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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (1 Viewer)

I looked into RBs that scored a lot of fantasy points on limited touches. Specifically, players that scored over 200 fantasy points in 0 ppr leagues that had 225 or fewer touches. Since the league merger in 1970, there have only been 5 other RBs to do that besides Kamara.

Lionel James 202 fantasy points in 1985 . . . 40 fantasy points in 1986.
James Brooks 206 fantasy points in 1988 . . . 209 fantasy points in 1989.
Ickey Woods 217 fantasy points in 1988 . . . 21 fantasy points in 1989.
Brandon Jacobs 203 fantasy points in 2008 . . . 138 fantasy points in 2009.
Maurice Jones Drew 228 fantasy points in 2006 . . . 172 fantasy points in 2007.

How these guys did the year after doesn't bother me as much as the fact that not many players have accomplished such a feat . . . and the players themselves that did aren't really big names at the RB position.

Expanding the data set to include players with 250 or fewer touches, that's happened 19 times since 1970 and contains a few more recognizable names (Tony Dorsett, Herschel Walker, Ricky Watters, Jamaal Charles, Brian Westbrook). Still, not many players that became long time fantasy bellcow RBs.

It will be interesting to see what Kamara does this year, as he was so efficient last year that he is almost destined to see a dip in his performance levels. Maybe he can trade efficiency for a bigger workload, but I am starting to think that Kamara is overvalued this year.
 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I looked into RBs that scored a lot of fantasy points on limited touches. Specifically, players that scored over 200 fantasy points in 0 ppr leagues that had 225 or fewer touches. Since the league merger in 1970, there have only been 5 other RBs to do that besides Kamara.

Lionel James 202 fantasy points in 1985 . . . 40 fantasy points in 1986.
James Brooks 206 fantasy points in 1988 . . . 209 fantasy points in 1989.
Ickey Woods 217 fantasy points in 1988 . . . 21 fantasy points in 1989.
Brandon Jacobs 203 fantasy points in 2008 . . . 138 fantasy points in 2009.
Maurice Jones Drew 228 fantasy points in 2006 . . . 172 fantasy points in 2007.

How these guys did the year after doesn't bother me as much as the fact that not many players have accomplished such a feat . . . and the players themselves that did aren't really big names at the RB position.

Expanding the data set to include players with 250 or fewer touches, that's happened 19 times since 1970 and contains a few more recognizable names (Tony Dorsett, Herschel Walker, Ricky Watters, Jamaal Charles, Brian Westbrook). Still, not many players that became long time fantasy bellcow RBs.

It will be interesting to see what Kamara does this year, as he was so efficient last year that he is almost destined to see a dip in his performance levels. Maybe he can trade efficiency for a bigger workload, but I am starting to think that Kamara is overvalued this year.
 
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In 0 ppr, I think he might be over valued, but in PPR, solid gold.

 
Ickey Shuffle tore his ACL after his rookie season, this was the late 80's so torn ACL's were generally the kiss of death back then. Jacobs was the heir to Tiki when he retired but succumbed to recurring knee injuries. MJD should need no explanation, super stud for multiple years but he split time in his early years with Fragile Freddie. Probably a good comparison to Kamara's situation if NO continues to use Ingram this year like last year after his suspension is up.

 
Buckna said:
Ickey Shuffle tore his ACL after his rookie season, this was the late 80's so torn ACL's were generally the kiss of death back then. Jacobs was the heir to Tiki when he retired but succumbed to recurring knee injuries. MJD should need no explanation, super stud for multiple years but he split time in his early years with Fragile Freddie. Probably a good comparison to Kamara's situation if NO continues to use Ingram this year like last year after his suspension is up.
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Yeah, the sample size is too small and dated to mean anything. Kamara's efficiency is likely to drop, but it absolutely speaks to his ability. OBJ was never going to average a TD a game, but that he did it as a rookie wasn't used against him the way Kamara's efficiency often is. 

 
The floor in ppr for me makes him somewhat bust proof. There’s no reason to think in that offense he won’t have 75-85 for 700-850 through the air. It would take a huge step back in rushing efficiency and/or a drop in volume combined with his touchdown totals being half of what they were last year for him to not crack low end rb1 numbers. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Yeah, the sample size is too small and dated to mean anything. Kamara's efficiency is likely to drop, but it absolutely speaks to his ability. OBJ was never going to average a TD a game, but that he did it as a rookie wasn't used against him the way Kamara's efficiency often is. 
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It was his 2nd year. A lot of people were a bit cool on OBJ going into year 2. I remember getting him with the last pick of the 1st and that was a good value. He had haters.

 
I think....wait for it.....

He is gonna finish as RB1 (moreso in my league that gives bonuses for big plays - but in PPR in general) barring any missed time. The first 4 games he will be a top 5 back simply due to volume with Ingram out. Now with a full year of fine tuning and an entire offseason under their belt I think Payton and the Saints know exactly how to use AK and you know they have expanded the playbook to make use of him. There’s certainly no reason to think he will get LESS touches so even though he may be less efficient with the touches he gets he has a bit of experience now and there is arguably no one else in the league that is more likely to break off huge chunks of yardage on any one play. 

Sure, teams will have film on him now. But how much does that really change? You can’t stack the box against Brees. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see more formations with him out wide this year. 

 
Ilov80s said:
It was his 2nd year. A lot of people were a bit cool on OBJ going into year 2. I remember getting him with the last pick of the 1st and that was a good value. He had haters.
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It was his rookie season. I don’t recal much hesitation with OBJ after his rookie season, personally. 

 
Concept Coop said:
It was his rookie season. I don’t recal much hesitation with OBJ after his rookie season, personally. 
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Poorly worded, what I meant was during the summer going into OBJ's 2nd year there were drafters fading him. The OBJ thread here was lively as there were some big disagreements on how good OBJ really was. 

