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QBBC Article (1 Viewer)

The Ref

Footballguy
Just curious as to when this will be published?

For the record, I think it's the most informative article that is produced by FBG and a theory I have had great success with.

 
Just curious as to when this will be published?

For the record, I think it's the most informative article that is produced by FBG and a theory I have had great success with.
Hey The Ref,QBBC was published in the FBG magazine. It was also discussed on The Audible. An updated version of QBBC will hit the website (along with the initial version of DTBC) in two to three weeks.

 
Just curious as to when this will be published?

For the record, I think it's the most informative article that is produced by FBG and a theory I have had great success with.
Hey The Ref,QBBC was published in the FBG magazine. It was also discussed on The Audible. An updated version of QBBC will hit the website (along with the initial version of DTBC) in two to three weeks.
I didn't get a chance to get the Mag this year (long story), but I'll check out the audible now. I'm looking forward to the update in a few weeks.Thanks Chase - I credit this theory to many of my spoils! If I had a nickle for every time someone said to me, I like your team but you will never win with those QB I would be rich.

 
QBBC is something I will not put too much stock in anymore. For the last 3 years I have tried this strategy and have decided it is flawed and not that I have bad luck. I went from a perenial top-5 finish to not making the playoffs the last 3 years.

This is in a 6pt QB TD league so maybe that puts more value on stud QB's, but I think there is too much luck involved in getting just the right 2 QB's to combine for good stats, especially since predicting SOS is a crapshoot.

I'll be looking for a QB at the 3/4 turn this year with my 11th overall pick unless there is no good value. I highly doubt Brady will be there at 11, and it's too much of a reach to take anybody else until the 3rd round.

 
I know it's off topic, but I really don't want to start another thread on it. When will articels covering tiers come out (wr tier, rb tier, etc)?

 
Last year, I strayed from the QBBC approach and wasn't happy with the results. I'm a fan of loading up on RBs and WRs early and often and finding 3 guys I can grab to play matchups at QB. The extra roster spot for the QB can be a bit of a pain. I like to target at least one QB who has a very good supporting cast but is overlooked for whatever reason. This year, that might be Leinart or Rodgers as well as a few others. Getting steady results from QB play while getting stellar results from your other starters is the key to this approach.

 
Yeah last year my QBBC was anchored by Leinert.... :thumbup: and involved Alex Smith... :boxing:

And my "stud" RB stable was SJ, Duece, and Caddy.... :lmao:

At least I had Wayne, and picked up some good FA's, but missed the playoffs.

 
If you are going into the draft with the plan of using the QBBC strategy, at what point do you drop the idea and pounce on value?

For instance, if Matt Hasselbeck is there in the 9th (ADP of 7.03) or Bulger is there in the 11th (ADP of 8.08)...can you pass on the value and stick with the the QBBC strategy? Or do you pounce?

 
If you are going into the draft with the plan of using the QBBC strategy, at what point do you drop the idea and pounce on value?For instance, if Matt Hasselbeck is there in the 9th (ADP of 7.03) or Bulger is there in the 11th (ADP of 8.08)...can you pass on the value and stick with the the QBBC strategy? Or do you pounce?
In mocks, I have been doing this year, I have been getting my 1st QB around the 9th or 10th round, so if either of those guys are there that late, it's a good chance I'll take one of them. By the time the 10th has rolled around, I'm usually comfortable enough with my supporting cast to start looking at the QBs I'm after.
 
If you are going into the draft with the plan of using the QBBC strategy, at what point do you drop the idea and pounce on value?For instance, if Matt Hasselbeck is there in the 9th (ADP of 7.03) or Bulger is there in the 11th (ADP of 8.08)...can you pass on the value and stick with the the QBBC strategy? Or do you pounce?
I love qbbc but if Big Ben slides to late in the 5th or Hass late 7, I would have to pounce.
 
I've tried both QBBC and getting a QB stud early. Both can work but I've quit using QBBC due to roster limitations. In my league (redraft) there just isn't enough roster space left for RBs when you're using 3 team spots for QB, especially since you're only starting one QB. I'd rather carry one QB (after their bye week) and free up an additional spot for RB or WR. I do the same with my kicker. That essentially gives me 2 extra spots for RB and WR that other owners who keep the 'normal' rosters don't utilize. Makes it much easier to play matchups at the other positions too. It's like I'm running a 16 player roster while they're running a 14. Last year Brady popped up to me unexpectedly and I felt it was too good of value to pass up. :-) And then A Peterson popped up and I felt like I HAD to grab him. Knowing that I'd have an open RB slot I could use after week 4 allowed me to pick up my last RB earlier because I didn't care about the QB backup (since I only planned on using him one game). Yes, not having a backup QB is dangerous if your QB gets hurt, but getting a replacement I think is easier than getting a RB replacement, right? Heck, part of the year I went a little lighter at WR so as to carry another RB that I took off waivers too. Needless to say I went 13-1, AND avenged my one loss in the championship.

