QB Justin Herbert, LAC (2 Viewers)

[Joe Bryant]

Question for anyone whose backup option is playing in a 1:00 game (Wentz, Goff, Winston, etc). If we don’t get any additional info before the early games tomorrow, what will you do?

That's 100% the question.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

As clearly stated, Gabe Davis was listed as questionable all week and leading up until Monday night when his designation changed to “out”.

The point was exactly that he was not listed as “doubtful” at any point, yet he was out.

So to reiterate, I have a hard time taking an injury designation at face value because there’s gamesmanship by the teams involved, and they are proving to be an unreliable source, as evidenced by the recent example provided of Gabe Davis.

 

[FairWarning]

I posted about 24 hours ago in the Chargers thread that I thought it was 95% likely he will play. That was after the line moved, and my opinion didn't change because of what happened with the line. I fully recognize I am in the minority.

I don't really see what that has to do with my post. My post is predicated on the fact that the plan all week was that Herbert was not going to practice on Friday, as has been reported. He threw on Tuesday and Thursday and reportedly exhibited no disconfort. I fully recognize throwing on Tuesday and Thursday is not the same as playing QB as it is played in a game... but the Chargers have said this was their plan, and that is consistent with how the Chargers have treated player injuries under Staley... with caution.

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information. If you believe the team is misrepresenting the situation, then you might believe the fact that he didn't practice on Friday is new information. I don't believe that, because I don't believe the head coach, Herbert, and beat writers close to the team would all report it as the plan if it really wasn't.

Thanks. What it has to do with your post is you seem confident Herbert will play even after the news and line movement and I was trying to see more precisely how confident you were.

When you say you're 95% confident he'll start, that is super helpful to better understand your position.

If your 2 QBs were Davis Mills with a 1:00 PM start and Justin Herbert with a 4:05 start, you'd start Herbert, right?

I ask as these are the real world type questions I'm fielding.

If Mariota is available, I’m dropping Mills. Now you have better options with the same time slot of games.

I started Goff over JH. Should be little drop off.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How Herbert’s shareholders want the Chargers to treat Herbert today before gametme

 

[FairWarning]

Let’s say JH plays - what kind of numbers do you expect, knowing he’s not running for a TD? I would think 250/1 is realistic for the high end. There is also a high probability of them running much more, and always the risk of getting knocked out. I’ll take a healthy QB with upside.

In most leagues, it’s easy to plug and play a qb off of waivers.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Question for anyone whose backup option is playing in a 1:00 game (Wentz, Goff, Winston, etc). If we don’t get any additional info before the early games tomorrow, what will you do?

That's 100% the question.

Wentz and Goff are not the worst options over a QB with busted up ribs or rib section.

I know Herbert investors don't want to hear it but they may want to explore some other options this morning.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let’s say JH plays - what kind of numbers do you expect, knowing he’s not running for a TD? I would think 250/1 is realistic for the high end. There is also a high probability of them running much more, and always the risk of getting knocked out. I’ll take a healthy QB with upside.

In most leagues, it’s easy to plug and play a qb off of waivers.

The bolded is exactly why I would not start Herbert if I had him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

As clearly stated, Gabe Davis was listed as questionable all week and leading up until Monday night when his designation changed to “out”.

The point was exactly that he was not listed as “doubtful” at any point, yet he was out.

So to reiterate, I have a hard time taking an injury designation at face value because there’s gamesmanship by the teams involved, and they are proving to be an unreliable source, as evidenced by the recent example provided of Gabe Davis.

Wouldn’t “questionable” imply he may or may not play - so it stands to reason that some questionable players - like Gabriel - don’t ultimately end up playing.

I think there was some study that 99% of “probable” players would play - so it was pointless and thats why it was eliminated.
Doubtful is similar in the it’s almost always going to end in out.

So “questionable” basically is now a 50/50 proposition depending on circumstances.

 

[FairWarning]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

As clearly stated, Gabe Davis was listed as questionable all week and leading up until Monday night when his designation changed to “out”.

