leftcoastheel
Footballguy
How many more years can this guy compete like this? I get that his usage has not been the same as Henry or Cook or other RBs of similar vintage... but man, will we be drafting him in earlier rounds next year?
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RB Alvin Kamara, NO (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hugsy_Malone
Footballguy
IRL, I think I would take quite a few. I'm not a talent evaluator, but you've got to think there are other guys you'd rather have running between the tackles. That said, he's outplaying a JAG this year who specializes in that—and Kamara is getting those carries—so either Jamaal is worse than we think or Kamara must be better than we think.
In fantasy, it depends upon dynasty or redraft. In redraft, you could argue he's still a top five or top ten back, which pushes him at furthest back into the third round of a standard twelve-team league. In dynasty that fades awfully quickly. You'd have a hard time getting him in the top twenty. I'm looking at Breece Hall, Bijan, Jahmyr and a host of others right off of the bat. I'd really need a list of starters to do that quickly, but there are a bunch I'd rather have given his age, yes.
leftcoastheel
Footballguy
Yeah, I would take all those guys in dynasty for sure.
Probably the only guys I'd prefer in redraft RN though is CMC and Kyren for fantasy purposes. Despite this and oxymoronically, IRL I would love to see Kamara as a Ram this year...
Probably the only guys I'd prefer in redraft RN though is CMC and Kyren for fantasy purposes. Despite this and oxymoronically, IRL I would love to see Kamara as a Ram this year...
The Gator
Footballguy
I think Kamara would destroy in McVay's system.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Gonna be 29 at start of season but has 1300ish career carries. Be interesting what his value will be next year.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Assuming the Saints are smart enough to take their cap medicine next two seasons and unload their tradeable vets, where does Kamara get moved to? My guess is a competitive team would still give up a 3rd or 4th rounder to ride him as a dual-purpose back for the next year or two in all-in run for the playoffs, but whom?
Chiefs
Bills
Dolphins
Chargers
Ravens
Texans
Just in the AFC alone seem like decently viable landing spots.
Chiefs
Bills
Dolphins
Chargers
Ravens
Texans
Just in the AFC alone seem like decently viable landing spots.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
This felt bad.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Certainly not ideal lol, he was I think 4th in the league in RB for PPR. Down game at the wrong time hurts
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Just starting now. I'm gonna sue him for want of points!
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Next week at Tampa he can reverse this bad feeling.
Kuz
Footballguy
That could be true.. Let's hope the rest of our team can help us win to get to the Championship. He got me 4.5 in my .5 PPR.. I'm in trouble.
Tau837
Footballguy
No chance for the Chargers. They have too much of a 2024 cap challenge.
-jb-
Footballguy
Rams have been really good against the run lately.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Not sure any RBs would have done much of anything if given those same touches Kamara had
Rookiefever
Footballguy
Only us owners will remember this. Others will look at the points. Might be a good time to sell after we’re all bounced from the playoffs 
leftcoastheel
Footballguy
Yeah that was some weird play calling and game planning for him. Just weird.
dmac37
Footballguy
Also been good vs receiving RB’s if I heard correctly. Was not going to sit him, honestly believed my other 2 backs Bijan and A. Jones would have a better week. I at least expected 10+ PPR points from Kamara but was not shocked it was tough sledding vs the Ram D.
The main takeaway is that one of the best beat writers going is writing articles on assumption Kamara is not going anywhere.
Also not for nothing but had read that Kamara was at the team facility last week or so, not typical of a player on the "outs' to be around the facility over a month since the season ended.
Also not for nothing but had read that Kamara was at the team facility last week or so, not typical of a player on the "outs' to be around the facility over a month since the season ended.
metoo
Footballguy
More extracurricular activity. Not important.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Curious to see where his ADP ends up. Early rankings and ADP have a very wide range from 25-65. With the coordinator change, J. Williams looking washed, and K. Miller likely one year out from an opportunity to take over, Kamara could be a steal. It's just a matter of whether you think his poor 2023 campaign was largely attributed to poor OL play and poor offensive scheme or to him losing a step. I'm of the mind that he's only lost half a step (rigorous analysis, I know) and with a more creative scheme, limited RB competition, and improved OL play (even if it's only slightly), he could be in for a very nice year (particularly against his ADP if it stays elevated compared with where I think it should be). In addition to all that, despite being suspended 3 games and being inefficient with his touches he still had a very good year in terms of pure per game fantasy production.
jm192
Footballguy
I've hit a point where I'm struggling between Kamara, Mixon, and Achane for RB 13-15.