So, I think if you have plenty of roster space, QBBC can work. But otherwise, get value where it shows up.

 
Chase Stuart said:
The Ref said:
Just curious as to when this will be published?

For the record, I think it's the most informative article that is produced by FBG and a theory I have had great success with.
Hey The Ref,QBBC was published in the FBG magazine. It was also discussed on The Audible. An updated version of QBBC will hit the website (along with the initial version of DTBC) in two to three weeks.
good listen... though PLEASE consider putting a sock, nylons or t-shirt over the phone receiver in future episodes to cut down on the distortion from your plosive sounds (ie, P's, B's, C's etc)
 
gump said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:Alex SmithJeff Garcia Jake DelhommeAlex SmithBen RoethlisbergerJeff Garcia Jake DelhommeMatt Schaub Jake DelhommeJeff Garcia Jake DelhommeRex Grossman Joey HarringtonAlex Smith Rex GrossmanMatt Leinart Rex GrossmanAlex Smith Alex SmithJason Campbell Eli ManningJeff Garcia Jake DelhommeDaunte Culpepper Jake DelhommeMatt Leinart Joey HarringtonJake Delhomme Jake DelhommeTarvaris Jackson My guess is that most of these were terrible. Delhomme, Leinart and Schaub were hurt. Alex Smith, Duante Culpepper, Harrington, Grossman, and Jackson were really bad. My feeling that this works in that you draft three low end guys hoping that you can play a little match ups, but really you are hoping that one or two just play really well. I see it more as drafting upside low end guys than an all year plan.
 
gump said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.

 
Chase - I'm interested in this more so this year than prior...but one thing I can't figure out:

When do you bail on the plan if someone slips? Like I said earlier...Hass is there in the 9th, etc.

Do you have a level of value that would have to fall to you to change direction and pick a QB in the 7-10th rounds?

 
Chase - I'm interested in this more so this year than prior...but one thing I can't figure out:When do you bail on the plan if someone slips? Like I said earlier...Hass is there in the 9th, etc.Do you have a level of value that would have to fall to you to change direction and pick a QB in the 7-10th rounds?
Sure.You don't even need someone to slip to ditch the plan. If you were a huge David Garrard fan, for example, and thought he would finish top 5 -- there's no point in using QBBC. If you thought Derek Anderson was QB2, you should just skip this article.If you're a believer in efficient markets, though, then you'd say that every QB's ADP is just about the best guess you could have for every QB. Therefore, no QB is really under or overvalued. But if some QB that you like falls in the draft, at that point, you're picking up value.The reason I like QBBC is that it beats efficient markets in two senses. One, people generally don't incorporate SOS into their QB rankings, and when they do, they do so in a flawed way (i.e., their D rankings are poor). Two, people don't combine the value of mixing and matching the schedules (i.e., the QBs with the 8th and 10th hardest schedules might match up better than the two QBs with the easiest schedules). When you put those together, QBBC can be a nice way to snatch up value in a hobby where just about all other reasons for value has been incorporated into a player's ADP.
 
by_the_sea_wannabe said:
gump said:
If you are going into the draft with the plan of using the QBBC strategy, at what point do you drop the idea and pounce on value?For instance, if Matt Hasselbeck is there in the 9th (ADP of 7.03) or Bulger is there in the 11th (ADP of 8.08)...can you pass on the value and stick with the the QBBC strategy? Or do you pounce?
I love qbbc but if Big Ben slides to late in the 5th or Hass late 7, I would have to pounce.
Hass' WRs can be very good(Engram was last year, Branch has had his moments) yet I still think they leave something to be desiredBulger's injury history and if Drew Bennett doesn't play like he did as a complimentary WR in TEN, he's going to sorely miss Isaac Bruce.So there's some issues with these 2 QBs that I think you should still roll with Chase's QBBC theory. Just treat it as your first QB being better than expected. I'm afraid you might get burned if you rely too much on one of them and it's way more comfy to just consider one of them part of your QBBC strategy
 
gump said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
Is that using the best possible matchup, or the matchups that were recommended in the article?
 
gump said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
Is that using the best possible matchup, or the matchups that were recommended in the article?
That's using the matchup suggested before each game.
 
