QB Russell Wilson, NYG (7 Viewers)

[Grahamburn]

They aren't "paying to get rid of him." The 85mm cap hit is sunk cost.

Compounding an already bad contract by keeping him and paying cash for 2025 when he clearly isn't the answer is what would really be dumb

No. 39 mill of that 85 mill is not sunk cost. That's this years money.

They are saving the salary next year, but if they cut him next year, it's 50 mill in dead cap. They are cutting him this year, and eating 85 mill. So they could start Russell Wilson this year, and then cut him next year, and eat 50 mill in 25/26.

They are paying him to leave.

I wish someone would pay me to leave. Has everyone at football guys considered putting together a GoFundMe?

I was once offered $100 to leave this board then paid $101 to stay. True story.

winning

 

[Faust]

As Russell Wilson, Broncos divorce, where will he land next? NFL voices weigh in – and on another key question

 

[Joe Bryant]

Footballguys' Bob Harris on Broncos Releasing Wilson.

Denver Broncos Inform Russell Wilson He Will Be Released - Instant Reaction

The Denver Broncos informed quarterback Russell Wilson he'll be released. What does it mean for his 2024 fantasy football outlook? Find out in this instant reaction article!

www.footballguys.com

 

[Grahamburn]

3 of the Biggest Dead Cap Hits in NFL History

 

[-OZ-]

3 of the Biggest Dead Cap Hits in NFL History

Legendary

 

[Anarchy99]

Can people confirm that Wilson has offset language in his contract and that the team that signs him would have to pay the first $39 million of his contract for this year to Denver? I bring this up because I have heard talking heads on tv and radio wondering how much a team would have to pay him this year and how much he would make on top of what DEN is paying him. For example, Boston sports talk this morning guessed the Pats could get him for $15M this year. I don't believe that anyone will give him more than $39M for this season, so any team that gives him more than the league minimum this season is dumb. In this example, league minimum or $15M would not get Wilson any extra money.

That being said, if he signs a multi-year deal, I'm not sure if a team could structure it as league minimum for this year and regular market rate for any others. Does offset apply to AAV or the actual dollar amount for Year 1 only?

 

[Tau837]

Can people confirm that Wilson has offset language in his contract and that the team that signs him would have to pay the first $39 million of his contract for this year to Denver? I bring this up because I have heard talking heads on tv and radio wondering how much a team would have to pay him this year and how much he would make on top of what DEN is paying him. For example, Boston sports talk this morning guessed the Pats could get him for $15M this year. I don't believe that anyone will give him more than $39M for this season, so any team that gives him more than the league minimum this season is dumb. In this example, league minimum or $15M would not get Wilson any extra money.

That being said, if he signs a multi-year deal, I'm not sure if a team could structure it as league minimum for this year and regular market rate for any others. Does offset apply to AAV or the actual dollar amount for Year 1 only?

Russell Wilson contract, explained: Why veteran QB may sign for league minimum after Broncos release

It will be difficult for Wilson to make more than that $39 million this season even if he signs a deal with another club. His deal with the Broncos contains offset language, meaning that if Wilson signs with another team, Denver would subtract Wilson's earnings from his new team from what it owes him...

Wilson has 10-plus seasons of NFL experience. As such, his minimum salary is set at $1.21 million in 2024. So, if he accepts a deal worth that much, the Broncos would be on the hook for roughly $37.79 million.

I expect he will be the week 1 starter for the Falcons, Raiders, or Steelers.

 

[Max Power]

So Wilson makes the same money if he doesn't play at all this year? What is the likelihood he sits out a year?

 

[JohnnyU]

Can people confirm that Wilson has offset language in his contract and that the team that signs him would have to pay the first $39 million of his contract for this year to Denver? I bring this up because I have heard talking heads on tv and radio wondering how much a team would have to pay him this year and how much he would make on top of what DEN is paying him. For example, Boston sports talk this morning guessed the Pats could get him for $15M this year. I don't believe that anyone will give him more than $39M for this season, so any team that gives him more than the league minimum this season is dumb. In this example, league minimum or $15M would not get Wilson any extra money.

That being said, if he signs a multi-year deal, I'm not sure if a team could structure it as league minimum for this year and regular market rate for any others. Does offset apply to AAV or the actual dollar amount for Year 1 only?

