No doubt, but they knew he was injured (and would likely miss 2019) when they spent a 4th on him to backup Guice in 2020.Yes.
But of course he has injury problems of his own to overcome.
No doubt, but they knew he was injured (and would likely miss 2019) when they spent a 4th on him to backup Guice in 2020.Yes.
But of course he has injury problems of his own to overcome.
I am not minimizing the fact that Guice has had two issues now, and the implications/risk that comes with it. However I think that risk is a little less of an issue than it was in the past given advancements in sports medicine and surgery/rehab for these injuries. I mean, the Skins already have a back that rewrote the book on expectations and performance coming back from a serious injury.But... Guice is coming off a significant injury.... after he came back back from a serious injury.
To the first point, if there was a chance that rehabbing longer would help recovery, they wouldn't clear him to play with ADP doing a solid job. But I get the point that it's the Skins who don't seem to have a great track record this year of "protecting a player's long-term value." But I don't think any team does -- it's always a win now league.and if there’s a chance that rehabbing for longer could help Guice long-term, then I agree it’s foolish to run him out there.
if, god forbid, he gets hurt again / has a setback, then they’ve further ruined what could have been a promising long-term asset.
Is that an actual thing? Is there data to support it? I am not sure I've ever hear that that's a demonstrable trend.What about the fact that players coming back off of long stretch if inactivity tend to get injured?
Wild guess - 50/50 split this weekend, transitioning to 70/30 in favor of guice week 12 and onAs a Guice and ADP owner, what do people expect this weekend for carries/snaps between the 2??
I'm about the same - thinking 64/40 in favor of ADP this week then Guice ramping up. Unfortunately this probably makes both irreverent for now.Wild guess - 50/50 split this weekend, transitioning to 70/30 in favor of guice week 12 and on
We’re giving Redskins’ backs a 4% bonus to try to make them competitive?I'm about the same - thinking 64/40 in favor of ADP this week then Guice ramping up. Unfortunately this probably makes both irreverent for now.
104% of the time, they run the ball every time.We’re giving Redskins’ backs a 4% bonus to try to make them competitive?
Best fantasy adjustment concept since ppr!
I honestly don't know. Peterson has always been labelled as a two-down back who isn't a strong pass catcher. Wasn't really leaned on in college, and I remember that strain while he was on the Vikings and then joined the Saints (e.g. can he help in the passing game on a pass-heavy team? Likely not). Though he was used last year to a small degree (20 receptions of 26 targets for 208 yards), he is definitely way off pace for that this year.Latest is the C. Thompson is still out, his toe issue seems serious. Isn't Guice the better passcatching back?
Guice isLatest is the C. Thompson is still out, his toe issue seems serious. Isn't Guice the better passcatching back?
Since this is the Redskins we're talking about and the Jets pass defense is bad, I'd expect Washington to run the ball even more than they have the last several weeks. I'd imagine that Guice will get at most 50% of the RB touches.stlrams said:As a Guice and ADP owner, what do people expect this weekend for carries/snaps between the 2??
Coach Bill Callahan said "we've got a pretty good rotational system" for RBs Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson.
Callahan added, "We feel pretty confident [Guice will] see quite a bit of action this weekend." Peterson sure isn't worried about his workload, noting, "Coach Gruden was here. He's no longer here, so different scenario." Chris Thompson (toe) remains sidelined. Either way, it's tough to see either Guice or Peterson receiving a true featured role inside of the Redskins' league-worst scoring offense. Overall, they've scored 17, 0, 9 and 9 points in four games since Callahan took over.
SOURCE: Kevin Patra on NFL.com.
Nov 14, 2019, 10:12 AM ET
Thompson is out for Sunday. He's like Jordan Reed, these one-time "offensive weapons" the Redskins hang onto for several unproductive years.Hearing AP and Chris Thompson both not practicing today, not sure if it's confirmed tho
AP put in a full practice FRI. CT was DNP.Hearing AP and Chris Thompson both not practicing today, not sure if it's confirmed tho
Has that actually been announced?Thompson is out for Sunday.
starting over Ty Johnson and Peyton Barber, so I have no other good options. I am expecting about 30 rushing yards, 4 receptions and 20 receiving yard. I'd be thrilled with double digit pointsIan Rapoport is reporting that AP is starting & Guice will play the 3rd down role & get short yardage work.