Because of roster restrictions, I would have to use a 2 man QBBC. That seems to be a big gamble because I run the risk that someone will be in "love" with

the second QB that I want and take him a round (or even two rounds) before I would normally take him. That really puts you in a bind because that second

QB might be penciled in to start 6 games during the season based on SOS. If you don't get him, you are hurting for those six weeks.

Does it make sense to reach for that second QB and take him a round early to lessen the risk?

 
I like Chase's article a lot, but I had some very tough times applying it in some of my leagues. I know Chase has talked about how the difference between 6 and 4 pts for pass TD doesn't make a difference, I believe Chase also has debated that PPR doesn't affect the outcome of the games much(he's right), however I just think for me the QBBC has not worked out so good.

Here is what I do think you can do...try and find a QB in the 11-20 crowd that will move up into the top10 maybe top5-7. Last year there are two guys that stand out to me. Matt Hasselbeck who will not repeat his numbers this year. Actually David Garrard was the other I was thinking about however he wasn't named the starter until almost the regular season. Derek Anderson finished top 10 but no one had a clue he was going to start really.

This year, I think there are a lot of QBs that will have their moments but overall finish about the same. This is a problem for owners looking for value at QB in the 6th-10th rounds as we try to stockpile RB and WR. I still think it is easier to pry away a QB2 from another owner that will be your QB1, than it is trying to get an RB1 or WR1/2 in trades during the season. I don't know about you all but I rarely will deal a RB or WR no matter how deep I am...would rather they sit on my bench than help someone else beat me.

I still think the strategy has a lot of merit, and I also think Chase is pretty interesting to read even when you disagree with his POV. He doesn't write forma know it all standpoint and he's not afraid to listen to other people's opinion. Long way from Jets94.

 
For what it's worth - I think QBBC works better in an auction format in my experiance. Most teams will pay 20% for a top QB and 7-15% for a second tier QB. When you can match produciton with these teams with two min bids, it makes a big differance.

 
I like Chase's article a lot, but I had some very tough times applying it in some of my leagues. I know Chase has talked about how the difference between 6 and 4 pts for pass TD doesn't make a difference, I believe Chase also has debated that PPR doesn't affect the outcome of the games much(he's right), however I just think for me the QBBC has not worked out so good.Here is what I do think you can do...try and find a QB in the 11-20 crowd that will move up into the top10 maybe top5-7. Last year there are two guys that stand out to me. Matt Hasselbeck who will not repeat his numbers this year. Actually David Garrard was the other I was thinking about however he wasn't named the starter until almost the regular season. Derek Anderson finished top 10 but no one had a clue he was going to start really.This year, I think there are a lot of QBs that will have their moments but overall finish about the same. This is a problem for owners looking for value at QB in the 6th-10th rounds as we try to stockpile RB and WR. I still think it is easier to pry away a QB2 from another owner that will be your QB1, than it is trying to get an RB1 or WR1/2 in trades during the season. I don't know about you all but I rarely will deal a RB or WR no matter how deep I am...would rather they sit on my bench than help someone else beat me. I still think the strategy has a lot of merit, and I also think Chase is pretty interesting to read even when you disagree with his POV. He doesn't write forma know it all standpoint and he's not afraid to listen to other people's opinion. Long way from Jets94.
I love Garrard, although the injuries mounting in Jacksonville isn't a good sign. But assuming things look positive for the rest of the year, I'd just as soon ditch QBBC and play Garrard every game. I think he's a potential QB5 that's not being drafted very early.For the most part, though, I think the market is pretty good. A QB's ADP is a very good representation of how is potential performance projects. The reason Garrard is undervalued is because he played in a bunch of partial games last year (meaning he's low on the FP/G list) and he missed some full games too (meaning he's low on the FP list). He also had a difficult schedule. Further, there's a bit of a myth out there on the Jacksonville offense -- that the Jaguars don't throw the ball. Well, sure, Jacksonville doesn't throw it a ton, but they throw it far. The Jags, IIRC, ranked 4th in YPC last year. Whether it's bombs or swing passes to Jones-Drew, I don't think Garrard owners care very much. Finally, most people incorrectly look for a QB on a team with a bad defense, and look away from a QB on a good defense. Thus, someone like Garrard isn't given the proper respect he deserves.This confluence of events is pretty rare, and the reason I started using QBBC. I still think QBBC can work this year -- in the mag I chose Garcia, Jackson and Campbell. That might change by the time the article hits the website, although I suspect that combo will still work pretty well. In the past two years the committee has been good but not great, but the two years before that the results were very successful. There's going to be a lot of luck in QBBC just like anything else.
 
