RB Derrick Henry, BAL (6 Viewers)

[Scoresman]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

They averaged 5.2 YPC as a team in 2022. And the RB’s they’ve had haven’t exactly been superstars. There’s a real possibility that Henry blows the 4.9 YPC out of the water.
It’s hard to use his “career best” as a barometer. The Ravens and Titans have been in different universes offensively the past few years.

Then why is 5.2 a good barometer? The year before that they were at 4.8, and last year 4.9. And that was with a significantly better offensive line than what is being projected this year. Also, in 2022, Jackson ran for 6.8 YPC, propping that 5.2 up a bit.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

They averaged 5.2 YPC as a team in 2022. And the RB’s they’ve had haven’t exactly been superstars. There’s a real possibility that Henry blows the 4.9 YPC out of the water.
It’s hard to use his “career best” as a barometer. The Ravens and Titans have been in different universes offensively the past few years.

Then why is 5.2 a good barometer? The year before that they were at 4.8, and last year 4.9. And that was with a significantly better offensive line than what is being projected this year. Also, in 2022, Jackson ran for 6.8 YPC, propping that 5.2 up a bit.

Scores, sometimes you gotta think OUTSIDE the BOX
You are STUCK on what he did for the Titans last year, is that Head Coach that went to an AFCC still there? I don't want to say Titanic but a rookie QB that most thought was going to be a project, an anemic OL, you cannot compare the Ravens to the Titans right now

And what "X" factor do you use combining Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the same backfield?
275 carries, we get it, you've been heard. Good luck penciling him for 1200 yds rushing over 17 games or abut 75 yds a game, kind of a novelty act would you say?
A JAG in your humble opinion

Why are you so interested in him? Just cross him off your list like I do ARich
I can't stand ARich in '23 Redraft and now again in '24 Redraft but I say my piece and I don't keep coming back for me. I know it's not the popular view for ARich
You are duly noted

And I ain't salty, I think it's good folks are looking at it your way but many see it much different and I think you are set on your opinion.
All good, this debate will come to a head during the season

 

[Scoresman]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

They averaged 5.2 YPC as a team in 2022. And the RB’s they’ve had haven’t exactly been superstars. There’s a real possibility that Henry blows the 4.9 YPC out of the water.
It’s hard to use his “career best” as a barometer. The Ravens and Titans have been in different universes offensively the past few years.

Then why is 5.2 a good barometer? The year before that they were at 4.8, and last year 4.9. And that was with a significantly better offensive line than what is being projected this year. Also, in 2022, Jackson ran for 6.8 YPC, propping that 5.2 up a bit.

Scores, sometimes you gotta think OUTSIDE the BOX
You are STUCK on what he did for the Titans last year, is that Head Coach that went to an AFCC still there? I don't want to say Titanic but a rookie QB that most thought was going to be a project, an anemic OL, you cannot compare the Ravens to the Titans right now

And what "X" factor do you use combining Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the same backfield?
275 carries, we get it, you've been heard form. Good luck penciling him for 1200 yds rushing over 17 games or abut 75 yds a game, kind of a novelty act would you say?
A JAG in your humble opinion

Why are you so interested in him
I can't stand ARich in '23 Redraft and now again in '24 Redraft but I say my piece and I don't keep coming back for me. I know it's not the popular view for ARich
You are duly noted

And I ain't salty, I think it's good folks are looking at it your way but many see it much different and I think you are set on your opinion.
All good, this debate will come to a head during the season

"You are STUCK on what he did for the Titans last year"

I think I've made it clear I'm not. I have Henry projected at a significant increase in pretty much all areas from TEN and projected him as a major piece of the Baltimore team offense.

I really like Henry this year and will have tons of exposure to him. My only beef is that I just don't see the crazy high end numbers people are posting. They don't make sense outside of crazy improbable ceilings. They are being thrown out there without taking the rest of the offense into account.

"OL, you cannot compare the Ravens to the Titans right now"

We don't know how significant this difference will be. PFF has the Ravens projected as the 25th best offensive line. I think it's a bit of a harsh rating, but that is not good. Here's what they say.

For parts of the 2023 season, the Ravens' offensive line looked like a top-tier unit. However, the team lost three starters: Kevin Zeitler, John Simpson and Morgan Moses. And while Tyler Linderbaum is already one of the best centers in the NFL, Ronnie Stanley has not been the same since his injury in 2020. The rest of the offensive line will consist of either unproven young players or offensive linemen who flashed ability as backups but have yet to show they can repeat those outings as starters.

 

[kutta]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

They averaged 5.2 YPC as a team in 2022. And the RB’s they’ve had haven’t exactly been superstars. There’s a real possibility that Henry blows the 4.9 YPC out of the water.
It’s hard to use his “career best” as a barometer. The Ravens and Titans have been in different universes offensively the past few years.

Then why is 5.2 a good barometer? The year before that they were at 4.8, and last year 4.9. And that was with a significantly better offensive line than what is being projected this year. Also, in 2022, Jackson ran for 6.8 YPC, propping that 5.2 up a bit.

And with a bunch of JAGs at RB. Let’s not forget that important point.

 

[Ilov80s]

If people EXPECT 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs.............I'll be happy to trade him to that owner.
I mean sure, he might, but I personally do not see Henry all of a suddenly being MORE productive than he has been. lately.