Is anybody starting Guice today? My RBs choices aren’t great this week...I’m thinking of (risking) starting him.
It’s between Guice and JD McKissic for me and I’m going Guice for the homerun potential. Being a ppr league I expect their floor to be similarIan Rapoport is reporting that AP is starting & Guice will play the 3rd down role & get short yardage work.
Is anybody starting Guice today? My RBs choices aren’t great this week...I’m thinking of (risking) starting him.
I’m thinking of starting him over Latavius MurrayIt’s between Guice and JD McKissic for me and I’m going Guice for the homerun potential. Being a ppr league I expect their floor to be similar
Yeah, with Ty Johnson back I would probably do the same.It’s between Guice and JD McKissic for me and I’m going Guice for the homerun potential. Being a ppr league I expect their floor to be similar
I think that is the right decision for many reasons. Hill isn't exciting but the volume should be there. Guice is exciting on paper but we just don't know anything about his usage.Hurting at RB and kept Guice rostered through his injury. Can't play him this week. Maybe I can be more confident next week. Rolling with Brian Hill in a waiver plug and play.
It has been announced when I posted it and is still the same right now. He's on the inactive list.Has that actually been announced?Thompson is out for Sunday.
That was a very nice TD catch and run. Showed a lot of skills.Caught a touchdown, it looks like he is filling a role similar to how Thompson was used when healthy- spelling Peterson and catching passes. In a blowout on his first game back, this probably isn’t indicative of the future, but overall he didn’t look BAD.
Derrius Guice rushed seven times for 24 yards and caught a 45-yard touchdown in the Redskins' Week 11 loss to the Jets.
Guice entered the game as the clear backup -- Adrian Peterson started and saw the first two series -- but he may have earned more work moving forward. Guice picked up a 45-yard touchdown on a screen pass and was slightly more effective running between the tackles as AP. With that being said, the Redskins aren't likely to make Guice a workhorse in 2019 given his injury history. Guice is a bench stash and low-end flex play for those in trouble.
Derrius Guice rushed 10 times for 32 yards in Washington's Week 12 win over the Lions.
Guice out-snapped Adrian Peterson (10/27) but still split carries down the middle with 10 apiece. Neither found any amount of space or success on the ground, combining for 20/59 and 2.95 yards per carry. Wendell Smallwood was also involved sparingly behind both. Carolina's lowly run defense makes for an amazing matchup for Guice in Week 13, but this backfield can't be trusted at its current state. Chris Thompson (toe) is also likely to return and further complicate matters. Guice is just a bench stash as the fantasy playoffs get underway.
I see no reason to accept anything less than a 2020 1st, but I doubt many are paying that. The couple leagues I drafted him in, simply looking at him as a free RB lottery ticket going into next season as his original draft cost is fully sunk nowdynasty owners, what are you planning to do with him? I've put him on the block and I'm not sure what I should be looking for. I'm thinking a low 1st would be enough for me to finally get off this train.
I wouldn't trade a first for him in most leagues. I have him in two leagues, both are super flex so I'd be probably take a low first for him with this class.dynasty owners, what are you planning to do with him? I've put him on the block and I'm not sure what I should be looking for. I'm thinking a low 1st would be enough for me to finally get off this train.
I want him to work out so badly, but 3 knee surgeries in 15 months is hars to over look granted, the meniscus thing isnt a major deal, but it kind of is if the meniscus didnt heal, which is incredibly possible considering the probability of success in that surgery.Not sure I would bail on Guice when we all know so much is going to change in Washington this offseason.
You're most likely going to see a new coaching staff, AP will probably be gone and Chris Thompson is an unrestricted free agent. The team has needs everywhere and RB is generally a pretty low priority in the NFL, so a high pick on a RB or a splash FA signing seems unlikely.
It seems very likely that whoever heads the new regime will have Guice as the 1A in any RB situation going into the season. Not sure you are going to be able to get a better RoI in a trade.
