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RB Darrel Williams - Arizona (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable said:
Doug B said:
Adrian Peterson had a whole career over Alvin Kamara going in the early weeks of 2017.

The point is not that Darrel Williams will end up like Kamara. The point is that most of the time, to take advantage of a luck-out league winner off of waivers, you have to pull the trigger before it's a sure thing.
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I dont see your point as a rebuttal to my statement at all.
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It's kind of indirect, I admit. I read your statements on the previous page as pretty much writing off Darrel Williams as a season-long FF contributor.

LawFitz wrote above: "Actually, it's only been two weeks for the Darrel Williams part of this experiment."

You responded to him: "It has been 4 weeks and a whole career for McCoy that I am considering here."

Riffing off of your phrasing, I jumped in with: "Adrian Peterson had a whole career over Alvin Kamara going in the early weeks of 2017."

...

When you wrote "... a whole career for McCoy", I took that to mean that you feel his history and past success carry enough weight to surpass any "eye tests" that other Chiefs' RBs (especially Darrel Williams) may ace. To me, if Darrel Williams keeps 50% usage alongside a healthy Damien W and McCoy, and then builds momentum (or benefits from an injury) enough to be a 65-70% back by Halloween ... that wouldn't be the least bit of an out-of-left-field surprise. The signs are all there right now.

Not to say there's a 100% chance of that happening. Maybe not even 75%. But the time to buy that cheap Darrel Williams lotto ticket is now (if not last week) -- should he blow up even more, it will be very difficult to obtain him.

 
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[scooter] said:
Based on what? The last two times that Damien played, Darrel was inactive (Week 1) or unused (5 snaps week 2).
 

Barber was the #26 RB last year, and the #53 overall RB/WR/TE. In most 12-team flex leagues (2RB/2WR/1Flex), that made him a top-tier flex player.
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Based on not knowing Damien's status for this weekend.  Which is why I said "...may be..."

Barber was RB#32 in my league (#44 in PPG).  I am not sure where you get #53 among WR/TE/RBs (your league can't flex a Kicker or Defense?), he scored 121 points in my league, 83 RB/WR/TEs scored more points than him (130 scored more PPG). And Barber needed 80% of the RB carries in TB to do it. 

Barber had 234 carries last year and, if he's lucky, he will get 212 this year. Mind you, that number is predicated on week two, when Barber was heavily featured on their short week, happening a couple more times. I think we all see the wind shifting in TB but we are not certain to what degree yet.  In TBs three other game Barber has 30 carries to Jones's 44.

This year he is RB#30 (#34 in PPG) & 97 RB/WR/TEs have scored more than he has (111 in PPG). Obviously all leagues vary somewhat but most of them don't vary that much.

Barber is not going to reliably give you last years PPG scoring.  And he may not give you this year's PPG scoring going forward. At best he is an end of the bench stash who needs high volume to do anything.  High volume means he is in the same situation as Darrell Williams, waiting for an injury.  Darrell doesn't need two injuries, he has scored as much as Peyton with 43% of the volume (58 to 25 touches).  Injuries are speculative at best but who is more likely to get hurt McCoy, Damien or Ronald Jones?

I understand keeping Barber rostered, Arians is stubborn so he should hold onto some kind of role all year, maybe even goal line specialist, but he's getting decisively outplayed by Ronald Jones.  Barber is an "In case of emergency, break glass" type of player not a weekly flex.

 
[scooter] said:
I will be dropping him for a WR this week. It's either him or Peyton Barber.

I recognize Darrel's home run potential, but he needs TWO injuries for that to happen, and he needs ONE injury to be a startable flex player.

At least Barber is nominally a starter. I'd rather bet on one injury in Tampa Bay than bet on 2 injuries in KC.
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Anyone want to tell him?

 
Definitely holding, at least for now. He has shown that with 1 injury he can have a 2 TD game, games with nice yardage. McCoy doesn't appear to be 100% and Damien Williams the same.

 
gonna be tough this week with KC playing Sunday night.  All my other best options play earlier in the day.  I've got a really tough matchup this week, so unless Damien Williams is declared out prior to 1 PM kickoffs (which is unlikely) I'll probably have to bench him for one of several mediocre replacements (although i do have a good feeling about Will Fuller this week)

 
TLEF316 said:
gonna be tough this week with KC playing Sunday night.  All my other best options play earlier in the day.  I've got a really tough matchup this week, so unless Damien Williams is declared out prior to 1 PM kickoffs (which is unlikely) I'll probably have to bench him for one of several mediocre replacements (although i do have a good feeling about Will Fuller this week)
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I'm sitting for Jordan Howard. While I also have Damian Williams, we could see a 3-headed monster on Sunday night. Not ideal.

