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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Football Jones
Footballguy
Jones simply doesn’t have enough of nor the quality of prerequisite traits needed to be a longterm feature back, IMO. Although, slightly bigger, Jones is real similar to Abdullah.
Many people like Williams because he does have a set of traits that COULD help him become a longterm feature back. That said, it remains to be seen if Williams has enough juice. The good news is he’s got close to elite physicality & does everything well.
It’s going to be interesting to see if anyone emerges or if this will end up a FF nightmare.
Many people like Williams because he does have a set of traits that COULD help him become a longterm feature back. That said, it remains to be seen if Williams has enough juice. The good news is he’s got close to elite physicality & does everything well.
It’s going to be interesting to see if anyone emerges or if this will end up a FF nightmare.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Football Jones: Ronald Jones at 205 and Jamaal Williams at 205, perfect size for lead RB’s.
Aaron Jones at 215: too small.
Trolls gotta troll though.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Can’t wait for another @Football Jones “study” thread where no quanitifiable evidence is introduced.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm not sure what you're getting at with RoJo. I've never given my opinion on him in here & won't until all my drafts are done. Secondly, there's HUGE dynamics involved in Williams dropping to 205 & Jones going up to 215. Even at 215, I can tell you I seriously doubt I'll like his prospects any better. Jones seems like he's trying to become something he's not. The chance of that working for him enough to make a considerable difference is slim-to-none & Slim left town. The only thing that looked noticeably bigger were Jones' arms & you couldn't pick a worse muscle group (biceps & triceps) to add mass to. Functionally, it's wasted weight, especially for a RB.
The same holds true for Williams, although, dropping weight makes more sense than Jones gaining weight, but I want to see what it does to Williams' physicality, which is his best trait.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
There's a Jamaal William's thread for Football Jones to go in and talk about how he passes a specific set of requirements that only he knows that show him and only him who is likely to be a lead back. there's no saying how many successes and failures hes had with this fully ambiguous method that he wont share with anyone, but we just need to trust him.
to get back to normal talk, Jones is the best runner on this team hands down. what he has, and what Williams lacks, cant be taught. what Jones lacks can be taught, and sounds like hes been focusing on it. it'll be interesting to see how far hes come this offseason when they put the pads on
to get back to normal talk, Jones is the best runner on this team hands down. what he has, and what Williams lacks, cant be taught. what Jones lacks can be taught, and sounds like hes been focusing on it. it'll be interesting to see how far hes come this offseason when they put the pads on
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
man... Williams got a heck of a lot further away from 220 this offseason whereas Jones got a lot closer. so since Football Jones felt that Jones had less of these ambiguous specific traits that are successful at showing who might have potential to be a starting rb (huh? how does one measure that success rate? a rb could never become a starter but still rate high on this ridiculously secretive scale). But ok back to my point, Jones had less of these secretive traits, and was smaller.
with the flip in weight, it's less necessary for Jones to have those traits, so I imagine Football Jones has adjusted his rankings
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Football Jones
Footballguy
There's no "method". It's called eyeball scouting. I've been very successful as have many other FFers.
We're here to talk football. We can disagree without all the BS. You like Jones as a feature back. I believe he's VASTLY overrated as a longterm feature back prospect.
The only thing we can do now is debate it. At some point, we'll know for sure.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
BTW, the "method" comments are really interesting to me. There seems to be a certain number of posters who are so metric-focused they simply can't grasp the concept of eyeball scouting (which is the heart of ALL scouting). Not just me, but I see other posters who talk about eyeball scouting then someone posts something like "magic formula". LOL. Funny stuff.
I believe the differences each of us might see when eyeball scouting a player is much more valuable than discussing his metrics.
I believe the differences each of us might see when eyeball scouting a player is much more valuable than discussing his metrics.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Williams played last season a few pounds under 215, but his physicality is exceptional.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
confirming why I have your posts blocked in the first place...
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Football Jones
Footballguy
So Jones made himself a little thicker, most noticeably his arms, LOL.
No, this isn't going to magically change him into a tough runner.
