RB Derrick Henry, BAL (12 Viewers)

[kface]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

 

[kutta]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

 

[kface]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

And that's one year and Henry is 1 year older with a lot more tread on the tires

 

[kutta]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

Well, it's not every day we have an older, great player who had a couple down years go from a struggling team to a great team.

My overall point is just that Henry's situation is changing dramatically. And the Ravens haven't had a star RB in quite a while, so they are also likely to change how they do things on offense.

Good luck this year - hopefully you're pleasantly surprise

 

[kutta]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

And that's one year and Henry is 1 year older with a lot more tread on the tires

OK. 2 years ago the Titans were 30th in yards per game and 28th in points per game....

 

[kface]

I had low expectations for Henry this year... then I decided to take another look. The Ravens aren't the RBBC team they seem. They have been forced into it since Dobbins showed up in 2020. If Henry stays healthy, he will finish as a RB1, no question about it.

They're an RBBC with LJ though.

I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.

- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.

Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6

The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 520
  • RBs: 401
    • Edwards 211
    • Hill 100
    • Mitchell 47
    • Gordon 26
    • Dobbins 8
    • Cook 8
    • Drake 1
  • QBs: 103
    • Jackson 95
    • Huntley 8
  • WRs: 15
    • Flowers 10
    • Duvernay 4
    • Bateman 1
  • TEs: 1
    • Andrews 1

That is 21.1 RB carries per game. Adding Henry, it seems reasonable to think that will increase... maybe 23 RB carries per game. It seems reasonable Henry could get 65%... I doubt they will give him more than that because they will want to ensure he is healthy and fresh for the stretch run and playoffs. That would mean about 240 carries over the first 16 games, assuming he stays healthy. Ignoring the 17th game because they might just rest him in that game if playoff seed is locked... plus, most fantasy leagues don't play in week 18.

Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.

He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.

He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.

240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.

I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.

I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.

If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.

I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.

To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.

What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.

Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.

OK, I guess your single data point from 17 years ago using a guy generally regarded as one of the top 5 WRs of all time is the trump card.

I said that I was merely presenting a more moderate possibility. No one is obligated to agree with it or the basis for it. Heck, I even agreed with your comments in your first response.

I have Henry in my favorite dynasty league, so I would love it if he puts up a Randy Moss 2007 caliber season. I'll believe it when I see it.

I would add that I would hardly call his time with the titans 'dysfunctional'.

We are talking about the last couple years there. And yes, it was. Last year the Titans ranked 27th in points per game and 28th in yards per game. The Ravens were 4th in points per game and 5th in yards per game. Big difference.

And that's one year and Henry is 1 year older with a lot more tread on the tires

OK. 2 years ago the Titans were 30th in yards per game and 28th in points per game....

I see both arguments for sure

I lean he is a big rb with a ton of tread on his tires and this is the year he breaks down. He also doesn't catch passes and is in an offense where there are a lot of other mouths to feed

I think Mitchell is going to get a ton of play this year

 

[Gally]

I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds.

I am on that island with you. I would be shocked if Henry is below 5 ypc. His problem the last couple years was the bad o-line allowing penetration so he was being hit behind the LOS before he got going. I don't see that happening when the defense has to account for Lamar so they will be less up field quickly accounting for the mis-direction. It's a perfect fit to me.

 

[Tau837]

I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds.

I am on that island with you. I would be shocked if Henry is below 5 ypc. His problem the last couple years was the bad o-line allowing penetration so he was being hit behind the LOS before he got going. I don't see that happening when the defense has to account for Lamar so they will be less up field quickly accounting for the mis-direction. It's a perfect fit to me.

