RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

[The General]

Hoping to see him breaking tackles, looking shifty, making things happen like he did in the preseason on more than a few carries.

Once the season actually starts fully expecting him to break zero tackles and just run straight into the pile for no gain 10 times a game like he did the past couple of years.

Can't believe I drafted him again.

 

[ponchsox]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

 

[FF Ninja]

I know I sound like a broken record in saying this, but what RB's going in the same area as Martin (even with his ever rising ADP) can you count on for consistent week to week production?

Ivory is the only guy I can think of.

Maybe J Stew? Maybe one of the Lions RBs if one takes the lead. If you're in a league that rewards return yards (and he's getting them) maybe Spiller.

Hmm, yeah, I think I'm the only person left who still likes Spiller in all formats. He's actually so much cheaper now due to the injury I didn't think of him. I think he'll get enough carries and targets to potentially be a consistent performer. But if he's going to miss the first two weeks (rumor) then you've got to be worried about that knee.

I love Stewart's talent, but man, he's got a lot stacked against him - injury history (specifically the ankles), lack of WRs to open things up, poor offensive line. He's a good option, but I'd much rather have Martin's lesser talent and better situation. Although with recent injuries maybe he's as brittle as Stewart.

Detroit is obviously way more of a speculative play than Martin, so I think it has to be disqualified.

 

[Tau837]

All I'm saying is that the notion that he is a "value" this season is not justified by his previous 2 seasons.

The notion that he is a value is because of his play the past two seasons combined with the reasons to believe it will be improved this season. If his previous two seasons justified this because he had played better, he wouldn't be a value, because his ADP would be much higher.

 

[FF Ninja]

One point not being mentioned is that the bucs were also not a great team in martins rookie season yet he excelled. He has a very high ceiling and is a dream rb3.

To be fair, they were actually above average: 13th in points, 9th in total yards, 10th in passing yards.

However, blaming Martin for the last two years would be foolish. Here's where they ranked:

2013 - 30th in points, 32nd in total yards, 32nd in passing yards

2014 - 29th in points, 30th in total yards, 25th in passing yards

Almost nobody would've faired well in that situation. That team has been a total train wreck the last two years. If Koetter can salvage this offense, and he's certainly got the weapons if Winston is merely a capable NFL QB, then it'll make it much, much easier for the running game to produce fantasy points. If Winston is a bust then Martin will need to stay healthy and hope to survive on volume and garbage time.

That's not exactly true. Mike Evans excelled just fine in that anemic offense. They were the 25th ranked offense in passing yards---and 29th in points---and had horrid qb play--and yet he managed to just fine? Let's call a spade a spade. I have said many times that Martin could very well be good this season-- I've never said otherwise. But to say that his output for the past 2 seasons had nothing to do with him and had everything to do with his situation is false. Martin flat out sucked the last two years--because he sucked. Even the pro-Martin guys in this thread clearly say that he looks like a different player--so to blame his "situation" for the last two seasons is not accurate.In regards to the "consistent" argument that another member has made---there has only been 1 consistency with Martin over the last 2 seasons---he consistently has underperformed his APD over the last 2 seasons.

In 2013--his ADP has tht of a top 5 pick. Giving him benefit of the doubt--as he only played 6 games--his average points per game in ppr leagues put him as the 31st best rb.

In 2014--his adp was approximately 32. His points per game average in ppr leagues ranks him as the 59th best rb.

The "consistency" argument is not one for Martin--it's one against Martin. His ADP over the last two seasons is a clear indication that the fantasy community was "hopeful' of his out look and "projected" him to do well both seasons--and he's massively failed both seasons. To say "name" me a guy that is guaranteed to be more consistent than him this season is laughable--as there is obviously no way for anybody to do this. Martins entire career has been inconsistent. He has a great rookie season--followed by two garbage seasons. In 2014 (last year)--his own teammate (Bobbie Rainey) averaged 9.8 fantasy pts per game versus Martins 7.3.

Again---I want to make it crystal clear that I'm not saying that he will be bad this year. He can be great--and frankly I hope that he's great. However--I personally don't like his value where he is going---and will not be owning any shares of him because of this. Lets not forget that just before the pre-season started this year--his own teammate (Charles Simms) was going ahead of him in many early drafts. His value has literally skyrocketed mainly due to a few series in 3 pre-season games.

