RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (2 Viewers)

[CalBear]

The theory I've heard most is that white European  players are better versed in the fundamentals of the game  than their white American counterparts. 

That is possibly a true statement, and possibly a partial answer. 

The more complete answer is that the difference in success between white American basketball players and white European players is cultural. It's related to who is playing where, which sports kids have access to or choose to spend time on, and which positions they're tracked into. It's the same reason why whites and blacks have differential success in basketball and football vs. lacrosse and bike racing.

It's likely that there are plenty of white guys with McCaffrey's measurables who are playing something other than football, or that were encouraged to play QB from a young age and didn't develop McCaffrey's receiving and RB skills. But here we have a case where we're looking at the kid of a former NFL Pro Bowl WR. He's been groomed since birth to be an offensive skill position player, which is not common among white guys. And given that his athleticism appears pretty solid, both measurably and on tape, it would seem prudent to assume that athleticism won't be a problem for him. And instead of looking for absurd comparisons like Toby Gerhart, we can look for reasonable comparisons like Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, Lesean McCoy, and estimate where we think McCaffrey will fall on the spectrum of shifty RBs who are great pass catchers, and a little on the skinny side. 

 

[TheFanatic]

If the theory is that white guys don't fill those positions because they're generally less athletic, why would him being white matter if his athleticism is an outlier for a white guy and matches up with other guys at the position?

This. No, white guys have not fared well at the position for quite some time. Doesn't mean no white guy will ever be good at RB ever again. I'd be happy to have this guy on my team as I think he will succeed in the NFL no matter where he goes. 

 

[menobrown]

Well, it was just tested.

Yes. He's the son of a long time succesful NFL player and he's the grandson of a Olympic silver medal sprinter and he just aced every test. If anyone had reservations on how how athletic he is those should be put to rest.

 

[kutta]

Well, it was just tested.

If the athleticism that was just measured is an indicator for NFL success then Jerick McKinnon would be an all-pro.

 

[gianmarco]

If the athleticism that was just measured is an indicator for NFL success then Jerick McKinnon would be an all-pro.

As if that's the only thing McCaffrey has going for him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If the athleticism that was just measured is an indicator for NFL success then Jerick McKinnon would be an all-pro.

That was in response to you stating "I'm not sure we know his athleticism is an outlier". We do know that. I'll admit we do not know if that will translate or not into NFL success since I don't put as much stock in the combine as some.

 

[kutta]

That was in response to you stating "I'm not sure we know his athleticism is an outlier". We do know that. I'll admit we do not know if that will translate or not into NFL success since I don't put as much stock in the combine as some.

I'm saying defining "athleticism" is difficult. What we just measured may or may not be the athleticism needed for success in the NFL.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm saying defining "athleticism" is difficult. What we just measured may or may not be the athleticism needed for success in the NFL.

I'm guessing that the combine tests for RBs are set up to measure the levels of athleticism that they think are helpful for success in the NFL. However there's more to being a successful RB at the NFL level than just "athleticism" such as vision, durability, balance, strength and likely other factors as well.

 

[CalBear]

I'm saying defining "athleticism" is difficult. What we just measured may or may not be the athleticism needed for success in the NFL.

Sure. Lots of athletic guys don't make it. Let's talk about some guys with characteristics similar to McCaffrey who have made it or haven't, and why they succeeded or failed. And let's not talk about the color of their uniforms or their skin, because both of those are entirely irrelevant.

 

[Grahamburn]

Seems like one of the few guys you could actually call "can't miss."  Athletic, intelligent, work ethic, bloodline, etc. 

 

[lod001]

Seems like one of the few guys you could actually call "can't miss."  Athletic, intelligent, work ethic, bloodline, etc. 

This is what separates 2 athletic guys in the NFL. That's what the intense interview process is all about. Try and see if the guys is going to work his ### off or collect paychecks like Mike Williams, Jerry Porter and Robert Meachem. I pay attention to minicamp after they are drafted. NFL teams don't have that luxury but FF owners do.

1. 'He's dominating at practice'.

