RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (1 Viewer)

[ericttspikes]

Doing a FFPC draft right now. Got Gurley at 11. Have a feeling he might of even lasted a few more picks. So if Gurley is now a late 1st/early 2nd in redrafts, Henderson might even be undervalued in rookie/dynasty drafts. The Gurley panic causing him to slide can't just be about concern for this year alone. 

 

[LawFitz]

Devonta Henderson runs with more explosion (and I project) slightly more power, but if you want an NFL comparison when it comes to running style, this is your dawg.

https://youtu.be/49M8RdD7Mnk

Same lateral movement and stance, but less burst and more size with Collins. I think Henderson is also a better receiver, based on his YouTubes. And again, Denzell has McVay, who targeted and traded up for him. That cannot be overstated. Huge difference between the current Rams and those defensive-minded Seahawks and Ravens teams!

 

[TripItUp]

Doing a FFPC draft right now. Got Gurley at 11. Have a feeling he might of even lasted a few more picks. So if Gurley is now a late 1st/early 2nd in redrafts, Henderson might even be undervalued in rookie/dynasty drafts. The Gurley panic causing him to slide can't just be about concern for this year alone. 

Gurley is sliding much further in “expert” mockk drafts. 

I’ve also seen him settle into late forst early second in FFPC...too pricey for me.

 

[SayWhat?]

Devonta Henderson runs with more explosion (and I project) slightly more power, but if you want an NFL comparison when it comes to running style, this is your dawg.

https://youtu.be/49M8RdD7Mnk

Same lateral movement and stance, but less burst and more size with Collins. I think Henderson is also a better receiver, based on his YouTubes. And again, Denzell has McVay, who targeted and traded up for him. That cannot be overstated. Huge difference between the current Rams and those defensive-minded Seahawks and Ravens teams!

My comparison, and this is a different one because they don't play the same position, is that Henderson's style of play reminds me up Harry Fitzgerald.  Stay with me here.  People want to nitpick Henderson.  They say, "but he lacks lateral agility," "can't pick his way through traffic," and "has no special traits."  But where the untrained eye sees a lack of lateral agility for Henderson, I see nuanced moves with elite burst that simply leaves defenders scratching their heads and casual onlookers questioning his level of competition.  Same holds true for Leon, who is HOF bound while being elite at nothing but Jedi master of everything.  This game just looks so easy for these two because of their natural, Dog given abilities and innate sense for the game.   Grab Henderson while you can, because like Laurence, he's destined for the HOF.

(There you go, your fifteenth attempt at Henderson name humor has been acknowledged.  Can we call it good now?)

 

[LawFitz]

Henderson's style of play reminds me up Harry Fitzgerald ... who is HOF bound while being elite at nothing but Jedi master of everything.

Harry has always had elite hands, route running, size and body control; not to mention elite character, including heart, determination and work ethic.

 

[Biabreakable]

Harry has always had elite hands, route running, size and body control; not to mention elite character, including heart, determination and work ethic.

I think you are missing the joke here.

It has to do with how you are spelling Hendersons first name.

 

[LawFitz]

I think you are missing the joke here.

It has to do with how you are spelling Hendersons first name.

Eh, like with my posts, I sensed actual commentary in between the silly.

 

[Biabreakable]

Eh, like with my posts, I sensed actual commentary in between the silly.

Naw.

Incidentally I agree with you about Larry. One of the best to ever do it.

 

[LawFitz]

Naw.

Incidentally I agree with you about Larry. One of the best to ever do it.

You could be right. Sarcasm sometimes more difficult to detect than others, but I took his Larry Fitz comp at face value - probably because my assessments of Henderson have all been forthright, other than the whole name switching thing.

Side note, Harry Fitzgerald is a great nickname for N'Keal Harry, who I think is an extremely similar WR. Try not to get mad at me if I call N'Keal that in the Harry thread.

 

[dkp993]

Gurley is sliding much further in “expert” mockk drafts. 

I’ve also seen him settle into late forst early second in FFPC...too pricey for me.

Buy buy buy, and this is coming from a guy who was all over him being injured at the end of last year.  While the back end of Gurley’s career is likely cut short he’ll be fine for a few more years.  It’s like everyone is forgetting this guy was the best RB (FF wise) the last 2+ yrs.  

