RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

[Grahamburn]

Rainey would probably be the "handcuff" for early down work anyway. I don't see Sims being much more than a passing down player.

 

[Jack White]

Have had this little jerk the last 2 years. Hate him, a lot, but he looks really good.

I don't like him either. But here I was, looking at my board for my 6.12 pick. And who was the 39th draftable player on my board? Yep, Dougie.He will either crack my lineup (Hill, Foster, Yeldon) or I will sell high on him.

 

[jurb26]

Rainey would probably be the "handcuff" for early down work anyway. I don't see Sims being much more than a passing down player.

Really? Sims looks better to me.

 

[Jack White]

Rainey would probably be the "handcuff" for early down work anyway. I don't see Sims being much more than a passing down player.

Really? Sims looks better to me.

Rainey sucks. But I think Sims is a mediocre runner.

 

[Quez]

The shark move will be to trade him after he shreds Tennessee week 1.

 

[The General]

Have had this little jerk the last 2 years. Hate him, a lot, but he looks really good.

I don't like him either. But here I was, looking at my board for my 6.12 pick. And who was the 39th draftable player on my board? Yep, Dougie.He will either crack my lineup (Hill, Foster, Yeldon) or I will sell high on him.

I drafted him again at 7.3. I hate myself for it but he looked great and is playing for money so hopefully he can be decent.

He owes us!

 

[TeeDub]

Have had this little jerk the last 2 years. Hate him, a lot, but he looks really good.

I don't like him either. But here I was, looking at my board for my 6.12 pick. And who was the 39th draftable player on my board? Yep, Dougie.He will either crack my lineup (Hill, Foster, Yeldon) or I will sell high on him.

I drafted him again at 7.3. I hate myself for it but he looked great and is playing for money so hopefully he can be decent.He owes us!

You said the M word......money ?

 

[nb009]

A little worried about their O-Line dropping like flies.

 

[althepostman]

Went back and watched Martins 2012..... Dude was filthy. It wasn't just the Oakland game, which seems to be the popular narrative. Was there a quote from the team saying that Sims is locked in on third down? I keep hearing that but martin looks better both recieving and blocking. Assuming rational coaching of course....

 

[duaneok66]

A little worried about their O-Line dropping like flies.

just entered the thread to type this.

 

[Quez]

martin looks better both recieving and blocking.

Martin looked terrible blocking in the last game.

 

[matttyl]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

 

[addicted2ff]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Age isn't as big of a factor as number of carries at this point of his career.

 

[FF Ninja]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario is obviously that he signs with the best run blocking team next year as the bell cow. Somewhere like Dallas, Houston, or Baltimore. Most realistic "good" scenario is what you said. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Tampa and the line/offense should be improving.

 

[matttyl]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario is obviously that he signs with the best run blocking team next year as the bell cow. Somewhere like Dallas, Houston, or Baltimore. Most realistic "good" scenario is what you said. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Tampa and the line/offense should be improving.

Would he be brought in as a starter at age 27 in any of those 3 places next year?

 

[cstu]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario is obviously that he signs with the best run blocking team next year as the bell cow. Somewhere like Dallas, Houston, or Baltimore. Most realistic "good" scenario is what you said. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Tampa and the line/offense should be improving.

Would he be brought in as a starter at age 27 in any of those 3 places next year?

Sure, why not? Baltimore has a 30 year old starting RB and Foster is 29.

 

[Grahamburn]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario for him is to have a Demarco Murray type season this year. I have no idea what the best case scenario for his future fantasy prospects are. End up signing with a prolific offensive team that has no competition for touches at the position.

Most franchises seem to content to draft RBs and invest their dollars in other areas.

 

[ponchsox]

Could pay off huge for those going with zero RB strategy.

 

[matttyl]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario is obviously that he signs with the best run blocking team next year as the bell cow. Somewhere like Dallas, Houston, or Baltimore. Most realistic "good" scenario is what you said. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Tampa and the line/offense should be improving.

