"Raw" or "Project" WRs that panned out? (1 Viewer)

[dharmapunk]

I'll submit Pierre Garcon.

Drafted in the lat 6th round from a Division III school, and made a solid impact in year 2 in a very sophisticated NFL offense.

I had a sense that he might be worthwhile when Polian drafted him, as he usually goes for players from big-name schools for his offensive skill positions.

Garcon still has some things to improve upon, but I'd say he's on his way.

Like Andre Reed from Kutztown State? Polian is just good at evaluating talent, big school or small.

 

[identikit]

I'll submit Pierre Garcon.

Drafted in the lat 6th round from a Division III school, and made a solid impact in year 2 in a very sophisticated NFL offense.

I had a sense that he might be worthwhile when Polian drafted him, as he usually goes for players from big-name schools for his offensive skill positions.

Garcon still has some things to improve upon, but I'd say he's on his way.

Like Andre Reed from Kutztown State? Polian is just good at evaluating talent, big school or small.

Agree wholeheartedly with bolded.'Usually' was the key word in my post.

Miami (FL), Iowa, LSU, BYU are the schools that the Colt's offensive skill positions come from (that Polian had a hand in drafting).

So when he goes outside of that and picks a small-school guy (from say a Mount Union or a Kutztown State), it's worth paying attention to. Those guys are usually attainable @ a pretty cheap price. Like Garcon, who was most likely a WW pickup for most FF owners.

 

[Topes]

Drew Bennett.

 

[mcdons3]

I feel like this entire thread is just about calling out names of WRs who weren't household names in college rather than trying to figure out what it means to be a "project WR". I mean, if we're going to lump Jerry Rice in as a project with all these pure athletic freaks that end up playing WR in the NFL, then what are we really talking about? Jerry Rice was anything but a project. I'd be hard pressed to think of a single player who came out of college with better ball skills or route running skills.

So can we at least clarify what we mean when we say "project"?

 

[Road Warriors]

I feel like this entire thread is just about calling out names of WRs who weren't household names in college rather than trying to figure out what it means to be a "project WR". I mean, if we're going to lump Jerry Rice in as a project with all these pure athletic freaks that end up playing WR in the NFL, then what are we really talking about? Jerry Rice was anything but a project. I'd be hard pressed to think of a single player who came out of college with better ball skills or route running skills.So can we at least clarify what we mean when we say "project"?

I'll throw out a definition... Any WR drafted by Al Davis.

 

[mcdons3]

I feel like this entire thread is just about calling out names of WRs who weren't household names in college rather than trying to figure out what it means to be a "project WR". I mean, if we're going to lump Jerry Rice in as a project with all these pure athletic freaks that end up playing WR in the NFL, then what are we really talking about? Jerry Rice was anything but a project. I'd be hard pressed to think of a single player who came out of college with better ball skills or route running skills.So can we at least clarify what we mean when we say "project"?

I'll throw out a definition... Any WR drafted by Al Davis.

Well, there was Tim Brown in 1988, although Al did take him over Sterling Sharpe and Michael Irvin...

 

[Pickle Rody]

Ed McCaffrey - Drafted by the New York Giants in the 3rd round (83rd overall) of the 1991 NFL Draft. During his 13 year career he notched his first 1,000 yard season and first double digit TD season in year 8 ('98), for the Denver Broncos. Followed up with 2 more 1,000 yard seasons in years 9 & 10 and a 900+ yard season in year 12. Finished his career with 7,422 yards and 55 TD's. Linky

 

[offdee]

I'd think "project" WR's would be considered...

- Any WR drafted in the 4th/5th round or later

- Guys who are drafted as a WR, but didn't play that as their main position in college (Hines Ward, Brad Smith, Brandon Marshall, Matt Jones, Pat White, etc.)

 

[SSOG]

I'd think "project" WR's would be considered...- Any WR drafted in the 4th/5th round or later - Guys who are drafted as a WR, but didn't play that as their main position in college (Hines Ward, Brad Smith, Brandon Marshall, Matt Jones, Pat White, etc.)