Guarantee he finishes as a top 5 RB in PPR’s.  

 

[TripItUp]

Guarantee he finishes as a top 5 RB in PPR’s.  

 

[dkp993]

.  Ain’t scared 

 

[Interseptopus]

Guarantee he finishes as a top 5 RB in PPR’s.  

Wow at first I thought this was for Henderson and I thought oh boy... someone's crazier than I am. Then I saw it was for Gurley and I confirmed that there was someone crazier than I was. 

Gurley has finished top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, RB1 in 2 of those seasons (17 and 18)

Over the last 10 years, the only RBs to finish in the top 5 ppr 4 or more times are:

AP: 5 finishes, 1 RB1

Arian Foster: 4 finishes

Marshawn Lynch: 4 finishes

Over the last 10 years not a single back finished 1st more than 1 time, except Gurley. 

Over the last 10 years, after finishing as RB1, the number of RBs who finished top 5 the following year: 2 not counting Gurley in 17/18. 

While I agree that Gurleys name belongs next to these guys, the odds are not in his favor to finish top 5 if he had a good knee. 

ETA: I agree, he is the only one over the last 10 years to break 2 trends (back to back RB1 and RB1 to Top5 consecutive years), but can we expect him to put up another outlier of a year? If anyone can, it's a healthy Gurley... problem is he isnt healthy

 

[dkp993]

Wow at first I thought this was for Henderson and I thought oh boy... someone's crazier than I am. Then I saw it was for Gurley and I confirmed that there was someone crazier than I was. 

Gurley has finished top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years, RB1 in 2 of those seasons (17 and 18)

Over the last 10 years, the only RBs to finish in the top 5 ppr 4 or more times are:

AP: 5 finishes, 1 RB1

Arian Foster: 4 finishes

Marshawn Lynch: 4 finishes

Over the last 10 years not a single back finished 1st more than 1 time, except Gurley. 

Over the last 10 years, after finishing as RB1, the number of RBs who finished top 5 the following year: 2 not counting Gurley in 17/18. 

While I agree that Gurleys name belongs next to these guys, the odds are not in his favor to finish top 5 if he had a good knee. 

ETA: I agree, he is the only one over the last 10 years to break 2 trends (back to back RB1 and RB1 to Top5 consecutive years), but can we expect him to put up another outlier of a year? If anyone can, it's a healthy Gurley... problem is he isnt healthy

All valid points and don’t want to turn this into a Gurley thread so I’m happy to move the discussion there.  But my quick thoughts on your post....  If it were not for the knee concern it would all but be certain Gurley would be the consensus overall #1 pick.  Peak yrs, proven track record, perfect system and surrounding talent to not stack boxes.   The knee is the issue....  I don’t believe it will play a massive role this yr outside of limiting some touches.  

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is a study I did a few years back which when I started the study I was wondering how important the rookie season of a RB career is historically. The reason I was wondering about this is because of Gurley still recovering from injury in his rookie season.

What I discovered was that the average number of top 12 seasons for a RB over the 25 year sample was two.

The numbers that would be relevant to Todd Gurley

For the RB whos rookie season was at 21 years old, this average improves to 2.38 top twelve seasons.

For the RB who were drafted in the top 13 of the draft, this average improves to 2.9 top 12 seasons.

Todd Gurley has been a top 12 RB 3 out of his 4 seasons so far.

So while the odds are very good that a healthy Todd Gurley will have a top 12 season again, the group that was drafted in the top 13 outperforms the average for all RB for their first seven seasons and being close to the 40 VBD threshold in each of those seasons.

He has already reached the 2.9 top 12 seasons average. The question is if he will be healthy enough to get the workload to continue that for the next 3 seasons or not.

Players in this category tend to have longer useful careers as well in their eigth and ninth seasons as well, but they do not come near enough to the 40 VBD to consider those top 12 seasons. Those are some RB two type years (on average).

Gurley has a better chance than most RB of being very productive for the next 3 seasons. 

If Henderson does get used a lot in the passing game however it will limit some of Gurleys top end performance potential and perhaps he isn't as productive as he has been due to time share.

Gurley has better odds of being a top 12 RB over the next 3 seasons than just about any other RB you might throw up there right now.

