RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

[TheDirtyWord]

So if he continues to see that amount of work, I think it's tough to be disappointed in his output. He's on pace for 1300+ YFS.

And four touchdowns. That's pretty bad.But that's not even the problem. Unless you're playing best ball or total points or something, his stats are bad news. Nobody should want a guy who puts up rb2 numbers. If you start him every week, you get bad numbers. Most people chase points, which is much worse.

Consider this - Alfred blue was only startable for three weeks. He had 192 yards and a td. In those same three weeks, Martin had 186 yards, no td. Two weeks of Thomas Rawls - 151 yards.

And these aren't the more successful guys. Karlos Williams, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, David Johnson, duke Johnson, matt Jones, even Benny Cunningham were all spark plugs who were better in your lineup than guys like Martin.

Which means that Martin is really just the kind of guy you want in your lineup when you don't have a better option available. Why draft or own a guy like that in the first place? Maybe if you've got a really short bench, but even then you can find guys like Martin on waivers.

These guys are roster poison. You use a relatively early pick on them knowing they don't have huge upside, you chase points with them, you start them over scrub backups who outscore them, and when you look at the stats they look like they're top 20 guys. I can see keeping one around if you need that emergency guy, but right now you can probably trade him for something more valuable than a spot starter.

Obviously, the better teams in FF have better drafts than the ones struggling. Chris Ivory has represented better draft value than Doug Martin and they were similarly graded coming into this year. Those teams that find great value in Rounds 4-7 generally set the pace.

But at the same time, to this point, there hasn't been much difference between Carlos Hyde and Martin, has there?

Touches - Martin (74), Hyde (70)

YFS - Martin (341), Hyde (326)

TD - Martin (1), Hyde (2)

Good Games/Bad Games - Both have a 1:3 ratio

...yet Hyde was seen as an instant RB1 after his Week 1 breakout. And that's not to say he's not that guy. It's just that the last three weeks have seen him not perform well or consistently. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hyde come through with another big game in the next 1-2 weeks...same as Martin. He could also lay eggs, same as Martin.

Bottomline is that if on the expectation scale, there are three categories you can perform to; Exceed, At, Below...I think it's tough to argue that Martin is performing below expectations and he may be set-up to exceed them...obviously a lot of season to be played still.

 

[bostonfred]

I think we knew what Martin was headed into this season, though. A guy who will have some good games mixed in with some stinkers. He had a good game in the preseason and people thought it meant something had changed, but it really didn't - he has always flashed talent, he just needs to be more consistent.

Hyde might be better, might be worse. We still don't know. But at the time he was more of an upside play because he was talented, they were going to use him and we didn't know much more except that the team had a ton of turnover, mostly bad, and played in a tough division. That's a lot to overcome, too, but at least the unknown meant that we didn't know he would be mediocre. With Martin, you were hoping he'd somehow become something he wasn't on a team with just as many negative indicators.

 

[Tau837]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

 

[JuniorNB]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

Are you starting Duke over Martin this week?

 

[Tau837]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

Are you starting Duke over Martin this week?

No, I just used a name of a hot waiver pickup this week. I should have just said enter next RBBC back.

 

[bostonfred]

I can't speak for jwb, but I think if you have duke and Martin and only one spot in your lineup for them, try to trade Martin. If that leaves you starting duke, that's fine. I don't feel confident that one is better than the other this week, but duke has significantly more upside if his role increases.

 

[Koya]

I think we knew what Martin was headed into this season, though. A guy who will have some good games mixed in with some stinkers. He had a good game in the preseason and people thought it meant something had changed, but it really didn't - he has always flashed talent, he just needs to be more consistent.

Hyde might be better, might be worse. We still don't know. But at the time he was more of an upside play because he was talented, they were going to use him and we didn't know much more except that the team had a ton of turnover, mostly bad, and played in a tough division. That's a lot to overcome, too, but at least the unknown meant that we didn't know he would be mediocre. With Martin, you were hoping he'd somehow become something he wasn't on a team with just as many negative indicators.

Martin, going into the season and now is in the second or third usage tier.... early downs, some passing situations though Sim has that role, but Martin has goal line.

He's an above average runner... good balance, some vision, usually doesnt lose yardage unless the line blows up, but doesnt have great speed.

That is a type of back that, with said role, can do really well on a good offense, especially if he is in most of the time for both short yardage and in the red zone. Think J. Hill from a role perspective, with a far more talented guy who is the passing down back.

IF Tampa can be leading some games and scoring enough along the way, Martin rises a lot with that ship. Hes a good, solid runner with a good, not great role. But its the role that can see a 5 game stretch with 5-7 TDs on a good offense. And one that can produce ok NFL but not so great fantasy lines of 50-100 yrds rushing, a catch or two and nothing

 

[Koya]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

Are you starting Duke over Martin this week?

No, I just used a name of a hot waiver pickup this week. I should have just said enter next RBBC back.

As of now I have Martin in over Duke, facing a crappy Jax team.

