QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (3 Viewers)

[cloppbeast]

1) Stack safeties hi/lo into the middle of the field to take away TE seam/corner routes. 

2) The spy's job isn't to tackle the QB, it's to play basketball defense and use the sideline to string Jackson out laterally. If he gains 5 yds by cutting back to the middle of the field? So be it. Make him work and get tackled for every yd. This clearly frustrated him, he had 9 carries for 27 yds for a paltry 3 YPC in the TEN game.

3) CBs sit on shallow crosses and bet on the fact Jackson doesn't have the accuracy/timing to complete deep outs. 

It's exactly the same way teams eventually neutralized Kaepernick. In his 2nd year the niners went from 11th in yds on offense to 25th. The tight ends are the key... Vernon davis's stats fell off a cliff in Roman's final year. This is why I emphasize that Jackson must learn the precision of being able to throw sideline routes. It's not like TEN had an all-star defense... just played good disciplined team defense.

This strategy is obvious to everyone honestly. It's what I was telling my buddy way before it happened. You can probably go back to posts from week 7 in this thread to read the same thing. But it's just not that easy dude, evendenced by the fact that it has happened exactly twice. The extant of what a defense needs to do to 'stop him' should serve as an indication of his talent. And by 'stop him' I mean hold the offense to 550 yards and 29 fds. 

It's really no different to teams 'figuring out' to stop Brady you play tight press coverage and get pressure with a 4 man rush. This has been the blueprint for a while, but it's just not that easy in real life.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Going back to the first word of this thread title,  best 10th round pick I've ever made.  Compare that to what other top QBs have cost in dynasty.

LOL @ "depreciating asset" when most of us bought dirt cheap .

 

[CalBear]

Or you could simply go with precedence... Roman v1.0 w/ Kap, RG3, the Wildcat, VY, hell even Tim Tebow (who let's not forget passed for 300 yds in his first playoff game AND WON). The mountain of evidence against sustained success from running QB focused offenses is pretty significant. 

Your precedents are a list of guys who have never, in their entire careers, had a single season among them anywhere near what Lamar Jackson had in his second year in the league. I mean, seriously, 47.9% career completions Tim Tebow? 

Really the best andecedant is Steve Young. 

 

[chinawildman]

Your precedents are a list of guys who have never, in their entire careers, had a single season among them anywhere near what Lamar Jackson had in his second year in the league. I mean, seriously, 47.9% career completions Tim Tebow? 

Really the best andecedant is Steve Young. 

You're right, but I never said Jackson's gonna just flame out and be outta the league in 5 years either. My point was that running QBs in gimmicky offenses are likely to pop early then fade and that statistically, 2019 could possibly have already been his best year. Yea maybe he' a top 5 QB again in 2020... but my guess is 95% chance his stats don't measure up to this year's.

And the fact you gotta go back 2 decades to try and find an example of what you consider a "running QB that figured it out" should tell you odds here.

Oh and BTW I think you forget how dominant Kap was in Roman's offense in 2012... He passed for more yds/game, and was a full yd better on YPA and YPC compared to Jackson's campaign this year. Prorate his 7 regular season starts that year over the span of a season and statistically he's right up there with if not better than Jackson. One could easily argue he did Roman's offense better, given he made it all the way to the superbowl.

 

[chinawildman]

Thats fine and has nothing to do with my original take of noting the Ravens were doing something different before the season began and that I did not think teams had him figured out which they didn't and showed he wasn't like Vick or Kap who didn't come close to his numbers because they didn't.

The numbers exceeded everyone's expectations so to say his numbers will go down is not a unique take worth noting but saying last year before he blew up that the Ravens have done something different and that teams would not be able to adjust was worth noting.

Check out Kap's stats from his first 7 starts + postseason in 2012 and tell me again how he didn't "come close" to Jackson. His 8.6 YPA led the league that year and his 13.3 YPC was a full yd better than Jackson. PLUS he made it to the superbowl. 

I mean this discussion is all moot anyway... this is the Lamar jackson dynasty owner's thread after all. There's zero % probability that you guys will ever be convinced that he is a depreciating asset.