I love Garrard, although the injuries mounting in Jacksonville isn't a good sign. But assuming things look positive for the rest of the year, I'd just as soon ditch QBBC and play Garrard every game. I think he's a potential QB5 that's not being drafted very early.

For the most part, though, I think the market is pretty good. A QB's ADP is a very good representation of how is potential performance projects. The reason Garrard is undervalued is because he played in a bunch of partial games last year (meaning he's low on the FP/G list) and he missed some full games too (meaning he's low on the FP list). He also had a difficult schedule. Further, there's a bit of a myth out there on the Jacksonville offense -- that the Jaguars don't throw the ball. Well, sure, Jacksonville doesn't throw it a ton, but they throw it far. The Jags, IIRC, ranked 4th in YPC last year. Whether it's bombs or swing passes to Jones-Drew, I don't think Garrard owners care very much. Finally, most people incorrectly look for a QB on a team with a bad defense, and look away from a QB on a good defense. Thus, someone like Garrard isn't given the proper respect he deserves.

This confluence of events is pretty rare, and the reason I started using QBBC. I still think QBBC can work this year -- in the mag I chose Garcia, Jackson and Campbell. That might change by the time the article hits the website, although I suspect that combo will still work pretty well. In the past two years the committee has been good but not great, but the two years before that the results were very successful. There's going to be a lot of luck in QBBC just like anything else.
I had to do a double take when I read that. I know the FBG mag and website is really high on Garrard but I honestly don't see a top-5 ceiling. His WRs are suspect and although Jax has shown the ability to pass, I see them as more of a ball control offense. At the risk of hijacking the thread, Chase can you expand on this previous post? I am thinking about grabbing Garrard and another QB in tandem, so your last post really caught my attention.
 
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
How successful were the pairs? Or more succinctly which pairs did you feel were successful? And you said the strategy was very successful in the two prior years. What were your primary trios then? And how successful were they? Did they finish ranked 6th overall, what exactly did they do?
 
For what it's worth - I think QBBC works better in an auction format in my experiance. Most teams will pay 20% for a top QB and 7-15% for a second tier QB. When you can match produciton with these teams with two min bids, it makes a big differance.
I think you are right. You have a much better chance of getting the guys you want at a good price in an auction.
 
twistd said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
How successful were the pairs? Or more succinctly which pairs did you feel were successful? And you said the strategy was very successful in the two prior years. What were your primary trios then? And how successful were they? Did they finish ranked 6th overall, what exactly did they do?
I become more sophisticated in tracking the results last year, so I'm just going to have to give a broad explanation for the prior years.In 2005, I suggested Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and David Carr. I don't know their exact ADPs, just that none of them were top 12. Brees himself ended up #7, while Carr stunk. Roethlisberger was only called on to start four games, but if you went through it he probably would have only started the first two games of the season for you, when he played very well. He was injured in week 9, and by week 12 you would have been playing Brees every week. I consider 2005 to be a pretty strong season because you would have likely landed in the top half of your league based on the strength of your QBs despite being one of the very last guys to draft a QB.

In 2004, I suggested Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer and Brad Johnson. Delhomme ranked 7th, Plummer 5th, and Brad Johnson stunk. I don't know how the mixing and matching of the guys would have gone, but I'd assume it would go pretty well. I don't have their ADPs handy, but none of them were top 10 guys.

In '06, the combo was Warner/Brooks/Rivers. That looked pretty ugly, as Warner and Brooks were huge busts. It seems hard to remember now, but I was pretty shocked that Brooks fell so badly in '06. Warner got hut and didn't play well, but Rivers did rank 6th. I don't consider '06 a success, though, because you probably hurt yourself for a few weeks before settling in on Rivers as a stud.

Last year, the combo hovered in the QB9-QB13 range for most of the season, until injuries did in all three QBs. Consider none of Campbell/Garcia/Smith had high ADPs, I'd consider it a mild success last year. The QBs as a committee certainly outperformed their draft spot, and injuries can happen to anyone, but I think you really want your QBBC to finish a bit higher than that range.

So I think '04 was the best year, '05 was second best, '07 was third best, and '06 was worst. There's a lot of luck involved in how this unfolds, mostly due to injury. But even in '06, I don't think QBBC was ever bad. It just didn't meet expectations.

As long as you can predict the defenses with a bit of accuracy, QBBC is going to be an upgrade over whatever else the average person does because you've got a leg up on them because you know something they don't. But if your QBs get hit by injury, no theory is going to save you no matter what it's called.