Would love for Duke to get more early down work, but very risky in his own right until we see either that, or Geo B. skills and targets over an extended period, its another matchup play.

FWIW, had Yeldon and Dukw both over Martin this past week.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

So you mention perception and I think that's the key. I don't really know who is more talented between Martin/Hyde. Fact is Martin was a 1st round pick in his own right. But Hyde really hasn't burned anybody yet. He's in Year 2. Martin is in Year 4, and Year 2/3 were most definitely subpar.

But BF made mention that Hyde was the upside play because of his talent and I would disagree somewhat with that. Talent was a part of the equation but opportunity was just as big if not bigger factor in that perception. Hyde had the same talent level last year but was Goreblocked.

But perception/hope essentially have emotional components...and I think it's fair to say that the lead up to this moment we're debating includes much more negative emotion and feelings around who Doug Martin is than Carlos Hyde. And IMO, that's the difference in their value.

 

[JuniorNB]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

Are you starting Duke over Martin this week?

No, I just used a name of a hot waiver pickup this week. I should have just said enter next RBBC back.

You said you started Rawls over Martin this past week. What are you doing with him this week? Against Jacksonville? It's him or Demarco Murray for me.

 

[JuniorNB]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

The real questions here are these:

1. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to RBs drafted around him or later?

2. How good is Martin's performance above in comparison to playing lineup RBBC, whether with your own drafted players or via the waiver wire, or both?

Someone already made a good point that Rawls is an example of a guy who was likely started for the first time in week 4, and he essentially matched Martin's worst performance. He is just one example of how RBBC can burn owners. To be sure, there are counterexamples of great RBBC success. So IMO what should be the focus is expected RBBC, not the outliers.


The real issue could be one of perception. I picked up and started Rawls in week 4 and left Martin on my bench. Whatever analysis I might have considered, my expectations for Rawls were higher than for Martin, so I felt better taking the RBBC approach of plugging in a waiver pickup. Turns out my expectations were wrong, but in the aftermath it hasn't elevated my opinion of Martin so much as it has dropped my expectations for Rawls. Enter Duke Johnson...

So you mention perception and I think that's the key. I don't really know who is more talented between Martin/Hyde. Fact is Martin was a 1st round pick in his own right. But Hyde really hasn't burned anybody yet. He's in Year 2. Martin is in Year 4, and Year 2/3 were most definitely subpar.

But BF made mention that Hyde was the upside play because of his talent and I would disagree somewhat with that. Talent was a part of the equation but opportunity was just as big if not bigger factor in that perception. Hyde had the same talent level last year but was Goreblocked.

But perception/hope essentially have emotional components...and I think it's fair to say that the lead up to this moment we're debating includes much more negative emotion and feelings around who Doug Martin is than Carlos Hyde. And IMO, that's the difference in their value.

In a trade, I'm sure Hyde would get more in return. People still remember 2013 and 2014. And forget about 2012. I think Martin owners should be holding. He doesn't really have much trade value with one touchdown. Martin is currently 8th in the NFL in rushing yards. If he had an extra one yard TD plunge in there, his entire season would look different. But right now, his value to his owner is worth way more than his value in a trade.

 

[drm1125]

I traded Martin for Moncrief. I may have not gotten enough value for him but I really needed a decent WR and he's my 5th RB. My other WRs are Cooks, Benjamin, and R. Randle and thought Moncrief was enough of an upgrade to do the deal.

 

[Grahamburn]

If he had an extra one yard TD plunge in there, his entire season would look different.

So true. Had Winston not audibled from the 1 against NO everyone would be singing a different tune.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

Is this really that much of an outlier? 6 of the current top 8 scoring fantasy RBs have had at least one week where they were a fantasy RB4 or worse. If your name isn't Jamal Charles or Le'Veon Bell you're probably going to have some down weeks quite a few times throughout the year.

My dumb ### has been starting Jonathan Stewart him all year, where every week is a down week. Time to get Martin in there and ride out the bad weeks with the good, I think.

 

[JuniorNB]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

Is this really that much of an outlier? 6 of the current top 8 scoring fantasy RBs have had at least one week where they were a fantasy RB4 or worse. If your name isn't Jamal Charles or Le'Veon Bell you're probably going to have some down weeks quite a few times throughout the year.

My dumb ### has been starting Jonathan Stewart him all year, where every week is a down week. Time to get Martin in there and ride out the bad weeks with the good, I think.

There are very few sure things anymore at running back. Lamar MIller, Demarco Murray, Jeremy Hill, and CJ Anderson are all top ten RB picks who have been major headaches for their owners. Like you said, I think there's Peterson, Bell, and Charles. Forte, to some degree. That's it. Right now, Devanta Freeman is the number one running back. DEVANTA FREEMAN!! Who wasn't even the team's starter. Chris Ivory has been great and he wasn't even a top ten preseason pick. Point is, there are very, very few start 'em and leave 'em running backs anymore. There's so much time sharing and 60 yard games that you're crossing your fingers that your guy scores a touchdown or two to get good RB production.