 

[CalBear]

Check out Kap's stats from his first 7 starts + postseason in 2012 and tell me again how he didn't "come close" to Jackson. His 8.6 YPA led the league that year and his 13.3 YPC was a full yd better than Jackson. PLUS he made it to the superbowl. 

I mean this discussion is all moot anyway... this is the Lamar jackson dynasty owner's thread after all. There's zero % probability that you guys will ever be convinced that he is a depreciating asset.

I don't play dynasty.

In Kaep's 7 regular-season plus three playoff games, he threw for a total of 14 TDs. 14 TDs in 10 games is not at all like 36 TDs in 15 games. His was the best passing half-season of the QBs you listed but still nowhere near Jackon's. And in Kaep's best full season he still didn't manage a 100 passer rating; Jackson just put up 113.3.

 

[chinawildman]

I don't play dynasty.

In Kaep's 7 regular-season plus three playoff games, he threw for a total of 14 TDs. 14 TDs in 10 games is not at all like 36 TDs in 15 games. His was the best passing half-season of the QBs you listed but still nowhere near Jackon's. And in Kaep's best full season he still didn't manage a 100 passer rating; Jackson just put up 113.3.

Kap had more yards, much better YPA per game... TDs are just a fluky stat if you're trying to argue overall QB efficiency. Kap's 98 rating in the reg season and 101 rating in the playoffs that year is no slouch either. How'd Jackson do in the playoffs? Kap had an insane 10 YPA in his 2012 post season run, and averaged 90yds a game rushing.

You're still missing the point though... which is that Kap's QB rating, YPA, YPC decayed progressively each year. He came out looking like a world-beater in this exact same offense and same OC... yet he ultimately earned the unique distinction of being benched for Blaine Gabbert. Is Jackson having marginally better stats in some areas (and worse in others) enough to convince you he'll avoid a similar fate?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Kap had more yards, much better YPA per game... TDs are just a fluky stat if you're trying to argue overall QB efficiency. Kap's 98 rating in the reg season and 101 rating in the playoffs that year is no slouch either. How'd Jackson do in the playoffs? Kap had an insane 10 YPA in his 2012 post season run, and averaged 90yds a game rushing.

You're still missing the point though... which is that Kap's QB rating, YPA, YPC decayed progressively each year. He came out looking like a world-beater in this exact same offense and same OC... yet he ultimately earned the unique distinction of being benched for Blaine Gabbert. Is Jackson having marginally better stats in some areas (and worse in others) enough to convince you he'll avoid a similar fate?

Let’s say you’re right about offenses getting figured out. If Greg Roman’s had already been figured out a few years ago, why would it matter who is the qb in it?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Check out Kap's stats from his first 7 starts + postseason in 2012 and tell me again how he didn't "come close" to Jackson. His 8.6 YPA led the league that year and his 13.3 YPC was a full yd better than Jackson. PLUS he made it to the superbowl. 

I mean this discussion is all moot anyway... this is the Lamar jackson dynasty owner's thread after all. There's zero % probability that you guys will ever be convinced that he is a depreciating asset.

Colin Kapernick 2012 first 7 starts plus 3 post season games = 10 games

• 2,406 passing yards
  
• 14 passing TDs
  
• 502 rushing yards
  
• 5 rushing TDs
  

Lamar Jackson last 9 starts of this year plus 1 post season game = 10 games

• 2,471 passing yards
  
• 26 passing TDs
  
• 775 rushing yards
  
• 4 rushing TDs
  

Even adjusting to the highest point of his carreer Kap's stats don't come close to Lamar falling shy in passing TDs and rushing yards.

Funny thing is that the majority of Kap's rushing stats (181 rushing yards 2 rushing TDs) came from one game against Green Bay where defensive coordinator Dom Capers failed to adjust his scheme and SF took advantage and Dom got fired.  

That game was the anomaly of Kap's entire career as in his 69 career starts 69 GAMES  PLAYED  he had one regular season game where he had a 100 yard rushing game against SD and had a 90 yard score.  Other than that no game comes close to the 181 rushing yards in the GB game which is and was a freak due to Dom Capers poor game plan and utter lack of game day adjustments and that is the point I made.

