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RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (2 Viewers)

My book actually has a "team to draft Bijan" prop and Detroit are the favourites, then a bit of a gap to Philly, Washington then Cincy
I know people are liking Detroit, but 🤮 Maybe just because I'm a Swift owner and believer? But even if Swift can only go 10 touches a game max, why would Swift not steal the bulk of the receiving work? He's so good.
If they draft Robinson, you can probably stop believing in swift. 🥹


I would not take the Lions drafting Robinson as an indicator for the team feeling negative on Swift any more then I would take the Chargers drafting Bijan being a negative on Ekeler. Neither of those are foundation type runners and both in the last year of their deals. And both of these teams I view as teams that make sense to draft Bijan.
 
My book actually has a "team to draft Bijan" prop and Detroit are the favourites, then a bit of a gap to Philly, Washington then Cincy
I know people are liking Detroit, but 🤮 Maybe just because I'm a Swift owner and believer? But even if Swift can only go 10 touches a game max, why would Swift not steal the bulk of the receiving work? He's so good.
If they draft Robinson, you can probably stop believing in swift. 🥹


I would not take the Lions drafting Robinson as an indicator for the team feeling negative on Swift any more then I would take the Chargers drafting Bijan being a negative on Ekeler. Neither of those are foundation type runners and both in the last year of their deals. And both of these teams I view as teams that make sense to draft Bijan.
Fair point.

I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him, but I’d have to miss part of the draft to shower and change my undies. 🥹
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
Agree on all counts. If Gibbs or Bijan lands in MIA it’s a FF wet dream.
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
Agree on all counts. If Gibbs or Bijan lands in MIA it’s a FF wet dream.
Can't wait to see Miami take Spears or Miller and springboard them into a rookie draft mid-1st rounder
 
Let's try and unpack how high Bijan will be drafted. We know two seemingly contrary truths: Robinson is universally considered an elite level talent, in the same tier as Barkley and Zeke. Barkley went 1.02, Zeke went 1.04. Since that time, the consensus opinion is that RBs do not merit that high a selection. With these parameters in mind, here goes:

1.01- Chicago: Be it the Bears pick or a trade is made, it looks like an elite defender or QB. 0% Robinson here.

1.02 - Houston: Most likely QB, but a slight chance of an elite defender. 0% Robinson here.

1.03- Cardinals- While I don't think this is likely, given the myriad needs that the Cardinals have, there is recent precedent (see above) that Robinson lands in Arizona. Far and away, the most likely outcome here is an Edge or a trade in spot looking to get in front of the Colts for a QB. This is the first position that I see a non-zero chance that Bijan gets drafted. The tools are there, Connor is a decent runner but certainly wouldn't foreclose the selection of Robinson in this slot. I'll assign a 15% chance that Robinson goes at 1.03.

1.04- Colts- Feel like the Colts are the most likely team to move in the top 10- either they go up to 1.01 to get their preferred QB, or, if they don't go up and two teams leapfrog them to grab Young/Stroud at 1.01, Houston takes the other QB at 1.02, then get leapfrogged at 1.03 (Feel like Carolina or Atlanta will be a strong player to jump into 1.03 to take a QB). At this point, given that Anthony Richardson crushed the combine, don't be surprised if he becomes the 1.03. Regardless, Bijan won't go here. A trade in possibility is about 5%.

1.05- Seattle- The Seahawks are a tricky forecast. Their boards seem to be different from most other teams and they are not afraid to deviate from consensus. Still, Ken Walker was outstanding as a rookie and this team is thin all over the defensive side of the ball. Don't see Bijan here.

1.06- Detroit- Judging by their actions, snap count utilization, and Swift's injury history, DeAndre projects to be a timeshare back. Williams looks to be an ideal tandem will Swift. Still,
Bijan is a clear step above in talent. The Lions have a superior line and the case can be made that Dan Campbell would love Bijan's skill set as a fit into this offense. Still, Robinson is unlikely here, but not impossible, given Campbell's desire to run the ball. I'll assign a 15% chance at 1.06 as well.