2. 'He's coming along at practice'  red flag,

 

[Grahamburn]

I just don't see how anyone can look at the production, watch his highlights, see the numbers at the combine (not to mention the way he looked getting to those numbers), and then come to any conclusion that he'll somehow not be successful in the NFL.  I mean, he broke Barry Sanders' all purpose yardage record.  Barry freaking Sanders.

A smart OC is going to make this kid into what he all hoped Percy Harvin would be. 

The "workhorse" and "bell-cow" back stuff is so silly to me.  He's going to be a star. 

 

[Labrynth]

This is what separates 2 athletic guys in the NFL. That's what the intense interview process is all about. Try and see if the guys is going to work his ### off or collect paychecks like Mike Williams, Jerry Porter and Robert Meachem. I pay attention to minicamp after they are drafted. NFL teams don't have that luxury but FF owners do.

1. 'He's dominating at practice'.

2. 'He's coming along at practice'  red flag,

Read an old article this morning in SI that I hadn't seen before.  

http://www.si.com/college-football/2016/05/17/christian-mccaffrey-cant-be-summed-his-achievements

" Last winter McCaffrey went undefeated in the 6 a.m. training competitions, from the obstacle course to the 10-yard fight. Strength coach Shannon Turley tries to break all prized recruits over the course of their first year with a series of grueling tests, including a VersaClimber death march. McCaffrey was the first player Turley couldn't rattle. "He basically had a Navy SEAL sniper response," the coach says. Turley now designs a special workout just for him. "

 

[menobrown]

This is what separates 2 athletic guys in the NFL. That's what the intense interview process is all about. Try and see if the guys is going to work his ### off or collect paychecks like Mike Williams, Jerry Porter and Robert Meachem. I pay attention to minicamp after they are drafted. NFL teams don't have that luxury but FF owners do.

1. 'He's dominating at practice'.

2. 'He's coming along at practice'  red flag,

Great advice, I do as well. I think a lot of people either don't pay it any attention or give it any merit and would rather just rely on their scouting eye or something.  It's absolutely useful info and while it's certainly not some 100% predictor I think it helps more often than not.

Could give a lot of examples but here is one. Ebron fit #2 above if not worse, Hunter Henry fit #1 above.

 

[petekrum]

I just don't see how anyone can look at the production, watch his highlights, see the numbers at the combine (not to mention the way he looked getting to those numbers), and then come to any conclusion that he'll somehow not be successful in the NFL.  I mean, he broke Barry Sanders' all purpose yardage record.  Barry freaking Sanders.

A smart OC is going to make this kid into what he all hoped Percy Harvin would be. 

The "workhorse" and "bell-cow" back stuff is so silly to me.  He's going to be a star. 

I guess we'll see.

 

[Grahamburn]

I can't wait to revisit this thread a year or two down the road.

You've posted a lot in this thread how much you dislike him, but haven't really taken a stance.  I think you need to qualify your position if you want to claim bragging rights a year or two down the road.

I think it's fine to like Fournette, Cook, or whoever, ahead of him, but what makes you right in this particular case?  Will he get hurt?  Released?  Not make a 53 man roster?  I haven't seen anyone in here claim he'll be a 350-400 touch player, and if that's the only thing you're looking for in a RB, great, but there are only about zero of those guys left in the NFL. 

McCaffrey is exactly the kind of player offensive minds are looking for now.  The match-up nightmare.  

He solidified himself as a first round pick with his combine over the weekend, which likely entitles him to a fairly prolific role on the offense he ends up on.  If all of the other warning signs about his talent are any indication I'm guessing he excels with the 10+ carries and 5+ receptions a game he's likely to receive.

 

[kutta]

You've posted a lot in this thread how much you dislike him, but haven't really taken a stance.  I think you need to qualify your position if you want to claim bragging rights a year or two down the road.

I think it's fine to like Fournette, Cook, or whoever, ahead of him, but what makes you right in this particular case?  Will he get hurt?  Released?  Not make a 53 man roster?  I haven't seen anyone in here claim he'll be a 350-400 touch player, and if that's the only thing you're looking for in a RB, great, but there are only about zero of those guys left in the NFL. 