C'mon man. You're going to cherry pick a player at a different position in one of those two seasons, who is only notable because of a statistical aberration? Mike Evans caught 57% of his team's passing TDs on only 23% of the targets. I don't even think Calvin has ever caught 50% of his team's TDs at any point. Generally speaking, 25%-33% is elite. Anyway, that anomaly has nothing to do with the running game. As I've said before, Martin is an average starting NFL RB. Situation has everything to do with his success - he's not going to create on his own. Which is about what you should expect out of a RB in the 4th round. His situation the last two years has been terrible and his production should've been expected to be horrible even if he'd actually been healthy (which he was not).

Despite the horrible offense in 2013, he was still going to be productive if he had not gotten injured. He was averaging 93.6 yards per game through his five healthy games that year. He wasn't going to justify his ADP, but he was probably going to finish in the RB2 range,where he's being drafted now (he was RB18 through week 6, despite having a week 5 bye, that year despite only 1 TD). Last year he was injured twice and all but excluded from the passing game.

To hold his ADP against him in previous seasons is laughable. If he was drafted as RB2 or RB200 last year, it would have no bearing on his value this year.

You still seem to be avoiding the issue of offensive coordinator, choosing instead to focus on his previous ADP, some strange claim of inconsistency, his teammates, and the reason for his current ADP rise. Sims was being drafted ahead of him because people thought Sims was going to be the starter It's not complicated. When Lovie Smith declared Martin the starter, his ADP started to go up. The preseason has aided this rise, but if you look at FF calculator, his ADP has been steadily rising since June 8th (way before the preseason). He had moved from 10.12 on 6/8 to 6.01 before his 5/19/0, 0 rec first preseason game. He second preseason game actually had some notable stats, but he was already in the 5th round.

So to say his value "literally" sky rocketed due to 3 preseason games could not be more false and misleading. His value figuratively sky rocketed due to being named the starter by his head coach and receiving high praise from his new offensive coordinator. His value literally increased by about a round due at least in part to how good he has looked in the preseason.

 

[Jack White]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

This is exactly why I drafted him at 6.12. I have no intention of starting him.

 

[ponchsox]

If Evans doesn't go, Martin is going to be fed with a lot of touches in this game against a horrid run defense. If he's going to bounce back this year, week one will be a good indictator.

 

[rocketsauce]

Feel like I'm starting Martin in every league and DFS lineup this week. All in.

 

[The General]

It's a great matchup for the little guy. If he puts up a 15 carry / 45 yard game then we have been duped again.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Bought him as a rookie. Faded him as a top 5 pick his 2nd year. Avoided him last year. Been a big buyer this year.

Back on the Hamster wheel.

 

[FF Ninja]

Bought him as a rookie. Faded him as a top 5 pick his 2nd year. Avoided him last year. Been a big buyer this year.

Back on the Hamster wheel.

What a suspiciously perfect year-to-year assessment of him. This is my first year on the hamster wheel. I avoided him all three years. I thought Schiano's first year would look like his second year actually did. It was apparently a mirage. I'm not a Lovie fan, but I'll buy into Dirk Koetter.

 

[(HULK)]

I was on him his rookie year too. And his 2nd year, oops. Not last year. Back again this year.

I don't see how that is relevant though

 

[Kenny Powers]

I was on him his rookie year too. And his 2nd year, oops. Not last year. Back again this year.

I don't see how that is relevant though

Because it seems like despite all that he's shown this preseason that he is back, there are plenty of people still avoiding him, likely due to Martin screwing them over in 2013 or 2014, or both years.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith endorsed Doug Martin as his starter while adding "I don't see any reason why we won't be able to establish a run game this season."

The Bucs didn't have enough confidence in Martin to pick up his fifth-year option but after a strong preseason, they're starting to change their tune. So are fantasy owners. His ADP has climbed into the fourth round after beginning the summer as a late sixth-rounder. If Martin stays healthy, a big if given how fragile he's been the last two seasons, he should be in the RB2 conversation.

Source: Scott Smith on Twitter

Sep 10 - 4:08 PM

 

[Quez]

I think Martin will have a great game vs Tennessee. They will give him the bulk of the carries and he will look like a true #1.

I expect a reality check after week 1 when he faces tougher defenses. He can't block, and will be a liability to Jameis. They will have Sims in way more than week 1.

 

[The General]

I think Martin will have a great game vs Tennessee. They will give him the bulk of the carries and he will look like a true #1.

I expect a reality check after week 1 when he faces tougher defenses. He can't block, and will be a liability to Jameis. They will have Sims in way more than week 1.