Russell Wilson contract, explained: Why veteran QB may sign for league minimum after Broncos release

It will be difficult for Wilson to make more than that $39 million this season even if he signs a deal with another club. His deal with the Broncos contains offset language, meaning that if Wilson signs with another team, Denver would subtract Wilson's earnings from his new team from what it owes him...

Wilson has 10-plus seasons of NFL experience. As such, his minimum salary is set at $1.21 million in 2024. So, if he accepts a deal worth that much, the Broncos would be on the hook for roughly $37.79 million.

I expect he will be the week 1 starter for the Falcons, Raiders, or Steelers.

Didn't the Steelers say they are not interested in Wilson. Maybe the Falcons aren't either, can't remember. I thought I read that, but it may have been just the Steelers.

 

[-OZ-]

So Wilson makes the same money if he doesn't play at all this year? What is the likelihood he sits out a year?

Pretty low. Although he could pull a Flacco.

 

[Buckna]

Can people confirm that Wilson has offset language in his contract and that the team that signs him would have to pay the first $39 million of his contract for this year to Denver? I bring this up because I have heard talking heads on tv and radio wondering how much a team would have to pay him this year and how much he would make on top of what DEN is paying him. For example, Boston sports talk this morning guessed the Pats could get him for $15M this year. I don't believe that anyone will give him more than $39M for this season, so any team that gives him more than the league minimum this season is dumb. In this example, league minimum or $15M would not get Wilson any extra money.

That being said, if he signs a multi-year deal, I'm not sure if a team could structure it as league minimum for this year and regular market rate for any others. Does offset apply to AAV or the actual dollar amount for Year 1 only?

Russell Wilson contract, explained: Why veteran QB may sign for league minimum after Broncos release

It will be difficult for Wilson to make more than that $39 million this season even if he signs a deal with another club. His deal with the Broncos contains offset language, meaning that if Wilson signs with another team, Denver would subtract Wilson's earnings from his new team from what it owes him...

Wilson has 10-plus seasons of NFL experience. As such, his minimum salary is set at $1.21 million in 2024. So, if he accepts a deal worth that much, the Broncos would be on the hook for roughly $37.79 million.

I expect he will be the week 1 starter for the Falcons, Raiders, or Steelers.

Some of the supposition I have seen is that a team could structure to pay him league minimum this year and have big money kick-in in year 2. The question would be is a team willing to commit to multiple years as they would get him very cheap in year 1 but then it would be a bigger hit in year 2 thru whatever length they sign him. I am sure some creative GM's out there are pretty interested in working something up. The question we will find out in a week or two will be how deep do they want to go in year 2 with bonus/salary on a guy that two teams have now paid dearly to get rid of in the past two years? I think some team will give him something pretty big like guaranteed option bonus in year two they can prorate to entice him to sign with them instead of someone else or sit out for a year. FWIW, I 100% agree he'll be starting for someone, I am just very curious what the contract will look like.

 

[Grahamburn]

So Wilson makes the same money if he doesn't play at all this year? What is the likelihood he sits out a year?

Voluntarily sits out or doesn't have any interest? NFL teams are going to be pretty skeptical about bring him into their locker rooms.

 

[Marauder]

How about an incentive laden contract? If someone offered him the vet minimum salary but with a lot of incentives, is Denver still on the hook for the $37+ million? I would assume so since they are paying him weekly throughout the season.

 

[Max Power]

So Wilson makes the same money if he doesn't play at all this year? What is the likelihood he sits out a year?

Voluntarily sits out or doesn't have any interest? NFL teams are going to be pretty skeptical about bring him into their locker rooms.

Voluntarily sits out. He gets 39 mil this year either way. Football is a brutal game on the body so I can see a situation where he wouldn't play. It would seem to me that teams would need to offer a multi-year contract to be worth it.

 

[osubuckeyeman]

So Wilson makes the same money if he doesn't play at all this year? What is the likelihood he sits out a year?

As likely as he plays. It's basically up to him. I'm sure he will take a long hard look at all his options. It could be a while before he makes a decision. He can sit and see how everything unfolds. He can wait till there is an injury and then be available for that team. It could be a bigger payout for him than not waiting. He also can just chill if that does not happen. If I was his advisor this is most likely the advice I would give him. The point is he can do as he wishes now. He is no longer under contract.