1.07- Raiders- Think JJ comes back. Team has so many other needs, and may deal this pick anyway. McDaniels, prior to this year, was always a committee back practitioner. 5% chance for Bijan here.

1.08- Atlanta- This is my first strong indication of an actual Bijan destination: If the elite QBs are gone and the elite defenders are gone. (My sense is that Stroud, Young, Richardson, Anderson, Carter, Wilson, and Murphy are the top 7)- does Atlanta see Levis in that tier? That's a question that I can't answer, but from a pure talent grade, if Bijan is a top 4 overall player in the class and both the elite QBs and defenders are gone, why NOT go ahead and get value on this pick, especially if Levis is not seen as an ungrade to Ridder. After all, Arthur Smith made his reputation on a Derrick Henry focused offense- why not use Bijan as a means to replicate that success. I'm going with a 40% chance that Bijan goes in this slot.

1.09- Carolina- Another team desperate for a QB. Similar to Indy- they are either going to the very top of the draft to get a Big 3 (Stroud, Young, Richardson) or positioning themselves for Levis. Regardless, don't see a chance of the Panthers drafting a RB. The most likely outcome is that a team is trying to jump in front of Philadelphia, who would just be nuclear with Bijan in the backfield, to take Robinson trades into 1.09. I'll assign a 10% probability of Robinson going here.

1.10- Philadelphia- My view this is the likely floor. Getting a top 4 talent at 1.10 is theft. Eagles can let Sanders walk, add a probowl talented piece to an already dynamic offense and become the Superbowl favorites. 10% possibility.

I just don't see how the 1.04 rated player, even at a devalued position, makes it out of the top 10.

Anyway, those are my thoughts...
100% that he goes in the top 10? I'd say 10% he goes in top 10.
Its' going to be really fun to watch this unfold.
 
Can't wait to see Miami take Spears or Miller and springboard them into a rookie draft mid-1st rounder
That is exactly what would happen. And I'd be 100% ok with it since I have 1-4, and then 8. Another RB between 5-7, or one of those dudes falling to 8 if they land in MIA would all be great outcomes for me.
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
Agree on all counts. If Gibbs or Bijan lands in MIA it’s a FF wet dream.
Can't wait to see Miami take Spears or Miller and springboard them into a rookie draft mid-1st rounder
Agreed, although Spears is probably already a 1st rounder imo
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
Agree on all counts. If Gibbs or Bijan lands in MIA it’s a FF wet dream.
Can't wait to see Miami take Spears or Miller and springboard them into a rookie draft mid-1st rounder
Agreed, although Spears is probably already a 1st rounder imo
I’m not convinced of that - I see him as a mid-2nd. And it’s no knock on Spears, I just don’t think we’ll see more than 2 RB in the 1st. I’d be a little surprised if it wasn’t just Bijan, tbh.
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
Agree on all counts. If Gibbs or Bijan lands in MIA it’s a FF wet dream.
Can't wait to see Miami take Spears or Miller and springboard them into a rookie draft mid-1st rounder
Agreed, although Spears is probably already a 1st rounder imo
I’m not convinced of that - I see him as a mid-2nd. And it’s no knock on Spears, I just don’t think we’ll see more than 2 RB in the 1st. I’d be a little surprised if it wasn’t just Bijan, tbh.

I think he meant in fantasy drafts. Which I agree with.

Yeah, I’m convinced given that flow of conversation, he meant Spears is already 1st round fantasy. I can only hope he makes it to 1.12.
 
I want the Dolphins to trade up to get him,
The #1RB landing spot IMO.

Not to get off subject of Bijan but the Dolphins could spend a third round pick on like the 8th ranked consensus RB I could see that RB being like pick 4 of rookie drafts. Depends what they do in FA, including keeping if they keep their own.
I am curious why you believe Miami is the top destination. I believe there are better offensive lines and offensive schemes for Bijan.