Agreed. If he doesn't have a decent game in this one then it is probably going to be another long year of watching him get 5 points a game.

 

[Quez]

The Bucs offensive line isn't great, but they aren't as bad as people think. Run blocking is their strength.

 

[Wrigley]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

This is exactly why I drafted him at 6.12. I have no intention of starting him.

6.10 as my third RB

Starting this week with confidence(of course L Bell isn't playing)

 

[Jack White]

I think Martin will have a great game vs Tennessee. They will give him the bulk of the carries and he will look like a true #1.

I expect a reality check after week 1 when he faces tougher defenses. He can't block, and will be a liability to Jameis. They will have Sims in way more than week 1.

I hope you're right because I intend to shop him.

 

[renesauz]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

Spending a sixth on a "bench player" is just silly

 

[fred_1_15301]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

Spending a sixth on a "bench player" is just silly

Seriously wtf

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

Spending a sixth on a "bench player" is just silly

Not really.

Filling out a lineup never works the way you draw it up. Realistically, you may make it through 6 rounds without drafting a bust once in your life, so that filled out lineup is always going to have holes. Of your first 6 picks, one, two, three, or even four of them are going to be busts. Those bench players will be starters sooner rather than later, and if not can easily be traded to fill any holes in your lineup if he's good.

If there is a good player, take him. Forcing a WR3 pick over what you believe to be a better player just because you have a WR3 spot in your lineup often just leaves you with a hole at both WR3 AND RB2 after the RB2 you drafted earlier falls on his face.

The NFL is crazytown. Drafting two RBs in the first five rounds in no way means that you're going to have two startable RBs come week 3.

 

[ponchsox]

It would sure be nice if this guy produces and is the bell cow all season.

 

[Jack White]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

Spending a sixth on a "bench player" is just silly

Seriously wtf

why, do you guys draft a complete lineup before you take any depth at the Flex positions?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The Bucs offensive line isn't great, but they aren't as bad as people think. Run blocking is their strength.

This is what ive observed. Winston is a good fit if he can do what his coaches tell him to (run game, play action, scramble, throw tbe ball away). Its the seahawks recipe with much better receiving talent.

 

[cstu]

He's back.

 

[BobbyLayne]

He's back.

He's looked really good today

 

[Darryl Talley]

He had 4/10 and they were down 21-0 and I thought "oh boy, time to sell"

 

[renesauz]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

Spending a sixth on a "bench player" is just silly

Not really.

Filling out a lineup never works the way you draw it up. Realistically, you may make it through 6 rounds without drafting a bust once in your life, so that filled out lineup is always going to have holes. Of your first 6 picks, one, two, three, or even four of them are going to be busts. Those bench players will be starters sooner rather than later, and if not can easily be traded to fill any holes in your lineup if he's good.

If there is a good player, take him. Forcing a WR3 pick over what you believe to be a better player just because you have a WR3 spot in your lineup often just leaves you with a hole at both WR3 AND RB2 after the RB2 you drafted earlier falls on his face.

The NFL is crazytown. Drafting two RBs in the first five rounds in no way means that you're going to have two startable RBs come week 3.

MIssed my point entirely, or rather....you're helping to MAKE my point.

You don't spend a sixth round pick on a player PLANNING for him to be a "bench player". At worst the expectation in the sixth is a flex player.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Can't say that I'm all that surprised by his week 1 output.

 

[FF Ninja]

Can't say that I'm all that surprised by his week 1 output.

Eh, overall I think it was a good sign. I didn't watch the game, but hard to complain about 4.7 ypc and his long run was only 14 so it's not like one busted play inflated his stats. I was checking the box score and he dominated RB touches through the first 3 quarters. His usage was pretty similar to Lamar Miller/CJ Anderon whose games were actually close. Would've been nice to see him get a few more receptions, though.

 

[Cold Dead Hands]

Can't say that I'm all that surprised by his week 1 output.

Eh, overall I think it was a good sign. I didn't watch the game, but hard to complain about 4.7 ypc and his long run was only 14 so it's not like one busted play inflated his stats. I was checking the box score and he dominated RB touches through the first 3 quarters. His usage was pretty similar to Lamar Miller/CJ Anderon whose games were actually close. Would've been nice to see him get a few more receptions, though.

Titans D is no joke.

 

[Grahamburn]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

 

[FF Ninja]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

I think there is another way to look at the statement above...first off, I would not agree with the statement bolded above. They were down 21-0 by the end of the 1st quarter. And were down 28 at halftime. At some point, you recognize the day is done and you pull a guy. But in through the first 2.5 quarters, he dominated RB snaps. WR/TE & RB usage feels like an apples to oranges comparison.