 

[massraider]

Voluntarily sits out. He gets 39 mil this year either way. Football is a brutal game on the body so I can see a situation where he wouldn't play. It would seem to me that teams would need to offer a multi-year contract to be worth it.

He's only 35. Russell probably thinks he has another 100 mill in potential earnings.

Not gonna make much 2025 money if he sits out a year.

 

[massraider]

How about an incentive laden contract? If someone offered him the vet minimum salary but with a lot of incentives, is Denver still on the hook for the $37+ million?

Yes, BUT:

What if the incentives triggered a bonus the following year? That way you only pay him 1.2 mill this year (THANKS DENVER), but can reward him in 2025 if he plays well.

An incentive that triggers future payments would be a good way for a team to entice Russ.

 

[Bri]

This scenario is really interesting. On the radio, they mentioned him sitting n waiting and filling in for Aaron Rodgers last year as an example.
Rapport with WRs and OL, time in offense...there's plenty of issues with this concept of sitting n waiting but it's very interesting

 

[Anarchy99]

How about an incentive laden contract? If someone offered him the vet minimum salary but with a lot of incentives, is Denver still on the hook for the $37+ million?

Yes, BUT:

What if the incentives triggered a bonus the following year? That way you only pay him 1.2 mill this year (THANKS DENVER), but can reward him in 2025 if he plays well.

An incentive that triggers future payments would be a good way for a team to entice Russ.

Why the need for incentives? Can't a team just give him a 3-year contract with $1.2M this year and $40 million each for two additional years? I don't see him sitting out the year or being a backup. I don't think any long-tern, SB winning QB ever wants to sit.

 

[massraider]

Why the need for incentives? Can't a team just give him a 3-year contract with $1.2M this year and $40 million each for two additional years?

Sure they can.

I don't think anyone wants to.

 

[Max Power]

Voluntarily sits out. He gets 39 mil this year either way. Football is a brutal game on the body so I can see a situation where he wouldn't play. It would seem to me that teams would need to offer a multi-year contract to be worth it.

He's only 35. Russell probably thinks he has another 100 mill in potential earnings.

Not gonna make much 2025 money if he sits out a year.

I'm sure he thinks he does. Maybe I'm skeptical he gets that. He's gone 17-27 over the last three years with a QBR below the league average.

I can't imagine he plays on a 1 year contract. I also can't imagine a team giving him a long term deal for what he thinks he's worth. Its just interesting because the only incentive this season is to prove he's worth another contract. If he doesn't prove that in his first year with a new team, his time might be over in the NFL sooner than he thinks.

 

[Anarchy99]

Why the need for incentives? Can't a team just give him a 3-year contract with $1.2M this year and $40 million each for two additional years?

Sure they can.

I don't think anyone wants to.

I agree that teams shouldn't want to . . . but I am guessing a team will.

 

[massraider]

I'm sure he thinks he does. Maybe I'm skeptical he gets that. He's gone 17-27 over the last three years with a QBR below the league average.

I can't imagine he plays on a 1 year contract. I also can't imagine a team giving him a long term deal for what he thinks he's worth. Its just interesting because the only incentive this season is to prove he's worth another contract. If he doesn't prove that in his first year with a new team, his time might be over in the NFL sooner than he thinks.

I may agree.

But unless you think Russell thinks he stinks, what do you think the chances are he sits out?

He is going to try and maximize his earnings. The best way is to NOT sit out.

 

[ChiefD]

I feel for Denver fans. That whole thing with Wilson set that team back 10 years by the time this is all said and done.

Biggest colossal failure in sports history? Might be worth a thread on its own.

 

[JohnnyU]

I feel for Denver fans. That whole thing with Wilson set that team back 10 years by the time this is all said and done.

Biggest colossal failure in sports history? Might be worth a thread on its own.

Look at the 49'ers. They gave the farm for Lance and they recovered well and kept on ticking.

 

[-OZ-]

Why the need for incentives? Can't a team just give him a 3-year contract with $1.2M this year and $40 million each for two additional years?

Sure they can.

I don't think anyone wants to.

Obviously Cleveland did this for their ———. Someone will do it for Russ.

