RB Ashton Jeanty, LV (3 Viewers)

[pinkstapler]

Concern For Top RB Prospect After the NFL Combine?

Las Vegas Raiders are doing their due diligence with one 2025 NFL Draft prospect that they need to stay away from in Round 1

From "journalist" Hondo Carpenter:
"As you know, coming into this the running back out of Boise [Ashton Jeanty] he was considered the number one back, and Omarion Hampton was number two," said Carpenter. "I can now tell you that on the bulk of the people I spoke to ... I would say there are more who like Omarion Hampton, who I told you was the number two guy."

"Jeanty had some problems with fumbling, and when they measure at the combine from the wrist to the shoulder because that is where you snug the football in."

"I had an executive from an NFC team tell me at dinner that the measurements of Jeanty was smaller there, and they think that may have something to do with the fumbling. I heard that from more than one person by the way."

"With Jeanty that was a concern. I think everybody still thinks he is a great back but in the NFL he is going to be facing a much bigger level of competition a much higher and stronger level of competition. And if there are fumbling issues that you cannot fix ... That issue is now being looked at with Jeanty. Is that something you can fix with how you hold the ball? But I can tell you this now, Omarion Hampton now has overtaken him as the top guy."

-----

My contribution:

That first article is ridiculous.

Ashton Jeanty

2022 0 fumbles - 156 carries
2023 2 fumbles - 220 carries
2024 0 fumbles - 374 carries

Vegas odds on the NFC team mentioned here being the Bears? As Ben Johnson puts out some tabloid level tin foil hat conspiracy theory about arm length and fumbles hoping the Raiders bite and he can grab Jeanty at 10? Because he realized his best RB is Roschon Johnson, had no other option then to resign Travis Homer, and is counting the days till he can jettison D'Andre "Mr. Bounce it outside" Swift from yet another team. That's my guess at least.

 

[eighsse2]

Concern For Top RB Prospect After the NFL Combine?

Las Vegas Raiders are doing their due diligence with one 2025 NFL Draft prospect that they need to stay away from in Round 1

From "journalist" Hondo Carpenter:
"As you know, coming into this the running back out of Boise [Ashton Jeanty] he was considered the number one back, and Omarion Hampton was number two," said Carpenter. "I can now tell you that on the bulk of the people I spoke to ... I would say there are more who like Omarion Hampton, who I told you was the number two guy."

"Jeanty had some problems with fumbling, and when they measure at the combine from the wrist to the shoulder because that is where you snug the football in."

"I had an executive from an NFC team tell me at dinner that the measurements of Jeanty was smaller there, and they think that may have something to do with the fumbling. I heard that from more than one person by the way."

"With Jeanty that was a concern. I think everybody still thinks he is a great back but in the NFL he is going to be facing a much bigger level of competition a much higher and stronger level of competition. And if there are fumbling issues that you cannot fix ... That issue is now being looked at with Jeanty. Is that something you can fix with how you hold the ball? But I can tell you this now, Omarion Hampton now has overtaken him as the top guy."

-----

My contribution:

That first article is ridiculous.

Ashton Jeanty

2022 0 fumbles - 156 carries
2023 2 fumbles - 220 carries
2024 0 fumbles - 374 carries

Vegas odds on the NFC team mentioned here being the Bears? As Ben Johnson puts out some tabloid level tin foil hat conspiracy theory about arm length and fumbles hoping the Raiders bite and he can grab Jeanty at 10? Because he realized his best RB is Roschon Johnson, had no other option then to resign Travis Homer, and is counting the days till he can jettison D'Andre "Mr. Bounce it outside" Swift from yet another team. That's my guess at least.

*eighsse stands silently nearby the conversation, fuming, with one eye twitching, wearing his "President of the D'Andre Swift Fan Club" nametag*

 

[massraider]

For my own SA, how many RBs as totted as Jeanty is do as little as he did at both the Combine and Pro Day while becoming a very successful Running Back.
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test

There are players I would agree with you. Cam Skattebo, for instance.