The Martin I saw yesterday ran hard with some nice moves to gain extra yards in traffic. Sure - if the Bucs lose every game 42-14...Martin is going to be unproductive. The Bucs don't look good at all but I don't think they are historically bad...they play in a weak division, and I know the NFC South schedule is weak. So I think they still stand a shot at putting up 5-6 wins.

Certainly if you had some optimistic thoughts on Martin coming into the TEN game, you were sorely disappointed. But if you saw Martin, I think you'd feel like this was a guy who at least looks like has the ability to be an impact player again.

 

[FF Ninja]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

Are you the same guy that was spouting all that nonsense earlier? I'm not gonna lie, I did end up taking Ivory over Martin when I had the choice in later drafts but Martin was still one of the best options at his ADP. He was roughly as good/reliable in week 1 as CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, TJ Yeldon, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and probably a handful of other guys drafted above him.

Stop wasting your breath talking about the past 2 years. He was injured and in a totally different offense. He's got a different QB, offensive coordinator, and offensive line this year. Despite his team getting crushed 21-0 halfway through the first quarter, he still put up over 50 yards on the ground. I don't know why you say he got pulled relatively early. I'd have pulled my starting RB much earlier than they did. He was still playing in the third quarter of a game that was over. The Bucs may not be good, but all the games won't be like this one.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

Are you the same guy that was spouting all that nonsense earlier? I'm not gonna lie, I did end up taking Ivory over Martin when I had the choice in later drafts but Martin was still one of the best options at his ADP. He was roughly as good/reliable in week 1 as CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, TJ Yeldon, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and probably a handful of other guys drafted above him.

Stop wasting your breath talking about the past 2 years. He was injured and in a totally different offense. He's got a different QB, offensive coordinator, and offensive line this year. Despite his team getting crushed 21-0 halfway through the first quarter, he still put up over 50 yards on the ground. I don't know why you say he got pulled relatively early. I'd have pulled my starting RB much earlier than they did. He was still playing in the third quarter of a game that was over. The Bucs may not be good, but all the games won't be like this one.

Ignore the past two years? Fantasy Football is a statistics based game. To ignore two years of raw data is quite possibly the most absurd thing that I have heard. If a guy is good enough to play on a football field--he's good enough to produce. Martin didn't produce. That is not me making stuff up or wasting my breath--it's facts. A new coordinator doesn't insure that a player that has not produced over 2 seasons will magically become some fantasy stud. One can "hypothesize" that it can help Martin's production--but to ignore 2 years of actual stats based on a theory/hypothesis is ridiculous. A "bell cow" back getting pulled in the middle of the third quarter--while every other offensive player of value stays in the game is not a positive sign. I understand that he looks good on his runs--and he's hitting the holes well--but his raw talent doesn't make him a fantasy stud. Sammy Watkins is an absolute freak--but his fantasy situation makes him a boom or bust low end wr2--high end wr3. Martin is no different. He's a talented player in a very bad situation. He will have plenty of games where he explodes to give his owners hope-but he'll have plenty of 6 fantasy point games just like he had the past 2 years. The difference between you and I is that I am actually being realistic about his situation. I have always admitted that he has good games in him. You on the other hand make every excuse for his lack of production and are more motivated to try to prove me wrong than you are to actually assess him in an unbiased way.

 

[jbz]

Game script took him out of the game plan pretty early. But as was pointed out, majority of the rest of the starters were in till the end....except Martin. Was hoping for a garbage time TD or yardage. That being said, when the game wasn't completely out of hand, he looked good IMO. Got stuffed a bit on a 4th and 1 situation. Initially got it, but replay changed the spot and it went really South from there.

 

[ponchsox]

Doug looks great but I'm worried this team will be playing from behind a lot.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Got him in the 6th, he was too good to pass up there. He's a bench player for me but potential trade bait to a RB starved team if he gets off to a good start.

Spending a sixth on a "bench player" is just silly

Not really.

Filling out a lineup never works the way you draw it up. Realistically, you may make it through 6 rounds without drafting a bust once in your life, so that filled out lineup is always going to have holes. Of your first 6 picks, one, two, three, or even four of them are going to be busts. Those bench players will be starters sooner rather than later, and if not can easily be traded to fill any holes in your lineup if he's good.

