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RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Agree with that. Sims is fine, but he's not cut out for a #1 role. If Doug wants $9M per I'd prefer he get a long term deal elsewhere.
I don't think you do as like a final decision, but he may not be so ya gotta head into the offseason needing a #1 rather than being stuck
I think Martin returns and is just getting a sense of the market.
I'd be curious if the Titans signed him. Robinson isn't showing his hand at all.
It''d be more Titan-esque or Pats style to get a more affordable guy.
They have a lot of holes that need to be filled with big talent and can't keep getting filled with marginal guys. They're all set with those types.
They've got a whole chicken or egg thing going with the poor OL. Suppose they get Elliot, they'll have two (draft day) top backs and Cobb who so many love(I don't) and then Andrews who just seems to work harder than anyone. That's an awful lot to be sitting behind a weak OL.
Robinson will fill some holes in free agency and it should clear things up some.
The Bucs are in a sweet spot having their RB, QB, WR all set for the future. I even like their TE (if he gets a personal trainer) and backup RB Sims and...I don't think the Bucs want to switch spots with the Titans.
Then we're going Walker, Mariota, DGB, etc are all set for the future. Nah I think it's about building upon what they have and making progress.
Keep Martin and then put everything on the shoulders of the OL. They've got the skill positions, give em the time or holes they need to produce.
Couple of franchises that don't always make the best decisions, but IMO Martin is an obvious re-sign. If they have the cap room and want some time on Sims then they can franchise him to buy a year of time.
I'd be curious if the Titans signed him. Robinson isn't showing his hand at all.
It''d be more Titan-esque or Pats style to get a more affordable guy.
They have a lot of holes that need to be filled with big talent and can't keep getting filled with marginal guys. They're all set with those types.
They've got a whole chicken or egg thing going with the poor OL. Suppose they get Elliot, they'll have two (draft day) top backs and Cobb who so many love(I don't) and then Andrews who just seems to work harder than anyone. That's an awful lot to be sitting behind a weak OL.
Robinson will fill some holes in free agency and it should clear things up some.
The Bucs are in a sweet spot having their RB, QB, WR all set for the future. I even like their TE (if he gets a personal trainer) and backup RB Sims and...I don't think the Bucs want to switch spots with the Titans.
Then we're going Walker, Mariota, DGB, etc are all set for the future. Nah I think it's about building upon what they have and making progress.
Keep Martin and then put everything on the shoulders of the OL. They've got the skill positions, give em the time or holes they need to produce.
Couple of franchises that don't always make the best decisions, but IMO Martin is an obvious re-sign. If they have the cap room and want some time on Sims then they can franchise him to buy a year of time.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah I'm with you on this one. Lost in Doug Martin's great season was that Sims looked pretty darn good this year as well. It's almost as if the line/QB play improved significantly this year and both backs were able to flourish.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I don't think he is the runner Doug is yet but he has over a 1000 yards from scrimmage with significantly less touches. I don't want to lose Doug, but Sims and another FA or draft pick isn't a bad fallback plan either. Doug had almost 3 times the carries but they both averaged 4.9 ypc.
That said, hopefully they make it work.
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msommer
Footballguy
Don't back up running backs often have higher ypc than the lead back? Thus leading to 'controversies' (except when the lead back is Trent Richardson)
Capella
Footballguy
Maybe? I dunno. I have no doubt Doug is better but Sims had 12-13 touches per game iirc and has shown plenty. I don't think Doug is 11M better though.
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msommer
Footballguy
Agreed. Don't think he'll get LeSean or AP money, or even DeMarco Murray money though. If he's lucky he'll sniff 5-6m per
Don't back up running backs often have higher ypc than the lead back? Thus leading to 'controversies' (except when the lead back is Trent Richardson)
Yes. I'm sure there are lots of reasons for this, but one is that backups are often facing defenses which are playing the pass. Doug was on the field for 622 snaps and ran the ball 288 times, or 46%. Sims was on the field 457 snaps and ran the ball 107 times, or 23%. If you are a defensive coordinator, are you going to play them the same?
