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QB Trey Lance, LAC (2 Viewers)

Hot Sauce Guy said:
That said, there is a little bit of reason for excitement in redraft in that he should be Konami-code rushing quarterback… Plus, his receivers are all YAC monsters.I love his upside as a value play/late draft pick. He could well sneak into the top 15, and you can probably get him as the 24th -> QB off the board.

But yes - cautious optimism for Dynasty & redraft alike. He’s far from proven. 
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With the hype machine that is already starting I doubt this to be true.   I would not be surprised that by the time most redrafts are happening that the hype drives him to be a top 10 (or 8 ) QB off the board.  There will be someone in every draft that is all in on him and will reach way too high to ensure they get him.

 
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Gally said:
With the hype machine that is already starting I doubt this to be true.   I would not be surprised that by the time most redrafts are happening that the hype drives him to be a top 10 (or 8 ) QB off the board.  There will be someone in every draft that is all in on him and will reach way too high to ensure they get him.
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Certainly possible, though the mocks I’ve done so far don’t bear this out - it’s very early though 

 
Gally said:
That was before the Jimmy G statements from coach.  That will fuel the hype train to impossible highs.  
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I don’t know a single person who expected Lance to not be the starter. I saw that is a complete non-news story

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I have him in dynasty, and I’m very excited about it. I will likely not be drafting him in re-draft this year except as a second quarterback.

That said, there is a little bit of reason for excitement in redraft in that he should be Konami-code rushing quarterback… Plus, his receivers are all YAC monsters.

I love his upside as a value play/late draft pick. He could well sneak into the top 15, and you can probably get him as the 24th -> QB off the board.

But yes - cautious optimism for Dynasty & redraft alike. He’s far from proven. 
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He’s going anywhere from QB9-QB12. 
 

edit - I stand corrected. More like QB14. I guarantee you that he’s gonna be in that range mid august. 

 
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& he will finish the season as FF QB 15-20. (In standard QB scoring start 1 QB leagues)

 
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I think the play here in 1QB redraft, by the time most August drafts start ramping up, will be to take Lance in the QB10 range and then follow up a few rounds later with one of the many “safe choices” at QB in the Carr/Cousins kind of range. 
 

in dynasty, if you already have him, you’re certainly holding him tight to see what happens and if he can return the Top 5 QB upside we’re all hoping for. 

 
joey said:
I think the play here in 1QB redraft, by the time most August drafts start ramping up, will be to take Lance in the QB10 range and then follow up a few rounds later with one of the many “safe choices” at QB in the Carr/Cousins kind of range. 
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This is the wayish. One caveat, at least currently, is that those three guys are right next to one another in ADP. Carr/Lance/Cousins. But I do like the safe+upside approach.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Certainly possible, though the mocks I’ve done so far don’t bear this out - it’s very early though 
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Again not directed at the author of the quote, just responding and jumping in here...I stopped doing mocks years ago and have consistently not regretted it. It is also arguably the #1 piece of advice I would give. Top 3 anyway. Don't use mock data. It is garbage. And when I say garbage, I mean the stinking kind that you track in the house and flies eat from it. It has always been garbage. 

If you want good data, look at real drafts. Or what I have done, actually draft myself and look at that, and then also look at ADP for those formats. Just as an example in June in FootballGuys Players Championship drafts ($350 each), Lance went as QB11 (over 100 drafts). In May he was going QB15 (over 80 drafts). 

He is going as QB9 on Underdog and that is literally ten of thousands of drafts. 

I realize he is completely unproven, but Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk, Mitchell (and insert backup RB that would eat if called upon here) seems like a really potent arsenal of weapons. Not sure what isn't to love. I feel like the impact of the risk of drafting him and missing is smaller than the impact of not drafting him and having him blow up. If you do draft him then get some later insurance. It shouldn't bury you to draft and miss at ~QB10 prices.

Oh wait that was yesterday. I bet he goes in the top 5 in August/September drafts once in a while and settles around QB7.

 
FWIW or for posterity, I took him in an FBG $350 draft in early May as QB16 at 12.08 (hardly a big negative impact if that is a miss).

In early to mid June @menobrownand I took him in another FBG that we split as QB11 at 11.02 (after taking Brady at 9.02 QB8). 

I took him in another in late June as QB7 at 9.06. Not a typo. I had Deebo and Mitchell already and been in a big best ball stacking frame of mind.

Another in July as QB9 at 9.03.

 
I got him @ 12.03 in a 2hr slow 350$ FBG and that was 3 weeks ago. It was the latest I had seen in my FBG drafts so far(only 3). Agreed that he will rise, it’s why I Like to sprinkle a few early drafts. 
 