The point was exactly that he was not listed as “doubtful” at any point, yet he was out.

So to reiterate, I have a hard time taking an injury designation at face value because there’s gamesmanship by the teams involved, and they are proving to be an unreliable source, as evidenced by the recent example provided of Gabe Davis.

Wouldn’t “questionable” imply he may or may not play - so it stands to reason that some questionable players - like Gabriel - don’t ultimately end up playing.

I think there was some study that 99% of “probable” players would play - so it was pointless and thats why it was eliminated.
Doubtful is similar in the it’s almost always going to end in out.

So “questionable” basically is no a 50/50 proposition depending on circumstances.

My rule of thumb is if they don’t practice on Friday, you don’t want to start them. He MAY play, but will be extremely limited, and you most likely will not get the points you want.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

As clearly stated, Gabe Davis was listed as questionable all week and leading up until Monday night when his designation changed to “out”.

The point was exactly that he was not listed as “doubtful” at any point, yet he was out.

So to reiterate, I have a hard time taking an injury designation at face value because there’s gamesmanship by the teams involved, and they are proving to be an unreliable source, as evidenced by the recent example provided of Gabe Davis.

Wouldn’t “questionable” imply he may or may not play - so it stands to reason that some questionable players - like Gabriel - don’t ultimately end up playing.

I think there was some study that 99% of “probable” players would play - so it was pointless and thats why it was eliminated.
Doubtful is similar in the it’s almost always going to end in out.

So “questionable” basically is no a 50/50 proposition depending on circumstances.

My rule of thumb is if they don’t practice on Friday, you don’t want to start them. He MAY play, but will be extremely limited, and you most likely will not get the points you want.

Sure, but then you get into the hairsplitting about what they did at practice. Were they limited? Were they “extremely limited“? Did they do light drills on the side?

There are just so many layers to the injury onion to interpret.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

I wasn’t responding to you, I was responding to JWB mentioning the probable designation

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

I wasn’t responding to you, I was responding to JWB mentioning the probable designation

Ah, ok… The multi quote feature gets confusing sometimes

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ian Rappaport is calling it a true game time decision - says he threw yesterday and looked good but it will come down to the pre-game workout today

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Ian Rappaport is calling it a true game time decision - says he threw yesterday and looked good but it will come down to the pre-game workout today

Which will presumably happen after 1 EST

 

[Joe Bryant]

I wrote this on our Sunday Update:

Ian Rapoport reported, "Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who is listed as questionable, is a true game-time decision today based on how he feels, sources say. With fractured rib cartilage, Herbert was looking doubtful as of Friday as Chase Daniel took all the reps. But he's pushing hard to go now."

Mike Garafolo followed up reporting, "Not surprisingly, Justin Herbert is making a push to play through the pain. He’s a very competitive dude and doesn’t want to miss a game. He threw some yesterday and felt better but not all the way there. The #Chargers will see how he feels later today."

We'll see what unfolds this morning, but if you made us give you a number this second as of 8:45 AM ET Sunday morning, we'd say it's 50% chance he plays. The trouble is the Chargers game is a 4:05 PM ET kickoff in Los Angeles. It's possible we might have more clarity on this before the 1:00 kickoffs but not a given.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ian Rappaport is calling it a true game time decision - says he threw yesterday and looked good but it will come down to the pre-game workout today

I saw that tweet… Weirdly, he tweeted that at like 1 AM PT. even assuming he’s on the East Coast, that’s still 4 o’clock in the morning. What the hell did he hear at 4 AM to indicate anything?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wrote this on our Sunday Update:

Ian Rapoport reported, "Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who is listed as questionable, is a true game-time decision today based on how he feels, sources say. With fractured rib cartilage, Herbert was looking doubtful as of Friday as Chase Daniel took all the reps. But he's pushing hard to go now."