1. Coach, so I would disagree on scheme. Love the Shanahan scheme for Rb's and this was Kyle's running game coordinator.

2. Speed of the WR's opening up the running lanes

3. QB, at least for now. Tua does not run much, won't steal a lot of goal line work and he does get the ball out extremely quickly which is good formula for a lot of passes to Bijan.

No immediate comp does not hurt but not much of a factor. But should he land in a place like Detriot or LAC I don't think he could hit his upside while a guy like Ekeler or Swift are getting involved.
Agree on all counts. If Gibbs or Bijan lands in MIA it’s a FF wet dream.
Can't wait to see Miami take Spears or Miller and springboard them into a rookie draft mid-1st rounder
Agreed, although Spears is probably already a 1st rounder imo
I’m not convinced of that - I see him as a mid-2nd. And it’s no knock on Spears, I just don’t think we’ll see more than 2 RB in the 1st. I’d be a little surprised if it wasn’t just Bijan, tbh.

I think he meant in fantasy drafts. Which I agree with.

Yeah, I’m convinced given that flow of conversation, he meant Spears is already 1st round fantasy. I can only hope he makes it to 1.12.
Ah - ok, thanks - that makes more sense.

With that in mind, I don’t believe he’s a FF 1st rounder outside of single QB leagues.

If you’re in SF, 1.12 seems likely.

Landing spot matters though - if he’s in Miami, he’ll likely go top 8.
 
With that in mind, I don’t believe he’s a FF 1st rounder outside of single QB leagues.

He’s 1.12 in Socrates’ rankings, and I don’t even like the receivers before him so make of that what you will. In 1 QB and RB needy leagues (aren’t they all) he’s going to go in the first if the NFL takes him in the third. IMO, of course. He was 205 at the Senior Bowl, which is NFL size, which was his biggest knock against.
 
I have Spears ahead of a bunch of consensus guys, all of whom are undersized slot guys. I think Spears goes top nine in most 1QB drafts. The upside is just so high.

But this is about Bijan, so I’ll take it to the Spears thread.
 
With that in mind, I don’t believe he’s a FF 1st rounder outside of single QB leagues.

He’s 1.12 in Socrates’ rankings, and I don’t even like the receivers before him so make of that what you will. In 1 QB and RB needy leagues (aren’t they all) he’s going to go in the first if the NFL takes him in the third. IMO, of course. He was 205 at the Senior Bowl, which is NFL size, which was his biggest knock against.
I like him a lot - and he put on a heck of a show at the senior bowl and became everyone’s favorite sleeper.

I guess I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go 1.12
 
Just shows how much the league has devalued RBs if he legit falls to the Cowboys. I can't recall a RB getting this much love going into the draft since...well I haven't been playing FF long enough to remember a guy being treated as 1.01 for startup dynasty purposes before he's even drafted. It's pretty awesome.
 
If Dallas wants him they are going to move up. No way he drops to 26.
I would not be shocked if he fell to 26. If I had to set an over/under for Bijan draft slot right at this moment, I'd say 20.
Yeah, I'm not so sure he won't last to 26 given the devaluation of RBs. Looking at the teams ahead of Dallas, it would be a luxury pick. Cincy and Buffalo could be suitors, but they're right after Dallas.
 
Seahawks may just take him at 20. Pete and Co. love drafting running backs and after Penny and Homer got scooped up, they only have 2 rbs under contract.
That doesn’t make sense. They need a pass-catching back to pair with Walker.

Bijan would effectively replace/supplant Walker.

Losing Homer and bringing in Bijan is like losing a Honda Civic that you use only to get groceries & take the dog to the groomers and replacing it with a Ferrari.
 
Just shows how much the league has devalued RBs if he legit falls to the Cowboys. I can't recall a RB getting this much love going into the draft since...well I haven't been playing FF long enough to remember a guy being treated as 1.01 for startup dynasty purposes before he's even drafted. It's pretty awesome.
Saquan Barkley
Trent Richardson
Ezekiel Elliot
Todd Gurley

All very hyped coming out
 

Yeah, seeing Cowboys +550, Chargers/Washington +600, Bungles +650, Lions +700, everyone else +1200 or greater
I think Lions can safely be removed from that list.