TEN 2023:

• Henry 4.2 ypc, 3.32 YAC/A = 0.88 yards before contact/attempt
• Spears 4.5 ypc, 3.15 YAC/A = 1.35 YBC/A

BAL 2023:

• Edwards 4.1 YPC, 2.76 YAC/A = 1.34 YBC/A
• Hill 4.6 YPC, 2.55 YAC/A = 2.05 YBC/A
• Mitchell 8.4 YPC, 5.68 YAC/A = 2.72 YBC/A

This data probably represents the Lamar factor that @travdogg mentions here. Two possible issues here:

• The Ravens lost 3 starting OL from last season, including their best run blocker, Morgan Moses... to the extent that the OL run blocking helped with the impressive YBC/A data above, that advantage may be diminished going forward
• Hard to explain why the gap between Henry and Spears in YBC/A was as big as it was... due to the defense keying on Henry more than Spears when he was in the backfield? Opposing defenses will probably key on Henry more than they keyed on Edwards, too, though I realize this should be mitigated somewhat by Jackson

 

[TripItUp]

Biggest concern for Henry is the Ravens limiting his usage, particularly in December during fantasy playoffs as the Ravens prepare for the postseason.

I'm pretty sure the Ravens aren't planning for 400 Henry carries.(including playoffs)

 

[travdogg]

I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds.

I am on that island with you. I would be shocked if Henry is below 5 ypc. His problem the last couple years was the bad o-line allowing penetration so he was being hit behind the LOS before he got going. I don't see that happening when the defense has to account for Lamar so they will be less up field quickly accounting for the mis-direction. It's a perfect fit to me.

TEN 2023:

• Henry 4.2 ypc, 3.32 YAC/A = 0.88 yards before contact/attempt
• Spears 4.5 ypc, 3.15 YAC/A = 1.35 YBC/A

BAL 2023:

• Edwards 4.1 YPC, 2.76 YAC/A = 1.34 YBC/A
• Hill 4.6 YPC, 2.55 YAC/A = 2.05 YBC/A
• Mitchell 8.4 YPC, 5.68 YAC/A = 2.72 YBC/A

This data probably represents the Lamar factor that @travdogg mentions here. Two possible issues here:

• The Ravens lost 3 starting OL from last season, including their best run blocker, Morgan Moses... to the extent that the OL run blocking helped with the impressive YBC/A data above, that advantage may be diminished going forward
• Hard to explain why the gap between Henry and Spears in YBC/A was as big as it was... due to the defense keying on Henry more than Spears when he was in the backfield? Opposing defenses will probably key on Henry more than they keyed on Edwards, too, though I realize this should be mitigated somewhat by Jackson

I think a fair amount (not all, but enough to make a difference) of the difference in YBC between Henry and Spears was Spears getting runs on 3rd and long.

Even having lost Moses and Zeitler (I'd argue Simpson is addition by subtraction) I think the 2024 Ravens OL is A LOT better than the 2023 Titans.

 

[Tau837]

I think a fair amount (not all, but enough to make a difference) of the difference in YBC between Henry and Spears was Spears getting runs on 3rd and long.

Per PFR splits, Spears had 11/51/0 rushing (4.6 ypc) on 3rd and 4+ yards to go last season. That means his other carries were 89/402/2 (4.5 ypc), almost the same. I don't know of a way to break down the YBC vs. YAC on those plays.

So... maybe so.

By comparison, Henry had 1/16/0 in 3rd and 4+ yards to go situations last season.

 

[Tau837]

Even having lost Moses and Zeitler (I'd argue Simpson is addition by subtraction) I think the 2024 Ravens OL is A LOT better than the 2023 Titans.

Forgot this part. PFF graded the respective run blocking of BAL and TEN as #6 (69.0) and #18 (60.2) last season. IMO the 2024 Ravens OL will likely still be better than the 2023 Titans OL, but the margin will likely be closer, reducing the advantage.

 

[Gally]

I think a fair amount (not all, but enough to make a difference) of the difference in YBC between Henry and Spears was Spears getting runs on 3rd and long.

Per PFR splits, Spears had 11/51/0 rushing (4.6 ypc) on 3rd and 4+ yards to go last season. That means his other carries were 89/402/2 (4.5 ypc), almost the same. I don't know of a way to break down the YBC vs. YAC on those plays.

So... maybe so.