 
ShamrockPride said:
Relief for me as a DamWill and Shady owner. What I'm surprised at is just how little even Shady was used.
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Couldn’t establish the ground game. I didn’t see McCoy at all after his bad fumble. Idk if he was injured or not. Darrel was preferentially the 3rd down back, but it didn’t translate to touches. Damien couldn’t get anything going either. Idk. Tough to say what next week will yield. The Chiefs certainly need to establish a competent ground game. 

 
Damien hasn't reached 3 ypc in his 3 games, while Shady has exceeded 5 ypc in 3 of his 4 games when he got carries and  Darrel did in 1 of his 2 games. Obviously situations matter. I'm curious how PFF rates them. 

 
Hard to hold after this game.

All the talk of how Reid loves him and behind the scenes can't stand Damien because he can't stay healthy. Then, Damien gets the start, most of the touches, McCoy does nothing, and Darrel does more than nothing.

 
Still think it's Darrell come fantasy playoffs time. Something about this guy still smells like "will rise to the top (eventually)". I admit I can't base much of that on facts or logic, except for his sample size to date :shrug:  Seems clear now that Darrell WILL need an injury to get playing time -- don't know why, but that seems to be the situation.

Almost wonder if something disciplinary was going on last night. Always figured the "can't lose your job to injury" thing really only applied to star players.

 
Doug B said:
Still think it's Darrell come fantasy playoffs time. Something about this guy still smells like "will rise to the top (eventually)". I admit I can't base much of that on facts or logic, except for his sample size to date :shrug:  Seems clear now that Darrell WILL need an injury to get playing time -- don't know why, but that seems to be the situation.

Almost wonder if something disciplinary was going on last night. Always figured the "can't lose your job to injury" thing really only applied to star players.
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In a 16-team league, I'm still holding until week 9 when I might keep 2 kickers. I agree thst unless there is an injury, or the film shows Damien leaving yards on the field or otherwise underperforming, I don't think Darrel gets much chance. 

 
These KC RB's are just taking up roster spots at the moment.  I own McCoy and Darrel, and can't start either.  I have a plan though - I am gonna ask the owner with #1 waiver if he will use it if I drop McCoy.  At least that way I can move up a spot, and still hold Darrel as my lotto ticket.

 
kyoun1e said:
Hard to hold after this game.

All the talk of how Reid loves him and behind the scenes can't stand Damien because he can't stay healthy. Then, Damien gets the start, most of the touches, McCoy does nothing, and Darrel does more than nothing.
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Maybe it's just me, but I am seeing Damiens' performance as a reason to continue to hold Darrel.

 
tricky92 said:
Maybe it's just me, but I am seeing Damiens' performance as a reason to continue to hold Darrel.
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I see what you mean. I have seen coaches be extremely stubborn about players, though.

The Chiefs barely ran the ball last night ... and they couldn't score for some reason. Maybe last night was a weird one-off and no conclusions at all can really be drawn?

 
tricky92 said:
Maybe it's just me, but I am seeing Damiens' performance as a reason to continue to hold Darrel.
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I'd like to believe this take, as it's not like any RB had a banner day. 

It's technically possible Reid gets impatient and plays Darrel more -- but I can't see how that's a likely scenario.

Reality seems to be that this guy is just back to being a lotto ticket like before -- hold if you have the bench room and flexibility; otherwise he might be droppable.

 
SoBeDad said:
In a 16-team league, I'm still holding until week 9 when I might keep 2 kickers. I agree thst unless there is an injury, or the film shows Damien leaving yards on the field or otherwise underperforming, I don't think Darrel gets much chance. 
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Yeah, the wire's pretty bare in my league.  I'm leaning toward holding until Guice comes off IR, unless someone really flashes before then.

 
There are several concepts of Behavioral Economics which come into play here:

"Sunk Cost Fallacy"

"Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment."

"Status Quo Bias"

"Status quo bias is evident when people prefer things to stay the same by doing nothing (see also inertia) or by sticking with a decision made previously."

"Endowment Effect"

"This bias occurs when we overvalue something that we own, regardless of its objective market value."

 
He's a hold guys.

Cannot start him right now, but KC isn't going to look like last night all season, and if D Will (A) or McCoy sits, he is a flex with lots of upside.