Would he be brought in as a starter at age 27 in any of those 3 places next year?

Sure, why not? Baltimore has a 30 year old starting RB and Foster is 29.

Baltimore found themselves in that very odd situation due to situation with Ray Rice, though. He wasn't brought in to be the starter, he was brought in to be behind Rice and even Bernard Pierce (who got hurt) with a one year deal. He just happened to really flourish. As for Foster in Houston who's 29, he was given the starting job at age 24 - he wasn't brought in at 27 and given the job.

I just mean to say it's rare that a RB is brought into a new team situation at that late age and handed a starting job. Yes, it happend with both Murray and McCoy this offseason but both of them were coming off of multiple years of big success - something that Martin won't have.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I just mean to say it's rare that a RB is brought into a new team situation at that late age and handed a starting job. Yes, it happend with both Murray and McCoy this offseason but both of them were coming off of multiple years of big success - something that Martin won't have.

In addition to Murray (27) and McCoy (27) the last few years have also seen it happen with Toby Gerhart (27), Rashad Jennings (29), Steven Jackson (30), Frank Gore (32), Knowshon Moreno (27), Ahmad Bradshaw (28), and Rashard Mendenhall (26). I think we can also fairly safely assume that Philly had brought in Mathews (27) to be their lead back before Murray ended up falling in their laps.

Regardless, while teams certainly aren't lining up to give 30 year old RBs $40 million dollar contracts like they were in the days of Edgerrin James and Shaun Alexander, they are still more than willing to bring in a moderately priced 27 year old RB to be their lead back for a little bit.

 

[FF Ninja]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario is obviously that he signs with the best run blocking team next year as the bell cow. Somewhere like Dallas, Houston, or Baltimore. Most realistic "good" scenario is what you said. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Tampa and the line/offense should be improving.

Would he be brought in as a starter at age 27 in any of those 3 places next year?

Wtf?

First, most free agents are just coming off their rookie contracts so they're usually 26-28. Finding a free agent under 26-27 is pretty rare. Pretty much every FA RB signing to start is at least 26. Guys like Michael Turner (26), Priest Holmes (28), Thomas Jones (26 - Chi, 29 - Jets), etc.

Second, are we acting like 27 is the new 30?

2015 FA signings to start:

Gore - 32

Forsett - 30

Murray - 27

 

[FF Ninja]

What's his best case scenario "long term". He's a 26 year old Rb on the last year of his rookie deal with a coaching staff that isn't the one that drafted him, with 3 RBs on the depth chart behind him that were all brought in since him (2 of those by the current coaching staff). He's also got a rookie QB.

I would think his best case scenario would be to do well enough in 2015 to be resigned by the Bucs for 2016+. I mean, if not, how many other teams will be falling all over themselves to sign a free agent 27 year old RB to be their guy?

Best case scenario is obviously that he signs with the best run blocking team next year as the bell cow. Somewhere like Dallas, Houston, or Baltimore. Most realistic "good" scenario is what you said. He doesn't have a lot of competition in Tampa and the line/offense should be improving.

Would he be brought in as a starter at age 27 in any of those 3 places next year?

Sure, why not? Baltimore has a 30 year old starting RB and Foster is 29.

Baltimore found themselves in that very odd situation due to situation with Ray Rice, though. He wasn't brought in to be the starter, he was brought in to be behind Rice and even Bernard Pierce (who got hurt) with a one year deal. He just happened to really flourish. As for Foster in Houston who's 29, he was given the starting job at age 24 - he wasn't brought in at 27 and given the job.

I just mean to say it's rare that a RB is brought into a new team situation at that late age and handed a starting job. Yes, it happend with both Murray and McCoy this offseason but both of them were coming off of multiple years of big success - something that Martin won't have.