 
Buffaloes said:
Chase Stuart said:
I love Garrard, although the injuries mounting in Jacksonville isn't a good sign. But assuming things look positive for the rest of the year, I'd just as soon ditch QBBC and play Garrard every game. I think he's a potential QB5 that's not being drafted very early.

For the most part, though, I think the market is pretty good. A QB's ADP is a very good representation of how is potential performance projects. The reason Garrard is undervalued is because he played in a bunch of partial games last year (meaning he's low on the FP/G list) and he missed some full games too (meaning he's low on the FP list). He also had a difficult schedule. Further, there's a bit of a myth out there on the Jacksonville offense -- that the Jaguars don't throw the ball. Well, sure, Jacksonville doesn't throw it a ton, but they throw it far. The Jags, IIRC, ranked 4th in YPC last year. Whether it's bombs or swing passes to Jones-Drew, I don't think Garrard owners care very much. Finally, most people incorrectly look for a QB on a team with a bad defense, and look away from a QB on a good defense. Thus, someone like Garrard isn't given the proper respect he deserves.

This confluence of events is pretty rare, and the reason I started using QBBC. I still think QBBC can work this year -- in the mag I chose Garcia, Jackson and Campbell. That might change by the time the article hits the website, although I suspect that combo will still work pretty well. In the past two years the committee has been good but not great, but the two years before that the results were very successful. There's going to be a lot of luck in QBBC just like anything else.
I had to do a double take when I read that. I know the FBG mag and website is really high on Garrard but I honestly don't see a top-5 ceiling. His WRs are suspect and although Jax has shown the ability to pass, I see them as more of a ball control offense. At the risk of hijacking the thread, Chase can you expand on this previous post? I am thinking about grabbing Garrard and another QB in tandem, so your last post really caught my attention.
http://footballguys.com/08stuart_rearview_qb.php
 
twistd said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
How successful were the pairs? Or more succinctly which pairs did you feel were successful? And you said the strategy was very successful in the two prior years. What were your primary trios then? And how successful were they? Did they finish ranked 6th overall, what exactly did they do?
I become more sophisticated in tracking the results last year, so I'm just going to have to give a broad explanation for the prior years.In 2005, I suggested Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and David Carr. I don't know their exact ADPs, just that none of them were top 12. Brees himself ended up #7, while Carr stunk. Roethlisberger was only called on to start four games, but if you went through it he probably would have only started the first two games of the season for you, when he played very well. He was injured in week 9, and by week 12 you would have been playing Brees every week. I consider 2005 to be a pretty strong season because you would have likely landed in the top half of your league based on the strength of your QBs despite being one of the very last guys to draft a QB.

In 2004, I suggested Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer and Brad Johnson. Delhomme ranked 7th, Plummer 5th, and Brad Johnson stunk. I don't know how the mixing and matching of the guys would have gone, but I'd assume it would go pretty well. I don't have their ADPs handy, but none of them were top 10 guys.

In '06, the combo was Warner/Brooks/Rivers. That looked pretty ugly, as Warner and Brooks were huge busts. It seems hard to remember now, but I was pretty shocked that Brooks fell so badly in '06. Warner got hut and didn't play well, but Rivers did rank 6th. I don't consider '06 a success, though, because you probably hurt yourself for a few weeks before settling in on Rivers as a stud.

Last year, the combo hovered in the QB9-QB13 range for most of the season, until injuries did in all three QBs. Consider none of Campbell/Garcia/Smith had high ADPs, I'd consider it a mild success last year. The QBs as a committee certainly outperformed their draft spot, and injuries can happen to anyone, but I think you really want your QBBC to finish a bit higher than that range.

So I think '04 was the best year, '05 was second best, '07 was third best, and '06 was worst. There's a lot of luck involved in how this unfolds, mostly due to injury. But even in '06, I don't think QBBC was ever bad. It just didn't meet expectations.

