rockaction
Footballguy
Lying season?
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RB Ashton Jeanty, LV (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter elguapo07
- Start date
Lying season?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Does this matter whoever takes Jeanty?
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
Sorta feels like the Raiders just moved into the pole position to select Jeanty. All signs point to a “win now” approach with Las Vegas which means a RB now makes sense. You didn’t hire Pete Carroll, pay Max Crosby and then trade for Geno Smith just to be a middling team next season. I’d be shocked if Jeanty wasn’t the pick at 6.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, it sort of does. You want your 1.01 to be a consensus world beater; one that the NFL all agrees upon. You want to hear, "He's the number one! No doubt about it! Perfect prospect here!"
If Hampton goes first RB overall, you'd have to stop and think about everything given their size disparity and the fact that Jeanty didn't test at the combine, especially coming from a non-traditional not-Power 5 school.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
I guess it would, but I legitimately can't see anyone NOT taking Jeanty #1.... At worst, taking anything they can get to move down a spot and take Hampton (or Jeanty, if for some reason #1 goes Hampton).
I don't know who will be the better pro RB, they're both destined to be good/very good, imo. But I can't see a world where, even despite landing spot, Jeanty doesn't go 1
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Would love to see him in Hou, or KC if he makes it that far in the draft
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't see it, either, but if a team takes Hampton and Jeanty falls into the twenties it will give me just that bit of pause. But I also don't like 5' 8 1/2". That's almost—almost—outlier status, and I am aware of all the backs that aren't 5'10" that have made it. But this guy isn't even 5'9", which means that 211 lbs. is being carried by a frame that puts him in a very high BMI category that also comes with a warning. A BMI of 31.2 is just a touch out of the range you're looking for.
Please, I know people say size doesn't matter at RB, but it does (just a little).
this thread since I’ll be taking him at 1.01 in May, barring a tragedy.
Faust
MVP
The 33rd Team
"Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in at least 7 years, I think he's better than Bijan. I think he's more NFL-ready than Bijan."
@mikerenner_ explains why he thinks there's still a sizable gap between Jeanty and Omarion Hampton
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Damn you underselling yourself, with a quarter horse like that, shhhhhh I’m thinking at least EIGHT!
You disappointing me…
Tex
Faust
MVP
PFF College
Ashton Jeanty is the Highest Graded Running Back in the PFF Era️
rockaction
Footballguy
No testing whatsoever. I have the 1.01 in a ten-team dynasty league. I am chagrined that he didn't run at all. For sure. Especially coming from a non-Power 5. I want at least some confirmation, although the MPH trackers that said he had like a bunch of runs over 20 MPH put my mind at ease. Here's a link
College Football's Fastest Players: Ashton Jeanty the King
Using advanced player-tracking software, we take a look at the fastest players who dominated the highlight-reels during the 2024 college football season.
collegefootballnetwork.com
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rockaction
Footballguy
He didn't test at all. That settles it. I'm picking Judkins.
(Said nobody anywhere in the process.)
On the other hand, Hampton . . .
(Said nobody anywhere in the process.)
On the other hand, Hampton . . .
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
yeah, sorry.. kid looked great against lower tier schools... then was destroyed by Penn in the playoffs; and he didn't look too special. Not doing any drills is a huge red lag
Didn’t look too special but still topped 100 yards against a great defense, when everyone on the field knew he was getting the ball.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
30 attempts for 104 yards, yeah that wasn't good. And yes, he did not look special THAT GAME; no generational explosiveness, no game breaking missed tackles... just a very avg day.
and I hope everyone is correct and I'm just judgmental. I have 1.01 in a league and I'm 99% sure I'm taking him; its just that type of yr. No one else is really popping out unless a Hampton goes to the Chiefs... and the offers for 1.01 aren't really sock knocking off this time around
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yep, with that one game you should definitely move off the 1.01
rockaction
Footballguy
The Chiefs are no longer the team you want Hampton going to. At all. I watch the Chiefs darn near every week because Mahomes is my dynasty QB in one league and it’s just different now. They don’t move the ball downfield at all like they used to and their offensive line stinks. They’re a mediocre offense at best now.