But let's just ignore that aspect for a moment. Doug had 41 carries for 237 (5.8 ypc) while trailing big, whereas Sims had 23 for 179 (7.8 ypc). So just removing garbage time, Doug's ypc is 4.72 while Sims is 4.17.
33% of Sims' carries came in the 4th quarter when the defense was either tired and/or playing prevent, whereas only 17% of Doug's carries came in the 4th quarter.
A sample size of 107 just isn't all that large. Eliminating his long run of 59 yards drops his ypc to 4.4. Eliminating Doug's 84 yard run only drops him to 4.6 ypc.
So yeah, I wouldn't put too much stock into the fact that they both had the same ypc.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Still think the Bucs should just go ahead and franchise him. If he doesn't sign the long term deal you want him to after getting the tag then so be it. He's 27. You pay him $11M and ride him for one more season and then draft one of the several elite RB prospects in the 2017 draft.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
No, they definitely don't. I'm putting a lot of trust in Jason Licht to be "smart" here. There have been plenty of reports, another today, stating the Bucs will not be using the tag on him. Dumb.
The worst case scenario for Tampa is letting him test free agency and having some crazy team give him a DeMarco Murray contract, which will happen on the open market. Unless that team is Tampa. I guess that's worse.
Capella
Footballguy
I really don't think Doug is worth a huge contract. Yes he was amazing in 12 and 15 but the other two years were so bad the Bucs didn't even pick up his option. It's way too convenient for people to say he was just hurt those entire two years. I don't buy that.
I I think he was motivated this year, he played his ### off and somebody is likely going to buy sky high. I think we may have seen his best. Hope I'm wrong.
I I think he was motivated this year, he played his ### off and somebody is likely going to buy sky high. I think we may have seen his best. Hope I'm wrong.
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I watched a lot of him in '12 and wasn't impressed. From what I recall reading last year he really dedicated himself to the game and got serious about training. If that dedication lasts then I think he has a great chance of being a top 3 back next season. As for the reasons why he was terrible in '13 and '14, I think it can be summed up as (1) terrible offense (2) dysfunctional team (3) poor conditioning (4) injury
That old quote about a rising tide lifts all boats works in reverse as well. That whole team was bad in '13 and '14. Schiano is a putz and Lovie's first season was a 2-14 disaster.
I don't think Doug is one of the most talented RBs in the NFL, but if Koetter can take the next step with this offense then he could be an elite fantasy back. To be an elite fantasy back you really only need two of three: talent, opportunity, situation.
They were 20th in ppg and 5th in yards last year. If they can take some pressure off the running game via an improved passing attack and/or get him some more scoring opportunities in year 2 (11 rushes, 0 targets inside the 5 last year), then the situation will be great.
He got 72% of the RB carries and 100% of the RB rushing TDs, so I'm going to say the opportunity will qualify as great as well.
So I think there is a good chance he improves upon last year if he stays. That being said, I wouldn't sign him to a huge contract, either.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Lesser of two evils then?
The Bucs have plenty of cap room. A franchise tag on Doug wouldn't hinder them from signing anyone else they may target. It gives them exclusive negotiating rights to him during that period. It gives Martin the exact same incentive to stay in shape that he had entering 2015. If he's looking to "hit the jackpot" or "break the bank" in free agency as it has been reported it makes sense for the Bucs to keep him off the open market entirely. The 2017 draft is absolutely loaded with RB talent. Overpaying for one year of Doug and then drafting his replacement makes a lot more sense than overpaying for four years and passing on Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Samaje Perine, Kelvin Taylor, Royce Freeman, etc.
In my mind the franchise tag is definitely a smart move here assuming they can't sign him to a reasonable contract. The Bucs have too many other holes to be stingy with Doug, mess around, lose him, and then feel the necessity of drafting someone at the position this year in a weak RB draft.
With Martin not tagged, and not yet re-signing with TB, what are the best/worst landing spots for him, FF-speaking? Personally, I'm not discussing teams like Minny, KC, Pitt, etc that don't look to be in the market for a big-$$, FA RB.