You may be right about him but IMO it would be short sighted to consider trading him before this season is over. He won't net you much right now and you are getting at least a glimpse of what he may, or may not be able to do. That TD catch was very nice and mostly on him.I want him to work out so badly, but 3 knee surgeries in 15 months is hars to over look granted, the meniscus thing isnt a major deal, but it kind of is if the meniscus didnt heal, which is incredibly possible considering the probability of success in that surgery.
Part of me wants off no matter what. Best case scenario, IMO, is that 2020 Guice is no better than 2019 Mixon. Worst case scenario is that he has another knee injury and ends up worthless.
Guess I'll hold and hope he ends the season well to generate hype. Haskins is terrible so far though, so I'm not sure the future is very bright
Good points all around. I think Gurley is not as fair of a comparison because Guice hasnt played due to health. I think you make a good point though that he dpeant pose much value today in terms of what he could be if he finishes the season well and has a good start to next year.You may be right about him but IMO it would be short sighted to consider trading him before this season is over. He won't net you much right now and you are getting at least a glimpse of what he may, or may not be able to do. That TD catch was very nice and mostly on him.
I also think you are way off base about his best case scenario, or maybe did not consider what the term "best case scenario" means. I think 2017 Gurley makes a good case for your best & worst case scenarios. He was pretty much written off as maybe a high volume guy who would never get right physically then delivered huge for two seasons (best case). And he did it on a team that many of us considered to be devoid of talent. Now it looks like the injury did catch up to him, or at least the Rams have been keeping him in bubble wrap because of it (worst case).
But, how many titles did Gurley deliver and how much more value could you have gotten in a trade for him after 2017, or even 2018?
It just seems to me that you are selling Guice very close to his theoretical nadir relative to his upside. Unless you find a sucker, I don't see the value for you in that scenario.
Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.Good points all around. I think Gurley is not as fair of a comparison because Guice hasnt played due to health. I think you make a good point though that he dpeant pose much value today in terms of what he could be if he finishes the season well and has a good start to next year.
Thanks for talking me off the ledge. I think you make some real good points. I'm just antsy since my RBs have been bombs this year (barkley, mixon, guice, henderson)Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.
I think there is plenty of opportunity for Guice to get right enough health wise to produce at a high level for awhile at least.
Either way selling now is too little value. If he bombs you won't get much less for him than you will now. But if he shows anything at all his value will increase probably more than it should.
If he bombs the rest of the season and into next year, you won't be getting a 1st.Yeah but your premise is that Guice may not ever be the guy he was in college because of his injuries, which is what most were saying about Gurley after 2016. That he simply wasn't ever going to be the player we thought he was going to be coming out of college because of his ACL.
I think there is plenty of opportunity for Guice to get right enough health wise to produce at a high level for awhile at least.
Either way selling now is too little value. If he bombs you won't get much less for him than you will now. But if he shows anything at all his value will increase probably more than it should.
But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.If he bombs the rest of the season and into next year, you won't be getting a 1st.
All my leagues are past the trade deadline anyway, so it's a non issue for now (for me). But if I can get Fromm or tua in super flex, I'd have to consider it. Plus the RB and WR class looks strong.
Just one more anecdotal data point. I bought Guice and a pick for spare parts a month ago. Might he be a zero? Absolutely yes. But I believe there are asymmetric outcomes here - the change in value if he goes to zero pales in comparison to the change in value if he hits, even if just for one season. As you (Dr. Dan) said, the right time to sell is probably draft if he finishes strong or middle of next season if he's put in some good tape. As usual though, the contending vs rebuilding spectrum can change the math.But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.
You're selling at the bottom which doesn't make sense. His value likely won't get lower so you might as well hold.
I'm thinking Nick Chubb too.I think 2017 Gurley makes a good case for your best & worst case scenarios.
I'm thinking Nick Chubb too.
If I can get him for a 2nd, I'm probably all over it - depending on needs.But, as most have said in here already, you're not getting a first for him now.
You're selling at the bottom which doesn't make sense. His value likely won't get lower so you might as well hold.