Teams adjusted to Kap but have failed to adjust to Lamar Jackson after he broke out last year.  The critics said the league would adjust to him just as they adjusted to Colin Kapernick and this proves that point.  They adjusted to Kap and failed in a BIG WAY in not being able to adjust to Lamar Jackson.

 

[Gally]

Check out Kap's stats from his first 7 starts + postseason in 2012 and tell me again how he didn't "come close" to Jackson. His 8.6 YPA led the league that year and his 13.3 YPC was a full yd better than Jackson. PLUS he made it to the superbowl. 

I mean this discussion is all moot anyway... this is the Lamar jackson dynasty owner's thread after all. There's zero % probability that you guys will ever be convinced that he is a depreciating asset.

Much of the reason the Ravens flamed out in the playoffs this year were non-Lamar reasons.  The defense could not stop Henry at all and overall were just not prepared as a team.  The didn't make in game adjustments and were beaten by a team that played an overall better game.  Jackson wasn't at his best but he was by no means the reason the Ravens lost......just like Kaep was by no means the reason (other than the GB game) why the 49ers went to the SB.

 

[Ilov80s]

2) The spy's job isn't to tackle the QB, it's to play basketball defense and use the sideline to string Jackson out laterally. If he gains 5 yds by cutting back to the middle of the field? So be it. Make him work and get tackled for every yd. This clearly frustrated him, he had 9 carries for 27 yds for a paltry 3 YPC in the TEN game.

I must be missing something because Jackson had 20/143 rushing which is 7.2 ypc against the Titans. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I must be missing something because Jackson had 20/143 rushing which is 7.2 ypc against the Titans. 

You're not missing anything. But somebody else seems to be missing something.

 

[IheartGuinness]

You're kinda proving my point. All these running QBs shined bright early, but then burnt out quickly. All were bestowed the same superlatives heaped on Jackson. BTW VY won rookie of the year.

The other dudes you listed later are QBs that CAN run, not running QBs operating in offenses tailored specifically to make them runners. They could operate as pocket passers... the running ability was gravy. Coincidentally they were also able to sustain lengthier careers as NFL QBs.

Outstanding points. You win this argument. Obviously, only time will tell, but this is the most logical analysis in this thread. We'll see what the future holds.

 

[Ilov80s]

You're kinda proving my point. All these running QBs shined bright early, but then burnt out quickly. All were bestowed the same superlatives heaped on Jackson. BTW VY won rookie of the year.

The other dudes you listed later are QBs that CAN run, not running QBs operating in offenses tailored specifically to make them runners. They could operate as pocket passers... the running ability was gravy. Coincidentally they were also able to sustain lengthier careers as NFL QBs.

It must have been a terrible year for rookies. Vince Young ran 83 times for 552 yards,  7 TDs with 12 fumbles. he threw for 2200 yards 12 TDs and 13 Ints. That was by far his best season ever. His second season he ran 93 times for 395 yards, 2 TDs and 10 fumbles. He thew for 2500 yards, 9 TDs and 17 Ints. 

I don't think Vince Young was ever actually good in the NFL. 

 

[Ghost Rider]

3 more years until they HAVE to pay him big bucks. They only have 41 players under contract for 2020 so free agency and the draft will be important for them to keep atop their division. 

This is why this postseason was a huge missed opportunity for the Ravens. 

When you get a good young QB, you need to take advantage of it and win a Super Bowl before you have to pay that QB big money.  Seattle did it with Wilson before they had to pay him big money, and so did Philly (even though Wentz missed the Super Bowl due to injury).  KC needs to do the same before they have to pay Mahomes as well. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

It must have been a terrible year for rookies. Vince Young ran 83 times for 552 yards,  7 TDs with 12 fumbles. he threw for 2200 yards 12 TDs and 13 Ints. That was by fae his best season ever. His second season he ran 93 times for 395 yards, 2 TDs and 10 fumbles. He thew for 2500 yards, 9 TDs and 17 Ints. 

I don't think Vince Young was ever actually good in the NFL. 