On the other hand, Gurley has already reached the 3 top 12 seasons average. He wouldn't be the only RB to not exceed this average (obviously) and a lot of the RB who didn't have more top 12 seasons, was often related to them having serious injuries that they couldn't fully recover from.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wut

 

[Bronco Billy]

While I really respect Gurley’s game and production, does anyone think the Rams want to go though the playoffs again with getting minimal production from him?  I’m guessing - yes, guessing - that McVay is going to do eveything to get him regular season work but preserve him for the playoffs.  That’s going to leave a lot of workload in the regular season for another RB. I’m betting that Henderson gets an average of 15+ touches a game through the regular season.  If so, with his homerun abilty, he’s got a good shot at a solid RB2 with some upside.  They didn’t move up to sit Henderson on the bench if he shows some skills in OTAs/PS

 

[tangfoot]

I’m betting that Henderson gets an average of 15+ touches a game through the regular season.

If you want to make this prediction for the 2nd half of the season, I’m right there with you, guy. 

Barring serious injury, no way he averages that for the entire season. 

 

[Interseptopus]

If you want to make this prediction for the 2nd half of the season, I’m right there with you, guy. 

Barring serious injury, no way he averages that for the entire season. 

bloom disagrees

 

[dkp993]

While I really respect Gurley’s game and production, does anyone think the Rams want to go though the playoffs again with getting minimal production from him?  I’m guessing - yes, guessing - that McVay is going to do eveything to get him regular season work but preserve him for the playoffs.  That’s going to leave a lot of workload in the regular season for another RB. I’m betting that Henderson gets an average of 15+ touches a game through the regular season.  If so, with his homerun abilty, he’s got a good shot at a solid RB2 with some upside.  They didn’t move up to sit Henderson on the bench if he shows some skills in OTAs/PS

So the 2018 Rams in the regular season had 371 RB rushing attempts and another 70 RB catches for a total of 441 total RB touches.  Based on your guess of Henderson getting 15 (not counting the +) touches that’s 240 over 16 games.  So you’re saying the highest paid (arguably best) RB in the game is going to get less then 200 total touches and the smaller share (45% vs 55%) of the overall workload because they moved up for a COP back?   That just doesn’t line up to me.  

Now I completely agree they will reduce his touches to keep him fresher for the playoffs, but barring his knee being a massive problem (which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities at this point) I see absolutely no way he get out touched by Henderson.  A 50/50 split doesn’t even make sense.  I’m guessing 70/30 Gurley.  

 

[TripItUp]

Now I completely agree they will reduce his touches to keep him fresher for the playoffs, but barring his knee being a massive problem (which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities at this point)

And you are "guaranteeing a top 5 PPR season" ??

 

[TripItUp]

While I really respect Gurley’s game and production, does anyone think the Rams want to go though the playoffs again with getting minimal production from him?  I’m guessing - yes, guessing - that McVay is going to do eveything to get him regular season work but preserve him for the playoffs.  That’s going to leave a lot of workload in the regular season for another RB. I’m betting that Henderson gets an average of 15+ touches a game through the regular season.  If so, with his homerun abilty, he’s got a good shot at a solid RB2 with some upside.  They didn’t move up to sit Henderson on the bench if he shows some skills in OTAs/PS

 

[dkp993]

And you are "guaranteeing a top 5 PPR season" ??

Yep

 

[cloppbeast]

I’m betting that Henderson gets an average of 15+ touches a game through the regular season.  If so, with his homerun abilty, he’s got a good shot at a solid RB2 with some upside.  They didn’t move up to sit Henderson on the bench if he shows some skills in OTAs/PS

Oh my. Hot take?

Mcvay gives Gurley about 370 touches over 16 games, 70 being receptions. He definitely will be scaled back, but nobody knows how much. Reduction of 30% seems fair to me, but is highly debatable.

So, in theory, give Henderson all of Malcolm Brown's 60 carries. Add in Gurley's leftovers of 80 carries, 25 receptions. You get about 150 touches. 

So what am I missing? How does Henderson get 240 touches without Gurley getting hurt? 

 

[skinfanjon]

Oh my. Hot take?

