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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (2 Viewers)

Dr. Octopus said:
I wouldn't say that. There are many RBs more established or who had a higher cost to their team.

I'm not trying to say Jones isn't good or make some grand arguments - I just agreed with Fred that perhaps the breaks should be pumped a little. I see no way anyone should spend a top 10 price tag yet. In a start up that could be a disaster.

With that said - he looks really good and is in a great situation so I'm not suggesting just giving him away either.
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I agree with this - if he's on your roster, you hit the lottery and hey, enjoy. But when you're talking top 10 dynasty RB, I will also factor in things like draft pedigree, team investment, etc.  I'm not saying he won't be ranked there by some, and I'm not saying he doesn't make it there either. But RIGHT NOW, I'm not assigning quite that value to him until he does it another year and/or earns a contract. If I'm in a startup, I'm choosing someone else over him as the 10th RB off the board. RB15... ok, we can talk about that. 

Looking at some recent rankings, here are 14 RB's I'm taking over him in a startup:

Todd Gurley
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Le'Veon Bell
Christian McCaffrey
Kareem Hunt
David Johnson
Nick Chubb
Melvin Gordon III
Joe Mixon
Kerryon Johnson
Sony Michel
Leonard Fournette

Now, maybe someone who picks Michel or Fournette  gets burned. But right now, in a startup, I don't see too many people taking Jones over any of those above guys.

The above said, I'm thrilled I have him where I do (as are the rest of you who own him).  

 
Dr. Dan said:
apparently a guys name carries more weight than his stats

 no one would be doubting top 10 dynasty with the same stats but a sexier name
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The bolded is very true. That said, in a dynasty startup, the sexy name matters in the early rounds. Maybe more than it should. But I've learned that being someone who a team is invested in does matter when you're talking early round startup. We can cherry pick exceptions, of course, but I'll let someone else take Jones at the end of round 2, or wherever RB10 goes.   

 
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kyoun1e said:
GB had a golden opportunity to start the second half. I'd like to see the playcalling again but I remember saying to myself, "why aren't they running the ball?"

It's like McCarthy still doesn't know what he has. If GB had focused more on the run and got Jones going I think they would have had a better shot in this game. A ton of three and outs in the 2nd half. And something is definitely up with A. Rodgers and the passing game. It's either D. Adams or bust.

Why not run more or call screens (that worked like a charm in the first half)?

Next week, MNs D + McCarthy's idiotic playcalling don't make for a good combo. Will be hard for me to start Jones with Mack (vs MIA) or Chubb (@CINC).
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It's possible that they were leaving jones uncovered (or with zone coverage)  out of the backfield early because green bay didn't use him as a primary receiver and he wasn't considered a particularly good receiver to start the season.  Then when green bay killed them 3 times in a drive they adjusted. 

I'm not saying that's what happened, but it's possible.  

All i know is that he had 3 catches for 61 yards in one drive and 2 catches for 2 yards the rest of the way.  

It's easy to point to the coach and say why didn't you use my guy more, but the answer may just be "i did use him more when the defense allowed it, that's how he got 61 receiving yards in one drive".

 
kyoun1e said:
GB had a golden opportunity to start the second half. I'd like to see the playcalling again but I remember saying to myself, "why aren't they running the ball?"

It's like McCarthy still doesn't know what he has. If GB had focused more on the run and got Jones going I think they would have had a better shot in this game. A ton of three and outs in the 2nd half. And something is definitely up with A. Rodgers and the passing game. It's either D. Adams or bust.

Why not run more or call screens (that worked like a charm in the first half)?

Next week, MNs D + McCarthy's idiotic playcalling don't make for a good combo. Will be hard for me to start Jones with Mack (vs MIA) or Chubb (@CINC).
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Jones had 4 carries in the second half in a game they were leading for most of the half.  Why not give it to him more then work some play action? 

 
Gally said:
Jones had 4 carries in the second half in a game they were leading for most of the half.  Why not give it to him more then work some play action? 
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This 10000%. Green Bay was leading almost the entire second half. Makes no sense. 

