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RB Ameer Abdullah, LV (1 Viewer)

FF Ninja said:
In New Orleans? Yes, but he would start out in the backfield and go in motion (if my memory is correct). To my knowledge, he was rarely used as a slot WR while another RB was on the field. The question wasn't if a running back ever manned the slot, it was if teams ever genuinely deployed two RBs in the same formation with any regularity. 
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I understand but I feel like Sproles had a pretty solid spot in a spread formation as a wide receiver- not lining up as a RB and oging into motion. 2 RBs on the field, one in the backfield and Sproles in the slot. 

Maybe I'm wrong. It was a long time ago. Obviously the fact that we can't pinpoint exactly what the deal was with that example is support for "this rarely if ever happens" 

I'm not sure if Riddick in the slot would even make much sense... I would be curious what the average Air Yardage would be for Riddick's receptions compared to his total yardage. I would imagine the Air Yards are very low. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I understand but I feel like Sproles had a pretty solid spot in a spread formation as a wide receiver- not lining up as a RB and oging into motion. 2 RBs on the field, one in the backfield and Sproles in the slot. 

Maybe I'm wrong. It was a long time ago. Obviously the fact that we can't pinpoint exactly what the deal was with that example is support for "this rarely if ever happens" 
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Well, in 2012 the Saints played 1108 offensive snaps and the RBs totaled 1190, so there was some overlap, but it wasn't very much.

 
So let's say worst case scenario is Riddick is the passing down back in a RBBC. What would people expect for receptions for the two of them? 

Then let's say Riddick is used as a slot WR (2 RBs at the same time) as this rumor says... what would predictions be for each for receptions?

I think the big difference for Abdullah being a super solid RB2 or even a RB1 is if he can get receptions in a PPR league. He seemed to be involved last year before he got hurt, but Riddick also had a lot of receptions those same games (I think Riddick and Abdullah had 5 each the first game?) 

 
Dr. Dan said:
So let's say worst case scenario is Riddick is the passing down back in a RBBC. What would people expect for receptions for the two of them? 

Then let's say Riddick is used as a slot WR (2 RBs at the same time) as this rumor says... what would predictions be for each for receptions?

I think the big difference for Abdullah being a super solid RB2 or even a RB1 is if he can get receptions in a PPR league. He seemed to be involved last year before he got hurt, but Riddick also had a lot of receptions those same games (I think Riddick and Abdullah had 5 each the first game?) 
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1. In 2015 when using a Bell/Abdullah on early downs and Riddick on 3rd downs, Bell/Abdullah combined for 47 rec and Riddick had 80. If Abdullah is taking over 1st/2nd downs, then I think they could very well have a 50/80 split.

2. I don't know how many of Boldin's 67 rec came from the slot, but I'm guessing a lot. So if Riddick is playing the slot and Abdullah is playing RB then they both stand to see a silly increase. I don't think it'll happen, so I'm hesitant to guess, but for the sake of the hypothetical, I'd say it could be 70/100 if Abdullah is now catching 3rd downs out of the back field and Riddick is now catching passes on 1st and 2nd down.

To be a solid RB2, Abdullah will either need to be utilized in the passing game on early downs OR he'll need to sneak into the endzone ~8 times from outside of the goal line (because he'll be losing goal line carries). 

 
FF Ninja said:
1. In 2015 when using a Bell/Abdullah on early downs and Riddick on 3rd downs, Bell/Abdullah combined for 47 rec and Riddick had 80. If Abdullah is taking over 1st/2nd downs, then I think they could very well have a 50/80 split.

2. I don't know how many of Boldin's 67 rec came from the slot, but I'm guessing a lot. So if Riddick is playing the slot and Abdullah is playing RB then they both stand to see a silly increase. I don't think it'll happen, so I'm hesitant to guess, but for the sake of the hypothetical, I'd say it could be 70/100 if Abdullah is now catching 3rd downs out of the back field and Riddick is now catching passes on 1st and 2nd down.

