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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (2 Viewers)

Almost a month gone by in the Henry thread. Weeks 15 and 16 look to be promising right now. I'd love to see him assume the role even more than he did last week. Murray has been Q with some illness. Perhaps all of our hopes and dreams will be realized over the next month. (Maybe I'll grow wings and start pooping gold bricks, but hey, a guy can dream!)

 
Two consecutive seasons of burning a roster spot on this guy. Love his talent and the offensive philosophy but, clearly I was two years early.

 
i was dead wrong in assuming the titans would get curbstomped by the chiefs... so i benched henry. is there any reason to believe he can have a decent fantasy day against NE?

 
i was dead wrong in assuming the titans would get curbstomped by the chiefs... so i benched henry. is there any reason to believe he can have a decent fantasy day against NE?
Well, apparently NE has not been very good against the run this year, surrending 4.7 ypc to opponents. What hurts is that Titans probably fall behind early and have to pass to stay in it, but they will still run Henry enough to get him 20 carries I would guess.

 
i was dead wrong in assuming the titans would get curbstomped by the chiefs... so i benched henry. is there any reason to believe he can have a decent fantasy day against NE?
Yes. Patriots yield yardage but stiffen in the red zone. It is reasonable to expect 100+ total yards if the game stays close. Don't expect a score, though.

 
Well, apparently NE has not been very good against the run this year, surrending 4.7 ypc to opponents. What hurts is that Titans probably fall behind early and have to pass to stay in it, but they will still run Henry enough to get him 20 carries I would guess.
Like they did down 21-3 this weekend?

 
Exactly. And they kept feeding Henry despite being down. So it is hard to see a reason why Henry isn't a good bet this week.
My biggest concern would be if the Pats gameplan to take him out - daring Mariota to take over the game (which with his scrambling ability he might be able to) - but obviously that would be bad for Henry. Still. it's hard to take a 247 pound bruiser completely out of the game plan

 
So, in light of how well Henry has played, you are in a start up dynasty draft tomorrow, does Henry crack the top 10? 15? 20? 25?

I think he's a solid second round pick.

 
Drafted him the last two seasons in my redraft. 32 games of waiting and, of course he breaks out in game 33.

If the Titans dump DeMarco this offseason is Henry a first round pick in 2018 redrafts?

 
Drafted him the last two seasons in my redraft. 32 games of waiting and, of course he breaks out in game 33.

If the Titans dump DeMarco this offseason is Henry a first round pick in 2018 redrafts?
No 

not close imo ... could be value at the end of the 2nd though. I just don't trust his game.

 
Drafted him the last two seasons in my redraft. 32 games of waiting and, of course he breaks out in game 33.

If the Titans dump DeMarco this offseason is Henry a first round pick in 2018 redrafts?
ten years ago yeah, but with so many WRs being in the first now plus a QB or two some years, nah.

I think he's more rock solid like when Curtis Martin played. You'll get predictable weekly stuff and hope for a special game but generally just solid weeks

 
Ack88 said:
So, in light of how well Henry has played, you are in a start up dynasty draft tomorrow, does Henry crack the top 10? 15? 20? 25?

I think he's a solid second round pick.
Well in dynasty, ya gotta love a heisman winning beast running behind what was the best line a year ago. He'd be late first or second when the risks begin. There are sure bet stars that should go before him

 
If the Titans dump DeMarco this offseason is Henry a first round pick in 2018 redrafts?




 
I have never seen or heard anyone from Tennessee say DeMarco wouldn't be back. This is national people thinking they're some great team churning players out and replacing with new gems or somesuch and missing the sort of false smalltown vibe of Nashville. They adore DeMarco....everyone from Amy to JRob to Mularkey to fans. However society there learned to respectfully treat stars (country music) DeMarco loves it. He is one of the best pass catching and pass blocking backs in football. If there's some contract issue (the Titans always have gobs of $ under the cap) that's unforeseen, they'll still try every possible way to keep him and have him retire there. There's so much mutual admiration.

MAYBE something else to remember. He was hurt in preseason and Derrick rocked some weeks. They spoke a lot of Murray teaching Henry. I specifically remember a story of Fowler and Murray explaining that Henry is turning the wrong way after a catch and "open" to a fumble. 

 
I expect Murray to be back but I also expect Henry to become the 1A.  If Murray is back, I think Henry is a late second or early third. If Murray is gone, Henry is a first round pick.

 
What are the cap implications of dumping Murray vs keeping him?

Not sure what his contract looks like but he might be viewed as an expensive 1B or backup.

