What history is that, making Lynch one of the biggest workhorses and best FF RBs in the league?
You guys patting yourself on the back for dealing him as if you somehow predicted this gruesome injury are comical.
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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Borden
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You guys patting yourself on the back for dealing him as if you somehow predicted this gruesome injury are comical.
Idk if I would do that, I guess if you don't have many bench spots I could see it but I think he has a good chance to be the starter next year. That's originally why I added him this offseason.
Rawls and lacy are most likely gone after this year. That leaves Carson, prosise and mckissic, yes they probably draft a RB but with there line problems I'd guess they take one later in the draft and have Carson as the #1
Another big thing that is in his favor is that he was a 7th round pick so his cap hit is very small, he has performed already and pretty much everyone on the team thought he was gonna be great so why take a rb early and have to pay one more money when u have a good cheap one already
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I don't know thats true. I think if Lacy does well he may stick. Pete likes big backs. I also don't think you can count on a back that hasnt really done it in college. Im betting they draft one, resign Lacy, and Carson comes back to comPETE.
JFS171
Footballguy
I'm not trying to pat myself on the back, but I did advise selling to the more eager Carson fan in your league because I saw a plausible scenario where the hype leading up to the Colts game was the peak of Carson's value. Obviously no one can predict injuries, but Carroll has been shuffling these guys around a bit, using and talking up Lacy, Rawls, Prosise, and even McKissic in addition to Carson.
Assuming Carson doesn't get hurt, I still think option 2 above, which I mentioned on Saturday morning for those thinking about selling, was playing out to Joe Casual football fan. Carson got hurt with 6:37 left in the 4th. Lacy had 28 yards rushing after that, and McKissic caught the 27 yard TD. My guess is Carson would've had some of that from Lacy, maybe, but you're still looking at 12 carries for 42 yards before he got hurt. Say we give him another 15 yards on 3 more carries and you're still left looking at 15 for 57. Meanwhile Lacy got 8 carries before Carson was hurt, McKissic added another 4 carries before Carson was hurt, and McKissic scored twice. Point being, even with Carson emerging from that game healthy, his value would've taken a big hit to casual football fan because casual fan sees a ho-hum rushing line, some dude you've never heard of score twice, and Eddie Lacy get nearly as much work and be essentially as productive.
That was my fear. That's why I sold in half of my leagues and was trying desperately to sell in the others. I felt his value had peaked.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Doesn't look like it's been confirmed yet
Chris Carson - RB - Seahawks
NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Seahawks believe Chris Carson suffered a broken ankle Week 4 against the Colts.
It is not a surprise after Carson was carted off the field wearing an air cast on his lower leg and coach Pete Carroll called the injury "significant." With Carson likely out for the season, both Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls need to be added in every format. Lacy seems like the better bet of the two.
I've been discussing his potential from a dynasty perspective, and even if he ended with a mediocre game last night (which we don't know, what if he broke a TD?), his long term value wouldn't have moved much at all. Still the starter, still comfortably leading the RBs in touches, and they still were making other "talked up" RBs inactive. I don't really have casual fans in my leagues anyway, and the consensus there was that he looked really good last night pre-injury.
Bottom line, you guys selling weren't "right" because he suffered a fluke injury- there's no way of knowing what would have happened the rest of the way without it.
JFS171
Footballguy
I'm not saying the sellers were right because of a fluke injury, but I do believe the bolded above is some rose colored glasses.
There were red flags here. I don't see how his value wouldn't have taken a hit last night even if he stays healthy, baring breaking a run for a TD in the last 6 minutes of the game, which may or may not have been equally flukey. He was sub-4.0 YPC, another back on his team scored twice and may have been the "breakout star" who "looked electric," and Carson basically lost his monopoly on the snap count and touches. All of those would've reduced his value.
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JFS171
Footballguy
You're acting like you lost a league winner and I'm the guy that should go away? What'd I do? Point out that he hasn't exactly been elite?
Ok fine. Enjoy the thread.