Jeanty has been clocked all year. I want to say it matters that he didn’t test, but I think he was measured in a million different ways, including GPS MPH, and he rocked every measurement but his height measurement, and that should not knock him off the 1.01.
I have the 1.01 in one league and as adamant as I usually am about testing and not taking guys who don’t test or test terribly, he’s the clear choice here.
I haven’t gotten any offers to know how robust the market is. It can’t be Bijan’s market, which was a stupid market, but it’s probably better than Breece’s at this point. Or at least comparable.
But he’s the 1.01 unless you really, really love Hampton (because it ain’t Tet McMillan or Hunter or Henderson or Judkins or Burden). This should be a draft dominated by RBs, IMO.
1.01 Jeanty
1.02 Hampton
1.03 Henderson
1.04 Judkins
then Hunter or McMillan
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Yep, with that one game you should definitely move off the 1.01
like I said... I'm taking my share
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I have in one DEVY and have the 1.01 in a standard dynasty, so I'll have 2 shares. I hope he doesn't bust, because I'll have egg on my face considering all the RB talent in this draft.Yep, with that one game you should definitely move off the 1.01
like I said... I'm taking my share
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Would think it’s extremely unlikely that he busts. Too many great attributes (vision, patience, short burst, great balance and long speed)I have in one DEVY and have the 1.01 in a standard dynasty, so I'll have 2 shares. I hope he doesn't bust, because I'll have egg on my face considering all the RB talent in this draft.Yep, with that one game you should definitely move off the 1.01
like I said... I'm taking my share
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not comparing the players, but I'm sure there are fantasy players with Trent Richardson nightmares out there.Would think it’s extremely unlikely that he busts. Too many great attributes (vision, patience, short burst, great balance and long speed)I have in one DEVY and have the 1.01 in a standard dynasty, so I'll have 2 shares. I hope he doesn't bust, because I'll have egg on my face considering all the RB talent in this draft.Yep, with that one game you should definitely move off the 1.01
like I said... I'm taking my share
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Any questions about Jeanty are nitpicks you could have for any RB of the past 6-7 years and/or due to draft prep fatigue. He's overwhelmingly considered one of the best prospects since Barkley per consensus. Zierline and PFF have him rated as such, and the list of the others who also do the same goes on for days. The only other rookie RB prospect who even gets mentioned as in his tier is Bijan.
Leaning away from real football and towards fantasy; his contact balance is considered one of the best in that time. He's a 3 down back. He checks all the boxes for the receiving game. This year has some of the best RB landing spots we've seen in a long time. He will be a lock for a top 10 draft pick which has a wildly high hit rate for fantasy. Of the past decade, without even crediting him for the fact he has one of the highest sample sizes of all these RBs because of his amount of touches, he is still 2nd in missed tackles forced %, first in yards after contact %, 3rd in breakaway %, etc. etc. etc. He's clocked 22mph in game several times, and despite not running the 40 his profile is already getting dinged for it as most every site is putting him at 4.55. I'd bet a paycheck he could put up a faster time than that, which would only better his profile. He was squatting 605lbs and power cleaning 340lbs until the coaching staff made him stop increasing his weight out of fear of injury. Despite being a physical powerhouse, he is deft at avoiding unnecessary contact or lowering his head to ram obstacles and knows how to get hit without suffering injuries. The only knock anyone ever has for him is SoS, and anyone who doesn't then look at all the stats that adjust for that should because, spoiler alert, he still dominates in all the adjusted/expectation stats.
He's more of a can't miss prospect that just about any RB we've seen in a very long time. I understand people get bored, but it's really silly to even talk about at this point. IMO if you're still even questioning it, you haven't done your own research.
