QB Rearview Analysis (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0..._rearviewqb.php

For four years now, with the help of Doug Drinen, I've written an article called Rearview QB -- I take last year's numbers and then adjust them for strength of schedule and actual games played (last year I started a thread stating I'd rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer).

The article is up again now -- I consider this to be a great starting point for your QB projections. It certainly wouldn't be my ending point, but it is a much better starting point than either FPs or FP/G.

Usually there a bunch of guys who are overvalued (played in a full 16 games, had an easy SOS) and guys who are undervalued (missed several partial games, had a hard schedule). This year there are a bunch of players that fit the latter description but almost none that fit the former. There's not a single person with a high ADP right now that had an easy schedule last year. But several players -- Matt Schaub in particular --look very exciting.

 

[Drop]

Regardless of what you think in terms of fantasy football value, do you think that David Garrard is a better QB than Carson Palmer today?

I would be interested in your thoughts on the issue. Not in terms of projected fantasy production but rather as football players overall. Strengths, weaknesses, unique abilities, etc.

 

[switz]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0..._rearviewqb.php

For four years now, with the help of Doug Drinen, I've written an article called Rearview QB -- I take last year's numbers and then adjust them for strength of schedule and actual games played (last year I started a thread stating I'd rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer).

The article is up again now -- I consider this to be a great starting point for your QB projections. It certainly wouldn't be my ending point, but it is a much better starting point than either FPs or FP/G.

Usually there a bunch of guys who are overvalued (played in a full 16 games, had an easy SOS) and guys who are undervalued (missed several partial games, had a hard schedule). This year there are a bunch of players that fit the latter description but almost none that fit the former. There's not a single person with a high ADP right now that had an easy schedule last year. But several players -- Matt Schaub in particular --look very exciting.

Ever think you might want to tone down that font size a little bit?ETA - this is a good article, didn't mean to take away from it by the criticism.

Also, I KNEW Thigpen was better than Cassel

Oh, and..

If he was morally the 13th-best QB last year, imagine his ceiling with Torry Holt, Tra Thomas, Eugene Monroe, Eben Britton, Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard?

What the heck do his morals have to do with his ability to put up points or not?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Regardless of what you think in terms of fantasy football value, do you think that David Garrard is a better QB than Carson Palmer today?I would be interested in your thoughts on the issue. Not in terms of projected fantasy production but rather as football players overall. Strengths, weaknesses, unique abilities, etc.

I don't want to get sidetracked here; I'd rather answer questions about the article in this thread.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If he was morally the 13th-best QB last year, imagine his ceiling with Torry Holt, Tra Thomas, Eugene Monroe, Eben Britton, Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard?

What the heck do his morals have to do with his ability to put up points or not?

I'm not sure if you're kidding or not, but in case you aren't:It gets pretty tedious writing things like "after adjusting for strength of schedule and partial games played, he was the 13th best QB last year." So I substituted the first part with the word morally; sorry for the confusion.

 

[switz]

If he was morally the 13th-best QB last year, imagine his ceiling with Torry Holt, Tra Thomas, Eugene Monroe, Eben Britton, Mike Thomas and Jarrett Dillard?

What the heck do his morals have to do with his ability to put up points or not?

I'm not sure if you're kidding or not, but in case you aren't:It gets pretty tedious writing things like "after adjusting for strength of schedule and partial games played, he was the 13th best QB last year." So I substituted the first part with the word morally; sorry for the confusion.

I was kidding around with you...

ETA - this is a good article, didn't mean to take away from it by the criticism.

...though I think you meant 'merely', maybe?Anyway, sorry to detract from the point of the article, which I found extremely beneficial!

 

[Drop]

Regardless of what you think in terms of fantasy football value, do you think that David Garrard is a better QB than Carson Palmer today?I would be interested in your thoughts on the issue. Not in terms of projected fantasy production but rather as football players overall. Strengths, weaknesses, unique abilities, etc.

I don't want to get sidetracked here; I'd rather answer questions about the article in this thread.

