(HULK)
(Smash)
He's on the wire in my Superflex dynasty. But we have -3 per turnover.
I suppose I'll make a claim, but it's not blind bidding so I probably won't get him. And if I did, I'm not sure I'd trust him much.
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QB Jake Browning, CIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Stat Correction
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I suppose I'll make a claim, but it's not blind bidding so I probably won't get him. And if I did, I'm not sure I'd trust him much.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
I believe there are multiple reasons to grab him in SF.
1) Start him over poorer options
2) Hold him for bye weeks or an injury to a starter
3) Prevent opponents from acquiring him (notably the team with Burrows if they don’t have a decent QB3)
In my case, reasons #2 & #3.
rockaction
Footballguy
You totally nailed it. They're not trading for Winston unless Browning gets hurt. I am not in any way saying that Browning is better than Burrow when I say this, so I don't want anybody getting confused. But there are Twitter accounts from guys who are very respected nationally that have a big enough sample size to have figured out that Zac Taylor and Jake Browning play a completely different offense than the one Taylor calls for Burrow. There's less shotgun and it's not based on spread concepts. Sacks decrease by about ten percent with Browning at QB. Apparently Burrow insists upon running his offense that he feels comfortable with and it appears to be a condition of Taylor's employment if I'm reading between the lines correctly.
It's nuts. Cincinnati will not be better off with Browning because according to these guys he doesn't get through progressions like Burrow does. He's a designed-read or at worst a one-read quarterback. What they were saying is that we will see much less Higgins.
Food for thought. I'll try and pull the quotes so that there's a citation.
rockaction
Footballguy
Here we are. Timo Riske of PFF
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I wouldn't go as far as that with the one-read. Higgins and Tinsley both got TDs.
I do think he has much less free reign to audible off of calls like Burrow does and that does make a difference in things. One result is that they will gear play-calling more to his strengths. His fundamental numbers on a half-year sample size are pretty good and he has had two more years in the offense. He does do a little more hero ball with his throws and that gets him in trouble at times.
Of course they won't be better off with Browning compared to Burrow. But they can certainly win games with him and I think that is more true than it would be with any of the reasonable options out there.
I think Jameis is a realistic trade option not to start but to back up. If Jake has regressed badly from 2 years ago (no sign of that this past week) he can step in. They might feel he is a better safe option compared to Rypien - who while a veteran backup at this point has only had a couple weeks in the offense himself. Any QB acquired would be as the new #2 or new #3.
-QG
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Does anyone know if FBG tracks “pass blocking grades?”
rockaction
Footballguy
No, and people around the industry definitely criticize PFF grading because it’s inherently subjective and the person or journalist watching the game might disagree strongly and often. Some people love them and others would use the paper they’re printed on as toilet paper. So it runs the gamut and it’s not science but a human judgment. I happen to think they often correspond well with what I’ve seen.
Some probably had to during the great TP shortage during covid.
Just for reference's sake, he's the per game numbers when Browning started in 2023:
Browning=242 pass yards, 1.5 pass TDs, .88 INTs, 16 rush yards, .38 rush TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 4114-26-15 passing, and 272-6 rushing
Mixon=15 carries, 62 yards, .60 rush TDs, 3 catches, 27 yards, .40 receiving TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 255-1058-11 rushing and 55-465-6 receiving.
Chase=4 catches, 56 yards, .29 TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 75-959-5
Higgins=3 catches, 66 yards, .60 TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 51-1115-10
Burrow that year averaged 245 pass yards, 1.6 pass TDs, .70 INTs, 9 rush yards, 0.0 rush TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 4171-26-11 passing and 153-0 rushing
Mixon's TDs and receiving numbers were higher with Browning than Burrow, rush numbers were about the same
Chase's numbers took massive hits across the board. He was on a 130-1551-9 pace with Burrow
Higgins efficiency spiked, but his catches came down. He was on a 66-797-5 pace with Burrow
So, at least in 2023, the only guy really hurt by Browning was Chase. Now the usage yesterday throws a wrinkle into that data point, and 2023 Burrow wasn't at the level he was in 2024 obviously, but plugging those pace numbers in the 2024 season, and Browning would have been basically been Bo Nix , who was QB8.
Browning=242 pass yards, 1.5 pass TDs, .88 INTs, 16 rush yards, .38 rush TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 4114-26-15 passing, and 272-6 rushing
Mixon=15 carries, 62 yards, .60 rush TDs, 3 catches, 27 yards, .40 receiving TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 255-1058-11 rushing and 55-465-6 receiving.