As long as you can predict the defenses with a bit of accuracy, QBBC is going to be an upgrade over whatever else the average person does because you've got a leg up on them because you know something they don't. But if your QBs get hit by injury, no theory is going to save you no matter what it's called.
I think the trios have a built in advantage of protecting a little against injury because you have three guys. But drafting the pairs can put you in a big hole. The top ten pairs were:Alex Smith-Smith was horrible, Garcia was adequate until week 12

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-If you drafted these two you were screwed after game three

Alex Smith

Ben Roethlisberger-Ben was your starter all year and you did very well

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-After Delhomme got injured Schaub had three good games

Matt Schaub

Jake Delhomme-Delhomme was great for three games, Garcia could have been adequate until he got hurt in week 11

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-Delhomme had three good games, Grossman had one

Rex Grossman

Joey Harrington-Harrington had two good games, so did Smith

Alex Smith

Rex Grossman-Grossman had one good game, so did Leinart

Matt Leinart

Rex Grossman-a total of three good games

Alex Smith

Alex Smith-Campbell had about five good games, Smith two

Jason Campbell

The best pair was the one with Roethlisberger. Then the other two with Garcia did okay. But the rest were not good. So if you drafted any of those other pairs you were scrambling for a new QB. That isn't a very good success ratio. I don't know if this year was bad as far as the recommended QBs getting injured, or failing to be successful. I'd like to know how the pairs did in past years. I may look at that.

 
Last year, I avoided the qbbc as much as possible. It worked out well. Big QBs paid off.

This year, Im once okay with letting the QBs and draft dictate value; as has been the case in years past.

So QBBC is fine, though I will be looking for what I find to be a particularly strong QB1 option in the 13-18 range.

And back him up with another solid option or two. Not a true QBBC (1a/1b/1c).

Without looking at much besides ADP, removing the top 10....

#11-19.

8.05 David Garrard QB JAC 88.9 11.0 6.01 10.09 506

8.05 Jay Cutler QB DEN 89.0 12.1 5.10 11.03 602

8.12 Eli Manning QB NYG 95.9 13.8 5.12 11.04 505

9.07 Jake Delhomme QB CAR 102.9 11.6 6.12 11.07 566

9.12 Matt Schaub QB HOU 108.2 10.3 7.09 11.12 525

10.03 Philip Rivers QB SD 111.3 12.2 7.07 12.04 592

11.01 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 120.9 12.5 8.04 13.08 528

11.06 Jon Kitna QB DET 126.1 11.9 8.11 13.11 307

12.10 Jason Campbell QB WAS 141.7 15.8 9.04 16.01 518

Getting two of these is solid.

Give me my choice and Ill spend my 11 & 12 on Aaron Rodgers and Jason Campbell and be very happy.

 
twistd said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
How successful were the pairs? Or more succinctly which pairs did you feel were successful? And you said the strategy was very successful in the two prior years. What were your primary trios then? And how successful were they? Did they finish ranked 6th overall, what exactly did they do?
I become more sophisticated in tracking the results last year, so I'm just going to have to give a broad explanation for the prior years.In 2005, I suggested Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and David Carr. I don't know their exact ADPs, just that none of them were top 12. Brees himself ended up #7, while Carr stunk. Roethlisberger was only called on to start four games, but if you went through it he probably would have only started the first two games of the season for you, when he played very well. He was injured in week 9, and by week 12 you would have been playing Brees every week. I consider 2005 to be a pretty strong season because you would have likely landed in the top half of your league based on the strength of your QBs despite being one of the very last guys to draft a QB.

In 2004, I suggested Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer and Brad Johnson. Delhomme ranked 7th, Plummer 5th, and Brad Johnson stunk. I don't know how the mixing and matching of the guys would have gone, but I'd assume it would go pretty well. I don't have their ADPs handy, but none of them were top 10 guys.

In '06, the combo was Warner/Brooks/Rivers. That looked pretty ugly, as Warner and Brooks were huge busts. It seems hard to remember now, but I was pretty shocked that Brooks fell so badly in '06. Warner got hut and didn't play well, but Rivers did rank 6th. I don't consider '06 a success, though, because you probably hurt yourself for a few weeks before settling in on Rivers as a stud.

Last year, the combo hovered in the QB9-QB13 range for most of the season, until injuries did in all three QBs. Consider none of Campbell/Garcia/Smith had high ADPs, I'd consider it a mild success last year. The QBs as a committee certainly outperformed their draft spot, and injuries can happen to anyone, but I think you really want your QBBC to finish a bit higher than that range.

So I think '04 was the best year, '05 was second best, '07 was third best, and '06 was worst. There's a lot of luck involved in how this unfolds, mostly due to injury. But even in '06, I don't think QBBC was ever bad. It just didn't meet expectations.