Football Jones
Footballguy
You just can't let it go, LOL. The "system" is simply meshing the eyeball scouting evaluation with the concept (which is the smaller you are, the more you need specific high end traits).
confirming why I have your posts blocked in the first place...
I mentioned this in the same thread you quoted.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Seems like one person is making his argument in an informative, albeit opinionated but respectful way, while others are trying to be playground bullies and feel like just by stating their opinions and calling any other opinions dumb (essentially) it will make them so, and lead them to fantasy greatness. Its amazing to me how personally some people take this stuff, ultimately derailing threads with unnecessary piss and vinegar.
If we didnt have different opinions on players, there would not be a Shark Pool. These discussions dont have to feel like a 4th grade kickball game. It only serves to expose posters as ignorant and immature.
If we didnt have different opinions on players, there would not be a Shark Pool. These discussions dont have to feel like a 4th grade kickball game. It only serves to expose posters as ignorant and immature.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
It's easy to come in here at page 16 and make judgments I guess. Not trying to excuse my behavior, but numerous people have tried to have an informative discussion with a particular poster, asking specific questions and all we get is ambiguous answers that make no sense.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Where is the story about Williams dropping weight. I'm not doubting you, I just have not seen it. It would be bizarre if Jones gained weight and Williams lost weight based on trying to match what the other was doing - a potential gift of the magi type situation perhaps?
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
According to some information I learned today (granted, it's old information), Jamaal Williams was closer to 200 pounds than 205. Not that 5 pounds matters, but it can. That's super trim... People said Ty Montgomery wasn't big enough... Jamaal Williams is now smaller than Ty Montgomery when Montgomery took over the lead RB role.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So it's just something you heard? Once again, I'm not trying to doubt anyone but generally stuff like that is out there this time of year. It would seem strange that a power-back like Williams would want to lose all that weight. I can't imagine it will make him terribly faster. I would think the difference in speed would be negligible at those weights - it wasn't like he was fat at 214.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No he wasn't fat at 214. He was told after the season that he needed to add speed to take his game to the next level. That's why I say that Jones has what can't really be taught. Sure, you can train for speed and lose weight or change your form or whatever, but sometimes someone's fast because anatomically speaking, at the muscle fiber and metabolism level, they are just suited for speed more than someone else.
I had heard through someone I know of within the organization. After I saw the tweet referenced above I reached out to a colleague. Said he lost a good amount of weight and they want him to put a little more on before the season, which I would expect him to as they get into a more scheduled weight lifting routine and their meals are more closely monitored/controlled. In the end, I think this is much to do about nothing. I'm more excited about Aaron Jones getting bigger when no one's watching/off-season. I was watching some tape from drills for OTAs... I got #33 and #30 confused/backwards because of their size; Jones looks bigger than Williams (and Ty Montgomery looked pretty good, without pads running drills FWIW. He looks more natural as a RB finally... and word is he's going to have a big role in the offense... IMO it'll be as a pass catcher filling a Sproles type role. As long as he can stay healthy)
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Google is turning up nothing for me on this topic, though. Would be a really weird move for him, as I thought pass blocking and gaining those tough yards after contact were going to be critical to JW's success over Jones/Montgomery in this system. I don't think losing 10-15 lbs is really going to help him. I would've preferred to see him gain 5-10 lbs. Rodgers will gain the big yards, but he needs someone to convert those 3rd and shorts and to keep him clean in the pocket.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
As I said, I don't think this is much of an issue. What a guy weighs in June does nothing for me in September. I'd fully expect him to be playing at 210-220. These guys can probably put on/take off 5-8 pounds a month
Google is turning up nothing for me on this topic, though. Would be a really weird move for him, as I thought pass blocking and gaining those tough yards after contact were going to be critical to JW's success over Jones/Montgomery in this system. I don't think losing 10-15 lbs is really going to help him. I would've preferred to see him gain 5-10 lbs. Rodgers will gain the big yards, but he needs someone to convert those 3rd and shorts and to keep him clean in the pocket.
