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RB Alexander Mattison, MIA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter kittenmittens
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Tau837
Footballguy
You may be right, but this made me curious enough to look. FWIW over the past 4 seasons, an average of 6 RBs have caught at least 4 TDs in the regular season. 11 RBs did it in 2018, and I didn't look any further back than that. It's not common nowadays.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The Lions had possibly the best goaline back in the league and Swift still got plenty of redzone work and scored plenty of TDs when healthy, enough to be a top 7 overall fantasy asset before he got hurt one too many times.
It seems fairly clear the Lions want to give that "Swift" role a lot of work, but Swift couldn't handle it and stay healthy, so they moved on from him to try and find someone that could. When they weren't babying him because they were scared of him always being hurt, Swift got plenty of work to be a top 5 running back.
It seems fairly clear the Lions want to give that "Swift" role a lot of work, but Swift couldn't handle it and stay healthy, so they moved on from him to try and find someone that could. When they weren't babying him because they were scared of him always being hurt, Swift got plenty of work to be a top 5 running back.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Swift had 23 rushing attempts / 5 tds and 13 targets / 2 tds inside the red zone in 2022. That’s more rushing tds than I expected, but paled in comparison to Williams’ 14.
ZWK
Footballguy
Mattison seems like a JAG, the kind of back that a team has as its lead RB when they aren't prioritizing the position and who could easily get replaced a year later.
For his career he has
-0.14 RYOE/att, which ranks 29/57 among RBs with 300+ total carries 2019-2022
-0.13 EPA/att, which ranks 48/57 among RBs with 300+ total carries 2019-2022
72.1 PFF rushing grade, which in a single season would've ranked about 37/63 among RBs with enough carries
(That PFF grade is the average of his 4 single-season grades, weighted by the number of carries each season. His single season grades have bounced around a lot, which happens with small sample sizes. 37 is the average of where that 72.1 grade would've ranked in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.)
And his 2 year, $7M contract falls in this range among this year's free agent RBs in amount per year:
$4M/yr Jamaal Williams NO
$3.75M/yr Samaje Perine DEN
$3.5M/yr Alexander Mattison MIN
$3M/yr Jeff Wilson MIA
$2.8M/yr Raheem Mostert MIA
$2.75M/yr Devin Singletary HOU
I think his workload this year is pretty up-in-the-air, and depends mainly on how well McBride, Chandler, and Nwangwu play. It could be that those guys are the sort of day 3 picks who don't really belong on an NFL field (except maybe on special teams), in which case Mattison could dominate snaps & touches and have a very nice fantasy season. Or it could be that McBride is the best runner on the team and Chandler is the best receiving back, which would shrink Mattison's snaps down into a rotational role in a big ol' committee. Or anything in between.
For his career he has
-0.14 RYOE/att, which ranks 29/57 among RBs with 300+ total carries 2019-2022
-0.13 EPA/att, which ranks 48/57 among RBs with 300+ total carries 2019-2022
72.1 PFF rushing grade, which in a single season would've ranked about 37/63 among RBs with enough carries
(That PFF grade is the average of his 4 single-season grades, weighted by the number of carries each season. His single season grades have bounced around a lot, which happens with small sample sizes. 37 is the average of where that 72.1 grade would've ranked in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.)
And his 2 year, $7M contract falls in this range among this year's free agent RBs in amount per year:
$4M/yr Jamaal Williams NO
$3.75M/yr Samaje Perine DEN
$3.5M/yr Alexander Mattison MIN
$3M/yr Jeff Wilson MIA
$2.8M/yr Raheem Mostert MIA
$2.75M/yr Devin Singletary HOU
I think his workload this year is pretty up-in-the-air, and depends mainly on how well McBride, Chandler, and Nwangwu play. It could be that those guys are the sort of day 3 picks who don't really belong on an NFL field (except maybe on special teams), in which case Mattison could dominate snaps & touches and have a very nice fantasy season. Or it could be that McBride is the best runner on the team and Chandler is the best receiving back, which would shrink Mattison's snaps down into a rotational role in a big ol' committee. Or anything in between.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Mirrors my thinking. Spent a lot of time mired in the "running back dead zone" podcast stuff in redraft in the past 2 years.