If there is a good player, take him. Forcing a WR3 pick over what you believe to be a better player just because you have a WR3 spot in your lineup often just leaves you with a hole at both WR3 AND RB2 after the RB2 you drafted earlier falls on his face.

The NFL is crazytown. Drafting two RBs in the first five rounds in no way means that you're going to have two startable RBs come week 3.

MIssed my point entirely, or rather....you're helping to MAKE my point.

You don't spend a sixth round pick on a player PLANNING for him to be a "bench player". At worst the expectation in the sixth is a flex player.

"Expectations" could not matter less. You don't pass on a player you believe to be better to fill out a lineup spot. It's horrible strategy yet it's something that the vast majority of FFers do constantly. Regardless, probably a topic for a different thread.

 

[Quez]

Lovie was saying positive things about the rookie Marpet in run blocking. Him & ASJ were the only 2 bright spots.

 

[thecardiackid]

glad to hear some optimism here as I haven't seen the game. hopefully once Winston settles down the run game will improve.

 

[FF Ninja]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

Are you the same guy that was spouting all that nonsense earlier? I'm not gonna lie, I did end up taking Ivory over Martin when I had the choice in later drafts but Martin was still one of the best options at his ADP. He was roughly as good/reliable in week 1 as CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, TJ Yeldon, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and probably a handful of other guys drafted above him.

Stop wasting your breath talking about the past 2 years. He was injured and in a totally different offense. He's got a different QB, offensive coordinator, and offensive line this year. Despite his team getting crushed 21-0 halfway through the first quarter, he still put up over 50 yards on the ground. I don't know why you say he got pulled relatively early. I'd have pulled my starting RB much earlier than they did. He was still playing in the third quarter of a game that was over. The Bucs may not be good, but all the games won't be like this one.

Ignore the past two years? Fantasy Football is a statistics based game. To ignore two years of raw data is quite possibly the most absurd thing that I have heard. If a guy is good enough to play on a football field--he's good enough to produce. Martin didn't produce. That is not me making stuff up or wasting my breath--it's facts. A new coordinator doesn't insure that a player that has not produced over 2 seasons will magically become some fantasy stud. One can "hypothesize" that it can help Martin's production--but to ignore 2 years of actual stats based on a theory/hypothesis is ridiculous. A "bell cow" back getting pulled in the middle of the third quarter--while every other offensive player of value stays in the game is not a positive sign. I understand that he looks good on his runs--and he's hitting the holes well--but his raw talent doesn't make him a fantasy stud. Sammy Watkins is an absolute freak--but his fantasy situation makes him a boom or bust low end wr2--high end wr3. Martin is no different. He's a talented player in a very bad situation. He will have plenty of games where he explodes to give his owners hope-but he'll have plenty of 6 fantasy point games just like he had the past 2 years. The difference between you and I is that I am actually being realistic about his situation. I have always admitted that he has good games in him. You on the other hand make every excuse for his lack of production and are more motivated to try to prove me wrong than you are to actually assess him in an unbiased way.

You don't have a clue what you are talking about. Trying to use stats that are 1) from a different offense and 2) when the player was hurt is not a useful exercise. I mean, look at Blount. He was awesome his rookie year when the offense was moving the ball and his stats took a nose dive in year 2. And he was actually healthy in both years! When you are looking at fantasy football you have to look beyond the player to some degree. Situation and health are every bit as important as talent unless you are talking about an elite talent. As I've said many times before, Doug is not elite. He's an average starting RB in the NFL. His situation is everything for his FF production. So analyzing his PPG numbers while on a dumpster fire of a team and while he's injured is just dumb. You should be looking at how Koetter uses his RBs and what kind of production he gets. But look, if you want to dwell in the past, go ahead and lose all your leagues. Drafting based off of stats from the year before never won anybody a league. The people who win are the people who identify change and adjust accordingly.

That's the actual difference between you and me. You seem to think he's more talented than I do, but you keep dwelling on his production in a different system. I'm not making excuses for him. I don't own him in dynasty. I'm simply trying to look ahead while you are living in the past.

The key to his success this year is Winston. If he can move the ball, Doug is going to have a good year. If Winston turns the ball over and stalls drives, then Doug is going to be a low end RB2 at best. The secondary means to his success will be the defense.

One last topic: playing while the game is out of hand. It is actually totally normal for the RB to come out and the WRs to stay in. If you haven't noticed this in the past, that's on you. This is not unique to Martin. RB takes the most wear and tear in a game. When they are primarily being used to block and catch dump offs in a blow out, might as well throw the 3rd down guy in there.