He should net out to being more productive and more efficient. 10-12 TDs are easily in range. But once people go up to 1500 rushing yards, I start to wonder where all the extra carries to make this happen are going to come from.

I have Henry at 275/1,265/12. I feel like that's close to ceiling yardage, but he could easily get more TDs than that. This projection makes him my RB4.

This puts Baltimore at a team YPC of 4.9, matching last year. Pretty generous considering a potentially worse offensive line.

You keep harping on more carries but won’t entertain the possibility that maybe Henry is MUCH better than previous RBs this team has had and ends up with a much higher YPC.

I’ll agree with you that 1500 rushing yards is at the very high end, but the only path there isn’t more carries.

So at 275 carries, that's 5.5 YPC. That's an enormous jump from recent history and would be his career best.

Considering he's 30 and we don't even know how much worse Baltimore's O line will be this year, I'm not banking on that much of an efficiency jump. Is there a small outside chance it could happen, sure. But it doesn't seem reasonable to project that.

You could combine the two and go 300 carries at 5 YPC, but that many carries starts to become unlikely with Lamar there. Even without Henry, the amount of run plays they ran was so far and above the league average.

They averaged 5.2 YPC as a team in 2022. And the RB’s they’ve had haven’t exactly been superstars. There’s a real possibility that Henry blows the 4.9 YPC out of the water.
It’s hard to use his “career best” as a barometer. The Ravens and Titans have been in different universes offensively the past few years.

Then why is 5.2 a good barometer? The year before that they were at 4.8, and last year 4.9. And that was with a significantly better offensive line than what is being projected this year. Also, in 2022, Jackson ran for 6.8 YPC, propping that 5.2 up a bit.

And with a bunch of JAGs at RB. Let’s not forget that important point.

Also some of those seasons Lamar missed some time which took the steam out of the offense.

 

[TheWinz]

Why are people scoffing at 1500/10? He's done it 3 of the last 5 years, and in 2021 he already had 900/10 after half a season. He's hit double digit TD's for 6 straight years, so I have to assume it's the 1500 everyone is up in arms about, right?

 

[Scoresman]

Why are people scoffing at 1500/10? He's done it 3 of the last 5 years, and in 2021 he already had 900/10 after half a season. He's hit double digit TD's for 6 straight years, so I have to assume it's the 1500 everyone is up in arms about, right?

It's mainly been me. And I have no disagreements about double digit touchdowns.

1,500 yards, as I've said, seems very hard to get to. It's an extreme ceiling to me. Mainly due to Lamar Jackson leeching touches, and a worse OL than I think a lot are assuming. Henry's talent makes up for some of this, but this offense still goes through Lamar and there are only so many snaps.

 

[Terpman22]

Why are people scoffing at 1500/10? He's done it 3 of the last 5 years, and in 2021 he already had 900/10 after half a season. He's hit double digit TD's for 6 straight years, so I have to assume it's the 1500 everyone is up in arms about, right?

I can see on one hand people are just trying to be right predicting the exact year he shows like he is finally wearing down, that's my guess where the scoffing at the yards comes from. I can see him easily getting 1500 yards. Baltimore has been a running team like, for forever, so it would not surprise me to see the King get 1500 and the double digit TDs should be in the 13-18 range IMO. Looks like he is going to be a value in redrafts this year. Even if he falls short of 1500, I'd say 1300 is the absolute floor and the potential for a whole lot of touchdowns mitigates this risk.

 

[TheWinz]

Why are people scoffing at 1500/10? He's done it 3 of the last 5 years, and in 2021 he already had 900/10 after half a season. He's hit double digit TD's for 6 straight years, so I have to assume it's the 1500 everyone is up in arms about, right?

It's mainly been me. And I have no disagreements about double digit touchdowns.

1,500 yards, as I've said, seems very hard to get to. It's an extreme ceiling to me. Mainly due to Lamar Jackson leeching touches, and a worse OL than I think a lot are assuming. Henry's talent makes up for some of this, but this offense still goes through Lamar and there are only so many snaps.

Yeah, anyone saying double digit TD's will be a hard task for Henry is insane! But 1500 is quite a challenge, and I do agree Lamar will be the biggest hurdle. He has easily topped 100 carries every season, and 2024 will be no different.

 

[Scoresman]

I don't know if this is paywalled or not, but Jason Wood's recent piece sums up my argument well.

Derrick Henry: Are We Sure He's Still a Workhorse?

A detailed look at Derrick Henry's fantasy prospects in his first season as a Raven.

www.footballguys.com

To summarize:

- Henry is the best RB BAL has had in years.
- The offense in BAL is well suited to his playstyle.
- Henry can still produce even at 30.

Despite all this,

- The OL may not be nearly as good this year.
- It's hard to project much more than 250 carries with Lamar Jackson around.

FBG experts seem to give him a cap of 250 carries. I have him at 275 and even then can't justify 1,500 rushing yards.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

on one hand people are just trying to be right predicting the exact year he shows like he is finally wearing down

It reminds me of all the "Brady is done" posts over the years, well before he was actually done. Every position has it's outliers, and Henry seems to be a pretty good candidate to be another. Father Time may be undefeated but he's also been known to take a vacation.