The guy is just making stuff up now. Pointless to even argue with him.

 

[lod001]

When Vince Young came out he landed on a team with an up & coming D. Ended up 8th best in points allowed his 2nd year & #2 his 3rd year. Then it fell apart (ranked 28) and he was exposed.

You can only run so long before the injury hits. Ya pay Jackson, which they certainly will unless it falls apart before year 5, you can't pay the rest. You lose the OL, you are in trouble with a guy that runs that much. It's always been that way and even in the flag football era, one wrong turn can land you in the blue tent and he's made a lot of wrong turns that he was lucky to survive.

This is what it's gonna look like but he wont get up.

 

[Ilov80s]

When Vince Young came out he landed on a team with an up & coming D. Ended up 8th best in points allowed his 2nd year & #2 his 3rd year. Then it fell apart (ranked 28) and he was exposed.

You don’t think Vince Young was exposed in year 2 when threw 17 interceptions and only 9 TDs over 15 games? 

 

[chinawildman]

I must be missing something because Jackson had 20/143 rushing which is 7.2 ypc against the Titans. 

Sorry I forgot to write IN THE FIRST HALF... when the game mattered. Yea he racked up a lotta fantasy pts in garbage time in the 4th quarter... cool. He can celebrate w/ Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Ilov80s]

Sorry I forgot to write IN THE FIRST HALF... when the game mattered. Yea he racked up a lotta fantasy pts in garbage time in the 4th quarter... cool. He can celebrate w/ Aaron Rodgers.

Oh ok. Sucks for Ravens fans that they have to settle for a QB getting an Aaron Rodgers comp. 

 

[chinawildman]

Oh ok. Sucks for Ravens fans that they have to settle for a QB getting an Aaron Rodgers comp. 

Ravens fans might wanna check on 2019 Rodgers's performance before getting too excited... his QBR of 53.5 this season qualifies him for 18th in the NFL... behind Daniel Jones. Again, ppl on this site overly skew their perceptions of players through accumulation of stats. Great fantasy performances by QBs often belong to the losers of real football games.

 

[chinawildman]

All the people in here seem to think I'm saying Jackson sucks. That's not the case... I think he's a better talent than Kaepernick, and maybe can develop as a passer to augment his skillset. However, I would not bank on the latter nor would I rely on a gimmicky Roman offense to have continued success in the NFL given historical precedence. 

Jackson finished as the leader in the NFL in passing TDs and QBR, which attests to how great of a season he had. But you've gotta be crazy to think that's his floor and will, as the pundits love you say "only get better". The excitement around Jackson is certainly palpable, but it's also the reason why bubble stocks balloon to astronomical prices at the onset. 

Fantasy QB-wise he'll probably still be very valuable for at least a year or 2 more, but chances are it's diminishing returns from here on out. 

 

[lod001]

You don’t think Vince Young was exposed in year 2 when threw 17 interceptions and only 9 TDs over 15 games? 

Naw. Back then they were saying it's Fisher or he has no WRs or its his OC or its the OL. There were plenty of excuses. Reality yes, you are correct, he was being exposed. The so called analysts, they were blaming everything else the could think of. Same thing happened with David Carr. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Naw. Back then they were saying it's Fisher or he has no WRs or its his OC or its the OL. There were plenty of excuses. Reality yes, you are correct, he was being exposed. The so called analysts, they were blaming everything else the could think of. Same thing happened with David Carr. 

Yeah my point was just Vince Young isn’t a guy who was a good NFL QB but got figured out over time. He just wasn’t ever any good and is a poor comparison for Lamar.

 

[need2know]

When Vince Young came out he landed on a team with an up & coming D. Ended up 8th best in points allowed his 2nd year & #2 his 3rd year. Then it fell apart (ranked 28) and he was exposed.

You can only run so long before the injury hits. Ya pay Jackson, which they certainly will unless it falls apart before year 5, you can't pay the rest. You lose the OL, you are in trouble with a guy that runs that much. It's always been that way and even in the flag football era, one wrong turn can land you in the blue tent and he's made a lot of wrong turns that he was lucky to survive.

This is what it's gonna look like but he wont get up.