If Martin is never in there in red zone/goal line packages, then that's a major problem. Because his touchdown totals aren't going to improve very much. But if he is, then I think he'll end up being a very solid RB2 all season.

 

[Tau837]

I think bf makes a good point, and it is interesting to explore it. Martin to date (PPR):

Week 1 - RB44 (6.4 points) = RB4

Week 2 - RB19 (11.8 points) = RB2

Week 3 - RB54 (4.6 points) = RB5

Week 4 - RB4 (25.3 points) = RB1

That is the raw weekly performance data. It could be further refined, at least for weeks 1 and 3, to weed out the random performers who wouldn't have been started by anyone. For example, in week 3, here are some guys who outperformed him: Chris Thompson, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Jalston Fowler, Marcel Reece, Zach Line, Dexter McCluster, Jonas Gray. So his performance relative to startable players was functionally higher than RB54, although that may not matter much... 4.6 points is 4.6 points.

Is this really that much of an outlier? 6 of the current top 8 scoring fantasy RBs have had at least one week where they were a fantasy RB4 or worse. If your name isn't Jamal Charles or Le'Veon Bell you're probably going to have some down weeks quite a few times throughout the year.

My dumb ### has been starting Jonathan Stewart him all year, where every week is a down week. Time to get Martin in there and ride out the bad weeks with the good, I think.

That's essentially what I was getting at. I don't think Martin is an outlier. I doubt that it is easy to use a RBBC of players drafted after Martin or picked up from the waiver wire to beat Martin's performance, unless you happen to hit on a breakout player or just plain get lucky. bf didn't use these words, but that was my takeaway of what he was claiming.

 

[avina1]

I haven't watched many games from the Bucs, how has he actually looked? Has game script aFfected him weeks 1 thru 3?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The problem isn't that he's been inconsistent this year. It's that he's been inconsistent every year. There are tangible reasons. He's not that good. Tampa isn't that good. He may not be their starter all season.

Worse, it's really hard to play match-ups. 100 yards and a td in a loss to Carolina? Which match up do you think is a good one for him?

Maybe Winston gets better, and a rising tide lifts all boats. But the most obvious boat is Mike Evans, and he's a touchdown machine. That's not great for Martin, who really isn't. But maybe her gets more catches. Except they seem to be using Sims more.

For Martin to have a good season, he probably needs to get better individually, which is certainly possible - it's a contract year, and people talked him up since training camp. But we have years of evidence that he's just not talented enough to be good on a bad team. The bucs kind of agree, since they didn't pick up the option on his contract.

Sell while you can. This is the peak of his value.

I actually agree with you on a lot of points. If you read my earlier posts in this thread--you'll find that I've been so skeptical on Martin that I was labelled as being a "hater". My point of view is that Martin is a very hard guy to own because when you start him--he gets you a lot of RB4 type games--and when you bench him--he puts up an RB1 type game to give you hope. Once you chase that "hope"--he historically has reverted back to some of his RB4 type games again--and the cycle repeats. If Martin owners believe that he'll have a bad game this week (maybe 7-8 fantasy points or less in ppr formats)--then yes---they should look to sell him this week if possible.

However---if you are a Martin owner and believe that he'll have a decent game against the Jags--then you should definitely hold. If Martin has another solid game this week (I'd say 14 or more fantasy points in PPR formats)--his value will explode in the fantasy world. My best advice to Martin owners is not to project him for the rest of the season--as that is nearly impossible to predict for the unstable Bucs. Instead--try to project him and his outlook for this upcoming week--and use this projection to determine if you feel you should trade him now--or after week 4.

 

[addicted2ff]

The problem isn't that he's been inconsistent this year. It's that he's been inconsistent every year. There are tangible reasons. He's not that good. Tampa isn't that good. He may not be their starter all season.

Worse, it's really hard to play match-ups. 100 yards and a td in a loss to Carolina? Which match up do you think is a good one for him?

Maybe Winston gets better, and a rising tide lifts all boats. But the most obvious boat is Mike Evans, and he's a touchdown machine. That's not great for Martin, who really isn't. But maybe her gets more catches. Except they seem to be using Sims more.

For Martin to have a good season, he probably needs to get better individually, which is certainly possible - it's a contract year, and people talked him up since training camp. But we have years of evidence that he's just not talented enough to be good on a bad team. The bucs kind of agree, since they didn't pick up the option on his contract.

Sell while you can. This is the peak of his value.

I actually agree with you on a lot of points. If you read my earlier posts in this thread--you'll find that I've been so skeptical on Martin that I was labelled as being a "hater". My point of view is that Martin is a very hard guy to own because when you start him--he gets you a lot of RB4 type games--and when you bench him--he puts up an RB1 type game to give you hope. Once you chase that "hope"--he historically has reverted back to some of his RB4 type games again--and the cycle repeats. If Martin owners believe that he'll have a bad game this week (maybe 7-8 fantasy points or less in ppr formats)--then yes---they should look to sell him this week if possible.