Marshall's main position was WR, he just spent a year at safety after injuries decimated UCF's secondary. Also, Pat White was drafted as a QB.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Wes Welker definitely

TJ Houshmandzadeh possibly

 

[Marauder]

I'd think "project" WR's would be considered...- Any WR drafted in the 4th/5th round or later - Guys who are drafted as a WR, but didn't play that as their main position in college (Hines Ward, Brad Smith, Brandon Marshall, Matt Jones, Pat White, etc.)

It doesn't look like that is what the OP meant. He gave two examples, neither of which fit either of those definitions.

 

[Road Warriors]

Wes Welker definitelyTJ Houshmandzadeh possibly

Welker I don't see as a project, as I'm thinking of the definition. He was a talented, productive receiver in college, but didn't have the NFL measurables for WR. He didn't need to drastically improve his hands or routes, he needed to be put in a system that could take advantage of his strengths, quickness in and out of breaks, precise routes, good hands and toughness over the middle. Once he was featured in that role, he became what we've seen over the past few years.I'm not as familiar with Housh from his college days, but in his early days, he was the quietly productive WR playing next to the rather loud Chad Johnson. It looks like he had some success his 2nd year ( 40/500 ), injured his 3rd year then started on a solid run of production with 70+/900+ for the next 6 years in CIN and SEA before moving on BAL this year. He may have been a project, but he's been effective in the NFL from his second year on.

 

[Road Warriors]

I feel like this entire thread is just about calling out names of WRs who weren't household names in college rather than trying to figure out what it means to be a "project WR". I mean, if we're going to lump Jerry Rice in as a project with all these pure athletic freaks that end up playing WR in the NFL, then what are we really talking about? Jerry Rice was anything but a project. I'd be hard pressed to think of a single player who came out of college with better ball skills or route running skills.So can we at least clarify what we mean when we say "project"?

I'll throw out a definition... Any WR drafted by Al Davis.

Well, there was Tim Brown in 1988, although Al did take him over Sterling Sharpe and Michael Irvin...

Going back 22 years to find one... I suppose Al may have still had his faculties about him back then. For a real answer, to me the project WR is the guy that has all the physical tools that have NFL GMs salivating over what they can turn a player into "with the right coaching" DHB is a great current example. Willie Gault, Renaldo Nehamiah come to mind as old-school examples. I'd call guys that are taken later in the draft as having the perception by the draft gurus as lacking something, size, speed, something. Most late round guys are flyers that may work out, but those that do tend not to be projects as much as better players than their draft stock indicated.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I feel like this entire thread is just about calling out names of WRs who weren't household names in college rather than trying to figure out what it means to be a "project WR". I mean, if we're going to lump Jerry Rice in as a project with all these pure athletic freaks that end up playing WR in the NFL, then what are we really talking about? Jerry Rice was anything but a project. I'd be hard pressed to think of a single player who came out of college with better ball skills or route running skills.So can we at least clarify what we mean when we say "project"?

I'll throw out a definition... Any WR drafted by Al Davis.

Well, there was Tim Brown in 1988, although Al did take him over Sterling Sharpe and Michael Irvin...

Going back 22 years to find one... I suppose Al may have still had his faculties about him back then. For a real answer, to me the project WR is the guy that has all the physical tools that have NFL GMs salivating over what they can turn a player into "with the right coaching" DHB is a great current example. Willie Gault, Renaldo Nehamiah come to mind as old-school examples. I'd call guys that are taken later in the draft as having the perception by the draft gurus as lacking something, size, speed, something. Most late round guys are flyers that may work out, but those that do tend not to be projects as much as better players than their draft stock indicated.