Aside from actual injury, two kinds of guys who don't work out at the the combine or Pro Days: Guys who are hiding something, and guys with nothing to gain. Jeanty is the latter.

 

[Faust]

Ted Nguyen
Ashton Jeanty’s ability to maximize every run is special

https://x.com/fb_filmanalysis/status/1906411787026915429?s=61

 

[Faust]

Ari Meirov
#Raiders GM John Spytek: “My son has made it no secret that if we don’t pick Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 that he’s walking out of the family and he's gonna find somebody else. … He basically told Mark Davis if my dad doesn’t take him he’s doing a bad job.”

https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/1907228051013853656?s=61

 

[BigTex]

This kid could be pulling a Deion Sanders! This kid is special.

Glad my Dynasty draft is after the second preseason game.

Just saying,

Tex

 

[menobrown]

For my own SA, how many RBs as totted as Jeanty is do as little as he did at both the Combine and Pro Day while becoming a very successful Running Back.
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test

There are players I would agree with you. Cam Skattebo, for instance.

Aside from actual injury, two kinds of guys who don't work out at the the combine or Pro Days: Guys who are hiding something, and guys with nothing to gain. Jeanty is the latter.

I think he's more the bolded and does not want to officially clock a time that could hurt his stock.

I'd still have no hesitation drafting him at 1.1, even if he went to a crummy situation like the Saints. But I think if he was confident he'd clock well he'd have tested.

 

[JohnnyU]

For my own SA, how many RBs as totted as Jeanty is do as little as he did at both the Combine and Pro Day while becoming a very successful Running Back.
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test

There are players I would agree with you. Cam Skattebo, for instance.

Aside from actual injury, two kinds of guys who don't work out at the the combine or Pro Days: Guys who are hiding something, and guys with nothing to gain. Jeanty is the latter.

I think he's more the bolded and does not want to officially clock a time that could hurt his stock.

I'd still have no hesitation drafting him at 1.1, even if he went to a crummy situation like the Saints. But I think if he was confident he'd clock well he'd have tested.

Is Ashton Jeanty a trap? Choosing not to run at the combine or pro day leaves us trusting NFL evaluators who constantly miss on prospects, even first rounders. Playing in a weak conference against lesser competition could be overlooked if he would have put himself out there and show us more. Do we just take the word of these evaluators? From what I've seen, someone like Omarion Hampton looks like he was built in a lab. The perfect looking RB. Can you blame someone to trading back to 1.02 - 1.04 and pickup additional 1sts? Or are you too scared of what you perceive Jeanty being to do that? Remember Rashaad Penny? Of course Jeanty is hyped way more than Penny, but he also played in the same conference.

 

[massraider]

Everyone plugging in Jeanty to Vegas, I am open to arguments about why NE and JAC should draft him.

I'm not at ALL convinced he's making to 6.

Once Carter and Hunter are gone.....

 

[cdclopper]

For my own SA, how many RBs as totted as Jeanty is do as little as he did at both the Combine and Pro Day while becoming a very successful Running Back.
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test

There are players I would agree with you. Cam Skattebo, for instance.

Aside from actual injury, two kinds of guys who don't work out at the the combine or Pro Days: Guys who are hiding something, and guys with nothing to gain. Jeanty is the latter.

I think he's more the bolded and does not want to officially clock a time that could hurt his stock.

I'd still have no hesitation drafting him at 1.1, even if he went to a crummy situation like the Saints. But I think if he was confident he'd clock well he'd have tested.