 

[-OZ-]

I feel for Denver fans. That whole thing with Wilson set that team back 10 years by the time this is all said and done.

Biggest colossal failure in sports history? Might be worth a thread on its own.

Look at the 49'ers. They gave the farm for Lance and they recovered well and kept on ticking.

Yes but Lance didn’t crush their cap.

 

[Max Power]

I'm sure he thinks he does. Maybe I'm skeptical he gets that. He's gone 17-27 over the last three years with a QBR below the league average.

I can't imagine he plays on a 1 year contract. I also can't imagine a team giving him a long term deal for what he thinks he's worth. Its just interesting because the only incentive this season is to prove he's worth another contract. If he doesn't prove that in his first year with a new team, his time might be over in the NFL sooner than he thinks.

I may agree.

But unless you think Russell thinks he stinks, what do you think the chances are he sits out?

He is going to try and maximize his earnings. The best way is to NOT sit out.

You're probably right but its the flip side of the spectrum from the players who complain about the Franchise tag and playing on one year deals. A bad injury and their career is over. Russ has maximized his 2024 earnings and would be subjected to the same injury risk for no monetary gain this season, but a theoretical bigger pay day in 2025.

If he sits in 2024 he still has a market in 2025. Definitely not as big if he plays well in 2024, but possibly better if he plays poorly this year. Like you said its Russ betting on himself and he seems like the type to do that.

 

[JohnnyU]

I feel for Denver fans. That whole thing with Wilson set that team back 10 years by the time this is all said and done.

Biggest colossal failure in sports history? Might be worth a thread on its own.

Look at the 49'ers. They gave the farm for Lance and they recovered well and kept on ticking.

Yes but Lance didn’t crush their cap.

True

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I expect he will be the week 1 starter for the Falcons, Raiders, or Steelers.

Raiders seem like the most likely. I’m not sure why I feel this way - gut call.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I feel for Denver fans. That whole thing with Wilson set that team back 10 years by the time this is all said and done.

Biggest colossal failure in sports history? Might be worth a thread on its own.

Look at the 49'ers. They gave the farm for Lance and they recovered well and kept on ticking.

Niners got lucky as hell with Purdy, too.
If the cap hadn’t gone up so much this year they would have been completely hosed even with their Purdy good fortune.

 

[Bri]

I feel for Denver fans. That whole thing with Wilson set that team back 10 years by the time this is all said and done.

Biggest colossal failure in sports history? Might be worth a thread on its own.

This will be pretty common soon enough. QBs make too much if they don't win.
Wentz, twice, was a huge hit for his team.
Watson appears to be close to a bust.
Rodgers was a big cap hit in 2024 for two franchises and played almost as many snaps with each.

The believable lie of every job market salary increase is everyone will make a lot of $. The cap has gone way up for all. Meanwhile a lot of teams in the NFL only have 10 or so players making notable $

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Chalk it up to a nasty divorce. Once they benched him for those last couple games he obviously was done in Denver.

Sometimes it’s just best to move on.

it was actually done when they asked him to adjust his contract or be benched between the KC and the BUF games......

 

[menobrown]

I understand why he'd only play for the league minimum this year due to offsets but I had some questions about that.

Do the offsets automatically expire after the 2024 season, at which point he'd be able to keep whatever he is paid without it reducing what Denver is paying him? Or do the offsets exist until he reaches $39M or whatever amount Denver owes him? In this case he'd likely never be more then a league minimum type signing.

I ask because this has always been on my mind about him taking a league minimum contract for the 2024 season and if he had a loophole of sorts to be in position to request guarantees for future years if he gives you the 2024 season at minimum.

And I'm sure someone will mention it so let me get ahead of it and say even a very diminished Russel Wilson who may or may not be a starting QB any longer is worth more then the league minimum so go away with the notion he's not in any position to ask for any future guarantees if he's giving you 2024 at league minimum.

 

[Capella]

Why the need for incentives? Can't a team just give him a 3-year contract with $1.2M this year and $40 million each for two additional years?

Why would any team do that?

 

[Anarchy99]

Why the need for incentives? Can't a team just give him a 3-year contract with $1.2M this year and $40 million each for two additional years?

Why would any team do that?

