Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Cam Akers, MIN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Making me feel a little better. The main podcasts and such I listen to aren't too fond of him. In a recent dynasty startup, I got him as my RB3 (Saquon and CEH). But reading a little more about him I'm very pleased.
EBF
Footballguy
Hard to say that when his rookie draft ADP is around 5-7, and there are numerous guys going after him in most drafts who were higher NFL draft picks (i.e. Ruggs, Reagor, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Shenault, etc). I don't love all those guys as prospects, but arguably the RB and instant opportunity factors are already pushing his ADP several spots higher than where it should be based on the generic traits.
I'm repeating myself, but the scariest thing about Akers is that he was an ineffective college football player. He may be the best pure athlete in this RB class, but it never translated to dominance in college, so picking him at his ADP requires you to believe his situation was so bad in college that it hid his true talent level. I'm skeptical. I actually liked him a lot out of HS and I still think the talent is compelling, but there seems to be a lot of bust risk and his ADP doesn't offer amazing margin for error.
I don't hate him in a vacuum, but I think he's probably overpriced based on the risk/reward outlook. I'd want to get a guy like this about 5-6 spots later than where he goes, so he's kind of a non-starter for me this year in rookie drafts.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
We see something similar every year. I've said it before and I'll say it again, most of those "experts" are no more knowledgeable than the majority in this forum. They spit out the flavor of the month and ramble on and on about the hot topic of the day. Akers had the cards stacked against him while at FSU yet he kept grinding and looked good while doing it. It's only my personal opinion but I don't think the #3 spot is cut and dry and Akers should be put in that conversation.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
That's kinda my point, he should be in that top 3 conversation based on what he was able to achieve with little to zero support. He often faced 8 in the box and everyone knew they just needed to focus on Akers and the offense would struggle to get the win. I don't want to get into player vs player comparisons but considering his circumstances while at FSU he deserves a closer look. I like him a lot, it looks like the talent is there but it's hard to really see what a player can do when the opposing defense is already in your face making the tackle before he could even make his first step in some cases. I think you were one of the 1st here to shine light on Akers coming out of HS and I tried following him the best I could. I don't really need him to start this year but I love to see what he's going to do, personally I believe it's going to be something special.
Tex
EBF
Footballguy
I still like him, but the price doesn't make sense to me. I just don't think the price factors in much bust risk, when the player seems to have a lot of it.
One of the stats I like to look at with RB prospects is long run % because it can offer hints of explosiveness and Akers really suffers here. Last season he ranked 21st in carries among NCAA players with 231, but was behind 43 players in long runs, with just 8 rushes of 20+. His sophomore year was even more futile, with just 3 long runs on 161 attempts. He wasn't great in this department as a freshman either. That's the real puzzle here: Is this guy just not very good or was his usage so bad that we never really saw what he can do? Here are the 2019 long run percentages for some of the top backs in this draft:
CEH - 7.4%
Dobbins - 6.6%
Swift - 5.6%
Evans - 4.7%
Taylor - 4.1%
Vaughn - 4.0%
Dillon - 3.5%
Akers - 3.5%
He did not excel at creating explosive plays in his college career and always had a relatively pedestrian YPC in general. Now, this doesn't have to be the kiss of death. Other successful NFL backs like Zeke and Jacobs did not necessarily have great long run stats in college. I remember way back in the day Steven Jackson had a very underwhelming YPC in his last season at Oregon State, where he was the sole focus of opposing defenses. I've seen a back as great as Adrian Peterson get dominated because his supporting cast failed him (bowl game vs. USC). It's possible for a situation to be so bad that no back can thrive.
I'm just not sure this applies to Akers. For a guy with his physical talent, you probably would've expected more big plays, even on a lackluster team. For example, Cook in his final season at FSU had a 6.1 YPC and 4.5% long run percentage. Akers has quality size, quickness, and speed, but also isn't elite in any of these areas. Is he just an athlete whose effectiveness on the football field doesn't match up with the sum of his parts? It's possible.
I also think it's possible that he will thrive in the NFL when he gets a more competent system around him.
As I've said, the issue for me is cost. At the price of a 1.05-1.07 rookie pick, the only way you can really turn a big profit is if he becomes a Ray Rice/LeSean McCoy type of home run and I'm not sure that's very likely. It puts me in a weird position where I don't hate the player, but I also think he's too pricey to justify selecting at his ADP. I will say that I like his tape more than Darrell Henderson's and I think there's a good chance he'll get a long audition in his rookie year to let you know right away whether you have a hit or a miss on your hands.