Mike Garafolo followed up reporting, "Not surprisingly, Justin Herbert is making a push to play through the pain. He’s a very competitive dude and doesn’t want to miss a game. He threw some yesterday and felt better but not all the way there. The #Chargers will see how he feels later today."

We'll see what unfolds this morning, but if you made us give you a number this second as of 8:45 AM ET Sunday morning, we'd say it's 50% chance he plays. The trouble is the Chargers game is a 4:05 PM ET kickoff in Los Angeles. It's possible we might have more clarity on this before the 1:00 kickoffs but not a given.

Oh, OK… That makes more sense. So it sounds like he was simply re-upping what he had already said previously.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ian Rappaport is calling it a true game time decision - says he threw yesterday and looked good but it will come down to the pre-game workout today

I saw that tweet… Weirdly, he tweeted that at like 1 AM PT. even assuming he’s on the East Coast, that’s still 4 o’clock in the morning. What the hell did he hear at 4 AM to indicate anything?

I saw him just say it on NFL Network.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ian Rappaport is calling it a true game time decision - says he threw yesterday and looked good but it will come down to the pre-game workout today

I saw that tweet… Weirdly, he tweeted that at like 1 AM PT. even assuming he’s on the East Coast, that’s still 4 o’clock in the morning. What the hell did he hear at 4 AM to indicate anything?

I saw him just say it on NFL Network.

This is what I saw this morning. Check the timestamp

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1573948670558588930?s=46&t=Yr1jRSTu7M4Bxs6A6ZFmHw

 

[FairWarning]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I’m familiar with this, as I’ve not been living under a rock. I’m not sure what this has to do with what you quoted though.

As clearly stated, Gabe Davis was listed as questionable all week and leading up until Monday night when his designation changed to “out”.

The point was exactly that he was not listed as “doubtful” at any point, yet he was out.

So to reiterate, I have a hard time taking an injury designation at face value because there’s gamesmanship by the teams involved, and they are proving to be an unreliable source, as evidenced by the recent example provided of Gabe Davis.

Wouldn’t “questionable” imply he may or may not play - so it stands to reason that some questionable players - like Gabriel - don’t ultimately end up playing.

I think there was some study that 99% of “probable” players would play - so it was pointless and thats why it was eliminated.
Doubtful is similar in the it’s almost always going to end in out.

So “questionable” basically is no a 50/50 proposition depending on circumstances.

My rule of thumb is if they don’t practice on Friday, you don’t want to start them. He MAY play, but will be extremely limited, and you most likely will not get the points you want.

Sure, but then you get into the hairsplitting about what they did at practice. Were they limited? Were they “extremely limited“? Did they do light drills on the side?

There are just so many layers to the injury onion to interpret.

That depends on the team also. It’s my go-to though.

 

[Sam Quentin]

Justin Herbert (ribs) is questionable for Week 3 against the Jaguars.​

Sportsbooks opened the week with the Chargers as double-digit favorites. That number dwindled throughout the week until it cratered to -3 in favor of the Chargers on Friday. Sharp money is not buying Herbert suiting up for this game. The franchise passer is dealing with fractured rib cartilage after taking a hard hit in Week 2. If he plays, Herbert will be a risky QB1 bet. Fantasy managers should have a waiver wire option in mind for Sunday because Herbert now looks to be on the wrong side of questionable.
Sep 23, 2022, 4:57 PM ET

I don’t know if he’s going to play, but I don’t think this “Vegas” argument means much. Unless the people placing these bets are insiders who know non-public information about the severity of the injury — and if that’s what’s happening, it would be a huge scandal — then Vegas is guessing just as much as we are

Vegas is guessing.

But not like we are.

Vegas is much, much, much much much better at guessing than we are.

I’d initially read 2-4 weeks for this sort of injury. One bad hit to that spot and could be significant. Seems medically irresponsible to start Herbert.

I thought it was medically irresponsible for him to finish that week 2 game.

I remember reading people that said the injury was pain management and that there was no risk of making it worse….