 

[Faust]

Ravens' Derrick Henry says he will let 'play speak for my age'

 

[Bri]

Curtis Martin had like 1600 rushing yards at 31 years old … Henry is gonna be battery ram mode …Tennessee is meh to the last few years

If you notice the only RB of this age who had a season like that in that in about the last 15 years was Peterson's age 30 season. I don't think anyone else has hit 1,200 that was over 30 since then, for sure no one over 31 other then AP's big year since 2009.

But it was much more common in the era you referenced with Curtis. Tiki threw down a monster 1,800 yard season at Henry's age and then over 1,600 at age 31. Thomas Jones in the same era came in at over 1,400 yards at age 31.

But like I said since then it's incredibly rare with zero seasons of 1,500 for 30+ year old RB's though we do have an extra game and AP was close but that was one season really unlike any other RB of a similar age for pure rushing production.

I've been contending for years around here that RB's and WR's are aging worse then they used to though I can't exactly quantify why.

Is Henry an outlier? He seems to be in many ways so I'd say yes, but people need to understand when you are predicting 1,500 plus you are predicting something that has not been done by a RB his age in 15 years, though again AP got close enough it's like splitting hairs to me.

For me I am conceding that Henry is in fact an outlier when I predict him in the range of 255 for around 1,200. I'm basically predicting the second best rushing season for the last 15 years for a RB his age AND I'm still under consensus opinion on him a little.

When I'm setting my expectations/rankings I just feel a lot more comfortable playing the odds instead of trying to forecast something that has technically not happened in 15 years and again saying all that I'm predicting him to have what I think would amount to the second best rushing season of a RB in the last 15 years. That's as high as I'm willing to go and I'll feel good playing the odds.

His life has been exceptionally rare since highschool. Started with hall of famers hearing he was raised by an aunt or grandma and going to meet him and big brother him and...nothing has been typical

 

[Runkle]

Not only was the Titans OL historically terrible the last couple of years, but, their offense never had the game script to give Henry carries late in the game. That was where he used to put up his crazy numbers. Running hard against a tired defense in the 4th quarter when they needed him to put away games. That's what Henry was best and and the Titans couldn't give him those spots.

The Ravens have needed that for a while. They can get a lead in a game, the Titans rarely could. Those 4th quarter carries gave Henry a lot of chances to break a long one, he didn't get many of those chances the last few years any time in the second halves even. They were always playing from behind and losing on time of possession. Throwing the ball desperately trying to catch up. It's a whole different world of opportunity for him on the Ravens.

I could also see the Ravens thriving on short goal-to-goals, giving him those easy plunges for a score. How often did the Titans and their terrible OL give him realistic chances there? The Ravens are an order of magnitude better for him in that respect. Sure, Lamar might take a few himself. There could be lots of opportunity for trickery at the goal line with both of them out there. Maybe fake to Henry a few times and Lamar scores. Maybe they let Henry throw a few? Who knows, but it's gonna be fun to watch. I think they both eat. This team can score more TDs a game than the Titans could ever dream of the last few years. Plenty of chances, and for fantasy, we all know it only takes one or two a week.

And, who knows, maybe they let him catch the ball some too.

I'm a 1500 yards and 16 TD optimist, for sure. I'm not concerned with Lamar "stealing" away more than his share. I'm not concerned with load management during the season, either. Even with that, I think he gets more quality opportunity than he's had in three seasons. The only concern I have is they traded away crucial pieces of the line and it remains to be seen how good the replacements are. But that's all that gives me any pause.

 

[Tivoli]

In that rugged Ravens locker room, Henry is a good fit. He’ll wear down a lot of defenses this season.

 

[Scoresman]

Not only was the Titans OL historically terrible the last couple of years, but, their offense never had the game script to give Henry carries late in the game. That was where he used to put up his crazy numbers. Running hard against a tired defense in the 4th quarter when they needed him to put away games. That's what Henry was best and and the Titans couldn't give him those spots.

The Ravens have needed that for a while. They can get a lead in a game, the Titans rarely could. Those 4th quarter carries gave Henry a lot of chances to break a long one, he didn't get many of those chances the last few years any time in the second halves even. They were always playing from behind and losing on time of possession. Throwing the ball desperately trying to catch up. It's a whole different world of opportunity for him on the Ravens.

I could also see the Ravens thriving on short goal-to-goals, giving him those easy plunges for a score. How often did the Titans and their terrible OL give him realistic chances there? The Ravens are an order of magnitude better for him in that respect. Sure, Lamar might take a few himself. There could be lots of opportunity for trickery at the goal line with both of them out there. Maybe fake to Henry a few times and Lamar scores. Maybe they let Henry throw a few? Who knows, but it's gonna be fun to watch. I think they both eat. This team can score more TDs a game than the Titans could ever dream of the last few years. Plenty of chances, and for fantasy, we all know it only takes one or two a week.

And, who knows, maybe they let him catch the ball some too.

I'm a 1500 yards and 16 TD optimist, for sure. I'm not concerned with Lamar "stealing" away more than his share. I'm not concerned with load management during the season, either. Even with that, I think he gets more quality opportunity than he's had in three seasons. The only concern I have is they traded away crucial pieces of the line and it remains to be seen how good the replacements are. But that's all that gives me any pause.