 
What are the cap implications of dumping Murray vs keeping him?

Not sure what his contract looks like but he might be viewed as an expensive 1B or backup.
there was already a discussion on this when they got him from Philly. There's an out for both, he and the team, after this season. 6.5 mil per but no one knows what the "final years" discussion was.

Mularkey has said he still has plenty of time left in him-many times- during this season when people questioned him.

 
Spotrac lists the out http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/demarco-murray-7790/ but not any details

I don't know what his LTBE incentives were. Based on 2016, it's possible they were likely and attainable. After his performance,  I wonder if he missed 700k this year
So what's the out? The pay him $13 mil to stay or cut him with no dead money? Are the final two seasons not guaranteed?

$6.25 mil seems like a lot of money for a soon to be 30 year old RB whose performance has been declining since the second half of 2016.

 
So what's the out? The pay him $13 mil to stay or cut him with no dead money? Are the final two seasons not guaranteed?

$6.25 mil seems like a lot of money for a soon to be 30 year old RB whose performance has been declining since the second half of 2016.
No one knows. It's assumed they have an amount for his final years though like suppose they said when it's time we'll give ya 3 mil for 3 years or somesuch

 
So what's the out? The pay him $13 mil to stay or cut him with no dead money? Are the final two seasons not guaranteed?

$6.25 mil seems like a lot of money for a soon to be 30 year old RB whose performance has been declining since the second half of 2016.


Bri said:
No one knows. It's assumed they have an amount for his final years though like suppose they said when it's time we'll give ya 3 mil for 3 years or somesuch
There isn't one.  That's Spotrac's way of saying "this is the first convenient out available".  They do it for a lot of players now, it's kind of annoying.  If there were an official out it would be listed in the lower section.

 
There isn't one.  That's Spotrac's way of saying "this is the first convenient out available".  They do it for a lot of players now, it's kind of annoying.  If there were an official out it would be listed in the lower section.
According to Florio: Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the revised four-year deal has a base value of $25.5 million, with $12.5 million guaranteed. Of that amount, $6 million is fully guaranteed in 2016, and $3 million is fully guaranteed in 2017. The remaining $3.25 million is guaranteed money is guaranteed for injury only at signing, and it converts to a full guarantee on the fifth day of the 2017 league year

Not sure how his current injury impacts the 2018 injury only guarantee but my guess is that he will have to play for $3-4 mil if he wants to stay in Tennessee.  

 
There isn't one.  That's Spotrac's way of saying "this is the first convenient out available".  They do it for a lot of players now, it's kind of annoying.  If there were an official out it would be listed in the lower section.
there were two replies by me to Chaka's Q sorry for the confusion. It's been discussed for two years now- when he was "done" coming from Philly, when he did well, and when we were wondering if Henry would take over in 2017. No one knows what the out is and what they agreed upon. There's tons of mutual admiration so he is very much expected to stay. Chaka was asking if Henry's "given the keys" then what's Murray's contract like and...they were prepared for this. I also mentioned above that Mularkey has said many times that Murray has a lot more time left and it's not old age. As you saw last week, they don't even have a quality 3rd down blitz 3rd down receiver type. He can switch to a limited role nicely. Ironically, on draft day he was only considered a 3rd down scat back so the draft folks will finally be right about him

 
According to Florio: Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the revised four-year deal has a base value of $25.5 million, with $12.5 million guaranteed. Of that amount, $6 million is fully guaranteed in 2016, and $3 million is fully guaranteed in 2017. The remaining $3.25 million is guaranteed money is guaranteed for injury only at signing, and it converts to a full guarantee on the fifth day of the 2017 league year

Not sure how his current injury impacts the 2018 injury only guarantee but my guess is that he will have to play for $3-4 mil if he wants to stay in Tennessee.  
There is no 2018 injury guarantee.  That blurb was written in 2016 and "The remaining $3.25 million is guaranteed money is guaranteed for injury only at signing" meant that if he got hurt in 2016 then that additional $3.25M would kick in.  When he didn't get hurt and they didn't cut him, it converted to fully guaranteed salary in 2017.  There's now no dead money if they cut him.  His salary for 2018 and 2019 are both $6.5M but nothing is guaranteed at this point.  He does get a $250k bonus on 3/18 if he's still with them.

There is no "out".  If they cut him they owe him nothing.  I tend to agree he'll be back, I think it's in their core strategy to have dual pounders at the position, but I think it will be at a reduced rate if so.