By comparison, Henry had 1/16/0 in 3rd and 4+ yards to go situations last season.

I think the difference had more to do with running styles. For how good Henry is, he doesn't do great when forced to go east-west early or getting hit before he gets started. That happened a lot last year.

I think Spears is better laterally and with a bit of burst to get to the corner so I think he was a bit better in what the Titans line gave him

 

[Faust]

Bo Smolka
John Harbaugh said he has been totally impressed with RB Derrick Henry and his approach — in the weight room, the meeting room, the practice field. Says he will text coaches at night with questions. Called him a total pro.

x.com

x.com

 

[eighsse2]

Bo Smolka
John Harbaugh said he has been totally impressed with RB Derrick Henry and his approach — in the weight room, the meeting room, the practice field. Says he will text coaches at night with questions. Called him a total pro.

x.com

x.com

Typical boss, they love getting texted questions at night.

 

[Faust]

Sarah Ellison
Todd Monken on if he needs to manage Derrick Henry's workload now that he's 30 years old:

"Well, if he carries it 300 times, we're having a helluva year. I can tell you that. It means we're running it a lot; it means we're up in games. We want him to finish. We want him to be the closer.

"But first and foremost, we want him to make it through the season. It's a long season -- 17 games.

"We'll see how that goes. He's been so durable ... but I still anticipate the same of using all of our backs."

x.com

x.com

 

[jm192]

I really worry about the age. He turned 30 at the start of the year. He'll be 2/3 of the way to 31 when the season starts. He has over 2,000 carries. Does he have another RB1 year in him? They're already saying they plan to use their other backs. And certainly, they'd want to try to have him healthy come playoff time.

He's certainly a rare genetic/physical specimen. The Ravens OLine and offense as a whole will certainly help. The defense having to account for Lamar will help open things up a bit as well.

I just worry father time catches up to everyone, and depending on the cost, you may get similar production elsewhere with less risk.

 

[Bri]

I really worry about the age. He turned 30 at the start of the year. He'll be 2/3 of the way to 31 when the season starts. He has over 2,000 carries. Does he have another RB1 year in him? They're already saying they plan to use their other backs. And certainly, they'd want to try to have him healthy come playoff time.

He's certainly a rare genetic/physical specimen. The Ravens OLine and offense as a whole will certainly help. The defense having to account for Lamar will help open things up a bit as well.

I just worry father time catches up to everyone, and depending on the cost, you may get similar production elsewhere with less risk.

Gus Edwards had a lot of GL carries if not the most. I'm not concerned of his age, but if I were, Henry getting those "covers" any age downturn imo like he's getting points one way or another

 

[travdogg]

I really worry about the age. He turned 30 at the start of the year. He'll be 2/3 of the way to 31 when the season starts. He has over 2,000 carries. Does he have another RB1 year in him? They're already saying they plan to use their other backs. And certainly, they'd want to try to have him healthy come playoff time.

He's certainly a rare genetic/physical specimen. The Ravens OLine and offense as a whole will certainly help. The defense having to account for Lamar will help open things up a bit as well.

I just worry father time catches up to everyone, and depending on the cost, you may get similar production elsewhere with less risk.

Gus Edwards had a lot of GL carries if not the most. I'm not concerned of his age, but if I were, Henry getting those "covers" any age downturn imo like he's getting points one way or another

Yep. I think Henry is the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing TDs. Probably top-3 in rushing yards as well. He has less competition for carries than he had in Tennessee. Keaton Mitchell is likely PUP, and was a very small sample size anyway, and at this point if Justice Hill was gonna be something, it would have happened by now. I'd be shocked if Henry saw fewer than 250 carries.

I think Henry is a top-5 RB, with as high a ceiling as anyone other than CMC.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm thinking Henry is probably overrated right now and selling is ideal if you can get something decent for him.

Depends on what you mean by decent.