Mcvay gives Gurley about 370 touches over 16 games, 70 being receptions. He definitely will be scaled back, but nobody knows how much. Reduction of 30% seems fair to me, but is highly debatable.

So, in theory, give Henderson all of Malcolm Brown's 60 carries. Add in Gurley's leftovers of 80 carries, 25 receptions. You get about 150 touches. 

So what am I missing? How does Henderson get 240 touches without Gurley getting hurt? 

Yeah, he's not getting 15 touches a game without serious injury to Gurley.  Even then it's probably a stretch.  I'd guess 5-8 as a good starting point.

 

[Interseptopus]

Oh my. Hot take?

Mcvay gives Gurley about 370 touches over 16 games, 70 being receptions.

Add in Gurley's leftovers of 80 carries, 25 receptions. 

wow. So Gurleys volume is going to increase?

256 carries and 59 receptions last year. 343 total is his career high

hes never had 70 receptions in his career, nor 300 carries 

And you got leftovers?!

Random SP Poster: "Wow 15 touches a game for Henderson sounds crazy"

Clopp: "Hold my beer"

 

[Bronco Billy]

So the 2018 Rams in the regular season had 371 RB rushing attempts and another 70 RB catches for a total of 441 total RB touches.  Based on your guess of Henderson getting 15 (not counting the +) touches that’s 240 over 16 games.  So you’re saying the highest paid (arguably best) RB in the game is going to get less then 200 total touches and the smaller share (45% vs 55%) of the overall workload because they moved up for a COP back?   That just doesn’t line up to me.  

Now I completely agree they will reduce his touches to keep him fresher for the playoffs, but barring his knee being a massive problem (which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities at this point) I see absolutely no way he get out touched by Henderson.  A 50/50 split doesn’t even make sense.  I’m guessing 70/30 Gurley.  

So you’re theory is the Rams will do nothing differently on offense this year?  I’m basing my thoughts on Henderson getting something in line with 9-10 rushes a game and 5-6 catches a game.  That would leave plenty of rushes on the table but would figure that the RBs will get more involved in the passing game.  15 touches might be a bit much on average.  Maybe scale that back a bit to from 12-15 touches a game.

 

[Interseptopus]

So you’re theory is the Rams will do nothing differently on offense this year?  I’m basing my thoughts on Henderson getting something in line with 9-10 rushes a game and 5-6 catches a game.  That would leave plenty of rushes on the table but would figure that the RBs will get more involved in the passing game.  15 touches might be a bit much on average.  Maybe scale that back a bit to from 12-15 touches a game.

I could see 6 targets a game. 6 receptions, to me, is tough. 

Using @cloppbeast's "reasonable" 30% decrease, let's run the numbers: 

Let's say Brown has 20 attempts this season (23 less than 18, those go to DH)

Henderson gets all of CJs attempts (43) and Kelly's attempts (12)

30% of Gurleys load is 77 carries. 

Total: 155 carries (Gurley with 179, so a 50/44/6% split with Gurley,  Henderson, Brown... a bit different than @dkp993's prediction of a split. interesting, what's "reasonable" to one Henderson critic "doesnt make sense" to the other) 

now targets: 

Kelly, Brown, CJ combined for a measly 16, let's give those to DH

30% decrease for Gurley means 57 targets, so 24 to DH

Total: 40 targets

Personally, I think Henderson gets more than 2.5 targets per game, and I think those targets come from the WRs mostly as you have said (RBs more involved in the passing game), but if we are going to strictly stick to RB volume from 2018, based on Clopps own "reasonable" volume decrease, this is what we come up with. 

I'd gladly take this as his floor

 

[skinfanjon]

I could see 6 targets a game. 6 receptions, to me, is tough. 

Using @cloppbeast's "reasonable" 30% decrease, let's run the numbers: 

Let's say Brown has 20 attempts this season (23 less than 18, those go to DH)

Henderson gets all of CJs attempts (43) and Kelly's attempts (12)

30% of Gurleys load is 77 carries. 