However---if you are a Martin owner and believe that he'll have a decent game against the Jags--then you should definitely hold. If Martin has another solid game this week (I'd say 14 or more fantasy points in PPR formats)--his value will explode in the fantasy world. My best advice to Martin owners is not to project him for the rest of the season--as that is nearly impossible to predict for the unstable Bucs. Instead--try to project him and his outlook for this upcoming week--and use this projection to determine if you feel you should trade him now--or after week 4.

I tend to disagree about Martin being a hard guy to own.

Him, Hyde, Blount, ect. are easy to own because you just start them when game flow is projected to go one way and sit them when it's projected to go the opposite. Obviously this would mean that you shouldn't invest too much capital to acquire them since they shouldn't be an every week starter but when the situation looks favorable these guys have quite a bit of upside relative to other similar performing RBs. For example, in a standard league where you have to start 2 RBs, I would rather have Blount or Doug Martin as my RB3 than a Lamar Miller or a Jstew because there will be some weeks where Blount/Martin will have enough upside to feel comfortable starting them as an RB2 and can bail and sit them on the other weeks.

Martin is only a hard guy to own if you drafted weak at RB and are forced to rely on him as an RB2.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The problem isn't that he's been inconsistent this year. It's that he's been inconsistent every year. There are tangible reasons. He's not that good. Tampa isn't that good. He may not be their starter all season.

Worse, it's really hard to play match-ups. 100 yards and a td in a loss to Carolina? Which match up do you think is a good one for him?

Maybe Winston gets better, and a rising tide lifts all boats. But the most obvious boat is Mike Evans, and he's a touchdown machine. That's not great for Martin, who really isn't. But maybe her gets more catches. Except they seem to be using Sims more.

For Martin to have a good season, he probably needs to get better individually, which is certainly possible - it's a contract year, and people talked him up since training camp. But we have years of evidence that he's just not talented enough to be good on a bad team. The bucs kind of agree, since they didn't pick up the option on his contract.

Sell while you can. This is the peak of his value.

I actually agree with you on a lot of points. If you read my earlier posts in this thread--you'll find that I've been so skeptical on Martin that I was labelled as being a "hater". My point of view is that Martin is a very hard guy to own because when you start him--he gets you a lot of RB4 type games--and when you bench him--he puts up an RB1 type game to give you hope. Once you chase that "hope"--he historically has reverted back to some of his RB4 type games again--and the cycle repeats. If Martin owners believe that he'll have a bad game this week (maybe 7-8 fantasy points or less in ppr formats)--then yes---they should look to sell him this week if possible.

However---if you are a Martin owner and believe that he'll have a decent game against the Jags--then you should definitely hold. If Martin has another solid game this week (I'd say 14 or more fantasy points in PPR formats)--his value will explode in the fantasy world. My best advice to Martin owners is not to project him for the rest of the season--as that is nearly impossible to predict for the unstable Bucs. Instead--try to project him and his outlook for this upcoming week--and use this projection to determine if you feel you should trade him now--or after week 4.

I tend to disagree about Martin being a hard guy to own.

Him, Hyde, Blount, ect. are easy to own because you just start them when game flow is projected to go one way and sit them when it's projected to go the opposite. Obviously this would mean that you shouldn't invest too much capital to acquire them since they shouldn't be an every week starter but when the situation looks favorable these guys have quite a bit of upside relative to other similar performing RBs. For example, in a standard league where you have to start 2 RBs, I would rather have Blount or Doug Martin as my RB3 than a Lamar Miller or a Jstew because there will be some weeks where Blount/Martin will have enough upside to feel comfortable starting them as an RB2 and can bail and sit them on the other weeks.

Martin is only a hard guy to own if you drafted weak at RB and are forced to rely on him as an RB2.

I actually disagree with you big time solely in regards to your take on Martin in standard leagues. Standard leagues are very touchdown dependent--and Martin has had a total of like 4 td's in his last 20 games. In a standard league--at this point in time--if I had to choose between a guy like Miller or Doug--give me Lamar all day. I have more faith in Tannehill than I do Jameis--and I like Millers chance of turning it around this season under new coaching. With that being said- you do bring up some fair points.

 

[pantherclub]

I haven't watched many games from the Bucs, how has he actually looked? Has game script aFfected him weeks 1 thru 3?

I think he has ran extremely hard in the couple of games that I have seen. Especially in the Panther game he got a lot of yards after contact. I have said all along I think once Winston gets his sea legs and the Bucs figure out what it is exactly they are trying to do offensively that he will be a must start. I dont think they are there yet, but getting closer. I am starting him this week for the hell of it.

 

[JuniorNB]

I haven't watched many games from the Bucs, how has he actually looked? Has game script aFfected him weeks 1 thru 3?

