during the rookie draft. So I’m hopeful - like I said before, love the talent, system, and weapons. Kid still has to produce. But I do believe my ranking is fair.

And again, you’re welcome to believe otherwise. It’s what makes conversations interesting.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think top 15 from an FF standpoint is more realistic than top 10 for year one

that’s been my position all along - I had him as roughly QB 14 for FF, with upside for more.

So - mind if I push back here.

Now maybe you're speaking from a dynasty perspective. But I'd also think that if that were the case, then QB's in their late 20's shouldn't be a concern when weighing long term outlooks. So thinking just for say 2025, if I'm counting 13 QB's I'd rather have, they'd go like this.

Lamar
Allen
Burrow
Hurts
Jayden
Mahomes
Nix
Caleb
Baker
Kyler
Brock
Dak
Drake

I haven't even gotten to Love, Herbert, Goff, Purdy, Fields...and mind you aside from the Top 5-6 that are just embedded in my mind, I just started listing. I haven't been tracking JJM too closely, but where is this confidence of a QB14 rating coming from?

I was actually speaking only to 2025 value. I see JJM’s future value as a higher ranked player.

Great QB minded coach, elite weapons, solid arm talent and work ethic. It’s a good combo.

Push back all ya like. Free country and all.

I don't really think "ranking" JJ makes sense. You look at his ADP, see if it is palatable for you. If it is and the draft falls in a way where in his range you need upside at the QB position, than he is someone you should consider drafting.

I think you’re spot on with JJM. I have him “ranked” where I do because his ADP for redraft is friendly. Sure, there might be a couple guys in redraft who end up better - not saying anything is set in stone. But I’m a QB free fall guy in 1 QB leagues like my home league.

In dynasty SF I like his talent/age/opportunity combo.

but I do actually believe he’ll be a very productive player this year. JJ/Addison/Hock are a nice set of weapons.

So who is behind JJM?

Personally I’m not as sold on Nix as the majority seems to be. I could be wrong but I have him lower than you do on that list. I think he could out-perform Caleb, too.

Goff will have some spike games, but also some meh games, just like he always does. With Gibbs / Monty sometimes getting all the TDs it can be tough on a QB.

I believe Purdy will likely outperform JJM this year. The FF community seems to be underrating him substantially. Your placement of him seems low to me, but we all got our thoughts.

I’m also not as sold on Caleb. He might be the truth. He might not be. I could see a scenario where JJM outperforms Caleb.

Fields & Love are very different animals - I’m not sure Fields is a starting QB in 2 years, so for dynasty my answer is much different than for redraft. Love, to me, is showing some of his flaws - he’s jittery under pressure, doesn’t have a true alpha receiver, and his coach LOVES to run in the RZ. Like they’ll hand the ball to Jacobs 4 straight times from the 5 if they have to. I have JJM above Love. I know this puts me on an island. Most have Love as an ascending talent. Im unconvinced.

Now, am I “confident” that JJM is the QB14? No, I’m not. But I’m confident that he’s my target in the ADP range I’m looking to grab a couple of upside QBs to play the matchups with.

And I was confident enough to deal Puka for some picks, a LB1, and JJM during the rookie draft. So I’m hopeful - like I said before, love the talent, system, and weapons. Kid still has to produce. But I do believe my ranking is fair.

And again, you’re welcome to believe otherwise. It’s what makes conversations interesting.

...and as mentioned, after my first 6, I was just listing names as they came into my head, so Nix isn't 7/Caleb 8. And while I wouldn't discount JJM being able to have a really good rookie year, he's still a complete projection compared to those two.

Your comment on Goff is interesting. We're talking about a guy whose a former #1 overall pick and the last 3 seasons has become a centerpiece on a top tier NFC team while averaging 393/577 4546 32/10. On teams that averaged 26 rushing TD's/season. That's quite alot to put below JJM IMO and I think it's time to give Goff his flowers as a legit top tier NFL QB.

The Fields comment is fair but so long as he's on the field, his FF value will always be outsized. I do think Love was injury compromised last year playing thru the knee/groin, but he's really only produced an 8-9 game stretch at the end of 2023 that opened your eyes. But he still did...and speaking of end of year 8-9 game stretches, Bryce Young actually did something similar last year. And I didn't even mention Stroud.

I get that you've planted your flag so to speak and its fun to do that and be right. But I'll take the under.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's quite alot to put below JJM IMO and I think it's time to give Goff his flowers as a legit top tier NFL QB.

And again, I didn’t necessarily put him below JJM. I said he will have spike games and meh games. I know because I’ve rostered him for years and that’s his MO.
I’m well aware of what is yearly numbers look like, and where he was drafted, thanks. I’m also aware that he had games of 8.8 points, 11.6, 11.8, 10.8, and 11.2 last year. That’s 5 games hovering around 10 points. So IMO there’s a chance that JJM could have lower spike games but better consistency, which I prefer in a FF asset.

