RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (1 Viewer)

[Kevrunner]

Any reason random guy has said this?

He’s not a random guy, he’s been posting for years and now is a writer for DLF.  I wasn’t sure if it was OK or not to post the link to the thread from DLF.

 

[Football Jones]

Do you still feel this way in light of recent media reports that echo what I and others have been saying?

The media reports have always been out there. Gurley’s knee is a question mark & they’ve been looking for a COP since McVay got there. If other teams hadn’t snagged Hines & Ito Smith in the 2018 draft, one of them would now be the Rams’ COP (they were high on both).

Bottom line is Henderson was a 3rd round pick in what is probably the worst RB class in recent years. The Rams have been clear what kind of role they expect Henderson to have (COP). That fits his skill set, as well.

Depending on various factors this season (mostly tied to Gurley’s health), Henderson could see a fair number of touches & have some success in the Rams’ offense, but he simply doesn’t possess the skills needed to be a long-term feature back.

I don’t dislike Henderson as much as I’m surprised by the kind of ceiling expressed in this thread.

 

[Tool]

Noone's changing their mind. Let's just lock this thread for the next few months and call it a day.

 

[FBG Moderator]

I don't report people, but you need to tone it down.  

To answer your question, I'm discussing fantasy football topics.

No you're not. You're trying to call out people who you think were wrong. Please don't do that. Keep it 100% on football and not trying to gloat when you're right or take digs at others who were wrong asking them to revisit something they said a couple of weeks ago. 

Keep it 100% on the player and not posters. We're already down skinjohnfan who wasn't able to do this. 

Please keep it to football and not other posters.

 

[ghostguy123]

No you're not. You're trying to call out people who you think were wrong. Please don't do that. Keep it 100% on football and not trying to gloat when you're right or take digs at others who were wrong asking them to revisit something they said a couple of weeks ago. 

Keep it 100% on the player and not posters. We're already down skinjohnfan who wasn't able to do this. 

Please keep it to football and not other posters.

I actually wouldn't mind the gloating  as much if something actually happened for him to be able to gloat about.  

 

[MAC_32]

I’m not sure what’s changed here.  

Other than the public catching up to reality, nothing's changed.

Gurley has a chronic knee problem.  It may or may not impact him anytime in between September this year and year(s) from now.  This is not new news.  Nothing's going to change between now and September either.

Henderson is good.  I think/thought he was the best back available in this class.  By quite a bit, actually.  But him falling to the 3rd round should give some pause.  But the Rams moving up to get him despite limited draft capital should get his detractors attention.

Ideally, the Rams don't (want to) use him as a lead back.  But if their hand is forced then they will do it.

Out of curiosity I pulled up my rookie cheat sheet to see exactly where I had Henderson a month ago - and feel like it's still the right spot.  I don't do rankings anymore because it's not how I assemble my bored, but for offensive skill players plan was to get in a spot to pick Sanders or move backwards and hope Henderson or Isabella slip.

Tl;dr - Henderson was under valued a month ago and for rookie draft purposes is probably appropriately valued now, but beware in start-up's - or if you drafted a month ago and passed then.

 

[TripItUp]

No you're not. You're trying to call out people who you think were wrong. Please don't do that. Keep it 100% on football and not trying to gloat when you're right or take digs at others who were wrong asking them to revisit something they said a couple of weeks ago. 

Keep it 100% on the player and not posters. We're already down skinjohnfan who wasn't able to do this. 

Please keep it to football and not other posters.

I’m bumping posts and asking those posters, in light of recent reports from Ian Rappaport and Jay Glazer,  have they changed their mind? 

If there is abetter way way to do that, I’m all ears. 

 

[BradtheAg]

Just don't do that at all.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I’m bumping posts and asking those posters, in light of recent reports from Ian Rappaport and Jay Glazer,  have they changed their mind? 

If there is abetter way way to do that, I’m all ears. 

So you find their opinions really important and need that info for your upcoming drafts?

 

[TripItUp]

So you find their opinions really important and need that info for your upcoming drafts?

This is a ff discussion board, I’m quoting posters to discuss ff with them

 

[TripItUp]

Just don't do that at all.

Quote posters and ask them if they’ve changed their mind in light of recent significant media reports?

uhhh , okay

 

[wgoldsph]

Quote posters and ask them if they’ve changed their mind in light of recent significant media reports?

uhhh , okay

A single post saying "do these two articles change anyone's opinion" isn't dickish.  Going post by post and telling everyone to look at how smart you are is.