I think he has ran extremely hard in the couple of games that I have seen. Especially in the Panther game he got a lot of yards after contact. I have said all along I think once Winston gets his sea legs and the Bucs figure out what it is exactly they are trying to do offensively that he will be a must start. I dont think they are there yet, but getting closer. I am starting him this week for the hell of it.

I do recall you saying that you are a Panther fan but could still see Martin having a nice game against Carolina. Good call. I wish I'd have listened to you.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Rb19 is not a rb2. It's a low end rb3. That's my whole point.

What kind of math they teaching you people up in Boston? Or maybe they stop teaching math after 2nd grade?

 

[JuniorNB]

Rb19 is not a rb2. It's a low end rb3. That's my whole point.

What kind of math they teaching you people up in Boston? Or maybe they stop teaching math after 2nd grade?

Maybe he's in a seven man league. That's the only way being RB19 is a low end RB3.

 

[bostonfred]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

 

[JuniorNB]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

With who? Guys like Matt Jones, Rawls, and Hillman? A week after they have a big game? Tell me about this piece-together theory of yours. Who's the piecemeal guy of the week this week?

 

[Tau837]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

1. You seem to be arguing that using RBBC is better than starting Martin all season. But how many people have Martin locked into their lineup every week? I suspect it's a low percentage of his owners. I own Martin and he is part of my RBBC.

2. I'd like to see you prove your contention that you are "usually" better off "piecing something together" than starting the guy who ends up as RB20 all year.

 

[Tau837]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

With who? Guys like Matt Jones, Rawls, and Hillman? A week after they have a big game? Tell me about this piece-together theory of yours. Who's the piecemeal guy of the week this week?

 

[matttyl]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

With who? Guys like Matt Jones, Rawls, and Hillman? A week after they have a big game? Tell me about this piece-together theory of yours. Who's the piecemeal guy of the week this week?

Dixon, Buffalo.

 

[bostonfred]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

With who? Guys like Matt Jones, Rawls, and Hillman? A week after they have a big game? Tell me about this piece-together theory of yours. Who's the piecemeal guy of the week this week?

It depends on your frame of reference. The opportunity cost of acquiring him is the guy you could have taken instead and the guy you took later who could/should be starting ahead of him. The opportunity cost of continuing to own him is whatever you could get for him right now, and that's obviously league dependent.

Based on adp

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rb.php

Devonta freeman, Chris Johnson, Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead, duke Johnson, gio Bernard, and maybe Rashad Jennings, cj spiller and Darren sproles. Not all of them will outperform Martin, of course. But that's 9 guys who are ok starts this week, who would have allowed you to get a better player earlier. Maybe a higher upside rb play than Martin, or maybe a better qb or receiver.

You might prefer starting Martin over almost all of those guys. Or at least this week because of the match up. But I'd contend that his match up last week looked bad on paper, and that there aren't many games that I expect to look good for the bucs right now. What is the value in the long run of playing match ups with a low upside guy on a bad team?

As for the opportunity cost, I saw him traded for a late 2016 first round pick in a 14 team non ppr dynasty. Give me the pick in a landslide.

 

[Kenny Powers]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

With who? Guys like Matt Jones, Rawls, and Hillman? A week after they have a big game? Tell me about this piece-together theory of yours. Who's the piecemeal guy of the week this week?

It depends on your frame of reference. The opportunity cost of acquiring him is the guy you could have taken instead and the guy you took later who could/should be starting ahead of him. The opportunity cost of continuing to own him is whatever you could get for him right now, and that's obviously league dependent.

Based on adp

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rb.php

Devonta freeman, Chris Johnson, Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead, duke Johnson, gio Bernard, and maybe Rashad Jennings, cj spiller and Darren sproles. Not all of them will outperform Martin, of course. But that's 9 guys who are ok starts this week, who would have allowed you to get a better player earlier. Maybe a higher upside rb play than Martin, or maybe a better qb or receiver.

You might prefer starting Martin over almost all of those guys. Or at least this week because of the match up. But I'd contend that his match up last week looked bad on paper, and that there aren't many games that I expect to look good for the bucs right now. What is the value in the long run of playing match ups with a low upside guy on a bad team?

As for the opportunity cost, I saw him traded for a late 2016 first round pick in a 14 team non ppr dynasty. Give me the pick in a landslide.

Dude, you should just stop in this thread if you aren't invested in Martin. Now you are just naming RBs who have had a nice, better than expected start to the season. Some of which dont even have more points than Martin. You really want to argue this week to week?

You could have this same argument every week vs a dozen or more RBs not named Martin. Just stop.

 

[JuniorNB]

The guy who ends the season as a borderline top 20 rb is rarely a guy you hope to have started all season. Usually you're better off piecing something together. Especially in a 7 team league.

With who? Guys like Matt Jones, Rawls, and Hillman? A week after they have a big game? Tell me about this piece-together theory of yours. Who's the piecemeal guy of the week this week?