ATB
Footballguy
I feel like Carson was only in at that point in the game because Carroll was like, "I don't feel I've seen enough game action from Chris Carson, let's get him a few more carries guys..." while totally neglecting to acknowledge that THERE WERE 3 QUARTERS OF GAME TIME TO GET HIM THE BALL PRIOR TO THAT TO SATISFY HIS MORBID CURIOSITY FOR HOW MANY HITS THE GUY COULD TAKE AND STILL GET BACK UP.
#### Pete Carroll. What an egregious display of incompetence.
Carson should've been ridden hard for 3 quarters and benched to allow the mouth-breather, Lacy, to close out the game.
Now Seattle is stuck with Lacy as their lead back until Rawls is healthy enough to take over. Carroll deserves this ####.
#### Pete Carroll. What an egregious display of incompetence.
Carson should've been ridden hard for 3 quarters and benched to allow the mouth-breather, Lacy, to close out the game.
Now Seattle is stuck with Lacy as their lead back until Rawls is healthy enough to take over. Carroll deserves this ####.
Of course there are red flags, but what do you think his value was? People were talking about a 2nd round rookie pick in here- if he would have ended the game healthy with your pessimistic mediocre game, do you think he would have only been worth a 5th rounder? He never had a monopoly on the snap count and touches to lose, and without seeing how the game unfolded we'll never know if the split would have been much different than the first 3 weeks.
He had a sub 4.0 YPC the last time they led in the 4th qtr too, then he went 5 carries for 41 yards on their final drive- it wouldn't have been a fluke for him to do something he's already done before, and McKissic may never have that 2nd TD if Carson doesn't get hurt.
Don't know what to tell you- no way of knowing how the rest of the game would have unfolded without the injury, and even in your pessimistic scenario, his long-term value would not have fallen much if any. Of course, even if it had, it could have shot back up again as early as next week. One game rarely makes a huge difference in value long term, and certainly nothing in that game would have warranted it (other than injury, obviously).
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BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
MattFancy
Footballguy
I couldn't figure out how Seattle's was rotating backs last night. It seemed like Carson would get a carry, then go to the sideline and in would come Lacy. Then, Lacy would get a carry and in would come Carson. 2 weeks ago, Carson got 20 carries. Why were they afraid to give him the bulk of the work last night? Was just a weird game and now it's made worse by Carson being out for the season possible. Strange rotation Carroll was running last night.
Hilts
Footballguy
Yes you are. Just stop.
A correct conclusion because of a faulty process isn't worthy of praise. It's dumb luck, pure and simple.
JFS171
Footballguy
Let me first say I appreciate the way you generally handle your posts, even when you disagree. Others could stand to take a lesson.
Secondly - there were obviously believers he had established himself. I sold Carson and a early-mid 3rd for Mike Williams and a mid-late 2nd in one league. I sold Carson, Kupp, and Lynch for Jeffery and Martin in another keeper league. I doubt I could've gotten those deals after last night, even if he was fully healthy. Obviously leagues are different and YMMV, but I wasn't the only one in this thread who said he'd received solid offers for Carson, so most leagues probably had a few believers (some bigger than others).
Regardless, it's a terrible injury and it sucks for his owners, of which I am one in multiple leagues despite my best efforts to sell. And it hurts - everyone who owned him was hoping they had a guy to count on at least as a flex (again, in this same boat in multiple leagues).
I guess I'm bristling more at the "good outcome =/= good process" type of comments when the red flags were apparent with both his talent/physical ability (as I've discussed ad nauseum) and the situation. I'm not sure how it was a bad process to consider selling high there, but I suppose that depends on the offers in an individual league. I certainly don't believe exploring those offers was bad process at all.
Your reading comprehension skills need some work. Where did I pat myself on the back? The history I was referring to was Carroll is notorious for not sticking with 1 RB it seems (since Lynch has been gone), their horrid o-line, and not to mention, before he got hurt, he wasn't exactly the bell-cow RB in last night's game. Even if he never got hurt I'd still say you should move him if you can...
I appreciate the conversation. Reasonable people can have different opinions, and I welcome reasonable alternatives to mine.JFS171 said:Let me first say I appreciate the way you generally handle your posts, even when you disagree. Others could stand to take a lesson.