Leaning away from real football and towards fantasy; his contact balance is considered one of the best in that time. He's a 3 down back. He checks all the boxes for the receiving game. This year has some of the best RB landing spots we've seen in a long time. He will be a lock for a top 10 draft pick which has a wildly high hit rate for fantasy. Of the past decade, without even crediting him for the fact he has one of the highest sample sizes of all these RBs because of his amount of touches, he is still 2nd in missed tackles forced %, first in yards after contact %, 3rd in breakaway %, etc. etc. etc. He's clocked 22mph in game several times, and despite not running the 40 his profile is already getting dinged for it as most every site is putting him at 4.55. I'd bet a paycheck he could put up a faster time than that, which would only better his profile. He was squatting 605lbs and power cleaning 340lbs until the coaching staff made him stop increasing his weight out of fear of injury. Despite being a physical powerhouse, he is deft at avoiding unnecessary contact or lowering his head to ram obstacles and knows how to get hit without suffering injuries. The only knock anyone ever has for him is SoS, and anyone who doesn't then look at all the stats that adjust for that should because, spoiler alert, he still dominates in all the adjusted/expectation stats.
He's more of a can't miss prospect that just about any RB we've seen in a very long time. I understand people get bored, but it's really silly to even talk about at this point. IMO if you're still even questioning it, you haven't done your own research.
joey
Footballguy
I resisted typing his name to not jinx Jeanty.Not comparing the players, but I'm sure there are fantasy players with Trent Richardson nightmares out there.Would think it’s extremely unlikely that he busts. Too many great attributes (vision, patience, short burst, great balance and long speed)I have in one DEVY and have the 1.01 in a standard dynasty, so I'll have 2 shares. I hope he doesn't bust, because I'll have egg on my face considering all the RB talent in this draft.Yep, with that one game you should definitely move off the 1.01
like I said... I'm taking my share
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Any player can bust for a number of reasons.
As long as he tries........I think his bust potential is lower than anyone else at RB in the draft.
So there's that
As long as he tries........I think his bust potential is lower than anyone else at RB in the draft.
So there's that
N Zone
Footballguy
From "journalist" Hondo Carpenter:
"As you know, coming into this the running back out of Boise [Ashton Jeanty] he was considered the number one back, and Omarion Hampton was number two," said Carpenter. "I can now tell you that on the bulk of the people I spoke to ... I would say there are more who like Omarion Hampton, who I told you was the number two guy."
"Jeanty had some problems with fumbling, and when they measure at the combine from the wrist to the shoulder because that is where you snug the football in."
"I had an executive from an NFC team tell me at dinner that the measurements of Jeanty was smaller there, and they think that may have something to do with the fumbling. I heard that from more than one person by the way."
"With Jeanty that was a concern. I think everybody still thinks he is a great back but in the NFL he is going to be facing a much bigger level of competition a much higher and stronger level of competition. And if there are fumbling issues that you cannot fix ... That issue is now being looked at with Jeanty. Is that something you can fix with how you hold the ball? But I can tell you this now, Omarion Hampton now has overtaken him as the top guy."
-----
My contribution:
That first article is ridiculous.
Ashton Jeanty
2022 0 fumbles - 156 carries
2023 2 fumbles - 220 carries
2024 0 fumbles - 374 carries
Harjiran
Footballguy
Jeanty looks special to me but this draft is so loaded at RB that I think there are scenarios where he gets leapfrogged by someone based on landing spot - e.g., Jeanty to the Giants or Panthers would ding his value a little in my opinion, with the nightmare scenario being a team like the Lions or Philly moving up to take him if he slips down the draft board some. Or worse, and I'm sorry for even putting this out into the universe, the Jets selecting Jeanty. Whereas Hampton landing with the Chiefs, Commanders or Chargers might give me pause enough to consider taking him at 1.01 instead of Jeanty. Not sure he's a can't-miss prospect who succeeds in any situation.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I heard on some podcast he had like 120 yards after contact (because he got hit so often and by so many guys in the backfield) but all I can find online is a season total of 1970 and a pre-bowl total of 1889, which is only...81 yards after contact.
That's wildly impressive to me.
Lately his great character has been mentioned a lot.
There's really only "lie to yourself" reasons that he isn't the #1 pick.
You list the reasons bad teams do not draft a great player and those are the same things people are writing and saying.
Generational backs are non-misses.
Who is complaining of Bijan now?
The bad Titans leaned on Henry most recently and throughout his career. What is their record before and after? How many times have people questioned the Titans roster talent during that time?
It's really getting ridiculous.
Backs may be a dime a dozen in today's market but not Saquan, Bijan, or Henry
There's really only "lie to yourself" reasons that he isn't the #1 pick.