 

[TripItUp]

A single post saying "do these two articles change anyone's opinion" isn't dickish.  Going post by post and telling everyone to look at how smart you are is.

A single post doesn’t notify those that have a different opinion....that’s the functional utility of the quote.

 

[Arodin]

A single post doesn’t notify those that have a different opinion....that’s the functional utility of the quote.

There is this little plus button next to the “quote” button that lets you quote multiple people in a sngle quote.  They all get notified.

 

[barackdhouse]

So meanwhile let's move on please. Nobody has changed their mind. And if they have or haven't so what? Nobody gives a rip. I'm big on the DH train but it's not like I think people are crazy to pump the brakes. This is one of the trickiest fantasy situations we've seen in awhile. It's fine to plant a flag and say I think x, y or z. And it's ok to dissect other people's arguments, but let's move on. Nobody wants to have conversations in this manner.

 

[TripItUp]

There is this little plus button next to the “quote” button that lets you quote multiple people in a sngle quote.  They all get notified.

Did not know that, thanks.

 

[MAC_32]

So meanwhile let's move on please. 

Isn't going to happen as long as he's still here.  I've never reported anyone here - at least in part because I'm no model citizen either, but I'm thinking about it.  He's too obtuse and lacks the self awareness to understand what he's doing and why it's wrong and he keeps defying demands from the powers that be, so there is no reason to believe it will stop.

 

[cloppbeast]

As Henderson skyrockets up "experts" rankings and ADP...

Are you still holding true to your "draft capital" ranking of Henderson?

Sticking with my Henderson ranking, too low for me to ever get him. 

Like a lot of other people have already said, nothing has really changed here. It's just an echo chamber, different reporters using different words to say the same thing about Gurleys knee: The Rams and Gurley are worried about it long-term, and he wont get as many touches. We knew this.

Bump me when something definitive comes out. 

 

[Bojang0301]

I’d prefer to have a discussion about re-draft/best ball. The upside is being tapped out with this latest burst of hype. If he climbs to the 6th and then gets big runs in preseason I don’t know if that will be the last stop upward. I don’t know that he can be a target there without a clear understanding of the situation and Gurley which we assuredly will not get.

Not trying to call anyone out. I would like to say that it was put into question that I didn’t understand the fantasy marketplace in my assessment of Henderson vs the rest of the class. I tried to explain that McVay lied throughout the playoffs about Gurley and even had a lengthy post with several of his quotes. Tea leaves are important and so is understanding the context of the situation if things break right. People were asleep at the wheel in May. I am jealous of the person who positioned themself to get Miles Sanders and Henderson at the May discount.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm pro-Henderson but in the sake of fairness, Adam Schefter was on Golic and Wingo this morning and while he reiterated that the Rams love Henderson (now and pre-draft) he also said some of the recent media reports about the Rams being concerned about Gurley's knee are overblown. They do want to keep him fresh and will limit his workload to some extent but they're also fully confident that he will continue to be the workhorse, albeit with a bit lighter workload overall.

Basically no one really knows right now.

 

[cloppbeast]

Not trying to call anyone out. I would like to say that it was put into question that I didn’t understand the fantasy marketplace in my assessment of Henderson vs the rest of the class. I tried to explain that McVay lied throughout the playoffs about Gurley and even had a lengthy post with several of his quotes. Tea leaves are important and so is understanding the context of the situation if things break right. People were asleep at the wheel in May. 

How many touches do think Gurley is going to get? The hype around Henderson is like Gurley is going to be the COP back.

 

[Shrek]

My question is, if you are a Gurley owner, how much higher on average are you bumping Henderson on your board for handcuff purposes? 

 

[wgoldsph]

My question is, if you are a Gurley owner, how much higher on average are you bumping Henderson on your board for handcuff purposes? 

If we're talking about an initial draft, to me he jumps right above the last teir of "starting" rbs.  Protecting your first round pick instead of grabbing a sub player seems more important.

 

[MAC_32]

My question is, if you are a Gurley owner, how much higher on average are you bumping Henderson on your board for handcuff purposes? 