To be a solid RB2, Abdullah will either need to be utilized in the passing game on early downs OR he'll need to sneak into the endzone ~8 times from outside of the goal line (because he'll be losing goal line carries). 
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I'm in agreement with this for the most part. 50 is still hard for me to agree on as a worst case scenario, I feel like 50 is a best case scenario. Worst case I'd say is 35. However at the end of the day if we are debating over an average of 1 reception a game I think we are in pretty close agreement overall (15 total fantasy points will not be the difference between RB2 and RB3+ for Abdullah)

 
Dr. Dan said:
I'm in agreement with this for the most part. 50 is still hard for me to agree on as a worst case scenario, I feel like 50 is a best case scenario. Worst case I'd say is 35. However at the end of the day if we are debating over an average of 1 reception a game I think we are in pretty close agreement overall (15 total fantasy points will not be the difference between RB2 and RB3+ for Abdullah)
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I thought you meant worst case scenario is that Abdullah cedes all 3rd down receptions to Riddick, and you were looking for a middle ground prediction based on that. Not: the worst case scenario for receptions for Abdullah if they both play 16 games. If Abdullah plays 16 games, I agree 35 is the worst case scenario. I mean, he had 25 as a rookie while splitting early downs. Best case, assuming Riddick is in on all 3rd down, is maybe to 60 (just guessed a number higher than the 47 Bell/Abdullah got in 2015) - but again, that's absolute best case, which would involve the team installing plays/game planning to utilize him in the passing game on early downs.

I still think 40-50 is a good range for 16 games unless he loses 1st/2nd down snaps to someone else.

 
https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/rushing-expectation-ameer-abdullah-theo-riddick-zach-zenner

Excerpt:

I will continue to stress that Expected Success Rate is an insanely useful metric because it does a great job separating a running back's performance from that of his blocking, which is especially relevant in Abdullah's case because the Lions boast some of the worst offensive line numbers in the league over the past two seasons. However, even when taking the Lions' poor blocking into account, he performed well above expectation. In fact, among my 60-player sample, Abdullah finished in the 87th percentile in regards to his Expectation Score on the ground (and 89th through the air) in '15.

Abdullah overcame his poor offensive line with elite short-area burst which allows him to get to the outside seemingly at will, but he is patient enough to use his blockers. Abdullah is the kind of player that has the ability to consistently turn bad situations into positive gains using his elusiveness behind the line of scrimmage.

One of the biggest reasons I believe in Abdullah is that two seasons ago, his 7.7 yards before contact was in the 99th percentile. As I mentioned in the Rushing Expectation intro column, elusiveness behind the line of scrimmage is an extremely underrated ability among the league's best running backs. 
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I'm assuming he worded the sentence "even when taking the Lions' poor blocking into account, he performed well above expectation" incorrectly. Not sure if he meant to exclude the word "even" or if he meant to say "without" instead of "when."

 
Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press set Ameer Abdullah's over/under for rushing yards at 850.

Birkett also set Abdullah's O/U for receiving yards at 450. Both of those would constitute new career highs by several hundred yards. The 24-year-old has a long history of injuries and a fumbling problem that dates back to Nebraska. Despite those shortcomings, the Lions did not address running back in the draft and will give Abdullah every opportunity to assert himself as the lead back. Abdullah is being drafted as an RB3 in most formats.

Source: Detroit Free Press

Jul 16 - 11:36 AM
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FF Ninja said:
https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/06/100-fantasy-football-stats-heading-into-2017/
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Wow. Interesting. 

Ilov80s said:
He is a very long time Lions beat writer 
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I'd expect a Packer fan who pays casual attention to the Lions to get this wrong (myself), but not a long time Lions beat writer... 

Over/Under rushing yards at 850... I'm 50/50 on my expectations of Abdullah but at 850 I'd gladly take the over. Does Birkett do paypal? 