Vince young is an absolutely terrible comparison for lamar.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Vince young is an absolutely terrible comparison for lamar.

46 tds - 51 ints

36 tds - 6 ints

Sounds like the same guy to me.

 

[Gally]

This is what it's gonna look like but he wont get up.

So you are comparing Jackson's field awareness to Eli?  Eli has zero awareness while running which is why he got lit up.  Jackson does not take shots like that because of his field awareness.  Other comps like RG3 did not have this awareness which helped lead to his injuries. 

This is not to say he won't get blindsided because anything can happen.  However I think Jackson has a "sense" that is a skill that helps avoid these type of hits.  Of all the running qb's I have seen Jackson is the best of these subtle movements to avoid big hits.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Ravens fans might wanna check on 2019 Rodgers's performance before getting too excited... his QBR of 53.5 this season qualifies him for 18th in the NFL... behind Daniel Jones. Again, ppl on this site overly skew their perceptions of players through accumulation of stats. Great fantasy performances by QBs often belong to the losers of real football games.

With all due respect, the QBR stat is trash.  

 

[chinawildman]

With all due respect, the QBR stat is trash.  

Sure, but it's less trash than QB rating. Personally I prefer YPA as a good all around measure, but that's even deceiving. QBR's the only stat that takes situation into account.

 

[chinawildman]

Vince young is an absolutely terrible comparison for lamar.

I think this analogy is going off track. I never said VY is a comparable player to Jackson, I said the trajectory of a running QB's productivity in the NFL is often peak early, then fade.

Whether Jackson's a 100 or VY's a 60 is irrelevant... my point was that their stock was at their highest when they made their initial splash. 

 

[Faust]

Ravens' Lamar Jackson crowned the 2019 PFF Offensive Player of the Year

 

[CalBear]

Here's a better way to look at Jackson: How many QBs have achieved a 100+ QB rating in their first two years in the league? Minimum 500 attempts:

• Mahomes 111.7
  
• Warner 107.9
  
• L.Jackson 104.7
  
• Marino 104.5
  
• D.Watson 103.1
  
• Nick Foles 101.0
  
• Russell Wilson 100.5
  

So among that group, we have two Hall of Famers, one future Hall of Famer (Wilson, assuming), the three most promising young NFL QBs, and one possible outlier (Foles), who may not have a great career but did win a Super Bowl.

If you want to find a group to compare Jackson to, this is a way better set of comps than freaking Tim Tebow and Vince Young. For heaven's sake.

If you lower the threshold to passer rating of 95 you add Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott, so, another future Hall of Famer and another of the most promising young QBs.

So even if you ignore his running, he's put up passing numbers comparable with some of the best young QBs in NFL history. And almost everyone in this group went on to elite NFL careers as passers. Some of them, like Wilson, also run a lot and are way better comps for Jackson than running QBs who did not ever display NFL-level passing skills. 

 

[The Frankman]

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has been named the AP Most Valuable Player.

Jackson is just the second unanimous MVP winner ever. The only QB in NFL history to average at least 80 rushing yards per game was one of just eight players regardless of position to accomplish that feat in 2019, as Jackson truly offered the potential to provide both QB1 and RB1 production in the same week throughout the season. Perhaps most impressive was simply the manner that Jackson continuously picked up his yards on the ground, as his 42 broken tackles were easily the most in the league among all non-RBs (PFF). Nobody provided more ankle-breaking goodness and big-play ability on a week-to-week basis. Of course, Jackson also demonstrated elite ability as a pure passer throughout the season. Only Ryan Tannehill (10.2), Matthew Stafford (9.1) and Patrick Mahomes (8.9) averaged more adjusted yards per attempt than Jackson (8.9) in 2019.

 

[Ilov80s]

Jackson is just the second unanimous MVP winner ever

Yeah, I can see that

 

[chinawildman]

Here's a better way to look at Jackson: How many QBs have achieved a 100+ QB rating in their first two years in the league? Minimum 500 attempts:

• Mahomes 111.7
  
• Warner 107.9
  
• L.Jackson 104.7
  
• Marino 104.5
  
• D.Watson 103.1
  
• Nick Foles 101.0
  
• Russell Wilson 100.5
  

So among that group, we have two Hall of Famers, one future Hall of Famer (Wilson, assuming), the three most promising young NFL QBs, and one possible outlier (Foles), who may not have a great career but did win a Super Bowl.