Teams that could be in the RB FA market: Baltimore (they just signed Trent, so they must have some interest in RBs-unless they plan to convert him to an OL), Cleveland, Chicago (although I believe they want Langford to take the role) Dallas, Houston, Indy (Gore is signed for 2 years, but he'll be 33 in May, & didn't look great in 15), NE, NYJ (depending on what they do with Ivory, Powell, Ridley), Oak (Murray has 1 year left, but Del Rio didn't seem too happy with their run game after the season), & Tenn.
Best: Dallas-obviously, this would be a FF owner's wet-dream come true. Martin behind that O-line, with only McFadden (currently) as the real "threat" to RB duties. McFadden would make a fairly safe handcuff, as well. I would expect (assuming health) 300-350 touches (rush+rec). He'd also be less likely to get GL TDs stolen by Romo, like he did with Jameis in '15. Houston could be good, but their O-line wasn't that impressive, IMO, in '15. Indy could be an explosive offense if Luck returns to health; if Martin were to be the RB1, that would be juicy, FF-speaking.
Worst: Tennessee-their O-line didn't look good, but was it actually the RBs? Baltimore-I think it would be too much of a RBBC, with Forsett & Allen still there (likely). NE-with Lewis in NE, & BB's game-to-game offensive shifts, I wouldn't want Martin in NE, as a FF-owner (if I were a NE fan, I would probably be in favor of it, but I think he'll want more $$ then they'd offer).
Teams that could be in the RB FA market: Baltimore (they just signed Trent, so they must have some interest in RBs-unless they plan to convert him to an OL), Cleveland, Chicago (although I believe they want Langford to take the role) Dallas, Houston, Indy (Gore is signed for 2 years, but he'll be 33 in May, & didn't look great in 15), NE, NYJ (depending on what they do with Ivory, Powell, Ridley), Oak (Murray has 1 year left, but Del Rio didn't seem too happy with their run game after the season), & Tenn.
Best: Dallas-obviously, this would be a FF owner's wet-dream come true. Martin behind that O-line, with only McFadden (currently) as the real "threat" to RB duties. McFadden would make a fairly safe handcuff, as well. I would expect (assuming health) 300-350 touches (rush+rec). He'd also be less likely to get GL TDs stolen by Romo, like he did with Jameis in '15. Houston could be good, but their O-line wasn't that impressive, IMO, in '15. Indy could be an explosive offense if Luck returns to health; if Martin were to be the RB1, that would be juicy, FF-speaking.
Worst: Tennessee-their O-line didn't look good, but was it actually the RBs? Baltimore-I think it would be too much of a RBBC, with Forsett & Allen still there (likely). NE-with Lewis in NE, & BB's game-to-game offensive shifts, I wouldn't want Martin in NE, as a FF-owner (if I were a NE fan, I would probably be in favor of it, but I think he'll want more $$ then they'd offer).
Also, IF TB doesn't re-sign Martin, what do TB homers think the chances of them selecting Henry with their 2nd round pick?
His biggest "negative" seems to be that he isn't a pass-catching threat; with Sims already on the roster, they have that role filled. Would Henry be a good/possible pick?
His biggest "negative" seems to be that he isn't a pass-catching threat; with Sims already on the roster, they have that role filled. Would Henry be a good/possible pick?
Tau837
Footballguy
Based on some of @Anarchy99's posts, I don't think NE has the cap space to sign Martin at his likely price. Maybe he can post on this.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I kind of like the new alert system. It alerted me to this thread.
The Pats don't have a ton of cap room as currently constituted. Extending Brady and Mayo retiring will free up some money. They have some players that they can cut or redo their contracts to shave some cap dollars. However, I project they will devote the savings to the defensive side of the ball as CB Butler, CB Ryan, LB Collins, LB Hightower, and DE Jones all have only one year left on their contracts.
