RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)

[Uruk-Hai]

The Ravens have a ton of contract restructuring to do. This is the first domino. Jackson carries a $75mm cap hit next year. All of their rostered TEs are on their final contract years. Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum are up for extensions. I think Marlon Humphrey's contract has a year or two left and will need to be revised as he's carrying a big cap hit.

Anyway, in regards to Henry....... I'd ride him until he proves he can't do it anymore. Baltimore's the perfect offense for him.

 

[need2know]

dudes a machine. he has more years left in him

 

[Ministry of Pain]

dudes a machine. he has more years left in him

325/1920/16 TDs, 2,100+ total yds

Anyone notice his yds per carry went from a little over 4 to almost 6 yds a clip?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

dudes a machine. he has more years left in him

325/1920/16 TDs, 2,100+ total yds

Anyone notice his yds per carry went from a little over 4 to almost 6 yds a clip?

Baltimore's OG positions are in a bit of flux going into 2025 with losing Mekari (who was excellent and hurt to lose; glad he got paid, though). OTs & C are set, barring injury. I don't know if Henry can do 5.9 ypc again, but who the hell knows with that guy? He's apparently got body science down to a....well...science.

 

[TheWinz]

Derrick Henry Promised a Role in Adam Sandler Movie If He Rushes for 2,000 Yards

Fun story...

 

[Bri]

2000 it is

https://x.com/Schultz_Report/status/1930299514897760498

 

[Faust]

Derrick Henry aiming for 2K rushing yards, Adam Sandler movie role

 

[Faust]

Adam Sandler to cast Ravens' Derrick Henry if he runs for 2K yards

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Derrick Henry is the best available RB at #5 on my board for a redraft league. There is a discount for offering a multi-year deal with the bid. I’m pondering his possible productivity in 2026. FBG is projecting 1675 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs. He’s signed through 2027 with an $30m deal. Anyone have any thoughts on his productivity in 2026?

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Anyone have any thoughts on his productivity in 2026?

Till he's finished, assume he isn't finished.

 

[Helaire-ious]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

 

[joey]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

has to be worth a 1st to a contender, right?

 

[Helaire-ious]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

has to be worth a 1st to a contender, right?

One would think, but I never got an offer close lol

 

[travdogg]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

How much of a rebuild could it have been with CMC and Henry?

You should be able to get a comparable deal for Henry, especially in non-PPR.

 

[Helaire-ious]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

How much of a rebuild could it have been with CMC and Henry?

You should be able to get a comparable deal for Henry, especially in non-PPR.

Would be tough to do keeping both CMC & Henry. Still no takers in Henry. Only 1 guy was interested and he kept trying to guve me Kittle, Najee & Addison for Henry & Pickens.

Hard pass. I sold Pickens for Mcbride.

 

[King of the Jungle]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

How much of a rebuild could it have been with CMC and Henry?

You should be able to get a comparable deal for Henry, especially in non-PPR.

Would be tough to do keeping both CMC & Henry. Still no takers in Henry. Only 1 guy was interested and he kept trying to guve me Kittle, Najee & Addison for Henry & Pickens.

Hard pass. I sold Pickens for Mcbride.

Getting McBride for Pickens is gold.

 

[Ray_T]

Disappointing. Ended the regular season with no passing TDs. Can he no longer make these plays or are they just saving him for the playoffs? /s

Besides the precipitous fall in throwing attempts, his other stats were pretty good:

325 carries / 1921 yards / 16 TDs
19 receptions / 193 yards / 2 TDs

Put himself into the Hall of Fame IMO

He's the best RB of the last 20 years in my opinion, and arguably still the best right now.

Typical RB rules of longevity don’t apply to this guy.

longevity rules apply to everyone eventually.

with RB its usually a career ending injury partway through the season. occasionally its slowdown due to an accumulation of injuries.

in Henry's case hes been remarkably durable so it wont be an accumulation of injuries.

hes likely slower than he was. but speed has never really been his game. He's a power runner whose superpower has always been that hes really tough to tackle. he breaks tackles quite easily compared to most.

as long as the line in front of him opens holes, he will continue to put up decent yardage. I dont see a repeat of last years numbers. that's asking a lot for a guy on the wrong side of the age of 30. but I can see him still being a top 10 RB (assuming good health)

 

[Ilov80s]

Disappointing. Ended the regular season with no passing TDs. Can he no longer make these plays or are they just saving him for the playoffs? /s

Besides the precipitous fall in throwing attempts, his other stats were pretty good:

325 carries / 1921 yards / 16 TDs
19 receptions / 193 yards / 2 TDs

Put himself into the Hall of Fame IMO

He's the best RB of the last 20 years in my opinion, and arguably still the best right now.