I also stopped mock drafting a few years ago, solid advice! 

 
barackdhouse said:
Again not directed at the author of the quote, just responding and jumping in here...I stopped doing mocks years ago and have consistently not regretted it. It is also arguably the #1 piece of advice I would give. Top 3 anyway. Don't use mock data. It is garbage. And when I say garbage, I mean the stinking kind that you track in the house and flies eat from it. It has always been garbage. 

If you want good data, look at real drafts. Or what I have done, actually draft myself and look at that, and then also look at ADP for those formats. Just as an example in June in FootballGuys Players Championship drafts ($350 each), Lance went as QB11 (over 100 drafts). In May he was going QB15 (over 80 drafts). 

He is going as QB9 on Underdog and that is literally ten of thousands of drafts. 

I realize he is completely unproven, but Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk, Mitchell (and insert backup RB that would eat if called upon here) seems like a really potent arsenal of weapons. Not sure what isn't to love. I feel like the impact of the risk of drafting him and missing is smaller than the impact of not drafting him and having him blow up. If you do draft him then get some later insurance. It shouldn't bury you to draft and miss at ~QB10 prices.

Oh wait that was yesterday. I bet he goes in the top 5 in August/September drafts once in a while and settles around QB7.
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What isn’t to love is Shanny wanting to run the ball 67x a game, and saying (paraphrasing) that he was unlikely to unleash Lance’s legs. 

As a dynasty owner, I’d love for your take to be true. Hard to swallow after listening to Shanny’s presser & ensuing discussion for the last 45 mins on my drive home. 

ETA Ps - RIP to anyone’s season who makes Lance a top 5 QB. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
What isn’t to love is Shanny wanting to run the ball 67x a game, and saying (paraphrasing) that he was unlikely to unleash Lance’s legs. 

As a dynasty owner, I’d love for your take to be true. Hard to swallow after listening to Shanny’s presser & ensuing discussion for the last 45 mins on my drive home. 

ETA Ps - RIP to anyone’s season who makes Lance a top 5 QB. 
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Well at this point I'm out on listening to anybody producing sports content out of SF but that is because I am an outsider and don't know who to listen to, but I know you are infinitely more plugged in.

But there is zero chance he isn't going to make plays with his feet. Even if they aren't calling designed runs he is going to use his athleticism. He just will. And they will pass the ball. Even if they are the most run heavy team in the league. Which I don't believe for a second. Anyway I just think with those playmakers there will be passing stats to be had. TDs too. Growing pains and interceptions. Maybe some garbage time. But yes points with his legs are a part of his price point. If they're saying they're not going to let him run then fine keep his price down I guess.

 
barackdhouse said:
Well at this point I'm out on listening to anybody producing sports content out of SF but that is because I am an outsider and don't know who to listen to, but I know you are infinitely more plugged in.
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to be clear, it was a 20 min presser, so mostly I was listening to Shanny. 

barackdhouse said:
But there is zero chance he isn't going to make plays with his feet. Even if they aren't calling designed runs he is going to use his athleticism. He just will. And they will pass the ball. Even if they are the most run heavy team in the league. Which I don't believe for a second. Anyway I just think with those playmakers there will be passing stats to be had. TDs too. Growing pains and interceptions. Maybe some garbage time. But yes points with his legs are a part of his price point. If they're saying they're not going to let him run then fine keep his price down I guess.
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I agree with much of this. It’s why I’m thrilled to have him on a team. I just don’t know how much of it he’s going to do this year. We’ll find out! 

 
barackdhouse said:
Did he talk about his legs for 20 min or did he answer one or two questions and the local media jizzed?
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He said a lot about how they wanted to limit him, he’s basically a rookie, etc. they want to have him develop as a passer, etc.

no one jizzed.

They also asked indirect questions for which the answers seemed telling. They asked if the offense would fundamentally change in the shift from Jimmy to Lance. His response was interesting - he didn’t anticipate much of a change, in that the system worked well.

Again, no jizzing was to be had on 95.7 the Game. 

Instead Ray Ratto, a cynical, acerbic legend of broadcasting, laid out how the 49ers OL is a better run blocking OL than they are pass protecting. He was also highly critical of letting Tomlinson go (as was I, you might recall) because it’s ludicrous to not pay a premier offensive lineman when trying to protect a young, inexperienced passer.

Neither Ray Ratto, nor I, “jizzed” at any point. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
He said a lot about how they wanted to limit him, he’s basically a rookie, etc. they want to have him develop as a passer, etc.

no one jizzed.

