Any of you nerds use TrainingPeaks? I signed up for the 7 day premium trial yesterday, and it brought over all my runs (ever) from Garmin Connect. It's got some amazing charts and graphs that analyze fitness, fatigue, intensity, and "form", which is fitness-fatigue, or race-readiness. I've spent the last hour plugging in planned workouts for the next two weeks and playing with those a bit to see what affect it has on the chart and the numbers going into Canyons 100K.
Now I don't know how accurate a predictor of fitness and performance these actually are, but it's pretty damned interesting data to look at.
Performance Management Chart
Red dots - Training Stress Score, a composite number that takes into account the duration and intensity of a workout to arrive at a single estimate of the overall training load and physiological stress created by that training session
Blue line - Fitness, an exponentially weighted average of your last 42 days (
by default) of
training stress scores (TSS) and reflects the training you have done over the last 3 months. However, the workouts you did 15 days ago will impact your Fitness more than the workouts you did 6 weeks ago.
Pink line - Fatigue, An exponentially weighted average of your
training stress scores from the past 7 days which provides an estimate of your fatigue accounting for the workouts you have done in the past two weeks.
Yellow line - Form, Training Stress Balance (TSB) or Form represents the balance of training stress. Form (TSB) = Yesterday's Fitness (
CTL) - Yesterday's Fatigue (
ATL). A positive TSB number means that you would have a good chance of performing well during those 'positive' days, and would suggest that you are both fit and fresh