It depends on your frame of reference. The opportunity cost of acquiring him is the guy you could have taken instead and the guy you took later who could/should be starting ahead of him. The opportunity cost of continuing to own him is whatever you could get for him right now, and that's obviously league dependent.Based on adp

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rb.php

Devonta freeman, Chris Johnson, Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead, duke Johnson, gio Bernard, and maybe Rashad Jennings, cj spiller and Darren sproles. Not all of them will outperform Martin, of course. But that's 9 guys who are ok starts this week, who would have allowed you to get a better player earlier. Maybe a higher upside rb play than Martin, or maybe a better qb or receiver.

You might prefer starting Martin over almost all of those guys. Or at least this week because of the match up. But I'd contend that his match up last week looked bad on paper, and that there aren't many games that I expect to look good for the bucs right now. What is the value in the long run of playing match ups with a low upside guy on a bad team?

As for the opportunity cost, I saw him traded for a late 2016 first round pick in a 14 team non ppr dynasty. Give me the pick in a landslide.

Dude, you should just stop in this thread if you aren't invested in Martin. Now you are just naming RBs who have had a nice, better than expected start to the season. Some of which dont even have more points than Martin. You really want to argue this week to week?

You could have this same argument every week vs a dozen or more RBs not named Martin. Just stop.

lol. I didn't even bother responding. It was gibberish.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Awesome idea. How much will Dion Lewis cost me on the WW this week? Definitely seems like a good "piece together" spot starter type.

 

[shadyridr]

You guys are all getting fished

 

[Hankmoody]

The Suckaneers should have drafted an offensive linemen instead of The Crabman.

No

They should have taken Mariota. Or traded down. They could have drafted a lineman and gotten a number one this year. I bet the Jets would have done that.

They could have taken Mariotta, but you don't walk out of that draft with your team a train wreck and not at least take a shot at a franchise QB. Trading down would not have been the move.

That's what I would have done. Taken Mariota.

Mariota is 1-2 and gave away the game against the Colts. Stop.

Yep that's is screw Mariotta, may as well trade him for a 7th and draft another QB next year.

Genius.

 

[JuniorNB]

You guys are all getting fished

You mean the RB19 isn't really a low end RB3? LolAt least you gave him an out. He can claim he was just fishing now. Always nice to have a safety net after getting destroyed.

 

[FF Ninja]

Between Winston and the offensive line, it is kind of amazing he's doing anything at all: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/10/07/ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-entering-week-5/

Apparently the offensive line has managed to get worse than last year. They currently rank 31st in run blocking. Maybe the unit will gel as the season progresses (or improve when Evan Smith returns from ankle injury). The good news is that what we've seen the past 4 weeks is Doug's likely floor and he's still outproduced his ADP, so it looks like the troll was just as uninformed as we thought. Looking forward to his "but but but look at the last two years. And inconsistent!" rebuttal.

 

[bostonfred]

Last year, rb 19 had 943 yards and 7 tds. That's 136.3 fantasy points in non ppr, or 8.3 points per week.

But 8.3 points per week was only good for rb30 on a points per game basis, and functionally, was even worse than that. Why?

The answer that should be obvious is that at least 11 running backs scored more than 8.3 ppg, but ended up getting hurt, or suspended, or didn't start the season as a starter. Cj Anderson, for example, had 1173 yards and 10 tds in 16 games. But he wasn't even a starter the first 8 weeks of the season. On a ppg basis, he was a little over 11, but nobody started him until hillman got hurt, and then he had over 1000/10 the final 8 games. So realistically, he was more like a 20 ppg player, not 11 ppg.

That's exceptional. But it's not unusual. Ok, maybe 20 ppg is unusual, but the idea that a guy would score like a high end rb1 for a short stretch isn't. It's the rule, not the exception. On a ppg basis, over 30 players last year outscored the guy who ended up rb19. So rb19 wasnt actually a rb2. It was a low end rb3.

Which brings me to the question, how many running backs should I project to outscore 943/7? The answer should be more than 19. Assuming perfect health, lots of backs should get more than that total, even though we know some players will get hurt. Unless you can project which players will get hurt, it does little good to arbitrarily lower our projections to what we think the final results will be. Remember, rb19 scored 8.3 ppg, but over 30 players scored 8.3 ppg or better.

And if we project lots of players to get more than 8.3 ppg, then 8.3 ppg isn't really that good.

Of course, we don't know which players will score more than 8.3 ppg, or for how long. It would have been silly to project Jonas gray to average 200 yards a game, for example, even though he only showed up on the radar briefly last year. So while it's nice to know that there will be lots of rbs who score well each week, how do we use that information?

We use a different baseline. Instead of thinking of 8.3 ppg as rb19, we look at the weekly value of a replacement player. If I didn't have an 8.3 ppg player on my roster this week, could I scrape together something that would be close? If so, then the value of players projected to be beat the baseline is much lower than a similar player who, if called into action, might score 10 or more ppg. For example, we all know that Ronnie hillman, Thomas Rawls, and other backup rbs see an immediate spike in value if their starter gets hurt or is ineffective. We didn't know that Cj Anderson would stink or that lynch would get hurt, but we knew that some players would get hurt and that their backups value would go up if they did. And for a short time, these "temp" players would have a better value over replacement than a guy initially projected to score 8.4 or 8.5 ppg.