They also asked indirect questions for which the answers seemed telling. They asked if the offense would fundamentally change in the shift from Jimmy to Lance. His response was interesting - he didn’t anticipate much of a change, in that the system worked well.

Again, no jizzing was to be had on 95.7 the Game. 

Instead Ray Ratto, a cynical, acerbic legend of broadcasting, laid out how the 49ers OL is a better run blocking OL than they are pass protecting. He was also highly critical of letting Tomlinson go (as was I, you might recall) because it’s ludicrous to not pay a premier offensive lineman when trying to protect a young, inexperienced passer.

Neither Ray Ratto, nor I, “jizzed” at any point. 
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This was a very thoughtful and informative response. I am absolutely in a better position now and I thank you (I'm serious). But before I go on I would like to offer this. Immediately followed by this. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Ok, it’s getting kooky. IMO he’s unlikely to live up to that, and there will be quite a few better fantasy QBs taken after him.

one man’s opinion.
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Totally fair. My take for months has been that once news was (sort of) finalized on Jimmy that we would see a dramatic rise in Lance's ADP. And that the time for any kind of a discount would be prior to that. I guess that time is now.

 
barackdhouse said:
Totally fair. My take for months has been that once news was (sort of) finalized on Jimmy that we would see a dramatic rise in Lance's ADP. And that the time for any kind of a discount would be prior to that. I guess that time is now.
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Making me wonder if I should sell in my 16 team SF league if the price keeps rising. :lol:  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
He said a lot about how they wanted to limit him, he’s basically a rookie, etc. they want to have him develop as a passer, etc.

no one jizzed.

They also asked indirect questions for which the answers seemed telling. They asked if the offense would fundamentally change in the shift from Jimmy to Lance. His response was interesting - he didn’t anticipate much of a change, in that the system worked well.

Again, no jizzing was to be had on 95.7 the Game. 

Instead Ray Ratto, a cynical, acerbic legend of broadcasting, laid out how the 49ers OL is a better run blocking OL than they are pass protecting. He was also highly critical of letting Tomlinson go (as was I, you might recall) because it’s ludicrous to not pay a premier offensive lineman when trying to protect a young, inexperienced passer.

Neither Ray Ratto, nor I, “jizzed” at any point. 
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Ratto is a national treasure.  Love that guy.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
That 1st link popped up a “your phone has been hacked” page. lol
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Bummer - it was supposed to be the stoner from Dazed and Confused where they're on the tower and he looks out at the city and says "you ever wonder how many people are out there right now just #######?......just going at it."

And my work here is done but I saw on the Aiyuk page that Lance and him lived together recently and sat around the fire and such. Super Bowl.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Making me wonder if I should sell in my 16 team SF league if the price keeps rising. :lol:  
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When he puts up a 40 burger in week one or two it will be a madhouse. I'd say this, if you are in a position where you have to rebuild, then Lance might get such a big bounty that it would be worth doing. Otherwise hold for 10+ years.

 
barackdhouse said:
When he puts up a 40 burger in week one or two it will be a madhouse. I'd say this, if you are in a position where you have to rebuild, then Lance might get such a big bounty that it would be worth doing. Otherwise hold for 10+ years.
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That's the 16 team IDP SF PPR league I took over a team in. Between Lance & Fields, I feel like I have more upside at the position than most - more risk as well. :)  

I was tongue in cheek with the sell on Lance comment. As a Niners fan, I'm psyched to have the Lance-to-Aiyuk connection on my squad. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
That's the 16 team IDP SF PPR league I took over a team in. Between Lance & Fields, I feel like I have more upside at the position than most - more risk as well. :)  

I was tongue in cheek with the sell on Lance comment. As a Niners fan, I'm psyched to have the Lance-to-Aiyuk connection on my squad. 
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Aiyuk better step up his game then.

 
Wingnut said:
Matter of fact statements like this about the future are so dumb. Nobody knows where he will finish.
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I'm sorry, did not know I could not post my GUESS & OPINION. Anything else you won't like?

 
From an observer today:

Lance 9 for-16 but that doesn't tell the story. Some PBUs that weren't on him. Some drops. He starts to heat up the longer practice goes on.

Biggest takeaway is how he pushes the ball down the field. 4 of those completions were explosive plays.

Also, he's going against a top flight defense. There will be struggles.

 
I'm not overly worried about Lance.  Beside, from I hear, he's actually fast learner who adjusts rather quickly.  This is his first year with MAJOR playing time since 2019 (2020 doesn't count since it was only one game).   He just needs time to re-acclimate his playing experience.

 
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