He was my number one predraft at pick #10 last month.  Was not gonna mess around trying to move up from #22 to make sure I got him.  If we didn't draft til now then I'd be trying to move up from #10.  But stuff like this is why we draft when we do.  The later you draft the more you can let other influences effect ADP instead of your own work.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

I'm pro-Henderson but in the sake of fairness, Adam Schefter was on Golic and Wingo this morning and while he reiterated that the Rams love Henderson (now and pre-draft) he also said some of the recent media reports about the Rams being concerned about Gurley's knee are overblown. They do want to keep him fresh and will limit his workload to some extent but they're also fully confident that he will continue to be the workhorse, albeit with a bit lighter workload overall.

Basically no one really knows right now.

Well thats nice to hear as a Gurley owner.  Havent heard anything that positive about him since around week 12 last year.  

Regarding Henderson, Here are his measurables from the combine...https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/darrell-henderson

His athletic profile is not special in any way, but its fine.  His most favorable comps are DeAngelo Williams and Sony Michael, but those are both 82% comps.  He appears to be more athletically comparable to guys like Kendall Hunter, Isaiah Pead, Duke Johnson, and DeAndre Washington (84%-90% comps) - guys that were best suited to be 3rd down COP types.  I understand that athletic measurables are not the end all be all, but they are certainly a metric that should be considered in evaluating a players value/possible role.  

 

[dkp993]

My question is, if you are a Gurley owner, how much higher on average are you bumping Henderson on your board for handcuff purposes? 

I am in my main big dollar keeper league.  It's an auction league so I will have DH on my board but I will not drastically overpay just to get him.  I'm not super worried about TG this year. As I stated a few pages back even if he takes a 25/30% overall reduction in points hit this year he'll still be top 5ish.    

 

[ChuckLiddell]

My question is, if you are a Gurley owner, how much higher on average are you bumping Henderson on your board for handcuff purposes? 

I have the 13th overall pick and if he drops to me there I will take him.  If the cost to move up is not more than throwing in a mid 3rd, then I will probably just wait to see how it shakes out.  There are going to be some very good picks available at 13, and if DH goes before then, thats just one more really good player dropping that I can choose from.

I am not convinced that DH is the type of player many on here are hoping that he is.  I think there is a good chance he is a valuable NFL role player, but not a future stud FFB commodity. 

 

[Bojang0301]

How many touches do think Gurley is going to get? The hype around Henderson is like Gurley is going to be the COP back.

I don’t even think they know if he’s going to be available to them if I’m being honest with you. I haven’t wanted to say that because it’s just going to get everyone worked up again but what about this suggests Gurley is healthy? He looked awful in the playoffs, he has had no offseason surgery and we’ve been told this is chronic. They could hope he makes it back to some form and have the same thing happen week 1 as did against the Patriots, then what? 

I think Henderson needs 180 touches to be viable this year. That’s about the same as White, Cohen and Lindsey and not that far off from Mack, Coleman and I believe a few others who ended up in the top 20. This all assumes the Rams maintain high efficiency, low run totals against stacked boxes and Henderson himself is hyper efficient. 

If Gurley is available I would think their plan would be to keep him under 250 or 225 touches. I don’t have a lot to base that on but they’ll definitely wanting to play keep away from 300 and if they’re in a comfortable position within the division they’ll want to rest him for the playoffs. I think that would only leave Henderson between 100-150 touches dependent on Brown’s assumed usage. 

I think in Gurley’s worst case 225-250 touches is Henderson’s ceiling with a lot of work falling to Malcolm Brown. I think in Henderson’s worst case he only sees around 100 touches and doesn’t get more than 20-25 receptions. The variability does not make him attractive to me in best ball/redraft. I still love his ceiling in dynasty and think he’s the best player available. Asking a player to be uber-efficient is a bit dangerous but also rewarding as they don’t need a lot of bulk work to succeed.

 

[voiceofunreason]

This is a ff discussion board, I’m quoting posters to discuss ff with them

Okay, so you're unsure about Henderson and want more opinions?

 

[cloppbeast]

I don’t even think they know if Guley’s going to be available to them if I’m being honest with you...

I think in Gurley’s worst case 225-250 touches is Henderson’s ceiling with a lot of work falling to Malcolm Brown. I think in Henderson’s worst case he only sees around 100 touches and doesn’t get more than 20-25 receptions. The variability does not make him attractive to me in best ball/redraft. I still love his ceiling in dynasty and think he’s the best player available. Asking a player to be uber-efficient is a bit dangerous but also rewarding as they don’t need a lot of bulk work to succeed.

