RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (3 Viewers)

[ffmail4me]

I HATE this signing damn it

 

[JohnnyU]

Anyone expecting the past Ekeler aren’t being honest with themselves.

 

[SuperFantasyFootballGuy]

Seems like the kind of guy who will have one big season with Washington before going to ****.


Brian Robinson owners can't be happy.

 

[The Frankman]

Commanders agreed to terms with RB Austin Ekeler, formerly of the Chargers, on a two-year contract.

The deal is worth “up to” $11.43 million and includes $4.82 million total in 2024. Another $1.5 million is possible incentives for 2024. It’s not the worst contract Ekeler could have signed, but it was probably one of his nightmare scenarios when he fought for a better deal last summer. We suppose 29-year-old Ekeler (in May) is an upgrade on Antonio Gibson in the Commanders’ pass-catching role, but it’s not for certain at this stage of his career. He is reuniting with Commanders RBs coach Anthony Lynn, who oversaw some of Ekeler’s pass-happiest campaigns with the Bolts. Kliff Kingsbury, of course, is the actual offensive coordinator. The three-down Ekeler experiment should be over, once again rendering him a receptions-based PPR FLEX.
- Rotoworld

 

[Faust]

Austin Ekeler: Signing with Washington about sharing workload, reuniting with Anthony Lynn

 

[GreenNGold]

I wonder if Washington made sure could run faster than 13.9 mph before signing him?

 

[travdogg]

I wonder if Washington made sure could run faster than 13.9 mph before signing him?

I mean, that was obviously the ankle. He clocked around 20 mph before he hurt it last year in the Miami game.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jayden Daniels has looked incredible in these rookie mini camps, all over the internet

-Ekeler has Brian Robinson to share the ball with, BRob is not that inspiring and has rushed for 700+ in his 1st 2 seasons, he's not that efficient
BRob caught 36 balls last year, inflated his season and he managed 9 TDs, I think Ekeler will up the ante.
With a rookie under center that will be looking to throw the ball quickly, Ekeler as a safety valve seems pretty safe to catch another 40-50 balls.

200 carries is about where he lands, that's not even 15 carries a game, add in the catches and you have something like 40-45+ catches, 1200+ yds total, 1558/1637 in '21-'22
Ekeler is not even going in the Top 30 RBs
Seems like he is value after 100 names come off the board, we're talking 8th-9th-10th round?

 

[titusbramble]

Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short

How is BRob established?
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23

Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

How do you read that?

New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment

 

[titusbramble]

He is established in that he is still in the building and will still rate to receive a large (in 2024 terms) number of rushing attempts

 

[travdogg]

Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short

How is BRob established?
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23

Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

How do you read that?

New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment

Eric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.

I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.

I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries

The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.

Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.

 

[TheWinz]

Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short

How is BRob established?
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23

Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

How do you read that?

New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment

Eric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.

I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.

I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries

The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.

Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.

You have Robinson getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Let's assume he is an average pass catcher and catches 2 of 3 targets. That's 14 + 2 = 16 touches X 17 games = 272 touches
You have him in the lower RB3 range, which is RB31 thru RB36. With that many touches, there is no way he finishes lower than RB30... none. The last time a RB had 272 touches and finished outside the top 30 was never.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short

How is BRob established?
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23

Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

How do you read that?

New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment

Eric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.

I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.

I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries

The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.

Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.

You have Robinson getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Let's assume he is an average pass catcher and catches 2 of 3 targets. That's 14 + 2 = 16 touches X 17 games = 272 touches
You have him in the lower RB3 range, which is RB31 thru RB36. With that many touches, there is no way he finishes lower than RB30... none. The last time a RB had 272 touches and finished outside the top 30 was never.

Some of Ekeler's highlights as a pass catcher as part of the 440 grabs he's nabbed in the NFL vs BRob's 45...
101, 92, 70 and on injury riddled seasons he managed 54 and 51...Ekeler is a gift and likely to catch a lot of ball from a rookie QB that will be scrambling and trying to just not take a negative play by dumping it off, I could see Ekeler easily crossing 50 and possibly land north of 70.

 

[travdogg]

Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short

How is BRob established?
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23

Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

How do you read that?

New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment

Eric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.

I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.

I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries

The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.

Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.