As I mentioned above, it's not rare at all. I'd say at least 75% of FA RBs that are brought in to start are 27+. If we make that number 26+, then it probably jumps to 95%. The number of FA RBs <26 years old is very, very small. Basically, your logic is that teams only promote from within or keep the same RB. Foster was given a large contract extension around age 26 or 27, I believe. Lynch just got one at 29. If they had not, they'd have signed with another team to start. Typically a team with a RB need will either draft someone to start or they are going to be signing someone who is 26+.

 

[matttyl]

I guess what I'm saying is that it's a rarity for a RB to have decent success at his second team. The top 18 RBs in my league last year were Murray, Lynch, Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles, Forsett, Hill, Miller, Anderson, McCoy, Ingram, Morris, J Bell, Gore, Gio, and Asiata (stopped there cause we're getting into weird situations as Asiata was only putting up stats due to Peterson's situation).

Only 2 of those 18 were on their 2nd teams. Sure, Gore and Murray and McCoy could all throw that trend off this coming year. I'll grant you that. All 3 of them, though, were coming off of multiple years of great NFL success - and even with a decent year this year Martin just won't have that (it will be 2 out of 4).

If he goes somewhere next year, it will be to a competition - which he could very well win out on. Of course that could happen.

 

[plastik]

I guess what I'm saying is that it's a rarity for a RB to have decent success at his second team. The top 18 RBs in my league last year were Murray, Lynch, Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles, Forsett, Hill, Miller, Anderson, McCoy, Ingram, Morris, J Bell, Gore, Gio, and Asiata (stopped there cause we're getting into weird situations as Asiata was only putting up stats due to Peterson's situation).

Only 2 of those 18 were on their 2nd teams. Sure, Gore and Murray and McCoy could all throw that trend off this coming year. I'll grant you that. All 3 of them, though, were coming off of multiple years of great NFL success - and even with a decent year this year Martin just won't have that (it will be 2 out of 4).

If he goes somewhere next year, it will be to a competition - which he could very well win out on. Of course that could happen.

Minor point, but I believe Joique Bell was a UDFA for BUF, then had stints in PHI, IND, and NOS.

 

[Wrigley]

6.10(12 teams)

4 week fill in.

:contractyear:

 

[Jack White]

The shark move will be to trade him after he shreds Tennessee week 1.

Guy offered me Randle for him after the draft.

I will make him pay a much higher price later.

 

[FF Ninja]

I guess what I'm saying is that it's a rarity for a RB to have decent success at his second team. The top 18 RBs in my league last year were Murray, Lynch, Forte, Foster, Lacy, Charles, Forsett, Hill, Miller, Anderson, McCoy, Ingram, Morris, J Bell, Gore, Gio, and Asiata (stopped there cause we're getting into weird situations as Asiata was only putting up stats due to Peterson's situation).

Only 2 of those 18 were on their 2nd teams. Sure, Gore and Murray and McCoy could all throw that trend off this coming year. I'll grant you that. All 3 of them, though, were coming off of multiple years of great NFL success - and even with a decent year this year Martin just won't have that (it will be 2 out of 4).

If he goes somewhere next year, it will be to a competition - which he could very well win out on. Of course that could happen.

So... ignore your point about age and now focus on success of RB transitions? First you must consider that fantasy RB turnover is very high year-to-year, so a guy putting up RB1 stats only has like a 50/50 shot of maintaining that whether he stays in the same situation or not. Second you must consider there just aren't that many high profile job changes. If each contract lasts 4 years and often guys stay with the same team, how many transitions (good or bad) are there to observe? Third, there are a lot of RBBC situations now, so how many true lead back jobs are there to even be won?

You seem to be implying that staying put would give Martin a higher chance for success because you can't recall a lot of successful transitions, but that just doesn't really hold up. If Doug stays healthy and plays well, he'll do as well as his situation allows. I think he's a middling starter, so he'll need a good situation to prosper. I doubt he could go to Tennessee and rack up points. Put him in Dallas and he's top 12. Don't overthink it. RBs are as close* to plug 'n play as any position in the NFL can be.

I know some guys fit a little better in different schemes, but schemes can and will change on their current team. Doug will be in a totally different system this year than last year.