 
What are the two flaws everyone said were keeping jones off the field? 

Receiving

Pass protection

What happened in the game? 

Early on, Seattle didn't seem to cover Jones as a receiver, he had a monster receiving drive, then nothing afterwards 

Rodgers got sacked 5 times 

Maybe these things are related

 
Dr. Dan said:
I dont think I would have done that trade. I own several 1sts, the first 3 at least right now, and I would gladly give any for Jones. 

He is very likely in the top 10 discussion next season. You must have other RBs of lesser potential you could have traded. 

And even so, a top 10 RB should cost much more than 1 high first rounder. According to FBGs chart Fournette (ranked 10) is worth a high and mid/low first rounder. I see Jones as better than Fournette if this usage continues 
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I guess I don’t see him as top 10 and share similar concerns for future usage that have been posted since this reply. 

And, since you asked, I don’t have RBs of less potential, as my RB corps is Gurley, Gordon, Hunt and Guice (on the IR). It’s only a Keep 13 league, so that certainly affects the conversation as well. 

 
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jwb said:
I agree with this - if he's on your roster, you hit the lottery and hey, enjoy. But when you're talking top 10 dynasty RB, I will also factor in things like draft pedigree, team investment, etc.  I'm not saying he won't be ranked there by some, and I'm not saying he doesn't make it there either. But RIGHT NOW, I'm not assigning quite that value to him until he does it another year and/or earns a contract. If I'm in a startup, I'm choosing someone else over him as the 10th RB off the board. RB15... ok, we can talk about that. 

Looking at some recent rankings, here are 14 RB's I'm taking over him in a startup:

Todd Gurley
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Le'Veon Bell
Christian McCaffrey
Kareem Hunt
David Johnson
Nick Chubb
Melvin Gordon III
Joe Mixon
Kerryon Johnson
Sony Michel
Leonard Fournette

Now, maybe someone who picks Michel or Fournette  gets burned. But right now, in a startup, I don't see too many people taking Jones over any of those above guys.

The above said, I'm thrilled I have him where I do (as are the rest of you who own him).  
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James Conner as well. Some will disagree, but I would take Guice and Cook ahead of him too.

 
Buckna said:
James Conner as well. Some will disagree, but I would take Guice and Cook ahead of him too.
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Yea, those guys too (totally forget them both). Right now, the James Conner level is about where he enters the conversation for me.  

 
bostonfred said:
What are the two flaws everyone said were keeping jones off the field? 

Receiving

Pass protection

What happened in the game? 

Early on, Seattle didn't seem to cover Jones as a receiver, he had a monster receiving drive, then nothing afterwards 

Rodgers got sacked 5 times 

Maybe these things are related
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Agreed on 1st three items.

Noted on the next two.

Rogers sacked 5 times largely because he was trying to turn 3 seconds in  the pocket into 6. He has Aaron Jones standing in the flat waiting for the ball... maybe instead of only looking 40 yds downfield for DaVante...

Jones picked up the blitz on that 57yd bomb. It was noted during the game how his improved pass protection has lead to more playing time.

Dude's a stud. Once they watch that game film... he'll get 7-10 targets ROS.

 
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matuski said:
Rodgers was holding him back last night imo.

Took 3-4 sacks where the check down to Jones was there.
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Yup.

One play I saw Rodgers begrudgingly dump it off to Jones who had a limited gain.

Rodgers was frustrated and angry after the play. Angry that receivers are not getting open downfield I guess.

Rodgers is like a gambler who doesn't see taking what the defense gives you as a small incremental win that can built on,  he sees dumping it to Jones as losing an opportunity for a big play.

The very next play Jones was wide open in the middle and if Rodgers just leads him towards the end zone a little he likely scores, but nope not impressive or challenging enough for Rodgers so he eats the sack instead.

 
Biabreakable said:
Yup.

One play I saw Rodgers begrudgingly dump it off to Jones who had a limited gain.

Rodgers was frustrated and angry after the play. Angry that receivers are not getting open downfield I guess.

