The conditions
42 at the gun, 48 at target finish time. Less than 5 mph wind throughout, mostly cloudy w/less than 25% chance of rain (increased probabilities later in the day). Gonna be a cold start as sunrise isn't until almost 8, but even then it'll be more clouds than sun (a good thing later in the race, obviously). Can't ask for any better.
The body
Calf feels fine, but there is a nonzero chance it is a trap that I'll find out during the race. I really could've used that massage as stress (back/shoulders/neck/etc.) is a mess. Wife will do what she can tonight then I'll let the sports doc work some leg magic tomorrow. Some other stuff is going on too but a) I think it's over compensation related to the calf and b) if it is a problem I'm cautiously optimistic it won't impact performance; just may cause some additional time off after.
Diet
Tuesday night bottle of red aside, despite...everything else - diet has been great. I feel a little dehydrated, but I've been VERY liberal with water intake so it may just be the recent change to dry air. Piles of pasta are on tap for tonight, but I need to spend some time tonight game planning the final 48 hours of fuel.
During the race I will carry a couple bags of chews with me (chasing w/water - no gatorade) and will plot out locations for my wife to hand me 1/2 honey jam sammy's throughout (miles 6, 11, and 16). It'll be a blue dum-dum to get started and I'll have 2 reds in my pocket for later - one for after the mile 11 honey jam sammy and one for the final 10k in case my body says no more chews.
Pre-race will be black coffee, banana, and toast. I'll munch on some pretzels and a couple clementines during the drive down.
The plan
My wife will drop me off as close as she can about 30 mins before the gun. I'll use that 3/4 mile - 1+ mile to warm up. Race attire will be bandana, sleeveless, gloves, shorts, and compression socks. I'll have a throwaway hoodie for pre-race with plans on dumping it a mile in. May do a stocking cap as well.
Actual race - there are a couple of meaningful bridges over the first 3 miles. I intend to take it easy relative to goal pace until descending on bridge #2. Miles 2 and 3 will probably be > 7 min pace (but near there) and mile 1 depends on traffic. What my HR says once to flatter ground mile 4 will dictate what I do next. In an ideal world I'm seeing something < 150 and I can try to settle into goal pace (6:50). If the readings are suboptimal then I'll go to plan b - hold near 7 flat through 15 knowing I'll need a negative split.
There are long inclines from miles 4.5-5.5, 11.25-12.5, 14-15, and 24-25.25. I intend to take the foot off the gas some on the first 3. I'm a bigger body, so I require more effort going up...gravity also helps on the way back down though. If things are going well my HR often bounces back as I descend if I am smart not to exert too much energy going up. Given the length of the inclines I think conservatism is the right play. Until the last one anyway. Nothing matters then - just Rf;Dbap.
That said, I have concerns what my HR will actually be during the race. I'm not surprised I've seen concerning numbers since getting back out there again Sunday...but I have. I've felt it too. And that's been persistent throughout the last 2 months. And fact is I've done just 25 miles over the last 2 weeks and not much went right running-wise over the 10 days before that either. There will be some amount of suffering required Sunday. Will I be able to handle the amount of it required to reach my goal? I don't know, but if this ends badly at least I have experience dealing with marathon failure. It's all I know!
Goals
A goal - 2:XX:XX. Get half way a nose over 1:30. If they have a timing mat around mile 20 like I think they will, get there under 2:20. Then hope I have some gas left in the tank and cut it loose. I liked my chances a month ago but this may not be realistic anymore.
B goal - sub 7 min pace. This will turn into the goal if I don't like what I'm seeing early in the race. I'd get to halfway around 1:32-1:33 and that 20 mile timing mat around 2:22-2:23. If this race is actually 26.2 miles that's about 3 hours 2-3 mins depending on what my negative split potential is, but no marathon is 26.2 miles. So this would probably be more like 3:05 and leave me on the bubble (BQ - 3:10).
There is no C goal. My pr is 3:08:04, but I don't care about a PR - it's Boston or bust.
I'll post bib and tracking info after I get my packet.