RB Blount is interested in returning and it appears the team wants him back. Between Blount and Lewis, NE will have to pay next to nothing for RBs. The Pats could afford to pay more for a RB, but I don't see them shelling out more than $2-3 million a year for one. They paid Dillion a big chunk of change when he was playing, but that was ten years ago. Since then, they have not invested many dollars in the RB position.
The Pats may explore other RBs in the offseason (lots of people are suggesting that they will kick the tires on Matt Forte), but I don't see them offering any RB top dollar.
The Pats don't have a ton of cap room as currently constituted. Extending Brady and Mayo retiring will free up some money. They have some players that they can cut or redo their contracts to shave some cap dollars. However, I project they will devote the savings to the defensive side of the ball as CB Butler, CB Ryan, LB Collins, LB Hightower, and DE Jones all have only one year left on their contracts.
RB Blount is interested in returning and it appears the team wants him back. Between Blount and Lewis, NE will have to pay next to nothing for RBs. The Pats could afford to pay more for a RB, but I don't see them shelling out more than $2-3 million a year for one. They paid Dillion a big chunk of change when he was playing, but that was ten years ago. Since then, they have not invested many dollars in the RB position.
The Pats may explore other RBs in the offseason (lots of people are suggesting that they will kick the tires on Matt Forte), but I don't see them offering any RB top dollar.
I agree with the bolded; I'm not familiar with NE's cap situation, but it has seemed like they don't devote lots of money to the RB situation, at least not since Dillon was there.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Licht comes from the NE school of thought when it comes to the RB position, which could be the main reason why Doug Martin is likely on his way out of town.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE won the Super Bowl in 2014 and did not have anyone with 100 carries on the season. IIRC, Ridley was the highest paid player in the backfield with a salary of $775K. I believe the total allocation for their RB corps (Vereen, Ridley, Bolden, Develin, Gray, and Blount) was about $4-5 million in total cap charges.
The Pats haven't invested a lot in RBs lately, but they probably should work on building up their ground game if they want to keep Brady walking without a cane. They have only 3 backs signed so far for next year (Bloden, Lewis, and White) that carry a combined $3 million in cap space for this season.
The Pats haven't invested a lot in RBs lately, but they probably should work on building up their ground game if they want to keep Brady walking without a cane. They have only 3 backs signed so far for next year (Bloden, Lewis, and White) that carry a combined $3 million in cap space for this season.
In the 2nd, he's a nice pick. It seems like the draft world thinks he's a highly questionable first but a gem in the 2nd.
You could make a obvious case for a few teams before them taking him like Titans and Cowboys or other teams grabbing him as BPA. I don't think he makes it to them
Grahamburn
Footballguy
All the more reason why the Bucs should have franchised Doug at the bare minimum. Now they have to spend an early-ish pick on a RB in a weak RB draft to replace Martin when they have several holes to fill on defense.
I'll do my best to reserve judgement pending free agency and the draft, but right now this feels like a big mistake if he walks.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
That's pretty much what I'm hoping for at this point. The "Revis Strategy." 
Capella
Footballguy
Yea. I like Doug but he is likely going to get crazy overpaid.That's pretty much what I'm hoping for at this point. The "Revis Strategy."
This was my thinking on the matter:
I doubt Baltimore is a serious contender, but I like that landing spot more than you. For one, isn't Forsett a FA? If they pay for Doug, I don't see why they'd bring back an old Forsett.
Forsett signed a 3 year, $9M contract last off-season. I'm not sure how it's structured, or how "cuttable" he is, but I'm pretty sure that Harbaugh made some recent comment about how he's not going to be a cap casualty. I know they liked Allen before last year, not sure if that has changed since then.
As far as FF goes, Martin was in a decent situation, IMO, in TB. The line seemed to be improved from '14, and he got a good amount of carries. The 2 negatives were Winston's GL vulturing, and Sims' 3rd down duties. I was thinking about situations where he wouldn't have to deal with those issues.
IF Gore is cut & he goes to Indy, those boxes should be checked (although Luck scored a few rush TDs every year before last).