Using your definition, I would want to include "Bullet" Bob Hayes into this discussion. Maybe pro football's original project player that forever changed the game. In some cases like with Hayes, its just a matter that their skill set is so overwhelming that the amount of coaching required to turn some players into great performers is less than some others even without a HS or in some cases a college football background. When I think of a project player, one name which came immediately to mind even though he wasn't a wr was Christian Okoye.

 

[Heisman187]

Every year we see these raw or unpolished WRs come into the league that need some seasoning before they can blossom. Guys like Ted Ginn, Darrius Heyward-Bey, etc. It just seems like these project WRs never end up amounting to much. Can anyone give me an example of a "project" WR that did eventually turn into something great?..and in general, what do you look for in a guy that has raw ability to differentiate between the players that will boom, and most that will bust?

TO should be the poster boy for this section of WRs. I'm not sure Jerry Rice was a project guy, he was awesome at any time in his career i'm sure. I think the OP's question should have been clarified to mean physical studs but not born to be receiver studs. Like DHB is physically incredible, size, speed, strength, etc. But he is not meant to be a WR. Someone like Crabtree is destined to be a WR. He just has "it" whatever that is. Even though he has laid some eggs this year, you can just tell that the kid oozes talent at the WR spot.All in all i think guys like DHB never make it because they are sprinters or track and field athletes over WRs. A guy like Crabtree or Fitzgerald has it all, incredible athletes but also born to be WRs.

I agree with this. I guess more specifically, can anyone think of a physical freak like a DHB that had bad hands and ran poor routes but then later became a stud WR?

 

[offdee]

I'd think "project" WR's would be considered...

- Any WR drafted in the 4th/5th round or later

- Guys who are drafted as a WR, but didn't play that as their main position in college (Hines Ward, Brad Smith, Brandon Marshall, Matt Jones, Pat White, etc.)

It doesn't look like that is what the OP meant. He gave two examples, neither of which fit either of those definitions.

I guess the real question is then...Who are the "raw/project" WR's that were drafted in the top two rounds that actually amounted to anything?

The list will be minimal.

Some that I can think of from recent times that busted out are: Matt Jones, Troy Williamson, Tyrone Calico, Chad Jackson, Devin Thomas, Tedd Ginn Jr

 

[encaitar]

Yeah, I guess there really should be a better definition of "project/raw" receivers. Almost every receiver in the league is a project receiver. I'd say each year, there are maybe 2 WRs in each draft that are ready to produce from day 1.

Look at Sidney Rice. Sure, now everyone can say "well look at his college days, he was dominant." He was drafted by maybe 2% of FF leagues last year because most people didn't think much of him. He was a project in every sense of the word. Great physical skills, but no mental skills(route running, blocking, etc.) It's easy to say you knew he was gonna succeed, but more people than not were calling him a bust a year and a half ago.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

First 2 I thought of were Roddy White and Vincent Jackson.

 

[Utter Chaos]

Julian Edelman was a QB for Kent State in college before being converted to slot receiver by the Pats. He's still raw but had some moments of success last year in relief of Welker after he hurt his knee.

Josh Cribbs was also a QB for Kent State.

 

[sn0mm1s]

Just about every WR in the NFL starts off as a project. Most don't become good to great WRs until their 3rd year in the league. Off the top of my head I can only think of 3 WRs that made big impacts as rookies within the last 20 years or so - Moss, Boldin, Terry Glenn. WRs that hit the ground running are the exception not the norm.

 

[DawnBTVS]

WR Jimmy Smith

- Drafted in the 2nd Round out of Jackson State

- Misses '92 and '93 with injuries. Gets cut in '94 and misses that season.

- Lands in Jacksonville in '95 part due to his mother sending Tom Coughlin a binder full of press clippings(!) Only has 22 catches in 4 starts

Finally explodes onto the scene in '96 despite missing 3 full seasons and being 27 years old by then.

 

[Bob Henry]

Rod Smith and Donald Driver for sure.

To a lesser degree, Bert Emanuel and Oronde Gadsden also come to mind.