What does that have to do with Doug Martin? Well, we have over three years of data on Martin, and for the most part, he's been an up and down player even when healthy. We knew he was capable of some good games and some bad ones, but unless you have specific reason to expect more good games this year than usual, he was probably going to have a few good ones sandwiched between a lot of bad ones, and end up somewhere in the "low end rb3" tier himself (last year, he was rb42). In other words, he's a replacement level player.

If we expect him to be a replacement level player, then all we really get from drafting him is a guy who will give us that 8.3 ppg until one of our scrubs gets his chance.

And while we can't predict which scrubs will get their chance, we can predict that many will, and that we will get some of them, and that having more scrubs on the roster gives us a better chance of having the winning lottery ticket.

But again, how do we use that information? By drafting qb, wr and te help instead of replacement level rbs. Obviously those players can bust or get hurt too, but they don't get hurt at the rate that rbs do, so when you draft those positions early, it's in the hope of getting full season starters, and when you back them up, it's in the hope that your backup to a Matt Stafford will be an Andy Dalton. You increase your chance of having a good starter.

Drafting replacement level rbs when you could have improved your starters at other positions us a fundamental mistake. If you get a guy who scores 8.1 ppg a couple rounds later, or 7.2, or whatever, they can holds down the fort until your lottery tickets hit. And by drafting other positions earlier, you need less depth at them, so you get fewer Ted ginns, but you have a better chance at a Dion Lewis.

 

[Grahamburn]

You guys are all getting fished

He's putting a lot of work into it though.

 

[bostonfred]

So when planning a redraft, what adjustment should I make? Don't draft players who are replacement level guys early. If you're drafting a rb early, it should be a guy who you project to be top ten. If you're drafting a mid tier rb, pick a guy who can put up top ten numbers for an extended period but might not start the whole season, not a guy who you project at rb19 by the end of the season.

There was reason to think martin might have good games this year, but he'salways had good games. Unless you project him to have more good games, more predictable good games, or to have a higher floor each week, he's a replacement level player or worse. From that viewpoint, tevin Coleman and Darren mcfadden were more valuable than Doug Martin in the draft, and if you drafted properly, taking a guy late who can spot start when needed, both are probably still more valuable because they could emerge as rb1s.

I'm not advocating for those two guys specifically. I'm specifically naming guys who didn't hit, or at least who haven't hit yet, to explain the paradigm.

If you already have Martin, what should you do? Trade him after a good game like he just had. Some examples of trades which are philosophically correct even if they don't work out would be:

Martin for Randle or hillman - you might not like those guys specifically, or might not think this is a fair trade, so ignore the specific player names. Try to get guys that are perceived as high risk, sell high types, but have a high ceiling if things go well.

Martin and Leonard hankerson for Allen Robinson and James starks. Trade up at wr, and get the higher upside lottery ticket.

Martin and a dead roster spot for Christine Michael and David Johnson. Two lottery tickets who are higher probability because they could emerge with or without injury to their starters. (I'm not a fan of Michael, but you can't have a thread here without mentioning him)

Martin for a draft pick (dynasty) - get the best pick you can after a good week to lock in the draft capital so you can spend it later.

 

[shadyridr]

You guys are all getting fished

He's putting a lot of work into it though.

This thread is fairly useless at this point.

 

[bostonfred]

What a shame. I was being serious. I think this concept is one of the few remaining edges in the game today.

 

[shadyridr]

Perhaps but not sure it belongs in a Doug Martin thread as it seems more a strategy topic. I gotta be honest with you I thought you were fishing and have been just passing your latest posts as they seem pretty worthless regarding Doug Martin. Bottom line is the guy is an RB2. Nobody will sell you anything good for him. Most RB2s are matchup dependent. You play them in good matchups and hope they do well. Thats all. Im starting him this week vs Jax and hope he does well. I can see sitting him if you have better options. Nobody will trade you much for him.

 

[Quez]

Mankins may be out. It's not gonna look good for Martin or Winston today.

 

[Tau837]

What a shame. I was being serious. I think this concept is one of the few remaining edges in the game today.

You have expended a lot of effort to basically argue two things:

1. Don't draft a player like Martin too early, when you can still get better talent at other positions.

2. Don't expect Martin to perform better than RBBC.

Point 1 is irrelevant to those who didn't draft Martin at all, but rather picked him up as a free agent. It is also irrelevant to those who own him in dynasty leagues that have been in existence for a long time.

Point 2 is irrelevant to those who own Martin but already use him as part of RBBC. It is also irrelevant to those in leagues in which it isn't easy to pick up startable RBs off the waiver wire, whether due to deep rosters, low waiver priority, or other reasons.

It just doesn't seem that your argument is very applicable to most people.