McCaffrey is exactly the kind of player offensive minds are looking for now.  The match-up nightmare.  

He solidified himself as a first round pick with his combine over the weekend, which likely entitles him to a fairly prolific role on the offense he ends up on.  If all of the other warning signs about his talent are any indication I'm guessing he excels with the 10+ carries and 5+ receptions a game he's likely to receive.

Good point.

The pro-CM folks need to do the same.

The interesting thing is that I think we are all going to come back in here and say "I told you so" because he's probably going to be a hybrid player that puts up pretty good numbers and returns punt. I think everyone is saying that, but for some reason we are arguing.

For the record, I do not think he will do much rushing on first and second downs. I think he'll catch passes out of the a slot and backfield and return punts. I see him with 12 ish touches per game and for fantasy in PPR, he'll be around RB 16-21.

 

[lod001]

I gotta wait to see where he goes. I'd like to see him in Philly, Oak or Indy more so than DEN. Each has a better QB situation.

 

[gianmarco]

Good point.

The pro-CM folks need to do the same.

The interesting thing is that I think we are all going to come back in here and say "I told you so" because he's probably going to be a hybrid player that puts up pretty good numbers and returns punt. I think everyone is saying that, but for some reason we are arguing.

For the record, I do not think he will do much rushing on first and second downs. I think he'll catch passes out of the a slot and backfield and return punts. I see him with 12 ish touches per game and for fantasy in PPR, he'll be around RB 16-21.

How do those numbers change if his skin was darker?

 

[petekrum]

You've posted a lot in this thread how much you dislike him, but haven't really taken a stance.  I think you need to qualify your position if you want to claim bragging rights a year or two down the road.

I think it's fine to like Fournette, Cook, or whoever, ahead of him, but what makes you right in this particular case?  Will he get hurt?  Released?  Not make a 53 man roster?  I haven't seen anyone in here claim he'll be a 350-400 touch player, and if that's the only thing you're looking for in a RB, great, but there are only about zero of those guys left in the NFL. 

McCaffrey is exactly the kind of player offensive minds are looking for now.  The match-up nightmare.  

He solidified himself as a first round pick with his combine over the weekend, which likely entitles him to a fairly prolific role on the offense he ends up on.  If all of the other warning signs about his talent are any indication I'm guessing he excels with the 10+ carries and 5+ receptions a game he's likely to receive.

I've more than qualified my opinion on him throughout this thread. A niche player, will never be the top RB on his team, a flex player,  better as an actual NFL player than a fantasy one.

 

[thatguy]

I gotta wait to see where he goes. I'd like to see him in Philly, Oak or Indy more so than DEN. Each has a better QB situation.

I want him to go to Denver because I'm a Broncos homer. In no way do I think it's the ideal landing spot from a fantasy perspective.  However, Denver has signed Mike McCoy as its offensive coordinator and I know he's creative enough to use McCaffrey in a lot of different ways and create mismatches aplenty. This is the guy who went from Kyle Orton to Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning and was able to get the best out of all of them. He's not a one system guy--he's not afraid to change things up drastically to maximize the skills of the personnel he has at his disposal.

 

[kutta]

How do those numbers change if his skin was darker?

He's probably be a three down RB  in the mode of DJ of Bell.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think you can count the number of "three down" backs on Jason Pierre Paul's one hand.

It's almost a myth and expecting a back to be that means you're going to wait a long time.

 

[kutta]

I think you can count the number of "three down" backs on Jason Pierre Paul's one hand.

It's almost a myth and expecting a back to be that means you're going to wait a long time.

I agree.

So are your expectations, even though he had a great college career and a great combine, that he's a slot guy and catches some passes out of the backfield? Or do you think he'll be a featured back and run through the tackles as well as catch a bunch of passes?

 

[menobrown]

I think you can count the number of "three down" backs on Jason Pierre Paul's one hand.

It's almost a myth and expecting a back to be that means you're going to wait a long time.

Yea everyone shares but this reminds me of the Peterson 2 down back or not conversation. It's kind of semantics.