Secondly - there were obviously believers he had established himself. I sold Carson and a early-mid 3rd for Mike Williams and a mid-late 2nd in one league. I sold Carson, Kupp, and Lynch for Jeffery and Martin in another keeper league. I doubt I could've gotten those deals after last night, even if he was fully healthy. Obviously leagues are different and YMMV, but I wasn't the only one in this thread who said he'd received solid offers for Carson, so most leagues probably had a few believers (some bigger than others).
Regardless, it's a terrible injury and it sucks for his owners, of which I am one in multiple leagues despite my best efforts to sell. And it hurts - everyone who owned him was hoping they had a guy to count on at least as a flex (again, in this same boat in multiple leagues).
I guess I'm bristling more at the "good outcome =/= good process" type of comments when the red flags were apparent with both his talent/physical ability (as I've discussed ad nauseum) and the situation. I'm not sure how it was a bad process to consider selling high there, but I suppose that depends on the offers in an individual league. I certainly don't believe exploring those offers was bad process at all.
It's about perspective I guess- I'd say Carson had established himself, to the extent that he was a ~RB 3/flex now with room to grow. I wouldn't say those trades were too good to refuse at the time or anything, Mike Williams has a herniated disk and has yet to play a down in the NFL, and there are a wide range of player values in your other deal. More importantly, I just don't see how last night would have moved the needle much. When Carson was injured Lacy had 7 carries for 23 yards and zero targets and McKissic had the one TD run but only 4 overall carries and also zero targets. If he hadn't gotten injured, we don't know how it would have played out, so that's all speculation. Sure, it's league specific, and perhaps your leagues over react more than most, but generally speaking dynasty values don't swing wildly from week to week. Even if in your specific leagues you wouldn't have been able to make those same trades after last night, that doesn't mean that later in the year you wouldn't have been able to make an even better deal, so you really can't say with any certainty that prior to the game would have been his peak.
The reason you're getting those comments is because most think his value didn't drop because of those red flags, it dropped because of a freak injury. I know you've discussed it ad nauseum, and I appreciate the reasoning but I just disagree. It's possible that his hamstring injury was responsible for his poor 3 cone time making your argument pretty much moot from the get go, but those links you provided seem to pretty conclusively debunk the idea that you need a high agility score to be a successful FF RB. His other numbers show him to be a more than adequate athlete, and his game tape shows him to be a more than adequate talent IMO.
I agree that it wasn't a bad process to consider selling high there, I started this exchange by saying I'd sell anyone for the right price, I just disagree with your premise about his talent/physical ability and about how drastically his value would have moved after last night without injury. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you (the generic you) certainly can't use the injury to say you were right. Unfortunately, we'll never really know.
Lolz. You can't conveniently ignore Lynch, considering he makes up the majority of Carroll's tenure there, and he's also fed Rawls heavily during the limited times he's been healthy. Heck, Christine Michael was fed last year as well. No idea where this notion that Carroll is a massive RBBC guy comes from, but it isn't based on reality. His "history with his RBs" is a major plus.Sitch said:
Oh, and at the time of his injury Carson had more than 1/2 of the RB carries and all of the RB targets/receptions. Not exactly "the sky is falling".
BINGBING
Footballguy
Anyone else want to get back on topic as to what to do with him in dynasty? I own him in all three of my leagues and am at a loss. There is a lot of season left and I feel like it could be foolish to pass on other potential future waiver gems to stash a 7th round pick that may still have an awful O-Line next year and may be competing against a higher pedigree RB from the draft. I like what I saw in him or I wouldn't have owned him in every league, but he has some things going against him now. I think I could get by with dropping him and scooping him back onto my roster just before the fantasy season ends.
Others that are stashing guys like Joe Williams and Jake Butt on IR like myself, I am thinking the move is to drop Carson and once Butt or Joe Williams are activated you have a decent chance to pick Carson back up and stash him in the open IR spot. Of course this all depends on the number of roster spots you have.