Rodgers is like a gambler who doesn't see taking what the defense gives you as a small incremental win that can built on,  he sees dumping it to Jones as losing an opportunity for a big play.

The very next play Jones was wide open in the middle and if Rodgers just leads him towards the end zone a little he likely scores, but nope not impressive or challenging enough for Rodgers so he eats the sack instead.
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Good posting and right on. Earlier this year Brady said if Rodgers was on the Patriots he'd throw for 7000 yards a season. I totally disagree with this because Rodgers would not be willing to play the short passing game the Patriots play. Rodgers wants to be the star, the hero. Checking down to the RB is not a hero move. I think they would win more if he and McCarthy mixed it up more.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Based on your answer I think you see my point. 
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Honestly, I see the "point" you think you are making, but I don't really agree with it.

You brought Cook into it when it had no relevance to the conversation at the time thinking you were making some profound point.

I don't have Cook as a top 10 RB either, yet - but it does make more sense that some one would and it's not because he's a sexier name. The fact that you think experienced dynasty players think like that it a tad bit insulting. You smugly dismiss draft pedigree, but anyone playing this game long enough knows that it matters for what should be obvious reasons. Cook was considered a better prospect by scouts, by pundits, by those in the fantasy community and most importantly in NFL front offices. Albeit in a small sample size due to injury, he showed on the field that the praise heaped upon him in the pre-draft process was warranted. Does that mean he's bust-proof? No, of course it does not. Does that mean he's better than Jones? Not necessarily, but I think he looks like the better all around back when compared to Jones - but I've been wrong before.

If you want to pay top 10 prices for Jones based on a handful of games that's your choice. I just provided another more cautious viewpoint, but I know that doesn't go over too well in a player's thread since the people reading it generally own that player and really just want a circle jerk around that player. There are plenty of reasons to like him - don't get me wrong about that and if you own him you have every right to be excited about it. I was just piggy-backing on what fred posted and just trying to slow down the "top 10 back'" roll a bit. We've seen some Green Bay RBs have success over a short time period and lets face it with a very good o-line, offensive system and Rodgers around it's a great situation for that.

Some one else listed 14 backs they placed ahead of him and I personally would add a few more to that list - and it has nothing to do with their "names".

Anyway I'm not one to come into a player thread and try to crush hope - and I don't dislike Jones' game at all, it's not at all unlikely he keeps the job and runs with it - so I'll bow out now.

 
I know Jimmy Graham was not eating up a lot of targets, but it looks like he is going to be out for a while, if not for the season.  In theory, with the other issues at WR it should make using Jones in both the running and passing game more of a necessity for Green Bay going forward.

And...in the eating crow department, I was one of the many who felt that Jamaal Williams was the guy to own in this backfield.  Dr. Dan and Bojang were pretty spot on with their analysis of the two players, so kudos boys!

 
ahartig said:
Maybe Lev Bell is a packer in 2019
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I dont see it. I've commented before that I could see them bring in a guy like Yeldon. GB has a lot of problems. Coach being at the top. I'm not sure I see them as Leveon Bell away from being a super bowl contender. 

I think Bell stays AFC TBH. 

No one knows what will happen long term. People have named other GB backs that have come and gone. Samkon Gado is at the top of that list. 

One certainly cant argue the statistics Jones has. I am encouraged for this to not be an anomaly based on the fact that he did this for his first 4 games last year. So we have a 12 game sample for him. At what point do we consider his performance legit? 

I bring up other big names because his first 4 games were compared to Cooks first 4 in an article I've posted quite a bit. Many people were locked in on Cook this preseason as a potential top 10, some even mentioned top 5, consideration.

In a start up, no I probably dont take Jones as a top 10 RB, because I can get him later and the potential for top 10 is there. The fact that his ypc is so far ahead of anyone else at the position is very encouraging. 

I appreciate the list given earlier, but I would take Jones over some of those due to situation and injury risk. specifically the bottom 4. if someone offered me any of those 4 (and I'll add Fournette) straight up for Jones I would politely decline. 