You have Robinson getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Let's assume he is an average pass catcher and catches 2 of 3 targets. That's 14 + 2 = 16 touches X 17 games = 272 touches
You have him in the lower RB3 range, which is RB31 thru RB36. With that many touches, there is no way he finishes lower than RB30... none. The last time a RB had 272 touches and finished outside the top 30 was never.

You're right. I transposed the numbers in my spreadsheet.

I have it:
Robinson-10 carries and 2 targets
Ekeler-8 carries and 3 targets
Daniels-7 carries

The low-end RB3s were right though.

Some of Ekeler's highlights as a pass catcher as part of the 440 grabs he's nabbed in the NFL vs BRob's 45...
101, 92, 70 and on injury riddled seasons he managed 54 and 51...Ekeler is a gift and likely to catch a lot of ball from a rookie QB that will be scrambling and trying to just not take a negative play by dumping it off, I could see Ekeler easily crossing 50 and possibly land north of 70.

Ekeler has had a great run (as a pass catcher especially) but 50 catches feels a lot closer to his ceiling than an expectation in this offense. Daniels is not a dump off guy at all, unless he's coached to fundamentally change who he is as a player. Rivers/Herbert were very different types of QBs than Daniels.

 

[(HULK)]

With a rookie under center that will be looking to throw the ball quickly, Ekeler as a safety valve seems pretty safe to catch another 40-50 balls.

I really don't know about this. Jayden has a strong propensity to tuck and run when a play breaks down. It was a major knock on his profile. Dumping to the RB outlet would be him unlocking a new habit, and while I hope he gains that, there is far from certainty that he will.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

With a rookie under center that will be looking to throw the ball quickly, Ekeler as a safety valve seems pretty safe to catch another 40-50 balls.

I really don't know about this. Jayden has a strong propensity to tuck and run when a play breaks down. It was a major knock on his profile. Dumping to the RB outlet would be him unlocking a new habit, and while I hope he gains that, there is far from certainty that he will.

Even on 3rd and 5+/3rd and long, Daniels might not connect with a WR down field, pass rush coming in quick and he dumps it.
It can become a quick habit for rookie QBs trying to avoid sacks from fast Edge guys on BOTH sides at the NFL level

 

[Payne]

I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.

 

[TheWinz]

Ekeler has had a great run (as a pass catcher especially) but 50 catches feels a lot closer to his ceiling than an expectation in this offense. Daniels is not a dump off guy at all, unless he's coached to fundamentally change who he is as a player. Rivers/Herbert were very different types of QBs than Daniels.

I let this comment stew for a few days, but it kept me thinking. I want to run some stats, but before I do, I would like the input of others. I am going to create a new thread and ask for a few lists.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.

Totally agree. Ekeler was a great story but at 29 in this new offense with a mobile QB, I don't think it's likely to work out for him. Also I know people don't think of him that way but Brian Robinson was a really effective receiver last year.

 

[TheWinz]

I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.

Totally agree. Ekeler was a great story but at 29 in this new offense with a mobile QB, I don't think it's likely to work out for him. Also I know people don't think of him that way but Brian Robinson was a really effective receiver last year.

Admit it - you waited until today to write this, so you could say he was 29, didn't you?

 

[Ilov80s]

I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.

Totally agree. Ekeler was a great story but at 29 in this new offense with a mobile QB, I don't think it's likely to work out for him. Also I know people don't think of him that way but Brian Robinson was a really effective receiver last year.

Admit it - you waited until today to write this, so you could say he was 29, didn't you?

Oh that's funny, I see his birthday was yesterday lol. I was not aware of that.

 

[TheWinz]

Fun fact - Austin Ekeler has a total of 1929 rushes in his college/NFL career. So does Christian McCaffrey.

 

[ratbast]

BRob won the job twice last year, he’s going to impress again.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

2021 - 276 touches including 70 catches for almost 650 yds helping him total 1,558 and 20 Big Touchdowns

2022 - 311 touches including 107 catches...read that part again...1,637/18 Big Touchdowns

2023 - Chargers go from Playoff contender to Top 5-6 pick, coach fired, dumpster fire, Ekeler only suited up 14 games. 230 touches, 51 catches , drop in production

Was given $24 Million over 3 years, he is likely to see around 250+ touches IMHO, 10-12 carries a game plus Washington lacks a true WR1, they need their RBs to contribute
I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

I'm not going to have this tug of war all summer long, most are posting nothing in terms of stats to feel so good about Robinson, feels like I walked into a Dynasty Pub
It's actually good news so few see him as being able to out pace his draft spot this year

ADP-109
Ekeler as an RB 3/4 in PPR leagues in the 9th round?
Free money in Redraft '24

 

[ffmail4me]

for a guy that looked at cooked as he did last year, his dynasty owners sure are treating him like its 2021. No one wants to move him, has Washington turned things around to the point that it actually boosted his value going to DC?