Tomlinson changed teams around age 30 and had a nice resurgence. Amazing what an offensive line will do for a guy.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I will probably regret saying this--but I just cannot buy into him this season. I had many shares on him in his rookie season when he was being compared to a new "Ray Rice" (I'm talking on the field version)--and he was very frustrating to own. He had a few huge games that really made his season long stats look fairly good--but trusting him week to week was ambiguous at best. I see the very same thing happening this season. He'll have a few great games that'll give his owners hope--but then follow them up with several duds. He'll be one of those guys that is frustrating to own. He'll be too good to drop--but not good enough to trust on a week to week basis. In my opinion--he'll be a boom or bust rb 2 from week to week--and like some of the sharks have indicated--it's probably a good move to sell high on him after one of his monster games.

One thing to remember is that I probably did jinx him big time by saying this--so you can probably pencil him in as being the best rb in all of fantasy this season.

 

[Grahamburn]

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

 

[FF Ninja]

I will probably regret saying this--but I just cannot buy into him this season. I had many shares on him in his rookie season when he was being compared to a new "Ray Rice" (I'm talking on the field version)--and he was very frustrating to own. He had a few huge games that really made his season long stats look fairly good--but trusting him week to week was ambiguous at best. I see the very same thing happening this season. He'll have a few great games that'll give his owners hope--but then follow them up with several duds. He'll be one of those guys that is frustrating to own. He'll be too good to drop--but not good enough to trust on a week to week basis. In my opinion--he'll be a boom or bust rb 2 from week to week--and like some of the sharks have indicated--it's probably a good move to sell high on him after one of his monster games.

One thing to remember is that I probably did jinx him big time by saying this--so you can probably pencil him in as being the best rb in all of fantasy this season.

Can't fault you as I don't think he's that great, but what I do like is his situation. Koetter is much better than whatever shlubs he's been under the past three years. Schiano's team fell apart in the second year and last year was obviously a train wreck, so it's really hard to fault him for being less than consistent. And a rookie QB doesn't exactly instill confidence, but if you look back you'll see that Koetter has done pretty well with what he's had to work with at RB and he was the one who lobbied to keep Doug around. That should at least make you feel good about getting him as a cheap RB2. Talent and situation are always going to be murky for 4th round RBs. With Doug you know you've got a fair to middling starting RB talent with a solid path to significant touches. If you expect top 5 production for 16 weeks out of the 4th round then you need to rethink your expectations.

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

Ivory is the only guy I can think of.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

I get your point--but off of the top of my head---I'd rather take guys like Chris Ivory, TJ Yeldon, Arian Foster over him. Also--if reports start to indicate that Tre Mason's injury is nothing to worry about--throw him in that mix as well. I know I'm in the minority here--and a great fantasy owner should not hold biases against players---but I've been stung by Martin before. I wish all of his owners that he has a great season--but he's a player that has burned a bridge with me. If he does great--I'll be the first to say "oh well, I played that wrong".

 

[Grahamburn]

An interesting list. Maybe I don't know what consistent means.

I personally love guys like Martin. He's like Cedric Benson, or Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, Ronnie Brown. Players fantasy guys used high picks on in whatever year and then ignore years later when they have another shot.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

An interesting list. Maybe I don't know what consistent means.

I personally love guys like Martin. He's like Cedric Benson, or Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, Ronnie Brown. Players fantasy guys used high picks on in whatever year and then ignore years later when they have another shot.

Over the last two seasons--Martin has played 17 games (more or less the equivalent to one entire regular season). He has a total of 3 td's in his last 17 games. Over the past two seasons--if you are playing in a ppr league--his high score (1ppr, 1pt for every rush 10 rush, 1pt for every 10 reception yards, -2pts for fumbles) over the last two seasons is less than 14 fantasy points. Over the past two seasons--the dude is averaging 1 td per every 5.4 games.