 
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If I owned Jones in a dynasty, I'd get all I could out of Jones this season as far as production & look to sell in the offseason with the right deal.

It seems like his value is pretty high. I believe Jones is the perfect candidate for an upgrade, meaning you give Jones+ for an elite player at whatever position you need. Those types of trades rarely backfire.

Jones is a decent RB in a very nice situation (as long as the touches are there), but he's a long way from a sure thing as far as raw ability. I like to hedge those types of players.

 
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ahartig said:
Maybe Lev Bell is a packer in 2019
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I dont see it. I've commented before that I could see them bring in a guy like Yeldon. GB has a lot of problems. Coach being at the top. I'm not sure I see them as Leveon Bell away from being a super bowl contender. 

I think Bell stays AFC TBH. 

No one knows what will happen long term. People have named other GB backs that have come and gone. Samkon Gado is at the top of that list. 

One certainly cant argue the statistics Jones has. I am encouraged for this to not be an anomaly based on the fact that he did this for his first 4 games last year. So we have a 12 game sample for him. At what point do we consider his performance legit? 

I bring up other big names because his first 4 games were compared to Cooks first 4 in an article I've posted quite a bit. Many people were locked in on Cook this preseason as a potential top 10, some even mentioned top 5, consideration.

In a start up, no I probably dont take Jones as a top 10 RB, because I can get him later and the potential for top 10 is there. The fact that his ypc is so far ahead of anyone else at the position is very encouraging. 

I appreciate the list given earlier, but I would take Jones over some of those due to situation and injury risk. specifically the bottom 4

 
Mark Football said:
Earlier this year Brady said if Rodgers was on the Patriots he'd throw for 7000 yards a season. I totally disagree with this because Rodgers would not be willing to play the short passing game the Patriots play. Rodgers wants to be the star, the hero. Checking down to the RB is not a hero move. I think they would win more if he and McCarthy mixed it up more.
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Great comparison. Brady always knows exactly where James White is at... the relief valve is always there.

Maybe Rogers will develop that sixth sense with Jones now that he's on the field more during passing downs. That was maddening to watch last night.

 
Elevencents said:
Because a new coach is going to take the ball out of the best QB in the leagues hands to give it to Aaron Jones? Only if he doesn’t want to keep his job. 
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By that logic, we’d never have heard of Kevin Faulk or James White,

Somehow the best coach in the modern era sees tactical value in “taking the ball out of the hands of one of the best QBs of the century.”

 
Elevencents said:
Because a new coach is going to take the ball out of the best QB in the leagues hands to give it to Aaron Jones? Only if he doesn’t want to keep his job. 
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No, but it's pretty clear they need to significantly drop Rodger's ridiculous workload they have him on now. He has a lingering injury every single year from taking hits.

 
Football Jones said:
If I owned Jones in a dynasty, I'd get all I could out of Jones this season as far as production & look to sell in the offseason with the right deal.

It seems like his value is pretty high. I believe Jones is the perfect candidate for an upgrade, meaning you give Jones+ for an elite player at whatever position you need. Those types of trades rarely backfire.

Jones is a decent RB in a very nice situation (as long as the touches are there), but he's a long way from a sure thing as far as raw ability. I like to hedge those types of players.
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I think we are watching different players. He has burst and gets down field fast, power and can move the pile, he has good rb vision, he turns -3 yard carries into 3 yard carries, he can catch and pass block. The only thing holding him back is Rodgers, who needs to be the hero and the star and wants to throw the ball down field on every play. Sure maybe using him to upgrade to a more proven top commodity might be a good play. But a long way from raw ability? I don't think so. Watch the tape. 

 
Mark Football said:
I think we are watching different players. He has burst and gets down field fast, power and can move the pile, he has good rb vision, he turns -3 yard carries into 3 yard carries, he can catch and pass block. The only thing holding him back is Rodgers, who needs to be the hero and the star and wants to throw the ball down field on every play. Sure maybe using him to upgrade to a more proven top commodity might be a good play. But a long way from raw ability? I don't think so. Watch the tape. 
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I agree. I’ve watched almost every snap of his this year and last year and he is electric. He will get 2-3 extra yards after initial wrapped up tackle almost every time. He can cut on a dime and has major burst and great vision.