Hard to explain why the gap between Henry and Spears in YBC/A was as big as it was... due to the defense keying on Henry more than Spears when he was in the backfield? Opposing defenses will probably key on Henry more than they keyed on Edwards, too, though I realize this should be mitigated somewhat by Jackson

It definitely looked like the defenses were keying on Henry while he was out there.
Ravens other players are substantially better than what the Titans had last year.

Spears also was much more involved in the passing game, 70 targets with 100 carries whereas Henry had 36 targets with 280 carries. It stands to reason that if the defense basically knows that Henry either gets a handoff or isn’t involved, they more aggressively attack him more than Spears who is a target if he doesn’t get the handoff. Also, have you watched defenders try to tackle Henry after he gets going? Trying to hit him early is well worth the risk of missing that tackle. That part doesn’t change, but I think the other skill players make up for it and make defenses far more reluctant to over pursue.

 

[Ilov80s]

No matter what you think of Henry, he’s got the biggest TD upside of any player not named CMC. Gus Bus scored 13 last year. I mean Henry could easily hit 15-20.

 

[satch]

No matter what you think of Henry, he’s got the biggest TD upside of any player not named CMC. Gus Bus scored 13 last year. I mean Henry could easily hit 15-20.

This seems to be the most widely agreed upon perspective. Suppose the Ravens employ their typical RB committee approach and Henry scores 17 TDs. Where would he finish among RBs in .5 ppr leagues?

 

[Ilov80s]

No matter what you think of Henry, he’s got the biggest TD upside of any player not named CMC. Gus Bus scored 13 last year. I mean Henry could easily hit 15-20.

This seems to be the most widely agreed upon perspective. Suppose the Ravens employ their typical RB committee approach and Henry scores 17 TDs. Where would he finish among RBs in .5 ppr leagues?

Not sure but Jamal Williams 2022 seems like the best analogue there and he was RB10.

 

[Faust]

Ravens' Roquan Smith: Derrick Henry still 'has a lot of tread left on that tire'

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
“Where the rubber really hits the road for the Ravens and Henry is with their use of the pistol offense in 2023. With more offenses wanting to run traditional under center run game stuff like duo and counter, but still wanting to have RPOs built into the offense with a mobile QB like Jackson.

I believe NFL offenses are going to start leaning more into the pistol offense in 2024, and that’s going to really benefit the Ravens and Henry.”

x.com

x.com

 

[ericttspikes]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

 

[Bri]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

I put whatever his average is. It could be his highest yet depending how often they're ahead in the fourth Q. They've said often he's their closer.

 

[BobbyLayne]

2030 ATT / 8 years

253.75

 

[travdogg]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

I'd guess somewhere between 275 and 350. I don't see anyone in Baltimore getting as much work as Spears got in Tennessee last season. Nothing stopping Henry from being a top-3 RB in my opinion. Very happy to get him in round 2.

 

[Faust]

Ravens' Derrick Henry has intense offseason workout regimen: Here's a rundown of his training

 

[Scoresman]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

I'd guess somewhere between 275 and 350. I don't see anyone in Baltimore getting as much work as Spears got in Tennessee last season. Nothing stopping Henry from being a top-3 RB in my opinion. Very happy to get him in round 2.

Lamar?

He could easily surpass the amount of carries Spears and TEN QBs had last year combined.

I have Henry at 270 carries.

 

[menobrown]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

About 15 a game so I’ll give him 255 for a full 17.

Was in an exact 50/50 timeshare with Spears last year. Responded with his lowest YPC since I think his second season. His workload in general has to be managed now but he was specifically brought into help Ravens get over the hump in the playoffs and not to get worn out during the season.

 

[travdogg]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

About 15 a game so I’ll give him 255 for a full 17.

Was in an exact 50/50 timeshare with Spears last year. Responded with his lowest YPC since I think his second season. His workload in general has to be managed now but he was specifically brought into help Ravens get over the hump in the playoffs and not to get worn out during the season.

I don't think either of the bolded are really fair. Sure, Henry and Spears had close to the same number of snaps, but that seemed very much a function of the Titans being behind all the time, and Spears being a better receiver. Henry played 62% in games the Titans won. No team in the NFL led more than Baltimore last season. Also, the Ravens have nobody behind Henry as good as Spears.

