dipandglide
Footballguy
Something looked off last year. Hall wasn't as explosive. I'm still buying and like the floor/ceiling combo if he's healthy.
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RB Breece Hall, NYJ (2 Viewers)
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TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
As a Hall shareholders, I agree. I think this is a tough year for him fantasy-wise. Fields only looks downfield and will take off before dumping the ball to Breece.
The line has not been great and I don't see Fields arm threatening enough for defenses not to stack the box. As a Cowboys fan and fantasy shareholder of Hall... I was really hoping Jerry would have made a play for him.
In dynasty, Breece is a hold because he is a free agent next year and anywhere is better than the Jets.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I agree with all that but also the clock is ticking…
That could be, especially Wilson, but I think its also possible that they just aren't as talented as people want them to be. Being on the Jets doesn't help, I agree, but I think these might be more good talents than great talents.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don’t know how he is post injury but I thought pre injury Breece was a top 3 NFL RB level talent.
Dez
Footballguy
2023 all over again
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
Personally, I don't question Breece's talent, but Aaron Glenn seems intent on following the Lions blueprint. That means RBBC unless the other options end up sucking. and I do see a world where Breece is so much better they can't keep him off the field. But I can also see a world where Fields and B. Allen score most the rushing TDs. High risk, high reward. I'm staying out of this one.
yellowboardog
Footballguy
The philosphy makes sense.. but is Allen = Montgomery?
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
Being a Lions; homer, I know no one thought much of Monty before he came to Detroit. And no one thought much of Jamaal Williams before he rushed for 17 TDs in 2022. I don't know how good Braelon Allen is. But Breece struggled in short yardage last year, and if Allen doesn't suck, I do think it will be a full blown RBBC.
Ditto.
I acquired Hall last year and his usage was puzzling. Not sure what was up with him, but I sometimes couldn't tell the difference between him and Allen unless I was focused on the back of their jerseys. I'm avoiding.
I think he is a bigger question than the talent around him. It is not clear he recovered his explosiveness after his injury. His metrics were still solid, but way off 2022. I think the Jets line should be massively improved. They could end up being pretty good. Fields certainly is a question as a passer, but not as a runner. Lamar being a threat to run the ball probably adds .5-1 ypc to Baltimore backs. Fields could do the same.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Isaiah Davis may be a better player than Allen.
I do think Fields and what should be the best OL he's had on the team will help him running but rushing numbers just don't do a whole lot for fantasy though.
Breece, on a fairly healthy 4.6 ypc, has averaged 5.8 fantasy points a game on rushing yardage. 36% of his fantasy production. Even if he improves half a yard rushing and kept the same per game carry pace it would only net him about a 6/10th of a point extra.
Need to score TD's and be involved in the passing game and both of these things are concerns with Fields and usage of Allen in particular near the goal line.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
'Braelon Allen is the play for the Jets'
Said it before but the reality of this guys season last year has taken a mythical turn hasn't it?
He was quite bad outside of 1 game.
Said it before but the reality of this guys season last year has taken a mythical turn hasn't it?
He was quite bad outside of 1 game.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Fingers crossed my league mates believe this
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I have a hard time believing Breece won't see the bulk of the carries but I don't think Fields will throw him the ball.
I don't think Braelon Allen is better than Isaiah Davis but I know neither of them are as good as Breece Hall.
I don't think Braelon Allen is better than Isaiah Davis but I know neither of them are as good as Breece Hall.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I think we are yet to see how good 21 year old Braelon Allen is.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
Can't underestimate how poor the play calling was last year - when given any room Allen looked great yet they kept running him straight into the OL up the middle.
Everyone seems to be resigned that the new coach will put out a RBBC which has tanked Breece's value from last year but it still is unknown - could be a huge value pick if they run him as an alpha RB which is possible. Big risk big reward
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Sure, I am just going off what I saw from 20 year old Braelon Allen and comparing it to 24 year old Breece Hall and what I've seen from 23 year old Isaiah Davis, ya know?
Strictly talking about this year, where I expect Breece Hall to be the better player, while still not providing consistent fantasy value each week.
