What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

QB Russell Wilson, NYG (4 Viewers)

Let me rephrase.

If Waddle and Hill live up to ADP expectations… Tua has to be at least QB10… where Russell is currently ranked.
The quickest answer is, visit the Preseason Team Projections, located here...

I used to think like you. How can a QB be so crappy in FF, but have strong WR's? It's quite easy actually, and happens every year. It just matters how the stats are distributed.
 
I'm looking at ADP consensus of 5 sites ppr (from this site)

Tyreek ADP: 24
Waddle ADP: 40

Sutton ADP: 37
Jeudy ADP: 59

Denver has Hamler have no idea who Miami's 3rd receiver is
Let's use the Clay projections as an example because they are free and we can compare without revealing any FBG paid content:


Hill wr8
Waddle wr17
Wilson wr68
Gesicki te15

Jeudy wr20
Sutton wr24
Hamler wr75
Okwuoingoihsouulnhusue$%#@ te24

This is why it's important to have projections rather than rankings. Clay has Wilson(qb10) and Tua(qb14) closer than most, and even then I think he has some questionable projections to make Wilson that far above Tua. First, he has Wilson with about twice as many rushing yards as Tua and I'm not so sure about that. Then he has Gesicki regressing to te15, lowest he's actually finished since he was a rookie. Then he has Okwu finishing as te24 and his coach has him playing in the 4th quarter of EXHIBITION GAMES because he "needs the work" so I'm not sure where he falls on the den te depth chart at this point.

Personally, I think both Hill/Waddle are being projected and drafted at their ceiling. But I also think Gesicki/Wilson are being projected closer to their floor so the overall MIA team projection isn't all that bad. Unless you think the whole den/Wilson thing isn't going to work and they are still a losing team and forced to pass the ball I'm having a hard time believing all the "Wilson could even finish top 5!" talk. Wilson is going from a losing team that was behind all season with better receivers to a winning team that (many think) will have the lead more often and worse receivers. Clay has Wilson passing for 4088 yards and he has done that before...... three times out of ten pro-bowl caliber seasons. Even if someone was in the minority and thought that Juedy/Sutton are just as good as Hill/Waddle I would argue the gap between Gesicki/Wilson and Okwu/Hamler is much bigger than most people think. I certainly think that gap is larger than Clay thinks it is.

It's not that I'm saying Tua > Wilson, I'm just saying I'd take Tua@~120ish over Wilson@~75ish in almost every draft I'm in.
Reports from camp are Gesicki is going to be used more as a blocker and less as a receiver this year.

Wilson has had at least 4000 yards 5 of last 7 seasons (rounding up from 3983 one year), and last year was hurt. There's an extra game this year and he's in an offense that will be less conservative so he'll hit that easily (if healthy)
 
Seems expensive - I know he had the finger injury last year but felt he was showing signs of decline, maybe that is just me and my bias.
 
@AdamSchefter


Breaking: Broncos and Russell Wilson just reached agreement on a five-year, $245 million contract extension that includes $165 million guaranteed, sources tell ESPN. Deal now ties Wilson to Denver for seven total years and $296 million. Another massive QB deal in the books.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1565320437436977157/photo/1

Seems expensive - I know he had the finger injury last year but felt he was showing signs of decline, maybe that is just me and my bias.

Holy SP!T but you knew it was coming, this is why Seattle said no thank you right now...

$245,000,000/5Yrs
$165,000,000 Guaranteed

What a steal by Denver
That's a lot of money for a soon-to-be backup qb.
 
I've expressed my views on Wilson. He is too enamored with the long ball, won't throw over the middle, and doesn't move the chains with his arm. He once moved the chains with his legs, but those days are seemingly gone. Last year Seattle was 32nd in time of possession, a whopping 2 minutes and 4 seconds behind the 31st worst team in time of possession.

Let me redefine my position. Wilson has been great and will continue to be good as a fantasy QB. I think Denver will discover that he is not so great as a real life QB and will rue the contract and the lost draft capital.
 
Let me redefine my position. Wilson has been great and will continue to be good as a fantasy QB. I think Denver will discover that he is not so great as a real life QB and will rue the contract and the lost draft capital.