What percentage of running back carries would you say Henry gets? In Tennessee, he was used to getting about 65% of them. If you agree that Lamar will get his, that leaves just over 400 carries for the RBs. Gus and Ingram never got more than 50%. I think it's safe to assume Henry will surpass this, but by how much? 65% of the RB carries in TEN ends up being a lot more carries because they don't have a Lamar Jackson.

Even if you give him 65 or even 67% of the carries, that's about 275 carries. He would need to hit a career high YPC to make 1500 yards. I know it's coachspeak, but Monken sure has been suggesting they will continue to use all their backs to keep Henry fresh. 67% is no guarantee.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Right now, I have him at 238/ 1070 plus 25/195 through the air for a total of 15-16 tds. In half that's RB6 for me. I also have Lamar with 140 carries which would be low for him on a carries per game basis (he's been above 9 per game for his entire career). To Scoresman's point, I checked my math and had him at a 67% RB rush share (47% of the team totals).

Also worth noting, I have Baltimore passing a little bit more. Andrews healthy (crosses fingers) plus a blossoming Flowers.

 

[satch]

Nobody’s concerned that Baltimore may go with their typical committee approach throughout the season to increase the likelihood that Henry is healthy and ready to be unleashed in the playoffs?

 

[Scoresman]

Nobody’s concerned that Baltimore may go with their typical committee approach throughout the season to increase the likelihood that Henry is healthy and ready to be unleashed in the playoffs?

That's really the least of my concerns. 30 year old Henry is better than peak Ingram or Gus. If they keep Henry at 50% RB carries like they did with the other two, that's 200 carries. Henry can handle more than that and still be good for the playoffs, IMO. I see him getting at least 60% RB carries.

 

[rzrback77]

Nobody’s concerned that Baltimore may go with their typical committee approach throughout the season to increase the likelihood that Henry is healthy and ready to be unleashed in the playoffs?

Wait, I thought that the Ravens plan was to abandon the running game in the playoffs. Maybe that was why they got Henry for this year.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Current ADP in half ppr has him as #10 RB and #25 overall. About what would that equal in terms of yards and TDs?

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

This dude went for 2k a few years back and was on pace for 2k the following season before getting hurt late.

Titans have sucked donkey **** the last 2 years when his numbers dropped.

Some scrub for the Ravens banged in 13 rushing TDs last season.

CMC went from God Mode to broke down ***** for 2 straight seasons back to God Mode after going to a winning team.

I will gladly pay $40 for Henry this season and expect close to MoP's projections of 1800 and 18. (2000 + 20 would not surprise me)

 

[Scoresman]

Current ADP in half ppr has him as #10 RB and #25 overall. About what would that equal in terms of yards and TDs?

Kyren is my current RB10 in PPR and he's at 230/1058/10 rushing.

This is right around where most experts have Henry ranked/projected. All 4 FBGs have him projected similarly. I have him projected higher at PPR RB5, but still nowhere near the lofty stuff being posted here.

Now, we're up to 2,000 possible yards?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Current ADP in half ppr has him as #10 RB and #25 overall. About what would that equal in terms of yards and TDs?

Kyren is my current RB10 in PPR and he's at 230/1058/10 rushing.

This is right around where most experts have Henry ranked/projected. All 4 FBGs have him projected similarly. I have him projected higher at PPR RB5, but still nowhere near the lofty stuff being posted here.

Now, we're up to 2,000 possible yards?

Yeah, if he hits even 14/1400 he would still be an excellent value for that slot.

 

[nittanylion]

I don't think I'm on an island with this opinion, but I'm not hearing much of it in this Thread, so...

I do not agree that 'Lamar will get his' in 2024.
IMHO, Lamar is going to run *noticeably* less this upcoming Season.
That's how these tea leaves read to me:

*Dropping weight in a team-driven, concerted and structured manner, because he won't be absorbing as much punishment, due to running less.
*Adding a unicorn at RB, who is a match made in heaven for this power run-based offense.
*Drafting Devontez Walker, who gives them another unique pass-catching talent...
*... to go along with a healthy Andrews, a 2nd-Year Flowers, a healthy and extended Bateman, two Swiss Army Knives in Likely and Malik Cunningham, savvy veteran Agolor and receiving specialist Justice Hill - that's about as diverse and well-rounded a crew of pass-catchers you'll find on any NFL Team, giving Monken a variety of weapons to deploy in Year 2 of installing the Offense he brought from Georgia, whose new wrinkles will include employing a lot more '12' personnel packages than the Ravens did last year, and more than the League average.

There's where your uptick in carries for Henry comes from - directly from Jackson's share, which will be noticeably reduced.

JMHO, right now, but I expect to see it born out in training camp and into the regular Season.

Floor: 1360 rushing yards/12 TD. *Floor* ... plus rudimentary usage in the passing game (20-some receptions), including a red zone-dump off TD reception or 2, and at least one Passing TD.

 

[Scoresman]

I don't think I'm on an island with this opinion, but I'm not hearing much of it in this Thread, so...