I expect Breece Hall to be gone next year.
Braelon Allen could be a goal line back but I still don't see how he will play a role in Fantasy Football, outside of further devaluing Breece Hall. The paragraph you didn't quote reads that way. Breece Hall is currently the most talented RB on that roster and I don't trust Fields to not use his legs under pressure.
I have a few (quite a few, actually) shares of Breece Hall in dynasty and keeper formats... I am not ready to panic sell assets to fill my RB need, but it won't take long. I will own zero shares in Redraft. What he did in 2023 should be acknowledged and I still think he's that player... he's just a Jet.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I can easily see Hall as having the second most receptions on the team. As of now, they have Wilson a rookie TE and a bunch of scrub WRs.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Dude, Fields averages 155 passing yards per game... I don't believe you can change the spots on a leopard. He just doesn't check the ball down ever.
Justin Fields played in 50 games and started 44... 977 passing yards to RBs. Not great. 12% of his career passing yardage has gone to RBs. Single game breakdown for Breece Hall (18 yards)? Pass.
Receptions to RBs looks like 3.5 to 4 per game.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
This speaks to his lack of processing right? He's always been slow on the read, then if the first option isn't there, the play falls apart.
Maybe the OC can design plays for Hall as the first option? That would at least manufacture the touches Hall owners will need. Otherwise it's Wilson as the only option on this offense for fantasy purposes.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
With the probably lack of catches along with the talk of more rotation, Hall’s prospects this year do not look good on paper. For dynasty players, it may present a nice buy opportunity if he struggles to produce in the early to mid portion of next year in hopes he flees to FA after the season.
IMO no, more that he has athleticism to get out of a jam whereas a less athletic QB needs an outlet more then one who can just take off and run.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Early Fields sucked at getting thru his progressions. Horrible at it. Locked onto receivers and held the ball too long, which manufactured pressures that shouldnt exist.
The good news for Fields is he is athletic and was able to turn these plays into chunk plays with his legs. I'll be honest, didn't watch much of him last year. Has this become a positive?
As said, I will hold Hall in Dynasty but don't think I can take him in redraft at his ADP.
Harrison Glaser
Aaron Glenn telling Breece Hall that the passing game is where the #Jets are gonna use him a lot
"That's where we're gonna open your game up this whole year. That's a f*cking mismatch. Take you over anybody out there, any safety or linebacker."
@nyjets
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Every team is looking to do that for all their players at this stage.
steelcityman
Footballguy
That might be best for all parties involved, including dynasty owners w Hall.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Things sure change quick for dynasty RBs.
rockaction
Footballguy
Depends on the year and the scheme. In 2022 PFF had him as the lowest check down rate.
In 2024, he had one of the highest.
Truth might be in the middle but the Jets have no WRs so I’d bet on Breece or Braelon getting a bunch.
TLEF316
Footballguy
Hes still productive overall but just hasn't been the same runner post injury. Not as explosive and often very hesitant and indecisive hitting holes.
Obviously the running game was a disaster the past 2 years due to Rodgers and the "coaching" but breece left a lot of yards on the field.
Easy enough to franchise him next year if they need to. But if Allen and davis show that they can handle the workload, I could see just letting him walk and using the resources elsewhere.
Dude looked like a top 3 RB early.
Obviously the running game was a disaster the past 2 years due to Rodgers and the "coaching" but breece left a lot of yards on the field.
Easy enough to franchise him next year if they need to. But if Allen and davis show that they can handle the workload, I could see just letting him walk and using the resources elsewhere.
Dude looked like a top 3 RB early.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Hall's offseason reminds me of Josh Jacobs a few years ago. Many people sold Jacobs for pennies in dynasty, and he was dirt cheap in redraft before breaking out. I'm not ready to quit yet and not at these prices.
rockaction
Footballguy
Gah. Awful news for Hall owners. Did some reading today. Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points was letting go of some free material. I found this information. This is brutal and I urge you all to look at it. Ugly. YPC is a flawed stat but this shows the difference between Breece’s YPC when running a zone concept and when he’s running man/gap concept. It’s mind bottling. Anybody reprinting or restating should cite Ryan Heath. He deserves it. The new play callers are running zone concept. There’s a two-yard difference for Hall, and it ain’t in the good way.
