Random Fantasy Thoughts
Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick are the only Quarterbacks with "stud" potential. If you don't draft one of them this year, you're kidding yourself at what is probably your league's "highest scoring" position.
Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson make for nice consolation prizes, although they would not be my ideal starting Quarterbacks.
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Know who your players are.
For instance, Torrey Smith and TY Hilton are "never" going to be high-volume receivers. They are going to make the majority of their bread off a few big plays. They are not the model of consistency.
Most of the time, you're going to see them abuse certain secondaries where a specific player is going to have trouble covering them.
See also, Chris Johnson. Sure, you're going to have weeks where he goes off huge and wins your game for you. But come Round 1 of the Playoffs and he rushes 14 times for 46 yards, you're going to be pissed.
It's almost proven, with the right personnel on defense you can shutdown Chris Johnson.
Be prepared for weeks where these guys give you goose eggs.
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Rookies provide excellent value if you pick the correct ones. The guy who drafted Trent Richardson and Doug Martin last-year had a FANTASTIC Running Back stable at a huge discount. Meanwhile the guy who took David Wilson last-year wishes he had his pick back.
Eddie Lacey looks to be shaking out as the only Rookie without any huge hurdles to overcome for carries. Worst case scenario for Lacey is that he's the Goalline back for one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Can easily see him vulturing TD like Mikel Leshoure did last year.
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Tight End is a fun position to draft each year because you can usually find somebody who's going to produce for you when you need it. You can usually create a nice committee simply based off late picks.
Last year, you could grab Jermaine Gresham, Martellus Bennett, Kyle Rudolph, and Jared Cook all at a pretty decent price. If you started them during the right week, you had decent production all year round.
This year, you can probably make a committee of guys like Rob Housler, Zach Sudfeld, Julius Thomas, Jared Cook, Zach Ertz, and Tyler Eifert on the cheap. You can literally pay peanuts for guys with pretty decent upside. If a vet like Witten drops in your draft, you could end up with a pretty decent Tight End core.
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Don't sleep on guys like Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, and Roddy White. While they may not be the most "athletic" or "exciting" guys on their particular offenses, they are all very talented players with GREAT Quarterbacks.
Moreso, if opposing defenses start bending to cover other players it gives them a great chance to make plays. All of Quarterbacks these guys play with have the potential to throw 40+ Touchdowns.
They have the potential to catch multiple TDs more than a few times this season, yet everyone's going to rush to grab Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Not saying they don't have more upside, but at some point you need to grab value.
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There are players you need to simply "write off" your draft board.
Personally, in no league will I draft Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, or Demarco Murray. When you run with as much reckless abandon as these two, you're going to get hurt.
Same thing with a guy like Matthew Stafford. Not only does he have an injury history in the NFL but he only threw for 20 Touchdowns last season. How do you only throw for 20 Touchdowns with Calvin Johnson at Wide Receiver? That guy should be a lock for 10+.
Hell, Christian Ponder threw for 18 Touchdowns last year. Jay Cutler threw for 19.
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Take advantage of suspensions.
People are down on Justin Blackmon for reasons I don't understand. If you look at the highlights from last year, he had a decent rapport with Chad Henne. He was able to get open deep and was a nightmare for defensive backs to tackle, the guy was an absolute tank.
I don't know about you, but my league isn't decided in the 1st Four Weeks of the regular season. I had a team that started off 0 - 3 and went on a HUGE win streak to eventually make the playoffs and win the Championship. Grab a guy like Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon.
I am particurily high on Blackmon simply because how terribly Jacksonville's defense is year-in and year-out; meaning they'll be airing it out quite frequently. Both players have a great chance to improve upon their Rookie seasons.
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Returns from injury are also a great thing to take advantage of. Anyone who owned Adrian Peterson last year knows this firsthand.
Robert Griffin III is the prime example of this. He was a Top 5 scoring Quarterback last-year who could have potentially been the HIGHEST SCORING player in some leagues last-year. Yet, I see him being drafted in the 4th / 5th round?