 

[Kenny Powers]

The Bucs are not going to be good but I dont think they'll get blown out this bad more than a few more times this year. Winston's INTs and fumbles just compounded the blowout and took away from scoring chances for Martin as well. Also, maybe Mariota breaks into the NFL with a better rookie season than anyone expected and TB had it tougher than any other team this year as there wasnt any NFL gametape really yet on Mariota before week 1.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

Are you the same guy that was spouting all that nonsense earlier? I'm not gonna lie, I did end up taking Ivory over Martin when I had the choice in later drafts but Martin was still one of the best options at his ADP. He was roughly as good/reliable in week 1 as CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, TJ Yeldon, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and probably a handful of other guys drafted above him.

Stop wasting your breath talking about the past 2 years. He was injured and in a totally different offense. He's got a different QB, offensive coordinator, and offensive line this year. Despite his team getting crushed 21-0 halfway through the first quarter, he still put up over 50 yards on the ground. I don't know why you say he got pulled relatively early. I'd have pulled my starting RB much earlier than they did. He was still playing in the third quarter of a game that was over. The Bucs may not be good, but all the games won't be like this one.

Ignore the past two years? Fantasy Football is a statistics based game. To ignore two years of raw data is quite possibly the most absurd thing that I have heard. If a guy is good enough to play on a football field--he's good enough to produce. Martin didn't produce. That is not me making stuff up or wasting my breath--it's facts. A new coordinator doesn't insure that a player that has not produced over 2 seasons will magically become some fantasy stud. One can "hypothesize" that it can help Martin's production--but to ignore 2 years of actual stats based on a theory/hypothesis is ridiculous. A "bell cow" back getting pulled in the middle of the third quarter--while every other offensive player of value stays in the game is not a positive sign. I understand that he looks good on his runs--and he's hitting the holes well--but his raw talent doesn't make him a fantasy stud. Sammy Watkins is an absolute freak--but his fantasy situation makes him a boom or bust low end wr2--high end wr3. Martin is no different. He's a talented player in a very bad situation. He will have plenty of games where he explodes to give his owners hope-but he'll have plenty of 6 fantasy point games just like he had the past 2 years. The difference between you and I is that I am actually being realistic about his situation. I have always admitted that he has good games in him. You on the other hand make every excuse for his lack of production and are more motivated to try to prove me wrong than you are to actually assess him in an unbiased way.

You don't have a clue what you are talking about. Trying to use stats that are 1) from a different offense and 2) when the player was hurt is not a useful exercise. I mean, look at Blount. He was awesome his rookie year when the offense was moving the ball and his stats took a nose dive in year 2. And he was actually healthy in both years! When you are looking at fantasy football you have to look beyond the player to some degree. Situation and health are every bit as important as talent unless you are talking about an elite talent. As I've said many times before, Doug is not elite. He's an average starting RB in the NFL. His situation is everything for his FF production. So analyzing his PPG numbers while on a dumpster fire of a team and while he's injured is just dumb. You should be looking at how Koetter uses his RBs and what kind of production he gets. But look, if you want to dwell in the past, go ahead and lose all your leagues. Drafting based off of stats from the year before never won anybody a league. The people who win are the people who identify change and adjust accordingly.

That's the actual difference between you and me. You seem to think he's more talented than I do, but you keep dwelling on his production in a different system. I'm not making excuses for him. I don't own him in dynasty. I'm simply trying to look ahead while you are living in the past.

The key to his success this year is Winston. If he can move the ball, Doug is going to have a good year. If Winston turns the ball over and stalls drives, then Doug is going to be a low end RB2 at best. The secondary means to his success will be the defense.

One last topic: playing while the game is out of hand. It is actually totally normal for the RB to come out and the WRs to stay in. If you haven't noticed this in the past, that's on you. This is not unique to Martin. RB takes the most wear and tear in a game. When they are primarily being used to block and catch dump offs in a blow out, might as well throw the 3rd down guy in there.

