Ray Lewis (1 Viewer)

[Hoodoo]

Fantasy owners have been talking about Lewis retiring and his possible replacement for the past few years and finally Lewis himself is saying that he doesn't see playing past 37. I know this subject has been beaten to death before, but now given the Ravens did not select a LB in the draft, could that mean they think they already have a replacement for him on the roster? Regardless of what he says, it's obvious he's not as good as he used to be & at 36 you've got to imagine the wear & tear of 15 NFL seasons has got to catch up with him sometime very soon. So, if this, or next year ends up being the year Lewis either goes out long term and/or retires, who are we looking at to have stashed away? Would it be McClain, would it be Jarrett? Could they possible go after a FA once/if that opens up & if so, who is available that fits that role best?

 

[kurtrudder]

It's a really good question, whether its been beaten to death or not, its still a big unknown for a productive situation.

Many owners have been hedging on either McClain, Ellerbe, Gooden, Johnson. It would be good to hear what insight our IDP gurus have on these players, how they are developing & who has the best skill set for the job

 

[Jene Bramel]

Per Ozzie Newsome two weeks ago:

Do you think the ultimate replacements for S Ed Reed and LB Ray Lewis reside on the current roster?

"Those were the weakest positions in the draft. [uCLA's] Rahim Moore was the first safety to go off [the board] in the mid-second round, and I think maybe it was third or fourth round before another safety came off the board; I think it was the kid from Temple. And the inside linebacker position wasn't [strong]. So, first of all, those positions were very weak. But I can say, at both of those positions, we've drafted and signed undrafted free agents over the last three or four years.

"At linebacker, we've got Tavares Gooden, Jason Phillips, [Dannell] Ellerbe and [Jameel] McClain, so we have some people already there that have already played a lot of football. And, at the safety spot, we've got the boxer, Tommy Zbikowski and Haruki [Nakamura], the [judo] black belt. So, we have some depth there already, but those were the weakest positions [in the draft]. If Rahim Moore would've been there, and Torrey would've gotten picked, then we would've taken Rahim Moore with our second-round pick."

Sounds like they're in the market for an ILB, but weren't impressed with the 2011 class at all.I think there's a chance that Lewis' replacement is on the roster, but we've seen Gooden, Ellerbe and McClain as every-down players at one point or another over the past three years and none of them have the all-around linebacker skills to be a future IDP LB1. I'd be very leery of trusting any of the three as a long term IDP option if they eventually climb the depth chart by default. I think the next Baltimore LB IDP value isn't on the roster yet.

 

[massraider]

I have rostered Good before, and am a McClain owner now. I have no expectations for him, and he is an end of the roster type.

What I do think is that whenever Ray Ray's replacement is named, or apparent, that player will be dramatically overrated. We have no idea if that ILB spot for the Ravens is fantasy gold, or if it was just occupied by one of the best LBs ever. I think people will be projecting Ray's numbers to some other guy, and that is dangerous.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I think people will be projecting Ray's numbers to some other guy, and that is dangerous.

This.As a Lewis owner in one dynasty(traded for him to put my squad over the top a couple season's back despite his age), I basically resigned myself to the following: I'm playing him until the wheels fall off and then I'm thanking him for the championship he helped me win and going my merry way as far as "Ravens ILB" is concerned. I've had the Gooden/Ellerbe/McClain owners offering me each of those players over the course of the past couple seasons, and those offers invariably come with the requisite "C'mon! When Ray retires you'll be able to just plug in the next guy and be good to go!" attached. I'm sure you can conclude from the first part of this post what my response has been.Don't fall into that trap. "The Next Lewis"(talking Ray at his peak) not only isn't on the Ravens roster, but he probably isn't even playing college football yet. If Ray is gone come 2012 and the Ravens only have the cast of characters they currently have to choose from, they'll be rotating. None of them are good enough to play every down, so it's unlikely any of them will put up even 75% of his totals.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think people will be projecting Ray's numbers to some other guy, and that is dangerous.

This.

I agree with this sentiment, with an important caveat.Ray Lewis has remained an effective IDP option despite (save a league average 2009 season) a run of beyond horrible tackle opportunity. The next man up may not have Lewis' talent and instincts, but if the opportunity regresses to league average and there are no improvements at the other ILB and/or safety positions, there's still LB2+ value to be found.

 

[johnnyboy8102]

I think he will remain solid. His instincts and preparation help mask any decline in athletic ability.

His age 31-35 production has been outstanding:

76 games (76 starts), 613 tackles (444 solo), 22.5 Stuffs, 15.5 sacks, 9 Interceptions for 140 yards, 38 PD, 8 FR, 9 FF, 2 Defensive TD, 5 Pro Bowls, 3 All Pro Selections, 71 Approximate Value (most in that time for ILB/MLB)

16 Game Season Avg (approximately): 129 tackles (93 solo), 5 stuffs, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 8 PD, 2 FR, 2 FR

I think Lewis is a top-tier LB2 with Low LB1 upside.

 

[houndirish]

I'm in the same camp as Massraider and Finkie. You can't simpy assume that the next guy to fill a perennial all-pro's spot will produce the same or even similar numbers. Lewis isn't fantasy gold simply because he's in a good situation.

Also, for the original poster, Ray Ray's numbers are not in steep decline. He's still been a steady LB1 despite his advanced age.