Why does his workload have to be managed? Only CMC had more carries last season, and Henry lead the league in carries in 2022. He hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down. His YPC dropping is almost certainly a product of the offense being awful. His stats like YAC/att and % of runs over 10 yards suggest he's still the same guy he's always been.

I get the argument about not wearing him out in the regular season, but I don't think that's how Harbaugh sees it, especially given the AFC North is the toughest division in the NFL, where 3 teams made the playoffs, and all the other teams likely got better this offseason. They'll need Henry to get there, and then even more once they are there. I'm not counting on Henry having more than 2 years left, but they could be a heavy 2 years.

 

[menobrown]

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

About 15 a game so I’ll give him 255 for a full 17.

Was in an exact 50/50 timeshare with Spears last year. Responded with his lowest YPC since I think his second season. His workload in general has to be managed now but he was specifically brought into help Ravens get over the hump in the playoffs and not to get worn out during the season.

I don't think either of the bolded are really fair. Sure, Henry and Spears had close to the same number of snaps, but that seemed very much a function of the Titans being behind all the time, and Spears being a better receiver. Henry played 62% in games the Titans won. No team in the NFL led more than Baltimore last season. Also, the Ravens have nobody behind Henry as good as Spears.

Why does his workload have to be managed? Only CMC had more carries last season, and Henry lead the league in carries in 2022. He hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down. His YPC dropping is almost certainly a product of the offense being awful. His stats like YAC/att and % of runs over 10 yards suggest he's still the same guy he's always been.

I get the argument about not wearing him out in the regular season, but I don't think that's how Harbaugh sees it, especially given the AFC North is the toughest division in the NFL, where 3 teams made the playoffs, and all the other teams likely got better this offseason. They'll need Henry to get there, and then even more once they are there. I'm not counting on Henry having more than 2 years left, but they could be a heavy 2 years.

How many carries do we think Henry gets this year?

About 15 a game so I’ll give him 255 for a full 17.

Was in an exact 50/50 timeshare with Spears last year. Responded with his lowest YPC since I think his second season. His workload in general has to be managed now but he was specifically brought into help Ravens get over the hump in the playoffs and not to get worn out during the season.

I don't think either of the bolded are really fair. Sure, Henry and Spears had close to the same number of snaps, but that seemed very much a function of the Titans being behind all the time, and Spears being a better receiver. Henry played 62% in games the Titans won. No team in the NFL led more than Baltimore last season. Also, the Ravens have nobody behind Henry as good as Spears.

Why does his workload have to be managed? Only CMC had more carries last season, and Henry lead the league in carries in 2022. He hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down. His YPC dropping is almost certainly a product of the offense being awful. His stats like YAC/att and % of runs over 10 yards suggest he's still the same guy he's always been.

I get the argument about not wearing him out in the regular season, but I don't think that's how Harbaugh sees it, especially given the AFC North is the toughest division in the NFL, where 3 teams made the playoffs, and all the other teams likely got better this offseason. They'll need Henry to get there, and then even more once they are there. I'm not counting on Henry having more than 2 years left, but they could be a heavy 2 years.

Not sure what to tell you. It's not about being fair or not, it just is what it is.

He played 50% of the snaps and no I don't think it was from being being but managing him. And with less carries per game then he's had in years he was less effective.

Not sure what's so difficult to accept that a 30 year old RB needs his workload managed and is already in decline.

 

[oswizzle]

He’s gonna go off this year .. he’s a steal at his current ADP… double digit TD’s and 1500+ yards

 

[Scoresman]

He’s gonna go off this year .. he’s a steal at his current ADP… double digit TD’s and 1500+ yards

When people post crazy projections like this it makes me wonder if they remember Lamar Jackson still exists.

 

[-OZ-]

He’s gonna go off this year .. he’s a steal at his current ADP… double digit TD’s and 1500+ yards

When people post crazy projections like this it makes me wonder if they remember Lamar Jackson still exists.