 

[ArlingtonTerp]

Guys who were drafted really late aren't really the type of project we are talking about here. It's the guys whose physical abilities make them drafted high/have a lot of hype despite lacking some key receiver skills some of their peers already have. While it may seem those guys fail more, I don't know...plenty of the reverse fail out just as much. Guys like Desmond Howard, David Terrell, or Peter Warrick. Most guys picked in the first round never become stars, or number 1 fantasy WRs, or even longtime starters. Many of those guys are not projects, they are guys like Redel Anthony, Troy Edwards, Travis Taylor, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Charles Rogers, Michael Clayton, Rashaun Woods, etc.

 

[VaCatFan]

Steve Smith - Carolina

A lot of the Carolina fans were against picking up a small WR from the Mountain West Conference. When he was designated the punt and kick returner, even more fans thought he was a bust.

College career (1997-2001)

After graduating from high school, Smith attended Santa Monica College. While playing for the college’s football team, Smith quickly defined himself as a talented football player, and earned a starting position. During this time, Smith was teammates with future NFL wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, making this small college duo one of the most dynamic ever.

While impressing spectators with his performance on the football field, Santa Monica’s head coach, Robert Taylor, encouraged Smith to not play for riches or fame, but to play so that he might earn a scholarship to a Division-I school, where he could receive a better education. He also advised Smith and OchoCinco to not do touchdown celebrations and as Smith said, "they put the cuffs on us." Smith took Taylor’s advice to heart, and excelled in his academics, not missing a single day of classes while attending Santa Monica.

After completing two years at Santa Monica College, Smith transferred to the University of Utah, where he established himself as a standout wideout in the Mountain West Conference where he was a teammate of running back Mike Anderson. While at the University of Utah, Smith set the record for yards per catch with a 20.6 average, and was chosen to play for the conference’s all-star team twice. However he missed their bowl game in his final season due to injury. After the Blue-Gray All-Star game on December 25, 2000, Smith began to receive attention from various NFL scouts. He and his wife have endowed an athletics scholarship at the University of Utah.

Professional career (2001-present)

2001 NFL Draft

The Carolina Panthers chose Smith in the third round (74th Overall) during the 2001 NFL Draft.

Pre-draft measureables (* represents NFL Combine)

Wt 40y 20ss 3-cone Vert BP Wonderlic

184 lb* 4.41s* 4.25s* 7.44s* 38.5 in* 220 23*

Initial success (2001-2004)

Smith spent a majority of his rookie season as a kick and punt returner, leading all rookies in net yardage with 1,994 yards, and landing in fourth place among all NFL players behind Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, and Derrick Mason. Smith’s performance was rewarded with an invite to the 2002 Pro Bowl. Smith joined Wesley Walls and Todd Sauerbrun as the only players to represent the Panthers in the 2002 Pro Bowl.

During the 2002 NFL season, Smith earned a starting position as a wide receiver and continued to carry out his kickoff and punt return duties. On November 10, 2002, Smith was involved with an altercation with his teammate Anthony Bright during a film-room meeting.[3] The altercation left Bright with a broken nose and he was hospitalized for two nights. Smith was arrested and briefly jailed on charges of misdemeanor assault and the Panthers suspended him for one game. Smith finished the year with 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 touchdowns.

During the 2003 season, Smith played a critical role for the Panther offense. He finished the regular season with 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. During the NFC divisional playoffs, Smith caught a 69 yard pass and ran it for a touchdown in 2nd overtime to defeat the St. Louis Rams 29-23. He caught 4 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown and returned a kickoff for 30 yards in the Panthers 32-29 loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

*Steve Smith is one of three players in the history of the NFL to run back two punts for touchdowns and also catch a touchdown pass in the same game (the other two are Jermaine Lewis and Devin Hester).

*In the 2003 post season, Steve Smith gained a total of 403 yards. This was the most gained by anyone in the post season since Jerry Rice had gained 409 yards in 1988.