You have to have a QB to make a SuperBowl run...were they supposed to wait around until they develop one from the draft?
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
You could say this about every team going for a big trade or free agent... if they don't make a super bowl run then was it a huge failure? I don't understand this line of thinking at all. If Denver didn't make a Super Bowl run with Lock at QB or by drafting another one, then was it a failure to NOT go after a star?
 
He is too enamored with the long ball

IMO to the extent he is "enamored with the long ball" it is because he has been one of the top deep passers in the NFL for several years, playing with excellent deep WRs like Lockett and Metcalf. His deep passing has been a huge positive for the Seahawks.

It was perhaps problematic last season when he came back too soon from the injury to his throwing hand, but that was circumstantial.

doesn't move the chains with his arm... He once moved the chains with his legs, but those days are seemingly gone

I can't tell if you are basing all of your perspective on 2021, when he hurt his throwing hand and came back to soon, which clearly negatively affected his performance for a number of games.

As recently as 2020, he was:
  • #7 in passing first downs, despite being #10 in passing attempts
  • #6 among QBs in rushing first downs and #6 in rushing attempts
Compared to his time in Seattle, he will play with an offensive head coach instead of Carroll, a defensive head coach with the most conservative offensive philosophy in the league. Compared to at least the past couple of seasons, he will play with a better supporting cast on offense when considering OL, RBs, WRs, and TEs... and also with a better defense.

All of that suggests that he will have a great season.
 
"As recently as 2020 he was #6 among QBs in rushing first downs and #6 in rushing attempt". Those legs are now two years older and his patented circle back move to buy time and let the WRs get open deep stopped working. Either he has gotten slower or pass rushers have gotten faster.

Wilson was the best fantasy QB in the first half of 2020 averaging 40.3 p/g (6 for TD, 1 pt per 20 yds thrown) and the last 8 games he averaged 22.7 points per game. In 2021 he averaged 22.8 p/g for the entire season. Admittedly Wilson came back too early after the finger injury, but if we take out his first two games back, he averaged 25.15 p/g good for 13th among QBs in p/g.

Pete Carroll stopped letting "Russ cook" because the league caught on and started taking away the deep ball and Wilson couldn't adapt and take advantage of the open short and intermediate routes that we viewers saw, but Russ did not.
 
Last edited:
"As recently as 2020 he was #6 among QBs in rushing first downs and #6 in rushing attempt". Those legs are now two years older and his patented circle back move to buy time and let the WRs get open deep stopped working. Either he has gotten slower or pass rushers have gotten faster.

Wilson was the best fantasy QB in the first half of 2020 averaging 40.3 p/g (6 for TD, 1 pt per 20 yds thrown) and the last 8 games he averaged 22.7 points per game. In 2021 he averaged 22.8 p/g for the entire season. Admittedly Wilson came back too early after the finger injury, but if we take out his first two games back, he averaged 25.15 p/g good for 13th among QBs in p/g.

Pete Carroll stopped letting "Russ cook" because the league caught on and started taking away the deep ball and Wilson couldn't adapt and take advantage of the open short and intermediate routes that we viewers saw, but Russ did not.

I will agree to disagree. You put it on Russ. I put it on Carroll and the finger injury. I'm confident in my take. We'll see.
 
Pete Carroll stopped letting "Russ cook" because the league caught on and started taking away the deep ball and Wilson couldn't adapt and take advantage of the open short and intermediate routes that we viewers saw, but Russ did not.
I don’t think it’s quite that simple. His OL wasn’t great, he was running for his life or getting hit most of the time, the RB situation was wonky, and frankly, Carroll’s offense was unimaginative.

Denver is a much better situation. I feel a top 7 QB season coming on.

We’ll see soon enough. I don’t know if we’ll get “Russ in his prime” Russ, but I could see them catching lighting in a bottle in Denver this year. The play action should be lit.
 
