Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You think 5 WRs go before Bijan? I think maybe one or two. I only see maybe 3 first round WRs though.
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RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
That's fair. For a team that really wants to run the ball, I can't imagine they're going to entirely put their faith in Penny. There's not much commitment to Penny and if he goes down again, I doubt they want their running game fully in the hands of Gainwell/Scott. But for Philly to get Robinson, they're going to have to trade up and doesn't seem to be their style for any RB.
I’d tone it down to like four at most.
Zero chance. Zero.
Maaayyybe if he falls to 30. He's being mocked late 20s and philly has 3rbs under contract and way bigger needs.
Zero.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think you’re probably right. I said it before - all the mock drafts are littered with offense, but then the draft gets here and it’s all edge, OL, CB in the 1st. This years different because we have legit 1st round QBs (where last year we had a 2nd round QB taken in the mid-1st).
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
There is no way the Eagles take a RB in the first round. Think about this...if the Eagles took Robinson at #10 they would have to pay him $22M and he'd have a $4M cap hit in 2023. They could have brought back Miles Sanders for that. #30 makes more sense until you factor in the teams draft philosophy. The Eagles would draft an offensive lineman in the 1st before a RB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m convinced they’re taking a top DB at 10. It makes sense. They’ll likely be losing Gardner-Johnson to FA, which I suspect played heavily into not releasing Slay, so they will have an immediate hole to fill.
That said, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bijan on the board early 20s and PHI make a move up to get him. Because I doubt he makes it past the Chargers, Cowboys, Chiefs, etc.
To me, this is how Bijan becomes an Eagle.
massraider
Footballguy
My favorite phrase pre-draft
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly. All of the win-now, mostly complete teams save for RB should be looking to move up a few picks to get him.
I’m going to be glued to my TV when they get to TB at 19 because that’s about where it should start. I don’t think TB will take him. Possible, but more likely they’re the team to deal down - then it’s a question of who deals up.
Gonna be fun to see. Edge of the seat drama.
Ps - for the record, I don’t think it will be PHI
That post wasn't in reference to the draft, a general statement re the league and RB value in real life NFL.
massraider
Footballguy
I am completely in favor of NOT drafting running backs high, I am on board with any ranking of positional value.
However, if it fits a need for your team, getting a true blue chip RB talent is worth a late 1st rounder. It just is. Late first rounders aren't sure things, and a lot of them that DO hit just become workman-like guys. Getting a decent OG late 1st is fine, but do I take the 3rd OT or 5th CB in this draft over Bijan? I don't think I do.
I like the PFF guys podcasts, but they pound this don't draft RBs early thing into the ground, and every once in a while it's worth mentioning, hey you know what, Jags should have taken Nick Chubb over Taven Bryan. Now, that's obviously cherry-picking, but that's the point. If you take a DT over Chubb just because he's a DT with good workout numbers, you know what, you made a mistake.
However, if it fits a need for your team, getting a true blue chip RB talent is worth a late 1st rounder. It just is. Late first rounders aren't sure things, and a lot of them that DO hit just become workman-like guys. Getting a decent OG late 1st is fine, but do I take the 3rd OT or 5th CB in this draft over Bijan? I don't think I do.
I like the PFF guys podcasts, but they pound this don't draft RBs early thing into the ground, and every once in a while it's worth mentioning, hey you know what, Jags should have taken Nick Chubb over Taven Bryan. Now, that's obviously cherry-picking, but that's the point. If you take a DT over Chubb just because he's a DT with good workout numbers, you know what, you made a mistake.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Thanks. You may be onto something!!
Just trying to bring you back to the context you missed.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well luckily I’ve been paying attention for years, so already knew WRs were more valuable than RBs.
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Watch it be Dallas. Zeke just got cut and Pollard is on a 1 yr deal.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve suspected this for a while.
But really hoping Eke finds a new home & the Chargers draft the next LT2.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Browns trade Chubb for a 2nd. Trade two 2nds move up for Bijan.
Yeahhhhhhhhh
Yeahhhhhhhhh
eighsse2
Footballguy
BiJanian RoblinsonI’ve suspected this for a while.
But really hoping Eke finds a new home & the Chargers draft the next LT2.
make it happen
Jared Tokarz @JaredNFLDraft
Always a lot of discrepancy on the value of the RB position and where to draft one.
I’ll just say this, Bijan Robinson is worth a top 15 pick. He’s an outlier.
The “We can probably find a similar type RB in the mid-rounds” does not apply here.
Which would, as a Cowboys fan, be amazing- a theft of epic proportions.
He's an elite talent, one that many NFL scout consider #1 overall in this class.
I love Tony Pollard but he's not built for a bellcow role.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yes he is
I think someone moves up into the mid teens to take him. Lots of teams there that could trade down.
-Tennessee is rebuilding and has lots of holes, if an OT isn’t there at 11 ( no guarantee at all) they should consider moving down.
-If I am Houston I seriously consider moving down from 12 if the premier pass-rushers are all off the board. They can move down and still grab a WR if that’s the route they are thinking or just go BPA later with the state of their roster.
-Pats at 14 love to trade down.
-Packers may have 13 & 15 after the Rodgers trade and probably would like to space those picks out some. If the Jets keep 13 somehow in the trade may want to move down and recoup picks.
-Lions at 18 have liked accumulating picks last few years and may want to do so again
-Tampa at 19 starts the run of teams that would definitely be tempted to take him so need to get ahead of them IMO
Going to be fun seeing what happens draft day, any “There’s been a trade!” banners popup on the tv screen and all us fantasy folks are going to be on the edge of our seats.
-Tennessee is rebuilding and has lots of holes, if an OT isn’t there at 11 ( no guarantee at all) they should consider moving down.