Chargers, Bengals & Dallas looking pretty good though.
Chargers Bengals would be amazing landing spots imo. Dallas - that Oline isn't what it was.
 

Yeah, seeing Cowboys +550, Chargers/Washington +600, Bungles +650, Lions +700, everyone else +1200 or greater
I think Lions can safely be removed from that list.

Chargers, Bengals & Dallas looking pretty good though.
Chargers Bengals would be amazing landing spots imo. Dallas - that Oline isn't what it was.
I'll take any of those three.
 

Yeah, seeing Cowboys +550, Chargers/Washington +600, Bungles +650, Lions +700, everyone else +1200 or greater
Draft kings latest odds:

LAC +425
WAS +500
DAL +700
CIN +800
ATL +900
NOS +1100
BUF +1100
CHI +1200
Washington is interesting - hadn't thought of them. Gibson is in a contract year and they've clearly moved away from him. Robinson is a nice story, but is he the answer to a running game that will likely have essentially a rookie at QB? New OC in town in Bienemy may want a shiny new toy to help out Howell.
 

Yeah, seeing Cowboys +550, Chargers/Washington +600, Bungles +650, Lions +700, everyone else +1200 or greater
Draft kings latest odds:

LAC +425
WAS +500
DAL +700
CIN +800
ATL +900
NOS +1100
BUF +1100
CHI +1200

Yeah, I don't trust 365 to necessarily be right on the button when it comes to FA movement and might be slow to recognise the Montgomery acquisition. Or the NFL in general - heck, they had Cam Akers as the favourite for first touchdown in one game in 2021 and he was on injured reserve at the time
 
If Dallas wants him they are going to move up. No way he drops to 26.
I would not be shocked if he fell to 26. If I had to set an over/under for Bijan draft slot right at this moment, I'd say 20.
Yeah, I'm not so sure he won't last to 26 given the devaluation of RBs. Looking at the teams ahead of Dallas, it would be a luxury pick. Cincy and Buffalo could be suitors, but they're right after Dallas.
As a Cowboys fan, getting Bijan at #26 is the steal of the draft. He’s a top 3 talent.

Still believe he doesn’t get out of the top 10.
 
If Dallas wants him they are going to move up. No way he drops to 26.
I would not be shocked if he fell to 26. If I had to set an over/under for Bijan draft slot right at this moment, I'd say 20.
Yeah, I'm not so sure he won't last to 26 given the devaluation of RBs. Looking at the teams ahead of Dallas, it would be a luxury pick. Cincy and Buffalo could be suitors, but they're right after Dallas.
As a Cowboys fan, getting Bijan at #26 is the steal of the draft. He’s a top 3 talent.

Still believe he doesn’t get out of the top 10.
no one is taking that guy top 10.
 
If Dallas wants him they are going to move up. No way he drops to 26.
I would not be shocked if he fell to 26. If I had to set an over/under for Bijan draft slot right at this moment, I'd say 20.
Yeah, I'm not so sure he won't last to 26 given the devaluation of RBs. Looking at the teams ahead of Dallas, it would be a luxury pick. Cincy and Buffalo could be suitors, but they're right after Dallas.
As a Cowboys fan, getting Bijan at #26 is the steal of the draft. He’s a top 3 talent.

Still believe he doesn’t get out of the top 10.
I think it goes back to oldschool @Joe Bryant VBD. The best RB in the NFL versus the #15 RB in the NFL just isn't a giant gap in value. It is a passing league.... there are 15 WRs you want over the best RB.
 
I have to believe Eagles are still in play - maybe even with their first pick. The signing of Penny to a cheap contract gives then a placeholder in case their draft plan doesn't unfold, but they've got to be considering him.
 

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