Others that are stashing guys like Joe Williams and Jake Butt on IR like myself, I am thinking the move is to drop Carson and once Butt or Joe Williams are activated you have a decent chance to pick Carson back up and stash him in the open IR spot. Of course this all depends on the number of roster spots you have.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Has anyone been able to trade him? Wondering if I should take anything I can get for him at this point since he seemed like even if he did well he was going to be a 1-year guy.
ATB
Footballguy
No ####, because of game flow. He had not been utilized in the fashion we expected (and he deserved) and therefore we were all hoping for garbage time points. But putting fantasy aside for the moment, he objectively should not have been in the game. Carroll is notorious for undervaluing his RBs. Carson was his lead back. He healthiest back, in fact. Yet he was in the game at a time when the Colts were frustrated and trying make big plays on defense.davearm said:
It's the reason teams sit their starters when the game is out of hand. Crazier things happen in garbage time than any other time.
The guy put up 42 yards on 12 carries. Last week, 34 yards on 11 carries. Surely a lot of blame goes to the OL, but that's not a recipe for success, so I'm not understanding what you think he did to deserve some huge workload.
That notwithstanding, it's still bizarre that you're pissed at Pete Carroll for having Carson in the game in the 4th Q, when that's exactly what you would have wanted.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
None of us deserved Chris Carson.
Boston
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Patch for the back of our helmets
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/312WTTo-ivL._SX355_.jpg
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think he had a chance to be a guy that stuck, but now I am wondering if he will be just another what might have been.
The only hope I am holding out is that the Seahawks like to give their running back projects many chances even if they don't have much invested. Looks at Rawls, and Michael.
ATB
Footballguy
Don't tell me what I "would have wanted," #######. When he was in for the 4th Q, I literally said out loud, "Why the #### are you throwing him to the wolves?" I thought the same thing about Russ too. Any coach worth half his salt would sit any starters he could in a game they literally could no longer lose.
ATB
Footballguy
I don't think you understood my meaning, there. I said "we all wanted garbage points" because he was not utilized in the fashion he should have been. And then I immediately followed that statement with, "Putting FF aside, he should not have been in the game." I don't want my players served up on a platter for backups to try to make a name for themselves. Or for frustrated defenders to try to punish for their own sins.You already told us that's what you wanted.
So you can take both those statements and choose to ignore the one that disagrees with you if you want. That's your prerogative.
ATB
Footballguy
And yet here I am telling you numerous times that I was more worried about the kid's health than my fantasy team. Also, I was already winning by about 100 points anyway so yes, the last thing on my mind was garbage points. Which is why I said "we were all hoping for garbage points," signifying a collective. "The Association of Chris Carson Owners," if you will. ACCO.
And again: there is no excuse to run your starters into the ground in the 4th Q of a blowout. Simple as hell.
ATB
Footballguy
Oh absolutely. And I acknowledged that earlier. I'm talking about REAL football more than fantasy. In the game of football, you sit your stars when the game is out of hand for exactly the reason that we saw on Sunday night. What if that happened to Russ? You think ESPN would be giving Carroll a pass on keeping him a game they'd already won? Hell no. And they shouldn't give him a pass on leaving his starting RB in either.
Not to get off topic but I agree about Carroll almost never pulling guys... I wanna say it was 2 years ago when Russell went on that crazy spurt the second half of the year and they would be winning by 3 tds most of the time to start the 4th and he left Russell in there. I told my friend that owned him that all it would take his one hit to Russell and there goes the Seahawks season, fortunately that didn't happen but it looks like it might have hurt them this year depending on what the other rbs end up doing
On topic, it's early still but it sounds like the team is optimistic that he may be back later in the season. In redraft he's an easy drop but in dynasty I think he's a hold or if U really don't want him in out him on the block, i would think most owners if they had an IR spot would throw you a 3rd pick
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yup. Lacy is done and Rawls has some of the worst vision/instincts I've seen in a long time.
Carson was their best RB. So was Collins.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I made a note of this in my rankings during the preseason. "OL sucks, can't run, bump Baldwin's targets."