*During the 2005 season, Steve Smith became the first player since Art Monk in 1984 to lead the league in receiving yards even though his team ran more than it passed.

 

[SSOG]

Just about every WR in the NFL starts off as a project. Most don't become good to great WRs until their 3rd year in the league. Off the top of my head I can only think of 3 WRs that made big impacts as rookies within the last 20 years or so - Moss, Boldin, Terry Glenn. WRs that hit the ground running are the exception not the norm.

WRs with 120+ fantasy points as a rookie:2009: Percy Harvin- 925 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs (in 15 games)2008: Eddie Royal- 1089 yards from scrimmage, 5 TDs (in 15 games)2007: Dwayne Bowe- 995 yards from scrimmage, 5 TDs2006: Marques Colston- 1038 yards from scrimmage, 8 TDs (in 14 games)2005: none2004: Michael Clayton- 1223 yards from scrimmage, 7 TDsLee Evans- 928 yards from scrimmage, 9 TDsLarry Fitzgerald- 798 yfs, 8 TDsRoy Williams- 818 yfs, 8 TDs (14 games)2003: Anquan Boldin- 1417 yfs, 8 TDsAndre Johnson- 966 yfs, 4 TDs2002: none2001: Chris Chambers- 872 yfs, 7 TDs2000: noneThat's 11 receivers in the last 10 years who reached the 120 point mark (which would have guaranteed a top-30 finish in 8 of the past 10 seasons). 4 of them reached the 140 point mark (which would have guaranteed a top-20 finish in 8 of the past 10 seasons), and two of them scored 160+ points (Michael Clayton finished his rookie year as WR13, and Boldin finished as WR4). And Colston would have easily hit 160 had he played 16 games.In the decade before (1990-1999), there were 10 120+ point seasons, 5 140+ point seasons, and 2 160+ point seasons (Randy Moss, who was WR1 as a rookie, and Joey Galloway, who was WR14 as a rookie). The decade before that (1980-1989), there were 9 120+ point seasons, 4 140+ point seasons, and 1 160+ point season (Billy Brooks, WR9 as a rookie).Rookies who hit the ground running are not as uncommon as everyone thinks. On average, there's a good rookie every year, a great rookie every other year, and an exceptional rookie every third or fourth year.

 

[Utter Chaos]

WR Jimmy Smith- Drafted in the 2nd Round out of Jackson State- Misses '92 and '93 with injuries. Gets cut in '94 and misses that season.- Lands in Jacksonville in '95 part due to his mother sending Tom Coughlin a binder full of press clippings(!) Only has 22 catches in 4 startsFinally explodes onto the scene in '96 despite missing 3 full seasons and being 27 years old by then.

I thought about mentioning Jimmy Smith myself but somebody drafted in the second round can't be considered "raw" or "a project". Late bloomer, yes, but raw or a project, no.

 

[SSOG]

WR Jimmy Smith- Drafted in the 2nd Round out of Jackson State- Misses '92 and '93 with injuries. Gets cut in '94 and misses that season.- Lands in Jacksonville in '95 part due to his mother sending Tom Coughlin a binder full of press clippings(!) Only has 22 catches in 4 startsFinally explodes onto the scene in '96 despite missing 3 full seasons and being 27 years old by then.

I thought about mentioning Jimmy Smith myself but somebody drafted in the second round can't be considered "raw" or "a project". Late bloomer, yes, but raw or a project, no.

Well, the original post was asking for raw/prospect WRs like Ted Ginn or Darius Heyward-Bey, both of whom were top 10 picks.

 

[sn0mm1s]

Just about every WR in the NFL starts off as a project. Most don't become good to great WRs until their 3rd year in the league. Off the top of my head I can only think of 3 WRs that made big impacts as rookies within the last 20 years or so - Moss, Boldin, Terry Glenn. WRs that hit the ground running are the exception not the norm.