Doesn’t seem crazy imo. Gus scored 13 TDs, that part seems easy. 1500 seems within reach.

 

[Scoresman]

He’s gonna go off this year .. he’s a steal at his current ADP… double digit TD’s and 1500+ yards

When people post crazy projections like this it makes me wonder if they remember Lamar Jackson still exists.

Doesn’t seem crazy imo. Gus scored 13 TDs, that part seems easy. 1500 seems within reach.

I should clarify, it's the yardage and carries I disagree with, not the double digit TDs.

The crazy amount of yards don't make sense when you look at the team as a whole. The last three years, the Ravens have had 517, 526, and 541 run plays respectively. That's pretty consistent and also already very high since the NFL average is about 460 attempts. At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year, the Ravens would have to jump to about 625 rush plays to accommodate a 1500 yard season. 1500+, even more. I dont think that's going to happen. This number of carries by a team has happened about 10 times in NFL history and the last time was in 1984.

You would have to assume Lamar is going to DRASTICALLY cut his attempts to be able to fit all this in.

I have Henry at 270 carries, and this is with Lamar's carries down 10-15%, Ravens backups a little down from last year's attempts, and this puts the Ravens at 548 carries projected.

I just dont know where all these extra carries are going to come from. It's one of the reasons why you need to look at the team as a whole when projecting players.

 

[TheWinz]

I just dont know where all these extra carries are going to come from. It's one of the reasons why you need to look at the team as a whole when projecting players.

Very true. Lamar had more carries than Spears and all 3 TEN QB's combined last year.

 

[popeye]

He’s gonna go off this year .. he’s a steal at his current ADP… double digit TD’s and 1500+ yards

When people post crazy projections like this it makes me wonder if they remember Lamar Jackson still exists.

Doesn’t seem crazy imo. Gus scored 13 TDs, that part seems easy. 1500 seems within reach.

I should clarify, it's the yardage and carries I disagree with, not the double digit TDs.

The crazy amount of yards don't make sense when you look at the team as a whole. The last three years, the Ravens have had 517, 526, and 541 run plays respectively. That's pretty consistent and also already very high since the NFL average is about 460 attempts. At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year, the Ravens would have to jump to about 625 rush plays to accommodate a 1500 yard season. 1500+, even more. I dont think that's going to happen. This number of carries by a team has happened about 10 times in NFL history and the last time was in 1984.

You would have to assume Lamar is going to DRASTICALLY cut his attempts to be able to fit all this in.

I have Henry at 270 carries, and this is with Lamar's carries down 10-15%, Ravens backups a little down from last year's attempts, and this puts the Ravens at 548 carries projected.

I just dont know where all these extra carries are going to come from. It's one of the reasons why you need to look at the team as a whole when projecting players.

It was my Understanding that there Would be no Math……..

Classic Chevy Chase Line from SNL

www.youtube.com

 

[-OZ-]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

 

[Scoresman]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

 

[Scoresman]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Also, 4.9 YPC as a team included Lamar and his 148 carries at 5.5 YPC. The running backs fared worse. Edwards was at 4.1, and Justice Hill was at 4.6. I know Henry is better than these two, but still something to consider.

 

[travdogg]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league.RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

 

[Scoresman]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league.RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

Admittedly most of his declines can be mostly attributed to TEN being bad, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some slowdown from 3 years ago.

But that’s not my main argument. We can assume he hasn’t lost a step. The main variable here is still the number of carries he can realistically get.

I have him at 4.5 YPC right now. A marked improvement from Gus Edwards 4.1 and his best in years. Still can’t get him close to 1500+ yards.

To get to 1500+ yards, he would need at least 5 YPC with 300 carries. I just don’t see where all these carries are coming from.

 

[travdogg]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league. RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

Admittedly most of his declines can be mostly attributed to TEN being bad, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some slowdown from 3 years ago.

But that’s not my main argument. We can assume he hasn’t lost a step. The main variable here is still the number of carries he can realistically get.