Typical RB rules of longevity don’t apply to this guy.

longevity rules apply to everyone eventually.

with RB its usually a career ending injury partway through the season. occasionally its slowdown due to an accumulation of injuries.

in Henry's case hes been remarkably durable so it wont be an accumulation of injuries.

hes likely slower than he was. but speed has never really been his game. He's a power runner whose superpower has always been that hes really tough to tackle. he breaks tackles quite easily compared to most.

as long as the line in front of him opens holes, he will continue to put up decent yardage. I dont see a repeat of last years numbers. that's asking a lot for a guy on the wrong side of the age of 30. but I can see him still being a top 10 RB (assuming good health)

His game is a little bit speed though. When he gets into the open field, he can fly. He hit 21.2 mph last year. That is the 8th fastest speed recorded since the NFL began tracking 8 years ago. Only Tyreek has moe plays over 20 mph in the NFL.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Disappointing. Ended the regular season with no passing TDs. Can he no longer make these plays or are they just saving him for the playoffs? /s

Besides the precipitous fall in throwing attempts, his other stats were pretty good:

325 carries / 1921 yards / 16 TDs
19 receptions / 193 yards / 2 TDs

Put himself into the Hall of Fame IMO

He's the best RB of the last 20 years in my opinion, and arguably still the best right now.

Typical RB rules of longevity don’t apply to this guy.

longevity rules apply to everyone eventually.

with RB its usually a career ending injury partway through the season. occasionally its slowdown due to an accumulation of injuries.

in Henry's case hes been remarkably durable so it wont be an accumulation of injuries.

hes likely slower than he was. but speed has never really been his game. He's a power runner whose superpower has always been that hes really tough to tackle. he breaks tackles quite easily compared to most.

as long as the line in front of him opens holes, he will continue to put up decent yardage. I dont see a repeat of last years numbers. that's asking a lot for a guy on the wrong side of the age of 30. but I can see him still being a top 10 RB (assuming good health)

His game is a little bit speed though. When he gets into the open field, he can fly. He hit 21.2 mph last year. That is the 8th fastest speed recorded since the NFL began tracking 8 years ago. Only Tyreek has moe plays over 20 mph in the NFL.

Henry had 3 or 4 (can't recall) plays where he went over 20 mph last year according to one of the broadcasts late in the season. I wouldn't worry about his speed sans injury.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Maybe the differentiation between speed and quickness is useful here.

You can certainly, in an instant, lose a bit of that quickness with a serious injury, the stop start, the lateral movement. Not a huge part of his game though.

His top end straight line speed will have already declined somewhat, hard to imagine he loses it abruptly regardless of what injury comes his way.

 

[pinkstapler]

What's his value in non-ppr dynasty these days? I'm in rebuild mode on a team I just took over. Already sold CMC for the 1.05 (Took Kaleb) and Zay Flowers

has to be worth a 1st to a contender, right?

One would think, but I never got an offer close lol

It's going to be very league/situation dependent IMO. He basically has 0 value to a non-contender. So yeah, you need an obvious championship contender, probably someone who was within a game or two last year. But you also need them to be weak at RB. Most leagues are start two, so if they have two there isn't a huge incentive to grab Henry.

Also most people also over value their own rosters until smacked in the face with contradicting information. So here in August, even a contender with a weaker RB stable is going to be wearing rose tinted glasses thinking their unsigned RB will sign, their aging vet will return to former glory, their newly drafted rookie RB will soar up the depth chart and take over the backfield, etc. Until they know for a fact that isn't happening, they aren't giving up a 1st round pick for a guy who is year for year and realistically already defeating the odds by being a statistical outlier. Henry is a hot potato and no one wants to be the guy holding it when the music stops unless they are sure they need him and that he will make a difference to their roster; especially for a 1st round pick even if it is late.

He's an in-season trade candidate when situations are clearer and more defined for your leagues.

 

[barackdhouse]

In 1983, Walter Payton entered his 9th season in the NFL at age 29.

1983 - 16 GMs 314/1421/6 & 53/607/2 (20.0 PPR FF points per game)
1984 - 16 GMs 384/1684/11 & 45/368 at age 30 (20.4)
1985 - 16 GMs 324/1551/9 & 49/483/2 at age 31 (20.5)
1986 - 16 GMs 321/1333/8 & 37/382/3 at age 32 (17.2)

6 pass TDs during that span as well

Payton was listed at 5'10" 200lbs

Longevity has as much to do with talent as it does with physical health. Borderline JAGs or even solid RBs aren't going to have enough talent to convince coaches/GMs they can get past the 28 year old wall (I am pretty sure 28 is still considered the statistical cliff).