 
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Joe Summer said:
There are several concepts of Behavioral Economics which come into play here:

"Sunk Cost Fallacy"

"Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment."

"Status Quo Bias"

"Status quo bias is evident when people prefer things to stay the same by doing nothing (see also inertia) or by sticking with a decision made previously."

"Endowment Effect"

"This bias occurs when we overvalue something that we own, regardless of its objective market value."
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Well Darrel Williams owners are probably more bullish about his potential than most, that's certainly true.  I guess you could call that endowment effect, though it remains to be seen whether he's over-, under-, or rightly-valued.

The other two, nah.  The investment is essentially zero for most of us (no sunk cost), and he's only been on our rosters for a week or two (minimal status quo).

 
Joe Summer said:
There are several concepts of Behavioral Economics which come into play here:

"Sunk Cost Fallacy"

"Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment."

"Status Quo Bias"

"Status quo bias is evident when people prefer things to stay the same by doing nothing (see also inertia) or by sticking with a decision made previously."

"Endowment Effect"

"This bias occurs when we overvalue something that we own, regardless of its objective market value."
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This happens a lot in FFL. I still remember the Christine Michael threads

Personally I picked him up as an FA and got two good weeks out of him so I can't complain. I'm holding onto him because I have the roster space and can afford to wait it out for a bit. 

 
Joe Summer said:
There are several concepts of Behavioral Economics which come into play here:

"Sunk Cost Fallacy"

"Individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort). This fallacy, which is related to loss aversion and status quo bias, can also be viewed as bias resulting from an ongoing commitment."

"Status Quo Bias"

"Status quo bias is evident when people prefer things to stay the same by doing nothing (see also inertia) or by sticking with a decision made previously."

"Endowment Effect"

"This bias occurs when we overvalue something that we own, regardless of its objective market value."
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While these are all applicable here to at least some degree, you need to balance out your economic analogy, but also including insurance. If EITHER McCoy or Demian get hurt or just plain suck, Darrel is the barrel. Except this is insurance you can buy (or hold) against someone else's house burning down. At this point the insurance premium is the opportunity cost of the weekly roster spot. 

 
LawFitz said:
While these are all applicable here to at least some degree, you need to balance out your economic analogy, but also including insurance. If EITHER McCoy or Demian get hurt or just plain suck, Darrel is the barrel. Except this is insurance you can buy (or hold) against someone else's house burning down. At this point the insurance premium is the opportunity cost of the weekly roster spot. 
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Exactly, and everyone's situation on here is going to be different. In two weeks, I got nearly 30 points out of Darrel. That's highly valuable.

 
Week 5 snaps and utilization for KC RB

Damien Williams 35 snaps (56%) 9 rushing attempts 23 yards 4 targets 3 receptions 15 yards
LeSean McCoy 14 snaps (22%) 2 targets 2 receptions 23 yards 1 fumble lost
Darrell Williams 14 snaps (22%)

KC passed the ball 39 times and ran the ball 11 times not including the 3 Mahomes scrambles.

I watched this game and it seemed that KC was struggling to get anything going on offense. Because of the score this is one of those games where Andy forgets to run the ball.

 
The fact Damien continues to post terrible stats and KC is struggling...this was their first loss and they were at least winning the close games the previous weeks while Damien Williams was hurt. Darrel Williams owners should be happy, the more Damien plays the less he looks like a lead RB in the NFL. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Darrel Williams owners should be happy, the more Damien plays the less he looks like a lead RB in the NFL. 
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Agreed.  And, the more Damien plays the less Andy looks like the coach savant he sometimes gets away with.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
The fact Damien continues to post terrible stats and KC is struggling...this was their first loss and they were at least winning the close games the previous weeks while Damien Williams was hurt. Darrel Williams owners should be happy, the more Damien plays the less he looks like a lead RB in the NFL. 
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Didn't Darrel Williams carry the ball 8 times for 13 yards the last time he got the ball?  Regardless of the two TDs in that game.

 
JohnnyU said:
Didn't Darrel Williams carry the ball 8 times for 13 yards the last time he got the ball?  Regardless of the two TDs in that game.
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One of them has a 1.8 ypc avg and the other is 4.4 ypc, one has a long run of 6 yds sprinkled over 3 games started this season, the other has a long of 41. 

31 carries 57 yards for Damien, it's Week 6...

 
Ministry of Pain said:
One of them has a 1.8 ypc avg and the other is 4.4 ypc, one has a long run of 6 yds sprinkled over 3 games started this season, the other has a long of 41. 