As long as you can predict the defenses with a bit of accuracy, QBBC is going to be an upgrade over whatever else the average person does because you've got a leg up on them because you know something they don't. But if your QBs get hit by injury, no theory is going to save you no matter what it's called.
I think the trios have a built in advantage of protecting a little against injury because you have three guys. But drafting the pairs can put you in a big hole. The top ten pairs were:Alex Smith-Smith was horrible, Garcia was adequate until week 12

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-If you drafted these two you were screwed after game three

Alex Smith

Ben Roethlisberger-Ben was your starter all year and you did very well

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-After Delhomme got injured Schaub had three good games

Matt Schaub

Jake Delhomme-Delhomme was great for three games, Garcia could have been adequate until he got hurt in week 11

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-Delhomme had three good games, Grossman had one

Rex Grossman

Joey Harrington-Harrington had two good games, so did Smith

Alex Smith

Rex Grossman-Grossman had one good game, so did Leinart

Matt Leinart

Rex Grossman-a total of three good games

Alex Smith

Alex Smith-Campbell had about five good games, Smith two

Jason Campbell

The best pair was the one with Roethlisberger. Then the other two with Garcia did okay. But the rest were not good. So if you drafted any of those other pairs you were scrambling for a new QB. That isn't a very good success ratio. I don't know if this year was bad as far as the recommended QBs getting injured, or failing to be successful. I'd like to know how the pairs did in past years. I may look at that.
I think the moral is QBs get hurt, and that's about it. Chad Pennington, J.P. Losman, Trent Green, Steve McNair, David Garrard, Marc Bulger all got hurt last year and weren't in my QBBC pairs. I don't think there's anything special about the QBs I picked that make them more injury prone (not that I'm suggesting that's what you're saying), so I think it's probably wisest to just ignore the pairs of QBs that get hurt. There's nothing in the system that picks out QBs more likely to get hurt.
 
twistd said:
Who were the QBs recommended for the QBBC in '07?
The top trio was Campbell, Garcia and Alex Smith. I don't know how successful that was. These are the pairs:
Injuries certainly were a factor, but believe it or not, that trio was quite a bit more successful than you'd imagine. Through twelve weeks, the trio was averaging 19.2 FPG, which ranked 9th out of all QBs. Then the injuries to Campbell and Garcia happened, and that was that. But injuries to all of your QBs is a risk you take when you draft any QB not named Manning or Brady. The QBs as a whole underperformed my expectations, but by playing the schedule (which did not underperform my expectations), you still were getting good enough production to win your league without spending a pick in the first 8 or 9 rounds on your QB.
How successful were the pairs? Or more succinctly which pairs did you feel were successful? And you said the strategy was very successful in the two prior years. What were your primary trios then? And how successful were they? Did they finish ranked 6th overall, what exactly did they do?
I become more sophisticated in tracking the results last year, so I'm just going to have to give a broad explanation for the prior years.In 2005, I suggested Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and David Carr. I don't know their exact ADPs, just that none of them were top 12. Brees himself ended up #7, while Carr stunk. Roethlisberger was only called on to start four games, but if you went through it he probably would have only started the first two games of the season for you, when he played very well. He was injured in week 9, and by week 12 you would have been playing Brees every week. I consider 2005 to be a pretty strong season because you would have likely landed in the top half of your league based on the strength of your QBs despite being one of the very last guys to draft a QB.

In 2004, I suggested Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer and Brad Johnson. Delhomme ranked 7th, Plummer 5th, and Brad Johnson stunk. I don't know how the mixing and matching of the guys would have gone, but I'd assume it would go pretty well. I don't have their ADPs handy, but none of them were top 10 guys.

In '06, the combo was Warner/Brooks/Rivers. That looked pretty ugly, as Warner and Brooks were huge busts. It seems hard to remember now, but I was pretty shocked that Brooks fell so badly in '06. Warner got hut and didn't play well, but Rivers did rank 6th. I don't consider '06 a success, though, because you probably hurt yourself for a few weeks before settling in on Rivers as a stud.

Last year, the combo hovered in the QB9-QB13 range for most of the season, until injuries did in all three QBs. Consider none of Campbell/Garcia/Smith had high ADPs, I'd consider it a mild success last year. The QBs as a committee certainly outperformed their draft spot, and injuries can happen to anyone, but I think you really want your QBBC to finish a bit higher than that range.

So I think '04 was the best year, '05 was second best, '07 was third best, and '06 was worst. There's a lot of luck involved in how this unfolds, mostly due to injury. But even in '06, I don't think QBBC was ever bad. It just didn't meet expectations.