To get 851 yards Abdullah needs to have 198 attempts at 4.3 YPC (his career avg). He had 143 attempts as a rookie in a crowded backfield... And I firmly believe he will be higher than 4.3 YPC. What an odd prediction. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Wow. Interesting. 

I'd expect a Packer fan who pays casual attention to the Lions to get this wrong (myself), but not a long time Lions beat writer... 

Over/Under rushing yards at 850... I'm 50/50 on my expectations of Abdullah but at 850 I'd gladly take the over. Does Birkett do paypal? 

To get 851 yards Abdullah needs to have 198 attempts at 4.3 YPC (his career avg). He had 143 attempts as a rookie in a crowded backfield... And I firmly believe he will be higher than 4.3 YPC. What an odd prediction. 
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I don't think there is any ever reason to pay attention to a beat writer's stat projections. 

 
Also to be fair to Birkett, Ameer has been with the Lions for 2 years. He had shoulder surgery last offseason that cost him part of camp and Lisfranc surgery which basically cost him an entire season. It just so happened his shoulder injury happened at the end of the 2016 season. If it happened earlier, that could have been another season lost. So, from the perspective of his time in the NFL, Ameer has been hurt/recovering from being hurt a lot. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Right, why does he have the injury label? I think he got banged up a few times at Nebraska, but never missed games. I have heard speculation that workload at Nebraska caused lots of minor injuries which made him less effective. His YPC always tanked in November and December. I am not sure I buy that- could just be tougher competition. 
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My theory:

  • He's small (but the same size as many work horse backs, I think I posted somewhere in here a bunch of guys with similar height/weight combos)
  • He got injured early, so the more time missed the more it is on people's minds
  • A few lazy journalists put the first two points together and jumped to the conclusion he was injury prone
  • More lazy journalists saw the others and didn't fact check


Ilov80s said:
Also to be fair to Birkett, Ameer has been with the Lions for 2 years. He had shoulder surgery last offseason that cost him part of camp and Lisfranc surgery which basically cost him an entire season. It just so happened his shoulder injury happened at the end of the 2016 season. If it happened earlier, that could have been another season lost. So, from the perspective of his time in the NFL, Ameer has been hurt/recovering from being hurt a lot. 
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Actually, it wasn't a season ending injury.... I believe he got the injury in week 15 and was able to play through it for 2 more weeks.

 
FF Ninja said:
My theory:

  • He's small (but the same size as many work horse backs, I think I posted somewhere in here a bunch of guys with similar height/weight combos)
  • He got injured early, so the more time missed the more it is on people's minds
  • A few lazy journalists put the first two points together and jumped to the conclusion he was injury prone
  • More lazy journalists saw the others and didn't fact check


Actually, it wasn't a season ending injury.... I believe he got the injury in week 15 and was able to play through it for 2 more weeks.
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He hurt his shoulder in week 16 and he did play in week 17 which is crazy since the team wasn't playing for anything. I don't understand why you would have your highly drafted rookie RB play week 17 of a 7-9 season with a torn labrum. 

 
Ilov80s said:
He hurt his shoulder in week 16 and he did play in week 17 which is crazy since the team wasn't playing for anything. I don't understand why you would have your highly drafted rookie RB play week 17 of a 7-9 season with a torn labrum. 
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Ah ok, it was game 15, not week 15. Either way, not a season ending injury. What's funny is that I think Melvin Gordon has ended both of his seasons on the IR and yet nobody calls him injury prone. It's all about timing, I guess.

 
FF Ninja said:
Ah ok, it was game 15, not week 15. Either way, not a season ending injury. What's funny is that I think Melvin Gordon has ended both of his seasons on the IR and yet nobody calls him injury prone. It's all about timing, I guess.
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Ain't that the truth. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Ah ok, it was game 15, not week 15. Either way, not a season ending injury. What's funny is that I think Melvin Gordon has ended both of his seasons on the IR and yet nobody calls him injury prone. It's all about timing, I guess.
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His microfracture is extremely concerning to me for his longevity. I'd consider Gordon as one of, if not the most injury prone RB out there among the RB1s and 2s. The new Fragile Freddie. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
At one time Matt Stafford was also considered "injury prone".
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Now he is one of the true ironmen of the NFL with 96 consecutive games started. 