Total: 155 carries (Gurley with 179, so a 50/44/6% split with Gurley,  Henderson, Brown... a bit different than @dkp993's prediction of a split. interesting, what's "reasonable" to one Henderson critic "doesnt make sense" to the other) 

now targets: 

Kelly, Brown, CJ combined for a measly 16, let's give those to DH

30% decrease for Gurley means 57 targets, so 24 to DH

Total: 40 targets

Personally, I think Henderson gets more than 2.5 targets per game, and I think those targets come from the WRs mostly as you have said (RBs more involved in the passing game), but if we are going to strictly stick to RB volume from 2018, based on Clopps own "reasonable" volume decrease, this is what we come up with. 

I'd gladly take this as his floor

It's nice that you're feeling sassy today, but the gigantic hole in these figures is that Brown et al will receive more than 6% of the load and not everyone is ready to assume a 30% decrease.  That would be a big cut.

It's all well and good to have plans to reduce workload for star players but when the bullets start flying, much tougher to resist giving your best player the ball to ya know, win ballgames.  If Gurley's actually healthy he's going to get fed.  If not, well these numbers look more realistic.  

***Also Henderson could easily end up injured himself.  It's a brutal position.

I'm a fan of his talent and long term-outlook but projections of 15 or even 12 touches per game with a healthy Gurley on hand, particularly early in the season are a bit reckless.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

wow. So Gurleys volume is going to increase?

256 carries and 59 receptions last year. 343 total is his career high

hes never had 70 receptions in his career, nor 300 carries 

And you got leftovers?!

Random SP Poster: "Wow 15 touches a game for Henderson sounds crazy"

Clopp: "Hold my beer"

You didn’t read what he wrote carefully enough. 

 

[cloppbeast]

wow. So Gurleys volume is going to increase?

256 carries and 59 receptions last year. 343 total is his career high

hes never had 70 receptions in his career, nor 300 carries 

And you got leftovers?!

Random SP Poster: "Wow 15 touches a game for Henderson sounds crazy"

Clopp: "Hold my beer"

I dont see why 2 people cant disagree about something without animosity. Is all the sarcasm really necessary?

Anyway, McVay has given his top two or three backs about 400 or so touches for 16 games past 2 years. Gurley has hogged them when healthy. We know he will get cut back, but I dont see Henderson taking the majority from him. I think even a 50/50 split is a stretch, but I guess anything is possible.

 

[Interseptopus]

I dont see why 2 people cant disagree about something without animosity. Is all the sarcasm really necessary?

Anyway, McVay has given his top two or three backs about 400 or so touches for 16 games past 2 years. Gurley has hogged them when healthy. We know he will get cut back, but I dont see Henderson taking the majority from him. I think even a 50/50 split is a stretch, but I guess anything is possible.

about 400 touches is way different...

370 + 80 "leftovers" (that would be an NFL record) 

And Brown with 60 to boot

and

70 receptions + 25 "leftovers" (which would be one of the highest of all time for a rb)

370+80+70+25+60 =/= about 400. Thats off by quite a bit actually. Even if you meant 400 attempts, and we took out receptions, that's still not even close

 

[cloppbeast]

about 400 touches is way different...

370 + 80 "leftovers" (that would be an NFL record) 

And Brown with 60 to boot

and

70 receptions + 25 "leftovers" (which would be one of the highest of all time for a rb)

370+80+70+25+60 =/= about 400. Thats off by quite a bit actually. 

Take a deep breadth and go re-read my post.

 

[Interseptopus]

Take a deep breadth and go re-read my post.

How does 370+80+60 add up to "about 400?"

Furthermore, I dont understand how 50-60% of the carries is a stretch for a guy who got 70% last year, is banged up, and the coach has said he is going to limit him more

 

[Bronco Billy]

about 400 touches is way different...

370 + 80 "leftovers" (that would be an NFL record) 

And Brown with 60 to boot

and

70 receptions + 25 "leftovers" (which would be one of the highest of all time for a rb)

370+80+70+25+60 =/= about 400. Thats off by quite a bit actually. Even if you meant 400 attempts, and we took out receptions, that's still not even close

If Goff increases his completion percentage to 67% - and his percentage has increased every year in the league so far - that’s another 30 completions without throwing 1 additional pass over last year.  Now let’s pretend that the Rams’ O actually improves just a little with a weapon like Henderson added to the fold.  It was already a high functioning offense last year, so we can’t really get too crazy about it, but there is room for increases on the passing side.  That could mean with a very slight increase in passing volume and the increase in completion percentage that we get another 40-50 completions over last year.  With a little emphasis on Henderson in the passing game, and his capability as a receiver, it’s not completely outrageous to see 70-80 catches for him.  Maybe 6 a game is too ambitious, but 4.5 to 5 a game seems reasonable.  It just remains to be seen how Henderson fits in.