To me if someone says a three down back it just means a guy who is involved in all phases of the game in all situations. Good rushing volume,  not getting removed on passing downs, not coming out of the game on obvious short yardage downs. That kind of RB.  I would consider someone like Freeman to both be a three down back and part of a RBBC all at the same time.

Personally I  consider someone a two down back who gets high majority of his usage and production via rushing on first two downs or non obvious passing downs.

 

[kutta]

Let's hear from some CM supporters on what they think his career will be like.

Will he be a featured back? Meaning, will he be the RB1 on his team? Will he be a "gadget" player. Will he play the a lot more slot than RB?

Based on his college career and his combine, I would think, if his skin color was different, that most people would consider him a featured back and the best RB on his team. He can also catch very well, so there would have to be a good reason why he wouldn't be a "three down" back.

So what are your predictions, and if you think he's not going to be the featured back for his team, why not?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I agree.

So are your expectations, even though he had a great college career and a great combine, that he's a slot guy and catches some passes out of the backfield? Or do you think he'll be a featured back and run through the tackles as well as catch a bunch of passes?

I think his role will be like Demarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, or Jamaal Charles.

But anyway...why does he need to be compared to anyone? For fantasy purposes, what difference does it make how he gets the points? 

 

[SayWhat?]

I don't see why McCaffrey can't be a 10-12+ carry, 3-5 catch per game RB.  You're talking 14-17 touches per game with total volume on the year of around 200+ carries and 60+ catches.  That's not Bell/Zeke/DJ workload, but it's extremely valuable in ppr leagues. Before knowing his destination, I'd call him a souped up Gio with upside to spare but the key being far less downside since it's likely his team will have sunk a 1st rounder into him.  

 

[kutta]

I think his role will be like Demarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, or Jamaal Charles.

But anyway...why does he need to be compared to anyone? For fantasy purposes, what difference does it make how he gets the points? 

Because I don't think petekrum or I are saying he won't be a decent fantasy option. We are saying he won't be a featured NFL RB.

Do you think he'll score similar fantasy points as the guys you listed? If so, are you willing to wager? Even $1?

 

[kutta]

I don't see why McCaffrey can't be a 10-12+ carry, 3-5 catch per game RB.  You're talking 14-17 touches per game with total volume on the year of around 200+ carries and 60+ catches.  That's not Bell/Zeke/DJ workload, but it's extremely valuable in ppr leagues. Before knowing his destination, I'd call him a souped up Gio with upside to spare but the key being far less downside since it's likely his team will have sunk a 1st rounder into him.  

I'm on board with that. I'll take the low side, but that seems reasonable. 

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

My McCaffrey love juice is all over this thread and in the quoted post below, I'm essentially 1/2 in my predictions.  My quick/glance math has his total yardage this past year at 2,300ish and that's missing 2 games I believe, so yeah, it's safe to assume he would have put up 2,500 yards had he not missed games.  I also think he is the first RB drafted in the real NFL, although not sure he goes top 5 (my 2nd prediction).  It really depends what team falls in love with him and how bad they want him.  

To answer Kutta - I'm predicting RB1 production and usage.  I sure hope the right team drafts him because I'm confident he can be a 3 down workhorse.  I see him getting 15+ rushes per game with another 5+ receptions on top, so I see him as a 20+ touch player in the NFL.  I know he can run between the tackles and handle a RB1 load.  Will the team that drafts him believe that?  I hope so, or he could be a wasted pick.  So much will be decided by the team that drafts him.

I'm calling top 5 now, barring injury.  This guy is super special and he did what he did last year at 19 years old.  I can't wait to see what he does this season.  I'm thinking 2,500 all purpose yards is his floor.  His coaches say he's in better physical shape this season than last.  He's only 20 and still growing and developing.  Sky's the limit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6f6sZfvxm1k

 

[Zyphros]

Can we please stop calling him CM?  Bad memories of Christine Michael go through my mind, and some of the utter stupidity in this thread is approaching those threads as well.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Obviously his size is not ideal for a featured back role but he would not be the first to become one in spite of it.  He weighed in at 8lbs less and 1 inch taller than Dalvin Cook whom no one questions at all.  His size is the same as Chris Johnson and LeSean McCoy weighed in at the combine (McCaffrey is actually a little heavier) and he certainly handled a feature workload in college.