Because they need a QB? Again, I agree that they SHOULDN'T do that, but there are roughly 10 teams in the market for a QB. Some may re-sign the guy they have, others may draft or trade for one, etc. I don't know what the "going rate" would be for Wilson, but there are 11 guys making that AAV. $40 million is actually $8.5M less per year than Wilson was making for DEN. If Daniel Jones got $40M a year, how much is Wilson worth in a year when the salary cap shot way up? I don't know what the market value is for Wilson (or if teams think he is still a worthy starter or if he is viewed as someone to avoid). The point being, there are always teams looking for QBs, and someone will likely give him a contract that most of us would question.

 

[Boston]

Ladies and gentleman let’s give a warm and unexpected welcome to the newest member of the bridge-QB club…Russell Wilson.

 

[Tau837]

I understand why he'd only play for the league minimum this year due to offsets but I had some questions about that.

Do the offsets automatically expire after the 2024 season, at which point he'd be able to keep whatever he is paid without it reducing what Denver is paying him? Or do the offsets exist until he reaches $39M or whatever amount Denver owes him? In this case he'd likely never be more then a league minimum type signing.

I ask because this has always been on my mind about him taking a league minimum contract for the 2024 season and if he had a loophole of sorts to be in position to request guarantees for future years if he gives you the 2024 season at minimum.

And I'm sure someone will mention it so let me get ahead of it and say even a very diminished Russel Wilson who may or may not be a starting QB any longer is worth more then the league minimum so go away with the notion he's not in any position to ask for any future guarantees if he's giving you 2024 at league minimum.

My understanding is that the offset language applies only in the year(s) in which the team that releases the player must pay guaranteed salary, making it time-driven, not value-driven. In this case, Denver has to pay Wilson guaranteed salary in 2024, so the offset language applies in 2024 only. I'm not sure where to find confirmation on this.

 

[ghostguy123]

It's possible Denver was just a bad spot for him.
If he goes somewhere and plays well, he'll get another nice contract.
Who has a good team for a "prove it" year? Steelers perhaps? Raiders blah. Maybe Atlanta fits that description

 

[paytonsdaman]

Barring an injury, only Pittsburgh of the QB needy teams has a low amount of cap space (pre-Free Agency) and that doesn't seem like a fit (he would have to compete to be the starter).

I'd wager most teams don't want him as a distraction in the offseason. He's quirky and may not be talented enough at this point in his career to be brought in as the starter. He would have been cut earlier if it weren't for his salary. Now he is willing to take a "cuttable salary". It seems like he is on a Wentz trajectory at this point in his career.

 

[massraider]

Because they need a QB? Again, I agree that they SHOULDN'T do that, but there are roughly 10 teams in the market for a QB. Some may re-sign the guy they have, others may draft or trade for one, etc. I don't know what the "going rate" would be for Wilson, but there are 11 guys making that AAV. $40 million is actually $8.5M less per year than Wilson was making for DEN. If Daniel Jones got $40M a year, how much is Wilson worth in a year when the salary cap shot way up? I don't know what the market value is for Wilson (or if teams think he is still a worthy starter or if he is viewed as someone to avoid). The point being, there are always teams looking for QBs, and someone will likely give him a contract that most of us would question.

I feel like if he was going to be this popular, we would have heard it. We haven't heard ANYONE say they heard a team was interested in this guy.

 

[ghostguy123]

Because they need a QB? Again, I agree that they SHOULDN'T do that, but there are roughly 10 teams in the market for a QB. Some may re-sign the guy they have, others may draft or trade for one, etc. I don't know what the "going rate" would be for Wilson, but there are 11 guys making that AAV. $40 million is actually $8.5M less per year than Wilson was making for DEN. If Daniel Jones got $40M a year, how much is Wilson worth in a year when the salary cap shot way up? I don't know what the market value is for Wilson (or if teams think he is still a worthy starter or if he is viewed as someone to avoid). The point being, there are always teams looking for QBs, and someone will likely give him a contract that most of us would question.

I feel like if he was going to be this popular, we would have heard it. We haven't heard ANYONE say they heard a team was interested in this guy.

Pretty simple reason for that. Same reason it always is. Why alienate your current QB unless the deal is done.

 

[massraider]

Pretty simple reason for that. Same reason it always is. Why alienate your current QB unless the deal is done.