WRs with 120+ fantasy points as a rookie:2009: Percy Harvin- 925 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs (in 15 games)2008: Eddie Royal- 1089 yards from scrimmage, 5 TDs (in 15 games)2007: Dwayne Bowe- 995 yards from scrimmage, 5 TDs2006: Marques Colston- 1038 yards from scrimmage, 8 TDs (in 14 games)2005: none2004: Michael Clayton- 1223 yards from scrimmage, 7 TDsLee Evans- 928 yards from scrimmage, 9 TDsLarry Fitzgerald- 798 yfs, 8 TDsRoy Williams- 818 yfs, 8 TDs (14 games)2003: Anquan Boldin- 1417 yfs, 8 TDsAndre Johnson- 966 yfs, 4 TDs2002: none2001: Chris Chambers- 872 yfs, 7 TDs2000: noneThat's 11 receivers in the last 10 years who reached the 120 point mark (which would have guaranteed a top-30 finish in 8 of the past 10 seasons). 4 of them reached the 140 point mark (which would have guaranteed a top-20 finish in 8 of the past 10 seasons), and two of them scored 160+ points (Michael Clayton finished his rookie year as WR13, and Boldin finished as WR4). And Colston would have easily hit 160 had he played 16 games.In the decade before (1990-1999), there were 10 120+ point seasons, 5 140+ point seasons, and 2 160+ point seasons (Randy Moss, who was WR1 as a rookie, and Joey Galloway, who was WR14 as a rookie). The decade before that (1980-1989), there were 9 120+ point seasons, 4 140+ point seasons, and 1 160+ point season (Billy Brooks, WR9 as a rookie).Rookies who hit the ground running are not as uncommon as everyone thinks. On average, there's a good rookie every year, a great rookie every other year, and an exceptional rookie every third or fourth year.

If you add in Desean Jackson you have 12 WRs scoring 120+ fantasy pts non-ppr in the last 10 years - out of 281 drafted. With this breakdown180+ - Boldin160+ - Clayton140+ - Colston, Evans, Harvin120+ - Royal, Jackson, Bowe, Johnson, Chambers, Fitzgerald, WilliamsNow compare this to rookie RBs. There are 26 rookie RBs that score over 120pts over that same time frame - out of only 216 drafted I am not going to list them all but here are the top 13.280+ - Portis260+ - None240+ - Forte, Anderson220+ - Slaton, Peterson, Tomlinson, Jones-Drew200+ - Lewis, CJ, McGahee180+ - Addai, Domanick Williams, Reggie BushThe difference is huge - and this isn't just because RBs score more. In a non-ppr league 120+ pts will put most RBs in the top 30 as well. There are more RBs scoring 180+ points than there are WRs scoring 120+.Over the last 10 years a rookie WR has about a 4.3% chance of breaking into the top 30 WRs if you putting that cutoff around 120 pts. If you put the cutoff at 130 pts for RBs you still have 25 out of the 216 drafted RBs which is 11.6%. So 2.7 times more likely to have a rookie RB be a break that top 30 over a rookie WR.If you go back to 1980 you have 81 RBs with 120+ pts while only 31 WRs - I am sure the breakdown is about the same.

 

[switz]

Jerry RiceMiles AustinTO

Miles Austin is a good one. I'm pretty sure most people thought TO would be good in his rookie year, Jerry Rice was a little before my time, but wasn't he a great college player also?

Yes, Austin is a good one.No, no one thought TO would be good.Yes, Rice was a great college WR.I honestly don't see how DHB or Ginn could be considered "project" WRs. They were first round picks, not later round or undrafted WRs.On the other hand:Austin - undraftedAndre Reed - 4th round pickTO - late third rounderMarques Colston - 7th round pickCris Carter - 4th rounder in the supplemental draftDerrick Mason - 4th round pickJoe Horn - 5th rounder, was good for a bitTypically, I wouldn't consider a WR drafted in the top three rounds a "project" or "raw" WR. I made an exception with TO because it was a WR rich draft with 5 drafted in the first round. TO was I believe the 7th or 8th WR taken.

