QBs Who Were Top 10 NFL Draft Picks (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

Here are all the guys that have been drafted in the Top 10 since 1990. That goes far enough back to see how they fared and still keepes us near the salary cap era of football.The question I pose is how people view both the risk and the results of drafting a franchise QB. While we all may have a sifferent opinion, I added my comments as to how they have done to date.2005 1-1 Alex Smith, SF - Too soon to tell but not off to a great start2004 1-1 Eli Manning, SD - Played better this year but was inconsistent 2004 1-4 Philip Rivers, NYG - Hasn't had a shot yet2003 1-1 Carson Palmer, CIN - Had a great season 2003 1-7 Byron Leftwich, JAC - Off to a decent but not great start2002 1-1 David Carr, HOU - Hasn't been the brighest star but not all his fault 2002 1-3 Joey Harrington, DET - Hasn't shown much and may not get more chances2001 1-1 Michael Vick, ATL - Explosive? Yes. Great QB? Debatable.1999 1-1 Tim Couch, CLE - Can't help but say bust1999 1-2 Donovan McNabb, PHI - Results have been excellent so far 1999 1-3 Akili Smith, CIN - Bust1998 1-1 Peyton Manning, IND - Great stats, no titles1998 1-2 Ryan Leaf, SD - Bust1995 1-3 Steve McNair, TEN - Solid 1995 1-5 Kerry Collins, CAR - Middle of the road1994 1-3 Heath Shuler, WAS - Bust 1994 1-6 Trent Dilfer, TB - Hard to think he was great1993 1-1 Drew Bledsoe NE - Solid career but never truly top tier1993 1-2 Rick Mirer, SEA - Never really panned out1992 1-6 David Klingler, CIN - Meh1990 1-1 Jeff George, IND - Above average but not phenomenal1990 1-7 Andre Ware, DET - Nothing muchI see Palmer, McNabb, and Manning as the gems here. Too soon to tell on the younger guys, with Vick, Bledsoe, McNair, and George probably still good options.

 

[Wadsworth]

If you take it back a bit more you get guys like Elway and Aikman(5 Super Bowl wins), but also some other bust guys. I actually did some research on this recently in an effort to combat Jags fans that were saying that Leftwich wasn't playing well enough for a top 10 QB draft position. Compared to the actual data he's doing pretty well. McNair = Solid? The guy was an MVP and a yard from Super Bowl winner.

 

[cstu]

You're settting the bar way too high here. Anyone drafting Leinart or Young should be THRILLED if either has a career like Bledsoe and McNair.

 

[sho nuff]

If you take it back a bit more you get guys like Elway and Aikman(5 Super Bowl wins), but also some other bust guys. I actually did some research on this recently in an effort to combat Jags fans that were saying that Leftwich wasn't playing well enough for a top 10 QB draft position. Compared to the actual data he's doing pretty well.

McNair = Solid? The guy was an MVP and a yard from Super Bowl winner.

Actually he was a yard from a tie.

 

[David Yudkin]

You're settting the bar way too high here. Anyone drafting Leinart or Young should be THRILLED if either has a career like Bledsoe and McNair.

I don't diasagree that expecting a Manning or a McNabb from a Top 5 slot, but if you look at some other positions, the question then arises as to which football position had more busts vs productive players (ie, are there less risky picks at other positions).

 

[cstu]

The hit rate duing the 90's was 4/14 (29%) with Bledsoe, McNair, Manning and McNabb. However, if you look at only top 3 picks, which all 4 were, it was 4/10 (40%).

 

[cstu]

You're settting the bar way too high here. Anyone drafting Leinart or Young should be THRILLED if either has a career like Bledsoe and McNair.

I don't diasagree that expecting a Manning or a McNabb from a Top 5 slot, but if you look at some other positions, the question then arises as to which football position had more busts vs productive players (ie, are there less risky picks at other positions).

QB is a very tough position and I agree that it's not one where you want to take chances. The best QB picks have on a guys that everyone knew were all-world from college, but even then it's less than a 50% hit rate. However, the bad teams always draft first and they usually need a QB and are looking for a savior.

 

[cstu]

Taking a look at the QB's taken 1982-1999, it seems that the #1 QB has a fairly good record, but the #2 QB seems to do worse than the #3 QB despite the #3 QB being taken a round or more later in many cases. First QB taken:Art SchlichterJohn ElwayBoomer EsiasonRandall CunninghamJim EverettVinny TestaverdeChris ChandlerTroy AikmanJeff GeorgeDan McGwireDavid KlinglerDrew BledsoeHeath ShulerSteve McNairTony BanksJim DruckenmillerPeyton ManningTim CouchSecond QB taken:Jim McMahonTodd BlackledgeJeff HostetlerFrank ReichChuck LongKelly StoufferDon McPhersonMike ElkinsAndre WareTodd MarinovichTommy MaddoxRick MirerTrent DilferKerry CollinsBobby HoyingJake PlummerRyan LeafDonovan McNabbThird QB taken:Oliver LuckJim KellyRick McIvorSteve BonoJack TrudeauChris MillerScott SeculesBilly Joe TolliverTommy HodsonBrett FavreMatt BlundinBilly Joe HobertPerry KleinTodd CollinsJeff LewisDanny WuerffelCharlie BatchAkili Smith

 

[stbugs]

If you take it back a bit more you get guys like Elway and Aikman(5 Super Bowl wins), but also some other bust guys. I actually did some research on this recently in an effort to combat Jags fans that were saying that Leftwich wasn't playing well enough for a top 10 QB draft position. Compared to the actual data he's doing pretty well.

McNair = Solid? The guy was an MVP and a yard from Super Bowl winner.

Going back in recent history, there are a significant number of good QBs that were taken at the top of the draft.

Don't forget that there are as as many top non QB busts. Just looking at #1 and #2 overall picks since 1986, we have this list of underachievers, i.e. guys I would compare to some of the "not so good QBs" listed above in that they weren't studs like you would expect from that high a pick:

Tony Mandarich, Dan Wilkinson, Aundray Bruce, Steve Emtman, Courteny Brown, Leonard Davis, LaVar Arrington, Charles Rogers, Kijana Carter, Blair Thomas, Quentin Coryatt, Neil Smith, Darrell Russell, Tony Casillas, Kevin Hardy, and Russell Maryland.

Remember this list is only for the #1 or #2 overall picks over the last 20 years, but not including 2004/2005 (too early to tell), so just 36 total picks. So out of the 24 non QBs, I could easily label 16 of them as pretty solid busts. That means that you have a 67% chance of a non QB to be a bust.

On the QB side out of 12 picks, I would say 6 have lived up to expectations: Manning, McNabb, Aikman, Vick, Palmer (hopefully injury is not career threatening), and Bledsoe (4 Pro-Bowls and many playoff appearances). This also means that I consider Testaverde a bust although some might say his longevity isn't that bad compared to other #1 pick busts. So QBs are 50% successful, which is a better rate than non-QBs.

So when all is said and done, even with the Ryan Leafs of the NFL, it seems like from the top 2 overall picks, QBs have a higher hit rate than non-QBs.

 

[Tick]

The hit rate duing the 90's was 4/14 (29%) with Bledsoe, McNair, Manning and McNabb. However, if you look at only top 3 picks, which all 4 were, it was 4/10 (40%).

Why don't Collins, George, and Dilfer count as hits?