I do not agree that 'Lamar will get his' in 2024.
IMHO, Lamar is going to run *noticeably* less this upcoming Season.
That's how these tea leaves read to me:

*Dropping weight in a team-driven, concerted and structured manner, because he won't be absorbing as much punishment, due to running less.
*Adding a unicorn at RB, who is a match made in heaven for this power run-based offense.
*Drafting Devontez Walker, who gives them another unique pass-catching talent...
*... to go along with a healthy Andrews, a 2nd-Year Flowers, a healthy and extended Bateman, two Swiss Army Knives in Likely and Malik Cunningham, savvy veteran Agolor and receiving specialist Justice Hill - that's about as diverse and well-rounded a crew of pass-catchers you'll find on any NFL Team, giving Monken a variety of weapons to deploy in Year 2 of installing the Offense he brought from Georgia, whose new wrinkles will include employing a lot more '12' personnel packages than the Ravens did last year, and more than the League average.

There's where your uptick in carries for Henry comes from - directly from Jackson's share, which will be noticeably reduced.

JMHO, right now, but I expect to see it born out in training camp and into the regular Season.

Floor: 1360 rushing yards/12 TD. *Floor* ... plus rudimentary usage in the passing game (20-some receptions), including a red zone-dump off TD reception or 2, and at least one Passing TD.

good post. How many carries do you think Lamar ends up with? This is pretty contrary to what's being projected out there and we've all heard a million times that teams plan to run QBs less and it never really happens.

Also, there are planned runs and unplanned runs. The coaches can control the scripted runs, but in those times where Flowers and whoever can't get open, Lamar is gonna Lamar.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I don't think I'm on an island with this opinion, but I'm not hearing much of it in this Thread, so...

I do not agree that 'Lamar will get his' in 2024.
IMHO, Lamar is going to run *noticeably* less this upcoming Season.
That's how these tea leaves read to me:

*Dropping weight in a team-driven, concerted and structured manner, because he won't be absorbing as much punishment, due to running less.
*Adding a unicorn at RB, who is a match made in heaven for this power run-based offense.
*Drafting Devontez Walker, who gives them another unique pass-catching talent...
*... to go along with a healthy Andrews, a 2nd-Year Flowers, a healthy and extended Bateman, two Swiss Army Knives in Likely and Malik Cunningham, savvy veteran Agolor and receiving specialist Justice Hill - that's about as diverse and well-rounded a crew of pass-catchers you'll find on any NFL Team, giving Monken a variety of weapons to deploy in Year 2 of installing the Offense he brought from Georgia, whose new wrinkles will include employing a lot more '12' personnel packages than the Ravens did last year, and more than the League average.

There's where your uptick in carries for Henry comes from - directly from Jackson's share, which will be noticeably reduced.

JMHO, right now, but I expect to see it born out in training camp and into the regular Season.

Floor: 1360 rushing yards/12 TD. *Floor* ... plus rudimentary usage in the passing game (20-some receptions), including a red zone-dump off TD reception or 2, and at least one Passing TD.

Nice post NL

 

[Scoresman]

The more I think on it, the more I disagree that Lamar is going to take a huge cut in carries.

Baltimore’s offense is good. It’s been good. It’s proven good. Why would they need to change things up that much?

As much as Lamar makes it a nightmare for defenses to handle Henry, so does Henry’s presence make it a nightmare for defenses to handle Lamar.

I think to Occam’s Razor. Why would the Ravens need to drastically change their offense like that? Henry will fit in just fine keeping things relatively the same.

Sure, there will be a slight reduction to Lamar’s carries which is normal given Henry’s talent. But purposely neutering Lamar from doing what he does best just to run Henry into the ground in the regular season makes no sense for the Ravens to do as a team that wants to keep players fresh for the playoffs.

 

[Tau837]

The more I think on it, the more I disagree that Lamar is going to take a huge cut in carries.

I agree, as I posted earlier in the thread, this is how the QB carries broke down in 2023 (per PFF, including postseason):

• Scrambles: 79
  • Jackson 72
  • Huntley 7
• Designed running plays: 103
  • Jackson 95
  • Huntley 8

So, as it was, 43% of Jackson's rushing attempts were actually called passing plays in which he scrambled. He only had rush attempts on designed running plays 95 times in 18 games, which is just 5.3 attempts per game. Not much to give up there.

Could he scramble less? I suppose, but that wouldn't help Henry unless it's because the offense calls fewer dropbacks in favor of more carries for Henry. I'm pretty skeptical about that.

 

[Tau837]

including a red zone-dump off TD reception or 2

I doubt it. Henry has 90 rushing TDs in his career, but just 3 receiving TDs, and the last one was in 2019. Jackson threw 2 TDs last season to RBs, with 1 going to FB Ricard and 1 to passing game RB Hill.

It seems like not a big deal, but counting on 2 receiving TDs is a decent boost to a fantasy projection, and it seems unlikely.

 

[nittanylion]

good post. How many carries do you think Lamar ends up with? This is pretty contrary to what's being projected out there and we've all heard a million times that teams plan to run QBs less and it never really happens.

Also, there are planned runs and unplanned runs. The coaches can control the scripted runs, but in those times where Flowers and whoever can't get open, Lamar is gonna Lamar.

IMHO, in the neighborhood of 110 combined designed running plays and scrambles.

From a practical, NFL reality-based approach, it's pretty simple, at least in relation to what the tea leaves are telling me...

...and I fully acknowledge I may be wrong about any and all of this!!!