Is Ashton Jeanty a trap? Choosing not to run at the combine or pro day leaves us trusting NFL evaluators who constantly miss on prospects, even first rounders. Playing in a weak conference against lesser competition could be overlooked if he would have put himself out there and show us more. Do we just take the word of these evaluators? From what I've seen, someone like Omarion Hampton looks like he was built in a lab. The perfect looking RB. Can you blame someone to trading back to 1.02 - 1.04 and pickup additional 1sts? Or are you too scared of what you perceive Jeanty being to do that? Remember Rashaad Penny? Of course Jeanty is hyped way more than Penny, but he also played in the same conference.

I wonder how much these testing measurements have improved the whole process in the first place.

 

[rockaction]

So is his not testing hurting him and he's got something to hide or is he going in the top five? Which is it, mass? Is he fooling everybody and still going top five because of FOMO and groupthink? Not sure I get where everybody is going here.

Normally I'm the guy that wants guys to test, but I'm not as bothered because of the GPS readings they had on him all year. I think massraider's second part of the "not testing" clause is what is going on. There's no need to test when you're number three on Athletic's big board. Nowhere for an RB to go but down no matter how you test so why do it? You're not leapfrogging the EDGE that makes everybody a sucker (even though I'd argue he's more Chase Young than Nick Bosa) or the generational CB/WR, so don't bother putting yourself in any jeopardy. That's what is going on here.

 

[elguapo07]

Everyone plugging in Jeanty to Vegas, I am open to arguments about why NE and JAC should draft him.

I'm not at ALL convinced he's making to 6.

Once Carter and Hunter are gone.....

I have some exposure for this to happen

 

[Chaka]

For my own SA, how many RBs as totted as Jeanty is do as little as he did at both the Combine and Pro Day while becoming a very successful Running Back.
Call it draft jitters but it just gives hesitation to me that he didn't want to test

He's the unquestioned #1 RB in this draft. He could only hurt himself by testing.

Aside from actual injury, two kinds of guys who don't work out at the the combine or Pro Days: Guys who are hiding something, and guys with nothing to gain. Jeanty is the latter.

I think he's more the bolded and does not want to officially clock a time that could hurt his stock.

I'd still have no hesitation drafting him at 1.1, even if he went to a crummy situation like the Saints. But I think if he was confident he'd clock well he'd have tested.

I agree about this part. His game speed is verified ten times over so even if he runs a 4.3 he hasn't improved his draft stock so why risk an off day?

Off days happen. Even to elite athletes

Is Ashton Jeanty a trap? Choosing not to run at the combine or pro day leaves us trusting NFL evaluators who constantly miss on prospects, even first rounders. Playing in a weak conference against lesser competition could be overlooked if he would have put himself out there and show us more.

More than everything he has put in tape the last three years? WTH? Do you want him to deliver your DoorDash in under 4.4 too? Hang your Christmas lights without using a ladder?

So is his not testing hurting him and he's got something to hide or is he going in the top five? Which is it, mass? Is he fooling everybody and still going top five because of FOMO and groupthink? Not sure I get where everybody is going here.

Normally I'm the guy that wants guys to test, but I'm not as bothered because of the GPS readings they had on him all year. I think massraider's second part of the "not testing" clause is what is going on. There's no need to test when you're number three on Athletic's big board. Nowhere for an RB to go but down no matter how you test so why do it? You're not leapfrogging the EDGE that makes everybody a sucker (even though I'd argue he's more Chase Young than Nick Bosa) or the generational CB/WR, so don't bother putting yourself in any jeopardy. That's what is going on here.

BINGO!

 

[menobrown]

I wonder how much these testing measurements have improved the whole process in the first place.

Normally I'm the guy that wants guys to test, but I'm not as bothered because of the GPS readings they had on him all year.

Well let me put it this way.

Daniel Jeremiah tweeted this a few days ago:

Outside of the covid year, I don't remember a time when this many guys refused to run a 40. Also, some teams aren't as sold on GPS game data as others. What does that mean...scouts/coaches evaluating film has never been more important.

Next when Tet ran a fairly slow 40 we saw Jeremiah send out tweets highlighting how rare it is for a WR to run over 4.5 and still go in the top 15.