 
There is no 2018 injury guarantee.  That blurb was written in 2016 and "The remaining $3.25 million is guaranteed money is guaranteed for injury only at signing" meant that if he got hurt in 2016 then that additional $3.25M would kick in.  When he didn't get hurt and they didn't cut him, it converted to fully guaranteed salary in 2017.  There's now no dead money if they cut him.  His salary for 2018 and 2019 are both $6.5M but nothing is guaranteed at this point.  He does get a $250k bonus on 3/18 if he's still with them.

There is no "out".  If they cut him they owe him nothing.  I tend to agree he'll be back, I think it's in their core strategy to have dual pounders at the position, but I think it will be at a reduced rate if so.
Fair enough. I still think that reduced rate will be closer to $3-4 mil/year.

 
Fair enough. I still think that reduced rate will be closer to $3-4 mil/year.
I think it is close to a given that he (Murray) stays. The two questions are if they can negotiate a more reasonable deal (they have plenty of cap if they can't) and whether he will transition to a 3rd down/change of pace role or 1B to Henry's 1A

 
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Fair enough. I still think that reduced rate will be closer to $3-4 mil/year.
We were discussing this last night in a video chat. Someone said Harry Douglas (who is adored by these coaches which drives us fans crazy but still...) is probably the Titans/Jrob old player model. I think that's a real reasonable statement or guess.

He was signed for 3.75 per for 3 years. This final year, when he really didn't have a chance at making the team, he took a 2 mil pay cut, sat on IR "with a hangnail," was active for a game or so when their were several injuries to WRs, and inactive the rest. Basically, he got a bit over a mil to be a just in case guy his final year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/harry-douglas-3972/ note the change on the right

This also lines up with what you're thinking

 
DeMarco Murray - RB - Titans

ESPN's Cameron Wolfe believes there's a "decent chance" DeMarco Murray has played his final snap in a Titans uniform.

Already ruled out for the Divisional Round, Murray, who has a torn MCL, would be a long-shot for the AFC Championship Game even if the Titans sprang a seismic upset on Saturday night. One month shy of his 30th birthday, Murray slumped to a career-worst 3.58 yards per carry as he played injured in 2017. 23-year-old sophomore Derrick Henry has looked more than capable of taking over the Titans' workhorse role. If Murray is cut, his entire $6.5 million salary would come off the books, leaving behind no dead money.

Source: ESPN.com

Jan 11 - 4:58 PM

http://rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6585/demarco-murray

http://www.espn.com/blog/tennessee-titans/post/_/id/25101/derrick-henry-has-earned-titans-workhorse-rb-role-now-in-future

 
If Murray is indeed out of Tenn, what's a reasonable expectation for Henry in 2018?  Murray had 184 rushes and 39 receptions, a total of 223 touches to make up.  Henry had 176 carries and 11 receptions.  Would 250 & 25 be a reasonable assumption? 

 
Amused to Death said:
If Murray is indeed out of Tenn, what's a reasonable expectation for Henry in 2018?  Murray had 184 rushes and 39 receptions, a total of 223 touches to make up.  Henry had 176 carries and 11 receptions.  Would 250 & 25 be a reasonable assumption? 
I don't think we have enough data to do more than guess.

Vrabel and LaFLeur are pretty new in the game, who knows what they will bring to the table.

And does Jon Robinson have a small enough ego to be willing to let Murray go without a pay cut? Should he without a proven plan B?

 
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Amused to Death said:
If Murray is indeed out of Tenn, what's a reasonable expectation for Henry in 2018?  Murray had 184 rushes and 39 receptions, a total of 223 touches to make up.  Henry had 176 carries and 11 receptions.  Would 250 & 25 be a reasonable assumption? 
1200 / 12

 
I don't think we have enough data to do more than guess.

Vrabel and LaFLeur are pretty new in the game, who knows what they will bring to the table.

And does Jon Robinson have a small enough ego to be willing to let Murray go without a pay cut? Should he without a proven plan B?
Gurley

2015 - 1296/10 without lafleur

2016 - 1212/6 without lafleur

2017 - 2093/19 with lafleur as offensive coordinator

So there's that. 

 
You were missing a slightly important component
You could say the same thing about Pederson running Andy Reid's offense. 

We really don't know how much each guy had to do with the success but mcvey seemed to get more credit for the development of Goff than Gurley throughout the year. 

 
There is a lot of talk that Henry is not a zone blocking offense RB and not fluid enough in the passing (receiving) game to succeed. The talk is complimentary as if he is a special back but they just need a different special back and could make a trade.

Vrabel has NOT watched much tape and seems relatively uninformed of some of their players. He has been quite complimentary of every name but otherwise, surprisingly little. He has said Henry is one of the most difficult backs to tackle and is a load. The Texans had to sub more often in games against him.