We've already heard that ATL is gonna make a push for Ridder. We heard before he was cut that the Saints wanted Carr.

If someone is looking at Wilson, they don't have a current QB that they care feels "alienated".

If someone told me Adrian O'Connell feels "alienated" because he heard the Raiders wanted Wilson, I would laugh, and so would everyone else.

 

[ghostguy123]

Pretty simple reason for that. Same reason it always is. Why alienate your current QB unless the deal is done.

We've already heard that ATL is gonna make a push for Ridder. We heard before he was cut that the Saints wanted Carr.

If someone is looking at Wilson, they don't have a current QB that they care feels "alienated".

If someone told me Adrian O'Connell feels "alienated" because he heard the Raiders wanted Wilson, I would laugh, and so would everyone else.

Perhaps the raiders don't want him then

 

[ghostguy123]

The Browns would probably still have Baker, oodles of extra cap space, and several 1sts if they didn't do what you suggest

 

[Hankmoody]

IMO, that makes the person that hired Payton an idiot. You don’t hire a guy who is supposed to be an offensive genius if he’s not even going to try to make his $200M QB workout.

The issue there is that Payton writes his gameplans like a symphony. 5 plays early in the game set up a coup-de-grace in the 4th quarter. Wilson however is kind of a cowboy and checks out of plays when Payton doesn't want him to, and that ruins the kill shot later on. He's clearly done trying to get Wilson to stick to the script.

 

[travdogg]

Him and Payton were a bad fit (which falls on Payton) but honestly, Wilson was a solid QB last season. Dude was:

8th in passer rating
4th in adjusted completion percentage, which is completion %, not counting drops.
Was sacked more than all but 4 QBs, despite being middle of the pack in pressure to sack ratio
Was in the top-10 in TD passes despite being sat the last couple games. Had a 26-8 TD/INT ratio

Not arguing he's anywhere near his peak, where he was an MVP candidate, but he's still absolutely an NFL starter. He'd be an upgrade for at least 25% of the league.

 

[Grahamburn]

Him and Payton were a bad fit (which falls on Payton) but honestly, Wilson was a solid QB last season. Dude was:

8th in passer rating
4th in adjusted completion percentage, which is completion %, not counting drops.
Was sacked more than all but 4 QBs, despite being middle of the pack in pressure to sack ratio
Was in the top-10 in TD passes despite being sat the last couple games. Had a 26-8 TD/INT ratio

Not arguing he's anywhere near his peak, where he was an MVP candidate, but he's still absolutely an NFL starter. He'd be an upgrade for at least 25% of the league.

25% of the league is only 8 teams though. At least 5 and possibly 6 of which sound like they’re about to draft rookies to be their starter. Two will have Baker or Cousins. Another is likely to be Fields.

Who’s his market?

 

[Tau837]

Him and Payton were a bad fit (which falls on Payton) but honestly, Wilson was a solid QB last season. Dude was:

8th in passer rating
4th in adjusted completion percentage, which is completion %, not counting drops.
Was sacked more than all but 4 QBs, despite being middle of the pack in pressure to sack ratio
Was in the top-10 in TD passes despite being sat the last couple games. Had a 26-8 TD/INT ratio

Not arguing he's anywhere near his peak, where he was an MVP candidate, but he's still absolutely an NFL starter. He'd be an upgrade for at least 25% of the league.

As I posted earlier, I think he will be a week 1 starter in 2024.

 

[ghostguy123]

Him and Payton were a bad fit (which falls on Payton) but honestly, Wilson was a solid QB last season. Dude was:

8th in passer rating
4th in adjusted completion percentage, which is completion %, not counting drops.
Was sacked more than all but 4 QBs, despite being middle of the pack in pressure to sack ratio
Was in the top-10 in TD passes despite being sat the last couple games. Had a 26-8 TD/INT ratio

Not arguing he's anywhere near his peak, where he was an MVP candidate, but he's still absolutely an NFL starter. He'd be an upgrade for at least 25% of the league.

25% of the league is only 8 teams though. At least 5 and possibly 6 of which sound like they’re about to draft rookies to be their starter. Two will have Baker or Cousins. Another is likely to be Fields.

Who’s his market?

One of those teams who doesn't want to draft the 5th or 6th QB to hitch their employment to