 

[Payne]

2021 - 276 touches including 70 catches for almost 650 yds helping him total 1,558 and 20 Big Touchdowns

2022 - 311 touches including 107 catches...read that part again...1,637/18 Big Touchdowns

2023 - Chargers go from Playoff contender to Top 5-6 pick, coach fired, dumpster fire, Ekeler only suited up 14 games. 230 touches, 51 catches , drop in production

Was given $24 Million over 3 years, he is likely to see around 250+ touches IMHO, 10-12 carries a game plus Washington lacks a true WR1, they need their RBs to contribute
I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

I'm not going to have this tug of war all summer long, most are posting nothing in terms of stats to feel so good about Robinson, feels like I walked into a Dynasty Pub
It's actually good news so few see him as being able to out pace his draft spot this year

ADP-109
Ekeler as an RB 3/4 in PPR leagues in the 9th round?
Free money in Redraft '24

Most undersized RB;'s who show a decline at the age of 29 usually don't bounce back.

Robinson is 6'1" 228.
Ekeler is 5'9" 200.

Combine that with sources saying Washington wants to run the ball to take pressure off of Daniels and that tells me Robinson is going to get plenty of work.

 

[Tau837]

I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):

• PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
• Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
• YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
• YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
• YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
• Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
• Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)

That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?

• PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
• PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)

Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):

• PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
• Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
• YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
• YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
• YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
• Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
• Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)

That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?

• PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
• PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)

Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.

Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciated
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot

-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.

It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me

Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.

 

[Tau837]

I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):

• PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
• Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
• YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
• YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
• YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
• Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
• Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)

That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?

• PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
• PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)

Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.

Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciated
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot

-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.

It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me

Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.

Yes, I'm a Chargers fan who watched every game last season. Ekeler looked like a shell of the player he was in 2021-2022. To be fair, he suffered an ankle injury early, and that was part of it, but to me that didn't seem like all of it... I think it is likely he is yet another older RB in age-/mileage-related decline. I was very happy the Chargers did not re-sign him, I wanted no part of that.

 

[ffmail4me]

Yeah he will of had to of discovered the fountain of youth if he expects to pass Robinson on the depth chart.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):

• PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
• Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
• YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
• YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
• YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
• Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
• Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)

That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?

• PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
• PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)

Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.

Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciated
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot

-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.

It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me

Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.

Yes, I'm a Chargers fan who watched every game last season. Ekeler looked like a shell of the player he was in 2021-2022. To be fair, he suffered an ankle injury early, and that was part of it, but to me that didn't seem like all of it... I think it is likely he is yet another older RB in age-/mileage-related decline. I was very happy the Chargers did not re-sign him, I wanted no part of that.

I'd like to see what he can do at 100%, that ankle injury hampered a lot of his production but I also think you are right that he's on the decline...but even at 75% of his normal self, that''s like 1,200 total yds and maybe 10TDs

Not to mention that BRob has rushed for 700 yds each of his 1st couple seasons, he's not exactly untouchable.

2024 Washington Commanders Depth Chart | Ourlads.com

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Washington Commanders 2024 NFL Depth Chart - ESPN

Check out the 2024 Washington Commanders NFL depth chart on ESPN. Includes full details on starters, second, third and fourth tier Commanders players.

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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl/teams/washington-commanders/depth-chart

I think FPros has them in reverse order but many sites have Ekeler entering camp as #1 on the depth charts

 

[Tau837]

Not to mention that BRob has rushed for 700 yds each of his 1st couple seasons, he's not exactly untouchable.