Chemical X
Footballguy
hall seems destined for 13-15 carries a game. goal line could be allen or fields. no way hall gets jacobs’ volume. best bet is to hold and when the jets let him go, maybe he winds up as a 3 down work horse somewhere else.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
This makes me think the most talented runners in football command a zone rb scheme due to whatever intangibles they have. I guess man/gap is just pick the assigned hole and plow and run right through. Not a great look for Breece to be so high in one category and so low in the more finesse / skill category
rockaction
Footballguy
One would think that, but then one wouldn’t be taking into account two things:
1) How abysmal the line was in his first two years
2) That Mark Schlereth reported watching their blocking scheme and said it was the worst designed run blocking scheme he had ever seen and that it precluded success for nearly anyone
So we really don’t know what the cause is. I have a feeling it’s part crap scheme and part injury because I can point to big Breece runs that are obvious zone runs.
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I mean, that’s a seventy-two yard house call with that SF wide zone blocking scheme. Butter. Easy peasy. The sad thing is that is his ACL game. You know what? I knew better. Mama don’t let your babies grow up to revere RBs because it can be over in less than a second. And don’t assume these guys always come back like new because they don’t. Hard lesson.
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electric Ape
Footballguy
So often these kinds of advanced analytics are dropped on the FF community like oracles of pure truth and so often they are garbage. I would advise all to be skeptical of any such study unless you fully understand the data and have full trust in its author. My livelihood is in charting complex and chaotic systems and using that work to build predictive models and almost always when I deep dive into these modern NFL analytics they are sloppy and terrible. Accurately charting football plays is super time consuming and requires lots of real football savvy and a highly trained eye and the people who make such studies are often closer to football tourists than true football professionals. When such a stat is produced almost nobody ever scrutinizes it, it just gets passed around like catnip for the lazy. I will openly state that I have not deep dived this Hall breakdown and it could be a careful and accurate study. But based on a lot of history and the basic sniff test I have questions about its quality.
Just for a fan of football, not even a football person, would it make sense that Breece Hall is wildly better at power gap running than on zone concept runs? Is he more of a big physical one cut runner or is he more of a patient, finesse runner who uses vision to set up his blockers? Unless you disregard the consensus of the entire NFL scouting community this result set is counterintuitive. Sometimes data can disprove a subjective human bias and provide a breakthrough in understanding. It’s possible that this has happened here but probably not likely.
Here's just one example of many on how these stats fail: what happens if on two of the power gap runs in the sample a key defender slipped and fell down in an unforced error allowing huge gains and this didn’t happen on any of the zone runs? Most of these models have no way of properly accounting for the true chaos of a football play which quite often leads to false signals and misleading results.
Sorry this got so long. I just see a huge blind spot in the fantasy community that gets passed along as wisdom and I try to comment on it where I can. Moving to more actionable commentary I’d say like others that I see some bad omens for Breece Hall this season in terms of snaps played and passing game usage projections. And the team knows the player better than we do so if they are talking about reducing his workload that should not be completely ignored. With all the bad juju, if folks are down on him or have him on the avoid list I think that’s reasonable. My eye tells me even after the injury Hall is still playing at a pretty high level, I just don’t see a player who is washed. In drafts I don’t mind making a bet on ability and taking Hall where he is sliding. There is reduced effectiveness risk and usage risk but Hall has gotten cheap enough where taking him still feels +EV to me. Even in the nightmare scenario where he’s lost half a step and he’s stuck in a full share with Allen with Davis sprinkled in, Hall is not priced wildly off his floor and he’d have contingent upside in unexpected scenarios like an Allen injury or a trade.
Chaka
Footballguy
AMEN!!! TESTIFY!!!
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Yep. Analytics are cool. The problem is when they are used to make the judgment and not used as part of the argument to make the judgment.