Opportunity creates the impression of value. Lack of elite talent creates ability to be overtaken by other talented backs. Nwangwu, Chandler or McBride could each carve out roles or overtake if they've really taken steps to advance their games. I didn't study McBride because of how low in the class he was ranked but people are in on him. But the idea that a guy they just drafted is "who they thought they were getting" as opposed to guys they know they like and kept around, know the system, etc. and have a few years of learning.
And on top of that, there's some FA RBs out there still that would probably be capable of pushing any of these guys for either short yardage or passing down work.
I have nothing against Mattison- just feel like he's not the type of guy I want to invest in unless it's for really cheap. The production could well be there but it could also vanish with one ankle sprain.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I could see that yardage and anywhere between 5-12 TD.
It’s a high-po offense, and I could see Mattison getting a bunch of GL on DPI in the end zone.
TDs are notoriously difficult to predict. Still trying to decide if AM is a sell or a hold.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Good post. There’s a Pacheco parallel here.
Given the choice I’d take AM as I expect him to be used more in the receiving game & I only play PPR.
That, and the chiefs seem to like McKinnon in the RZ/GL.
That could change this year of course, but the safe bet would be AM > Pacheco.
Tau837
Footballguy
Last year their RB carries were distributed like this:
Cook 264
Mattison 74
Nwangwu 9
Chandler 6
Ham (FB) 4
And their RB targets were distributed like this:
Cook 56
Mattison 18
Ham (FB) 12
Nwangwu 2
Chandler 0
It would be pretty surprising to me if Chandler or Nwangwu, who combined for 17 opportunities last season, pose any real threat to Mattison in 2023.
McBride is obviously more of an unknown at the NFL level, but I assume he was drafted at 222 as the 16th RB selected for good reasons.
I really don't see any credible threats right now to Mattison getting a workload in 2023 similar to Cook's in 2022 -- 15.5 carries and 3.3 targets per game. Those other guys can split up the 109 opportunities Mattison, Nwangwu, and Chandler had last season.
If the question is how the Vikings will use Mattison in 2023, the obvious answer is they will use him like they used Cook, assuming Mattison stays healthy. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right answer. And any RB getting nearly 19 opportunities per game in today's NFL should be a strong fantasy RB.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
6 RBs doing it per year doesn’t seem like such a deterrent for Gibbs, but sure it’s not a floor or anything when I say he could. I guess it’s safer to project 3 though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t either, unless the Vikings get even more pass happy. That’s about what I projected for him. I had the targets slightly higher actually.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Michael Turner-esque once he left SD for Atl. Mattison has been a stud when filling in for the potato chip D. Cook. I'd expect more passing to the Wrs and more no-nonsense pure running from Mattison he's a stud, he might not get the receiving yards that Johnny Injury got, but he's damn good as a runner.
People doubt I. Pacheco too, he's about to put together a 1300/13 TD season. Pretty much the same as Mattison IMO. Studly 2-3 RB.
People doubt I. Pacheco too, he's about to put together a 1300/13 TD season. Pretty much the same as Mattison IMO. Studly 2-3 RB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Certainly both have the upside for it.
Pacheco seems a little less likely to get those lofty TD totals but it’s on the spectacular of potential outcomes.
I’m skeptical Mattison sniffs 13 as well.
It’s just a lot.
The Cowboys seemed very much done with Zeke and moving on. There are fans now discussing him coming back since the market didn't offer hope for him.
Mattison and Cook seems different.
All talk and conjecture and rumors and gut calls and....it seems like one organization is sure and the other is not.
Mattison and Cook seems different.
All talk and conjecture and rumors and gut calls and....it seems like one organization is sure and the other is not.
The Boys were done with Zeke months ago. Wished him well, all the usual. I "buy" that they're rolling with Pollard.
Cook wasn't released all that long ago and is still communicating with the team often. It's muddy.
think there's a chance Zeke is back w/ Dallas, Jones loves him and may give him a little more than market value, which frankly isn't much, to be the goal line guy/backup. I could see him getting like 500 yards and 8 or 9 Tds. Or may say not worth it and retire. Agree Cook situation is unclear, still not signed maybe he waits for an injury, suppose Vikes could take him back if cheap enough and he can't get another deal for more elsewhere.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Something to monitor, with Kene Nwangwu also missing the last two practices with an undisclosed injury.
goose_egged
Footballguy
Hopefully he's back at practice soon. Bad time for him to lose momentum and open the door for Chandler and McBride to get more reps and maybe turn the staff's heads.
satch
Footballguy
I’ve seen some knock Mattison for his big games coming against weak defenses. Seems fair on the surface, though doing so implies the opposite is true for the RBs ranked around him.