I have him at 4.5 YPC right now. A marked improvement from Gus Edwards 4.1 and his best in years. Still can’t get him close to 1500+ yards.

To get to 1500+ yards, he would need at least 5 YPC with 300 carries. I just don’t see where all these carries are coming from.

Well, I don't think it's unreasonable to give all of Gus Edwards, Melvin Gordon, and Keaton Mitchell's carries to Henry. 2 of those guys aren't on the roster, and Mitchell is seemingly 50-50 to even play this season. So that gets us to 271 carries. Then let's assume Henry's better efficiency leads to more sustained drives. Even if that only adds 2 carries a game, we are now up to 305. That's still giving Lamar 140+ carries and giving Justice Hill 80+ carries.

 

[-OZ-]

Also, 4.9 YPC as a team included Lamar and his 148 carries at 5.5 YPC. The running backs fared worse. Edwards was at 4.1, and Justice Hill was at 4.6. I know Henry is better than these two, but still something to consider.

While QBs can run for greater gains than RBs on average, I think Henry is closer to Lamar’s 5.5 than the Gus bus or Hill. I know that’s quite the hot take.

 

[Scoresman]

At Henry's YPC and Raven YPC averages, and considering their O line is a little worse this year,

Ravens haven’t had a back close to Henry since Ray or Jamal. Henry hasn’t had a OL this good… ever?

But 270 carries seems reasonable. Ravens averaged 4.9 ypc last year. 1300/15 seems a fair estimate.

Yeah, 1300 is his ceiling IMO. And this is banking that he gets back to close to 5 YPC which he hasn't done in over three years. Yes, I know TEN sucked, but he's also 3 years older and there are other stats to suggest a bit of a decline since then.

1500+ yards is what you should be predicting if he were in his prime and he didn't have a running QB taking 100+ carries.

What stats indicate a decline? His % of runs over 15 yards was the highest its been since 2019. His YAC/att was pretty close to his career average, and well above the NFL average. He was 9th in YAC/att and 6th in % of runs over 15 yards. Only CMC, Hall, Achane, and Warren were more efficient rushers than Henry last season.

I think its more likely Henry tops 5.0 YPC than he is to be down at 4.2 again. There is plenty of evidence that shows mobile/running QBs enhance YPC by at least .5 YPC. Most of that sample size is guys not in Henry's league. RBs can fall off fast, but Henry has shown nothing to suggest that he'll do it yet, unlike guys like Zeke and Cook who showed all telltale signs.

I think there's a solid case for Henry as RB2 behind only CMC. Not saying that's where I have him ranked, but its not hard to see that outcome.

Admittedly most of his declines can be mostly attributed to TEN being bad, but it’s hard to imagine there isn’t at least some slowdown from 3 years ago.

But that’s not my main argument. We can assume he hasn’t lost a step. The main variable here is still the number of carries he can realistically get.

I have him at 4.5 YPC right now. A marked improvement from Gus Edwards 4.1 and his best in years. Still can’t get him close to 1500+ yards.

To get to 1500+ yards, he would need at least 5 YPC with 300 carries. I just don’t see where all these carries are coming from.

Well, I don't think it's unreasonable to give all of Gus Edwards, Melvin Gordon, and Keaton Mitchell's carries to Henry. 2 of those guys aren't on the roster, and Mitchell is seemingly 50-50 to even play this season. So that gets us to 271 carries. Then let's assume Henry's better efficiency leads to more sustained drives. Even if that only adds 2 carries a game, we are now up to 305. That's still giving Lamar 140+ carries and giving Justice Hill 80+ carries.

So all of the team’s carries are going through only 3 players? Does that ever happen in reality?

Edit to add: Last year 9 players had more than one rush attempt on the Ravens. It’s not much but it all adds to the team total. And they’d have to blow through recent historic totals to get to some of the predicted stats posted here.

 

[oswizzle]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

 

[Scoresman]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

On 371 attempts with a QB who had 40 attempts.