As long as you can predict the defenses with a bit of accuracy, QBBC is going to be an upgrade over whatever else the average person does because you've got a leg up on them because you know something they don't. But if your QBs get hit by injury, no theory is going to save you no matter what it's called.
I think the trios have a built in advantage of protecting a little against injury because you have three guys. But drafting the pairs can put you in a big hole. The top ten pairs were:Alex Smith-Smith was horrible, Garcia was adequate until week 12

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-If you drafted these two you were screwed after game three

Alex Smith

Ben Roethlisberger-Ben was your starter all year and you did very well

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-After Delhomme got injured Schaub had three good games

Matt Schaub

Jake Delhomme-Delhomme was great for three games, Garcia could have been adequate until he got hurt in week 11

Jeff Garcia

Jake Delhomme-Delhomme had three good games, Grossman had one

Rex Grossman

Joey Harrington-Harrington had two good games, so did Smith

Alex Smith

Rex Grossman-Grossman had one good game, so did Leinart

Matt Leinart

Rex Grossman-a total of three good games

Alex Smith

Alex Smith-Campbell had about five good games, Smith two

Jason Campbell

The best pair was the one with Roethlisberger. Then the other two with Garcia did okay. But the rest were not good. So if you drafted any of those other pairs you were scrambling for a new QB. That isn't a very good success ratio. I don't know if this year was bad as far as the recommended QBs getting injured, or failing to be successful. I'd like to know how the pairs did in past years. I may look at that.
I think the moral is QBs get hurt, and that's about it. Chad Pennington, J.P. Losman, Trent Green, Steve McNair, David Garrard, Marc Bulger all got hurt last year and weren't in my QBBC pairs. I don't think there's anything special about the QBs I picked that make them more injury prone (not that I'm suggesting that's what you're saying), so I think it's probably wisest to just ignore the pairs of QBs that get hurt. There's nothing in the system that picks out QBs more likely to get hurt.
I think this is an interesting theory. I like looking for value on the low end of QBs. Particularly this year because I'm not thrilled with the mid-range QBs. And this is another factor to take into consideration when looking at low end QBs. I like your ideas about SOS. There are lots of different ways to approach that, but I think you do a good job with that. I'm looking forward to the article on the website.
 
I don't mind having 3 total spots for QB's on my team (one starter, two bench). Granted thats an extra spot you could have used for a back end WR/RB, but there are a few upsides.

1. You can use QBBC and stock up on RB and WR value while drafting your TE or a premium D/ST if the scoring allows.

2. It protects you against injury risk in two ways. First, it keeps you from drafting a top QB (think Brady or Peyton) only to watch them go down with an injury. Second, if one of your QBBC rotation goes down you can always plug and play off the wire with little value loss.

3. It gives you an extra chance for a break out candidate *AND* gives you a chance to use him. See Plumber 04, Brees 2005 and Rivers 2006 as examples (I think Cambell could be that guy this year FWIW) of a break out player. Also to this point (and one I really have not seen discussed), if you hit a breakout player by using RBBC you can actulay use said player. As an example of my point, the guy in my main leauge that had Anderson last year also had Peyton in a one QB format. So even though he had one of the seasons top breakout players he never saw the starting rostrer except the bye week. He was also unable to trade him for fair value so he never actualy got the value.

 
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Any update on a release date for this year's QBBC? I'm in the middle of an email draft and would love to take a look at it before I get to far in the draft. I'd use the mag version but when I tried that last year with the DTBC (Mia/Den), it really bit me hard. Looking forward to the updated version.

 
since QBs flew off the board I had to give the QBBC strategy a try on my last draft (14 rounds + 2 rounds rookie only).

I got

Delhomme (9.01)

Rodgers (11.01)

Schaub (11.12 --> pick from a pre-draft trade)

The schedules of those three look promising, hope it works out in my favour.

 
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Any update on a release date for this year's QBBC? I'm in the middle of an email draft and would love to take a look at it before I get to far in the draft. I'd use the mag version but when I tried that last year with the DTBC (Mia/Den), it really bit me hard. Looking forward to the updated version.
Hey Franchise,I assume you're an FBG subscriber, so just shoot me an e-mail. I literally just sent it in, so it should be posted in a day or two. But if you're in the middle of your draft and need quick advice, stuart@footballguys.com.
 
Hey Chase

I was wondering the methodology of coming up with your top combo. If I add up the '08FP of the defenses your top combo would play against I get a total of -24.24. If I use this same method to compare the #10 - #16 QB's in the Footballguys Redraft Overall Rankings, your top combo come in at #5 of 21 possible combos. If I look at the median of all 21 combos they come in at #7. Is there something that I'm missing?

 
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Is there something that I'm missing?
The fact you're not supposed to give away pay content of the free boards.Other than that, I thought the article was pretty self explanatory and used the combo in a draft last night. Truthfully though, I'm hoping one of them pulls a Roethlisberger and I don't have to worry about the match-ups for too long.
 

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