I am absolutely targeting Russel Wilson this year. This reminds me of Payton Manning going to the Broncos after being injured, and going to a much better supporting cast. Russel Wilson has the potential to pass 40 tds this year. He is one of the best QBs in the league, and was hindered by terrible play calling, a terrible o-line, and just a bad overall team. I would argue that he is so talented that the Seahawks troubles were "masked" because he was able to carry the team on his shoulders. There is a reason he wanted out. I think the Broncos will be a favorite in the AFC to contend this year, and that their offense will be great. His value in auction leagues, and his overall ADP make him a guy I am heavily targeting because of his potential to hit 4500 yds passing, 40 + TDS, and not to mention his rushing ability. He is like getting Josh Allen at a cheaper price. Broncos have a solid defense, and he has a great RB duo that will keep defenses honest. These are the kind of educated gambles that you want to take in fantasy football. The Broncos are building the offense around his skill set, and not holding him back. Next year he will be worth $20+ in auction. This year you can get him for $5
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
Exactly. As you point out there are alternative pathways other than hitting the QB lottery in the draft.

I doubt it will be this year for the Broncos. They aren't as SB-ready talent-wise or as deep roster-wise as the Bucs and Rams were.

It took Peyton 2 years to reach the big dance and 3 to win after joining the Broncos in 2012. I would hope for a 2-4 year window for Russ given his age, the youth of the offensive skill players (Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, etc.), and the newness of the coaching staff/system.
 

Wow:

Then came the clearest sign yet to Wilson's camp that Seattle's interest in other quarterbacks was something more than due diligence. The Seahawks, according to someone in Wilson's camp and the Seahawks' front office, called the Cleveland Browns before the 2018 draft to discuss a trade that would have swapped Wilson for the No. 1 overall pick. Wilson's agent, Mark Rodgers, found out.

The Browns weren't interested, but Seattle's flirtation motivated Rodgers to secure a no-trade clause when he negotiated Wilson's four-year, $140 million extension the following April.

If true, the Browns could have had Wilson from 2018 to present instead of Mayfield and now Watson, with his baggage and ridiculous amount of guaranteed money.
 

Wow:

Then came the clearest sign yet to Wilson's camp that Seattle's interest in other quarterbacks was something more than due diligence. The Seahawks, according to someone in Wilson's camp and the Seahawks' front office, called the Cleveland Browns before the 2018 draft to discuss a trade that would have swapped Wilson for the No. 1 overall pick. Wilson's agent, Mark Rodgers, found out.

The Browns weren't interested, but Seattle's flirtation motivated Rodgers to secure a no-trade clause when he negotiated Wilson's four-year, $140 million extension the following April.

If true, the Browns could have had Wilson from 2018 to present instead of Mayfield and now Watson, with his baggage and ridiculous amount of guaranteed money.
Incredible.
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
Exactly. As you point out there are alternative pathways other than hitting the QB lottery in the draft.

I doubt it will be this year for the Broncos. They aren't as SB-ready talent-wise or as deep roster-wise as the Bucs and Rams were.

It took Peyton 2 years to reach the big dance and 3 to win after joining the Broncos in 2012. I would hope for a 2-4 year window for Russ given his age, the youth of the offensive skill players (Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, etc.), and the newness of the coaching staff/system.

I don't see Russ as being on the same talent/ability level with any of the QBs you mention here either (Brady, Stafford, Peyton)
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
Exactly. As you point out there are alternative pathways other than hitting the QB lottery in the draft.

I doubt it will be this year for the Broncos. They aren't as SB-ready talent-wise or as deep roster-wise as the Bucs and Rams were.

It took Peyton 2 years to reach the big dance and 3 to win after joining the Broncos in 2012. I would hope for a 2-4 year window for Russ given his age, the youth of the offensive skill players (Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, etc.), and the newness of the coaching staff/system.

I don't see Russ as being on the same talent/ability level with any of the QBs you mention here either (Brady, Stafford, Peyton)
Until his injury he was the highest rated QB in the NFL last year.

IMO, he’s better than Stafford, & not all that far below PManning or Brady.
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
Exactly. As you point out there are alternative pathways other than hitting the QB lottery in the draft.

I doubt it will be this year for the Broncos. They aren't as SB-ready talent-wise or as deep roster-wise as the Bucs and Rams were.

It took Peyton 2 years to reach the big dance and 3 to win after joining the Broncos in 2012. I would hope for a 2-4 year window for Russ given his age, the youth of the offensive skill players (Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, etc.), and the newness of the coaching staff/system.