I agree but I'm still torn on sorting out RB's 3-5 in dynasty. Leaning Dobbins at 5 but really struggling with Akers vs Swift.
But in redraft I can't even fathom having Akers any worse then RB2.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I think this is where we differ in our opinions because it "seems" as if because he had the worst OL in college football (ok, Georgia Tech was the only NCAA team with a worst line) it's been held against him. Would you agree that might/could have something to do with what you're mentioning? I certainly do because (just my opinion) in order for a running back to break off long runs some great block must be part of the equation.
Now, I agree because we don't really know what to expect that he comes with a higher risk vs Dobbins or Swift but I believe his path to starting is much clearer and he is just as talented both as a runner and catch vs the two mentioned. I can absolutely see why someone would prefer to pass on him and take one of the others who might be safer. Again, talent wise I believe he's just as talented and maybe even more than the others including Taylor and CEH whom I love. Cook and Akers didn't play behind the same OL, that coach left FSU's program in shambles.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I can certainly understand being torn but there has to be a reason why. The separation between these guys is a lot closer than what their current ADP. I'm still trying to sort it out myself, one day I'm thinking Swift is out of the big 3, then it's Dobbins the next day then I'm back to Akers. I've game back through a few complete games that I have and I'm leaving very impressed with Akers and much more than the community it seems at times which causes me to take another look and discuss because I do think he may end-up being one of the best in this class.
Tex
EBF
Footballguy
That's the big question, right?
The argument against him would be that he didn't do enough special things to transcend his situation.
For an NFL parallel, you see Mixon on these horrible Bengals teams and he's still able to scrape together respectable numbers because he's just so good that he can pull those plays out of thin air. Even when the play design totally fails him, he can still sometimes turn it into a positive play. Another nice one here. I would say getting more than what's blocked is one of the hallmark traits of a special back. I haven't gone back and looked at Akers in the last couple weeks because all my drafts are over, but off the top of my head I don't recall seeing a lot of plays on his 2019 tape where he was able to do those special things.
As someone with no real horse in this race (I have barely any ownership in this rookie RB class), my recollection is that Clyde and Dobbins had more "wow" type of reps than Akers. They also happened to play on much better offenses, but I'm not sure that was the cause, as what I try to do is isolate the ability separate from the yards created by the scheme/play design. Often times with QBs and RBs you learn most about them when the play breaks down because that's where their special traits are demanded. Anyone can run around the edge for a huge gain when there are no defenders in sight, but only a special back can make those plays like the Mixon reps linked above.
Last edited by a moderator:
Faust
MVP
FSU is still in the ACC, correct? I like-dont-love the player, but this isn't exactly murders row:
Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College,, Alabama State
I'm all for context but you'd think he'd break some runs against these Universities Of Meh.
Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College,, Alabama State
I'm all for context but you'd think he'd break some runs against these Universities Of Meh.
Last edited by a moderator:
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I've actually seen Akers do more than that with a lot less to be honest. While I get where you're coming from I'd rather see this compared to Swift and Dobbins vs an NFL player who struggled year 1 and now has seemed to come into his own. I just believe is a tad unfair to compare and college player to an NFL player and somewhat unbalanced but I get where you're coming from.
To your 1st point of 20+ rushing yds, here (highlights) all of his rushing TDs went for 30, 40 and even 50 yds and he wasn't running at full speed also the passes he caught out of the backfield looks so effortless and these are from 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unW-NbYt1xc
Ray did an analysis on Akers, I believe it was on twitter that was well done and it was based on your 2nd point, I'll see if I can find it.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Thanks Faust, I remember this article.
That all being said, look at the numbers that Akers was able to put up during his three-year FSU career:
Carries: 586
Yards: 2,864
Yards After Contact: 2,186
Broken Tackles: 144
10+ Yard Runs: 80
TDs: 27
First-Down Carries: 127
Receiving Yards: 483
Yards After the Catch: 597
Receiving TDs: 7
Receiving First-Downs: 14
Broken Tackles (after catch): 19
These are remarkable numbers.
Tex
That all being said, look at the numbers that Akers was able to put up during his three-year FSU career:
Carries: 586
Yards: 2,864
Yards After Contact: 2,186
Broken Tackles: 144
10+ Yard Runs: 80
TDs: 27
First-Down Carries: 127
Receiving Yards: 483
Yards After the Catch: 597
Receiving TDs: 7
Receiving First-Downs: 14
Broken Tackles (after catch): 19
These are remarkable numbers.