Fair enough, if you do want to get sidetracked at some point in the future I would still be interested in your take on it. Roughly what percentage of their games have you actually watched would be of interest to me as well.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Wish I had something of a little more interest, but all I can say is I'm totally diggin' that article.

I think Schaub is fairly exposed, though, isn't he?

Where do most people expect him to fall in the QB rankings?

I'd guess the following go ahead of him:

Brady

Brees

Manning

Warner

Mcnabb?

These guys I'm not sure about:

Romo

Rivers

Rodgers

Cutler

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I forgot to ask --- did you already do one of these for RBs, or do you plan to?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I forgot to ask --- did you already do one of these for RBs, or do you plan to?

A strength of schedule analysis for RBs would be pretty easy to do -- a adjusted games measure for RBs would be slightly more complicated. Doug Drinen did attempt to do that here, and it's certainly possible that we could one day combine that article with an '09 version of this one.

 

[puckalicious]

I forgot to ask --- did you already do one of these for RBs, or do you plan to?

A strength of schedule analysis for RBs would be pretty easy to do -- a adjusted games measure for RBs would be slightly more complicated. Doug Drinen did attempt to do that here, and it's certainly possible that we could one day combine that article with an '09 version of this one.

Um, yes please? WR & TE too?

 

[JGalligan]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0..._rearviewqb.php

For four years now, with the help of Doug Drinen, I've written an article called Rearview QB -- I take last year's numbers and then adjust them for strength of schedule and actual games played (last year I started a thread stating I'd rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer).

The article is up again now -- I consider this to be a great starting point for your QB projections. It certainly wouldn't be my ending point, but it is a much better starting point than either FPs or FP/G.

Usually there a bunch of guys who are overvalued (played in a full 16 games, had an easy SOS) and guys who are undervalued (missed several partial games, had a hard schedule). This year there are a bunch of players that fit the latter description but almost none that fit the former. There's not a single person with a high ADP right now that had an easy schedule last year. But several players -- Matt Schaub in particular --look very exciting.

Thank you for such fantastic breakfast reading!

 

[Banger]

Great stuff as always. Easily one of my favorite articles FBG's puts out.

I was really hoping to grab Schaub again on the cheap this year (he was sooo cheap last year) but it looks like he'll probably shoot up the ranks as we get closer to the season.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Great job Chase - easily my favorite annual article.

Will be interesting see if your objective or subjective measures of Russell turn out to be more accurate.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

*grumble* Wish people would stop talking up Schaub.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

*grumble* Wish people would stop talking up Schaub.

FWIW... Schaub went 8th to 10th in every dynasty startup I tracked this year. He's definitely not flying all that far under the radar.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

*grumble* Wish people would stop talking up Schaub.

FWIW... Schaub went 8th to 10th in every dynasty startup I tracked this year. He's definitely not flying all that far under the radar.

My point is, I'd like him to stay closer to the 10th pick, not the 8th (or higher if he keeps getting hyped like he is).

 

[ookook]

What would also be helpful would be another adjustment from SOS THIS YEAR.

That is, Schaub appears to have a tough SOS this year, compared to say McNabb whose looks easier.

This is useful for doing re-draft projections.

Chase, how close would the QB ranking after this added adjustment be to your expert rankings as posted (say, using a rank-order correlation)?

 

[ookook]

BTW Chase, what are your current QB projections/rankings?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Thanks everyone for the good words.

What would also be helpful would be another adjustment from SOS THIS YEAR.That is, Schaub appears to have a tough SOS this year, compared to say McNabb whose looks easier.This is useful for doing re-draft projections. Chase, how close would the QB ranking after this added adjustment be to your expert rankings as posted (say, using a rank-order correlation)?

Yes, a SOS adjustment for this year would be nice. But it should be something like a full adjustment for last year's SOS and then maybe a 40% adjustment (arbitrary number) for this year's SOS, to reflect the unpredictability of these things. FWIW, Clayton Gray does a great job with SOS analysis for the '09 season.Additionally, you could use the table at the bottom of the post to see the "true" value of each team's defense as a fantasy defense against QBs; because it is QB-adjusted, this should do a better job of predicting the tough (and easy) '09 defenses to play than just the raw numbers.