Dr. Dan said:
His microfracture is extremely concerning to me for his longevity. I'd consider Gordon as one of, if not the most injury prone RB out there among the RB1s and 2s. The new Fragile Freddie. 
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Another guy that did not deserve the tag injury prone. Not counting his final 2 years with the Patriots when he was a back-up/reserve player, Fred Taylor played in 80% of his potential games over an 11 year period. He averaged ~2 missed games a season which for a RB is decent. It just so happened that 23 of the 37 games Taylor missed in his career came during his 2nd, 3rd and 4th NFL seasons. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
His microfracture is extremely concerning to me for his longevity. I'd consider Gordon as one of, if not the most injury prone RB out there among the RB1s and 2s. The new Fragile Freddie. 
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Well, you are one of the few. Most people seem to love them some Gordon. And I agree the microfracture is concerning, but Reggie Bush had some of his best years after microfracture surgery. Just something to keep in mind. I think Kelce has had it, too, but different position.

Ilov80s said:
Now he is one of the true ironmen of the NFL with 96 consecutive games started. 

Another guy that did not deserve the tag injury prone. Not counting his final 2 years with the Patriots when he was a back-up/reserve player, Fred Taylor played in 80% of his potential games over an 11 year period. He averaged ~2 missed games a season which for a RB is decent. It just so happened that 23 of the 37 games Taylor missed in his career came during his 2nd, 3rd and 4th NFL seasons. 
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Remember when Gore was considered injury prone? Both ACLs torn in college... then had double shoulder surgery after light use as a rookie... then missed a few games every year and then, starting at age 28, six straight 16 game seasons.

 
FF Ninja said:
Well, you are one of the few. Most people seem to love them some Gordon. And I agree the microfracture is concerning, but Reggie Bush had some of his best years after microfracture surgery. Just something to keep in mind. I think Kelce has had it, too, but different position.

Remember when Gore was considered injury prone? Both ACLs torn in college... then had double shoulder surgery after light use as a rookie... then missed a few games every year and then, starting at age 28, six straight 16 game seasons.
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Agree. Kelce and Gordon have made me very much rethink the concept of microfracture being a death sentence. However, more concerned about longevity of the surgery being an actual fix. It's not designed to be a long term solution.... it's very much a short term solution to a really bad problem. Short term meaning years not months

 
Dr. Dan said:
Agree. Kelce and Gordon have made me very much rethink the concept of microfracture being a death sentence. However, more concerned about longevity of the surgery being an actual fix. It's not designed to be a long term solution.... it's very much a short term solution to a really bad problem. Short term meaning years not months
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Oh I agree and I know what MF is... which is why I was surprised Bush lasted as long as he did.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Wow. Interesting. 

I'd expect a Packer fan who pays casual attention to the Lions to get this wrong (myself), but not a long time Lions beat writer... 

Over/Under rushing yards at 850... I'm 50/50 on my expectations of Abdullah but at 850 I'd gladly take the over. Does Birkett do paypal? 

To get 851 yards Abdullah needs to have 198 attempts at 4.3 YPC (his career avg). He had 143 attempts as a rookie in a crowded backfield... And I firmly believe he will be higher than 4.3 YPC. What an odd prediction. 
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I listened to a podcast that talked about this. Birkett also predicted an over/under on something like 450 yards receiving. The podcast hosts laughed Birkett's projections off and used this as an example why beat writers shouldn't make projections. Of course they were laughing because of how ridiculously high they thought the numbers were. 

 
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Lions RBs coach David Walker confirmed Ameer Abdullah will be the Lions' feature back.