 

[saintfool]

I believe Joe Horn was considered a "raw" prospect. He was a 5th rounder out of Itawamba JC and was 24 when he hit the league and had a whopping 4 receptions in the league by the time he was 26. He stood at roughly 800+ yards for his career by the time he was 28 and went to NO as a FA. At that point, he went on a five year tear, averaging roughly 1200 yards and 9 TDs before age caught up with him. That is about as "raw" as it gets. If not for finally showing signs of life in his final year in KC, there is a good chance he would have been dropped from the Chiefs and picked up by no one.

joe horn also bought a vhs copy of an instructional video done by jerry rice and watched it nonstop for years before he went to the Saints.

 

[SSOG]

If you add in Desean Jackson you have 12 WRs scoring 120+ fantasy pts non-ppr in the last 10 years - out of 281 drafted. With this breakdown180+ - Boldin160+ - Clayton140+ - Colston, Evans, Harvin120+ - Royal, Jackson, Bowe, Johnson, Chambers, Fitzgerald, WilliamsNow compare this to rookie RBs. There are 26 rookie RBs that score over 120pts over that same time frame - out of only 216 drafted I am not going to list them all but here are the top 13.280+ - Portis260+ - None240+ - Forte, Anderson220+ - Slaton, Peterson, Tomlinson, Jones-Drew200+ - Lewis, CJ, McGahee180+ - Addai, Domanick Williams, Reggie BushThe difference is huge - and this isn't just because RBs score more. In a non-ppr league 120+ pts will put most RBs in the top 30 as well. There are more RBs scoring 180+ points than there are WRs scoring 120+.Over the last 10 years a rookie WR has about a 4.3% chance of breaking into the top 30 WRs if you putting that cutoff around 120 pts. If you put the cutoff at 130 pts for RBs you still have 25 out of the 216 drafted RBs which is 11.6%. So 2.7 times more likely to have a rookie RB be a break that top 30 over a rookie WR.If you go back to 1980 you have 81 RBs with 120+ pts while only 31 WRs - I am sure the breakdown is about the same.

First off, why would you add Desean Jackson? He only scored 117 points.Second off, 120 points typically will not rank an RB in the top 30. That score would have resulted in a top 30 finish in just 3 of the past 10 seasons.Third off, there's a difference between "top-30 WR" and "top-30 RB". A top-30 WR is a fantasy starter. A top-30 RB is a fantasy backup.Fourth, I never said that WRs were more likely to hit the ground running than rookies were, so you're arguing against a straw man, here. You said that it's rare for a rookie receiver to hit the ground running, and I was pointing out that it really wasn't rare at all. It's pretty much a yearly occurrence.

 

[sn0mm1s]

First off, why would you add Desean Jackson? He only scored 117 points.Second off, 120 points typically will not rank an RB in the top 30. That score would have resulted in a top 30 finish in just 3 of the past 10 seasons.Third off, there's a difference between "top-30 WR" and "top-30 RB". A top-30 WR is a fantasy starter. A top-30 RB is a fantasy backup.Fourth, I never said that WRs were more likely to hit the ground running than rookies were, so you're arguing against a straw man, here. You said that it's rare for a rookie receiver to hit the ground running, and I was pointing out that it really wasn't rare at all. It's pretty much a yearly occurrence.

1) Desean Jackson had 4 TDs - 2 receiving, 1 rushing, 1 kick return and 1008 yards from scrimmage - that puts him above 120.2) Where are you getting your numbers for the seasons? I used 130 as the cutoff for the percentages and 25 RBs had more than 130pts.3) No, most leagues start 2 RB or a 1RB and a flex - which in a non-ppr league is almost always a RB.4) It is rare for a rookie WR to hit the ground running. You think 4% of rookie WRs playing well enough to be a low end fantasy starter isn't rare? What would it need to be... 1%?Considering that there are almost always 2 WRs on the field you would think there would be quite a bit more successful rookies.