 

[Tau837]

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information.

Herbert basically declared himself a GTD, so that seems like some pretty significant new information.

New how? He was listed as questionable on Wednesday. That is not doubtful (probably won't play) or probable (probably will play). It means he is 50/50. That's what GTDs are... player warms up on gameday and is either good to go or he isn't.

I disagree there has been any significant new info.

Just fyi the NFL eliminated probable as an injury designation a few years back. There is now only questionable or doubtful

Yes I am aware. Referencing what it used to mean helped to illustrate my point.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I remember reading people that said the injury was pain management and that there was no risk of making it worse….

Which isn’t entirely true. It actually can be made worse (more damage), and sustaining hits to the area can delay healing.

Yes, from a football perspective, it’s a pain management thing. Players get Shot up, wear flak jackets, etc. Saying it’s purely pain management is a bit of a myth.

But from an injury perspective there’s definitely additional risk.

 

[Tau837]

I posted about 24 hours ago in the Chargers thread that I thought it was 95% likely he will play. That was after the line moved, and my opinion didn't change because of what happened with the line. I fully recognize I am in the minority.

I don't really see what that has to do with my post. My post is predicated on the fact that the plan all week was that Herbert was not going to practice on Friday, as has been reported. He threw on Tuesday and Thursday and reportedly exhibited no disconfort. I fully recognize throwing on Tuesday and Thursday is not the same as playing QB as it is played in a game... but the Chargers have said this was their plan, and that is consistent with how the Chargers have treated player injuries under Staley... with caution.

So if you believe this was the plan, there has been no new information. If you believe the team is misrepresenting the situation, then you might believe the fact that he didn't practice on Friday is new information. I don't believe that, because I don't believe the head coach, Herbert, and beat writers close to the team would all report it as the plan if it really wasn't.

Thanks. What it has to do with your post is you seem confident Herbert will play even after the news and line movement and I was trying to see more precisely how confident you were.

When you say you're 95% confident he'll start, that is super helpful to better understand your position.

If your 2 QBs were Davis Mills with a 1:00 PM start and Justin Herbert with a 4:05 start, you'd start Herbert, right?

I ask as these are the real world type questions I'm fielding.

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

https://twitter.com/mortreport/status/1574033426285477889?s=46&t=Yr1jRSTu7M4Bxs6A6ZFmHw

Not the strongest vote of confidence in the chargers medical staff.

 

[FairWarning]

https://twitter.com/mortreport/status/1574033426285477889?s=46&t=Yr1jRSTu7M4Bxs6A6ZFmHw

Not the strongest vote of confidence in the chargers medical staff.

Here’s another take on the doctor - https://twitter.com/paulcharchian/status/1574047403027894278?s=46&t=yzxCejnemE11uhfEY6wIFg

 

[Joe Bryant]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

This is the key point: If you have a QB in the 1:00 game (say, Wentz) your choice boils down to this equation:

100% chance of Wentz vs. (X% chance of Herbert + (1-x)% chance of 4:00 alternative)

Obviously the main question is what you think X is. If it were 95, you’d probably roll the dice with Herbert. If it’s 25%, then you’re mostly deciding between Wentz and Mariota/Jimmy G/whoever.

Given that I think it’s lower, I’m going with Wentz

 

[Tau837]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

I often hedge late game starts if there is any risk and if other conditions like those I mentioned are met. It is always situation dependent with multiple considerations.

I have also been commenting that I think Herbert will start. That doesn't mean he will finish, either because he aggravates the injury or because the team gets ahead and chooses to pull him early to protect him. The point is, I haven't been projecting he will have a good fantasy performance.

I will also say, I don't own Herbert in any fantasy league. I have just been posting my take as a Chargers fan who follows the team closely.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Medical staff wants him to sit.