It's hard to call a guy like this dependable or consistent. If you look at last year-- he was the 59th ranked RB in fantasy points per game in ppr leagues, and 52nd ranked rb in fantasy points per game in standard leagues. In a 12 team league--this means that he was barely putting up rb4-5 numbers--and we're supposed to somehow think that is outlook has somehow jumped into the solid rb2 world? He has an unproven rookie qb, the teams best weapon is dealing with a hamstring issue, the one thing that their aging second best wr is good at is being a big end zone target--and Martin himself has barely found the endzone in the last two years.

Again--I'm not saying that he will be bad--he could very well be great. All I'm saying is that the notion that he is a "value" this season is not justified by his previous 2 seasons. Guys like him can be tough to own--because while you continue to hold and own him to catch one of those big games--you're missing out on guys who could help your team. Last season--you would have been far better off dumping him early and picking up waiver wire material like forsett, cj anderson, brandon oliver, helu, tre mason, denard robinson, hillman week to week as they all outplayed him at times throughout the year.

 

[duaneok66]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.

With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

 

[addicted2ff]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.

With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

It's not just the preseason games. Multiple sources say he's been very impressive in camp. He cut weight to be faster and more agile. He's creating yards on his own and I didn't see that at all the last 2 years.

If Martin is a dud this year it's because TB is a terrible team, not because Martin sucks.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.

With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

It's not just the preseason games. Multiple sources say he's been very impressive in camp. He cut weight to be faster and more agile. He's creating yards on his own and I didn't see that at all the last 2 years.

If Martin is a dud this year it's because TB is a terrible team, not because Martin sucks.

Tampa Bay is a terrible team--we can all pretty much agree on that. The fact of the matter is that we all take into account talent and situation when it comes to evaluating players. Take for example---Brandon Marshall. His talent and output is proven--and when he was in a decently dynamic offense--he was a bonafide 2nd-3rd round pick. His adp now because his situation has changed is 58. He's a proven elite talent--and his change of scenario shot him down 2-3 rounds.

Martin has barely been rosterable over two years---is still on a fairly terrible team--with a rookie qb-- but his flashes in camp and in parts of three pre-season games are supposed to make him a value in the 4th-5th round. With this being said---I'm not saying he's going to be a bad play this season. In snake drafts we all have decisions to make where we decide which players make the most sense with the rounds that we draft them in. I'd have zero concerns with Martin being drafted in 7th-9th rounds on the sheer fact that he should see volume--but I just personally can't call him a value at this point in time where he's going. That doesn't mean that he won't prove me wrong. I wish all Martin owners luck (except for when they play me. lol)

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

It's not just the preseason games. Multiple sources say he's been very impressive in camp. He cut weight to be faster and more agile. He's creating yards on his own and I didn't see that at all the last 2 years.If Martin is a dud this year it's because TB is a terrible team, not because Martin sucks.

Tampa Bay is a terrible team--we can all pretty much agree on that. The fact of the matter is that we all take into account talent and situation when it comes to evaluating players. Take for example---Brandon Marshall. His talent and output is proven--and when he was in a decently dynamic offense--he was a bonafide 2nd-3rd round pick. His adp now because his situation has changed is 58. He's a proven elite talent--and his change of scenario shot him down 2-3 rounds. Martin has barely been rosterable over two years---is still on a fairly terrible team--with a rookie qb-- but his flashes in camp and in parts of three pre-season games are supposed to make him a value in the 4th-5th round. With this being said---I'm not saying he's going to be a bad play this season. In snake drafts we all have decisions to make where we decide which players make the most sense with the rounds that we draft them in. I'd have zero concerns with Martin being drafted in 7th-9th rounds on the sheer fact that he should see volume--but I just personally can't call him a value at this point in time where he's going. That doesn't mean that he won't prove me wrong. I wish all Martin owners luck (except for when they play me. lol)

Keep trying.

 

[EBF]

I will probably regret saying this--but I just cannot buy into him this season. I had many shares on him in his rookie season when he was being compared to a new "Ray Rice" (I'm talking on the field version)--and he was very frustrating to own. He had a few huge games that really made his season long stats look fairly good--but trusting him week to week was ambiguous at best.