If you want to find a group to compare Jackson to, this is a way better set of comps than freaking Tim Tebow and Vince Young. For heaven's sake.

If you lower the threshold to passer rating of 95 you add Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott, so, another future Hall of Famer and another of the most promising young QBs.

So even if you ignore his running, he's put up passing numbers comparable with some of the best young QBs in NFL history. And almost everyone in this group went on to elite NFL careers as passers. Some of them, like Wilson, also run a lot and are way better comps for Jackson than running QBs who did not ever display NFL-level passing skills. 

If you lower the threshold to 95 you also get Colin Kaepernick, who is the most relevant comparable given the offensive scheme similarities. Kaepernick actually had a better Y/A and passed for more yards per game, and better yds per carry.

And BTW look up the formula for calculating QB rating... Jackson's low # of attempts coupled w/ the high # of TD passes HEAVILY skews that stat. That's an insane ratio where every 10th pass he threw was a TD. If you expect that to continue then yea sure... I guess let's just put him in the HoF right now.

 

[BINGBING]

Ten days without posting in the thread and he jumps back in to reply, bitter after the MVP announcement. 

 

[chinawildman]

Ten days without posting in the thread and he jumps back in to reply, bitter after the MVP announcement. 

Yes you've got me pegged... my happiness definitely hinges on Lamar Jackson's failure as a QB.

 

[BINGBING]

Yes you've got me pegged... my happiness definitely hinges on Lamar Jackson's failure as a QB.

Well let's hope not, because he just became the 2nd QB to ever win the MVP unanimously.  That would suck if you were to do that.

 

[Ilov80s]

If you lower the threshold to 95 you also get Colin Kaepernick, who is the most relevant comparable given the offensive scheme similarities. Kaepernick actually had a better Y/A and passed for more yards per game, and better yds per carry.

And BTW look up the formula for calculating QB rating... Jackson's low # of attempts coupled w/ the high # of TD passes HEAVILY skews that stat. That's an insane ratio where every 10th pass he threw was a TD. If you expect that to continue then yea sure... I guess let's just put him in the HoF right now.

In no season ever did Kap have more yards per carry than Lamar did in 2019. Yes ,Colin did have a season with more yards per game passing and a separate season with a higher yards/attempt (only played 7 games for that) but he never had one season where he better in both. 

 

[chinawildman]

In no season ever did Kap have more yards per carry than Lamar did in 2019. Yes ,Colin did have a season with more yards per game passing and a separate season with a higher yards/attempt (only played 7 games for that) but he never had one season where he better in both. 

Never said anything about 2019. Kaep averaged almost 2 more yds per carry than Jackson in their debut seasons, and in his last season he was .1 YPC less than 2019 Jackson. Splitting hairs here.

Regarding that 2nd stat you need to consider that because Kaepernick started only 7 games but played in 13 in 2012 so the listed ypg doesn't tell the whole story (for instance look at Jackson's ypg in 2018). Kaep accumulated 206 yds passing in his non-starts so if you're talking games STARTED, he threw for 230 ypg w/ a 8.3 ypa. Jackson in 2019 threw for 208 ypg w/ a 7.8 ypa.

 

[Ilov80s]

Never said anything about 2019. Kaep averaged almost 2 more yds per carry than Jackson in their debut seasons, and in his last season he was .1 YPC less than 2019 Jackson. Splitting hairs here.

Regarding that 2nd stat you need to consider that because Kaepernick started only 7 games but played in 13 in 2012 so the listed ypg doesn't tell the whole story (for instance look at Jackson's ypg in 2018). Kaep accumulated 206 yds passing in his non-starts so if you're talking games STARTED, he threw for 230 ypg w/ a 8.3 ypa. Jackson in 2019 threw for 208 ypg w/ a 7.8 ypa.