I am excited about Jones coming in a bit more beefed up because he could use it. Hopefully he keeps it on and is just as fast as he was last year
Noah Davis
Footballguy
Athletic profiles:
I'm a Williams owner but Jones is clearly the superior athlete with impressive burst scores in vertical and broad jump.
I'm a Williams owner but Jones is clearly the superior athlete with impressive burst scores in vertical and broad jump.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
If that's all it took then Bishop Sankey would be starting somewhere and Detroit wouldn't have drafted Kerryon to replace Abdullah. And of course McKinnon would already be ruling the world.
nirad3
Footballguy
Here we go with the "scouting" again. Nice attempt at making fantasy football less nerdy. 
As for Jones - and I already had the thread
'ed, so I may have already said this - I watched the guy single-handedly rip apart what was a pretty good UT Longhorn run D while he was at UTEP. He destroyed them... with not much else around him. Granted he had what ended up being a potential studly OL in Will Hernandez but everything else around him was second/third-rate.
Interesting battle here, I wouldn't be shocked if no one emerges.
As for Jones - and I already had the thread
'ed, so I may have already said this - I watched the guy single-handedly rip apart what was a pretty good UT Longhorn run D while he was at UTEP. He destroyed them... with not much else around him. Granted he had what ended up being a potential studly OL in Will Hernandez but everything else around him was second/third-rate. Interesting battle here, I wouldn't be shocked if no one emerges.
I'm curious how people are handling this call in startups. Jones and Williams are ranked pretty close together in most dynasty consensus rankings as far as I can tell (Jones is 13 spots ahead of Williams at DLF and 5 spots ahead at PFF; Williams is 2 spots ahead at FBG). Their ADPs (according to DLF) are around 83rd overall for Jones and around 110th overall for Williams. So, if you want both you may need to spend two relatively close picks on them.
I got both in a recent startup a little later than their ADP, mainly because I felt they were the best values on the board (I picked Jones first because I'm slightly higher on him). I wish I had the conviction on one over the other that other folks in the thread do but I don't see too much separating them, and would want both, which is a somewhat significant startup investment.
I got both in a recent startup a little later than their ADP, mainly because I felt they were the best values on the board (I picked Jones first because I'm slightly higher on him). I wish I had the conviction on one over the other that other folks in the thread do but I don't see too much separating them, and would want both, which is a somewhat significant startup investment.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Preach on. You tell them there's no specific blueprint other than meshing eyeball scouting with a concept, but they keep repeating the same things about it being an ambiguous "method". It's frustrating, but you have to expect some of that in an open forum. There's always a few people who simply can't take an opposing view & debate it reasonably. It's the one thing that's keeping the SP from being great.ChuckLiddell said:
Anyway, as far as this particular topic, in short, I don't believe Jones is dynamic enough for his size (on-field speed/quickness/lateral agility/escapability, etc.). That's the bottom line. He's also not very physical. A few forced extra pounds hoping to become more physical with much of the added weight in the wrong place (like his arms) isn't going to help. It certainly isn't going to make Jones more dynamic, probably less so.
I mentioned this during the 2017 season, but not everyone is drafted by an NFL team to be a feature back. I think that's an underrated premise when scouting RBs in FF. Ideally, we want to acquire RBs who have the potential to be longterm feature backs in our dynasty leagues (which is the format I'm mostly alluding to). That said, I'm not pounding the table for Williams. Although he's got tremendous physicality & does everything well, it's debatable if Williams has enough juice. I initially liked his ADP when he came out & in the late 2nd/early 3rd where you could typically get him, Williams has exceeded expectations. That's all you can ask for.
Williams has a much better chance than Jones of being a longterm feature back, IMO, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be more valuable in the short-term. Really interesting situation. It's one of the more polarizing position battles of 2018, especially with Ty mixed in.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
mcintyre1
Footballguy
So... why do we seem to be taking Dr Dan and Bojang at face value for claiming that Jamaal Williams is cutting weight and getting significantly lighter than his playing weight last season with zero evidence provided to support that?