 

[SSOG]

First off, why would you add Desean Jackson? He only scored 117 points.

Second off, 120 points typically will not rank an RB in the top 30. That score would have resulted in a top 30 finish in just 3 of the past 10 seasons.

Third off, there's a difference between "top-30 WR" and "top-30 RB". A top-30 WR is a fantasy starter. A top-30 RB is a fantasy backup.

Fourth, I never said that WRs were more likely to hit the ground running than rookies were, so you're arguing against a straw man, here. You said that it's rare for a rookie receiver to hit the ground running, and I was pointing out that it really wasn't rare at all. It's pretty much a yearly occurrence.

1) Desean Jackson had 4 TDs - 2 receiving, 1 rushing, 1 kick return and 1008 yards from scrimmage - that puts him above 120.2) Where are you getting your numbers for the seasons? I used 130 as the cutoff for the percentages and 25 RBs had more than 130pts.

3) No, most leagues start 2 RB or a 1RB and a flex - which in a non-ppr league is almost always a RB.

4) It is rare for a rookie WR to hit the ground running. You think 4% of rookie WRs playing well enough to be a low end fantasy starter isn't rare? What would it need to be... 1%?Considering that there are almost always 2 WRs on the field you would think there would be quite a bit more successful rookies.

1) I always use standard FBGs scoring, since all my data is generally coming from the FBGs player pages, the FBGs data dominator, the FBGs historical data dominator, PFR (which uses FBGs scoring), or the FBGs historical fantasy stats pages. Standard FBGs scoring doesn't count kick return TDs, so Desean's at 117.2) I was going off of the 120 point cutoff, because that was the first cutoff you presented.

3) In a league that starts 2RBs or 1RB/1Flex, RB30 is a backup.

4) First off, the number of WRs on the field is irrelevant. There are 30 WRs in the top 30 every year. If there are more WRs on the field, then it's easier for a rookie to get on the field, but harder to beat out everyone else on the field to get into the top 30 (because there are more WRs on the field = higher level of competition). If there are fewer WRs on the field, then it's harder for a rookie to get on the field, but easier to beat out everyone else on the field to get into the top 30 once he gets there. At the end of the day, the only relevant number is the "30" in "top 30". That's what defines how difficult a threshold is to reach, not the number of starters or anything like that.

Second, stats are great, but stats in context are better. You listed the percentage of top-30 finishes by rookies. How do those percentages compare to 2nd year players? 3rd year players? 4th year players? The percentages that any WR, of any experience level, will finish in the top 30 are low. In that sense it's "rare" for a rookie to make a fantasy impact in much the same way that it's "rare" for a 5th year player to make an impact. Still, compared to other seasons, it's not really substantially rarer for a WR to "break out" as a rookie than as a 3rd year player. For instance, here's a study by Dr. Doug Drinen that found out that receivers in the sample were about 66% as likely to "break out" in their 1st year as they were in their 3rd (the magic "breakout" year).

 

[Mikey16x]

Ahhh, forgot about good 'ol Wayne Chrebet. He gets my vote.

 

[Sabertooth]

Wasn't Anquan Boldin considered a project because of his position in college? Also Donald Driver was a total track star...almost an Olympian.

 

[CaptainHook]

Projects are stud athletes that can't play the position coming out of college. guys like jerry rice are the opposite of that.

 

[CaptainHook]

and the point is to identify if these projects can actually succeed presumably for dynasty purposes. the UDFAs will never be on anyones radar during the rookie drafts so its not really worth talking about them IMO. I think what we should be discussing is WRs drafted in the 4th round or better that have either not produced in college whatsoever or played out of position.

How should we value these players who will definitely be drafted in dynasty leagues?

 

[GoBirds]

Tyrone Calico

 

[switz]

Wasn't Anquan Boldin considered a project because of his position in college? Also Donald Driver was a total track star...almost an Olympian.

Both played WR in college.