Bryce Young actually did something similar last year. And I didn't even mention Stroud.

Bryce impressed me last year.

Bryce also got benched last year.

I’m not ready to anoint him until I see a full season of good play out of him. His size still worries me.

I get that you've planted your flag so to speak and its fun to do that and be right. But I'll take the under.

Have I? I said where I have him ranked. I don’t recall flag-planting. But whatever, I think he’s going to be a “top half” of the pack QB. If that’s a flag, great - I’ll let it fly. Doesn’t seem particularly bold on a KOC coached team with JJ, Addison, AJones & Hock.

I believe a much more bold flag plant is @Deamon saying he won’t be the starter.
But we all got our takes. It’s a fun discussion.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The Fields comment is fair but so long as he's on the field, his FF value will always be outsized.

As for this you’re preaching to the choir. I specifically said he’s a FF producer. But he isn’t a winning QB. It’s why I’m out on Murray. Good FF producer, not a good QB, or at least a winning one.

I’d draft either in redraft this year. I’m not sold on either as a dynasty asset.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

And again, I didn’t necessarily put him below JJM. I said he will have spike games and meh games. I know because I’ve rostered him for years and that’s his MO.
I’m well aware of what is yearly numbers look like, and where he was drafted, thanks. I’m also aware that he had games of 8.8 points, 11.6, 11.8, 10.8, and 11.2 last year. That’s 5 games hovering around 10 points. So IMO there’s a chance that JJM could have lower spike games but better consistency, which I prefer in a FF asset.

This is a high expectation IMO.

Even Burrow last year had 5 substandard games. Dak in 2023 had 5 such games in his elite season. Baker had 3 last year. Sometimes, you simply run up against a buzzsaw, it's not just up to the QB.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is a high expectation IMO.

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion.

Even Burrow last year had 5 substandard games. Dak in 2023 had 5 such games in his elite season. Baker had 3 last year. Sometimes, you simply run up against a buzzsaw, it's not just up to the QB.

Burrow’s “substandard games” were 8.1 (week 1VS NEP), 14.9 (week 8 vs PHI), and 15 (week 18)

After those his lowest scoring games were 18.9, 19.8 & 20.3.

Burrow was startable in all but week 1. And he was missing Higgins for a good chunk of the season.

Goff was a ~10 point QB in 5 games with a full strength offense. Which is exactly my point. DET has a better ground game. And a coach who loves trick plays. It costs Goff FF points.

I don’t think you’re successfully rebuking my point here. But again, you’re welcome to your opinion. I do not believe JJM will have as many, or better spike games in his 1st year as a starter (though he’ll have some). But I do believe it’s a greater than zero possibility that he hovers in that ~20 point range more consistently.

Burrow is a decent comp there because both of these offenses tend to be a bit pass heavier than DET and neither have a David Montgomery.

Again, you’re totally welcome to disagree. I respect your opinions.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

This is a high expectation IMO.

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion.

Even Burrow last year had 5 substandard games. Dak in 2023 had 5 such games in his elite season. Baker had 3 last year. Sometimes, you simply run up against a buzzsaw, it's not just up to the QB.

Burrow’s “substandard games” were 8.1 (week 1VS NEP), 14.9 (week 8 vs PHI), and 15 (week 18)

After those his lowest scoring games were 18.9, 19.8 & 20.3.

Burrow was startable in all but week 1. And he was missing Higgins for a good chunk of the season.

Goff was a ~10 point QB in 5 games with a full strength offense. Which is exactly my point. DET has a better ground game. And a coach who loves trick plays. It costs Goff FF points.

I don’t think you’re successfully rebuking my point here. But again, you’re welcome to your opinion. I do not believe JJM will have as many, or better spike games in his 1st year as a starter (though he’ll have some). But I do believe it’s a greater than zero possibility that he hovers in that ~20 point range more consistently.

Burrow is a decent comp there because both of these offenses tend to be a bit pass heavier than DET and neither have a David Montgomery.

Again, you’re totally welcome to disagree. I respect your opinions.

Week 4 - 12.28?
Week 7 - 15.24?

...and while Week 6 saw him go for 19.82...10.7 of those came on a 47 yard TD run which is a bit flukey given his skillset. But it counts...so.

Yes, his sub-par efforts are a little heftier than Goff's, but were also talking about a QB who was a whisper away from a 5000/50 season. My overall point is that unless you have rushing floor like Allen/Hurts/Jayden/Lamar...pretty much every QB is going to have stinkers during the year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is a high expectation IMO.

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion.

Even Burrow last year had 5 substandard games. Dak in 2023 had 5 such games in his elite season. Baker had 3 last year. Sometimes, you simply run up against a buzzsaw, it's not just up to the QB.

