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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Suppose Guice stays healthy for all of 2020, as do all other RB's in the NFL.  Where would he finish?  RB10-15?  RB16-20?  Better/worse?

 
killface said:
this question honestly seems comical.  hard to imagine he's even on a team next year
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Huh?  We are talking about a 22 year old 2nd round draft pick.  I haven't heard too much about his recovery, so I figured I would bump his thread.  He still has a chance to become an NFL workhorse, but he seems a likely candidate for the glue factory if he keeps racking up injuries.

 
I can’t see how Washington doesn’t bring in other backs.  No way should they trust Guice to get full carries in any non-elimination scenario.

 
-OZ- said:
Are AP and Thompson returning?

Love actually has talent but needs to stay healthy.
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AP remains under contract for another year.

Love suffered one major injury, not putting injury tag on him.  They used a high 4th round pick on him likely knowing he was out for the year. I think he was a lock to go in round 3 and very possible he'd have been a second round guy pick if healthy. I think people have by and large forgot him and I almost hate bringing him up but I fully expect him to be healthy next year and to me it's like adding a second round/third round talent to go along with Guice and AP.  Washington's got a lot of problems, but RB is not one of them.

 
Been debating in my own head if I use Guice to trade up for a stronger RB or not.  I'm already solid at the position but thought it could use an upgrade.  Was thinking Guice + ____ for Mixon or Chubb or 1.01?  But then I went in my head and thought "well why don't I just keep Guice for the ceiling since I already have some safe'ish RB's?"  

It's a constant battle in my head.  

 
Zyphros said:
Been debating in my own head if I use Guice to trade up for a stronger RB or not.  I'm already solid at the position but thought it could use an upgrade.  Was thinking Guice + ____ for Mixon or Chubb or 1.01?  But then I went in my head and thought "well why don't I just keep Guice for the ceiling since I already have some safe'ish RB's?"  

It's a constant battle in my head.  
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IMO Guice is not even close to value to the three you mentioned. It would have to be Guice + “a lot” to get there.

 
King of the Jungle said:
IMO Guice is not even close to value to the three you mentioned. It would have to be Guice + “a lot” to get there.
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rockaction said:
This was my reaction. He's like the 37th RB in the game according to most dynasty rankings. I thought that post was tongue in cheek.
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If he's ranked that low, I'm buying all day.  Nobody has him ranked that low and expects the price to reflect his ranking though.  He's still valued near RB20 I'd say.  

 
menobrown said:
Love suffered one major injury, not putting injury tag on him.  They used a high 4th round pick on him likely knowing he was out for the year. I think he was a lock to go in round 3 and very possible he'd have been a second round guy pick if healthy. I think people have by and large forgot him and I almost hate bringing him up but I fully expect him to be healthy next year and to me it's like adding a second round/third round talent to go along with Guice and AP.  Washington's got a lot of problems, but RB is not one of them.
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Good points re: Love. I think a lot of people may be overlooking him. Who knows how much he’ll be able to return to his college form, but he’s got talent as does Guice. And with a new coaching regime, all bets are off on who will provide the most value in that backfield.

 
Zyphros said:
If he's ranked that low, I'm buying all day.  Nobody has him ranked that low and expects the price to reflect his ranking though.  He's still valued near RB20 I'd say.  
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exactly where he was taken in my recent draft.  

Kerryon Johnson, Gordon, Bell, Guice,  

But there were at least a few taken later I'd consider taking ahead of him - Hunt, Michel, Mostert, Damien Williams, David Johnson, Freeman, Ronald Jones, Penny. So really 20-28 seems about right IMO. 

 
IHEARTFF said:
I'm a huge buyer at that price. Would say he is worth closer to 1.3.
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Dr. Dan said:
most of the owners have him around there- probably worth the last rb of the top 3. He has as much if not more upside than them. BUT he does have a significant injury history (One that I am not necessarily worried about as I can explain it/expect it from a medical perspective pretty well.) I wouldnt trade for him at that price, but I wouldnt sell for less. So it depends on if that owner is worried out about his injury history or not
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unless RBs are worth a LOT more than WR, I'd swap him rather easily for the 1.03.  (I have him in multiple leagues, took him just ahead of Lamar Jackson last year. In Superflex :bag:  

 
-OZ- said:
unless RBs are worth a LOT more than WR, I'd swap him rather easily for the 1.03.  (I have him in multiple leagues, took him just ahead of Lamar Jackson last year. In Superflex :bag:  
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Agreed. I don’t own him, but if I did and someone was offering the 1.3, I couldn’t accept that fast enough. 

 
-OZ- said:
unless RBs are worth a LOT more than WR,
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1.  I think RB's are worth more

2. Guice has somewhat proven he is good. Just needs to stay healthy. The bust rate of WR's taken in that 3 range is massive.

3. Comping Guice vs WR(assuming you went that route) you got high injury risk of Guice versus high risk of the WR you draft actually being very good.

In summary for me it's a risk either way. I got Guice in one league and I have pick 4 in that league. If I was offered 1.3 I'd take it. If I was offered 1.5 I'd pass.If I did not have the 4 already I'd have to think about it, lean yes but would have to think about it. So for me I'm a little lower then 1.3 on his value but it's range, probably more in the 4-5 range for me.

