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QB Mac Jones, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm going to go out on a limb and say, I think.....Brady may have been better than Mac Jones.
TheWinz
Footballguy
In 2010, the TE's combined for 18 TD's (exactly half of Brady's 36, not 37). They also got 3 TD's from some guy named Randy Moss.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
LOL. I never said Jones was going to turn into Brady. But looking at the beginning of Brady's and Jones' careers.
Brady first year as a starter (Year 2 with NE):
264-461-63.9-2843-18-12 (86.5 rating)
Brady second year as a starter (Year 3 with NE):
373-601-62.1-3764-28-14 (85.7 rating)
Jones first year as a starter (Year 1 with NE):
352-521-67.6-3801-22-13 (92.5 rating)
Brady saw a 30% increase in passing attempts from Year 1 to Year 2 as a starter. As I mentioned before, if Jones gets the same increase in passing attempts in Year 2 as a starter as TB12 did (and Jones produced at the same level as he did last year), his numbers would be in the 4900/30 TD range. Last year, that's pretty similar to what Derek Carr produced (4804/23) with a few extra passing TD. Carr ranked QB12 last year, which is why I suggested Mac Jones with more passing attempts could approach low end QB1 numbers.
That's all I said. Will Jones see as big an increase in passing attempts as Brady did? Probably not. But Jones should still see a decent increase in attempts for all the reasons I explained already. The 2002 Patriots look to be similar to the 2022 Patriots. The 02 team struggled on defense, ranking 17th in points allowed. NE had to throw more to stay in games, ended up 9-7, and had 9 games where they allowed 24+ points. They had to pass to stay in games . . . which is what could happen this year with Jones and the current squad.
None of that has anything to do with Brady going on to be a top QB several years in the future (ie, past his second year as a starter). It took Brady 5 seasons as a starter to break the 4,000-yard passing barrier. He's had 13 such seasons overall. I don't think it should ruffle any feathers to suggest that Mac Jones could hit 4,000 yards sooner than Brady did (and that doesn't mean Jones would be considered better than Brady if he did).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Actually this started because someone commented on the weakness of the Pats pass catchers, and then you showed how well 33 year old Tom Brady did when the Pats had subpar weapons in the passing game in the past to somehow imply that therefore Mac Jones would be ok this season.
All the information in this new post, while interesting to consider, doesn't really address that original point either.
Jones reaching 4,000 yards earlier in his career than Brady ever did wouldn't mean all that much either as the game has changed a lot even over that short of a time period.
I don't see Jones anywhere close to being a Top 12 QB in 2022. That's not a knock against a second year QB - it's just that QB is deeper than ever this season, and if the other second year starters like Wilson, Fields, Lawrence and/or Lance steps up he may not even be a Top 24 QB on a ppg basis. Obviously Jones could take a big leap as well though.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Let me articulate things better so we can leave out comparisons to Brady (or anyone else). There are always some QB that will miss time each season (injuries, suspensions, COVID, etc.). Jones could see a sizeable jump in passing attempts this year, not because he is so great or so developed, but because the NE defense could be very mediocre. Maybe that could get him into the Top 10 in passing attempts this year . . . not because he is such a great QB, but out of necessity.
Last season, there were only 8 QB that had 600 passing attempts (even in a 17-game season). Jones could be one of them (obviously he would need to stay healthy, but that goes without saying). Six of those 8 ended up in the Top 12 fantasy QB (based solely on total points). The other two (Big Ben and Lawrence) were much less efficient than Jones was.
To make things very basic, Jones could approach fantasy QB1 status just based on a much larger passing volume. Many of the projections I have seen for Jones this year have him pegged for around the same number of attempts this year as last year. IMO, his number of attempts (and therefore his totals) are probably too low. People can choose to agree or disagree on that, but that's part of the reason Jones is being projected around QB25.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
One thing to consider as well: Mac basically played through the entirety of his rookie off/pre-season last year with the 2s. Until very late in the pre-season it was Cam at QB for NE.
Not sure if it'll have a huge impact, but it's a factor IMO.
Not sure if it'll have a huge impact, but it's a factor IMO.
Chaka
Footballguy
Game has been over for a bit, did he actually miss time?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
No. Went for X-rays after the last NE drive / end of the game.
The Frankman
Footballguy
It's early, but Mac looks similar to last year. Accurate, quick decisions, but not much deep separation by his WRs. The pass to Parker in the EZ was perfect, should've been called PI, but no separation. He had help in the run game early, then Wilkins and Seiler made some stuff plays. Hopefully he's OK.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Things will potentially open up some when Thornton gets back in a few weeks. He was drawing double coverage and was a deep threat. The question will be how much they play him.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Chad Pennington 2.0
The Frankman
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
TampaMike19
Footballguy
God- this offense is going to suck isn't it?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is Hoyer the backup? If so, yes.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Given that no one on the Patriots was DRAFTED as a fantasy starter at any position in a 12-team league . . .
Based on MFL ADP: Jones QB21, Harris RB30, Stevenson RB35, Parker WR44, Meyers WR57, Bourne WR67, Henry TE15
it's safe to say that they aren't going to perform better WITHOUT Jones.
Todem
Footballguy
6-8 weeks easy.