If DJ thinks it has that much potential impact on a WR, a more premium position, I'm of the opinion a potential slow 40 would make Jeanty's odds of being a top 10 pick more difficult.

As I mentioned Jeremiah's tweets about how rare it is for a WR to run over 4.5 and go top 15 it's the same thing for RB's. Does not mean the NFL does not think you will be good, just might mean they don't view you as special enough at a non-premium position to go that high.


If you back 13 years(I just used that number to cover my duration since I've been playing dynasty, not cherry picking) only two RB's who did not run a sub 4.5 40 went in the top 10. One of those, Gurley, did not run since he was coming off an ACL. The other was Fournette who posted a 4.51 at 240 pounds. The only other RB to run over 4.5 to go top 15 was Melvin Gordon, who ran a 4.52 and went 15th.

Estimates don't mean much but if you look up Jeanty's 40 time you see stuff like people predicting 4.48. Again that means nothing except it's in a close enough range where it's feasible Jeanty could run slower then 4.5. He'd know, and fact he's not running is telling to me.


No doubt he's going top 15 and will be RB1 but that's beside the point. The real point is the difference between pick 6 and pick 12 is $11m.

Bottom line to me is him choosing to not run is him trying to maximize his draft stock and he feels the best way to do hide or not have an offical 40.

 

[rockaction]

Bottom line to me is him choosing to not run is him trying to maximize his draft stock and he feels the best way to do hide or not have an offical 40.

We agree. It’s the motive we disagree on. I don’t think he has anything to hide but he can’t increase his stock and there’s nowhere to go but down. Why would you volunteer to run on the very off chance you had a bad day? He might “know” that he almost always runs a 4.38 and still not run because there’s no benefit to running.

So we really disagree on his motive and we’ll never know for sure whether he’s hiding a 4.48 or if he usually runs a 4.40 and just has zero—and I mean absolute zero—incentive to put in the effort to test. Thats not necessarily hiding, rather, it’s just refusal to disclose.

 

[rockaction]

I’d rather he tested, frankly, but the only way the league can get voluntary compliance with this stuff is to start bypassing guys in the draft for guys who did test. That wouldn’t upset me at all. It’s just unlikely to happen because they think the GPS and the tape and advanced stats suffice in this case.

 

[SayWhat?]

He might also not be testing because he has a guarantee from a team that picks high enough that he’s satisfied with where he has literally no upside to working out (I.e. top 6 to Raiders, etc).

 

[ghostguy123]

He might also not be testing because he has a guarantee from a team that picks high enough that he’s satisfied with where he has literally no upside to working out (I.e. top 6 to Raiders, etc).

Why would any player trust a team who says that?

 

[SayWhat?]

He might also not be testing because he has a guarantee from a team that picks high enough that he’s satisfied with where he has literally no upside to working out (I.e. top 6 to Raiders, etc).

Why would any player trust a team who says that?

Because these agents represent more than one player and have immense power behind the scenes, so burning an agents player by telling a player that and not following through would be bad business?

 

[menobrown]

Bottom line to me is him choosing to not run is him trying to maximize his draft stock and he feels the best way to do hide or not have an offical 40.

We agree. It’s the motive we disagree on. I don’t think he has anything to hide but he can’t increase his stock and there’s nowhere to go but down. Why would you volunteer to run on the very off chance you had a bad day? He might “know” that he almost always runs a 4.38 and still not run because there’s no benefit to running.

So we really disagree on his motive and we’ll never know for sure whether he’s hiding a 4.48 or if he usually runs a 4.40 and just has zero—and I mean absolute zero—incentive to put in the effort to test. Thats not necessarily hiding, rather, it’s just refusal to disclose.

You may be right but I don't know, feel like if he could run well he could solidify or improve his draft stock and he's got concerns he can't.