Robinson was also a better rusher last season. PFF graded 37 RBs who had at least 150 rushing attempts in 2023. Here is how Robinson and Ekeler compared in a number of metrics, along with their ranks in that group:

• PFF rushing grade: Robinson (73.7, #27) > Ekeler (65.1, #36)
• YPC: Robinson (4.1, tied for #17) > Ekeler (3.5, tied for #34)
• 10+ yard runs: Robinson (19, tied for #27) > Ekeler (7, #37 -- dead last)
• 15+ yard runs: Robinson (8, tied for #23) > Ekeler (4, #33)
• YCO/A: Robinson (2.93, #15) > Ekeler (2.64, #31)
• Missed tackles forced: Robinson (37, tied for #22) > Ekeler (31, tied for #28)
• PFF elusive rating: Robinson (64.3, #14) > Ekeler (49.4, #24)
• First downs: Robinson (46, tied for #21) > Ekeler (34, tied for #32)

So... Robinson was better at rushing, receiving, and pass blocking last season. Is there anything at which Ekeler was better? There are only two reasons for anyone to believe Ekeler can dominate RB touches over Robinson:

• His ankle injury hampered him last season, but he will be healthy and perform better in 2023.
• Washington signed him despite having Robinson already, and this is a new regime in Washington, so could be more committed to their choice (Ekeler) than the previous regime's choice (Robinson).

That's not a lot to bank on IMO. Robinson was better in 2023, and, even if you think Ekeler bounces back, Robinson is a good RB who will get touches. And Ekeler is trying to rebound at age 29 in a new offense that isn't likely to be as tailored to him as the 2021-2022 Chargers offenses under Joe Lombardi.

Somewhat ironically given Ekeler's history, looking at all of this rushing, receiving, and pass blocking data makes it seem like Robinson should get the work on 3rd downs, passing situations, and 2/4 minute situations, with Ekeler possibly getting the early down work. Maybe the season will not start out that way due to Ekeler's history and contract, but, if he fails to impress early, he could easily lose that work to Robinson.

I'd rather have Robinson at his ADP (104) than Ekeler at his (79).

 

[fatness]

I'd rather have Robinson at his ADP (104) than Ekeler at his (79).

I think those ADP rankings will change a lot between now and the beginning of the season.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It’s probably a timeshare. Who knows how productive that offense will be.

I’d throw a dart at either in redraft if the ADP holds. Maybe both.

Eke has obvious upside, but I’m skeptical we ever see the same dude who scored TDs by the bucketload in LAC again. That train has sailed. And both Robinson & Eke cap each other’s ceiling. A ceiling which could be limited by QB play.

 

[Mene]

I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.

In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):

• PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
• Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
• YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
• YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
• YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
• Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
• Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)

That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?

• PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
• PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)

Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.

Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciated
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot

-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.

It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me

Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.

Are you referring to his LAC contract? Because Washington gave him a 2yr/11.43m deal that is easily turned into a 1yr deal with little hit next year if they move on. Washington definitely is not heavily invested financially in Ekeler, his contract is essentially a 1 year show me deal.

 

[kface]

Probably been said in here over and over again but this has dalvin cook written all over it

 

[3quinox825]

Probably been said in here over and over again but this has dalvin cook written all over it

I hope not. I traded a 2025 2nd for him.

 

[karl.Racki]

Staying away from both... I feel they didn't sign Ekeler for 11M to be a 3rd down back and this will be a RBBC or whoever is gaining yards during the game type thing.

 

[Dez]

We still have believers Ekeler went in the 4th round of the fantasy football index magazine draft a draft chalk full of "experts"

 

[Payne]

We still have believers Ekeler went in the 4th round of the fantasy football index magazine draft a draft chalk full of "experts"

I think either it's 50-50 and neither are relevant OR Robinson is an absolute steal and will win leagues.

 

[Faust]

Austin Ekeler explains leaving Chargers: 'They want a guy they can hand the ball off to 300 times a year'

 

[jm192]

I've seen places projecting 50+ Receptions for Ekeler in 2024. That seems like a stretch.

Is a mobile rookie QB in Jayden Daniels going to dump it off for Ekeler to hit that mark? Keep in mind, he won't get ALL of the passing game work. At LSU, 14% of Daniel's completions went to running backs. That was split across 6 or 7 running backs. I would question if the dump off rate isn't less in the NFL as he adjusts--as rookie QB's seem to prefer to scramble rather than to dump it off when the pressure comes. And Logically, he's going to face more pressure in a tougher league. Maybe that's wrong. But it makes sense.