Sure, the elite RBs can find success against tougher defenses, but even they sometimes struggle, accruing most of their fantasy production against the weaker defenses. All of this is perfectly logical. For the most part, RBs do much better against weaker defenses than they do against tougher defenses. Why we’re pretending this is a Mattison thing I don’t quite understand. Are we expecting Stevenson and Etienne to light up every defense they face?
Nobody is claiming Mattison is elite. But he appears to be good enough to dominate weaker defenses and seems to have a workhorse role. This means he should do about what is expected based on strength of defense, and this is great news, as his strength of schedule is among the easiest for all RBs.
Sure, the elite RBs can find success against tougher defenses, but even they sometimes struggle, accruing most of their fantasy production against the weaker defenses. All of this is perfectly logical. For the most part, RBs do much better against weaker defenses than they do against tougher defenses. Why we’re pretending this is a Mattison thing I don’t quite understand. Are we expecting Stevenson and Etienne to light up every defense they face?
Nobody is claiming Mattison is elite. But he appears to be good enough to dominate weaker defenses and seems to have a workhorse role. This means he should do about what is expected based on strength of defense, and this is great news, as his strength of schedule is among the easiest for all RBs.
Saquon Barkley was basically that way last year, feasting on bad defenses, and hopefully getting in the endzone against good ones.
I've got Mattison RB17, and he's an ideal target if you punt RB a bit.
rockaction
Footballguy
Never sold on this guy. Not sold now. If he does anything, it'll be based on pure volume. He's not that great of a runner.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Agree. He was a great value late in drafts as the handcuff because that old grumpy Vikings coach just wanted to feed one back 25 touches every game. He's gone and the price has greatly increased. Now is the time to pivot to Chandler IMO.
rockaction
Footballguy
There's no more grumpy old coach and an analytics-based GM and staff now. They'll be throwing the ball more, especially because (and I can hear the gasps when I say this) Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback. Not league average, but better than that. They have top receivers and a top TE. They'll be throwing the ball. A lot. Therefore, I don't see Chandler as a real value play, and Mattison takes a hit.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
All the more reason to like Chandler. His ADP is like round 19 aka undrafted in most leagues. I think that obviously changes quite a bit in the next week or 2 but I like the chances he is on the field to catch passes more than Mattison or just outplays him or what happens if Mattison gets hurt. No real loss if it doesn't pan out.
need2know
Footballguy
Chester Taylor. Wow. That's a good one
Chaka
Footballguy
Volume play baby!!!
need2know
Footballguy
We been playing a long time brotha
satch
Footballguy
The Vikings seem sold on him and they know him a lot better than we do. Most who draft him couldn’t care less if he’s a great runner. Mattison owners will be perfectly happy if he’s an RB2 based on pure volume. Might even have some RB1 weeks. An average runner in a great situation can be more valuable fantasy-wise than a great runner in a bad situation.
rockaction
Footballguy
Never said that. In fact, I specifically allowed for volume. That said, if one isn't very good, one is a heartbeat from getting replaced at RB in the NFL. The best way to ensure consistent volume is to be very good and healthy. Even then, you're subject to coaching whims, but I prefer good running backs to average-to-bad ones, all other things constant. (They're never constant, but you know what I'm saying.)
There are other guys in the range he's being drafted that I prefer.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In my opinion Chester Taylor was a better RB than Mattison is. Maybe not by a lot but I think more elusive and a better recieving option for sure. He was actually very good on screen passes and just well rounded overall RB.
I agree with your point though that with enough opportunity Mattison should be worth starting in fantasy football.
While Chandler is cheeper than Mattison I dont really see him as a threat to time share with him. I wish I did.
satch
Footballguy
You may prefer other RBs in the Mattison tier, but none of them are great runners either. If they were, they’d be going in the 2nd round along with Nick Chubb. In the range Mattison is going, role/volume is the most important factor.