 

[The General]

We have faith in Doug this week to follow up last week's success?

I doubted him and it cost me the win.

Him or Rawls?

 

[Grahamburn]

We have faith in Doug this week to follow up last week's success?

I doubted him and it cost me the win.

Him or Rawls?

The Bucs should be able to keep this game close. The Jaguars defense has been pretty good against the run, but I think they're pretty banged up on that side of the ball? Doug should get his 20 touches and have a 50/50 shot at a TD.

 

[Grahamburn]

[SIZE=10pt]By Roy Cummings | Tribune Staff[/SIZE]

Published: October 10, 2015

There were days this past July when Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin wished he had followed coach Lovie Smith’s advice and put football up on a shelf somewhere and gone kayaking or hiking.

Tuesdays and Thursdays, in particular, were such days.

Known as “leg days’’ at the Proactive Sports Performance training complex in Santa Ana, California, those were the days Martin spent trying to replenish the power in the legs that betrayed him the past two years.

“Yeah, leg days were the toughest,” Martin said of the physical grind he put himself through during his last few weeks of freedom before the start of training camp. “It was definitely one of the most challenging things I’ve ever done.’’

The payoff is evident. Martin, who ran for a season-high 106 yards last week against the Carolina Panthers, enters Sunday’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars tied for eighth in the NFL in rushing with 282 yards.

The challenge of “leg day” was to make it through a non-stop, 90-minute, high-intensity workout that grew more taxing with each passing station. It literally left Martin gasping for air at the end.

The workout began ordinarily enough, with a steady jog on a treadmill, but quickly advanced to a rapid five-flight stair climb. Its coup de grace, though, was a far more unconventional test that seemed like it was culled from a strong-man competition.

Strapped into an upper-body harness tethered to a truck tire the likes of which you’d find on a bulldozer, Martin’s objective was to pull the tire and the 300 pounds of weight he added to it 25 yards for at least five minutes.

“You’d do a few of those and then it was back to the treadmill,’’ Martin said. “The fact it’s so fast paced really gets you into great shape, and I can tell that all that work is really paying off for me right now, especially those tire drills.’’

Martin has 10 runs of 10 yards or more, including a season-best 24-yard run last week. He’s also hard to bring down. His 164 yards after contact, more than half of his total rushing yards, rank seventh in the NFL.

“Doug is bringing to the games exactly what we see from him in practice every day,’’ Bucs offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter said. “He’s running hard and breaking tackles, and it’s great when you have a running back make yards on his own like that and doing it with power the way Doug is.’’

The power level is one Martin hasn’t reached since his 2012 rookie season, when he ran for 1,454 yards and went to the Pro Bowl. He had 1,005 yards after contract, and finished tied for sixth in the league with an average of 3.2-yards after contact.

Martin still has a ways to go to reach that level. He’s averaging 2.5 yards after contact per carry this year. But that’s an improvement over the 2.1 yards he averged over the past two seasons.

“The difference is, I’m healthy,’’ said Martin, who had a shoulder in jury in 2013 and ankle and knee injuries last season. “But right now I feel pretty good. I’m running with confidence again.’’

He’s running with purpose, too.

After watching Martin gain fewer than 500 yards each of the last two years, the Bucs opted not to pick up the fifth-year option on his contract, a choice that will make him an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

The move was primarily financial. Had the Bucs exercised the option, Martin would have been guaranteed, against injury, a $5.621 million salary for 2015. Martin will make $1.315 million this year.

But Martin insists the contract is not his greatest motivating factor. Rather, he said, it is his desire to prove the 2012 season, when his 1,926 total yards ranked third all-time for a rookie, wasn’t a fluke.

“I knew that if I did everything in my power to get back into shape and be at my best and just stayed healthy, everything else would fall into place for me,’’ Martin said. “That’s why I went back to California ... and did those workouts. I knew I’d be able to get into the best shape possible there. And there are times now after a run where I’ve broken some tackles and gained a few extra yards where I sort of think to myself, ‘Yeah, that’s those tire drills paying off.’’’

But the payoff includes more than just extra yards after contact. It also includes extra yards gained by avoiding tackles, both as a runner and a pass catcher.

Along with the power in his legs, Martin also lost much of his lateral quickness and agility the past two years. But it seems his late offseason workouts have allowed him to regain those skills, as well.

Martin ranks third in the league in missed tackles with 16, including 13 as a runner. The byproduct of those missed tackles is 341 total yards, which ranks eighth in the NFC and 20th in the NFL.

“He’s definitely back to his old form,’’ Jaguars coach Gus Bradley said. “He’s just a different kind of back, with a different kind of style, really. He has great strength, great speed and he puts a lot of pressure on a defense because it just seems that the more he goes, the stronger and stronger he gets.’’

 

[duaneok66]

thank you - great story.

 

[Tau837]

I would say that is a great story, if it weren't for the fact that we have 3 years of evidence on Martin and thus already know exactly what to expect from him.