Tex
I've barely seen anything negative about Akers, and when there is some doubt expressed about his prospects it's usually excused away by the offensive line issues. I've seen more than one analyst on Twitter or elsewhere claim he's their #1 back, basically no one has him outside the top 5, so it's hard to see how he's undervalued. I like his landing spot, but I liked Henderson too last year so who knows. I don't think he's the special talent many make him out to be but he's going to get the chance to be 'the guy' it seems and that's valuable. He's a pass at his ADP for me though.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
#1. Not once did i say that anyone has said anything "negative" about Akers so I don't know why you would even say that. I want the conversation but please don't add anything into it this is how threads turn in a direction that it shouldn't.
#2. I've been very specific about this and I've said he should be mentioned in the top 3 running back conversation not top 5 and if you don't think he's undervalued then that ok too. Then you clearer not the one I'm trying to start the conversation with. I'm looking for dialogue as to why or why not he is #3 behind Taylor and CEH.
Tex
Last edited by a moderator:
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It's very possible he outperforms both, but I still prefer Taylor and CEH over Akers. More so Taylor than CEH long term. I like Akers and believe he will be solid. He sure is cheaper than the aforementioned two also.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Agreed, Akers vs Henderson/Brown is a clearer path when compared to Dobbins vs Ingram or Swift vs Johnson and if I believe that Akers is just as if not more talented then Dobbins and Swift then he should be #3. With the challenges he was dealing with his body of work is impressive. I think I just answered what I was looking for. I'm sure at this point I'll keep him at #3 and focus on Dobbins vs Swift at 4. I was higher on Swift throughout the year so I may keep him at #4 and put Dobbins at #5 especially with Ingram who only because of injury is not going to go away as easily.
Tex
Zyphros
Footballguy
No one has any RB worth a damn outside their top5. There aren't any good RB's after that group. It's full of replaceable talent or slight roles instead of dominant ones. 2020 class is the top5, that's it.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think taking Akers over Dobbins will prove to be a mistake. I think Dobbins is the better talent in comparison to Akers but there are many factors outside that as well. The Rams seem to be trending downward in a tough division. They needed oline help and failed to address it. Instead investing in a RB, WR, TE and even a K on the offensive side. Baltimore is about as solid as an orgnaization as there is in the league. They have a young, dynamic franchise quarterback who opens up space just with his threat to run. This setup made Gus Edwards look like a king at times. Dobbins is a master at the RPO game and translates perfectly to this offense. I will bet on the better player (IMO) in a system perfectly tailored to his abilities versus an environment in which they seem to be struggling to find an identity. Akers will have to be much better than Dobbins is talent wise in order to exceed him in production.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Tex, I like Swift’s skill set and think water will eventually find its level. But he is on Detroit and until the coaching staff changes I don’t have high hopes. Patricia is an RBBC fan and OC Bevel never has really liked passing to RBs.
My tiers would be:
Dobbins, CEH
Taylor
Swift, Akers
And maybe I am wrong about Akers, honestly I would like to like him more. Willing to listen as I know less about him than the others but just don’t love his situation. He does seem to be strong in the passing game which is important to me when drafting a back. Overall this group is pretty close and I could see anyone emerging as the top guy if things fall right. I just love the Dobbins/CEH fits best and something about Taylor makes me hesitate, just not sure what. If Taylor ended up in Detroit he would probably be at the 5 spot for me.
My concern on Dobbins hitting big upside that Ravens only threw to it Rb's 54 times last season but he does seem like a safe bet to be at least really solid once his role is solidified. Ironically Rams were second worst at throwing to RB's but we've seen Gurley have big production in passing game so I'm not as worried about that.
And I appreciate that you said you "think" Dobbins is a better talent then Akers rather then a definitive statement that he is but obviously that's not an opinion shared by the Rams.
I can't dispute the fact that when Dobbins runs vs when Akers runs that life should be a lot easier on Dobbins. But the immediate crowd in Baltimore, Akers seemingly clear path IMO to starting job, and my worry over Dobbins long term upside in the passing game are reasons I got them pretty close but do lean Akers.
Sometimes team makeup can make these close calls. I had a league with pick 4 and and was mulling Dobbins or Akers and whoever I picked would be my RB4 and I had my top two RB's handcuffed(Mattison and Latavius). In a case like that I went Dobbins because I was not concerned so much about the immediate production and looking long term for when my two 25 year old top two RB's are older and I felt Dobbins would have less wear and tear next few years then Akers.