Chase=4 catches, 56 yards, .29 TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 75-959-5
Higgins=3 catches, 66 yards, .60 TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 51-1115-10
Burrow that year averaged 245 pass yards, 1.6 pass TDs, .70 INTs, 9 rush yards, 0.0 rush TDs, which over a 17 game pace is 4171-26-11 passing and 153-0 rushing
Mixon's TDs and receiving numbers were higher with Browning than Burrow, rush numbers were about the same
Chase's numbers took massive hits across the board. He was on a 130-1551-9 pace with Burrow
Higgins efficiency spiked, but his catches came down. He was on a 66-797-5 pace with Burrow
So, at least in 2023, the only guy really hurt by Browning was Chase. Now the usage yesterday throws a wrinkle into that data point, and 2023 Burrow wasn't at the level he was in 2024 obviously, but plugging those pace numbers in the 2024 season, and Browning would have been basically been Bo Nix , who was QB8.
TartanLion
Footballguy
I think I’m gonna bid large on this dude in SF. I have Hurts and Allen and no starting 3rd QB, just a bunch of backups - Willis/Rudolph/Stidham. Other major contender has Lamar/Purdy/Flacco so I’d really like to block him ( he has $33 left out of $100 ), block the Burrows owner who is another contender and he has $72 left. His only other QB is Geno. I’ve got $92 left.
Is it absolute madness to bid $72 ( I have higher priority ) ? If someone bids more than that then so be it, but he could be incredibly useful as bye cover or as trade bait.
Is it absolute madness to bid $72 ( I have higher priority ) ? If someone bids more than that then so be it, but he could be incredibly useful as bye cover or as trade bait.
and he has quality targets and a defense that will need them to score points to stay in games. I can easily see him being a usefull starter in SF and 2QB leagues moving forward this year.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I hope Browning lights it up. He's getting a raw deal at his age not being a UFA until 2027. The Bengals are lucky they have him tied up through next season.
Jake The Snake was one of the best high school QBs in history. He's got legit arm talent and is a decent athlete. He can hurt you with his legs if you ignore him.
It would make a great story if Snake can lead them to the playoffs (assuming Burrow is done).
Jake The Snake was one of the best high school QBs in history. He's got legit arm talent and is a decent athlete. He can hurt you with his legs if you ignore him.
It would make a great story if Snake can lead them to the playoffs (assuming Burrow is done).
dmac37
Footballguy
I'm kind of in the same situation. The powerhouse team in our SF dynasty league has Burrow and Daniels and I face him this week. Browning is the only thing left on our waiver wire as another team dropped him last week. We have crazy deep rosters, 30 players plus IR and taxi. I'm debating also going crazy high thinking there will not be anything on the wire the rest of the season.
Not only will there likely not be anything on the wire, if there is they won't have the weapons around and experience Browning has already shown. Seems like an easy big spend
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Bengals also were his big break in opportunity so it cuts both ways a little (which is why they gave him better than the EFRA tender they could have stuck him with). Quintessential late bloomer. Though yeah it is pretty insane for a guy to be a 30-year-old RFA.
Assuming he does well though this would be the last year here I think. If I were to guess they might qualify him at the 2nd round tender (which is in the mid $5m range - not ideal for a backup for them with the other big contracts but they have the room) but a team would sign him for more than that if he performs well enough to be a starter elsewhere. More likely it would be a tender and trade in that situation.
I think it is part of the reason why they added two QBs to the PS. White is the guy with game experience - that is straightforward. Clifford is a younger guy (and a local Cincy guy) and I think if they see something in him they might have him be the longer term solution at backup. But they hit it out of the park with Browning for sure
-QG
karl.Racki
Footballguy
I may pick up Jameis.. With that OL, I can see Browning getting hurt too.
Cincy will have to make a deal for someone.
Cincy will have to make a deal for someone.
Jameis was signed by the Giants on a 2 year deal. If the Giants traded a QB it would most likely be Wilson after they make the move to Dart. Winston they value as the 2026 backup.
Don’t think the Bengals are in the QB trade market now. Browning injury could change that but if the losses pile up they are not going to give up future assets for a rental.
I just don't see jameis having any real value unless the Giants trade him or both Wilson and Dart get hurt.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
How we feeling about Browning in place of Burrow ROS? He has a top tier weapons trio and will likely be playing from behind a ton, which bodes well for fantasy stats.