Burrow’s “substandard games” were 8.1 (week 1VS NEP), 14.9 (week 8 vs PHI), and 15 (week 18)

After those his lowest scoring games were 18.9, 19.8 & 20.3.

Burrow was startable in all but week 1. And he was missing Higgins for a good chunk of the season.

Goff was a ~10 point QB in 5 games with a full strength offense. Which is exactly my point. DET has a better ground game. And a coach who loves trick plays. It costs Goff FF points.

I don’t think you’re successfully rebuking my point here. But again, you’re welcome to your opinion. I do not believe JJM will have as many, or better spike games in his 1st year as a starter (though he’ll have some). But I do believe it’s a greater than zero possibility that he hovers in that ~20 point range more consistently.

Burrow is a decent comp there because both of these offenses tend to be a bit pass heavier than DET and neither have a David Montgomery.

Again, you’re totally welcome to disagree. I respect your opinions.

Week 4 - 12.28?
Week 7 - 15.24?

...and while Week 6 saw him go for 19.82...10.7 of those came on a 47 yard TD run which is a bit flukey given his skillset. But it counts...so.

Yes, his sub-par efforts are a little heftier than Goff's, but were also talking about a QB who was a whisper away from a 5000/50 season. My overall point is that unless you have rushing floor like Allen/Hurts/Jayden/Lamar...pretty much every QB is going to have stinkers during the year.

Not saying they won’t.

And, point of fact, I’m also not saying JJM will be better than either QB. I just think he might have a slightly higher floor than Goff. I don’t think it’s unreasonable considering Goff’s points swings.

Of course JJM could easily come out and fall on his face. There’s a whole spectrum of possibility. I don’t believe it includes being replaced as one person does, but again we all have our takes.

 

[smbkrypt24]

This is a high expectation IMO.

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion.

Even Burrow last year had 5 substandard games. Dak in 2023 had 5 such games in his elite season. Baker had 3 last year. Sometimes, you simply run up against a buzzsaw, it's not just up to the QB.

Burrow’s “substandard games” were 8.1 (week 1VS NEP), 14.9 (week 8 vs PHI), and 15 (week 18)

After those his lowest scoring games were 18.9, 19.8 & 20.3.

Burrow was startable in all but week 1. And he was missing Higgins for a good chunk of the season.

Goff was a ~10 point QB in 5 games with a full strength offense. Which is exactly my point. DET has a better ground game. And a coach who loves trick plays. It costs Goff FF points.

I don’t think you’re successfully rebuking my point here. But again, you’re welcome to your opinion. I do not believe JJM will have as many, or better spike games in his 1st year as a starter (though he’ll have some). But I do believe it’s a greater than zero possibility that he hovers in that ~20 point range more consistently.

Burrow is a decent comp there because both of these offenses tend to be a bit pass heavier than DET and neither have a David Montgomery.

Again, you’re totally welcome to disagree. I respect your opinions.

Week 4 - 12.28?
Week 7 - 15.24?

...and while Week 6 saw him go for 19.82...10.7 of those came on a 47 yard TD run which is a bit flukey given his skillset. But it counts...so.

Yes, his sub-par efforts are a little heftier than Goff's, but were also talking about a QB who was a whisper away from a 5000/50 season. My overall point is that unless you have rushing floor like Allen/Hurts/Jayden/Lamar...pretty much every QB is going to have stinkers during the year.

Not saying they won’t.

And, point of fact, I’m also not saying JJM will be better than either QB. I just think he might have a slightly higher floor than Goff. I don’t think it’s unreasonable considering Goff’s points swings.

Of course JJM could easily come out and fall on his face. There’s a whole spectrum of possibility. I don’t believe it includes being replaced as one person does, but again we all have our takes.

So this is actually the same as Mathew Coller here that you said was a dumb quote. You are painting with a broad brush. Could be better or worse than Goff. It’s okay to not have a strong opinion, but right after calling out Coller isn’t a good look.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

This is a high expectation IMO.

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion.

Even Burrow last year had 5 substandard games. Dak in 2023 had 5 such games in his elite season. Baker had 3 last year. Sometimes, you simply run up against a buzzsaw, it's not just up to the QB.

Burrow’s “substandard games” were 8.1 (week 1VS NEP), 14.9 (week 8 vs PHI), and 15 (week 18)

After those his lowest scoring games were 18.9, 19.8 & 20.3.

Burrow was startable in all but week 1. And he was missing Higgins for a good chunk of the season.

Goff was a ~10 point QB in 5 games with a full strength offense. Which is exactly my point. DET has a better ground game. And a coach who loves trick plays. It costs Goff FF points.

I don’t think you’re successfully rebuking my point here. But again, you’re welcome to your opinion. I do not believe JJM will have as many, or better spike games in his 1st year as a starter (though he’ll have some). But I do believe it’s a greater than zero possibility that he hovers in that ~20 point range more consistently.