Gotta throw the BS flag on that one. It's demonstrably false by taking a quick look at his game logs.

In PPR formats he had 10 or more points in 13 of 16 games that season, usually by a pretty wide margin. From week 6 to week 17, he actually only had one game of fewer than 12.8 points, so basically he was giving his owners reliable RB1 production every week down the stretch.

He was a bust in 2013-2014. That much is certain. Personally, I feel it was a combination of him being overrated, injured, and surrounded by a bad supporting cast. I am still a buyer/holder and believe that he will present a nice value in 2015 redraft/dynasty leagues. I think the arrival of Winston will add credibility to the passing game, and the further development of Seferian-Jenkins and Evans should help ensure that the team moves the ball, has balance, and scores points. And while it doesn't necessarily mean much, he looks crisp and explosive in preseason action.

 

[addicted2ff]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.

With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

It's not just the preseason games. Multiple sources say he's been very impressive in camp. He cut weight to be faster and more agile. He's creating yards on his own and I didn't see that at all the last 2 years.

If Martin is a dud this year it's because TB is a terrible team, not because Martin sucks.

Tampa Bay is a terrible team--we can all pretty much agree on that. The fact of the matter is that we all take into account talent and situation when it comes to evaluating players. Take for example---Brandon Marshall. His talent and output is proven--and when he was in a decently dynamic offense--he was a bonafide 2nd-3rd round pick. His adp now because his situation has changed is 58. He's a proven elite talent--and his change of scenario shot him down 2-3 rounds.

Martin has barely been rosterable over two years---is still on a fairly terrible team--with a rookie qb-- but his flashes in camp and in parts of three pre-season games are supposed to make him a value in the 4th-5th round. With this being said---I'm not saying he's going to be a bad play this season. In snake drafts we all have decisions to make where we decide which players make the most sense with the rounds that we draft them in. I'd have zero concerns with Martin being drafted in 7th-9th rounds on the sheer fact that he should see volume--but I just personally can't call him a value at this point in time where he's going. That doesn't mean that he won't prove me wrong. I wish all Martin owners luck (except for when they play me. lol)

If you assume he remains the early down back getting goal line carries and keeps that job the whole year he projects to have low end RB2 numbers. That's also assuming TB remains a terrible team like they have been the past 2 years. That's why his ADP is where it's at.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

It's not just the preseason games. Multiple sources say he's been very impressive in camp. He cut weight to be faster and more agile. He's creating yards on his own and I didn't see that at all the last 2 years.If Martin is a dud this year it's because TB is a terrible team, not because Martin sucks.

Tampa Bay is a terrible team--we can all pretty much agree on that. The fact of the matter is that we all take into account talent and situation when it comes to evaluating players. Take for example---Brandon Marshall. His talent and output is proven--and when he was in a decently dynamic offense--he was a bonafide 2nd-3rd round pick. His adp now because his situation has changed is 58. He's a proven elite talent--and his change of scenario shot him down 2-3 rounds. Martin has barely been rosterable over two years---is still on a fairly terrible team--with a rookie qb-- but his flashes in camp and in parts of three pre-season games are supposed to make him a value in the 4th-5th round. With this being said---I'm not saying he's going to be a bad play this season. In snake drafts we all have decisions to make where we decide which players make the most sense with the rounds that we draft them in. I'd have zero concerns with Martin being drafted in 7th-9th rounds on the sheer fact that he should see volume--but I just personally can't call him a value at this point in time where he's going. That doesn't mean that he won't prove me wrong. I wish all Martin owners luck (except for when they play me. lol)

Keep trying.

Keep trying what? I'm entitled to my opinion and I have numbers to back it up. I actually find it cool that others have differing opinions and I think it's cool to hear why. If your entire contribution to people sharing differing opinions is "keep trying"--how about the novel concept of saying nothing if you have zero to contribute? Over the last two seasons this dude has averaged basically 7 fantasy points per game in ppr leagues. Why don't you "keep trying" to explain why a few series in three preseason games should trump his actual production over the last two years?