I got Danny Dimes in one league but had to "settle" for Browning in my main league and I can't say I am too disappointed. I think he could be a sneaky starter.
Thoughts?
I got Danny Dimes in one league but had to "settle" for Browning in my main league and I can't say I am too disappointed. I think he could be a sneaky starter.
Thoughts?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Timmay
Footballguy
I'm a Bengals fan so take that for what it is worth.
For a fantasy quarterback, I really believe in Browning. He is not shy to sling the ball into any window, that may get him in trouble at times, but he is going to give his playmakers a chance every play. He has been in the system since 2023, even playing 7+ games in 2023 and filled in nicely for Burrow in his first season knowing the playbook. He has great chemistry with Chase, Tee, Tinsley and Iosivas, he has scored a TD in every game played for the Bengals. He is going to go out there and get around 70% completion %, 275 yards, and at least 1-2 TD's most games because he can and has to. At the same time, he will probably average about 1 INT a game, if he can limit some of those mistakes, I think he will shock a lot of people and be highly sought after come FA time in 2027. I think fantasy wise, he will finish the season top 15 even without any week 1 stats.
Went for $60 (out of $100) FAAB in a salary cap/contract league where the winning bid sets the salary. Typically people bid under $10 for players with the occasional teen bid. Browning went to the Burrow owner (SF league). Not sure what the second highest bid is because the report doesn't give that info. But historically this was a huge bid.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Good info, thanks!
It sounds like the WRs have a chance to produce but how does the outlook for Chase Brown? Browning is less likely to dump it off to RBs it sounds like? Do you envision the Bengals leaning into the run game more which could help offset Brown's drop in receptions?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
He gets the ball out quick.
As one podcaster put it, “He knows his limitations. He’s not Joe Burrow. But he’s got Chase & Higgins, and the key to success is getting the ball out of his hands & into their hands.”
Not afraid to take chances. Obviously can’t be turning it over 3x but he’s no game manager. Good chance he has a ton of 20-25 point games in the next 3 months.
As one podcaster put it, “He knows his limitations. He’s not Joe Burrow. But he’s got Chase & Higgins, and the key to success is getting the ball out of his hands & into their hands.”
Not afraid to take chances. Obviously can’t be turning it over 3x but he’s no game manager. Good chance he has a ton of 20-25 point games in the next 3 months.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Got him on the wire for free today, kind of a surprise. Dimes went for 66 of a 200 dollar budget
Taking a flyer.
Taking a flyer.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Would you guys start him over guys like RWilson, Stafford, Geno, Penix??
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Wilson is the highest ceiling but I really worry about the KC D
If you see Andrew Thomas playing he may be worth the look. I'm debating personally him and penix, and I kind of think Atlanta will just have that game relatively easily in hand so I'm leaning Browning
But that said, Penix just burned me vs minny, him vs Wentz could also be a low ceiling game
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Geno should not be starting for any fantasy team after last week's performance. That was straight up one of the worst QB play I have seen which is saying a lot.
I'd probably go Russ or Browning.
Not a Bengals fan, but I rode this same ride in 2023. I didn't realize that was his first year in the system, so that's promising. He filled in nicely from a fantasy perspective. Definitely not afraid to take shots, and if he can limit some of the bad turnovers I think he will be pretty legit. I think he had 3 rushing TD in 7 games in 2023, plus the GL touchdown last week, so maybe gonna help out a little bit with his legs too.
Most of my redraft leagues are $1K blind bidding and I was a little surprised at how zesty the bidding on Browning was for a one start QB league.
I had two leagues where I had Burrow and no other QB. I had to get very aggressive to win him in those leagues. Waiver wire was pretty empty, Stafford was my secondary bid in most of them for a sign how shallow it was. His average winning bid was right around 15% of the budget, $150, but several leagues of mine he went for $300-400+.
What surprised me a little was seeing teams that did not lose Burrow, had a QB this week, going into the $100's for him. Other then the two teams of mine with Burrow I was mainly bidding the $30-40 range and with those type of bids I went 0-19 picking him up.
Was actually weird bidding for him for me personally. I could only get him if I got really aggressive but I had a few leagues I have no roster room and those leagues he was mainly not even picked up.
I guess one bit of good news if like me you just lost Burrow and picked him up is that it's going to be hard to not get more production out of your QB spot then we've got the first two weeks.
I had two leagues where I had Burrow and no other QB. I had to get very aggressive to win him in those leagues. Waiver wire was pretty empty, Stafford was my secondary bid in most of them for a sign how shallow it was. His average winning bid was right around 15% of the budget, $150, but several leagues of mine he went for $300-400+.
