Banger
Footballguy
I’m actually trying to package him for an upgrade where I own him.
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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
Might not be a bad idea - you can still probably get a lot for him on name recognition.
Banger
Footballguy
That’s my thought. His last 2 seasons haven’t been good. I believe I heard yesterday that he hasn’t had a 30 yard run in over 2 years.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
This week I immediately started targeting teams to trade him to. In the end, I decided to wait one game and then take another look. If he struggles, but gets 20 touches I feel his value increases. I'm holding.
zamboni
Footballguy
That's also a fair point. Even if he's not the Kamara of 2020 any more, volume is king and there aren't a ton of RBs getting a lot of volume these days. I do think Kendre Miller (and Jamaal when he returns) will prevent Kamara from being a workhorse, but we'll see.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Has he ever been a workhorse or bellcow RB? He averages ~ 190 carries and 65 rec over the last 6 years... That is not the high volume wear and tear many RB's see compared to Derrick Henry averaging > 270 carries over the past 6 years. Henry has > 1800 carries alone while Kamara has 1135 over that same span (~62% of the workload).
Kamara is not a 20 carry/game RB. He is a receiving threat out of the backfield & averages 4 rec and 11 carriers per game
I moved Mattison for Kamara last week (just prior to Akers trade). Between Kamara & Kupp coming back, I was hoping to be competitive as the season goes on.
I am NOT expecting a "slow start" for Kamara since Carr is out and Winston knows Kamara. Winston would rather try to make a difficult throw into tight windows then dump off to the RB as a release play. But maybe the OC/staff has him seeing value in that with his high turnover rate last year (7 TO in 3 games prior to his injury).
QUESTION: Was the restructure of Kamara's contract incentive laden? I don't recall the details. If so, does he have anything to prove?
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair points - he's always shared the load but was so efficient with his touches to make him a top tier fantasy asset. The question is whether he can maintain his efficiency and whether he's used a lot more in the passing game than he was last year.
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The Gator
Footballguy
Mattison and a 3rd three weeks ago.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Robbery. Even before Akers
jtd13
Footballguy
Yeah, I wish I could get that one
Birdie048
Footballguy
Mattison & Sutton for Kamara & Elijah Moore days before Akers
zoonation
Footballguy
what a fleecing.
In the off-season people were paying a second for him before and after the Jamaal signing.
Since that time they drafted Kendre(a negative) but Kamara's status is now known and I think most would agree that getting only 3 games was a win for his value.
All in all not a ton has changed IMO to really move the needle on what he was going for in dynasty. A second feels like the goldilocks zone, a first is to much, a third to cheap.
Can't wait to see him play this week. I think his rib cartilage injury and poor usage has led to an overreaction that he was on serious decline. But maybe he comes out and looks as washed as his 2017 draft mate, Dalvin. I don't think that's the case, look forward to finding out.
Insein
Footballguy
For week 4, I'm starting to rethink just throwing him in there. Historically against TB he has not done well. He's never gone over 100 rushing. Only once did he go over 100 total yards in the last 5 years. For whatever reason, TB has his number. Combine that with knocking off the rust and Carr most likely being out and I'm willing to wait a week to see what he does. Helps that I can throw Moss in there instead.
I wish I had Moss as an option. For me it is Kamara or Hall. Kamara it is!
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I’m kind of hoping that TB coming off a short week where they got ran all over they are extra sore. Saints according to FBG have another top 10 offensive line.
At least this is my hope.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
My option is benching one of Swift, Kamara, Christian Kirk in PPR
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Kirk easily, IMO.
Kamara looked explosive to me in the preseason game(s) I saw of him. I expect him to come out hot.
UncleZen
Footballguy
For the last several years, Bucs have had a top rushing defense and got burnt by their secondary. This year, not so much.
I answered this earlier but will add he was traded for Drake London in a league of mine today. And fwiw the owner trading away London posted he was willing to trade him for a QB or RB, and said he got a lot of offers to mull over last night and today did this move.
From the NFL official website.
Alvin Kamara has played 12 games with Jameis Winston at quarterback.
Rushing yds- 689
Receiving yds-365
Receptions- 46
Rushing TD's- 5
Receiving TD's- 5
In two games against Tampa(when their rush defense was much better) with Winston at qb he tallied 15.5 and 16.5 fantasy points in ppr leagues.
Alvin Kamara has played 12 games with Jameis Winston at quarterback.
Rushing yds- 689
Receiving yds-365
Receptions- 46
Rushing TD's- 5
Receiving TD's- 5
In two games against Tampa(when their rush defense was much better) with Winston at qb he tallied 15.5 and 16.5 fantasy points in ppr leagues.
Doug B
Footballguy
Not this year, at least not yet. The offensive line has been struggling so far. Much debate and hullabaloo among fans regarding why.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Kinda figured it was just nice to read;
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Alvin Kamara is “bracing for a full workload.”
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Alvin Kamara is “bracing for a full workload.”
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Didn't see any of the game, but 13 catches for 33 yards seems not good.