Kamara had 81 receptions last year as part of a RBBC.  McCaffrey had over 100.  Maybe the Rams have decided to join the party?  The NFL is a copycat league.  Henderson fits the part.

 

[Interseptopus]

If Goff increases his completion percentage to 67% - and his percentage has increased every year in the league so far - that’s another 30 completions without throwing 1 additional pass over last year.  Now let’s pretend that the Rams’ O actually improves just a little with a weapon like Henderson added to the fold.  It was already a high functioning offense last year, so we can’t really get too crazy about it, but there is room for increases on the passing side.  That could mean with a very slight increase in passing volume and the increase in completion percentage that we get another 40-50 completions over last year.  With a little emphasis on Henderson in the passing game, and his capability as a receiver, it’s not completely outrageous to see 70-80 catches for him.  Maybe 6 a game is too ambitious, but 4.5 to 5 a game seems reasonable.  It just remains to be seen how Henderson fits in.

Interesting. Thanks for explaining where your volume was coming from. 

IMO if the offense remains exactly the same volume, the total rushes will drop as the team relies more on Goffs growth as a passer. I think this bodes well for Henderson. 

If the coach is talking about a Kamara type role for Henderson that could mean he gets the vast majority of Gurleys targets in an effort to keep Gurley healthy for the long haul. Gurley still has significant fantasy value; as said earlier hes still the guy punching it in within 5 yards, but one of the major influences on his fantasy value has been his involvement in the passing game, which IMO decreases significantly this year. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Interesting. Thanks for explaining where your volume was coming from. 

Being drunk while posting doesn’t help...

But if there is an issue with Gurley’s knee and McVay does want to decrease his workload a bit, getting him 15 carries a game gets him to 240 on the season and leaves plenty on the table for other RBs - maybe somewhere in the neighborhood of 160.  It’s in line with the Rams’ scheming, giving Goff his rushes, and taking a few WR rushes - not all, but some - and assigning them to Henderson instead.

That drops Gurley’s value, but again in that offense and adding a couple of catches a game, he’s got enough volume to hit 1300 to 1500 total yds plus enough TDs to maintain a FF RB1 status while reducing his workload and leaving enough volume for regular running mate - who I see as Henderson - to have a nice season and still a few scraps for a guy like Brown to get a few touches a game.  

This all would account for about a 20% reduction in Gurley’s FF production but would still allow him to be a top 6 FF RB.  Sure, it’s a ton of speculation but it seems to be within the realm of reasonable and rational possibilities.  The only way we know for sure is to see the offense in action.

 

[cloppbeast]

Watching the NFL's best offense turn into the Mark Sanchez led Jets made it pretty clear to me the importance of Gurley. He's pretty special. Yeah, you want to keep him healthy for the playoffs, but that does you no good if you dont make it.

Henderson has to also be pretty special to really force the issue. Odds are against it though. Out of the 674 rbs drafted in the 3rd round last 10 years, only 1 of them is Alvin Kamara.

Yeah but, who the hell knows, maybe Henderson is the next big thing after all. You guys deserve credit if you're right.

 

[Raptors409]

Watching the NFL's best offense turn into the Mark Sanchez led Jets made it pretty clear to me the importance of Gurley. He's pretty special. Yeah, you want to keep him healthy for the playoffs, but that does you no good if you dont make it.

Henderson has to also be pretty special to really force the issue. Odds are against it though. Out of the 674 rbs drafted in the 3rd round last 10 years, only 1 of them is Alvin Kamara.

Yeah but, who the hell knows, maybe Henderson is the next big thing after all. You guys deserve credit if you're right.

I'm as big of a Henderson supporter as there is, but this Alvin Kamara comparison is awful.

He caught 63 passes combined over 3 YEARS of college football. I see people in here projecting 60+ catches for him THIS SEASON.