I don't see Russ as being on the same talent/ability level with any of the QBs you mention here either (Brady, Stafford, Peyton)
Until his injury he was the highest rated QB in the NFL last year.

IMO, he’s better than Stafford, & not all that far below PManning or Brady.

Ratings schmatings.

He is nowhere near the passer any of those guys are/were.

Better than Dak, but still not at that level throwing.
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
Exactly. As you point out there are alternative pathways other than hitting the QB lottery in the draft.

I doubt it will be this year for the Broncos. They aren't as SB-ready talent-wise or as deep roster-wise as the Bucs and Rams were.

It took Peyton 2 years to reach the big dance and 3 to win after joining the Broncos in 2012. I would hope for a 2-4 year window for Russ given his age, the youth of the offensive skill players (Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, etc.), and the newness of the coaching staff/system.

I don't see Russ as being on the same talent/ability level with any of the QBs you mention here either (Brady, Stafford, Peyton)
Until his injury he was the highest rated QB in the NFL last year.

IMO, he’s better than Stafford, & not all that far below PManning or Brady.

Ratings schmatings.

He is nowhere near the passer any of those guys are/were.

Better than Dak, but still not at that level throwing.
He doesn’t have a knack for the pick-6 like Stafford, but go on.
 
What does everyone make of the Russ not throwing to a receiver until almost the end of the first half? My grampa got sick tonight and I didn't get to watch the first half
 
This is great. NFL needs a good villain, and Russ is a great candidate.

DEN needs to take some notes from Pete Carroll. He knows how to properly run a conservative game plan to protect a....um... limited QB.
 
I've been Wilson's harshest critic in this forum. He didn't look like the Wilson of old, but it's a new team, it's a new scheme, it's the first game, and an emotional setting. My knock on Wilson was his obsession with the deep ball, over just moving the chains. To Wilson's credit (or the coaching staff's) he dinked and dunked his way to 340 yards. For the most part Wilson still failed to use the middle of the field, but to me the most obvious sign of decline was his failure to use his legs. He had multiple opportunities to run for first downs. The Seattle Wilson would have taken off as little as two years ago. Wilson stayed in the pocked most of the night, but from the pocket he mostly threw outside to his backs and TEs.

Seattle schemed to take away the deep ball and other teams will follow suit, just as they did in the second half of 2020 and all of 2021.
 
And if they don't make a super bowl run............?
Then most Broncos fans will be just fine b/c at least they had the balls to push in the chips. Much better than wallowing in mediocrity.
I'm no Denver fan but I agree and they did it once with Manning, they're trying it again. The Bucs won a Super Bowl with a journeyman and another QB at the ripe age of 43, not everyone can be so lucky and draft their way to the Super Bowl. The Rams just got done trading one QB for another in Matt Stafford and won the Super Bowl. Brady new team-Super Bowl, Matt Stafford new team-Super Bowl, will it be 3 in a row?
Exactly. As you point out there are alternative pathways other than hitting the QB lottery in the draft.

I doubt it will be this year for the Broncos. They aren't as SB-ready talent-wise or as deep roster-wise as the Bucs and Rams were.

It took Peyton 2 years to reach the big dance and 3 to win after joining the Broncos in 2012. I would hope for a 2-4 year window for Russ given his age, the youth of the offensive skill players (Javonte, Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, etc.), and the newness of the coaching staff/system.

I don't see Russ as being on the same talent/ability level with any of the QBs you mention here either (Brady, Stafford, Peyton)
Until his injury he was the highest rated QB in the NFL last year.

IMO, he’s better than Stafford, & not all that far below PManning or Brady.

Ratings schmatings.

He is nowhere near the passer any of those guys are/were.

Better than Dak, but still not at that level throwing.
He doesn’t have a knack for the pick-6 like Stafford, but go on.
He just isn't the guy that will make a good team great.. like Manning, Stafford, Brady did. He was never a great passer, and now when he loses a step... :shrug:
 
I've been Wilson's harshest critic in this forum. He didn't look like the Wilson of old, but it's a new team, it's a new scheme, it's the first game, and an emotional setting. My knock on Wilson was his obsession with the deep ball, over just moving the chains. To Wilson's credit (or the coaching staff's) he dinked and dunked his way to 340 yards. For the most part Wilson still failed to use the middle of the field, but to me the most obvious sign of decline was his failure to use his legs. He had multiple opportunities to run for first downs. The Seattle Wilson would have taken off as little as two years ago. Wilson stayed in the pocked most of the night, but from the pocket he mostly threw outside to his backs and TEs.