He didn't bite on Qs about Henry being a back for a zone blocking offense. He asked the interviewer what that is with a "that's a stupid question" type face

He was asked about Dion Lewis(FA) and said he can't comment on other teams players

Asked about a Belichick back and he repeated his prior statement that unless you are the quarterback, you better be capable of doing more than one thing if you hope to make this team. 

Asked if his backs would catch passes and he made the same "stupid question" face and said naturally

 
There is a lot of talk that Henry is not a zone blocking offense RB and not fluid enough in the passing (receiving) game to succeed. The talk is complimentary as if he is a special back but they just need a different special back and could make a trade.

Vrabel has NOT watched much tape and seems relatively uninformed of some of their players. He has been quite complimentary of every name but otherwise, surprisingly little. He has said Henry is one of the most difficult backs to tackle and is a load. The Texans had to sub more often in games against him.

He didn't bite on Qs about Henry being a back for a zone blocking offense. He asked the interviewer what that is with a "that's a stupid question" type face

He was asked about Dion Lewis(FA) and said he can't comment on other teams players

Asked about a Belichick back and he repeated his prior statement that unless you are the quarterback, you better be capable of doing more than one thing if you hope to make this team. 

Asked if his backs would catch passes and he made the same "stupid question" face and said naturally
:)  Well if the RB has decent vision at all they should be able to function in a zone blocking system. So it is kind of a stupid question.

Henry has enough speed to run the outside zone and threaten the edge if that is what people are wondering about. Based on college play he ran outside more often than inside anyways. Alabama runs a combination of zone and power runs.

Henry can catch the ball, so that is kind of stupid question as well.

Henry is a big target for defenders to hit. That is a problem thats not going away regardless of the coaches or scheme.

 
This is step 1...before you get too happy you need to see what step 2 is...who do they bring in because they are definitely bringing in another RB or two...gotta believe they are now more committed to him but really need to see what it looks like after the draft and free agency to know how committed they are...as for Murray, he'll be a nice short-term add for the right team...he's not what he used to be but I bet there's still a little tread left on the tire in the right situation...

 
This is step 1...before you get too happy you need to see what step 2 is...who do they bring in because they are definitely bringing in another RB or two...gotta believe they are now more committed to him but really need to see what it looks like after the draft and free agency to know how committed they are...as for Murray, he'll be a nice short-term add for the right team...he's not what he used to be but I bet there's still a little tread left on the tire in the right situation...
Option A: Jerrick McKinnon

Option B: draft

Just my opinion, but a Henry/McKinnon backfield would be great for the team and Henry owners.

 
Option A: Jerrick McKinnon

Option B: draft

Just my opinion, but a Henry/McKinnon backfield would be great for the team and Henry owners.
Agreed...if you are a Henry owner you want them add to an RB that is more of a third down RB and doesn't crossover with what he does...I would get real concerned if they used something like a third-rounder on a RB like Penney or Freeman...that would scare me a lot if I owned him (which I do not)...

 
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Agreed...if you are a Henry owner you want them add to an RB that is more of a third down RB and doesn't crossover with what he does...I would get real concerned if they used something like a third-rounder on a RB like Penney or Freeman...that would scare me a lot if I owned him (which I do not)...
Penny was a player they were very interested in during the Combine

 
Penny was a player they were very interested in during the Combine
That has to make Henry owners nervous...would give Tennessee a nice 1-2 punch in real football but would not be a plus for Henry’s fantasy value...

 
Traded my first this year in week 4 or 5 for Henry hoping this situation would arise. Ended up being the 1.12, should I keep him for such a cheap price, or flip him and try and get into the top 4 this year?

 
That has to make Henry owners nervous...would give Tennessee a nice 1-2 punch in real football but would not be a plus for Henry’s fantasy value...
For fantasy value, I'd rather they draft a pure backup than a role player, but I'm fine with either.  I don't expect Henry to get every rb touch for the team, but he can catch the ball, and he's been a really effective receiver when they've gotten him the ball in the passing game, so getting a big guy who can run but wouldn't dominate the receiving work would be a good thing imo.

I'm not concerned that the titans will draft someone to sit in front of him - that would obviously suck but I don't think that's their goal.  I think they see him as a very good starter who has a couple years left on his rookie deal and is ready to be their lead back. 

The oc they've hired runs a zone blocking scheme which is similar to what Henry ran behind in college and he's had success with other backs so I'm excited to see what they do with Henry.

 

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