It's a lot of effort on your end but I am not sure what the point of it is. 

 

[chinawildman]

It's a lot of effort on your end but I am not sure what the point of it is. 

The point is Jackson's more likely to be the next Kaepernick than the next Steve Young. Like I've been saying, I like Lamar Jackson the player, but I don't like Lamar Jackson the stock. 

 

[Ilov80s]

The point is Jackson's more likely to be the next Kaepernick than the next Steve Young. Like I've been saying, I like Lamar Jackson the player, but I don't like Lamar Jackson the stock. 

He has already passed Kapernick's career now that he has a Pro Bowl, All Pro and MVP- none of which Kap ever got. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He has already passed Kapernick's career now that he has a Pro Bowl, All Pro and MVP- none of which Kap ever got. 

I'm going out on a limb and say LJ finishes up somewhere between Kap and Young.

 

[chinawildman]

He has already passed Kapernick's career now that he has a Pro Bowl, All Pro and MVP- none of which Kap ever got. 

The mention of Kaepernick is an analogy, not a one-to-one comparison. The point is he was a sell high after his debut season, which I believe Jackson should be. All the accolades you cite support the sell high even more so... to expect him to repeat his performance is unrealistic, to expect it to improve is pure wishful thinking.

 

[Ilov80s]

The mention of Kaepernick is an analogy, not a one-to-one comparison. The point is he was a sell high after his debut season, which I believe Jackson should be. All the accolades you cite support the sell high even more so... to expect him to repeat his performance is unrealistic, to expect it to improve is pure wishful thinking.

Of course Jackson is extremely unlikely to match this season. It might be a decade before a QB has a fantasy season that good again. If you can get a huge offer for him, I would consider it just like I would with any player coming off a historic season (CMc, Michael Thomas, Mahomes last year). However, I wouldn't go begging for a deal though. In my 6 pt passing TD league, even if Lamar Jackson drops 20% in fantasy ppg, he would have been QB between Wilson and Watson. In a 1QB league, that top 6 quality QB is perhaps a luxury and if your dynasty team is in bad shape at RB or WR, then it makes perfect sense to try to upgrade there through moving Lamar. 

 

[chinawildman]

Of course Jackson is extremely unlikely to match this season. It might be a decade before a QB has a fantasy season that good again. If you can get a huge offer for him, I would consider it just like I would with any player coming off a historic season (CMc, Michael Thomas, Mahomes last year). However, I wouldn't go begging for a deal though. In my 6 pt passing TD league, even if Lamar Jackson drops 20% in fantasy ppg, he would have been QB between Wilson and Watson. In a 1QB league, that top 6 quality QB is perhaps a luxury and if your dynasty team is in bad shape at RB or WR, then it makes perfect sense to try to upgrade there through moving Lamar. 

Understandable, I'm not suggesting that the sky will fall any time soon. But QBs that run a lot do carry more risk than guys that are more "scramble to pass".

 

[Ilov80s]

Understandable, I'm not suggesting that the sky will fall any time soon. But QBs that run a lot do carry more risk than guys that are more "scramble to pass".

Right but they also have a higher floor week to week and probably a higher ceiling. So that's the trade off. 

 

[CalBear]

The point is Jackson's more likely to be the next Kaepernick than the next Steve Young. Like I've been saying, I like Lamar Jackson the player, but I don't like Lamar Jackson the stock. 

Why is Jackson more likely to be the next Kaepernick than the next Young?

(And Kaepernick is out of the league because he's been blackballed, not because he can't play).

 

[chinawildman]

Why is Jackson more likely to be the next Kaepernick than the next Young?

(And Kaepernick is out of the league because he's been blackballed, not because he can't play).

Because the number of cases when running QBs fail to grasp the nuances of the NFL passing game and eventually flame out far outnumber the cases where the opposite has happened.

... and no, Kaepernick at the end of his career was terrible. He was benched for Gabbert and simply had no accuracy outside the numbers. Once defenses took away those TE seams he looked lost. Some will say he had a good QB rating or whatever in his last season playing but that was all compiled in garbage time... he was 1-10 as a starter had a sub 50 QBR.