Gun to my head I'd bet on him not ending up a feature back rather than him being one, but it's not at all outside the realm of reasonable possibility like some people here are implying.  5'11" 202lbs with elite athleticism and room to put on a few pounds (McCaffrey is only 20) has given us feature backs before.

 

[kutta]

My McCaffrey love juice is all over this thread and in the quoted post below, I'm essentially 1/2 in my predictions.  My quick/glance math has his total yardage this past year at 2,300ish and that's missing 2 games I believe, so yeah, it's safe to assume he would have put up 2,500 yards had he not missed games.  I also think he is the first RB drafted in the real NFL, although not sure he goes top 5 (my 2nd prediction).  It really depends what team falls in love with him and how bad they want him.  

To answer Kutta - I'm predicting RB1 production and usage.  I sure hope the right team drafts him because I'm confident he can be a 3 down workhorse.  I see him getting 15+ rushes per game with another 5+ receptions on top, so I see him as a 20+ touch player in the NFL.  I know he can run between the tackles and handle a RB1 load.  Will the team that drafts him believe that?  I hope so, or he could be a wasted pick.  So much will be decided by the team that drafts him.

Bold prediction and would be awesome to see.

We'll see where he ends up and if that happens.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's hear from some CM supporters on what they think his career will be like.

Will he be a featured back? Meaning, will he be the RB1 on his team? Will he be a "gadget" player. Will he play the a lot more slot than RB?

Based on his college career and his combine, I would think, if his skin color was different, that most people would consider him a featured back and the best RB on his team. He can also catch very well, so there would have to be a good reason why he wouldn't be a "three down" back.

So what are your predictions, and if you think he's not going to be the featured back for his team, why not?

I disagree with your point that most would consider him a feature back. The reason there is some concern is his weight at 202 lbs.  That's definitely a concern that might limit his workload. NOT his pigmentation.

I hope he finds a way to bulk up to 210+ because then I don't see a flaw in him as a prospect and we can hopefully see what he can do. Otherwise, we need to hope the team that invests in him plans to feature him so we can see how he performs. 

And I'm in for $1 wager that he has a top 10 fantasy season at least once in his career. Since he's white and those lighter guys aren't as good, the odds are stacked against him doing so. 

 

[petekrum]

My McCaffrey love juice is all over this thread and in the quoted post below, I'm essentially 1/2 in my predictions.  My quick/glance math has his total yardage this past year at 2,300ish and that's missing 2 games I believe, so yeah, it's safe to assume he would have put up 2,500 yards had he not missed games.  I also think he is the first RB drafted in the real NFL, although not sure he goes top 5 (my 2nd prediction).  It really depends what team falls in love with him and how bad they want him.  

To answer Kutta - I'm predicting RB1 production and usage.  I sure hope the right team drafts him because I'm confident he can be a 3 down workhorse.  I see him getting 15+ rushes per game with another 5+ receptions on top, so I see him as a 20+ touch player in the NFL.  I know he can run between the tackles and handle a RB1 load.  Will the team that drafts him believe that?  I hope so, or he could be a wasted pick.  So much will be decided by the team that drafts him.

You still think he will be the first RB drafted in the NFL draft?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

You still think he will be the first RB drafted in the NFL draft?

I do. To me, he's the best RB prospect in this class. 

 

[CabinFever]

I doubt he's the first RB drafted, but I do think he's going to have a good career. And if his value is "system dependent" so be it, a lot of backs have been successful with that same label (Forte, Bush, Murray just to name a few) 

 

[petekrum]

I do. To me, he's the best RB prospect in this class. 

I only ask because most every mock I've seen has Fournette and Cook going well before him. It could help him to go later and land with a better team.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I honestly don't know what people see in Fournette. Is he still the consensus top RB?  He's fast for a big fella but he needs a runway to get moving. I don't see him creating on his own and when he needs to react in tight spaces he doesn't get much. He'll probably be good enough for fantasy but I don't see anything truly special in him. At this point I think I'd rank Cook, Mixon and Kamara over him. 