On Kamara's end:
180 rushes, 694 yards, 5 touchdowns
75 receptions, 466 yards, 1 touchdown
Extrapolate that over 17 games
235 rush, 907 yards, 98 receptions, 609 rec yards, 8 total touchdowns
1516 total yards, nearly 100 catches, 8 touchdowns
In 0.5 PPR:
He played 13 games and finished RB14 overall.
Over 17 games, he would have finished as the RB2 overall ( not counting for games missed by other guys). It's not a perfect way to do it, but he would have been right in line with Mostert, ETN, Breece.
He'll be 29 when the season starts. I was previously pretty down on him because of increasing age and decreasing efficiency. I assume missing early games didn't help. He won't have that issue this year.
Their offensive line had a lot of issues last season. They've overhauled it with younger pieces. I'm reading Kubiak wants to implement a wide zone scheme, which seems like it should suit Kamara's skillset better. This could be the last hurrah for Kamara on the Saints. I fully expect them to heavily utilize him again.
I think I'm currently putting him at RB13. Fantasypros has him at RB17. FBG has him at RB17 as well.
On Kamara's end:
180 rushes, 694 yards, 5 touchdowns
75 receptions, 466 yards, 1 touchdown
Extrapolate that over 17 games
235 rush, 907 yards, 98 receptions, 609 rec yards, 8 total touchdowns
1516 total yards, nearly 100 catches, 8 touchdowns
In 0.5 PPR:
He played 13 games and finished RB14 overall.
Over 17 games, he would have finished as the RB2 overall ( not counting for games missed by other guys). It's not a perfect way to do it, but he would have been right in line with Mostert, ETN, Breece.
He'll be 29 when the season starts. I was previously pretty down on him because of increasing age and decreasing efficiency. I assume missing early games didn't help. He won't have that issue this year.
Their offensive line had a lot of issues last season. They've overhauled it with younger pieces. I'm reading Kubiak wants to implement a wide zone scheme, which seems like it should suit Kamara's skillset better. This could be the last hurrah for Kamara on the Saints. I fully expect them to heavily utilize him again.
I think I'm currently putting him at RB13. Fantasypros has him at RB17. FBG has him at RB17 as well.
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
It's tough to say just what to think of the situation.
Upside case- still got 13.8 carries and 6.6 targets per game. Some improvements to the overall offensive environment could help with the offensive efficiency. 17.9 ppr ppg / 15 half ppr/ 12.2 standard is nothing to sniff at.
Meh case- Kendre Miller is a good but not great talent. If he was elite, he would have passed Kamara on the depth chart already. How much dumpoff football does Kubiak actually want? Carr's still there.. Meh
Downside case- Kendre Miller simply has more juice at this point in their respective careers and takes over as the lead back, relegating a 29 year old Kamara to the 1B, making Kendre a low end RB2 and Kamara a flex option. Kamara's career as a rusher is like two different guys. First 5 years 4.9 yards per carry. Last 3 years 3.9. Counting on a running back to get 14 targets for fantasy value seems like a flimsy basis for projecting future value. FWIW, the target volume in the 2nd half (games 8-17) for Kamara was down to 5 tgts per game after getting 10 per game in his first 4 games back.
Upside case- still got 13.8 carries and 6.6 targets per game. Some improvements to the overall offensive environment could help with the offensive efficiency. 17.9 ppr ppg / 15 half ppr/ 12.2 standard is nothing to sniff at.