Burrow is a decent comp there because both of these offenses tend to be a bit pass heavier than DET and neither have a David Montgomery.

Again, you’re totally welcome to disagree. I respect your opinions.

Week 4 - 12.28?
Week 7 - 15.24?

...and while Week 6 saw him go for 19.82...10.7 of those came on a 47 yard TD run which is a bit flukey given his skillset. But it counts...so.

Yes, his sub-par efforts are a little heftier than Goff's, but were also talking about a QB who was a whisper away from a 5000/50 season. My overall point is that unless you have rushing floor like Allen/Hurts/Jayden/Lamar...pretty much every QB is going to have stinkers during the year.

Not saying they won’t.

And, point of fact, I’m also not saying JJM will be better than either QB. I just think he might have a slightly higher floor than Goff. I don’t think it’s unreasonable considering Goff’s points swings.

Of course JJM could easily come out and fall on his face. There’s a whole spectrum of possibility. I don’t believe it includes being replaced as one person does, but again we all have our takes.

I guess as someone who is a fan of the Falcons who has a QB whose almost at an identical point in their career as JJM…how you’re seeing his floor is an absolute best case scenario for ATL.

Like if Penix had 5 bad games this year (like Goff in 2024), that would quite frankly be unreal.

The past is one-dimensional, but saying a QB that hasn’t played one down of NFL football has a higher floor than a QB with a 3-year average of 393/577 4546 32/10?

That feels like wish sauce.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I guess as someone who is a fan of the Falcons who has a QB whose almost at an identical point in their career as JJM…how you’re seeing his floor is an absolute best case scenario for ATL.

I’m not seeing that as his floor. It’s how I have him ranked, and yes - I am ranking him with an optimistic approach. The same way I rank other players.

Like if Penix had 5 bad games this year (like Goff in 2024), that would quite frankly be unreal.

The past is one-dimensional, but saying a QB that hasn’t played one down of NFL football has a higher floor than a QB with a 3-year average of 393/577 4546 32/10?

Never said that. I said his weekly floor might be higher. There is a difference.

The biggest difference is I clearly said I expected Goffs overall numbers to be better, and his spike games to be higher.

You’re citing his yearly stats, again. I’m saying maybe Goff has lower potential weekly floors because
• better GL back
• more gadget plays b/c HC is a madman.

A couple of those 10 point Goff games were because Gibbs can and did break one to the house at any time.

Or a reverse resulted in a TD. Or a trick play where a WR is throwing a TD. The Lions do all those things, and that, at times, has impacted Goff’s numbers even in a game where they’ve scored a bunch of points.

If I didn’t articulate that well, my apologies.

That feels like wish sauce.

Not at all. It just helps if we’re talking apples to apples. If I think JJM will have a higher weekly floor and you’re talking about Goff’s year seasonal average, we’re clearly not on the same page. Might not even be in the same book.

I’m hopeful JJM is a top 14 QB. It’s where I have him ranked and where I’ll likely draft him.

Wish sauce optimism is him going 3.10 & 4.05 respectively in my last two SF startups. Ahead of like half the guys you listed. I double tapped Purdy & Baker as my starters in the last one ahead of JJM (I’m at the 1.11 spot and went QB-QB rounds 3-4) so clearly I’m not wish saucing as much as those dudes.

But I am optimistic. I believe KOC, arm talent, receiving talent, and a good work ethic will produce quality results.

The Vikings seem to believe that as well. We’ll find out in just a few weeks. Hopefully it’s fun to watch.

As for your Penix, he’s my QB2 in the other SF draft, so here’s hoping he’s legit as well. I’ll be rooting for him & your falcons.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell said J.J. McCarthy will play in the team’s preseason opener against the Texans.
O’Connell didn’t say how long McCarthy would play, but he did confirm that the second-year signal-caller will see the field for the first time since his preseason debut last season. McCarthy has had a strong training camp by most reports, and enters the season as the unquestioned QB1 with Sam Darnold now in Seattle. We wouldn’t expect McCarthy to play more than a few series before giving way to the backups, but it will be good to see him in action for the first time since his knee surgery.

Finally something concrete on the field for either the fans or haters to evaluate. Or both.

 

[Faust]

@TPPSkol
Wow, a bombshell back and forth between @colincowherd and @DMRussini on Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy and how the organization is propping him up when it’s not the reality

“Do I think J.J. McCarthy is wowing everyone at training camp? No, I don’t… [Vikings fans] are going to be disappointed…”

"There's almost this protective bubble or sort of an elevation of what he's doing..."

"There is a lot of lifting up of JJ McCarthy..."

Neither one holds back on what they're hearing about the @Vikings QB.
@TheHerd

https://x.com/tppskol/status/1952832913361584507?s=61