In all due respect---I think you are completely out of line. First of all--there is no telling exactly how bad and when a football player is "hurt". If a player misses a game--then yes--you can assume he's hurt. However--if a player is healthy enough to play in a game--his stats count--and they mean something. To throw away two years of stats in games that he played in under the guise that he played "hurt" or under a different coaching staff is no different than an ostrich putting its head into the sand. Yes situation does play a factor--but you are going to the extremes of treating Martin as if the past two years didn't exist. If you read every one your posts and arguments--each point that you make is an excuse. First he was unhealthy. Second, he had coaches and coordinators that were not compatible with his game. Third, the game flow wasn't in his favor. Fourth, his team and teammates need to move the ball for him to be productive...etc. In your world--as long as each and every one of these stars line up exactly right (his health, his coaches, his team, the game flow of each game)--then he can and will be a great fantasy player. The reality of the sports world and the fantasy world is unpredictability. It's very rare that things end up matching up to our expectations perfectly. If every star needs to line up for a player to be productive--that is not an argument for that player--it's an argument against that player.

So to get back to the differences between you and I--the difference is that I look at things regarding Martin objectively while you look at things optimistically. I fully agree with you that if every star lines up perfect for him that we will have great games. That's true for EVERY fantasy player. The objective point of view is to evaluate a player with the knowledge that more often than not--things don't end up being perfect. Martin has proven that when things aren't perfect for him--he doesn't produce all that well. I expect him to have some big games this year when things do line up perfectly. Is that clear enough for you?

 

[FF Ninja]

They rested him once it was out of hand. He looked fantastic and actually had a pair of 10+ yard runs taken back by penalty. Hopefully they don't get slaughtered like that every week.

Good to know. Thanks for pointing that out.

My point with Martin is that he's not a trustable fantasy player. He is probably very talented--I won't argue there---but the very moment that you feel like you can count on him for decent fantasy production--he disappoints. For the last two seasons--he averaged right around 6-7 fantasy points per game in ppr formats--and what does he do week 1--gets around the same. The argument for him this season was that he was considered the three down "bell cow" back for the team--and the moment his team goes down--they pull him out. If I remember right--I do believe that VJax and Jenkins played the entire game. This team will be down a lot in a lot of games--him getting pulled relatively early is not a good sign. Don't get me wrong---I fully intend to see him have a few great games this season---but trusting which ones they will be is the hard part. Before yesterday---I guarantee you that Martin owners were very exicted about starting him against Tennessee. Many of his owners will probably have second thoughts about starting him week 2 or 3--and he'll probably blow up on peoples benches. With that being said--I'm not trying to be a hater--I do wish all Martin owners that he does produce and prove me wrong.

Are you the same guy that was spouting all that nonsense earlier? I'm not gonna lie, I did end up taking Ivory over Martin when I had the choice in later drafts but Martin was still one of the best options at his ADP. He was roughly as good/reliable in week 1 as CJ Anderson, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, TJ Yeldon, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and probably a handful of other guys drafted above him.

Stop wasting your breath talking about the past 2 years. He was injured and in a totally different offense. He's got a different QB, offensive coordinator, and offensive line this year. Despite his team getting crushed 21-0 halfway through the first quarter, he still put up over 50 yards on the ground. I don't know why you say he got pulled relatively early. I'd have pulled my starting RB much earlier than they did. He was still playing in the third quarter of a game that was over. The Bucs may not be good, but all the games won't be like this one.

Ignore the past two years? Fantasy Football is a statistics based game. To ignore two years of raw data is quite possibly the most absurd thing that I have heard. If a guy is good enough to play on a football field--he's good enough to produce. Martin didn't produce. That is not me making stuff up or wasting my breath--it's facts. A new coordinator doesn't insure that a player that has not produced over 2 seasons will magically become some fantasy stud. One can "hypothesize" that it can help Martin's production--but to ignore 2 years of actual stats based on a theory/hypothesis is ridiculous. A "bell cow" back getting pulled in the middle of the third quarter--while every other offensive player of value stays in the game is not a positive sign. I understand that he looks good on his runs--and he's hitting the holes well--but his raw talent doesn't make him a fantasy stud. Sammy Watkins is an absolute freak--but his fantasy situation makes him a boom or bust low end wr2--high end wr3. Martin is no different. He's a talented player in a very bad situation. He will have plenty of games where he explodes to give his owners hope-but he'll have plenty of 6 fantasy point games just like he had the past 2 years. The difference between you and I is that I am actually being realistic about his situation. I have always admitted that he has good games in him. You on the other hand make every excuse for his lack of production and are more motivated to try to prove me wrong than you are to actually assess him in an unbiased way.