Some of this doesn't compute. We technically dont know if Gurley will ever play again, but counting on it to pick Henderson, yeah idk. From what information we have, I like the 225-275 touches for Gurley little better. Which gives Henderson an upside of 180 or 200 touches, 40 or 60 of them being catches helps in ppr. But if your only RB1 upside comes from some Kamara efficiency, well I mean you're betting on the horse with 90:1 odds; ok to do but not mid 1st of rookie drafts.

 

[leftcoastheel]

I’d prefer to have a discussion about re-draft/best ball. The upside is being tapped out with this latest burst of hype. If he climbs to the 6th and then gets big runs in preseason I don’t know if that will be the last stop upward. I don’t know that he can be a target there without a clear understanding of the situation and Gurley which we assuredly will not get.

Not trying to call anyone out. I would like to say that it was put into question that I didn’t understand the fantasy marketplace in my assessment of Henderson vs the rest of the class. I tried to explain that McVay lied throughout the playoffs about Gurley and even had a lengthy post with several of his quotes. Tea leaves are important and so is understanding the context of the situation if things break right. People were asleep at the wheel in May. I am jealous of the person who positioned themself to get Miles Sanders and Henderson at the May discount.

He went early 5th in an FFPC draft over the weekend... I wanted him, but way too early for me.

 

[LawFitz]

You don’t really believe that nobody in the forum has ever posted “fool’s gold” before, right?

Edit: Here you go. 

Thx. Here's some interesting takes from that poster:

Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season. EDIT: Just watched more. I saw him get DESTROYED by a cornerback in open space... that's not good. His big runs are where he's untouched. I watched him run a sweep that's supposed to go outside, but he chose to cut back inside for ??? reason and he got clobbered by 2 defenders. Oh god, it's so bad. It's all so bad. This guy is fools gold. Yeah, I'm moving him down to the "Probabaly Not" section.
 

I don't believe in his talent enough, even in a good landing spot, to justify ranking him anywhere. He was THE number one guy that I was most-excited to review. I remember getting beer and popcorn as I sat down with a big smile ready to analyze him and write a glaring report. I came away so disappointed after I realized that most of his success was due to great coaching and blocking. He doesn't run around people, he runs through them. You can get away with that at the college level, but not at the NFL level. Nobody with his size and running style combined has ever had success in the NFL.

He also only ever carried the ball in one hand (left). That's what RoJo did. His interviews are terrible. I don't believe he's coachable. This is a wasted pick by the Rams.

MrUbuto wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:34 am

Henderson was crazy productive in college. Over 8ypc

So was:

Jhurell Pressley (2014)
Devon Johnson (2014)
Ty Johnson (2016)
Teriyon Gipson (2016)
Timothy McVey (2016)
Khalil Tate (2017)
Malcolm Perry (2017)
Greg McCrae (2018)
Kennedy Brooks (2018)
Reggie Corbin (2018)
Travis Etienne (2018)

8+ YPC != NFL Ability

But, but, but 8+ YPC!!!

I still defer to and respect McVay's judgement about Henderson's prospects, but when I watch him I see a somewhat faster version of DeAndre Washington. If you don't know who that it is, don't worry, you shouldn't. Let's see if McVay can make something here. It certainly wouldn't shock me, but I think the odds favor COP usage.

And nothing's changed with respect to Gurley. We all knew his knee is problematic. The real question is whether or not Henderson can be a capable feature-back replacement or just a COP. I'm still thinking it'll be the latter, except perhaps for short bursts of his career arc. This thread alone will make it super interesting!

 

[TripItUp]

Okay, so you're unsure about Henderson and want more opinions?

No, I'm trying to gage the market...and understand the Gurley owner mentality.  This helps me in money/best ball drafts that I'm currently participating in.

 

[ghostguy123]

No, I'm trying to gage the market...and understand the Gurley owner mentality.  This helps me in money/best ball drafts that I'm currently participating in.

If Henderson starts the year doing nothing for 5 games are you going to go back and quote everyone telling them they were right? Or quote yourself and ask yourself if you still believe yourself?

Even though nothing has changed for either gurley  or Henderson, the Henderson ADP will rise some as more of a market correction from early drafts.  Most people who follow this stuff all offseason dont change their ranking much while others who are just now really starting to pay attention have more to go on than just NFL draft position.