-If I am Houston I seriously consider moving down from 12 if the premier pass-rushers are all off the board. They can move down and still grab a WR if that’s the route they are thinking or just go BPA later with the state of their roster.
-Pats at 14 love to trade down.
-Packers may have 13 & 15 after the Rodgers trade and probably would like to space those picks out some. If the Jets keep 13 somehow in the trade may want to move down and recoup picks.
-Lions at 18 have liked accumulating picks last few years and may want to do so again
-Tampa at 19 starts the run of teams that would definitely be tempted to take him so need to get ahead of them IMO
Going to be fun seeing what happens draft day, any “There’s been a trade!” banners popup on the tv screen and all us fantasy folks are going to be on the edge of our seats.
zamboni
Footballguy
That’s an interesting off-the-radar pick if they wanted to move on from Henry next year or even trade him. I don’t see Bijan essentially sitting for a year, but Henry himself did that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If he’s a Charger I’m gonna lose my GD mind.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
eighsse2
Footballguy
He said whole, everybody. Whole. Entire mouth.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I'm also thinking somewhere in the 20s. Probably plenty of reasons to refute some of these, but these are the ones that stood out to me based on situation and depth chart:
Cincy - Mixon out
Dallas
LAC - Ekeler out
Philly
Miami
maybe ATL
Beyond that..
TB/ARI/LAR - don't think he fits their timeline
KC/BUF - think they have other priorities
JAX/HOU - unlikely, but not sleeping on these
WAS/SEA - yuck, but can't sleep on Rivera and Carroll
Cincy - Mixon out
Dallas
LAC - Ekeler out
Philly
Miami
maybe ATL
Beyond that..
TB/ARI/LAR - don't think he fits their timeline
KC/BUF - think they have other priorities
JAX/HOU - unlikely, but not sleeping on these
WAS/SEA - yuck, but can't sleep on Rivera and Carroll
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This would be my 2nd favorite spot to LAC, though it might hurt Higgins/Chase a little.
rockaction
Footballguy
Dallas, when it comes down to it, is still Jerry Jones's team. And Bijan is a Texas product from the University of Texas.
He'll keep Austin weird all right. I could easily see Jerry moving up to take him.
And I know Jerry is from Oklahoma, but darn if he don't scream Texas.
massraider
Footballguy
He really doesn't scream at all, that's a common misconception. After nine face lifts, that's just how he looks as this point.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Robinson absolutely without a doubt goes to Chicago at #9. imagine a young QB, with THAT RB in the backfield plus that O-line???
they ran the ball down ppl's throats last year , they ran on anyone and everyone. They dumped flash in the pan Monty correct?
they need a RB. this is their guy for the next decade+
you're getting S. Barkley at a discounted price. this is a no brainer.
next...
they ran the ball down ppl's throats last year , they ran on anyone and everyone. They dumped flash in the pan Monty correct?
they need a RB. this is their guy for the next decade+
you're getting S. Barkley at a discounted price. this is a no brainer.
next...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d be in the other side of that bet.
He’s a special talent and a top 5 player in this draft.
There is no “I’ll take so-and-so RB in a later round without much drop-off” - not remotely.
Someone might take him higher than I expect (~19 ~> ) negating a trade-up, sure. But if not, someone gonna go for it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would also bet against this.
Fun to speculate tho.
I really don’t want this to happen. In my 16-team league I have Fields, Mooney & kmet.
I’d rather not roster the entire ****ing Bears starting lineup.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He doesn’t scream because his face would explode from all those surgeries.
WTF.
They won’t give Pollard more than 20 touches. He’s not built for that workload. He’s best with about 15 touches per game.
Dallas will find another back and have a 60/40 split.
more for the pollard forum, but no. Maybe a 70/30 split, which would put Pollard as one of the top 5 or so in the league in carries. He had over 20 touches many times last year and those were his best games.
finfansteve
Footballguy
I actually can see this and understand it tho I don’t think it will actually happen but I suppose it could
id bet my life on this not happening. Unless they trade WAY back.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
I think the Foreman signing took the Bears from a betting favorite to a long shot for Bijan's services. I won't entirely rule it out. Hopefully they have the decency to drop Herbert off at a nice rb farm upstate if it happens, but I wouldn't bank on this one.
The Bears were 10th in Vegas odds before the Foreman signing. Bijan was never going top 9 in the draft, I have no idea how in the world you think this.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t think the Bears ultimately take Bijan but a RB they signed for one year at $3MM shouldn’t be a reason for a team to pass on him.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The Bears signing Foreman has as much of an impact on what they do at #9 as the things I say on this message board.
zamboni
Footballguy
Don’t sell yourself short - I agree that if the Bears really like Bijan due his talent and ability to take off some of the pounding on Fields, Herbert/Foreman are probably not going to be deterrents. They’ve had a great few weeks and plugged a lot of other holes.
All that said, I think 9 is early for Robinson but you never know.
Boston
Footballguy
Not directed to you at all because you touch on this but I hate when people say there is no way “ this team” will draft a RB like Bijan…this kid is a generational talent and if you take him in the first round you get 5 years (and the reality is it is probably 4 because if he is what he is he will demand a new contract) of a rookie deal…he could go anywhere between right after the 4 QBs and Anderson to the end of the first round…I would not be surprised one bit if there are a lot of “I didn’t see that coming” once he gets picked.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think it says more about how the league values the RB position than Robinson, but if he’s really viewed as a transformational talent by a team, smart teams will draft BPA over need. It’s going to be must watch TV to see where he goes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think just in general any statement that starts out this way has a good chance of making the speaker look dumb in a few weeks.