 
TheWinz said:
Huh?  We are talking about a 22 year old 2nd round draft pick.  I haven't heard too much about his recovery, so I figured I would bump his thread.  He still has a chance to become an NFL workhorse, but he seems a likely candidate for the glue factory if he keeps racking up injuries.
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The 2nd round tag means nothing at this point. I was a believer. I’m not in that camp anymore. He’s talented but has a laundry list of injuries and two years lost. I would happily cash in my shares for a late 1st. 

 
menobrown said:
1.  I think RB's are worth more

2. Guice has somewhat proven he is good. Just needs to stay healthy. The bust rate of WR's taken in that 3 range is massive.

3. Comping Guice vs WR(assuming you went that route) you got high injury risk of Guice versus high risk of the WR you draft actually being very good.

In summary for me it's a risk either way. I got Guice in one league and I have pick 4 in that league. If I was offered 1.3 I'd take it. If I was offered 1.5 I'd pass.If I did not have the 4 already I'd have to think about it, lean yes but would have to think about it. So for me I'm a little lower then 1.3 on his value but it's range, probably more in the 4-5 range for me.
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1. Depends on the league. Generally you're probably right when we're talking about unproven players. But it may not be a "LOT" more. 

2. Fair enough. There are a few I like a lot and fully expect the one I'd take to be there at 3 in most leagues. 

3. Yes, there's risk either way. That's part of the reason it's a fair deal. 

 
dipandglide said:
The 2nd round tag means nothing at this point. I was a believer. I’m not in that camp anymore. He’s talented but has a laundry list of injuries and two years lost. I would happily cash in my shares for a late 1st. 
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The 2nd round tag is about all that does matter now.  If Guice were a 6th round pick who started his NFL career by missing his rookie season and most of his second season, we wouldn't even be talking about him.  As for Guice's laundry list of injuries, they are only to his legs, so it's no big deal.  His upper body is just fine.

 
TheWinz said:
The 2nd round tag is about all that does matter now.  If Guice were a 6th round pick who started his NFL career by missing his rookie season and most of his second season, we wouldn't even be talking about him.  As for Guice's laundry list of injuries, they are only to his legs, so it's no big deal.  His upper body is just fine.
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??

Is he going to be running on his hands?

 
TheWinz said:
The 2nd round tag is about all that does matter now.  If Guice were a 6th round pick who started his NFL career by missing his rookie season and most of his second season, we wouldn't even be talking about him.  As for Guice's laundry list of injuries, they are only to his legs, so it's no big deal.  His upper body is just fine.
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Seems like another Ben Tate to me. Once a RB is injured in the NFL in their early career, they'll always be in a RBBC. And another future RB has a chance to take over. Very rarely do you see a RB injured in their first 2 years become a stud. I don't think it's ever happened EVER.

Only time I can remember something SIMILAR happening is Fred Taylor, who was injured his 4th year. But, he had an amazing rookie year and 3rd year.

 
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Unwrittenlaw said:
Seems like another Ben Tate to me. Once a RB is injured in the NFL in their early career, they'll always be in a RBBC. And another future RB has a chance to take over. Very rarely do you see a RB injured in their first 2 years become a stud. I don't think it's ever happened EVER
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Lol, you just got to go all the way back to this current season we just had.

 
Guice’s upside is gone. He will never have a backfield to himself, because he can’t be trusted to stay healthy. I wouldn’t give a late first for him 

 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Seems like another Ben Tate to me. Once a RB is injured in the NFL in their early career, they'll always be in a RBBC. And another future RB has a chance to take over. Very rarely do you see a RB injured in their first 2 years become a stud. I don't think it's ever happened EVER.

Only time I can remember something SIMILAR happening is Fred Taylor, who was injured his 4th year. But, he had an amazing rookie year and 3rd year.
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This guy had a very good 10 year NFL career... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_wPOfTGegA

 
Unwrittenlaw said:
Seems like another Ben Tate to me. Once a RB is injured in the NFL in their early career, they'll always be in a RBBC. And another future RB has a chance to take over. Very rarely do you see a RB injured in their first 2 years become a stud. I don't think it's ever happened EVER.

Only time I can remember something SIMILAR happening is Fred Taylor, who was injured his 4th year. But, he had an amazing rookie year and 3rd year.
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Depends how you define this, but Steven Jackson had knee surgery both after the draft and after his rookie season. 

Generally speaking you have a point. 

 
Regardless of his ability to stay healthy going forward, he's lost his first two seasons and age becomes a factor (to me) when you slot him into a rookie draft.  

Another factor for me is his ability as a receiver.  He hasn't been heavily used at the college or pro level and the Skins seem content to use a complementary player in that role.   Can't say that his past usage if necessarily an indicator of his ability but it is a question mark for me.

I'm not down on Guice... quite the opposite.  I really like the WRs in this class and would slot Guice late in the round.

 
In 2018 Guice was looking like consensus 1.02 before he tore his ACL. Then he comes back and has meniscus surgery to the other knee after week 1 of 2019. He comes back to change the pace (highest carry game all season is 10), before injuring his MCL and getting shut down for the remainder. But somehow owners plan on trading him now for 1.03 in a loaded draft?? Simply ridiculous. 

 
Arodin said:
Isn’t this pretty much the case for every draft ever by this time of year?
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I think what set this class back is the 4 RB's who surprised people by remaining in school. Had they come out I think we'd have been looking at class that was every bit as advertised. Saying that I obviously don't agree in the least with the notion this draft is 50% of what it was billed.  The WR's are every bit as advertised, the TE's exceeded expectations, but the RB depth is poor to me-solid enough at the top but a little lacking in depth.

All in all I consider this one of the best draft classes since I've been doing dynasty, which my first rookie draft was 2012 I think. 

 
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