Chaka
Footballguy
Sounds close enough to be right but I think Mattison is the better receiver. Although I doubt Mattison ends up with a 10 year career.
They're both replacement level guys.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Interesting. What makes you think Mattison is a better recieving option than Chester Taylor was?
Not that it really matters since Taylor is retired. But maybe my opinion of Mattison is too negative.
When comparing them Chester Taylor fits better the style of RB I prefer, but there are plenty of very good RB who dont exactly fit that profile yet win in other ways. I acknowlege that.
Chaka
Footballguy
Not much honestly. I think 7.8 vs 7.5 y/r isn't a huge difference and a 75% vs an 83% catch rate is a little more significant.
But, neither were/are exceptional receivers out of the backfield.
rockaction
Footballguy
Rachaad White is a better runner, has even more opportunity for volume, and can be had two spots earlier than Mattison. Sign me up!
Javonte WIlliams is going ten spots later than Mattison and has similar opportunity for volume. Sign me up!
-jb-
Footballguy
Whizzinator ftw
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not my intent to quibble here about this as it doesn't really matter, but since we are going down memory lane here, I wondered if my memory of Chester Taylor might be inaccurate? Certainly possible as this was a long time ago. Also possible that my impression of him being a good receiver might be off due to comparing him to Adrian Peterson at that time, who he was clearly better than in this category but thats not saying much.
Now as far as comparing his career yards per reception and catch rate to Mattison. I don't think thats apples to apples because that includes Taylors waning seasons where he became a journeyman and in decline the last 2 years of his career while all of Mattisons numbers have been from his prime.
These things can be affected by QB play as well and Taylor had Kyle Boller, Tarvaris Jackson, 37 year old Brad Johnson on his 2nd stint with the Vikings after being let go by the Bucs, Gus Frerotte and one season with Brett Favre before he fell apart. Mattison has had Kirk Cousins who I think is clearly better than all of those QB except for 2009 Favre.
Also the NFL has changed since then. Much more passing now than 20 years ago and more passing to RBs than there used to be.
Cheater Taylor had 4 seasons where he had 40 some receptions which is pretty good for back then. It not exceptional like the number of receptions Marshall Faulk, Brian Westbrook, Tiki Barber and so on were having, but it was above average for those days.
In Chester Taylors lone season as a starter he had 1500 yards from scrimmage, which is pretty good even today. He also had 1100 yards as the back up to Peterson in Petersons rookie season. A good chunk of that because of his 45 receptions that year.
From 2007 to 2009 (the years I'm most likely remembering) he had no less than 8.8 yards per reception. He did have 2 other seasons prior to that, one with Baltimore where he had about 7 yards per reception on 40ish catches each of those years. If you average those 5 seasons of him catching the ball a fair number of times he averaged 8.1 yards per reception.
I don't know. You made me question if my memory might be playing tricks on me or not, but after looking it over I would say the numbers show he was a pretty good receiver for a RB. Not exceptional as you say but clearly above average.
How many receptions do you think Mattison will have this season? His high is 32 so far. With an extra possible game and team that throws the ball a lot as well as a better QB than Taylor had most of his career?
I think 40 is in the realm of possibility.
Will Mattison approach 400 receiving yards? Taylor was very close to that in 2 different seasons. That I am less confident in.
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satch
Footballguy
I’m interested to hear what led you to believe Rachaad White is a better runner than Mattison.
Among the 44 RBs with 100 or more carries in 2022, Rachaad White ranked:
38th in yards per carry (3.8 YPC)
33rd in EPA per rush (-0.11)
42nd in rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.6%)
43rd in yards created after contact per carry (2.29)
(https://www.joebucsfan.com/2023/04/advanced-stats-not-kind-to-rachaad-white/)
In terms of expected volume, I’d say it’s a wash between White and Mattison, though Mattison’s situation is much, much, better, as TB is likely going to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL. While Minnesota is one if the best.
Javonte is appealing, but there are post-ACL concerns and Perine is more of a threat to Javonte’s workload than anyone Mattison’s contending with. Sean Payton has never featured one RB like the Vikings have, and Javonte has never been a featured back.