IMO if you need a RB now I'd highly recommend Akers over Swift and Dobbins. If you are playing your teams like a stock, I would again recommend Akers as I think his situations is most ideal for a big immediate role. If you don't play it like a stock and want to take a long term draft and hold approach I'd lean Swift or Dobbins, in that order.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Totally agree the situation leaves a lot to be desired for Akers. Disagree that Dobbins is the better talent. That's why I've enjoyed all this talk about these RB's this year. It really does come down to what you prefer. Talent vs situation. I believe Akers is the better talent in the worse situation. You believe Dobbins is the better talent AND the better situation. I think Akers' situation doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but then again there isn't a big RB threat there in his way and his HC is innovative enough that it gives me hope he can make it work. Ingram is still there for Dobbins and overall is the better situation. How much do you weigh the path for touches? Not that Ingram is likely to be in the way long term for Dobbins.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Ingram is there for one more year unless Dobbins is not as talented as I think he is. I can be patient for a year if I feel like the reward is worth it. I may end up with Akers in my draft and not opposed to taking him in the right spot. I do worry about the Rams as I feel like none of what they are doing makes much sense. Seems to be an organization trying to find it identity in a division of an ascending ARI and already there SEA/SF. Maybe I am underselling Akers and admittedly I think he is a tough eval based on the quality of team he played on. I do like that he appears to be an above average receiver and seems to grade alright in pass pro.
Willing to be sold on Akers, just love the situation/talent mesh that Dobbins has with BAL.
Geez, didn’t think my innocuous post would hit a nerve but whatever. I’ll stay out of it. Just thought it was weird to say Akers is undervalued when it seems like the majority of the dynasty community is very high on him, that’s all. Not seeing much, if any “negative” commentary about him to me is an indicator that people aren’t undervaluing him. Don’t see how that’s adding something that’s not relevant to the discussion.
If you think he’s in the conversation with Taylor and CEH for top RB then you obviously would see him as undervalued. That’s fine, carry on.
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
Perhaps I am a bit jaded after being burned by previously drafting Detroit rbs, but I certainly agree with this. Enough that (gulp) I dropped Swift out of my rookie top 10. He can be someone elses headache. Certainly he is talented and If I am wrong, I can live with that.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Wow, that is very telling of what he could do with a better OL. Thanks for posting that.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Huh? I guess that makes sense since so many RBs catchpoints are behind the LOS but still. Maybe this is just a stat I'm not accustomed to looking at. Seems hard to have more YAC than actual yards.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well if this is the criteria then I guess we should all have Keshawn Vaughn as our 1.01 because he outproduced Akers on an even worse team while playing against stiffer competition.
This FSU stuff is way overblown. Productive college RB prospects come from bad overmatched teams with bad O-lines all the time. A lot worse teams than a .500 FSU squad.
Last edited by a moderator:
jm192
Footballguy
I think it's pretty common for RB's. As you said they're often behind the LOS. So your starting point is -2. You get 12 YAC, but only 10 yards gained.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
LOL, have at but I've seen people Vaughn as #1 so there you go maybe.....................but he can stay #5 commonsense over nonsense.
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Let's say for a moment he is right, it's horrible FF move not to trade down to the mid-first and still get Vaughn and pick up another 1st from the current draft or one from what will be another great draft in 2021.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Vaughn was a transfer after 2 years at Illinois, that's usually a red flag for me. Broke out as a freshman, as did Akers, but got worse in his 2nd year at Illinois. Transferred out and broke out again at Vanderbilt, again to go worse his next year. Akers got worse as well, but bounced back in his final year. Not a huge deal and the transfer might have had something to do with along with both being on awful teams, but it does raise my eyebrow a bit. Vaughn was also a 4 year starter in college and is 23, while Akers is 21. Akers has way better numbers in the tackle breaking department as well as the athleticism testing numbers, resulting in likely the better draft capital. And in my own opinion better film.
If anything Vaughn is just a poor mans Akers. Not sure if you're implying they should be comparable or if you're just a bit annoyed with "FSU is bad" excuse. Either way, I think it's very clear that Akers is the better overall prospect than Vaughn is.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I started the thread on him and made an obvious joke in the title about him being a 1.01 candidate. It was a joke. I haven't seen anyone on this board arguing for him there.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
It was in the "rookie draft" thread I believe. It wasn't talked about much but another poster brought it up. Not that it matters much because who really know what player will be great and what player will not make it in the NFL. None of us really do we are all taking a guess based on some type of observation. If I was to draft him it will be at 1.10 but I don't think he'll last that long.
Tex