I mean, if you're going to let me stock up on WR / RB in the first few rounds and snag RG3 late then you might as well be handing me the Championship.
Same goes for Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady is playing at such a ridiculous level that if this guy is on the field, Gronkowski is going to see much - much opportunity. Especially in the redzone this is where these guys feast.
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Change of scenery is typically a place to find decent value. Michael Turner was going in the 4th / 5th round the year he transferred over to the Falcons. He ended up being a HUGE value play.
This year, however, I think your results may vary.
Steven Jackson, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Christopher Ivory are the prime candidates for value here. Jackson, Welker, and Bradshaw obviously have the most upside due to the explosive Offenses they play in.
But Jennings certainly has value simply off the space Adrian Peterson creates. Play-action, Jennings is open deep. Touchdown! Christian Ponder has a decent deep ball, I recall him hitting Jarius Wright (sp) on a beautiful bomb deep last season.
Jennings is going WAY too late in my opinion and presents a steal similar to Reggie Wayne last-year where people avoid WR over the age of 30.
Chris Ivory only has to put on his best Shonn Greene impression to have value (and he's much more talented than Greene) and Bradshaw running in an Offense lead by Andrew Luck seems like money if the guy can stay healthy.
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Besides that, have a list of guys you think have the potential to breakout but will probably go undrafted in your league. For instance, last-year when I saw TY Hilton during the draft I really liked the guys moves. I picked him up and he helped me win a Championship as my flex-guy.
The obvious are rookies like Cordarrelle Patterson and DeAndre Hopkins. But guys who might fly under the radar are guys like Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts, Christine Michael, Giovanni Bernard, Keenan Allen, Kendall Wright, Ryan Broyles, Joseph Randel, Isaac Redman, Damaris Johnson, Leonard Hankerson, Kenbrell Thompkins, etc.
They might not be in the starting lineup right now, but given their situations they have the talent to produce if they see the field.
If Demarco Murray goes down, you're going to want to know who the Cowboys drafted at RB this off-season.
Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick are the only Quarterbacks with "stud" potential. If you don't draft one of them this year, you're kidding yourself at what is probably your league's "highest scoring" position.
Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson make for nice consolation prizes, although they would not be my ideal starting Quarterbacks.
-
Know who your players are.
For instance, Torrey Smith and TY Hilton are "never" going to be high-volume receivers. They are going to make the majority of their bread off a few big plays. They are not the model of consistency.
Most of the time, you're going to see them abuse certain secondaries where a specific player is going to have trouble covering them.
See also, Chris Johnson. Sure, you're going to have weeks where he goes off huge and wins your game for you. But come Round 1 of the Playoffs and he rushes 14 times for 46 yards, you're going to be pissed.
It's almost proven, with the right personnel on defense you can shutdown Chris Johnson.
Be prepared for weeks where these guys give you goose eggs.
-
Rookies provide excellent value if you pick the correct ones. The guy who drafted Trent Richardson and Doug Martin last-year had a FANTASTIC Running Back stable at a huge discount. Meanwhile the guy who took David Wilson last-year wishes he had his pick back.
Eddie Lacey looks to be shaking out as the only Rookie without any huge hurdles to overcome for carries. Worst case scenario for Lacey is that he's the Goalline back for one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Can easily see him vulturing TD like Mikel Leshoure did last year.
-
Tight End is a fun position to draft each year because you can usually find somebody who's going to produce for you when you need it. You can usually create a nice committee simply based off late picks.
Last year, you could grab Jermaine Gresham, Martellus Bennett, Kyle Rudolph, and Jared Cook all at a pretty decent price. If you started them during the right week, you had decent production all year round.
This year, you can probably make a committee of guys like Rob Housler, Zach Sudfeld, Julius Thomas, Jared Cook, Zach Ertz, and Tyler Eifert on the cheap. You can literally pay peanuts for guys with pretty decent upside. If a vet like Witten drops in your draft, you could end up with a pretty decent Tight End core.