"Ameer's our guy. "Theo Riddick has his role, and then the other guys, they got to kind of fit where they fit and that’s how we’ll go," said Walker. The Lions are counting on a leap from Abdullah after having one of the worst rushing offenses in the league the last two years. They project for a more explosive run game with Abdullah healthy, but there's still questions over his workload and goal-line role. The Detroit Free Press doesn't consider Abdullah a lock for 200-plus carries.

Source:  

Detroit Free PressAug 2 - 6:46 PM
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Get back to me when he plays 5 games (as a 15-20 carry starter) without getting hurt. 

Does he have upside? Absolutely...and I have him on my bench in many a Dynasty League. Would I draft him in re-draft at his current ADP? Nope. That's what it comes down to. He has become a trendy "sneaky/value pick", which ironically ruined his value. 

 
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hoffman0001 said:
Get back to me when he plays 5 games (as a 15-20 carry starter) without getting hurt. 

Does he have upside? Absolutely...and I have him on my bench in many a Dynasty League. Would I draft him in re-draft at his current ADP? Nope. That's what it comes down to. He has become a trendy "sneaky/value pick", which ironically ruined his value. 
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Pretty much.

 
The Lions gave first-team goal line reps to RB Zach Zenner over Ameer Abdullah in practice on Friday.

The Lions continue to say Abdullah is their "featured back", yet with Theo Riddick bound to play occasionally on passing plays and Zenner taking red zone carries, saying Abdullah will be "featured" is a stretch. Abdullah is shaping up to be a risky pick in fantasy this season.

Source: Detroit Free Press 

Aug 5 - 9:21 AM
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The problem with high upside bench players is they never seem to hit that upside the weeks you need to start them. But keep them on the bench and you can be sure they will go off that week.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
The problem with high upside bench players is they never seem to hit that upside the weeks you need to start them. But keep them on the bench and you can be sure they will go off that week.
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Yeah.  It seems Abdullah is stuck in that place where you won't ever feel great starting him and he will blow up on your bench

 
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Leroy Hoard said:
The problem with high upside bench players is they never seem to hit that upside the weeks you need to start them. But keep them on the bench and you can be sure they will go off that week.
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You are confusing "high upside" with "boom-bust" 

Abdullah is a high upside bench player in that he could approach RB1 numbers if he runs away from his backfield competition - if he shows he's just too good to take off the field. A boom-bust player I'd use as an example this year would be Gillislee (IF he gets the goal line carries) - he'll likely have very little value on weeks where he doesn't score a TD or two since other player will monopolize the receptions and 3rd and long or 2 minute drill carries. The reason why Abdullah is not a boom-bust player is because you know he's going to get over 50% of the snaps and will have some targets every game, thus greatly decreasing his odds of putting up a total bust of a game.

 
32 Counter Pass said:
"With the pads on, the Lions spent one period working on their goal line offense and defense. Zach Zenner had two touchdown runs in four plays with the first-team offense - note to fantasy football players, Zenner was getting goal-line reps for the Lions"

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2017/08/04/detroit-lions-chad-johnson-training-camp/540072001/
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Luckily for Abdullah owners the Lions offense is never on the goal line ... so Zenner wont be a factor.

 
Ameer is potentially stuck in no-man's land. He is the best back on the team and the clear starter, but he isn't the GL back or the main pass receiving back. TDs and receptions are essential fantasy productivity. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Ameer is potentially stuck in no-man's land. He is the best back on the team and the clear starter, but he isn't the GL back or the main pass receiving back. TDs and receptions are essential fantasy productivity. 
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I tend to agree with this and won't have Abdullah on many of my squads but I do think there is a path to fantasy value which entails getting more receptions.  

Non ppr, his Lack of TDs give him too low of a ceiling IMHO.

 
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I see so many negatives here..

Hes had some trouble with his health

He's had some trouble with fumbles

Both Riddick and Zenner sap his floor/ceiling

DET have ranked 30th and 31st in rush attempts per game over the last 2 years

The OL is projected to be below average

He's going to have some big games this year because he's quite simply too talented not to but he's not someone I would want to lean on. At his current 5th round ADP there's essentially no way I touch him.

 
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