You'll be lucky if he gets 60+ targets.

 

[dkp993]

And you are "guaranteeing a top 5 PPR season" ??

Yep

So the #5 RB in a PPR over the last 3 yrs has scored 273 in ‘16, 276 in ‘17 and 323 points in ‘18.  (Side note the #6 in ‘18 scored 273).   That averages to 290pts including the ‘18 spike and 274pts taking the #6 number as the more norm.   

Gurley the last 2 yrs scored 367 and 376 respectively for an average of 371.  Assuming a 30% drop off (which is huge for a guy squarely in his prime yrs and in the same system with same surrounding talent) and that puts him scoring 259pts, less then 1pt a game off the #5 spot.  Reduce the drop off to 25% and he scores 278pts.  

#5 RB production this year is completely realistic imo.  

 

[Interseptopus]

I'm as big of a Henderson supporter as there is, but this Alvin Kamara comparison is awful.

He caught 63 passes combined over 3 YEARS of college football. I see people in here projecting 60+ catches for him THIS SEASON.

You'll be lucky if he gets 60+ targets.

The coaches have said they would like to use him in the same way NO uses Kamara. There have been a lot of comps made in this thread, but I dont believe anyone has compared him to Kamara. Peoppe have said they expect him to be used like Kamara, because the coaches have said so, but that's about it. 

However, your logic is flawed

Gurley had 36 total receptions over 3 years in college. Yet he has managed to average 63 receptions over his 4 year pro career, catching 87 and 81 passes the last two years.

By your logic, suggesting Gurley could catch 80 passes in the NFL is

 

[ffmail4me]

I'm confused. So is it a good thing that I got Henderson in 4 of my PPR dynasty leagues for a late 1st or early 2nd? 

 

[Interseptopus]

I'm confused. So is it a good thing that I got Henderson in 4 of my PPR dynasty leagues for a late 1st or early 2nd? 

Pro Henderson: You got a huge bargain 

Anti Henderson: Purple

 

[cloppbeast]

I'm confused. So is it a good thing that I got Henderson in 4 of my PPR dynasty leagues for a late 1st or early 2nd? 

At least you didnt have to use the 1.01 on him.

 

[Raptors409]

The coaches have said they would like to use him in the same way NO uses Kamara. There have been a lot of comps made in this thread, but I dont believe anyone has compared him to Kamara. Peoppe have said they expect him to be used like Kamara, because the coaches have said so, but that's about it. 

However, your logic is flawed

Gurley had 36 total receptions over 3 years in college. Yet he has managed to average 63 receptions over his 4 year pro career, catching 87 and 81 passes the last two years.

By your logic, suggesting Gurley could catch 80 passes in the NFL is

Draw your own conclusions. Note: Gurley only played 6 games in his final season.

Gurley in College

2012: 14 games, 16 catches (0.875 catches per game)

2013: 10 games, 37 catches (3.7 catches per game)

2014: 6 games, 12 catches (2 catches per game)

Total: 30 games, 65 catches (2.16 catches per game)

Henderson in College

2016: 13 games, 20 catches (1.54 catches per game)

2017: 12 games, 24 catches (2 catches per game)

2018: 13 games, 19 catches (1.46 catches per game)

Total: 38 games, 63 catches (1.66 catches per game)

 

[Bronco Billy]

I'm as big of a Henderson supporter as there is, but this Alvin Kamara comparison is awful.

He caught 63 passes combined over 3 YEARS of college football. I see people in here projecting 60+ catches for him THIS SEASON.

You'll be lucky if he gets 60+ targets.

McCaffrey caught 99 passes combined over 3 YEARS of college football.  I see people projecting 100+ catches for him IN A SEASON.

He’ll be lucky if he gets 100+ targets.



Oh, wait...

 

[Raptors409]

McCaffrey caught 99 passes combined over 3 YEARS of college football.  I see people projecting 100+ catches for him IN A SEASON.

He’ll be lucky if he gets 100+ targets.



Oh, wait...

This is a bad argument on the premise that McCafferey and Henderson are vastly different players into different situations.

McCafferey came into the league as a pass catching back on a team without clear starter. He averaged 2.67 catches a game in college.

That was literally one of his biggest strengths coming out college.