-
Don't sleep on guys like Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, and Roddy White. While they may not be the most "athletic" or "exciting" guys on their particular offenses, they are all very talented players with GREAT Quarterbacks.
Moreso, if opposing defenses start bending to cover other players it gives them a great chance to make plays. All of Quarterbacks these guys play with have the potential to throw 40+ Touchdowns.
They have the potential to catch multiple TDs more than a few times this season, yet everyone's going to rush to grab Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Not saying they don't have more upside, but at some point you need to grab value.
-
There are players you need to simply "write off" your draft board.
Personally, in no league will I draft Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, or Demarco Murray. When you run with as much reckless abandon as these two, you're going to get hurt.
Same thing with a guy like Matthew Stafford. Not only does he have an injury history in the NFL but he only threw for 20 Touchdowns last season. How do you only throw for 20 Touchdowns with Calvin Johnson at Wide Receiver? That guy should be a lock for 10+.
Hell, Christian Ponder threw for 18 Touchdowns last year. Jay Cutler threw for 19.
-
Take advantage of suspensions.
People are down on Justin Blackmon for reasons I don't understand. If you look at the highlights from last year, he had a decent rapport with Chad Henne. He was able to get open deep and was a nightmare for defensive backs to tackle, the guy was an absolute tank.
I don't know about you, but my league isn't decided in the 1st Four Weeks of the regular season. I had a team that started off 0 - 3 and went on a HUGE win streak to eventually make the playoffs and win the Championship. Grab a guy like Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon.
I am particurily high on Blackmon simply because how terribly Jacksonville's defense is year-in and year-out; meaning they'll be airing it out quite frequently. Both players have a great chance to improve upon their Rookie seasons.
-
Returns from injury are also a great thing to take advantage of. Anyone who owned Adrian Peterson last year knows this firsthand.
Robert Griffin III is the prime example of this. He was a Top 5 scoring Quarterback last-year who could have potentially been the HIGHEST SCORING player in some leagues last-year. Yet, I see him being drafted in the 4th / 5th round?
I mean, if you're going to let me stock up on WR / RB in the first few rounds and snag RG3 late then you might as well be handing me the Championship.
Same goes for Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady is playing at such a ridiculous level that if this guy is on the field, Gronkowski is going to see much - much opportunity. Especially in the redzone this is where these guys feast.
-
Change of scenery is typically a place to find decent value. Michael Turner was going in the 4th / 5th round the year he transferred over to the Falcons. He ended up being a HUGE value play.
This year, however, I think your results may vary.
Steven Jackson, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Christopher Ivory are the prime candidates for value here. Jackson, Welker, and Bradshaw obviously have the most upside due to the explosive Offenses they play in.
But Jennings certainly has value simply off the space Adrian Peterson creates. Play-action, Jennings is open deep. Touchdown! Christian Ponder has a decent deep ball, I recall him hitting Jarius Wright (sp) on a beautiful bomb deep last season.
Jennings is going WAY too late in my opinion and presents a steal similar to Reggie Wayne last-year where people avoid WR over the age of 30.
Chris Ivory only has to put on his best Shonn Greene impression to have value (and he's much more talented than Greene) and Bradshaw running in an Offense lead by Andrew Luck seems like money if the guy can stay healthy.
-
Besides that, have a list of guys you think have the potential to breakout but will probably go undrafted in your league. For instance, last-year when I saw TY Hilton during the draft I really liked the guys moves. I picked him up and he helped me win a Championship as my flex-guy.
The obvious are rookies like Cordarrelle Patterson and DeAndre Hopkins. But guys who might fly under the radar are guys like Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts, Christine Michael, Giovanni Bernard, Keenan Allen, Kendall Wright, Ryan Broyles, Joseph Randel, Isaac Redman, Damaris Johnson, Leonard Hankerson, Kenbrell Thompkins, etc.
They might not be in the starting lineup right now, but given their situations they have the talent to produce if they see the field.
If Demarco Murray goes down, you're going to want to know who the Cowboys drafted at RB this off-season.
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