 

[petekrum]

I honestly don't know what people see in Fournette. Is he still the consensus top RB?  He's fast for a big fella but he needs a runway to get moving. I don't see him creating on his own and when he needs to react in tight spaces he doesn't get much. He'll probably be good enough for fantasy but I don't see anything truly special in him. At this point I think I'd rank Cook, Mixon and Kamara over him. 

Everything I've seen has him as the RB1. My biggest worry is he seems to run to contact. I think he's gonna be a very good RB, but his shelf life may not be great.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Everything I've seen has him as the RB1. My biggest worry is he seems to run to contact. I think he's gonna be a very good RB, but his shelf life may not be great.

What part of his game is special to you? Why do you have him ranked as the top RB? If there's a light to see, I want to see it. Like I said, he'll probably be effective based on size alone but will he be special? Can he be a game changer?

 

[BradtheAg]

What part of his game is special to you? Why do you have him ranked as the top RB? If there's a light to see, I want to see it. Like I said, he'll probably be effective based on size alone but will he be special? Can he be a game changer?

Fournette's 2015 was outrageous.  He looked ready to carry the load for an NFL team 18+ months ago IMO

 

[JuniorNB]

I see him as a Shane Vareen type nfl back. Maybe Danny Woodhead. 

 

[CabinFever]

What part of his game is special to you? Why do you have him ranked as the top RB? If there's a light to see, I want to see it. Like I said, he'll probably be effective based on size alone but will he be special? Can he be a game changer?

His size, speed, and ability to plow over people. And while I normally wouldn't think of him as "Fast" I have watched some highlights where he looked anything but slow. 

 

[CabinFever]

I see him as a Shane Vareen type nfl back. Maybe Danny Woodhead. 

Think you are selling him short. He's better than Vereen already  

 

[Zyphros]

I see him as a Shane Vareen type nfl back. Maybe Danny Woodhead. 

I see McCaffrey as a better version of Woodhead, more size/speed/athleticism/production.  I think he's the closest comp for projected production as a floor for what McCaffrey can do. Woodhead's most productive season in terms of touches was 106 carries 76 catches so 182 total touches over 16 games which is 11.4 touches a game.  That is his floor.  He's as safe of a guy you can take, with potential to be so much more in the right system.

 

[Bronco Billy]

If he can put on 10 lbs in his first year or so, I don't see any reason why his floor can't be Warrick Dunn and his ceiling Tiki Barber, but with some returns thrown in unless he becomes a bonafide RB1 like Barber did as his career progressed.

ETA - and if he can put on 4 lbs he'd be the same height & weight as Terrell Davis. Just something to consider.

.

 

[Faust]

 

An NFL GM who spoke with NFL Media reporter Kimberly Jones said that "[t]he question becomes, is [Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey] big enough and physical enough to be an every-down back?"
McCaffrey was one of the top performers at the NFL Scouting Combine this weekend, but even those fine testing results (4.48-second 40, vertical leap of 37.5 inches, 60-yard shuttle of 11.03 seconds) have not erased all questions. The general manager who spoke with Jones said that he views McCaffrey as a potentially "elite player on third or fourth down." There are going to be teams that see the former Stanford star as a more complimentary piece (rather than a bellcow back), but there is a ton of scuttlebutt that McCaffrey could be nearing first-round lock status.

 
 
Source: NFL.com 
Mar 7 - 5:25 PM

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I doubt he's the first RB drafted, but I do think he's going to have a good career. And if his value is "system dependent" so be it, a lot of backs have been successful with that same label (Forte, Bush, Murray just to name a few) 

Thing about McCaffrey is that he has experience -- and success -- in both zone and gap/power schemes. His size for an RB is decent enough, but he doesn't have blazing speed -- he does have great vision and elusiveness. In the NFL, I don't think he will really fit a power scheme -- players are simply too big and fast -- but he can definitely find success in a zone block scheme.

When I hear "system dependent," I think of a guy like Reggie Bush or zero back types like Spiller and Woodhead. However, the guys you mention like Forte are less dependent on a true system than being versatile in the run and pass games, and I see McCaffrey seeing success if used like this.