Evolution of Lamar Jackson as an NFL QB, from learning the position, to a legitimate seasoned field general, who is improving as a passer, and must continue to do so, to execute the full Monken playbook.

Second year of the Monken offense installation, where more will be demanded/expected of Lamar to execute a larger portion of the passing game as designed/intended.

As much as running is a facet of Lamar's game, from an NFL Coaching standpoint, it's a facet, that is optimal when managed (a time and place for everything), both in terms of continuity of an offensive scheme, as well as keeping the Quarterback in one piece, on the field and under center, executing the offense, for an entire Regular/Post Season.

The longer he plays, and the more punishment he takes, the more likely it is that a given QB is going to get hurt and be out for a portion of time. The Ravens aren't getting anywhere near their reasonable Season-goal of a Championship window, with him sidelined. It is not in the Team's best interest, especially now that they have a back like Henry, to subject Lamar to unnecessary peril. Part of the reason they acquired Henry was specifically to lighten Lamar's intentional running load.

Henry (and an interesting stable behind him - Hill, Michell, Ali) gives them the ability to run the ball just as often, effectively and efficiently as they always have, without Lamar being as much a factor in it, as he's been in previous seasons.

'Doing what he does best' for Lamar, by necessity, needs to evolve, for the good of both Lamar and the Ravens aspirations, into doing more in the passing game, and less with his feet.

...and this isn't just 'Flowers and whoever' - between solid front-line starters Justice Hill, Andrews/Likely, Flowers, Bateman, Agholor, Dez Walker and a useful bench (Charlie Kolar, Tylan Wallace, Malik Cunningham, Keith Kirkwood, Deonte Hardy), that's as good a group of pass-catchers and Swiss Army-types, as any. Even Henry drew about 40 targets each of his last 2 Seasons. Monken and Lamar have plethora of weapons to utilize in the passing game. Part of why they've assembled this cadre of pass-catchers is specifically to lighten Lamar's unintentional running load, by providing him with plenty of targets that can get, and will be, open, at all levels of the field.

I think we're going to see emphasized more than ever before in this upcoming training camp: plenty of emphasis being placed on Lamar being coached to throw the ball away when there's nothing availble, rather than making plays with his legs.

These next couple seasons are 'The Henry Window', for the Ravens. Lamar will be around long after Henry's shelf-life has expired. Henry was the missing piece specifically acquired to punch them through their only real obstacle -the Chiefs - while Reid/Mahomes are still well within their own Championship window, to win a Title of their own.
A major reason why he's there, is to still run the ball as usual, while developing Lamar as a passer capable of giving the offense a legitimate 1-2 punch that's a nightmare to defend.

...as least, that's what I think.

 

[FarFromHome]

These running QBs are tricky. They become great because they run. Then as they become great they are told to run less to avoid hits. Lamar needs to run. He has proven to be a solid passer but he ain't gonna ever be Mahomes. Lamar needs to run. 8 times a game for 136 on the season seems reasonable. I think Henry about to get fed as much as his massive body can handle. Big season for him. Imo

 

[Scoresman]

good post. How many carries do you think Lamar ends up with? This is pretty contrary to what's being projected out there and we've all heard a million times that teams plan to run QBs less and it never really happens.

Also, there are planned runs and unplanned runs. The coaches can control the scripted runs, but in those times where Flowers and whoever can't get open, Lamar is gonna Lamar.

IMHO, in the neighborhood of 110 combined designed running plays and scrambles.

From a practical, NFL reality-based approach, it's pretty simple, at least in relation to what the tea leaves are telling me...

...and I fully acknowledge I may be wrong about any and all of this!!!

Evolution of Lamar Jackson as an NFL QB, from learning the position, to a legitimate seasoned field general, who is improving as a passer, and must continue to do so, to execute the full Monken playbook.

Second year of the Monken offense installation, where more will be demanded/expected of Lamar to execute a larger portion of the passing game as designed/intended.

As much as running is a facet of Lamar's game, from an NFL Coaching standpoint, it's a facet, that is optimal when managed (a time and place for everything), both in terms of continuity of an offensive scheme, as well as keeping the Quarterback in one piece, on the field and under center, executing the offense, for an entire Regular/Post Season.

The longer he plays, and the more punishment he takes, the more likely it is that a given QB is going to get hurt and be out for a portion of time. The Ravens aren't getting anywhere near their reasonable Season-goal of a Championship window, with him sidelined. It is not in the Team's best interest, especially now that they have a back like Henry, to subject Lamar to unnecessary peril. Part of the reason they acquired Henry was specifically to lighten Lamar's intentional running load.

Henry (and an interesting stable behind him - Hill, Michell, Ali) gives them the ability to run the ball just as often, effectively and efficiently as they always have, without Lamar being as much a factor in it, as he's been in previous seasons.

'Doing what he does best' for Lamar, by necessity, needs to evolve, for the good of both Lamar and the Ravens aspirations, into doing more in the passing game, and less with his feet.