Meh case- Kendre Miller is a good but not great talent. If he was elite, he would have passed Kamara on the depth chart already. How much dumpoff football does Kubiak actually want? Carr's still there.. Meh
Downside case- Kendre Miller simply has more juice at this point in their respective careers and takes over as the lead back, relegating a 29 year old Kamara to the 1B, making Kendre a low end RB2 and Kamara a flex option. Kamara's career as a rusher is like two different guys. First 5 years 4.9 yards per carry. Last 3 years 3.9. Counting on a running back to get 14 targets for fantasy value seems like a flimsy basis for projecting future value. FWIW, the target volume in the 2nd half (games 8-17) for Kamara was down to 5 tgts per game after getting 10 per game in his first 4 games back.
jm192
Footballguy
Kubiak just left SF where CMC got over 4 receptions and 5 targets per game.
Carr obviously likes dropping it off to AK.
I feel good about the passing game usage.
Rockchild
Footballguy
I don't see his 2023 campaign as being poor. He missed the first 3 games because of suspension and still finished as RB 11(to week 18), RB7 (to week 16) and RB2 (week 4-16). I'm not sure how much more he could have done. Maybe he's lost a half step but he still produced.
Yeah, what on earth with him having a poor campaign??? He was RB5 in full PPR on the season and from weeks 4-17. He did peter out the last few weeks, might have left a bad taste with some people, but he was excellent last year and one of the steals of the year.
I mentioned him being very productive from a fantasy perspective on a per game basis. However, all of his efficiency metrics (yards after contact, ypc, etc.) were objectively bad. He might receive as many per game touches as he did last season, but that's a tall order. So I'm hoping the new coordinator and improved line offset a potential drop in touches. He was pretty great last year in terms of his fantasy production when he played, but looking behind those number suggests that it was more because of his high usage rate. Will that continue? I hope so. As of now I plan to target him in all of my leagues, especially if his ADP is depressed into rounds 4-5 due to age/efficiency concerns.
SanDawg
Footballguy
Great opportunity for Miller here. Will be fun to watch how this plays out.
steelcityman
Footballguy
It all comes down to Carr and Hill.
Carr is average at best, but he dumps it off to AK a lot. Wish it was for more than 1 ypr.
Hill, I assume is going to get goal line touches and steal TDs from both Carr and Kamara.
Miller doesnt effect anything IMO.
I tried trading Kamara all offseason, no one wants him, so he is my RB2 this year(Bijan RB1), and i am fine with that.
I am pretty much saddled with Kamara until he breaks down. I dont think its this year.
Carr is average at best, but he dumps it off to AK a lot. Wish it was for more than 1 ypr.
Hill, I assume is going to get goal line touches and steal TDs from both Carr and Kamara.
Miller doesnt effect anything IMO.
I tried trading Kamara all offseason, no one wants him, so he is my RB2 this year(Bijan RB1), and i am fine with that.
I am pretty much saddled with Kamara until he breaks down. I dont think its this year.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Would anyone believe me if I told them Kamara never rushed for 1,000 yds ever in a season?
21 TDs in 2020...since then he hasn't scored 21 TDs total in 3 seasons combined
81+ catches every year his 1st 4 seasons, that's where he made his living
83/1688/21TDs - 2020
47/1337/9TDs - 2021
57/1387/4 TDs - 2022...he had some injuries and then he also was suspended part of the season last year
75/1,160/6 TD - 2023
-What I take from these stats is the big drop off in total yds last season despite 75 catches, how is that going to get better in 2024?
I always like the name Kamara on Draft Day, especially as a RB2/3 but he no longer can be thought of as a sleeper RB1, it doesn't add up.
The QB is definitely a problem, not that much amazing talent around him and his TD opportunities since Coach Sean left, not the same.
He still likely will catch 60+ balls if he stays healthy and gets enough snaps. 4.0/3.9 yds per carry last 2 years, that's not promising.
All time low in yds per catch last season.