If he goes to Dallas, those boxes should be checked.
If he goes to Miami, I would think he'd have to deal with Ajayi, at least as a 3rd-down RB. I personally think the Jets will bring back Powell and possibly Ivory too. He'd likely have Powell taking 3rd down duties in NYJ.
I know Dallas' run numbers were down, but that O-line is pretty much the same as it was in '14; if Romo is healthy & Martin is there in '16, I think that's his best FF outcome, followed by Indy (assuming Gore cut and Luck healthy; some O-line improvements wouldn't hurt either), then Houston (just because I'd expect him to be a 3-down RB & they are incredibly rare in today's NFL).
Oh, for some reason I was thinking Forsett was unlikely back in 2016. Not sure where I got that idea. I'd still expect the talent gap to mean that Martin would get a lot of touches in Trestman's system.
I agree that TB was a decent situation last year and I think it should be improved this coming season.
Man, I don't see any way Gore isn't cut. But hopefully they invest in OL if Martin goes there. I don't think Martin is good enough to create something from nothing.
I agree about Dallas. Top situation for Martin if Romo can stay healthy.
Ajayi is pretty unproven. Wouldn't worry about him much if the new coaching staff talks the GM into paying for Martin.
I think the Jets should bring back Ivory and Powell. If they don't, though, then the Jets become a great landing spot.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Jets have very little cap room. I don't think they bring in Martin. I think they re-sign Powell and perhaps draft a back if they don't get a RB on the cheap (Alfred Morris?).
Yeah, I didn't look into cap situations when making my original list. If I was the Jets, I definitely wouldn't be throwing big money at the RB position. Morris or Ivory with Powell would be the prudent move for them.
Colts seem unlikely as well, they have some Cap Room but also have a number of FA's and a giant Andrew Luck extension looming.
Martin is leaving Tampa IMO, there are some very bad teams out there with GIANT war chests of cap room. He's is going to cash in big time, pretty much every FA will this year. Edit: Although Tampa is one of them too.
Martin is leaving Tampa IMO, there are some very bad teams out there with GIANT war chests of cap room. He's is going to cash in big time, pretty much every FA will this year. Edit: Although Tampa is one of them too.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
I think he's gone too. Best of luck to him. Tampa was probably best for his fantasy prospects.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Ian Rapoport ?@RapSheet 32s33 seconds ago
More on #Bucs RB Doug Martin's 5-year, $35.75M deal: $15M guaranteed and $7.25 average over three years. Max value of the deal is $42.5M
More on #Bucs RB Doug Martin's 5-year, $35.75M deal: $15M guaranteed and $7.25 average over three years. Max value of the deal is $42.5M
mjb03003
Footballguy
As a dynasty owner, I'm glad he's staying put. Yes, Sims is a drain on his PPR value, but Martin was elite last year (yards after contact, missed tackles, etc...) and Koetter loves him. He'll get the ball plenty, and hopefully if the Bucs improve, they won't be forced into catch-up mode quite as often, and Martin can stay on the field.
I also think having a good backup/change of pace is not always the worst thing for a RB's shelf life...helps keep him fresh.
I also think having a good backup/change of pace is not always the worst thing for a RB's shelf life...helps keep him fresh.
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matttyl
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Really happy with the deal and think he probably took a little less than he could have made elsewhere to stay in Tampa. I thought he'd get a lot more than $15M guaranteed.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I as well. Sometimes we get into a "grass is always greener on the other side" mentality, but after last year it is hard to argue that Martin won't be a RB1 in TB if healthy.
Quez
Footballguy
I'm wasn't surprised they resigned him after they kept Vjax for 10mil for 1 year. Overpaying for free agents hasn't worked, so let's try overpaying for our own guys.
I'm a member of the "don't pay big $$$ to RBs" camp, so I don't like the move. However, I do think we got a bargain compared to what Ivory & Miller got.
I'm a member of the "don't pay big $$$ to RBs" camp, so I don't like the move. However, I do think we got a bargain compared to what Ivory & Miller got.