I admit I’m probably biased as i own him in my main league and need him badly, but he looks damn good and his situation is insanely favorable. 

 
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Mark Football said:
I think we are watching different players. He has burst and gets down field fast, power and can move the pile, he has good rb vision, he turns -3 yard carries into 3 yard carries, he can catch and pass block. The only thing holding him back is Rodgers, who needs to be the hero and the star and wants to throw the ball down field on every play. Sure maybe using him to upgrade to a more proven top commodity might be a good play. But a long way from raw ability? I don't think so. Watch the tape. 
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The only thing holding Jones back is Rodgers? So playing with the best QB in the league is now a detriment to a RB?

 
Dr. Dan said:
Rodgers decision making. you should read the second part of that. Rodgers has clearly been looking for the homerun and repeatedly passed on check downs
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Yeah I read that part - but I’m thinking the fact the defense probably spends more time worrying about Rodgers and the passing game actually helps Jones (and Williams). And watching on television we don’t really know the dump off pass is always the best decision. I’m thinking maybe Rodgers is a little better equipped than us to determine where to go with the ball.

Would Jones owners prefer to see Rodgers out for the year?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Yeah I read that part - but I’m thinking the fact the defense probably spends more time worrying about Rodgers and the passing game actually helps Jones (and Williams). And watching on television we don’t really know the dump off pass is always the best decision. I’m thinking maybe Rodgers is a little better equipped than us to determine where to go with the ball.

Would Jones owners prefer to see Rodgers out for the year?
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you're right, that Rodgers helps more than he hurts, obviously, but for whatever reason Rodgers is trying to go for the big play every play. I have mo idea why, he used to do this a lot,maybe its because green bay has the most vanilla offensive play calling in the league

 
Dr. Dan said:
you're right, that Rodgers helps more than he hurts, obviously, but for whatever reason Rodgers is trying to go for the big play every play. I have mo idea why, he used to do this a lot,maybe its because green bay has the most vanilla offensive play calling in the league
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Scott Linehan says hello

 
Dr. Octopus said:
The only thing holding Jones back is Rodgers? So playing with the best QB in the league is now a detriment to a RB?
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Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback. And he makes defenses game plan for him. Which helps Jones and gives him room to run and it makes him a top 20 RB. However, Jones also has room to catch because of that. But Rodgers most of the time looks for big chunk plays because he is Aaron Rodgers and he wears the belt. So many times though he ends up taking a sack or throwing it away. If he would take the 5-15 yards he'd get by checking it down, A. He would have less 3rd and long situations and they would have a much more efficient offense and win more games and super bowls. B. And more importantly,  Aaron Jones would be a top 10 fantasy running back and I'd win my league.?

 
Mark Football said:
Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback. And he makes defenses game plan for him. Which helps Jones and gives him room to run and it makes him a top 20 RB. However, Jones also has room to catch because of that. But Rodgers most of the time looks for big chunk plays because he is Aaron Rodgers and he wears the belt. So many times though he ends up taking a sack or throwing it away. If he would take the 5-15 yards he'd get by checking it down, A. He would have less 3rd and long situations and they would have a much more efficient offense and win more games and super bowls. B. And more importantly,  Aaron Jones would be a top 10 fantasy running back and I'd win my league.?
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My favorite is the "Peyton Manning Syndrome" (PMS) that Rogers gets around the goal line.  For example, a couple of weeks ago it was 1st-and-goal at the two.  Play calls?  Three passes.  The 3rd was a 2-yard slant to D. Adams for the score.  My takeaway?  Rogers likes throwing TD passes.  It is way more fun than handing it off for a short rushing TD. 

Anyone who owned Joe Addai (for the Colts) back in the day can sympathize.   Addai could have had 20 TDs in one season in that offense if Peyton hadn't always checked to a 1-yd curl to Dallas Clark.

 
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