He's on the down side, no matter where you decide to take him in the Draft
21 TDs in 2020...since then he hasn't scored 21 TDs total in 3 seasons combined
81+ catches every year his 1st 4 seasons, that's where he made his living
83/1688/21TDs - 2020
47/1337/9TDs - 2021
57/1387/4 TDs - 2022...he had some injuries and then he also was suspended part of the season last year
75/1,160/6 TD - 2023
-What I take from these stats is the big drop off in total yds last season despite 75 catches, how is that going to get better in 2024?
I always like the name Kamara on Draft Day, especially as a RB2/3 but he no longer can be thought of as a sleeper RB1, it doesn't add up.
The QB is definitely a problem, not that much amazing talent around him and his TD opportunities since Coach Sean left, not the same.
He still likely will catch 60+ balls if he stays healthy and gets enough snaps. 4.0/3.9 yds per carry last 2 years, that's not promising.
All time low in yds per catch last season.
He's on the down side, no matter where you decide to take him in the Draft
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brewer
Footballguy
In my main league he was RB8 in points per game. I'm not expecting him to be CMC, but I'll take that production for where is going in drafts and auctions.
Sure, his best days are probably behind him but he should eat in that offense.
jm192
Footballguy
This is where I'm at.
He finished as an RB1 in PPG. He had stupid usage. I think the NFC South is meh enough that the Saints should be in the playoff hunt until late in the season. I would assume they want to use Kamara heavily while they're in it.
Is he going to finish RB1 overall? Almost certainly not.
Could he finish top 10 or 12? Yes.
Are we drafting him at his ceiling? No.
I've got him as RB14. FBG has him at RB16. Fantasypros has him at RB17. (All 0.5 PPR).
He's going in the 4th--sometimes late 4th round. I like the price tag.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'm not a hater, just stating the facts and stats, was anything you disagreed with specifically?
I hear you, RB8, had him on a few teams last year even with the 4-game suspension. Was largely underwhelmed many weeks.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Last 2 seasons Dennis Allen running the ship, he's still in charge, what changes in terms of stats from '23 to '24?
I clearly laid out the stats and put my attention on the large drop off in yds per touch, add in 28 yrs old...
Alvin Kamara Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the latest stats for Alvin Kamara. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.
www.pro-football-reference.com
RB16? ADP-78?
He's definitely value if he you can scoop him up in the early 7th round as an RB3?
Depends on your team and make up but I like other RBs at least equal around that area if not later.
jm192
Footballguy
Last 2 seasons Dennis Allen running the ship, he's still in charge, what changes in terms of stats from '23 to '24?
I clearly laid out the stats and put my attention on the large drop off in yds per touch, add in 28 yrs old...
-What am I missing?Alvin Kamara Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the latest stats for Alvin Kamara. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.
RB16? ADP-78?
He's definitely value if he you can scoop him up in the early 7th round as an RB3?
Depends on your team and make up but I like other RBs at least equal around that area if not later.
According the Fantasypros, he finished 5th in PPG for 0.5 PPR.
So let's say NOTHING changes. He's inefficient, but sees enough volume to compete for RB1 Status.
But something did change, right? The Saints hire Klint Kubiak as the offensive coordinator. Without digging too much into it, the wide zone system sounds more suited to what Kamara excels at. He was the passing game coordinator for SF last year, and CMC saw a ton of targets. I certainly think Kamara will continue to be heavily utilized in the passing game.
So yeah, he's older. Yeah, he's not as efficient. But the end of year numbers still wound up good.
Part of your initial argument was that he hasn't had 21 TD's combined in the last 3 season. He's not the Alvin Kamara of old. I'm not arguing he is. But the 2023 version was plenty good to fantasy. Top 5 on a points per game basis good. I think he's got top 10-12 upside. Maybe could sneak into the top 8. But I'm drafting him as the RB14. You can get him as the RB16/17.
brewer
Footballguy
It's not that I disagree with anything you said, I just think he is still the top dog in an offense that is going to want to run the ball a lot under Klint Kubiak(I see that jm192 is making this same point as I am typing out this message).
Miller will have a bigger role though how much bigger will depend on his performance,
Not saying Kamara still can't be productive esp in ppr, but I'd expect some drop off from an already declining player.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
He's being drafted appropriately because there's a ton of downside risk to go with the upside.