 

[menobrown]

Everyone plugging in Jeanty to Vegas, I am open to arguments about why NE and JAC should draft him.

I take it you listened to the Athletics Podcast yesterday?

 

[massraider]

Everyone plugging in Jeanty to Vegas, I am open to arguments about why NE and JAC should draft him.

I take it you listened to the Athletics Podcast yesterday?

I have not, but I'm not surprised the argument is being made.

If a person compares players as prospects, there's 3 of them all by themselves, right? Assuming Ward goes 1st, getting one of the three best players in the draft at any point after that is a great move, far as I am concerned. Hunter and Carter are mocked over Jeanty because of positional value, and I'm pretty sure they both will go in front of him.

I agree in the abstract about team building, and positional value, and the analytics. I follow that stuff pretty well, and agree with all of it.

But in a year like this, where there is depth and decent players at important positions, but it's not top heavy, I think the argument Draft Good Players needs to trump positional value. Just take the stud. Get a special player. To use my team as an example, Brock Bowers wasn't considered a need. They took the special player.

Anyway, it seems to me that for Jeanty to get to Vegas, then the Pats, or the Jags, or Giants would need to draft a player not as highly rated as Jeanty. People are mocking lesser players in the top 5, because RB.

The arguments made for why LV should draft him easily apply to those teams. And everyone's opinion that Jeanty's floor is Vegas is really only based on mocks everyone has been reading.

 

[menobrown]

The arguments made for why LV should draft him easily apply to those teams. And everyone's opinion that Jeanty's floor is Vegas is really only based on mocks everyone has been reading.

I can't rule the Jags out at 5, but I'm would everyone else and in top 4 and would close to turning off the lights on the Jags.

Giants will have Carter, Hunter or Sanders. They are out IMO.

I think the team building philosophy of b2b years of plumping both a highly drafted rookie QB and rookie RB behind arguably the least talented OL in the league is something the Patriots just won't consider.

The Jags are in play IMO but again barely, would not be as shocking at ATL taking Penix but would be more shocking to me then say the Lions taking Gibbs at 12. Their head coach just got an awesome season out of a 5th round pick. Gladstone coming over from the Rams where they took a RB most years he was with them but the highest at pick 52, and all 3 years he was their scouting director they took a RB but used a third, 5th and 6th on them. I put them in play because it's not impossible they say this guy is special, he'll help Trevor, quality of other players, etc,etc. Just seems like a longshot.

The only reason I don't think the Raiders at 6 are a lock to draft him is Chip Kelly. Mostert as the starting RB is a joke at his age. They can't be more apparent they will be drafting their starting RB and they probably have very good reason to think Jeanty is theirs if they want him. But I think there is a chance Kelly loves his Ohio St RB's and they'd know they could reasonably expect to get at least one of them in round 2.

Still I get why everyone mocks Raiders to Jeanty. I would and I'd other then Cam Ward to Titans at 1.1 there is no other player I feel more comfortable about getting correct then mocking Jeanty to the Raiders at 6. Would you say the same?

 

[menobrown]

One thing to add to that post above is I could see a scenario where a team traded up to 4 or 5 to leapfrog the Raiders for him. It's so rare to trade up that high for a RB but that's IMO more likely and possible then NE or the Jags actaully drafting him.

 

[massraider]

Put much more succinctly:

Who do I pound the table for in NE or JAX over Jeanty?

I don't see an obvious name

 

[Instinctive]

One thing to add to that post above is I could see a scenario where a team traded up to 4 or 5 to leapfrog the Raiders for him. It's so rare to trade up that high for a RB but that's IMO more likely and possible then NE or the Jags actaully drafting him.

That would be insane. NFL GMs still do some dumb things but that would be mind blowing.

 

[massraider]

https://x.com/scoutdnfl/status/1908183448264601688?t=7Unh0ah3VRm-s4ATZMWylA&s=19

If this guy hits, I could see it

 

[MAC_32]

I get that he'll go sooner, but I don't think he makes any sense until Chicago and even then I still need to squint.