 
Interesting stat from last year..

"The Saints OL was the 9th most injured unit last year. They were one of four teams along with the Giants, Bears and and Cardinals to start a unique OL configuration every single week." - Warren Sharp

I remember going into the Saints message boards mid-season last year and seeing people sort of panic about the availability of Armstead but I wasn't completely aware of the situation. 

I'm kind of torn on Kamara this year to be honest. He's my keeper in one league and of course I'm very happy with that but I think I'd have trouble drafting him in the middle of the 1st round simply because my projections are telling me he should go closer to the turn. 

I buy that he'll likely see some non-zero dip in efficiency this year but I do not think it will be a massive reduction. He could feasibly pull a Charles and remain uber efficient on a moderate sized workload. I actually think that's the most likely scenario although assuming someone's career path will mimic Charles' (less carries, more receptions) might be kind of crazy but my eyes don't lie. I don't even want Kamara to get too many more carries, I'm all on board with Williams taking over the hammer role until Ingram comes back. More carries for Kamara will likely lead to less efficiency (so it'll be a wash) and increased injury risk. I like that Ingram would wear defenses down and Kamara would come in to clean them up last year, the difference in their running styles would mess with opposing defensive rhythm.

 
OMG Ok great drive but WHY jump from 10 feet in the stands onto a hard surface?

Doesn't he know the strain that puts on the knee ligaments?

His staff really need to sit him down and explain how important he is to this franchise. 

 
So damn good. Dealt Evans and Theilen for Kamara and Drake in dynasty a couple weeks ago and I'm feeling better about it. 

 
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He's very much like Jamaal Charles, in terms of workload concerns.  You aren't concerned about workload percentage, or goalline vultures, because he can can tear off chunks of yardage in two different ways, so he doesn't need x number of touches.  Couple carries here, couple catches here, and he has 10 points for you.  He catches a TD, and suddenly it's a monster game.  

His biggest negative, dynasty-wise, is Brees' age.  That's no small thing, but Jamaal Charles never had a Brees.  

Might be as safe a dynasty asset as there is.  

 
AK41 is just the total package (with apologies to Lex Luger). Runs with speed, power, and amazing vision.   And as bad as New Orleans' defense looked today, Sean Payton is going to have to give him at least 18 to 20 touches/game, even when Ingram returns.  . 

 
dcgangstas said:
AK41 is just the total package (with apologies to Lex Luger). Runs with speed, power, and amazing vision.   And as bad as New Orleans' defense looked today, Sean Payton is going to have to give him at least 18 to 20 touches/game, even when Ingram returns.  . 
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Kamara puts his opponent's in the Torture Rack.

All offseason experts told us that Kamara's historic efficiency has to go down.  They may be right in the long run, but there was certainly no indication of it yesterday.

 
steelers1080 said:
If they get up by 3-4 scores, do they sit Kamara?
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Browns will keep it close enough just to give their fans hope, and may even be up early, only to inevitably lose. I don’t think it’ll be a blow out. They only got beat by 3 TD’s once last year. I see Kamara getting his share. Even if he weren’t are you really going to sit him?

 
steelers1080 said:
If they get up by 3-4 scores, do they sit Kamara?
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Nope.   That's not in Sean Payton's DNA.   He loves to rub it in the other team's faces.    

AK41 is his attack dog.   He'll just point to the field and say "Sic 'em, Alvin.   Kill. "    

Regression?   What regression??  

 
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Elevencents said:
Browns will keep it close enough just to give their fans hope, and may even be up early, only to inevitably lose. I don’t think it’ll be a blow out. They only got beat by 3 TD’s once last year. I see Kamara getting his share. Even if he weren’t are you really going to sit him?
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Sit him? Who the #### are you talking to? No one is sitting him. Jesus. 

 
4th&inches said:
Just got an alert that Kamara was limited in practice with a knee injury.

https://twitter.com/caplannfl/status/1045036209104449539

Per Rotoworld:

God I hope there's nothing to see here...
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It Wednesday and he wasn't even sidelined. He's fine.

I'm not picking on you but this reminds me of last Thursday where I would type Landry's name into twitter and all I would read was "he's gimpy he's barely going to play" and "bump Callaway, Landry's knee is messed up" when Landry was turning in limited practices all week. It's so annoying.

I don't worry unless a player turns in a DNP on Friday.

And I like how Julio isn't going to practice until Friday and no one is even going to bat an eye. 

 
From NOLA.com: 

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara and defensive end Cameron Jordan were among a handful of new names on the Saints' injury report after practice Wednesday, the team's first session of the week as it prepares for Sunday's game against the New York Giants.

Kamara (knee) and Jordan (biceps) were both limited on Wednesday, but, for now, the expectation is they'll play in Sunday's game.

 
I agree no need for Kamara owners to panic - it’s Wednesday, and lots of players get Wednesday off as “limited” or whatever.

that it’s “knee” would seem to be a little cause for concern no matter how minor.   :shrug:

 
SameSongNDance said:
It Wednesday and he wasn't even sidelined. He's fine.

I'm not picking on you but this reminds me of last Thursday where I would type Landry's name into twitter and all I would read was "he's gimpy he's barely going to play" and "bump Callaway, Landry's knee is messed up" when Landry was turning in limited practices all week. It's so annoying.

I don't worry unless a player turns in a DNP on Friday.

And I like how Julio isn't going to practice until Friday and no one is even going to bat an eye. 
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I agree with you that Wednesday's are usually the "rest" days, however the fact it specified "knee" is what gives me at least a little pause. Again, not trying to waive the panic flag, but figured it was at least worth noting. 

 
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