What surprised me a little was seeing teams that did not lose Burrow, had a QB this week, going into the $100's for him. Other then the two teams of mine with Burrow I was mainly bidding the $30-40 range and with those type of bids I went 0-19 picking him up.
Was actually weird bidding for him for me personally. I could only get him if I got really aggressive but I had a few leagues I have no roster room and those leagues he was mainly not even picked up.
I guess one bit of good news if like me you just lost Burrow and picked him up is that it's going to be hard to not get more production out of your QB spot then we've got the first two weeks.
Timmay
Footballguy
Browning actually checked it down quite a bit in 2023, albeit to Joe Mixon (mixon had 2 passing TD's from Browning in the last 2 games of the season in 2023). But Chase Brown has been disappointing so far this year, he looked like he was going to be off and running in the first quarter of week 1, then it almost looked like Zac Taylor forgot he was on the team for the next 7 quarters. A lot of question marks for sure with how the offense will look or defense against for that matter moving forward. Do teams add an extra man in the box because they aren't facing Burrow? Does Chase Brown get more opportunities in the run game because Burrow isn't the QB? I do think in regard to check downs or Browning having the willingness or ability to throw to Brown, I don't see any issues with him wanting or needing to do that. I don't see the play calling being that much different with Browning compared to Burrow, as in they can both make similar throws. Only difference is Browning doesn't mind taking snaps under center, where Burrow likes the Shotgun. This to me only helps the run game and play action abilities to open things up more. Along with that the game script shouldn't matter because Brown does own this backfield and whether they are up 20 running the ball or down 20 passing the ball Brown should be involved. I could see Brown having 2-5 extra carries a game, but I wouldn't say the Bengals are going to rely to heavily on the run game. I also think for Chase Brown to really go boom in fantasy, he needs Perine to get hurt so he takes over those 3rd down opportunities like last year. That is where your money is made as a pass catching RB and when you aren't on the field, well.
Timmay
Footballguy
I like Penix this week, but Browning might beat him out a tad for me.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Browning was QB5 in the 8 weeks Burrow was out the last time he got hurt in '23, including the partial game in week 11. Snake was without Chase (1) or Higgins (3) half of those games, as well.
ponchsox
Footballguy
I can see where teams with a QB like Kyler Murray would take a shot on Browning. He definitely has a chance to take over for teams that are trotting out a low-end QB1 weekly.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Bad matchups three of the next four, but if you (and Browning's health) can hold on for dear life during that stretch, the seas may part afterward. Guy reminds me of Rich Gannon. He's a gamer. But that Cincy OL is a game wrecker. Forces collide here, as they did for RIP Burrow.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
yes, yes, yes, no
dnurk
Footballguy
This is me. Always take qb after everyone in my league has one and then even a few teams take a backup and have Kyler as my 1. Probably not starting browning this week
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Well I just lost my week.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
If you are the Bengals GM, do you talk to New England about Tommy Devito. i only mention Devito because he is currently 3rd string and he has started games recently. Even if you still have confidence in Browning, how much confidence do you have in Rypien?
Reach out NYG about Jameis or Russ.
Reach out to Atl about Kirk.
DeVito is terrible.
Maybe it's wishful thinking but I don't think it's time to bail on Browning yet. Minn defense had a great game. His receivers were coughing up the ball after catching it and he had no time back there. I could see people bailing on him for fantasy (still premature, imo), but if you are the Bengals, no better option than Browning is walking through that door. I'd stick with my guy who knows the offense over Jameis (lol), Russ, or Kirk.
Not saying bail on Jake, but he’s going to get hurt and Cincy needs a backup. Jameis could be a legit backup. He’s currently 3rd string in NY.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I think Atlanta actually needs Kirk and his contract is too much of a burden. I am not talking about trading anything substantial. (6th or 7th round picks or exchange)
rockaction
Footballguy
Did you see Devito against the Bucs at the end of the year last year? Bowles kept blitzing because he just couldn't handle it. It was. . . terrible.
Browning is better, but man, Jameis and a few others would look good right now. Browning's arm is like a noodle for some reason.
rockaction
Footballguy
Penix played Kurt right back into being a necessity for Atlanta. Hooo boy.
Yeah, getting shut out by one of the weaker defenses in the league is horrible. Not sure how this happens when You have Bijan and Drake as your weapons.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I didn't watch the game. I just can't see them throwing Kirk's signing bonus away without some sort of compensation.