 

[Grahamburn]

The reason his ADP is rising and people are paying attention to him is because everyone who attended camp says he looked like a different player. He then came out in real games against people trying to tackle him and he looked fantastic. That's why 2013 and 2014 are being "trumped."

How often do you think you're going to win in this hobby if you simply take stats from the previous season and project the exact same thing for the coming season? It's certainly possible Tampa's offense could be drastically different in 2015 with Dirk Koetter (a real offensive coordinator) calling the plays instead of a QB coach, Jameis Winston at QB, 3 monsters catching his passes, and a rededicated Doug Martin.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

One point not being mentioned is that the bucs were also not a great team in martins rookie season yet he excelled. He has a very high ceiling and is a dream rb3.

 

[FF Ninja]

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

I get your point--but off of the top of my head---I'd rather take guys like Chris Ivory, TJ Yeldon, Arian Foster over him. Also--if reports start to indicate that Tre Mason's injury is nothing to worry about--throw him in that mix as well. I know I'm in the minority here--and a great fantasy owner should not hold biases against players---but I've been stung by Martin before. I wish all of his owners that he has a great season--but he's a player that has burned a bridge with me. If he does great--I'll be the first to say "oh well, I played that wrong".

That's it? Three guys? So if he was being drafted a few spots later you'd agree with his ADP? I obviously agree that Ivory is also a good selection around this ADP range we are looking at, but Yeldon is actually going a few picks before Martin and he is also :X You expect "consistent" production from a rookie on a terrible team? I mean, JAX has as much chance to improve as Tampa, but they are essentially quite similar situations plus Yeldon is totally unproven and may not even start week 1. He doesn't even fit your own paradigm.

Foster is all over the map due to an unknown duration of missed time, so adding him to your list really doesn't say much. IF he can stay healthy WHEN he comes back, he'll probably be consistent if Hoyer can move the ball. He's a great high risk/high ceiling pick, but Doug appears to be a great low risk/high floor pick. Totally different strategies here. But again, Foster and Yeldon don't fit the model you laid out about consistent production.

Basically it sounds like you just don't like the guy. You don't really have a case against him other than citing the last two years, both with injuries and both in different offensive systems. I don't even really like him much as a player, but I like his situation - bell cow 1st/2nd down back for Koetter. Put a mediocre NFL starting RB talent in that situation and you're going to get fantasy points in all formats. Simple as that.

 

[FF Ninja]

One point not being mentioned is that the bucs were also not a great team in martins rookie season yet he excelled. He has a very high ceiling and is a dream rb3.

To be fair, they were actually above average: 13th in points, 9th in total yards, 10th in passing yards.

However, blaming Martin for the last two years would be foolish. Here's where they ranked:

2013 - 30th in points, 32nd in total yards, 32nd in passing yards

2014 - 29th in points, 30th in total yards, 25th in passing yards

Almost nobody would've faired well in that situation. That team has been a total train wreck the last two years. If Koetter can salvage this offense, and he's certainly got the weapons if Winston is merely a capable NFL QB, then it'll make it much, much easier for the running game to produce fantasy points. If Winston is a bust then Martin will need to stay healthy and hope to survive on volume and garbage time.

 

[Chaka]

If you are in the camp that says that Martin was either out of shape or hurt (or both) in 2014, then you think he will bounce back this year. His preseason play only confirms this (in my book).

We will see.

How about 2013--when he had 1 td in six games played? Was he hurt and out of shape then too? Don't get me wrong--I think he could be great--but to value one preseason that means absolutely nothing over two seasons of putrid fantasy output seems very weird. If he was having an average or below average pre-season--we'd seriously be looking at a guy that would be worth a 9-10th round pick at best. I just find it a little weird that people are shooting this guy up 4-6 rounds because he happened to look halfway decent in 3 preseason games--after he was terrible for his previous 17 actual regular season games.With this being said--I want to make clear that I am not saying that I project him to be bad. I'm not trying to be some sort of hater. He could very well be great--but I just find the hype and the value to not make sense.