You list the reasons bad teams do not draft a great player and those are the same things people are writing and saying.
Generational backs are non-misses.
Who is complaining of Bijan now?
The bad Titans leaned on Henry most recently and throughout his career. What is their record before and after? How many times have people questioned the Titans roster talent during that time?
It's really getting ridiculous.
Backs may be a dime a dozen in today's market but not Saquan, Bijan, or Henry
rockaction
Footballguy
People really need to stop thinking the Chiefs have had a good offense the past two years, or, if they acknowledge that the offense has ground to a halt the past two years, that it's the running back's fault somehow. It's neither a good offense nor is it the current RBs fault.
KC is not a dream place for Hampton or any RB. First, the incoming guy would have to beat out Pacheco and keep him off of the field. You might think that'll be easy. I can guarantee you it won't be, at least for the first half of the first year (we're not drafting for that, I know, but it's always a consideration to look at whether the other back is signed through next year or the year after). Remember Javonte and Melvin Gordon, the rookie and the guy who was much more on the downward slope of his career than Pacheco is? Javonte didn't overtake him ever, really. When he sort of did and was chomping at the bit to pull away from Gordon, he tore up his knee never to be the same again.
Anyway, all I'm saying is KC is one of the worst teams Hampton could go to. Same with Henderson. I say this jokingly: Stop putting bad juju out there regarding KC and running backs in the first or second round. Fantasy-wise, it's bad news for everybody involved.
oldmanhawkins
Footballguy
I think Henderson to the Chiefs would be interesting just because he’s a bit reminiscent of Westbrook and he’d bring a new dynamic. I also don’t think the 2023 & 2024 Chiefs offense is the offense they aspire to be. Moving on from Tyreek was a set back (for fantasy anyway) but I believe Andy will get things sorted out.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is a good point. I just don't like their offensive line, their receivers, or an aging Kelce. I think that's the reason they ran the ball so much this year. Let's see what they do in the draft before I make grand pronouncements or come to a firm conclusion.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I agree. They missed a McKinnon-like player as a chess piece, and Henderson could provide that spark they need from the backfield. They have a variety of issues on offense that they need to figure out (oline, Rice issue, Kelce age, etc) but having an electric multi-dimensional back would seemingly be a good fit.
Harjiran
Footballguy
I get what you're trying to say but we'll have to disagree on the Chiefs not being a good offense, or in decline or whatever - their offense was good enough to take them to the SB this year and going forward I expect the front office to reload and rebuild around Mahomes, who should have many peak years left in the tank. Good teams retool around their core players after a down year, and that's what I'm expecting from KC, starting with this draft. So I'll place a bet on KC's track record of offensive success every time. Pacheco cannot seem to stay healthy and is in the final year of his contract and I don't think he has ever been in the same league as Melvin Gordon, plus Javonte looked good with DEN until he got injured, honestly I'm not really seeing the parallel there. Call me crazy but I prefer Hampton in KC (or WAS or LAC) over Jeanty with either team in NY. The Chiefs were just one of the teams I originally listed as being good landing spots for Hampton. I could be wrong of course, won't be the first time but I try to proceed with what makes sense to me and sometimes this puts me at odds with the consensus. I'm okay with that.
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I think Dylan Sampson a round later could fill that need just fine for KC.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
For my own SA, how many RBs as totted as Jeanty is do as little as he did at both the Combine and Pro Day while becoming a very successful Running Back.
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Todd Gurley did nothing as he was injured.
It just doesn't matter anymore. There is no hiding for any of these guys with on field mph data and the like.
Just like MHJ last year, Jeanty's people have probably asked all the teams in the range he is expected to go if they need him to do any testing, they've likely all said they do not care, and he's not done any.
The number one statistical indicator for fantasy success is draft capital. If the testing isn't going to affect where he gets taken then forget about it.
It just doesn't matter anymore. There is no hiding for any of these guys with on field mph data and the like.
Just like MHJ last year, Jeanty's people have probably asked all the teams in the range he is expected to go if they need him to do any testing, they've likely all said they do not care, and he's not done any.
The number one statistical indicator for fantasy success is draft capital. If the testing isn't going to affect where he gets taken then forget about it.
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