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports the Chargers' medical staff has encouraged Justin Herbert (ribs) to take the "long view."​

Herbert is reportedly contemplating getting a pain-killing injection in his ribs to play in Week 3. He suffered fractured cartilage in his ribs last week and is currently considered a game-time decision. It sounds like the Chargers' medical team wants him to sit and allow the injury to heal, but Herbert is pushing to play through the pain. Per Mortensen, "The cartilage injury can last several weeks or several months." For fantasy managers sweating out LA's inactives list, Jimmy Garoppolo is a widely-available pivot in the event Herbert is ultimately ruled out after the first slate of games kicks off.

 

[travdogg]

I'm not sure I'd want a painkilling injection in my ribs if I were Herbert, assuming this is the same medical staff that popped the Tyrod's lung.

 

[Genxersrule]

If it’s pain management I bet he plays. Heavy run game and quick passes. Him being back there is enough to hold the Jags rushers some.

 

[jurrassic]

As a Herbert fantasy owner, I’d rather see him sit. Want to see him healthy for the long term.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If it’s pain management I bet he plays. Heavy run game and quick passes. Him being back there is enough to hold the Jags rushers some.

See what I posted above. Medical staff wants him to take a “long term view” of his health.

It’s not all about pain management. It’s about healing and avoiding exacerbating the injury, extending the recovery time.

The whole “it’s all about pain management” schtick is an anachronism from a time when teams put winning above player safety.

 

[The Dude]

I am betting he is active but may not start.

 

[Faust]

Chris Mortensen @mortreport
Herbert must sign a form advising him of the risks of an injection if he has one.
Fractured rib cartilage is generally slower to heal that a fractured rib(s) because there’s no blood supply to cartilage.
Team has been “proactive” in communicating with NFLPA and NFL.

https://twitter.com/mortreport/status/1574034710086516736?s=21

 

[Schmeabs]

300 yards 3 touchdowns

 

[TripleThreat]

SBell reported If he takes the injection it’ll be done with imaging with an ultrasound

 

[oukurt]

I'm not sure I'd want a painkilling injection in my ribs if I were Herbert, assuming this is the same medical staff that popped the Tyrod's lung.

I sure hope that Mox & the gang can put a stop to Herbert getting that shot.
In fact they should all tell Coach Kilmer if he makes Justin take that cortizone shot that the only way they'll take the field is without him!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

This is the key point: If you have a QB in the 1:00 game (say, Wentz) your choice boils down to this equation:

100% chance of Wentz vs. (X% chance of Herbert + (1-x)% chance of 4:00 alternative)

Obviously the main question is what you think X is. If it were 95, you’d probably roll the dice with Herbert. If it’s 25%, then you’re mostly deciding between Wentz and Mariota/Jimmy G/whoever.

Given that I think it’s lower, I’m going with Wentz

I think if you have a viable option you almost have to use it - because in addition to him not playing is the chance that he plays and puts up poor stats due to the injury. 2 chances to come up “wrong”.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

This is the key point: If you have a QB in the 1:00 game (say, Wentz) your choice boils down to this equation:

100% chance of Wentz vs. (X% chance of Herbert + (1-x)% chance of 4:00 alternative)

Obviously the main question is what you think X is. If it were 95, you’d probably roll the dice with Herbert. If it’s 25%, then you’re mostly deciding between Wentz and Mariota/Jimmy G/whoever.

Given that I think it’s lower, I’m going with Wentz

I think if you have a viable option you almost have to use it - because in addition to him not playing is the chance that he plays and puts up poor stats due to the injury. 2 chances to come up “wrong”.

And the legitimate chance he gets sacked in the 1st Q and leaves the game, giving you very little on the stat sheet.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

This is the key point: If you have a QB in the 1:00 game (say, Wentz) your choice boils down to this equation:

100% chance of Wentz vs. (X% chance of Herbert + (1-x)% chance of 4:00 alternative)

Obviously the main question is what you think X is. If it were 95, you’d probably roll the dice with Herbert. If it’s 25%, then you’re mostly deciding between Wentz and Mariota/Jimmy G/whoever.