Seattle schemed to take away the deep ball and other teams will follow suit, just as they did in the second half of 2020 and all of 2021.
He targeted/hit Sutton a few times over the middle. That's something that Wilson and the OC should notice and exploit more often. We'll see.
 
Wilson 5'10" stature makes it hard for him to see plays developing over the middle quickly. Sutton was wide open and Russell hit him after standing in the pocket a long time.
 
Wilson 5'10" stature makes it hard for him to see plays developing over the middle quickly. Sutton was wide open and Russell hit him after standing in the pocket a long time.
Always thought this. Little dude standing behind big dudes, short middle area is tough to throw into.
 
Was going to quote a single post, but saw that there were multiples - so I won’t.

Just wanted to say that Russ Wilson is fine. He’s been 5’10” his entire career.

Nathaniel Hackett is a bad coach. Horrible time management. And he kept trying to be the smartest guy on the sideline - Russ should be calling whatever damn play he wants at this point in his career.

Get out of the way, Hackett.
 
Was going to quote a single post, but saw that there were multiples - so I won’t.

Just wanted to say that Russ Wilson is fine. He’s been 5’10” his entire career.

Nathaniel Hackett is a bad coach. Horrible time management. And he kept trying to be the smartest guy on the sideline - Russ should be calling whatever damn play he wants at this point in his career.

Get out of the way, Hackett.
I had that thought as well. Gonna have to guess Russ is calling a lot more plays going forward. Wonder if the delays of game were due to conflicting ideas between Russ/Hackett, if Hackett was just under water, or all the above.
 
Wilson didn't look great to me. Perhaps it was the 12th man; the challenge of returning to Seattle for your first game as a Bronco; or not enough pre-season snaps. Penalties, rushed snap... essentially the Broncos gave the game away.

Take it as "all of the above" and week one growing pains. I look for them to rebound.
 
On a scale of 1 to 2015 Peyton, how concerned are we?

I don't know how much of it is him being cooked, and how much is Hackett being the absolute worst, but I'm really starting to wonder how this gets better
 

Russell Wilson completed 20-of-33 passes for 184 scoreless yards in Denver's 11-10, Week 3 win over the 49ers.​

Wilson was dedicated to the craft of throwing swing and checkdown passes to his backs, racking up 12 targets to Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, and Mike Boone. He also showcased rough accuracy on many of his third-down throws. Nevertheless, he was able to scramble out and create on third-and-10 with 8:16 left in the game and find Kendall Hinton for 27 yards, and scamper forward for 12 more yards on third-and-6 later in the drive. Eventually the Broncos finally found the end zone to take a slim lead -- one of few Broncos drives that ended without boos from the home crowd -- and held on for dear life. The Broncos travel to Vegas to face a desperate 0-3 Raiders team in Week 4, and desperate also probably describes the state of Russ' fantasy prospects.
Sep 25, 2022, 11:26 PM ET
 
I think the situation and coaching, makes him borderline droppable in 10, possibly even 12 teamers.
I'm in one particular 12 teamer, and I'm literally debating dropping him outright for Trevor Lawrence, and possibly even Marcus Mariota.
Each week it looks like his upside is slowly vanishing.
I noticed LAST WEEK he threw a couple "wounded duck" passes.......even if he is not slowly declining, all things considered, I'm debating going the streaming route.
I said about 3 years ago I was done drafting Wilson. After the start to this season, now I KNOW I'm done with him. I can't put it all squarely on Russell Wilson's shoulders though, some of it is likely scheme and coaching......... but that doesn't matter when it comes to my teams fantasy points.
 
I saw potential in the first couple of weeks but last night dashed those hopes. Not being able to execute at home with the talent on this offense is a red flag. It's not working and it looks like it could actually get worse. So yeah, definitely droppable.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top