All that aside, I'd much rather have Williams in this backfield. Jones is a better outside runner, but from what I've watched he has very little patience as an inside runner and doesn't wait for his blocks to develop. He then panics that the hole isn't there and tries to break outside. That works sometimes, but other times he gets tackled for no gain or a short loss. Williams, on the other hand, is both a more physical and more patient runner and takes what the play is designed to get at a minimum. He'll wait for the blocks to get you 3 yards on a play that didn't break open, rather than gambling for the 10-15 to the outside that will leave you behind the sticks a good portion of the time. Based on usage last season, I think the Packers appreciate that reliability more than what Jones offers in terms of chunk yardage.
That's not to say that I see Jones riding the bench all season or something, but Jones seems to be much more valued by fantasy players and I'm going to take the cheaper Williams every time.
All that aside, I'd much rather have Williams in this backfield. Jones is a better outside runner, but from what I've watched he has very little patience as an inside runner and doesn't wait for his blocks to develop. He then panics that the hole isn't there and tries to break outside. That works sometimes, but other times he gets tackled for no gain or a short loss. Williams, on the other hand, is both a more physical and more patient runner and takes what the play is designed to get at a minimum. He'll wait for the blocks to get you 3 yards on a play that didn't break open, rather than gambling for the 10-15 to the outside that will leave you behind the sticks a good portion of the time. Based on usage last season, I think the Packers appreciate that reliability more than what Jones offers in terms of chunk yardage.
That's not to say that I see Jones riding the bench all season or something, but Jones seems to be much more valued by fantasy players and I'm going to take the cheaper Williams every time.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
How do you expect him to get more explosive? Keep the same weight and get his knees higher? I’ll keep going back to it every time... he had one run over 15 yards. It is absolutely a putrid stat. The only back I could go back and find who did something that awful their rookie season was Lev Bell and he dropped from >240lbs to ~225lbs. Williams was listed at 212lbs going into last season and has said this offseason the staff and himself want him to be more explosive. You explain to me how he does that without cutting.
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I do think it’s funny that people are grandly stating how great Williams is between the tackles on 2 and 3 yard runs like he’s some bruiser. He was 212 and slow. Now by all accounts both Jones and Montgomery are bigger than him but he’s supposed to be the durable one? I’m just a little confused on that point being made.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Very good point.
Again, I’m not pounding the table for Williams (far from it), but if Jones’ ADP is indeed higher (better), that’s all the more reason to favor Williams, IMO (especially in dynasty leagues).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
you don't have to if you don't want insider information... I always thought that was the best thing about the shark pool. to each their own I guess
I couldn't care less if you believe me or not. I know the person i speak to is closer connected than Google to the information I receive. especially when he may or may not be one who is gathering this information personally
I find great posters here to be very helpful. I have an extensive education in a certain field that has awarded me knowledge on injuries and recovery that i try to share to pay those back who help me. the shark pool is only as good as it's free contributors. this has also awarded me some connections within (now only) 2 organizations that I get some information here and there and pass it along. if people dont like what I have to say, that's their issue.
regarding williams' weight... I'll say for the 4th time, hes expected to be up come July so this is a big deal about nothing. once we see if Williams is running faster or still looks like hes wearing cement shoes then we will know if hes improved.
this is like the chubb thread... there are people who no matter what you say will think Williams is better and that's it. guess we will find out in 2 months. or we can debate it with no new information in the meantime. I'll pass and just provide whatever new information that comes my way.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I'm confused by the thought Williams is trying to lose weight only to be back up to his normal weight as soon as July. It doesn't make any sense.
That would be an odd way for somebody to try to get more athletic. Also, for a RB like built like Williams as well as his skill set, cutting a fair amount of weight is a poor idea, IMO. I could see it if he was carrying some extra weight, but that's not the case.
I believe Williams' best chance at a longterm feature back gig is to keep his physicality. He's borderline on being dynamic enough, but Williams does everything well & at least has a shot at a featured role as an all-around RB. It's EXTREMELY unlikely getting down to 205 or whatever is going to help him become a feature back. In fact, it probably would have the exact opposite effect.
That would be an odd way for somebody to try to get more athletic. Also, for a RB like built like Williams as well as his skill set, cutting a fair amount of weight is a poor idea, IMO. I could see it if he was carrying some extra weight, but that's not the case.