 

[Faust]

Ashton Jeanty to NFL GMs: It's tackle football, 'I'd draft the guy they can't tackle'

 

[Faust]

NFL on ESPN
.@JFowlerESPN says the Jacksonville Jaguars could be a sleeper to pick Ashton Jeanty at No. 5

https://x.com/espnnfl/status/1913337295354183919?s=61

 

[Faust]

Raiders' John Spytek on potentially drafting Ashton Jeanty: 'Idea is to add elite players at any position'

 

[Faust]

Brian Baldinger
.@BroncoSportsFB @AshtonJeanty2 @dallascowboys if I were the Cowboys I would do everything & anything to trade up to draft this star. He is going to be the OROY! Take it to the bank. #nfldraft #cowboys @MicahhParsons11 #BaldysBreakdowns

https://x.com/baldynfl/status/1914004777408545024?s=61

 

[Faust]

Ben Devine
According to @AdamSchefter intel today: “There are multiple personnel people who believe the #Bears are praying that Jeanty slips to them at No. 10.” #NFLDraft

https://x.com/chicago_nfl/status/1914279841999868035?s=61

 

[jumper]

Jeanty is going to go to a team which won't even sniff the Super Bowl. Almost no teams go deep in the playoffs using a RB with high draft capital whose team won a Super Bowl while still being on the team which drafted him. Fournette seems to be the only exception at the NFL 1.04 pick, and it's not like he was the reason why the Bucs won it (Ronald Jones was certainly good enough to win the SB with Brady at the helm). Which begs the question why bad teams like the Raiders or Giants still keep pissing away premium draft capital on running backs? Even if Jeanty was Barry Sanders 2.0, the original Barry didn't help the Lions win nor will Jeanty help the Raiders.

 

[kyoun1e]

Brian Baldinger
.@BroncoSportsFB @AshtonJeanty2 @dallascowboys if I were the Cowboys I would do everything & anything to trade up to draft this star. He is going to be the OROY! Take it to the bank. #nfldraft #cowboys @MicahhParsons11 #BaldysBreakdowns

https://x.com/baldynfl/status/1914004777408545024?s=61

Baldy tweeting a blockbuster trade in the top 5.

NE swaps 4 to Dallas and somehow M. Parsons involved?

 

[Faust]

Will the Jaguars pick RB Ashton Jeanty No. 5 overall?

 

[Instinctive]

Jeanty is going to go to a team which won't even sniff the Super Bowl. Almost no teams go deep in the playoffs using a RB with high draft capital whose team won a Super Bowl while still being on the team which drafted him. Fournette seems to be the only exception at the NFL 1.04 pick, and it's not like he was the reason why the Bucs won it (Ronald Jones was certainly good enough to win the SB with Brady at the helm). Which begs the question why bad teams like the Raiders or Giants still keep pissing away premium draft capital on running backs? Even if Jeanty was Barry Sanders 2.0, the original Barry didn't help the Lions win nor will Jeanty help the Raiders.

Fournette was drafted by Jacksonville, he's not an exception either.

 

[MAC_32]

Jeanty is going to go to a team which won't even sniff the Super Bowl. Almost no teams go deep in the playoffs using a RB with high draft capital whose team won a Super Bowl while still being on the team which drafted him. Fournette seems to be the only exception at the NFL 1.04 pick, and it's not like he was the reason why the Bucs won it (Ronald Jones was certainly good enough to win the SB with Brady at the helm). Which begs the question why bad teams like the Raiders or Giants still keep pissing away premium draft capital on running backs? Even if Jeanty was Barry Sanders 2.0, the original Barry didn't help the Lions win nor will Jeanty help the Raiders.

Fournette was drafted by Jacksonville, he's not an exception either.