I don't think they want him throwing it a ton as a rookie. They're already talking about how they want to run the ball to take the pressure of Daniels. I'm guessing we see his pass attempts in the 400's rather than the 600's. Say he's at 450 and keeps pace with 14% of completions going to RB's--that comes out to 63 total.

Robinson will catch SOME balls. I just worry there won't be enough dump offs to get Ekeler to that mark. And I think the expected passing game value is the only thing holding him up at all in 2024.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Fun fact - Austin Ekeler has a total of 1929 rushes in his college/NFL career. So does Christian McCaffrey.

I found this interesting so I dove a little deeper...as Eck played one more year of college, etc (#'s include postseason):

CMC: (137) career games (college/pro).....(2,769) total touches (Rush: 2034, Rec: 645, ST: 90)

ECK: (146) career games (college/pro)......(2,517) total touches (Rush: 1953, Rec: 564)

*** grew up in rural Missouri so math accuracy can be questioned ***

 

[fightingillini]

for a guy that looked at cooked as he did last year, his dynasty owners sure are treating him like its 2021. No one wants to move him, has Washington turned things around to the point that it actually boosted his value going to DC?

He was cooked because high ankle sprains are brutal to recover from. He wasn't the same guy after that injury, it just lingered all season long.

That said, his value is going down. He will share the backfield with Brian Robinson and I am not entirely sure that Daniels will check down to him much, he will probably take off and run first. I will probably let someone else draft him.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then sliding Eck into your lineup....think he could be decent value at ADP...

 

[jm192]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....LAC occasionally lined him up outside/slot, so I could see some of that too..

 

[jm192]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he's been doubted his whole life and now (understandably) it's the fantasy community's turn....coming off a down year....a decent deal, but somewhat of a "prove it" deal on a new team with another capable back (like Gordon back in the day?)....he has generally responded to the doubters and "prove it" type situations in the past....all the way back to coming out of high school when every college team (except one) wanted him to switch to defense....obviously an injury to either him or Robinson probably vaults the other into instant start status....but I feel Eck can still be a flex/RB3 type in PRR as the floor, with possibility (depending on how the offense looks/shakes out between now and the start of season) a mid to lower end RB2...if you have two solid/decent RB's rostered and one gets hurt and you got to start two, you could probably do worse then Eck....think he could be decent value at ADP...

But how much do you envision Daniels checking it down?

I keep reading the PPR/pass catching points. I see a rookie QB that excels at running, and don't envious a lot of dump offs. While Ekeler excels as a pass catcher, are the opportunities going to be enough to give him 50+ catches?

I think trying to predict Daniels propensity to check down vs "taking off" at the NFL level and in this offense (at this point) might kinda be a waste of time and not something to base your drafting or not of Eck on...I think many are "assuming" he will take off instead of checking down, and then the others are assuming he will check down a lot cause he is a rookie, etc....maybe a better way to look at is how much will there be "designed" check downs so to speak....Eck and Rob can both catch so I feel it would be safe to assume whether Daniels takes off or not....designed passes to the RB will be part of the game plan....it probably would be stupid not to make it part of the plan if you bring in a guy like Eck where that is the strength of his game.....and the WR/TE room there isn't really one of the best in the league at this point....

It's based on logic/past performance of the archetype. Running QB's tend to run when immobile QB's dump it off. Sometimes they'll still dump it off...but the running ability replaces many of those RB pass opportunities.

Josh Allen's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his rookie year
Kyler Murray's top receiving back didn't hit 40 receptions his 1st year.
Lamar's top running back his 2nd year (1st full time year as starter) had 26 receptions.
Hurts 1st year as the full time starter, Gainwell topped the list at 33 receptions.

Running quarterbacks replace a fair amount of dump off opportunities with scrambles. It's just fact.
Could Daniels be the outlier that doesn't do that? Maybe.

But projecting Ekeler to get 50 receptions from a running QB feels like a lofty bar. Maybe I'll be wrong. I'll certainly let you have him in drafts.

just conversation, but your first guy....Josh Allen.... averaged just over 3 yards a carry in college (716 on 235 attempts last two years) ....he wasn't exactly a "running QB" coming out of college....especially compared to Daniels who in his senior season alone averaged over 8 yards a carry (1134 on 135) ....so narratives sometimes change....to be fair, I didn't look at the others....

lol....fwiw...Clay has Eck right at exactly 50 receptions on 68 targets...so 50 may be about right once other projections come out closer to the season...