Elite HOF RBs on the other hand... they're going to keep getting chances. Not only is Henry one of the most talented RBs ever, he is one of the very best athletes at the position ever. But yes the end must come at some point. FWIW and obviously not apples to apples here but going into his age 31 season in 1985 Walter had 3423 career touches. Going into this season right now, Henry has 2529.

TLDR anything is possible. The cliff will come and nobody should be surprised when it does. But nobody should be surprised if he crushes souls for another couple years.

 

[Instinctive]

My initial pass projection for him is 309/1499/14 with 16/177/0 receiving

 

[Ray_T]

Disappointing. Ended the regular season with no passing TDs. Can he no longer make these plays or are they just saving him for the playoffs? /s

Besides the precipitous fall in throwing attempts, his other stats were pretty good:

325 carries / 1921 yards / 16 TDs
19 receptions / 193 yards / 2 TDs

Put himself into the Hall of Fame IMO

He's the best RB of the last 20 years in my opinion, and arguably still the best right now.

Typical RB rules of longevity don’t apply to this guy.

longevity rules apply to everyone eventually.

with RB its usually a career ending injury partway through the season. occasionally its slowdown due to an accumulation of injuries.

in Henry's case hes been remarkably durable so it wont be an accumulation of injuries.

hes likely slower than he was. but speed has never really been his game. He's a power runner whose superpower has always been that hes really tough to tackle. he breaks tackles quite easily compared to most.

as long as the line in front of him opens holes, he will continue to put up decent yardage. I dont see a repeat of last years numbers. that's asking a lot for a guy on the wrong side of the age of 30. but I can see him still being a top 10 RB (assuming good health)

His game is a little bit speed though. When he gets into the open field, he can fly. He hit 21.2 mph last year. That is the 8th fastest speed recorded since the NFL began tracking 8 years ago. Only Tyreek has moe plays over 20 mph in the NFL.

Henry had 3 or 4 (can't recall) plays where he went over 20 mph last year according to one of the broadcasts late in the season. I wouldn't worry about his speed sans injury.

well, that may be true, but you also have to account for the fact hes a bit older too. That is an impressive stat. wasnt aware of that. I guess that makes me consider him a little less risky than I thought. but still, historically not many RB's have been productive past the age of 30 so the odds are not entirely in his favor.

I still think hes worth the risk at his ADP. I think ADP wise hes going around the turn between round 1 and 2. either just before or just after. and I think that's fair. if he was 28 and had that kind of season he'd be going top 3 overall, so In this case I do believe the ADP is doing an adequate job of showing the additional risk in taking him (which does not always happen)

 

[Ilov80s]

Disappointing. Ended the regular season with no passing TDs. Can he no longer make these plays or are they just saving him for the playoffs? /s

Besides the precipitous fall in throwing attempts, his other stats were pretty good:

325 carries / 1921 yards / 16 TDs
19 receptions / 193 yards / 2 TDs

Put himself into the Hall of Fame IMO

He's the best RB of the last 20 years in my opinion, and arguably still the best right now.

Typical RB rules of longevity don’t apply to this guy.

longevity rules apply to everyone eventually.

with RB its usually a career ending injury partway through the season. occasionally its slowdown due to an accumulation of injuries.

in Henry's case hes been remarkably durable so it wont be an accumulation of injuries.

hes likely slower than he was. but speed has never really been his game. He's a power runner whose superpower has always been that hes really tough to tackle. he breaks tackles quite easily compared to most.

as long as the line in front of him opens holes, he will continue to put up decent yardage. I dont see a repeat of last years numbers. that's asking a lot for a guy on the wrong side of the age of 30. but I can see him still being a top 10 RB (assuming good health)

His game is a little bit speed though. When he gets into the open field, he can fly. He hit 21.2 mph last year. That is the 8th fastest speed recorded since the NFL began tracking 8 years ago. Only Tyreek has moe plays over 20 mph in the NFL.

Henry had 3 or 4 (can't recall) plays where he went over 20 mph last year according to one of the broadcasts late in the season. I wouldn't worry about his speed sans injury.

well, that may be true, but you also have to account for the fact hes a bit older too. That is an impressive stat. wasnt aware of that. I guess that makes me consider him a little less risky than I thought. but still, historically not many RB's have been productive past the age of 30 so the odds are not entirely in his favor.

I still think hes worth the risk at his ADP. I think ADP wise hes going around the turn between round 1 and 2. either just before or just after. and I think that's fair. if he was 28 and had that kind of season he'd be going top 3 overall, so In this case I do believe the ADP is doing an adequate job of showing the additional risk in taking him (which does not always happen)

I don't the links handy but they probably aren't hard to find. If you look at backs in their age 31 season also had RB1 level seasons at age 30, the results are actually very good. The age 32 season is a disaster but age 31 they mostly still shine.