If Henderson was the starter, sure I could see him getting 60 catches. But he's the backup. He'll play on 3rd and long. Maybe rotate in as starter every 3rd series.

The point is, we like Henderson because he HITS HOME RUNS. He averaged over 8 yards a carry.

 

[Bojang0301]

There isn’t a lot of correlation between pass catching RB’s in college and the NFL. Plenty have developed the skill set and others that enter the league with the acumen equally exceed and fail to live up to their collegiate share. 

This thread has gotten a bit outlandish. I knew I was pushing some barriers saying I saw him as the top RB regardless of situation but it’s hard for me to jump to the conclusion he’s Alvin Kamara. I think this is a fantastic offense and one of the best OLines you can ask for. I thought he was a fantastic get after 1.07 and felt people were not reaching with the way this class was to take him earlier. When it extends into best ball and seasonal I think he’s way more expensive already than I’d like. I was a huge Penny fan last year and thought he was worth the price of admission. He had his moments but all the rookie RB’s sans Barkley last year took a good deal of time to show value. I remember Kamara took, what I recall to be, up to three weeks before people caught on to what was happening there and he was often times late or undrafted. Hard for me to see the value in best ball now when the upside is slowly being eaten away by inflated projections in the passing game. Let’s not forget outside of Gurley he’ll have three of the top WR’s in the league and a TE who is entering his third year and a possible breakout candidate in his own right.

 

[Bronco Billy]

This is a bad argument on the premise that McCafferey and Henderson are vastly different players into different situations.

McCafferey came into the league as a pass catching back on a team without clear starter. He averaged 2.67 catches a game in college.

That was literally one of his biggest strengths coming out college.

If Henderson was the starter, sure I could see him getting 60 catches. But he's the backup. He'll play on 3rd and long. Maybe rotate in as starter every 3rd series.

The point is, we like Henderson because he HITS HOME RUNS. He averaged over 8 yards a carry.

What is a bad argument is the one you are making.  Trying to tie college receptions for RBs to projected pro RB receiving is a poor proposition.  But I used the exact same logic that you did with the McCaffrey example, so it’s nice to see that you realized it was a mistake.

I agree that part of the appeal on Henderson is his big play possibilities.  But what additionally intrigues me is his talent and what I see as a guy who is more than a CoP RB, and also what happened with Gurley at the end of last year.  McVay swore Gurley was healthy, yet was sitting on the bench a lot when LA needed him to carry the load in the playoffs.  As much as I think Anderson is a solid NFL RB, he is well below a healthy Gurley’s level.  There’s no way you can convince me that a healthy Gurley is playing second string to Anderson.  I believe there’s a structural issue with Gurley, and of course I can’t prove it.  But I do believe Gurley’s workload is going to be monitored and that he’ll be on a pitch count all year.  And IMO, that increases Henderson’s appeal by a large amount.

 

[Interseptopus]

Draw your own conclusions. Note: Gurley only played 6 games in his final season.

Gurley in College

2012: 14 games, 16 catches (0.875 catches per game)

2013: 10 games, 37 catches (3.7 catches per game)

2014: 6 games, 12 catches (2 catches per game)

Total: 30 games, 65 catches (2.16 catches per game)

Henderson in College

2016: 13 games, 20 catches (1.54 catches per game)

2017: 12 games, 24 catches (2 catches per game)

2018: 13 games, 19 catches (1.46 catches per game)

Total: 38 games, 63 catches (1.66 catches per game)

This is a bad argument on the premise that McCafferey and Henderson are vastly different players into different situations.

McCafferey came into the league as a pass catching back on a team without clear starter. He averaged 2.67 catches a game in college.

That was literally one of his biggest strengths coming out college.

If Henderson was the starter, sure I could see him getting 60 catches. But he's the backup. He'll play on 3rd and long. Maybe rotate in as starter every 3rd series.

The point is, we like Henderson because he HITS HOME RUNS. He averaged over 8 yards a carry.

you're missing the point. We are showing how your argument is a terribly flawed one.

You referenced Hendersons college receptions as definitive proof he cant be a high volume receiver in the NFL

BB and I have shown you two examples if where that is not true for NFL RBs we already know have produced

Therefore, your argument against Henderson is a terrible one.