You don't have a clue what you are talking about. Trying to use stats that are 1) from a different offense and 2) when the player was hurt is not a useful exercise. I mean, look at Blount. He was awesome his rookie year when the offense was moving the ball and his stats took a nose dive in year 2. And he was actually healthy in both years! When you are looking at fantasy football you have to look beyond the player to some degree. Situation and health are every bit as important as talent unless you are talking about an elite talent. As I've said many times before, Doug is not elite. He's an average starting RB in the NFL. His situation is everything for his FF production. So analyzing his PPG numbers while on a dumpster fire of a team and while he's injured is just dumb. You should be looking at how Koetter uses his RBs and what kind of production he gets. But look, if you want to dwell in the past, go ahead and lose all your leagues. Drafting based off of stats from the year before never won anybody a league. The people who win are the people who identify change and adjust accordingly.

That's the actual difference between you and me. You seem to think he's more talented than I do, but you keep dwelling on his production in a different system. I'm not making excuses for him. I don't own him in dynasty. I'm simply trying to look ahead while you are living in the past.

The key to his success this year is Winston. If he can move the ball, Doug is going to have a good year. If Winston turns the ball over and stalls drives, then Doug is going to be a low end RB2 at best. The secondary means to his success will be the defense.

One last topic: playing while the game is out of hand. It is actually totally normal for the RB to come out and the WRs to stay in. If you haven't noticed this in the past, that's on you. This is not unique to Martin. RB takes the most wear and tear in a game. When they are primarily being used to block and catch dump offs in a blow out, might as well throw the 3rd down guy in there.

In all due respect---I think you are completely out of line. First of all--there is no telling exactly how bad and when a football player is "hurt". If a player misses a game--then yes--you can assume he's hurt. However--if a player is healthy enough to play in a game--his stats count--and they mean something. To throw away two years of stats in games that he played in under the guise that he played "hurt" or under a different coaching staff is no different than an ostrich putting its head into the sand. Yes situation does play a factor--but you are going to the extremes of treating Martin as if the past two years didn't exist. If you read every one your posts and arguments--each point that you make is an excuse. First he was unhealthy. Second, he had coaches and coordinators that were not compatible with his game. Third, the game flow wasn't in his favor. Fourth, his team and teammates need to move the ball for him to be productive...etc. In your world--as long as each and every one of these stars line up exactly right (his health, his coaches, his team, the game flow of each game)--then he can and will be a great fantasy player. The reality of the sports world and the fantasy world is unpredictability. It's very rare that things end up matching up to our expectations perfectly. If every star needs to line up for a player to be productive--that is not an argument for that player--it's an argument against that player.

So to get back to the differences between you and I--the difference is that I look at things regarding Martin objectively while you look at things optimistically. I fully agree with you that if every star lines up perfect for him that we will have great games. That's true for EVERY fantasy player. The objective point of view is to evaluate a player with the knowledge that more often than not--things don't end up being perfect. Martin has proven that when things aren't perfect for him--he doesn't produce all that well. I expect him to have some big games this year when things do line up perfectly. Is that clear enough for you?

Why would I make excuses for a player I barely have any stock in? I didn't have him on any teams (actually, maybe one free league... a PDSL or Anarchy but I don't care about it) when I wrote most of what I wrote and I only ended up with him on one active roster. You are the one harping on pointless items from the past while I try to look forward. You aren't being objective at all. You hold a bunch of prejudices against him and only cite the past two years as to why to avoid him. You continue to totally ignore ADP as a factor and keep whining about consistency like that is a realistic expectation at that point in the draft.

If everything lines up just right then Martin is an RB1. I'm not counting on that. I simply think he'll get the workload in a halfway decent offense to outperform his ADP. I avoided him in the past due to the fact I think he's a middle tier starting RB talent and the situations he was in were set up for failure. So these were things I anticipated causing a failure and they did. I'm not making excuses in hindsight. Now I'm simply reacting to change. I think the new offense and his discounted ADP have finally made him a viable fantasy play.

You've brought nothing useful to this conversation, so I don't know why we're still talking.

For Doug Martin owners, here's a blurb from Matt Waldman's gut check article:

The Buccaneers had 12 penalties against the Titans and most of them were illegal motion or holding fouls. At least 4-5 of these calls nullified good runs from Doug Martin.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I saw Martin play last year in the Dome, I thought he ran fine, lots of burst and energy, I don't think he's the problem.

 

[mrfrood]

Nice positive article about Doug's game on Sunday.

http://www.buccaneer...82-3d2602168d2a

 

[Grahamburn]

Nice positive article about Doug's game on Sunday.

http://www.buccaneer...82-3d2602168d2a

Had they not been blown out he would have had a big game.