Given that I think it’s lower, I’m going with Wentz

I think if you have a viable option you almost have to use it - because in addition to him not playing is the chance that he plays and puts up poor stats due to the injury. 2 chances to come up “wrong”.

And the legitimate chance he gets sacked in the 1st Q and leaves the game, giving you very little on the stat sheet.

After watching him throw that 4th down laser at the end of the KC game, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he played and put up 350/3/0. But fantasy is all about playing the percentages, and the most likely scenario seems to be that he either sits or is limited. Wentz it is

 

[Sam Quentin]

300 yards 3 touchdowns

Only because I will bench him

 

[BladeRunner]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

This is the key point: If you have a QB in the 1:00 game (say, Wentz) your choice boils down to this equation:

100% chance of Wentz vs. (X% chance of Herbert + (1-x)% chance of 4:00 alternative)

Obviously the main question is what you think X is. If it were 95, you’d probably roll the dice with Herbert. If it’s 25%, then you’re mostly deciding between Wentz and Mariota/Jimmy G/whoever.

Given that I think it’s lower, I’m going with Wentz

I think if you have a viable option you almost have to use it - because in addition to him not playing is the chance that he plays and puts up poor stats due to the injury. 2 chances to come up “wrong”.

And the legitimate chance he gets sacked in the 1st Q and leaves the game, giving you very little on the stat sheet.

After watching him throw that 4th down laser at the end of the KC game, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he played and put up 350/3/0. But fantasy is all about playing the percentages, and the most likely scenario seems to be that he either sits or is limited. Wentz it is

Yeah, I'm going with Cousins over him. I was certain he would play at the beginning of last week but now there is just too many questions.

 

[Genxersrule]

It would depend on my situation: opponent strength, strength of the rest of my lineup, relative impact of QB scoring, and whether or not it was possible to pick up another 4 pm game QB as a hedge. If I couldn’t add another QB and felt I could win with Mills, I would probably be conservative and start Mills. Otherwise I would start Herbert.

That's what I don't understand. If you think it's 95% that Herbert starts, you'd start Mills if Mills and Herbert were your choices?

This is the key point: If you have a QB in the 1:00 game (say, Wentz) your choice boils down to this equation:

100% chance of Wentz vs. (X% chance of Herbert + (1-x)% chance of 4:00 alternative)

Obviously the main question is what you think X is. If it were 95, you’d probably roll the dice with Herbert. If it’s 25%, then you’re mostly deciding between Wentz and Mariota/Jimmy G/whoever.

Given that I think it’s lower, I’m going with Wentz

I think if you have a viable option you almost have to use it - because in addition to him not playing is the chance that he plays and puts up poor stats due to the injury. 2 chances to come up “wrong”.

And the legitimate chance he gets sacked in the 1st Q and leaves the game, giving you very little on the stat sheet.

After watching him throw that 4th down laser at the end of the KC game, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he played and put up 350/3/0. But fantasy is all about playing the percentages, and the most likely scenario seems to be that he either sits or is limited. Wentz it is

Yeah, I'm going with Cousins over him. I was certain he would play at the beginning of last week but now there is just too many questions.

That's a very sensible move.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

300 yards 3 touchdowns

Only because I will bench him

Every time.

 

[Sam Quentin]

There is a part of me that thinks a lot of this will he or won’t he drama is to play to the Neanderthal fan mentality. Everybody using their brain knows he should sit, but they don’t want him to look “soft“ for doing so.
I could be wrong.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

There is a part of me that thinks a lot of this will he or won’t he drama is to play to the Neanderthal fan mentality. Everybody using their brain knows he should sit, but they don’t want him to look “soft“ for doing so.
I could be wrong.

My guess is every NFL player not in a full body cast wakes up Sunday morning and believes he should play

 

[Loris]

Scooped up Jags D just in case he is out. The Vegas line move made my decision.

 

[Faust]

Adam Schefter

Justin Herbert is active today.

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1574105541021822976?s=21