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I don't think he will get more than 55% of the carries to be honest and wouldn't be surprised if it's a 50/50 split. McVay can't be trusted. It's not like Henderson is a Todd Gurley before injuries robbed him and Henderson himself has had trouble staying on the field. I'm saying this as a Henderson owner in 2 leagues and Michel in none.
The last week I’ve been live mocking like crazy and he’s been predominantly going in the 5th. He’s probably a 6th rounder now.
Usage is going to definitively answer that question, but I’m inclined to agree. Other than Henderson is completely familiar with McVay’s concepts right now while Sony probably has some playbook to learn, but it is possible that Michel is given a chance here, or that it’s full RBBC.
This has a Fournette/Jones vibe written all over it to me. I'm not touching either guy until round 8 or so, and if that means I get neither, I'm happy with that.
Depends on what platform you're drafting from. In FPC redrafts he is going mid 4th for the most part. I imagine he falls to the 6th here and there now. I'm really not scared off as I think this was largely inevitable. Henderson is still the main guy here. So we seem to be in agreement about dropping about a round but I wonder if it will be further. I think he just became a little bit of a value again although I never had a problem taking him in the 4th before.
I can't speak for what the Rams plans are and how they will use him, but IMO Michel is probably a 150-175 carry, 30 reception back if utilized properly. They could likely give him more work (but he has been injury prone).
Michel has averaged 15 carries a game across his NFL career. That’s a much bigger workload than Henderson has seen. As I said earlier, I don’t know what McVay has in store for Michel, but I would expect it’s more than just being a true backup RB.
their value was purely “‘next man up”
both are easy drops now. Sony’s value is now “next man up” at the very least, and as others have suggested, potentially time-share RB at best.
And as “next man up” behind a dude who’s been dinged up pretty often, Sony may have an easier path to value than others.
And I will trade him the instant that happens.
Maybe for last year, but I believe most expectations for THIS YEAR were that Akers was going to be more of a featured / primary back.
that’s absolutely flex-worrhy, especially in what I expect to be a potent offense.
Team Rushing TD:that’s absolutely flex-worrhy, especially in what I expect to be a potent offense.
wonder how Mike sees the RZ touches playing out.
I suggested this 5 minutes after the news broke that Akers was done for the season back in July. I can't really take 100% credit, as since then it appeared NE was ramping up Michel for an in-house role this season while the Rams didn't seem all that interested in adding someone from outside the organization. Henderson's thumb injury likely turned the tide on the Rams side . . . and strong performances from Stevenson and Taylor swayed things for the Patriots. It would be strange should Michel end up ranked the highest at the end of the year for the backs in play here.
The NE crowd on these boards and I have had multiple discussions over the years about how the Patriots use their running RBs in the receiving game. The script is the same every time they bring in someone new . . . PLAYER X always flashes more receiving sklls, better hands, more promise in the passing game than originally anticipated and PLAYER X will be a force catching passes out of the backfield. The problem is, that hasn't ever really happened.
part of why we don’t know that much about Henderson is his injury history.
IIRC, the average time lost by RB each year is 2.5-3.0 games . . . but I am not sure we can pin that on Henderson or if that should be applied to all backs.
I agree with travdogg, based purely on stats:
If you added one more season for Henderson they look remarkably similar. I wouldn’t call either of them proven. They’re both injury prone part time backs so far in their careers. Henderson has looked better (to me at least) if you go by eye test. I have each in 2 different leagues so I’m not coming in with any bias, just not sure how you could call either more proven
How does this raise Henderson’s floor? I would think not acquiring a veteran back would have kept his floor and ceiling higher.
I guess it depends what numbers we want to compare. Michel has averaged 15 carries a game over his 3 year career. IIRC, Henderson has one game with more than 15 carries in his 2 years in the league. I am not suggesting one is better than the other, but Michel has played more snaps, has more experience, and at times has been a heavy workload back. Who knows if that makes Michel more proven or more desirable . . . or if that gets Michel more playing time. But IMO Michel has proven he can get a bigger workload. Of course, he's also been dinged up, so there will be arguments and counter arguments either way.
From a Patriots fan, he's a JAG. No burst, no shake n bake and goes down on 1st contact.
As far as Henderson goes, I don't see how this could possibly be a good thing. IMO, Michel takes at least half the RB workload with LAR. . . and probably more. Michel could easily be the majority ball carrier. IIRC, Henderson has only had one career game with more than 15 carries (and 3 total games with 16+ touches). He had 5 games with 20 carries at Memphis, but he only had a bigger workload as a senior. Not saying he couldn't handle a bigger workload . . . but he certainly hasn't done so (or been asked to do so) at the NFL level. We already know Michel can be a 250 touch RB . . . last year Henderson averaged 10 touches per game. Maybe he gets more than that, but I would expect Michel to get more touches than Henderson.
He was a jag his first two years. He was far from a jag last year (unless you think bums put up 5.7 ypc) and has looked fantastic in training camp. He turned the corner last year. He is currently none of the things you just posted. I posted a ton about this today in the Michel thread.
I'm no X's and O's kind of guy, but I think the complementary games of Henderson and Michel provide the offense with lots of unique possibilities, like moving Henderson to the slot, say on third downs - like on this Memphis State highlight.
sorry, you are wrong. I've watched him every game, he's a jag...and lost his job last season
We might find out midway through this year that Harris is a jag (despite decent ypc last year). This is a very interesting development for Harris and Stevenson.
As I have mentioned multiple times today, I can't speak much on Henderson as I may have seen him play a couple of times. That being said, NE was said to have been experimenting with playing Michel on the outside, in the slot, and in motion some this off season. Who knows if that means the Rams might use him that way some, but NE was definitely trying to expand his roles and usefulness.
Good thing he isn't going to the Rams with a healthy Marshall Faulk in his prime. Michel isn't an elite talent by any stretch, but the Rams running back cupboard isn't exactly overflowing with All Pro caliber options right now. PFF had Michel ranked in the Top 10 RB in the league last year. If Michel was a JAG, then there only about 6 or 8 really good backs in the league. Michel may be a middle of the road back . . . but that's kind of the point. The Rams didn't even have middle of the road backs as options.
I'd be surprised if McVay chose to make either guy a bellcow. If my very short term memory is not failing me the Rams have 473, 401, and 459 rushing attempts the past three years, and Akers, Henderson, and Brown caught 69 passes last season; so using napkin math lets say Michel and Henderson split 420 carries this season (230-190, respectively), and catches 45-25 (admittedly a slightly biased and favorable projection for Henderson). 255 touches Michel, 235 for Henderson. That sounds about right to me, assuming good health for all.