 

[TripItUp]

If Henderson starts the year doing nothing for 5 games are you going to go back and quote everyone telling them they were right? Or quote yourself and ask yourself if you still believe yourself?

Even though nothing has changed for either gurley  or Henderson, the Henderson ADP will rise some as more of a market correction from early drafts.  Most people who follow this stuff all offseason dont change their ranking much while others who are just now really starting to pay attention have more to go on than just NFL draft position.

I'm not most people, I have several thousand dollars tied up in high stakes drafts regularly.  

 

[tangfoot]

I'm not most people, I have several thousand dollars tied up in high stakes draft regularly.  

And yet you're petty enough to troll this thread "looking for opinions"?

 

[ghostguy123]

I'm not most people, I have several thousand dollars tied up in high stakes drafts regularly.  

You clearly did not read my post.

 

[Hankmoody]

Please stop quoting him, it invalidates the ignore function I so dearly need.

 

[ghostguy123]

And yet you're petty enough to troll this thread "looking for opinions"?

We are the competition 

 

[Shrek]

I have the 13th overall pick and if he drops to me there I will take him.  If the cost to move up is not more than throwing in a mid 3rd, then I will probably just wait to see how it shakes out.  There are going to be some very good picks available at 13, and if DH goes before then, thats just one more really good player dropping that I can choose from.

I am not convinced that DH is the type of player many on here are hoping that he is.  I think there is a good chance he is a valuable NFL role player, but not a future stud FFB commodity. 

See, I'm in this boat too right now. I have Gurley in 3 different 10-team dynasty leagues and I have the 1.07 and 2.7 in all of them. First, I think the hype is high right now and is bound to settle more toward August drafts (like mine are). And I don't really feel the need to trade up from 1.7 to get DH.I feel like, if he falls to me there, I may take him, and I think there's a good chance he will be there every draft. How many non-Gurley owners are really going to want to spend a top 6 pick on him? My wager is not many. I'm even starting to lean toward not taking him at all if he's available at 1.07 because I feel he might be available at 2.07 for the same reasons. 

 

[Warhogs]

I was hoping Joe B. jumping in would help this thread but it's still a total train wreck. I picked up Henderson very late in my dynasty draft according to most accounts here so I keep checking in but there is just a lot of cat fighting and little information. I guess I will check back in a month and see if there is anything useful.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

See, I'm in this boat too right now. I have Gurley in 3 different 10-team dynasty leagues and I have the 1.07 and 2.7 in all of them. First, I think the hype is high right now and is bound to settle more toward August drafts (like mine are). And I don't really feel the need to trade up from 1.7 to get DH.I feel like, if he falls to me there, I may take him, and I think there's a good chance he will be there every draft. How many non-Gurley owners are really going to want to spend a top 6 pick on him? My wager is not many. I'm even starting to lean toward not taking him at all if he's available at 1.07 because I feel he might be available at 2.07 for the same reasons. 

There's no way I would take him 1.7 personally.  If I dont get him at 2.1 (13th), I wont even be all that upset.  I think I would rather have Marquise Brown. I believe DH is way overhyped on here, and the Gurley situation is probably nowhere near as bleak as people are making it out to be.  DH may prove valuable to the Rams, but he does not have the look to me of a blue chip fantasy asset.

 

[The Man With No Name]

See, I'm in this boat too right now. I have Gurley in 3 different 10-team dynasty leagues and I have the 1.07 and 2.7 in all of them. First, I think the hype is high right now and is bound to settle more toward August drafts (like mine are). And I don't really feel the need to trade up from 1.7 to get DH.I feel like, if he falls to me there, I may take him, and I think there's a good chance he will be there every draft. How many non-Gurley owners are really going to want to spend a top 6 pick on him? My wager is not many. I'm even starting to lean toward not taking him at all if he's available at 1.07 because I feel he might be available at 2.07 for the same reasons. 

Depends when drafts are. I have one in late August so more will be known about Gurley and we will have seen Henderson play preseason games. That will have an impact on where he goes in that draft. He won't go to me unless he lasts until pick 16. Rams may not put out legit info on Gurley's health until they have too. Not sure when that is. 

 

[Arodin]

Depends when drafts are. I have one in late August so more will be known about Gurley and we will have seen Henderson play preseason games. That will have an impact on where he goes in that draft. He won't go to me unless he lasts until pick 16. Rams may not put out legit info on Gurley's health until they have too. Not sure when that is. 