I don't think his value shot up because he has been impressive in the preseason. I think it began shooting up after Lovie Smith declared in no uncertain terms that Martin was the unquestioned starter. Up to that point the fantasy world was split into three camps (one for Sims, Rainey and Martin). After that it was expected that his value would skyrocket. I know that is when I began to be interested in him.

 

[matttyl]

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

Ivory is the only guy I can think of.

Maybe J Stew? Maybe one of the Lions RBs if one takes the lead. If you're in a league that rewards return yards (and he's getting them) maybe Spiller.

 

[Grahamburn]

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

Ivory is the only guy I can think of.

Maybe J Stew? Maybe one of the Lions RBs if one takes the lead. If you're in a league that rewards return yards (and he's getting them) maybe Spiller.

The argument against Martin was his lack of consistency. None of these guys have that either. I think my point is made.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

He was a 10th round flyer for me so I don't have much invested in him. If he does well, I have my bye week filler or possibly trade bait for a RB starved team. If he flops, well, he was just a 10 rounder and my 4th RB. Anyone over drafting him or thinking he'll be their RB2 or whatever is playing with fire.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

One point not being mentioned is that the bucs were also not a great team in martins rookie season yet he excelled. He has a very high ceiling and is a dream rb3.

To be fair, they were actually above average: 13th in points, 9th in total yards, 10th in passing yards.

However, blaming Martin for the last two years would be foolish. Here's where they ranked:

2013 - 30th in points, 32nd in total yards, 32nd in passing yards

2014 - 29th in points, 30th in total yards, 25th in passing yards

Almost nobody would've faired well in that situation. That team has been a total train wreck the last two years. If Koetter can salvage this offense, and he's certainly got the weapons if Winston is merely a capable NFL QB, then it'll make it much, much easier for the running game to produce fantasy points. If Winston is a bust then Martin will need to stay healthy and hope to survive on volume and garbage time.

That's not exactly true. Mike Evans excelled just fine in that anemic offense. They were the 25th ranked offense in passing yards---and 29th in points---and had horrid qb play--and yet he managed to just fine? Let's call a spade a spade. I have said many times that Martin could very well be good this season-- I've never said otherwise. But to say that his output for the past 2 seasons had nothing to do with him and had everything to do with his situation is false. Martin flat out sucked the last two years--because he sucked. Even the pro-Martin guys in this thread clearly say that he looks like a different player--so to blame his "situation" for the last two seasons is not accurate. In regards to the "consistent" argument that another member has made---there has only been 1 consistency with Martin over the last 2 seasons---he consistently has underperformed his APD over the last 2 seasons.

In 2013--his ADP has tht of a top 5 pick. Giving him benefit of the doubt--as he only played 6 games--his average points per game in ppr leagues put him as the 31st best rb.

In 2014--his adp was approximately 32. His points per game average in ppr leagues ranks him as the 59th best rb.

The "consistency" argument is not one for Martin--it's one against Martin. His ADP over the last two seasons is a clear indication that the fantasy community was "hopeful' of his out look and "projected" him to do well both seasons--and he's massively failed both seasons. To say "name" me a guy that is guaranteed to be more consistent than him this season is laughable--as there is obviously no way for anybody to do this. Martins entire career has been inconsistent. He has a great rookie season--followed by two garbage seasons. In 2014 (last year)--his own teammate (Bobbie Rainey) averaged 9.8 fantasy pts per game versus Martins 7.3.

Again---I want to make it crystal clear that I'm not saying that he will be bad this year. He can be great--and frankly I hope that he's great. However--I personally don't like his value where he is going---and will not be owning any shares of him because of this. Lets not forget that just before the pre-season started this year--his own teammate (Charles Simms) was going ahead of him in many early drafts. His value has literally skyrocketed mainly due to a few series in 3 pre-season games.