31 carries 57 yards for Damien, it's Week 6...
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I'd like to see the PFF or other metrics on the KC rbs. The local Miami Herald writer, Barry Jackson, uses them regularly when discussing Dolphin players.

 
As much as I (likely irrationally) believe that Darrel is still in a good position -- Shady and Damien not really being hugely productive -- I am also not confident we'll see anything meaningfully change unless there is an injury to the guys ahead of him.

Got bye weeks and injuries to cover, and may need to sadly let this lotto ticket go for now....

:(

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
As much as I (likely irrationally) believe that Darrel is still in a good position -- Shady and Damien not really being hugely productive -- I am also not confident we'll see anything meaningfully change unless there is an injury to the guys ahead of him.

Got bye weeks and injuries to cover, and may need to sadly let this lotto ticket go for now....

:(
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I’m going to hang on to him for now

 
                  Team     DVOA    Runs   Yards   Effective Yds   TD   FUM  

L.McCoy   KC       10.6%    40      214       220           2             0  

Dam.Williams    KC  -45.4%   31   57         36           1              0

Dar.Williams     KC      8.9%       17    75       71           2           1

from Football Outsiders. Sorry for the poor formatting. Not too much to get excited about (a good DVOA is 30%+), but Damien Williams Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is dead last among measured players.

 
^^^ It's certainly possible Damien came back too soon after feeling the heat of his starting spot slipping away.

Right now, McCoy is a liability in pass protection, while Damien has to this point, been a liability running. 

Darrel can do both. Seemingly better at pass pro than running, but effective enough at the latter. And he's also a plus receiver. And he's 220+ lbs. There's something here, if he gets the chance to be the lead guy at some point.

 
Truebluey said:
                  Team     DVOA    Runs   Yards   Effective Yds   TD   FUM  

L.McCoy   KC       10.6%    40      214       220           2             0  

Dam.Williams    KC  -45.4%   31   57         36           1              0

Dar.Williams     KC      8.9%       17    75       71           2           1

from Football Outsiders. Sorry for the poor formatting. Not too much to get excited about (a good DVOA is 30%+), but Damien Williams Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is dead last among measured players.
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Part of this may be that per Football Outsiders, the Chiefs' offensive line has been not very good.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

 
Looks like I need to drop my boy to cover for Engram's gimpy knee this week.

I just hope this isn't the week he surprisingly comes back on scene to explode as I'd love to pick him back up and hold after next week's waivers clear.

I actually forget on Yahoo, if I drop a player on Saturday/Sunday (to prevent someone scooping him up before then), I will have a shot to get him back if he clears Week 6 waivers and no one claims him on the 15th.

It may be an irrational hope, as all evidence points against it so far, but just have a gut feeling Darrel's going to resurface and be a factor in this offense down the stretch.

 
I dropped Darrel. I need the players with having had a lousy start in my league, though. I'd rather invest capital elsewhere than in this guy. He's not very good by the eye test.

Don't forget -- people are selling out to stop the game at the line of scrimmage against the Colts. Their best two WRs are hurt/out. That means something, frankly, and I'm surprised people in the RB threads aren't discussing it.

Pecking order will remain similar to what it is before the injury because the talent is similar before the injury.

If it keeps not producing that's another thing. But you guys spend all day on a computer with the days crawling by until Sunday. For these guys making decisions, it flies by with little to no sleep. They're concerned with maximizing the here and now, not some paper roster with JAG like Darrel.  

 
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rockaction said:
I dropped Darrel. I need the players with having had a lousy start in my league, though. I'd rather invest capital elsewhere than in this guy. He's not very good by the eye test.

Don't forget -- people are selling out to stop the game at the line of scrimmage against the Colts. Their best two WRs are hurt/out. That means something, frankly, and I'm surprised people in the RB threads aren't discussing it.

Pecking order will remain similar to what it is before the injury because the talent is similar before the injury.

If it keeps not producing that's another thing. But you guys spend all day on a computer with the days crawling by until Sunday. For these guys making decisions, it flies by with little to no sleep. They're concerned with maximizing the here and now, not some paper roster with JAG like Darrel.  
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You sound like a bot

 
tricky92 said:
You sound like a bot
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Not sure what that means in the least. I'm probably one of the most prone to wild swings of emotion on these boards.

If I sound like a bot. maybe. i. need. more. periods. to. sound. human? (inflection. added.)

 
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