He's not any more efficient than a presumably ascending talent and a crapton of his value is based on getting peppered with targets which are offenses that are dying.
He's not any more efficient than a presumably ascending talent and a crapton of his value is based on getting peppered with targets which are offenses that are dying.
jm192
Footballguy
But, his offensive coordinator was the passing game coordinator for SF. Where their RB just saw a lot of targets.
And while I would concede that CMC is an elite pass catching back, so is Kamara. Logically, the pass catching volume seems exceedingly likely to continue.
jm192
Footballguy
All of the declining efficiency arguments are why I wouldn’t take Kamara as an RB1. I was worried about him last year for that reason. As well as the suspension. There’s a lot of downside if he’s being picked as a top running back.
But as an RB2 that just finished 5th in PPG, there’s upside. If his efficiency slips a little more, he probably still gives you RB2 value, which is what you’re paying for.
So I wouldn’t advocate taking him ad a top 12 RB. But if you’re getting him RB15-17, I think he can outperform that price tag for you.
But as an RB2 that just finished 5th in PPG, there’s upside. If his efficiency slips a little more, he probably still gives you RB2 value, which is what you’re paying for.
So I wouldn’t advocate taking him ad a top 12 RB. But if you’re getting him RB15-17, I think he can outperform that price tag for you.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Understood but he's NEVER rushed for 1,000 yds
He never carries it much past about 200 carries with a couple exceptions
My point was he makes his money being a 2-way threat and I'm not sold he still is
His yds per catch was all time low last year and he has the same QB
Maybe the new OC wants to lighten his load in receptions and then where are you at?
-We all took advantage of the 4 game suspension last year
This is not the Drew Brees/Sean Payton offense of 2020
I'm asking everyone to take a pause and just think this out
Raheem Mostert is going off the board asRB28 and almost pick #100 overall...Miami offense is light years better than New Orleans
And...Achane can't possibly carry a full load right now, Mostert will continue to see scoring opps and touches, Miami does not abuse Mostert, better value IMHO
TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD-TD...every one of those TDs is worth 60 yds or 6 catches, it closes the gap quickly.
Aaron Jones, Rhamondre Stephenson who was just extended, Pollard, rookie-Brooks in Carolina
If I can get us all to take a step back, I did put many of you right into my Redraft thread this morning
I'm not anti-Kamara, cannot stress that enough but I just don't want to put all my eggs in the same basket with him.
I like Kamara as part of a 3-Back platoon for RB2/3/Flex spots
jm192
Footballguy
Right, but just as you say those TD's are worth yards/catches---the passing game volume he gets made up for those problems last year. I think the passing game continues.
In regards to "This is not Brees and Payton" AGAIN, he finished top 5 in PPG last year. It wasn't Brees and Payton last year. You seem to keep glossing right over his actual fantasy points from last year to talk about yards per carry and age. But yards per carry doesn't win fantasy games. Fantasy points do.
I think Mostert is also underrated. But you keep saying Kamara is 28, 28, 28. 28 is so old. Mostert is 32.
I like Aaron Jones, but I'm worried about the injury issues and the change of scenery. Maybe McCarthy passes to him a ton.
I like Kamara quite a bit more than Rhamondre. I think that Patriots offense is going to be brutal.
Pollard probably splits touches pretty down the middle with Spears as they are very similar backs.
Brooks tore his ACL back in November. Most guys coming off of an ACL aren't the same guy until the 2nd season back. And he goes to such a bad offense in Carolina.
Doug B
Footballguy
Locally ... A LOT of blame for the offensive woes was placed at former OC Peter Carmichael's feet. There were serious O-line problems the first half of the season, and Carr himself was playing hurt for much of the season. But Carmichael's play-calling got most of the blame.
With new OC Klint Kubiak, hope springs eternal. We'll see if he elevates the Saints' skill players or not.
Kamara turns 29 in August. I can say he takes very few knockout shots for a RB and doesn't go between the tackles much. Not saying he'll be Frank Gore, but Kamara's probably physically OK given his usage.
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