I believe Williams' best chance at a longterm feature back gig is to keep his physicality. He's borderline on being dynamic enough, but Williams does everything well & at least has a shot at a featured role as an all-around RB. It's EXTREMELY unlikely getting down to 205 or whatever is going to help him become a feature back. In fact, it probably would have the exact opposite effect.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is it that easy to add 15 pounds of healthy weight in two months? Training camp generally sees players dropping weight in the heat and with tough workouts.you don't have to if you don't want insider information... I always thought that was the best thing about the shark pool. to each their own I guess
I couldn't care less if you believe me or not. I know the person i speak to is closer connected than Google to the information I receive. especially when he may or may not be one who is gathering this information personally
I find great posters here to be very helpful. I have an extensive education in a certain field that has awarded me knowledge on injuries and recovery that i try to share to pay those back who help me. the shark pool is only as good as it's free contributors. this has also awarded me some connections within (now only) 2 organizations that I get some information here and there and pass it along. if people dont like what I have to say, that's their issue.
regarding williams' weight... I'll say for the 4th time, hes expected to be up come July so this is a big deal about nothing. once we see if Williams is running faster or still looks like hes wearing cement shoes then we will know if hes improved.
this is like the chubb thread... there are people who no matter what you say will think Williams is better and that's it. guess we will find out in 2 months. or we can debate it with no new information in the meantime. I'll pass and just provide whatever new information that comes my way.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'd say yes. considering they should have been working out all offseason. if they're hanging with Eddie lacy since January, yeah probably not. if you show up fat, harder take that off and get strong. if you show up trim, a few pounds of muscle and added fat are easy.
I'm already a month old with whatever my information is so I don't see it relevant any longer. honestly. the only reason I mentioned it was for the individuals who said last year Jones was too small.
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Noah Davis
Footballguy
I think you may have misunderstood me. Aaron Jones being a superior athlete doesn't mean he is the better football player, it is jut one input. As a frame of reference Antonio Brown was a poor metrics guy - but a vastly superior technique and football IQ.
For me...I look at metrics as a tie breaker when I have guys very closely rated in a draft class. Even then I don't always go with the metric guy. As an example I traded the world to move to 1.02 with every intent to take Nick Chubb, but when it came down to me being on the clock I pulled the trigger on Derrius Guice's. I just felt his was situation better over the next 4 years and it is a RealitySportsOnline league. .
No. Not a chance in hell. Under the best of conditions a male will be lucky to add one pound of muscle per week. And it may sound counter intuitive but exercise like training camp will make that one pound absolutely impossible. Doing any amount of cardio will hamper muscle gain, much less something rigorous like training camp. Under conditions like that, you're actually more likely to burn muscle than fat.
And anecdotally as a gym rat, I've only ever seen people put on anything close to one pound per week when they're just starting out and have a lot of ground to gain or when they used to lift and quit for a long time.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
he doesn't need to put only muscle on if hes too light. I highly doubt the weight he allegedly (to make everyone happy) took off was muscle
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But for fantasy purposes I believe it was FBG that did an analysis and the best RB fantasy seasons were NOT tied to stud QB play. For whatever reasons, above average but not stud-like numbers from the QB were more conducive to RB points. That being said, there are plenty of RB points to be had in GB - especially after last year's usage where one guy consistently got 80%+ of the RB snaps.
From the article: "And with Ty Montgomery returning from an injured wrist in 2018, Williams knows his place on the depth chart can be taken away if he doesn't continue to get better."
Which implies Williams is at the top of the depth chart.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
sure, for the average Joe. for an NFL player 0% body fat is unhealthy. if you've got 40% body fat and you're putting on fat. sure that's still unhealthy. but he can go from 10 to 14% body fat and still be healthy.
are we saying he was unhealthy before he allegedly dropped weight?
We're not talking about his overall health. He was talking about adding "healthy weight." Sure, he can add fat and maintain a healthy overall weight, but adding fat is not adding healthy weight.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
we've strayed way too far off the reservation here. we aren't even talking about Aaron Jones. instead we are splitting hairs over words.
