QB Keeper: Trubisky vs. Jackson (1 Viewer)

[ANDY G]

Any wisdom would be appreciated....my first post on the forum.  Excited to be part of the community.  This is my 2nd season with the Football Guys.

League

- 2 QB, standard league.  12 teams.  We have to start 2 QBs, 4 points per passing touchdown and 6 points per rushing touchdown.  1 point for 25 yards passing, 1 point for 10 yards rushing, -1 for each interception or fumble.  QBs in our league are a premium.  Most teams have 3 on their roster. 

- We can keep one player from each position (QB, RB, WR) each year and then redraft the remainder of our roster.

- No limit in terms of how many years you can keep the same player. 

- However, each year you would have to pay a draft price for the keeper at the next highest round (ex. Round 8 in 2019, Round 7 in 2020, Round 6 in 2021).

- Super competitive league, last place team/owner is put through hell during the off-season. 

Draft

- We have an 18 round draft.

- QBs go super quickly in my league.  Given that each team is keeping one QB already, QBs 12-24 are typically drafted no later than the 3rd round.

Question

- Should I keep Lamar Jackson (11th round keeper) or MT (8th round keeper)?

Context

-  I am leaning toward MT, however I am worried that I am a huge Bears fan and consequently my judgment is being clouded.  I like the idea of having the CHI starting QB on my team.  

-  I think MT is going to be more durable than Lamar and is going to have more Boom games due to passing TDs in a high power offense.  I also really like the Nagy offense and the skill players in Chicago.   MT has rushing upside to give him a nice floor.  The opportunity cost of an 8th rounder is small, but some exists.  The only negative is recent reports on MT progress from Chicago beat reporters and that the Bears have a strong defense impacting game scripts.  

- With Lamar, he could, could, could, could be the ultimate fantasy QB.  High Floor and High ceiling with a bunch of Michael Vick.  Reports out of BAL are super-positive.  Given that he is an 11th round keeper, I could have him for almost free for most of his career.,   The opportunity cost of an 11th rounder is small. Our scoring is such that rushing QBs are highly rewarded.  The down side is that Lamar never adapts to the NFL from a passing perspective and becomes the next RGIII.   Plus the number of rushes expected could lead to injuries later in the season and during his longer career.  

Thoughts?  I need to bet on the career of one of these guys.  Whoever I drop, will be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round of our league this year.

Thanks again,

Andy

 

[Gally]

I would go with Jackson strictly because he is the better value due to round lost.  I think they are fairly even as a FF commodity and since the round is better it swings me to Jackson. 

 

[jmble]

I like Trubisky this year.  The advancements he made from year one to year two were huge.  I have both of them as well and am planning on going with Trubisky.  

Lamar Jackson has a pretty nice upside to him, especially with the running ability but I just like Trubisky a lot this year.  It's a gut feeling.  On close calls I always go with my gut because if I don't and I turned out to have been right I would kick myself.

 

[ANDY G]

Thanks for the quick reply.  Can't wait to see the preseason games to help decide.  Probably going to go with Tribs because it is a game.. and I like having an excuse to watch the Bears....