High Ankle Sprains are really tough and take a while to heal properly. And if he needs surgery? 8 weeks for sure.
When you see severe high ankle sprains......he will have to be completely off the ankle for 4 weeks easily....like zero weight bearing on it. His season is most likely over for the most part.
Stinks for you Pat’s fans. He is a good solid young QB. Let him heal up the proper way.....the team is not going anywhere this season to begin with. That could be a chronic condition if you rush back.
High Ankle Sprains are really tough and take a while to heal properly. And if he needs surgery? 8 weeks for sure.
When you see severe high ankle sprains......he will have to be completely off the ankle for 4 weeks easily....like zero weight bearing on it. His season is most likely over for the most part.
Stinks for you Pat’s fans. He is a good solid young QB. Let him heal up the proper way.....the team is not going anywhere this season to begin with. That could be a chronic condition if you rush back.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BB mentioned 11 times in his weekly press conference that Mac is day-by-day and his health is improving daily. Hoyer would start if Jones can't go.
Q: Does Mac Jones have a high-ankle sprain? Bill Belichick: ""We'll take it day-by-day... DAY-BY-DAY... What do I look like? A doctor? An orthopedic surgeon? Day-by-day. You think I'm going to read the MRI? That's not my job."
Nothing beats smarmy, I don't give a pluck Bill. Given that they haven't placed Jones on IR (at least as of now), they are guessing he will heal up enough to not miss 4 games.
Q: Does Mac Jones have a high-ankle sprain? Bill Belichick: ""We'll take it day-by-day... DAY-BY-DAY... What do I look like? A doctor? An orthopedic surgeon? Day-by-day. You think I'm going to read the MRI? That's not my job."
Nothing beats smarmy, I don't give a pluck Bill. Given that they haven't placed Jones on IR (at least as of now), they are guessing he will heal up enough to not miss 4 games.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I don't think Coach BB sees it quite the same way.
Todem
Footballguy
LOL of course not. But the reality of a severe high ankle sprain is what it is and you can seriously endanger the rest of his career. They are going nowhere this season. **** him down for two months minimum.
But what do I know.
Runkle
Footballguy
Bill thinks he's smokescreening the Packers and making them waste time prepping for both QBs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There really isn’t much difference between Jones and Hoyer, and they are implementing the same game plan either way. The only smokescreen would be if they rolled out Zappe instead, who plays an entirely different style than those two do.
Runkle
Footballguy
Maybe that's what he wants you to think!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
People with "severe high ankle sprains" don't play the next week. This reeks of shenanigans by BB.
Either that or it was a misdiagnosis - which seems odd, since the day after he got hurt, there was talk of Jones going on the IR.
I vividly recall Deion Branch, who tore his ACL and had reconstructive knee surgery, being listed as "questionable" for months. It was due to that, in part, that the NFL changed the rules for team reporting of injuries, and it taught me to never, ever trust Bill Belichick when it comes to injury reporting.
ETA: Branch was a roster clogger on my bench for like 6 weeks.
Either that or it was a misdiagnosis - which seems odd, since the day after he got hurt, there was talk of Jones going on the IR.
I vividly recall Deion Branch, who tore his ACL and had reconstructive knee surgery, being listed as "questionable" for months. It was due to that, in part, that the NFL changed the rules for team reporting of injuries, and it taught me to never, ever trust Bill Belichick when it comes to injury reporting.
ETA: Branch was a roster clogger on my bench for like 6 weeks.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If NE felt Jones would only miss 3 games or less, they would not put him on IR. If they felt he would miss 4 weeks or more, they would have put him on IR. No one from NE said he suffered a severe high ankle sprain. That was the media trying to dig up a diagnosis from unnamed sources. I am not saying Jones isn't hurt, and I am not suggesting BB hasn't messed with the injury report over the years. But apparently, they have info that we don't. It doesn't really help or hurt NE all that much to just leave Jones on the active roster and deactivate him on game day (it takes a spot away from someone else . . . but that's probably a deep depth piece or a special teamer).People with "severe high ankle sprains" don't play the next week. This reeks of shenanigans by BB.
Either that or it was a misdiagnosis - which seems odd, since the day after he got hurt, there was talk of Jones going on the IR.
I vividly recall Deion Branch, who tore his ACL and had reconstructive knee surgery, being listed as "questionable" for months. It was due to that, in part, that the NFL changed the rules for team reporting of injuries, and it taught me to never, ever trust Bill Belichick when it comes to injury reporting.
ETA: Branch was a roster clogger on my bench for like 6 weeks.
Q: How is Mac Jones doing? Belichick: "Fine...he's in the training room. But there are a lot of guys in the training room." Says the decision on if Mac will play is up to the medical staff, like with any player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, sure - I 100% would not expect him to say "he's hurting bad, and hey, D-Coordinators shouldn't bother preparing for him if they're on our schedule for the next 4-6 weeks".
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Mac is quasi practicing. He’s been on the sidelines playing catch. He hasn’t been on the field running plays. He’s been telling people he might still play as his ankle is feeling better. I’d be very surprised if he plays this week. Bill being Bill he’ll probably list him as questionable. I have seen a couple of places suggest Mac will be a legit game time decision. Not sure at this stage of his career if Jones can not practice all week and still suit up. Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