Right, bad teams pick great RB's early. Good teams buy great RB's off bad teams at a discount later. Gibbs didn't buck the trend, the Lions were just more ready than some of us (hi) expected. I wonder if Bijan will take a similar path as CMC or Barkley...

 

[Faust]

Ben Devine
Lots of reports coming out that teams are targeting RB Ashton Jeanty in a trade up. Breer, Schrager, and Pelissero all reporting that he is a trade up target and that calls already been made in the top 10 for him. Gotta think the Bears are one of a select few teams. #NFLDraft

https://x.com/chicago_nfl/status/1914693672144163295?s=61

 

[Snotbubbles]

Jeanty is going to go to a team which won't even sniff the Super Bowl. Almost no teams go deep in the playoffs using a RB with high draft capital whose team won a Super Bowl while still being on the team which drafted him. Fournette seems to be the only exception at the NFL 1.04 pick, and it's not like he was the reason why the Bucs won it (Ronald Jones was certainly good enough to win the SB with Brady at the helm). Which begs the question why bad teams like the Raiders or Giants still keep pissing away premium draft capital on running backs? Even if Jeanty was Barry Sanders 2.0, the original Barry didn't help the Lions win nor will Jeanty help the Raiders.

Fournette was drafted by Jacksonville, he's not an exception either.

To be fair, in the past 20 years only 13 of the 32 NFL teams won a Super Bowl, so 60% of teams drafting, regardless of who they picked would have their players fall into this category. Here are the teams that won a Super Bowl with a RB they picked in the first in the round in the last 20 years:

New England Patriots (drafted Sony Michel in 2018 at #31)
Kansas City Chiefs (drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020 at #32)
New Orleans Saints (drafted Reggie Bush in 2006 at #2)

It seemed like there was a shift back to the RB position becoming more important last year. Part of the problem for RBs is that you don't see them being great for a 15 year career, maybe they have a great 5 years, and if you're lucky, another good 5 years (but those guys a few and far between). Most just don't last due to the pounding they take. Personally, I wouldn't spend a first round pick on a RB, but if you can hit the sweet spot of a team that is on the cusp of winning and give them a RB who has the ability to be great, it's poetry in motion.

 

[kyoun1e]

Ben Devine
Lots of reports coming out that teams are targeting RB Ashton Jeanty in a trade up. Breer, Schrager, and Pelissero all reporting that he is a trade up target and that calls already been made in the top 10 for him. Gotta think the Bears are one of a select few teams. #NFLDraft

https://x.com/chicago_nfl/status/1914693672144163295?s=61

Mike Vrabel is waiting for your call Poles.

 

[Instinctive]

Jeanty is going to go to a team which won't even sniff the Super Bowl. Almost no teams go deep in the playoffs using a RB with high draft capital whose team won a Super Bowl while still being on the team which drafted him. Fournette seems to be the only exception at the NFL 1.04 pick, and it's not like he was the reason why the Bucs won it (Ronald Jones was certainly good enough to win the SB with Brady at the helm). Which begs the question why bad teams like the Raiders or Giants still keep pissing away premium draft capital on running backs? Even if Jeanty was Barry Sanders 2.0, the original Barry didn't help the Lions win nor will Jeanty help the Raiders.

Fournette was drafted by Jacksonville, he's not an exception either.

To be fair, in the past 20 years only 13 of the 32 NFL teams won a Super Bowl, so 60% of teams drafting, regardless of who they picked would have their players fall into this category. Here are the teams that won a Super Bowl with a RB they picked in the first in the round in the last 20 years:

New England Patriots (drafted Sony Michel in 2018 at #31)
Kansas City Chiefs (drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020 at #32)
New Orleans Saints (drafted Reggie Bush in 2006 at #2)

It seemed like there was a shift back to the RB position becoming more important last year. Part of the problem for RBs is that you don't see them being great for a 15 year career, maybe they have a great 5 years, and if you're lucky, another good 5 years (but those guys a few and far between). Most just don't last due to the pounding they take. Personally, I wouldn't spend a first round pick on a RB, but if you can hit the sweet spot of a team that is on the cusp of winning and give them a RB who has the ability to be great, it's poetry in motion.