And probably more catches to come in garbage time
And probably more catches to come in garbage time
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Saints oline is atrocious. Carmichaels play calling is some of the worst. He should have been fired in the offseason. Devin White played like he had a copy of NOs playbook. There’s nothing wrong with Kamara. His runs were strong and with much determination.
Couldn't tell from the boxscore. He had like 2 tackles and 3 assists.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
great post. kamara looks spry and strong and his vision is there. especially the second half he looked like he got his mojo back. play calling, o-line, carr, none of it very good. plus they keep going to the formation with Hill, which I dunno if it's a good or a bad thing for the saints in real life football, but not good for kamara fantasy value imo. he had a couple of long runs called back by holding penalty and had defenders hitting him deep in the backfield twice that i recall. all that to say this game is probably his absolute floor ros.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
That might be the case, but he was always in the right place at the right time.
Single handedly making the case against PPR leagues.
zoonation
Footballguy
Clearly not a third down back though
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Last year I play in a ppr league lol
BespokeJort
Footballguy
Been sayin I hate full ppr; half ppr is fun but I wish I could get my leagues on board with point per rushing/receiving first down as a better alternative.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
I'm not arrogant enough to believe that my league rules are the only way ff should be played. Thats like saying just because a good defensive line funnels RBs to a middle linebacker who ends up with 15 tackles that IDP leagues are dumb. Draft according to your league rules.
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
or for them, if you stashed him on your bench, were patient 3 weeks and desperately needed help at RB.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I couldn't believe this stat line when I saw it
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Never playing in PPR again.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Of course.
But when the rules lead to such disparity for only a few players its also time to recognize those rules are broken.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
Travis Kelce has consistently been the FF TE1 for the longest of times. Seems like there is a large disparity between him and the other TEs. Are the rules broken for him as well? Seems pretty silly.
Draft according to your rules. That's why FF owners draft Kelce in the 1st round or early second.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Kelce has been that good regardless of scoring format though.
But 13 receptions for only 33 yards? And less than 200 total yards for the team. I know Carr was hurt but their offense hasn't looked good for a while. 20 pts or less in 11 straight games.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah 2.5 ypr.
zamboni
Footballguy
13 for 33 is a poster child for supporting the argument I've seen for a higher correlation of fantasy scoring with actual NFL scoring. That stat line is really good for PPR fantasy purposes, not so much for NFL.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Last time I looked the average yards per reception for a player at the RB position was something between 7 and 8 yards, which in itself would be incentive enough for FF players to prioritize RB who are more likely to have a lot of receptions than ones who are not. It about double the expected yardage a RB would gain from a rushing attempt, and the RB who do get a lot of receptions tend to be gaining yardage at the top of that range or better per reception, otherwise teams would not throw it to them as much.
Then you add a point for the reception on top of this which is equivelent to 10 yards in most scoring systems that play becomes worth about 2.5 times as much as a rushing attempt.
The effect of this is a distortion of FF players perception of who the good RBs are.
To give an extreme example Adrian Petersons 2k rushing season coming off of an ACL injury still wasnt that impactful for FF purposes because he didnt have many receptions compared to other RB who did that same season or RB who have have many receptions in a season since then.
The whole reasoning for using PPR scoring was to create more balance between the RB and WR positions, because of drafts once being dominated by RB picks in the 1st three rounds. There are other reasons why this was the case besides the fact that RB tend to touch the ball a lot more than players from other positions that still exist today. Injuries to players at the position are more frequent and scarcity at the position is greater.
However the NFL has changed a lot since this was implimented. Teams pass the ball more than they used to and RBBC is more frequent now than it was back then. Also RBs are a bigger part of teams passing offenses now than they used to be.
In my view PPR scoring jumped the shark a long time ago but as far as I know it continues to be the most popular scoring system for FF although in todays NFL it is a lot less neccessary for creating diversity in draft pick prioritization than it used to be.
This example is just showing how distorted it has become when a player can gain almost half the yards of a rushing attempt yet still score more than twice as many points on a per play basis.
Then you add a point for the reception on top of this which is equivelent to 10 yards in most scoring systems that play becomes worth about 2.5 times as much as a rushing attempt.
The effect of this is a distortion of FF players perception of who the good RBs are.
To give an extreme example Adrian Petersons 2k rushing season coming off of an ACL injury still wasnt that impactful for FF purposes because he didnt have many receptions compared to other RB who did that same season or RB who have have many receptions in a season since then.
The whole reasoning for using PPR scoring was to create more balance between the RB and WR positions, because of drafts once being dominated by RB picks in the 1st three rounds. There are other reasons why this was the case besides the fact that RB tend to touch the ball a lot more than players from other positions that still exist today. Injuries to players at the position are more frequent and scarcity at the position is greater.
However the NFL has changed a lot since this was implimented. Teams pass the ball more than they used to and RBBC is more frequent now than it was back then. Also RBs are a bigger part of teams passing offenses now than they used to be.
In my view PPR scoring jumped the shark a long time ago but as far as I know it continues to be the most popular scoring system for FF although in todays NFL it is a lot less neccessary for creating diversity in draft pick prioritization than it used to be.
This example is just showing how distorted it has become when a player can gain almost half the yards of a rushing attempt yet still score more than twice as many points on a per play basis.