I would have said “Thursday before the week 1 game” except that last year’s playoff run suggests the real answer might be “never.”

 

[King of the Jungle]

There's no way I would take him 1.7 personally.  If I dont get him at 2.1 (13th), I wont even be all that upset.  I think I would rather have Marquise Brown. I believe DH is way overhyped on here, and the Gurley situation is probably nowhere near as bleak as people are making it out to be.  DH may prove valuable to the Rams, but he does not have the look to me of a blue chip fantasy asset.

I understand the hesitation but Marquise Brown doesn’t have the look of a blue chip either IMO. Put a guy with game changing characteristics in a prolific offense and his chances for success increase IMO. Don’t love Lamar ever turning into a consistent thrower of the ball and Baltimore has historically been designed around defense and running.

My point is that although DH has his flaws he has enough potential explosiveness to mesh real well with one of the up and coming great offensive minded coaches. He warrants consideration in the mid first of this years weak draft class IMO.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

I understand the hesitation but Marquise Brown doesn’t have the look of a blue chip either IMO. Put a guy with game changing characteristics in a prolific offense and his chances for success increase IMO. Don’t love Lamar ever turning into a consistent thrower of the ball and Baltimore has historically been designed around defense and running.

My point is that although DH has his flaws he has enough potential explosiveness to mesh real well with one of the up and coming great offensive minded coaches. He warrants consideration in the mid first of this years weak draft class IMO.

No intention of turning this into a Marquise Brown discussion, but I dont agree with your take.  Guy has the look of a big play waiting to happen on every touch, and will be playing for a good coaching staff that just spent a very valuable first round pick on him.  He will most definitely get his opportunities - whether or not he can capitalize on them is the question - and his skillset is unique and pretty amazing so I think he will.  And I also love how people have already closed the book on Lamar Jackson - a 22 year old first round pick who was thrust into an offense that was designed for Joe Flacco.  Sorry - dont want to hijack - can take this to the Brown thread if we want.

 

[TripItUp]

I think the summary is, most people in this thread  have not changed their rankings/evaluation despite the Glazer and Rappaport stories.  

That's really what I wanted to know.  Thanks to those that stuck to the topic.  

 

[cloppbeast]

I think the summary is, most people in this thread  have not changed their rankings/evaluation despite the Glazer and Rappaport stories.  

Specifically, what has changed since the Glazer and Rappaport stories - is gurley done?

 

[Biabreakable]

I don’t even think they know if he’s going to be available to them if I’m being honest with you. I haven’t wanted to say that because it’s just going to get everyone worked up again but what about this suggests Gurley is healthy? He looked awful in the playoffs, he has had no offseason surgery and we’ve been told this is chronic. They could hope he makes it back to some form and have the same thing happen week 1 as did against the Patriots, then what? 

I think Henderson needs 180 touches to be viable this year. That’s about the same as White, Cohen and Lindsey and not that far off from Mack, Coleman and I believe a few others who ended up in the top 20. This all assumes the Rams maintain high efficiency, low run totals against stacked boxes and Henderson himself is hyper efficient. 

If Gurley is available I would think their plan would be to keep him under 250 or 225 touches. I don’t have a lot to base that on but they’ll definitely wanting to play keep away from 300 and if they’re in a comfortable position within the division they’ll want to rest him for the playoffs. I think that would only leave Henderson between 100-150 touches dependent on Brown’s assumed usage. 

I think in Gurley’s worst case 225-250 touches is Henderson’s ceiling with a lot of work falling to Malcolm Brown. I think in Henderson’s worst case he only sees around 100 touches and doesn’t get more than 20-25 receptions. The variability does not make him attractive to me in best ball/redraft. I still love his ceiling in dynasty and think he’s the best player available. Asking a player to be uber-efficient is a bit dangerous but also rewarding as they don’t need a lot of bulk work to succeed.

This seems like a logical framework of possibilities to me.

For Henderson to get similar opportunity to rookie Kamara with a healthy Gurley would likely take one or two of their WR getting injured. 

I could see 50 receptions I suppose. Gurley is a good receiver too though.

Lots of mouths to feed in this offense.

 

[TripItUp]

Specifically, what has changed since the Glazer and Rappaport stories - is gurley done?

I stated this earlier, but It's not that anything has changed, it's that Gurley speculation/fears were further validated.  IMHO.

There were also some positive coach speak blurbs on Henderson but I don't put much stock into that kind of stuff.