The real problem is one of excess value.

Drafting a RB who will get paid like $3m-$12M/year on the cap (from end to start of first round). The best RB FAs get paid like $12M/year.

So you draft a RB early, and you create very little excess value. You draft an edge, QB, WR, etc early - even mediocre ones are getting $20M+ in FA (or on same team second contracts/extensions). And QBs! Good lord the value.

So you're getting a LOT more excess team building value at other positions. That's the real reason not to take one, not the short career thing or impact on the game thing. It's about replaceability and cap value.

 

[menobrown]

Everyone in the world is mocking him to the Jags at 5 now but I heard Jeanty say himself he thinks 6 is his ceiling for highest pick.

 

[Chaka]

Brian Baldinger
.@BroncoSportsFB @AshtonJeanty2 @dallascowboys if I were the Cowboys I would do everything & anything to trade up to draft this star. He is going to be the OROY! Take it to the bank. #nfldraft #cowboys @MicahhParsons11 #BaldysBreakdowns

https://x.com/baldynfl/status/1914004777408545024?s=61

Baldy tweeting a blockbuster trade in the top 5.

NE swaps 4 to Dallas and somehow M. Parsons involved?

If that happens I want all Dallas Cowboys fans to know they are welcome to join the Raiders fan base on a permanent basis. Trust me it's better to have an incompetent owner who tries to hire good football people than an incompetent owner who thinks he is good football people.

 

[(HULK)]

Will the Jaguars pick RB Ashton Jeanty No. 5 overall?

I hate this.

I've been all geeked up for him to go to Vegas, which is actually a pretty great spot for him. Or Chicago.

Jax? Yuk.

 

[travdogg]

Will the Jaguars pick RB Ashton Jeanty No. 5 overall?

I hate this.

I've been all geeked up for him to go to Vegas, which is actually a pretty great spot for him. Or Chicago.

Jax? Yuk.

If the Jags took him, his role would be every bit as big (maybe bigger) than it would be in Chicago. Etienne wouldn't be on the team by day 3, and Swift likely takes more work than Bigsby.

 

[(HULK)]

Will the Jaguars pick RB Ashton Jeanty No. 5 overall?

I hate this.

I've been all geeked up for him to go to Vegas, which is actually a pretty great spot for him. Or Chicago.

Jax? Yuk.

If the Jags took him, his role would be every bit as big (maybe bigger) than it would be in Chicago. Etienne wouldn't be on the team by day 3, and Swift likely takes more work than Bigsby.

Yeah, but it's Jacksonville. Home of Randy "Macho Man" Savage International Airport. Nothing good happens in Jacksonville.

ETA: Other than yelling out "Bortles" if something awesome happens. That's cool IMO

 

[Buckna]

Will the Jaguars pick RB Ashton Jeanty No. 5 overall?

I hate this.

I've been all geeked up for him to go to Vegas, which is actually a pretty great spot for him. Or Chicago.

Jax? Yuk.

If the Jags took him, his role would be every bit as big (maybe bigger) than it would be in Chicago. Etienne wouldn't be on the team by day 3, and Swift likely takes more work than Bigsby.

Yeah, but it's Jacksonville. Home of Randy "Macho Man" Savage International Airport. Nothing good happens in Jacksonville.

ETA: Other than yelling out "Bortles" if something awesome happens. That's cool IMO

"Any time I had a problem, and I threw a Molotov cocktail… Boom, right away, I had a different problem".

 

[Payne]

Sure sounds like somebody is going to trade up to get him.

 

[MAC_32]

Sure sounds like somebody is going to trade up to get him.

That is definitely the message those picking in the top 10 are ensuring is out there in the market.