...and this isn't just 'Flowers and whoever' - between solid front-line starters Justice Hill, Andrews/Likely, Flowers, Bateman, Agholor, Dez Walker and a useful bench (Charlie Kolar, Tylan Wallace, Malik Cunningham, Keith Kirkwood, Deonte Hardy), that's as good a group of pass-catchers and Swiss Army-types, as any. Even Henry drew about 40 targets each of his last 2 Seasons. Monken and Lamar have plethora of weapons to utilize in the passing game. Part of why they've assembled this cadre of pass-catchers is specifically to lighten Lamar's unintentional running load, by providing him with plenty of targets that can get, and will be, open, at all levels of the field.

I think we're going to see emphasized more than ever before in this upcoming training camp: plenty of emphasis being placed on Lamar being coached to throw the ball away when there's nothing availble, rather than making plays with his legs.

These next couple seasons are 'The Henry Window', for the Ravens. Lamar will be around long after Henry's shelf-life has expired. Henry was the missing piece specifically acquired to punch them through their only real obstacle -the Chiefs - while Reid/Mahomes are still well within their own Championship window, to win a Title of their own.
A major reason why he's there, is to still run the ball as usual, while developing Lamar as a passer capable of giving the offense a legitimate 1-2 punch that's a nightmare to defend.

...as least, that's what I think.

That's not as drastic a reduction as I thought you meant. I have him at 130. Whish is a 12% reduction to allow for more scripted Henry runs.

Most people have Henry at 225-250 carries with Lamar's reduced a bit. Further reducing Lamar down to 110, IMO still isn't enough for Henry to reach these lofty rushing yard totals outside of an extreme ceiling situation. It also makes no sense for them to run Henry into the ground in the regular season if their goal is to beat KC in the playoffs. Henry fits into this offense extremely well without having to make drastic changes to their gameplan.

Coaches of running QBs have been saying for years that their QBs need to run less. It never really happens at a drastic level. When scripted plays don't materialize, they are gonna do what they do best, and that's take off running.

 

[Cobbler1]

All of this is speculation but I recall a lot of buzz about Lamar’s weight gain the past couple years being about holding up better in the pocket as he eyed his big contract. And he was noticeably slower as a runner because of it. I think the weight loss is actually an indication that he wants to be more spry as a runner again like his first 2-3 years. I don’t know if that necessarily means more carries but I don’t think it’s a sure sign that he intends to run it less. If he’s back to his elite burst and speed though and Henry has juice left that’s a scary proposition for a defense and they should both thrive because of it.

 

[Bri]

Lot of quotes from Ravens players about Henry. If you pause, you realize his new teammates are saying what fans usually do. All the gushing.

In TEN, there's we're gonna miss you stuff being posted at businesses.

Mike Keith, Titans adored announcer, told a story and struggled w comparing Henry to a superhero and how he's uncomfortable with that word but there's nothing else like it. It was touching.

This stuff is going to be saved and screenshot-ed and it's going to be used for RB market value/value to a new team.

I love every bit of it and think he's worked as hard as anyone to earn all that.

 

[FarFromHome]

Lot of quotes from Ravens players about Henry. If you pause, you realize his new teammates are saying what fans usually do. All the gushing.

In TEN, there's we're gonna miss you stuff being posted at businesses.

Mike Keith, Titans adored announcer, told a story and struggled w comparing Henry to a superhero and how he's uncomfortable with that word but there's nothing else like it. It was touching.

This stuff is going to be saved and screenshot-ed and it's going to be used for RB market value/value to a new team.

I love every bit of it and think he's worked as hard as anyone to earn all that.

Yep. He was the Titans business really. 70% of fans jerseys at games were Henry jerseys. His face was everywhere. Dude is and always will be a legend to fanbase. Unfortunate Ravens don't play in Nashville this year. He would have gotten a massive standing ovation and cheered everytime he touched the ball.

 

[kutta]

Matthew Berry does a good job summing up what some of us have been saying and putting it all in one place.

Matthew Berry's 100 Facts You Need To Know Before You Draft in 2024

Matthew Berry releases his 100 Facts You Need To Know Before You Draft in 2024, but what you do with them, is up to you.

www.nbcsports.com

35. Last season among RBs, only Christian McCaffrey had more games with at least 18 fantasy points than … Derrick Henry.

36. In his last 72 games, Derrick Henry has 68 rushing touchdowns.

37. The last season that Henry did NOT have at least 1,000 total yards AND 10 rushing touchdowns was 2017.

38. The last two seasons, the Titans have ranked bottom three in the NFL in yards per carry BEFORE contact.

39. This offseason, Derrick Henry joined the Baltimore Ravens.

40. Over the last two seasons, the Ravens led the NFL in yards per carry BEFORE contact.

41. Since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB in Baltimore in 2019, Ravens RBs are averaging an NFL high 4.8 yards per carry.

42. Last season, Ravens running backs Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and Melvin Gordon combined for 20 rushing touchdowns and 1,696 rushing yards.

43. If those Ravens running backs were one player, that RB would have scored 289.6 fantasy points on rushing alone.

43A. Last season, 289.6 points would be the second-best RB in standard and .5 PPR scoring, and a half point out of second in full PPR.

43B. Derrick Henry is going as RB8 on ESPN and RB10 on Sleeper.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I don't think Henry is going to be "all of those in one player." Harbaugh has said he wants to give lots of touches to Justice Hill, and they need to make sure that Henry is healthy for the playoffs.

I can't see him being run into the ground. He should do very well, but I think RB 8-10 is about right.

 

[kutta]

I don't think Henry is going to be "all of those in one player." Harbaugh has said he wants to give lots of touches to Justice Hill, and they need to make sure that Henry is healthy for the playoffs.

I can't see him being run into the ground. He should do very well, but I think RB 8-10 is about right.

I agree, with the caveat that his upside is potentially massive if he goes nuts on the TD front.

 

[travdogg]

I really don't get why there is so much optimism on Barkley, but not as much on Henry. Henry is a better talent, on a more RB friendly offense, with a QB who doesn't take all the rushing scores.

I don't buy the idea of Henry being saved for the playoffs at all. The AFC North is the toughest division in football, and other every team got better this offseason. I can argue Henry as high as RB4. Maybe even RB2 in non-PPR. I think he's the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing TDs.

 

[Ray_T]

I really don't get why there is so much optimism on Barkley, but not as much on Henry. Henry is a better talent, on a more RB friendly offense, with a QB who doesn't take all the rushing scores.

I don't buy the idea of Henry being saved for the playoffs at all. The AFC North is the toughest division in football, and other every team got better this offseason. I can argue Henry as high as RB4. Maybe even RB2 in non-PPR. I think he's the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing TDs.

I think the reason people are concerned about him is his age. I saw him play late last year and feel hes fine but this is likely the last hurrah for him. I do agree, he has a good shot at leading the league in rush TD's for a RB and that gives him considerable upside. all he needs to pair that up is 1000 all purpose yards and hes pretty much guaranteed to provide fair value.

I like him a lot. but I also like Barkley. I think he suits the system the Eagles have and Im pretty sure he puts up some real nice numbers in that offense. This might be the first good offense he's been a part of. I see a lot of good things going for him here.

in the end I like both players, though I think Henry is the better buy at his ADP which is later in the draft.

 

[Faust]

Derrick Henry on Ravens offense: 'I'm right at home'

 

[jm192]

I do believe they want to limit his work to keep him healthy for the playoffs. They've shown they can give the ball to JAGS and get production. Why take your 30.5 year old top back and run him into the ground? The Ravens don't have a "We can't make the playoffs because of our RB room" problem. They'll be there regardless of who the RB carrying the ball is.

He turned 30 in January. He'll be an old 30, nearly 31 come the fantasy playoffs. He's built differently, and he's held on this long. He's probably fine this year. Buttt....There is SOME concern about the age. At his price tag, I'd rather take my chances on a younger guy going around him or even a receiver--and then waiting on RB.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Henry is going to lead the league in TDs this year imo.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

Henry is going to lead the league in TDs this year imo.

More likely he gets hurt than doesn't produce in the role he is expected to fill. Talent is not the question.

 

[Loris]

I drafted Henry in redraft.. My question is who should I handcuff him with? No other BAL RB went off the board.

Since covid hit, our league added 2 more roster spots instead of IR slots so our league can pick up 2 FA players starting the Tues before the season.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I drafted Henry in redraft.. My question is who should I handcuff him with? No other BAL RB went off the board.

Since covid hit, our league added 2 more roster spots instead of IR slots so our league can pick up 2 FA players starting the Tues before the season.

Justice Hill. Harbaugh has been praising him and saying he will have a role in the offense.

 

[Chardo1]

Henry is going to lead the league in TDs this year imo.

More likely he gets hurt than doesn't produce in the role he is expected to fill. Talent is not the question.

Henry has played 8 seasons. He had one extended injury 3 years ago, and missed two other games in his career. He is arguably the most durable RB in the league.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

Henry is going to lead the league in TDs this year imo.

More likely he gets hurt than doesn't produce in the role he is expected to fill. Talent is not the question.

Henry has played 8 seasons. He had one extended injury 3 years ago, and missed two other games in his career. He is arguably the most durable RB in the league.

Makes sense on paper, I drove my Toyota Corolla for 17 years previously, the brand is one of the most durable on the market. The trend would suggest that I should expect it to make another year around the sun since it's already done so 17 times, but I also know that old cars break down and would only have myself to blame if something happened.


There's nothing wrong with showing caution regarding things that are normally reliable when they start getting near the end of their shelf life, imo.

 

[Chardo1]

Henry is going to lead the league in TDs this year imo.

More likely he gets hurt than doesn't produce in the role he is expected to fill. Talent is not the question.

Henry has played 8 seasons. He had one extended injury 3 years ago, and missed two other games in his career. He is arguably the most durable RB in the league.

Makes sense on paper, I drove my Toyota Corolla for 17 years previously, the brand is one of the most durable on the market. The trend would suggest that I should expect it to make another year around the sun since it's already done so 17 times, but I also know that old cars break down and would only have myself to blame if something happened.


There's nothing wrong with showing caution regarding things that are normally reliable when they start getting near the end of their shelf life, imo.

Fair enough, but this is not year 17 for this Toyota. I would venture that a historically durable RB, who has shown no sign of decline, has at least one year of life remaining. If you look at the history of 30 year old RBs (which he just hit), the successful ones were those who were generally durable before 30. In Henry's case, you're getting a discount because of the perceived risk. If he wasn't 30, he would be the second RB off the board. A featured non-committee RB on a top rushing offense. A historically great GL runner on a team consistently near the top in GL plays. That's gold.